Stats

Premises1 Sep10completeUTC dailyfalls BTC-2.2323%,ETH-1.2519%,SOL-2.9059%; closes76535.875/2436.8075/98.6025 remainaboveSMA50and200. 2 Prior20dayhighs82233.5025/2565.9/110.5357 exceedcurrentcloses; dailyandlatestcompletedhourlysignalsfalse. 3 ATR14percent2.98366/3.61184/5.04558%; a2ATRriskunitimpliesstopdistances5.9673/7.2237/10.0912%, targets6ATR17.902/21.671/30.273%gross. Conclusion bullishlongerregime can coexistwithshorterweakness; noactualentryorstopreset. Strongestbearcase loss ofrecent10daylows76222.3285/2355.79/97.132857 could extenddrawdown; thesearetechnicalcontext,notauthorizedstoporders. Soundness: range/sourceaggregation andmissinghours matter; target3Rgrossbelow3Rnetaftercosts, andtrailingpolicyunvalidated. 2026dailycorrelations .879–.912 mean3positionswould largely be one riskfactor. NohalfKellydeploymentwithoutpresentruleandsoundexecution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots .

Frozen2086/2089 before results: close>prior20day high, exit close<prior10daylow,2ATR14stop/6ATRtarget,20daytimeout, nextactualopen; hourlyrolling480/240h, completed-dailyATRknownbeforeuse. No partials/trailing, thus diagnostic not currentliveexitpolicy. Vectorbtlongonly;fees25bpside onreceivedasset,slip10bpbase20stress. 2024-25train,2026Jan1-Sep10holdout alreadyreusedbybroaderresearch; no parameterselection. Premises1 hourlytrain 7.389004% N12, holdout -2.192042%,stress -3.358726%. 2 Supplieddailyholdout -20.758684%,matched/reconstructed -7.586258%; maskcontrol isolatescoverageeffect. 3 No present daily/hourlysignal; N6 holdout meanCI[-6.472458,8.335059]% crosses0. Conclusion reject present allocation; dailynegative and stressed hourlyperformance insufficient. Validity conditional on sampledquotes/costmodel; soundness limited by reusedholdout,missingbars,correlatedtrades and differentvenueexitcadence. Strongestcounterexample newregime/execution can change results, not evidence ofcurrententry. Mathematical halfKelly 0.0019008411572001005 is binary-average payoff approximation, not authorizedallocation. Portfolio totals unchanged by equity-denominator correction; all52savedholdouttrades reconcile2.84e-14pp. Neighbors10/30days sensitivity only. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Frozen2086/2089 before results: close>prior20day high, exit close<prior10daylow,2ATR14stop/6ATRtarget,20daytimeout, nextactualopen; hourlyrolling480/240h, completed-dailyATRknownbeforeuse. No partials/trailing, thus diagnostic not currentliveexitpolicy. Vectorbtlongonly;fees25bpside onreceivedasset,slip10bpbase20stress. 2024-25train,2026Jan1-Sep10holdout alreadyreusedbybroaderresearch; no parameterselection. Premises1 hourlytrain 61.457476% N19, holdout 23.420985%,stress 21.948781%. 2 Supplieddailyholdout -17.632466%,matched/reconstructed -6.406080%; maskcontrol isolatescoverageeffect. 3 No present daily/hourlysignal; N6 holdout meanCI[-0.801816,8.204965]% crosses0. Conclusion retain as candidate for independent forward and15minute trailing/net3R validation, no order. Validity conditional on sampledquotes/costmodel; soundness limited by reusedholdout,missingbars,correlatedtrades and differentvenueexitcadence. Strongestcounterexample newregime/execution can change results, not evidence ofcurrententry. Mathematical halfKelly 0.26153098515283013 is binary-average payoff approximation, not authorizedallocation. Portfolio totals unchanged by equity-denominator correction; all52savedholdouttrades reconcile2.84e-14pp. Neighbors10/30days sensitivity only. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Frozen2086/2089 before results: close>prior20day high, exit close<prior10daylow,2ATR14stop/6ATRtarget,20daytimeout, nextactualopen; hourlyrolling480/240h, completed-dailyATRknownbeforeuse. No partials/trailing, thus diagnostic not currentliveexitpolicy. Vectorbtlongonly;fees25bpside onreceivedasset,slip10bpbase20stress. 2024-25train,2026Jan1-Sep10holdout alreadyreusedbybroaderresearch; no parameterselection. Premises1 hourlytrain 18.046070% N19, holdout 5.762346%,stress 4.291986%. 2 Supplieddailyholdout -5.685453%,matched/reconstructed 4.831708%; maskcontrol isolatescoverageeffect. 3 No present daily/hourlysignal; N7 holdout meanCI[-3.476200,5.778872]% crosses0. Conclusion retain as candidate for independent forward and15minute trailing/net3R validation, no order. Validity conditional on sampledquotes/costmodel; soundness limited by reusedholdout,missingbars,correlatedtrades and differentvenueexitcadence. Strongestcounterexample newregime/execution can change results, not evidence ofcurrententry. Mathematical halfKelly 0.06392224669948926 is binary-average payoff approximation, not authorizedallocation. Portfolio totals unchanged by equity-denominator correction; all52savedholdouttrades reconcile2.84e-14pp. Neighbors10/30days sensitivity only. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

StartQuant187.22cash/account850.99;goalrepeatablepositive netreturns;bindingconstraint independentlyvalidated venue-compatible fullrule. Premises:1 Freshledger0holdings/pending; originalwatchdocumentsunchanged andactualTXNMresponsesunknown.2 New200daydailyadapter training-6.9493%stress,N228; holdout+6.0076%,N162butexpectancyCI[-.3822,.9492]%cross0; traininghalfKelly0; all3lookbackstrainingnegative.3 Monthly10SMAcontrol stress train+27.3534%,holdout+27.7307%,DD6.9999%,N22 is researchworthybutnostops/targets anddifferentcash/timing/portfolioimplementation; cannotinheritreturnsinto3Rliveexit.4 All9ETFfreshcrossfalse; AVAVpositiveEAR3.274346pp remainsfrozenpaper229 withold1.5Rrule/N9uncertainty. Conclusion noopen/close/cancel/adjust;cashchosenforunvalidatedcurrentasymmetricpayoff,notbecausealltrendstrategiesfail. Validmandateinference; soundnesslimitedbyvendoradjustments,selection,15minfillproxy,missingregulatortext andsmallmonthlysample. Strongestcounterargument monthlytrendcouldpaywhilecashmissesit; testcompliantfullruleonanindependentperiod/prospectivedata,notalreadyinspectedneighbors. HalfKellylive0; venuepositioncap212.7475,fundcap187.22,normalrisk25.5297 are ceilings nottargets. Funding349.01 doesnotchangeodds. NoFUNDline: monthlytrendfitsQuantmandate. Monitor230resolved,23402UTCarmed;229paper/185CPIretained;196testedcollector4x30minaccepted,actualrunpending;15/85retained. Sources2352–63daily,2368/2371–73monthly,2329–30fundamentals,2343/2346–47/2376; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Start state: account equity850.99, Convex cash178.71, no positions, queued orders or closed trades. Goal: an affordable dated-event long call/put with defensible asymmetric payoff. Binding constraint is validated payoff and whole-contract price, not operator profit need. Premises: 1 MLKN referenceP17.5 $28, N8 coverage12.5%; closest pricedP20$71 fails51.0594cap. Three stock-proxy holdouts allnegative; no positive calibratedKelly. 2 HITI1/9 close coverage and hurdle exceedsmedian by4.271120pp(call)/3.099245pp(put); hindsightlow4/9doesnotauthorizehold-through. 3 HAINK1 .37 maxgross2.702703x, below4xoptionprice neededfornet3Rfullpremiumrisk; missing8eventstudy meansuntested. 4 ZUMZalreadyreported; .90precloseput=$90 failscap, .36oldprice notexecutableentry. 5 GRALaffordableP40.35 requires48.8783%fall, N0samekindvalidatedsample; cheapestpricedcall80dollarsbeyondcap. SRRKmin55>cap; N0. 6 EPMC2.5 .95Aug26cost95;C5 .03Aug24needs30.989583%, N0. ACB/SNDLaffordablelegs lackverifiedfutureprimarydate, N0. Each preliminaryrejection isnotclaimedfailedempiricaltest. Conclusion: allocation0 and cash178.71 forfailedeligibility/payoff. Strongcounterargument: unseenfat-tailwinnercouldpayforseries; an honestroughestimatewouldsufficeonlyaftermandategate, andnonequalifies. Normalpremium<=3%25.5297, highconviction<=5%42.5495, absolute6%51.0594, max3positions; three5%tickets lose15%, below18%. MLKN28=3.2903% andno fractionalcontractquarterprobe. No inventedstopsororders; fullpremiumislossbudget. Hypotheticalnet3RtargetMLKN1.12 requiresintrinsicstock16.38, notdefendedliveforecast. Defaultpre-eventexit MLKNSep21, HITI/HAINSep11RTH; Oct16 expiriesoutlastdates>=week. CurrentMLKNhurdleexceedsmedian6.465662pp, so noholdexception. Sources primarydates23053–61/23066–73, option_contracts, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Monitors231resolved,220/221retained,242/243MLKNand24402UTCadded,GRAL/SRRKreviewadded. Job19222UTCactualENDverified; midnightreceiptpending, notassumedfailed. Testednewjob199240min72runs collectsMLKN/ZUMZstockandoptions throughSep23; livecompletionmustbeaudited. No outside-mandate operation withindependentedgefound; noFUNDproposal.

Premises:1 Sep10SIP/all closes and200SMA/20ATR inobservation23099: SPY757.83/711.49165/5.36936; IWM287.7/272.8899/3.000525; EFA105.66/100.58775/.83187; EEM67/61.68155/.93239; TLT80.78/84.5271/.700375; IEF91.18/93.443375/.354245; GLD396.36/415.812/7.919945; DBC33.62/27.30835/.432765; VNQ94.12/93.1313/1.013435.2 SixaboveSMA butall9freshcrossfalse.3 Frozenrule requirescross, thenpriorATR definesrisk; trendstatealone cannotauthorizecatchup. Conclusion currententrycount0 independentlyoffailedtraining. With187.22cash one shareSPY/IWM/GLDunaffordable, otherspotentiallyaffordablebutnineequal20.80USDsleeves requirefractions; physicalwhole-shareportfolio differssimulation. Liquid dailyvolume1.02mminimumDBC doesnotguaranteeafterhoursspreads. Correlationsshow stockandbondpairs commonbets; no selectivefundreallocationbasedonbestbacktestcell. Strongestcounterargument momentumcanpersistwithoutfreshcross; thatrequiresdifferenttestedrule. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observation23099 andresults2352–63.

Numberedpremises:1 ledger23023zeroopen/pending/closing, no positions requiring R/horizon or exitreset; twooperatorliquidationwins cannot calibratelosses.2 Newfundamentals2337/physical2338/chain2340 identifyLPG potential captureandcosts.3 Audited2349costedlongonlytrain+48.98%,holdout+47.45%N15,stress+34.76%,positive across10/20/40; traininghalfKelly9.0%equity, strongcounterargumenttocash.4 Technical2365current54.41<priorhigh55.20 so frozenentryfalse; cannot queue a limitbuy to anticipate a close-basedsignal. 15min/+2R trailing,rawdividendstops andprospective evidenceunvalidated, meanCIcrosszero.5 ExistingOESX1321holdout-31.814%N4,FTK1895-63.6175%N10; no newcashproof repairs rules. Conclusion noorders/noexitchanges; retainfundcash278.67. Valid conditionaldecision underfrozenrules, not claimnoedgeexists. Startcash;goal asymmetric net payoff;bindingcurrentconstraint falseLPGentryandexecutionmapping. Hardaccount850.99,positioncap212.7475,normalrisk25.5297 upperlimits. QuartertraininghalfKellyprobe19.15<whole-share54.41; no roundingup without justified sizing. Current hypothesis belongsinsupply, no FUNDproposal. PrimaryURLs in2337-38 and price https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Four02UTCmonitors237-240plusfutureOrion241; preserveexistingfuturemonitors; collectorrenewaltestedbeforechange. No money-need adjustment; expectedmonthlyshortfall349.01 excluded frompayoffs.

Premises:1 Observ23064complete24hourdays show large historical O/H/L/V discrepancies despite smallclose differences. 2 Additionalcontrol masks supplied daily on exactlysame complete-day calendar as reconstructed data and recomputes indicators, rather than cherry-picking prices. 3 Fixed20daystrategy matched versus reconstructed returns identical to floatingpoint:BTCtrain+.569980%,holdout+4.831708%;ETHtrain+31.615468%,holdout-6.406080%;SOLtrain+21.135460%,holdout-7.586258%. Conclusion the full-versus-reconstructed sign/magnitude change here is explained by coverage/warmupmask, not demonstrated OHLCcorrection alpha. Full suppliedBTC-5.685453% versus matched+4.831708% highlights missing-data fragility, not reason to choose winner. BTCmatchedtrain stress-2.791931% and holdoutN5 small. Validity of exact control supports attribution for this experiment only; other rules can remain price-sensitive. No gap filling or missingbar execution allowed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2023-01-03–2026-09-10. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip15bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2023-01-03–2026-09-10. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip5bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2016-12-29–2022-12-30. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip15bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: map8historicclosemoves toS20.8 thenP17.5intrinsic=max(17.5-Snext,0); divideby.28premium, subtract1. Sevenzerointrinsicoutcomesandone4.839577xpayout =>mean.604947x. This is stressfloor, notexpectedactualOct16optionprice. NumPyseed911,10000iidbootstrap20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; medianreturn-28.12351%,5thpercentile-45.62057%,profitodds9.38%. Fractions0–6% in.01ppsteps optimizingmeanloggrowth, halfKelly0. Smallselectedsamplemissesunseentails/regimedependence; transactioncostsandresidualtimevalueexcluded. Counterexample: remaining24+daystimevaluecan materiallychangeactualreturns, so simulationdoesnotproveoptionfairvalue. Currentgate1/8failsindependently, allocation0; no calibratedpositiveKellyestimateavailable. Contract28dollars=3.2903%account exceedsnormal3%25.5297; onlyhighconviction5%42.5495couldadmitone, and convictionnotestablished. A quarterofacappedwholecontractisnotpurchasable. 3Rnettargetwouldbe4*.28=1.12optionprice; intrinsicrequiresstock<=16.38(-21.25%), only1/8historicalcloses, noforecasttargetplaced. HITIbootstrapcoverage100000resamples1.195%reach40% isfrequencyuncertainty, notoptiontradeodds. Sources option_contracts; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuerMLKNdates23055/23066–73.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: testwhetherbearishpre-eventstockpathsupportsputrun-up, independentofearningsgap. Vectorbt Portfolio.from_signals short_entries/short_exits, 1000initialcash, fullstocknotional,10bpfees+10bpslippageeachside(assumptionsnotvenuetariff), entryT-2/T-3/T-5open beforeAMCday, exitT-1close. Six2024–25events train, two2026 holdout; noholdoutselection. Fullresults [{"lag":2,"phase":"train","return":-3.997024599531062,"drawdown":6.0269945892936665,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6},{"lag":2,"phase":"holdout","return":-1.973521635520217,"drawdown":4.115226417384676,"win_rate":50,"sample":2},{"lag":3,"phase":"train","return":-8.454414289599754,"drawdown":9.786059101244893,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6},{"lag":3,"phase":"holdout","return":-7.388058106205415,"drawdown":10.096569869161353,"win_rate":0,"sample":2},{"lag":5,"phase":"train","return":-8.350924632949239,"drawdown":9.444998722783293,"win_rate":50,"sample":6},{"lag":5,"phase":"holdout","return":-10.13648642032798,"drawdown":12.642233751916987,"win_rate":0,"sample":2}]. Training-bestT2 loses3.9970%; holdout-1.973522%,DD4.115226%,win50%,N2. Allvariantslosebothwindows. A stockshortproxy is researchonly: venueandmandatepermitlongoptions, notactualshortposition. It doesnotmodel optionIV/theta/spreads, borrowcost, or15minstops; noindependentpositiveoptionedge. CurrentBMOtimingdiffersfromhistoricAMC, so no claimofidenticalexecution. Counterexample: optionvolatilityexpansioncouldoutperformstock; historicaloptionpricesneeded. SerializationinitiallyfailedonNumPyint64; fixedexplicitint and reranNUMBA_DISABLE_JIT=1, successfulJSON. Noeconomicschanged. Source upcoming https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; eightprimaryschedules23066–73; stock-bars SIPadjustmentall675bars2024–Sep10. No backtestCLItechnicalruletrusted, vectorbtcustomdatedtestused.

Diagnostic note2092 added after initialdailytraining inspected; not independentpreregistration/no winnerselection. Period2016-12-29–2022-12-30. Priorcalendar-month finalclose above10monthlycloseSMA holds followingmonth; only firsttradingdayopen signals, no catchup atsplitinitialsession; terminalclose liquidation. Fivefixedindependent equalcapital sleeves,1000each,no monthlycapitalrebalance,cash0%;SIP/alladjustment not independentlybuilt totalreturn. vectorbt from_orders longonly, fee1bp+slip5bp eachside; excludes taxes, cashyield, operatorcosts, no stops/targets. Authorpaperuses same-monthsignalclose andTbillcash; thislaggedproxy differs. Bothperiods profitable; WATCHmonthlyresearch, notlivepermission. Missing current>=3R stop/target and15min/whole-share implementation; modifying rule requires independenttest, existingobserved2023–2026 no longer untouched. Fiveassetmatch from200dailyreturns baseline train-3.20348/holdout12.65007%,stress-7.77259/+9.01443%; differentrule/exposuretiming, cannot attribute difference solelytostops orcausality. Sources https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Code research/monthly_control.py andmonthly_control.json retained.

Premises:1 Seed911 numpy10000 circular3-day-block paths of20days per asset from253supplied dailyreturns, observations23079–81. 2 Using latest2ATR stop/6ATR target, daily-close firststop/firsttarget odds BTC47.50/7.27%,ETH51.91/10.29%,SOL42.68/4.11%; remainder neither. 3 These unconditional close-only scenarios miss intraday thresholds, crisis gaps, costs and breakout conditioning. Conclusion no inferred live win probability or Kelly from this simulation. Terminal5th-percentile held-without-stop accountloss at25%allocation -4.29/-5.73/-6.02%, so venuecap alone cannot substitute for risk control. Validity is conditional resampling arithmetic; soundness fails as a calibrated trading forecast if regime changes or aggregation errors matter. Strongest counterexample trend-conditioned returns can be much better, tested separately. Stop distances5.967/7.224/10.091%, nominal targets17.902/21.671/30.273%; no actualstop/target set because noholding/noentry. Fees make nominal3R less than3Rnet; livepolicy requires new validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises:1 Fresh36published USD-pair census23063 overSep4–10 has no20day closing-high signal, including current top10by observed v*vw. 2 Top10 USDC/USDG/BTC/ETH/XRP/LTC/SOL/LINK/HYPE/UNI; stablecoins included, USDG only3/7days so ranking is observed incomplete volume, not normalizedglobalactivity. 3 Quote22992 BTC/ETH/SOL minimum spread+assumed25bp/side hurdle .544/.525/.503%, topask76.9/81.1/282.8USD; SOLbidonly5.3USD. Conclusion no immediate broad breakout entry; sparse top-depth can move sharply between snapshots, so no guaranteedcap-sizeexecution. Counterexample an intraday high breakout can occur before daily close; current hourly strategy separately tested, not inferred from this screen. Fixed36inventory may omit newlylisted assets; live venue eligibility must be checked beforeanyorder. Validity applies only sampleduniverse/definition. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots .

Sep10completedSIPall dailybar https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Last54.41>50SMA45.5232, but belowprior20closehigh55.20 by1.431159%;20ADR1.690275,20RV36.0464%annual. Combinedrule requiresboth conditions; positive trendalone doesnottrigger. Illustrative reference at54.41 uses2ADRrisk3.38055,stop51.02945,target64.55165 for3R; not an orderandmustrecompute from actualnextopen ifsignal. Stopbasedonrange is strategyinvalidation, not proof physicalcanal thesisbreak. At+2R requiretrail/atmostquarter policytested15min beforelive. Actualbookempty,daysheld/Rnotapplicable; no stopor targetmoved. MarkdailyOHLC/split-dividend adjustment and intradaymarkinglimitations; missing executablehistory isunknown.

Premises2349costedholdoutN15 cashreturns; independent manualentryfee-inclusivecompounding matchesvectorbtportfolio. numpyseed911,50000iidbootstrap paths of20trades from same15returns. TraininghalfKelly9.00039%equity (p.5,W10.8027%,L6.91355%), quarterprobe2.25010%; holdouthalfKelly13.0303% is diagnostic, not selectedallocation. 9% allocation simulationmedian+5.66527%,lossprob9.146%,95thDD4.58894%;quarterprobe median+1.40506%,95thDD1.16244%. One-share54.41=6.39373%equity simulation95thDD3.27679%. These conditional paths omitserialdependence,future structuralbreaks andfat-tail events absentfromN15; not calibrated20-trade forecast. Fixedhypothetical15%gap costs8.1615USD per share,0.9591%equity, not maxpossibleloss. Quarterprobebudget19.15 cannot buywhole share54.41. Current signalfalse andexecutionunvalidated => actualsize0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; methodsinlocalresearch/lpg_audit.py, measurementsrecorded. No fundingtarget input.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(0); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":26.38377201205344,"IWM":5.354821332148041,"EFA":28.51371131393328,"EEM":17.639756103504478,"TLT":-27.905545909065754,"IEF":-13.115800110816622,"GLD":7.4620880456991445,"DBC":2.371501098360529,"VNQ":0.28147353536602804}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(0); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":29.45367737624258,"IWM":7.054057957035864,"EFA":30.84790536983071,"EEM":21.222423989776452,"TLT":-22.986772474113316,"IEF":-8.295059481656253,"GLD":8.759402828612984,"DBC":6.336479925047089,"VNQ":6.695718881876278}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":3.4078171497209597,"IWM":-5.579949231820303,"EFA":-22.07376939450205,"EEM":-17.321886586017243,"TLT":-22.131031210091756,"IEF":-6.905174309487084,"GLD":-9.300987020688344,"DBC":1.167379643909805,"VNQ":3.167766729063204}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":6.557057491275531,"IWM":-2.1188985278281947,"EFA":-17.089419400321816,"EEM":-13.602826228651354,"TLT":-18.95313479617693,"IEF":-3.4927009060862213,"GLD":-5.031379677702052,"DBC":4.875759672186408,"VNQ":9.109997748285537}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":38.497527925049326,"IWM":35.866113507717756,"EFA":47.203643961592626,"EEM":51.00243420798159,"TLT":-20.113842950253492,"IEF":-5.57555833209975,"GLD":-4.154784612903684,"DBC":7.723165262803899,"VNQ":4.05070421375362}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":41.01305800455537,"IWM":39.44495973061672,"EFA":51.68666726452622,"EEM":58.11079273058517,"TLT":-14.663466606171571,"IEF":-0.5355780434952995,"GLD":-2.608925598131484,"DBC":11.895420869374473,"VNQ":12.042515396131659}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.