Stats

Illustrative binary sizing uses honest empirical p=2/4 and b=18.8951 net-win multiple at the frozen P80 target: full Kelly=(bp-q)/b=47.354%, half Kelly=23.677% of the $100 book. The indivisible $18 contract is 18% of fund and 1.803% of $998.40 equity, below the 3% cap. This is a rough sizing assumption, not calibrated odds. Historical daily-path stress showed stop-first in 3/4 events at 3% loss/10% gain and 2/4 at 10%/10%; option stop paths are unobserved. Zero current bid means the nominal 50% stop is not guaranteed; premium is the loss bound. Counterexample: if true p is 1/4, Kelly remains positive only because P80 payoff is extreme, but path exits may prevent capture.

Using actual fills and the precommitted stress formula loss=N*[r+(1-r)g+0.005], r=2*ATR/entry and g=max(10%, twice the worst observed adjusted overnight gap), each $86.65 lot remains below 2% of current $998.75 equity ($19.975): XLK about $13.76 at g=12.5136%, XLE about $13.52 at g=11.5864%, XLV about $11.10 at g=10%. Total scenario loss is about $38.38, but the mandate applies the under-2% test per lot. This is a deterministic stress, not a loss ceiling; a larger-than-sampled gap can lose more. Targets imply approximately $15.92/$17.87/$9.21 gross upside and about 5.5R/5.2R/4.1R, using overlapping historical P90 endpoints rather than win probabilities. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

Numpy seed92104,20000paths pertraining/holdout/recentwindow,20historicalmanagedtrades perpath (60000total),5bpfees+15bpslip eachside alreadyintradeoutcomes;capstake=min(currentSupplybook,120USD,.25account),accountstarts999.26 withother879.26fixed. PercentageEURoutcomesmappedtoUSDstakes assumesunchangedFX andfractionalexecution solelyforresearch. HeldoutN19:3targets,15stops,1timeexit,win15.7895%,avgwin23.6532%,avgloss7.3580%;binaryR halfKelly0. Bootstrapmeantrade95%CI[-7.25678,+3.11475]%,notestablishedpositiveexpectancy. Capped20tradebookPnLP5/median/P95=-87.0796/-56.3922/+42.7614USD;lossfrequency86.31%;accountDDP959.75253%conditional,notbound. TrainingN32halfKelly0;recentN4(+67.36%historicalreturn)has3targets/1gapstop,meanCI[-5.08534,+29.43783]%;recentresamplingwouldlookhighlyfavorable butfouroutcomes cannot supplyliveprobabilities. This diagnosesregimedependence,notanindefinitemodelvetooraforecastthatcurrenttradehas86%lossodds. Actualsize0duefailedentry/defensiblevalueandimplementationgaps. Source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE ; prereg4076/backtest3861; /tmp/supply92104/sim.py. Neitherbootstrapnorhistoricalgapcoversunseentailevents;venue15minuteexitsnotmodeled.

Premises: 1 Preserve nine normalized20session paths and price.13,stop.065,target.39; European BS calibrated to indicative mid.105 gives49.352556% IV,4% assumed rate,no dividend. Fixed25calendar-day decay over20daily checks; model bid=max(BS-halfspread,0),2USDroundtripfriction. 2 Exactequalweight baseline mean-$7.09092,1/9targets,8/9stops; previous-$7.05185 was finite50kresampling, not discrepant data. IIDbootstrap50000 nine-pathmeans(seed92104)95%interval[-12.27064,+1.48562], limitedN9, not calibrated liveEV. Baselinezero-halfspread mean-.30007; IV*1.2/zero-spread+4.29475 andIV*1.2/.025spread-1.04043 show execution/model sensitivity. Positivecorner cannot be selected as reality. 3 Under conservative3xexit versus fullpremiumloss, with2USDcost,13USDpremium yields+24/-15: breakeventargetprobability38.4615%. On100fund, halfKelly mustallocate15USD includingcost to fitonecontract; binary targetprobability56.9231% required. This is an assumption threshold, NOT forecast. At10USDticket+18/-12 threshold54.4%; at15USD+28/-17 threshold58.9333%. Actual50%stopcanreduce loss but gaps/spreadcanrestorefull loss. 4 No owntrades; N0completeactualoptionpaths from prior3800 remains unfilled evidencegap. Base modelhalfKelly0; avoid claiming endpoint55.6%netwins estimates probabilityofhittingtargetbeforestop. Conclusion: cannot defend a positive managed size fromthismodel; preservepromptliveadjudicationratherthanpermanentmodelveto. Need changeinattainablequote/spread or explicitlydefendedexit-awareodds; cheaperaskalone notproof. Currentaccount999.26 =>49.963premiummmaximum,total100,max2; no researchorder. Syntheticthreshold.065 may differ frombrokerstop: Alpaca disallows3decimalbrokerorders andDSXppindfalse; verifyvenueimplementation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative ; https://alpaca.markets/support/options-pricing-increments-and-options-order-handling .

Premises:1 StartingS20.75,Oct16K20put premium.12 plus assumed.02/share friction, full all-in loss14USD;P80 legacy target1.702273 caps proceeds170.2273.2 Reversion only to19.84 pays16USD gross; break-even event probability87.5% if every other path loses all.3 To18.2977 or below, assumed target-hit probability must exceed8.2243% for positive arithmetic expectancy and10.7959% for halfKelly to fund14USD all-in at equity999.26. These are required probabilities, NOT forecasts.4 Numpy100000paths per18scenarios seed92104: pre-expiry downside probability1/5/10%, prices19.84/18.30/17, independent stop-survival1/.25. At17 and10%/fullsurvival mean+2.8593,loss90.096%,halfKelly9.667USD<14ticket;25%survival mean-9.83794,Kelly0. At5%/fullsurvival mean-5.62141. Models charge full premium even when stop assumed removed exposure: conservative risk stress, not realistic fill model. Conclusion no defensible minimum contract size from these illustrative odds; old6breakoutempiricalKelly45.97USD is no longer calibrated to cash-deal regime. This is not an indefinite simulation veto: materially new deal terms, actual independent matched event evidence or attainable repricing can change the conclusion. Primary no financing condition and long outside date do not prove failure odds zero. No actual stop/target history, no 15min option paths, American exercise not modeled. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1436126/000114036126037107/ef20082419_8k.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative ; script research/mg_audit.py.

Premises:1 Analysis3825 adjusted indicators/targets and observed gaps.2 Fixed equal allocation260/3 and25%account cap249.815.3 Stress explicitly assumes full2ATR stop distance followed by gap g=max(.10,2abs sampleworst), plus.5%notional friction. Formula loss=N*(r+(1-r)*g+.005),r=2ATR/E. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . With adjustedclose E for illustration, g12.5136125/11.5863927/10%, slot86.66 losses13.792109/13.489460/11.106454 <19.9852 account2%. Equal common ceilingmin(260/3,249.815,(19.9852-.01)/maxlossfraction) rounds86.66. Joint38.388023=3.842%account, not2% aggregate. Target dollar scenarios15.920745/17.872222/9.209198, gross5.539/5.240/4.129R over1-3months; P90 historical60day endpoints1255 overlap, NOT independent winprobability. Counterexample: larger overnight gap can exceed2%; entirelot loss86.66 exceeds2%, so no guaranteed risk cap claimed. Refresh E/capital/exposure and action units before eachRTHorder. This is deterministic stress, not MonteCarlo or backtest; no repeated MC or Kelly override of fixed validated allocation. Prior live15minute exit calibration remains unknown.

Premises:1 prior analysis paired price/adjusted opening gaps on factor-change dates through2025;2 numpy seed92104,10000 bootstrap samples each18 XLE or9 EEM events, replacement;3 mean adjusted-minus-price difference. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . XLE95% percentile range86.1168–99.2930bp,EEM97.2951–148.7577bp. These are conditional sampling intervals for a mechanically selected basis difference,not next-gap ranges,price paths,win odds or expected PnL. Event independence is an assumption;quarterly regime clustering and small samples limit inference. Reuse one-share risk:10%joint gap on67.37+64.31=13.168USD,1.317775% of999.26;gap-through-stop can exceed nominal4.10risk. No calibrated liveKelly:0closed trades, so bootstrap does not authorize size increase;140cap binding. Established mandate size retained.

1 Equity999.26,3%29.9778,25%249.815,cap280.2 Retain prior gap assumptions g EEM.125794155019/QQQ.109666233203/IWM.138906519177, not smaller current sample maxima. r=2ATR/E;k=r+(1-r)*2g+.005;N=floorcents min(280/3,.25equity,(.03equity-.50)/k).3 Sizes93.33 each. Stop-plus-gap stress incl.50fixedreserve EEM26.413233,QQQ23.108078,IWM28.421384; joint77.942695 (7.8000%equity approximate). Normalstop dollar losses2.62669/2.14064/2.11364.4 Numpy20000IID paths of20 synchronized raw-gap draws from1254rows,seed92104:Q95worst daily basketloss10.014485,Q99/max14.835991,excludescosts/stops/drift. Conclusion unchanged sizes within assumed per-lot stress; neither model guarantees futureloss<3%. Counterexample unseen correlated crash/session outage exceeds sample and scenario; total loss of93.33lot exceeds3%. No calibrated live win probability/Kelly from empty ledger; fixed equal mandate sizing governs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip .

Premises:10000paths/name,60sessions,five-dayjointOHLCblocks2024on,seed92102,SIP/all completedSep18. E=currentclose,S=E−2trueATR20,T=[4E(1.002)−3S(.998)]/.998. Entrydaygapsstopopen,bothhitstopfirst,targetcapped,20bpsidecost,timeexitmark. SEI E69.66/S61.646/Thurdle94.81879,target42.11%,stop54.42%,profit45.12%,mean8.8836%,P05−11.8577%. ATI mean7.0767%,target37.84%,P05−9.8496%; UMCmean4.2257% despite negative conditionalholdout;PXSmean3.8352% versus only11.91%target. LFUSmean2.7736%,VSH2.4670%. All60k paths repeat recent regimes and are unconditional: not currententryprobabilities, notvalidated15minuteexecution, P05notlossbound. Strong bullish countercase preserved, but cannot turn algebraic3R into fairvalue. Noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises: S3.11,K3,Oct16putask.13,Fridayindicativemid.105,bid.08. Fit EuropeanBSIV49.3526% at25calendardays,r4%,nodividends; feedIV54.14% usesdifferentconvention. Resample50000 entire normalized20sessionpaths from9 historicalbreakouts, seed92102; decay25calendar dayslinearlyover20checks. Dailybidmodel=max(BS-.025,0),stop.065,target.39,$2roundtripfriction. Baseline mean-$7.05185,win11.178%,stop88.822%,target11.178%,P5-$15/P95+$25.2241;halfKelly0. IV*.8mean-$7.9401,IV*1.2-$0.8932,allhalfKelly0. Markbasisstress: nohalfspreadmean-.14623,onecenthalfspread-6.55541; these prove sensitivity, notknowable execution. Hypotheticalpayprices.12/.11/.10 whileholdingunderlying/IVfixed yieldmeans-6.6548/-6.4917/-5.4917,notattainablequotes. Contrast terminalwithoutstops mean+$12.7754,5/9netwins,avgwin32.1211,avgloss11.4067,halfKelly.198864 of100fundsupportsone13USD; stop-awaremodeldoesnot. Thus no honest calibrated claimofpositivepathEV today. ModeldoesNOTaddapermanentmandateveto: livebidask,actualstoptriggerbasis andcurrentfinancingcause mustbereviewedMonday. 50000drawsarenot50000independentevents;dailychecksarenotvenue15minutes, nohistoricoptionquotes, Americanexercise/dividends omitted. Fullpremium13USD=1.301%account,13%fund;nominalstoprisk6.50 maygaptofullpremiumplusfees. Target.39 implies26USDgrossprofit,notpromise. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative .

Premises:1 Empiricalnormalizedsignedterminalpayoffs,cappedtarget,deductpremium+.02/sharefriction; optimize meanlogwealth over0–.99thenhalf,using999.38equity. MGOctP20.12 atP80target1.7023 mean+$14.37/contract,halfKelly45.97USD;25%payoffhaircutmean+7.28/Kelly31.98;50%haircut+.186/Kelly1.30. At3xpremiumtarget.36 mean-$8/Kelly0. MGcall.18 target.7023Kelly14.89below18minimum.2 DSXP3.13 P80target.51465 mean+5.667/Kelly119.13;25%haircut+.501/Kelly15.84(one13premiumcontract);50%haircut-4.666/Kelly0. 3xpremiumtargetmean+2.551/Kelly75.65. This generalKelly includespartialprofits; binary target-or-fullloss diagnosticKelly0doesNOTsupersede it.3 Pathstress usesactualhistorical20dailyclosepaths,N6MG/N8DSX,BSMputs,28dayexpiry/rate4%assumptions,askimpliedsigma17.8845%MG/54.4913%DSX,IVmult.75/1/1.25,spread.01/.025/.05,50%optionstop/P80target. Bootstrap100000seed92102constantIV:MGmean+18.15/+16.90/+15.89USD with5/6stops1/6targets;DSX-5.08/-10.88/-11.84 with7/8or8/8stops,1/8or0targets. Neitherdailyclosechecks norBSMcaptures15minvenueexecution,Americanexercise,IVchangesorrealbid; outcomesunvalidated, notpermanentveto.4 COSTterminalsampleallP760worthless,mean-20;TRMDP32.5signed0/11allworthlessdespiteabsoluteP80pass. ConclusiononecontractMG12orDSX13isaplausiblecappedprobeONLYwithfreshquoteandhonestexit-awareassumptions atauthorizedsession, notautomaticmodeltrade. Fullpremiumrisk<=29.9814,max4,total100;nominal50%stopisnotlossbound. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars andoption-chain; research/sizing.py/path_model.py. SmallNselectionandregimebreakremainbindinguncertainty.

Premises: equity999.38,3% ceiling29.9814,positioncap249.845,fund280. Retain prior gap assumptions EEMg=.125794155019,QQQ=.109666233203,IWM=.138906519177. r=2ATR/E; N=floorcents min(280/3,.25equity,(.03equity-.50)/(r+(1-r)*2g+.005)). All N93.33. Stress EEM26.413233,QQQ23.108078,IWM28.421384 incl .50/lot; joint77.942695. These scenarios are not guaranteed maximum losses. Reference brackets and payoff:[{"symbol":"QQQ","size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105554290121,"p90_pct":16.169596547248037,"rr":7.049798535241943,"normal_loss":2.1406405278259037,"stress":23.108077650841185,"fall_to_sma_pct":8.271862221914205},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.33,"stop":277.666,"target":320.542353437563,"p90_pct":12.827297936488211,"rr":5.6640275781105,"normal_loss":2.1136403379091897,"stress":28.421384363225883,"fall_to_sma_pct":3.7273319253783965},{"symbol":"EEM","size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21621874551062,"p90_pct":10.720899217530388,"rr":3.809286374508678,"normal_loss":2.626690213337311,"stress":26.413232637416957,"fall_to_sma_pct":7.367522005072347}]. Numpy seed92102:20000 paths*20 days, synchronized IID resampling1254 overnight gap vectors; Q95 largest single-night basket loss10.023785,Q9914.828643. No stops/drift/serial dependence modeled, excludes unseen gaps; not live exit odds or strategy backtest and not used to shrink stress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Premises:1 training1076 paired opening gaps through2025;2 fixed67.37/64.31 dollar exposures;3 numpy seed92102 draws10000 paths each12 contiguous5session blocks. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Sixty-session opening-gap sum P5 -12.51026,median1.56015,P95 14.03219 USD. Preserves within-block dependence; omits intraday returns, reinvestment, stops, targets, fees and execution. Therefore not cumulative investable PnL, not expected return, not probability of exit. No new repeated barrier forecast on unchanged weekend bars; earlier exit diagnostics remain limited by15min venue cadence. A common10% gap costs13.168 or1.317617% of999.38 equity. Stress can exceed historical support. Do not infer Kelly from these percentiles or resize.

Premises: hypotheticalFridaySep18S46.67,Oct16P40ask.48,bid.33; exitOct5beforeearnings, stop.24,target1.44. EuropeanBS,no dividends/earlyexercise, assumedrate4%,bid=mid-.075,2USDroundtrip. Fit totalvariance to.405mid, splitRV20normalvariance/eventvariance; 3dayblockbootstrap non-eventreturns,50000paths seed92100,11dailychecks throughOct5. Baseline mean-$16.8918,win15.762%,stop75.544%,target3.276%,P05-$37.41/P95+$58.03. Eventvariance75%/125% means-$29.1867/-$5.7825,halfKelly0allcases. This is an assumptions-based sensitivity, not calibratedliveodds or an attainableMondayentry; Mondayquotes/remainingtime require refit. Quarterprobe12USD impossible at48USDwholecontract. Fullpremium48=4.8%equity/48%fund; two suchtickets96=9.6%equity. A50%stop does not cap gap loss. Event-jump counterfactual cannot justify a policy that exits first; model alone is not a permanentveto. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative . Inputs/results31127.

Premises:1 Oct16P95 atindicative.18,target1.93,assumed.02friction givesnetwin1.73/share; allincost.20.2 Borrow2/17signedterminalpositives as an explicitly optimistic assumedtargetprobability; it is not observed target-before-50%stop probability. HalfKelly equity allocation=55.9488USD withidealstoploss.11allin versus7.8205USD withfull.20loss.3 Onecontractpremium18/allincost20 andcap30; below-onecontract allocations cannot be roundedup. Conclusion: freshspread/path-awarehonestodds required at authorizedentry; fullpremiumbudget and50%stop remainmandatory. Neither scenarios establishtradeprobabilitynorpermanentcashveto. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; latestcontract metadataOI7 asSep17,zeroindicativebid asSep18,observations31094 and current sizing observation.

Premises:1 NumPyseed92100 draws100000 signed NKE reactions from12frozen events; spot35.51,K31,premium.30,+.02assumedfriction; max(K-S*(1+r),0). Mean net-$2.2825,median-$32,loss83.315%,proceeds>=3premium16.685%.2 This terminal intrinsic scenario excludesremainingtimevalue,IV,50%pathstops and executablequotes, so neither lossfrequency nor targetfrequency is a live probability. NKEsize0 independently becausegatefails.3 On frozen HALON17/THN4 signed terminalrows, capintrinsic at indicatedP80target beforedeductingpremium+.02: HALOP95target1.93 mean+$2.7059; HALOC130target1.83 -$3.4706; THP18target6.20 -$25; THC27target3.58 +$143.8632. Uncappedmeans greatly overstate target-limitedstrategy; even cappedendpointvalues omitpathstop. Conclusion: no new calibratedKellyortradeodds; preserve grosspasses for honestfreshsession sizing. Existing3658series depletion/full-loss sensitivity remainsapplicable, not rerun. Stop50% is required but fullpremium<=30 is hardrisk. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations31092 and signed scenarios thisrun.

Premises:1 same1075 paired daily gaps through2025 as statistical analysis;2 numpy seed92100 samples paired rows iid10000paths of60sessions;3 scale constant67.37/64.31. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Maximum net joint opening-gap loss along each path P50=3.138277 P90=4.951984 P99=4.970863 dollars. Net allows cross-name gains to offset; different from prior gross-loss diagnostic. This is NOT cumulative PnL or probability of stop/target. No prior exits, price compounding, serial dependence, within-day extremes, dividends, fees or executable15minfills. Historical support bounds sampled extremes; new shocks can exceed them.2026 reserved chronological comparison but previously inspected, not unseen OOS. Not a backtest and not calibrated odds for Kelly. Purpose only attack naive negative-correlation protection at actual holding scale. Keep mandated1share, no resizing from simulation.

Scenario analysis, not new Monte Carlo or calibrated exit odds. Retain prior3690 adverse-gap inputs EEM .125794155019,QQQ .109666233203,IWM .138906519177, not newly estimated tails. Let r=2ATR/E,g=retained gap,N=floorcents min(280/3,250,(30-.50)/(r+(1-r)*2g+.005)). Stress=N*(r+(1-r)*2g+.005)+.50. Updated reference entries produce [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105554290121,"p90_pct":16.169596547248037,"rr":7.049798535241943,"sma_cushion_pct":9.017802412958599,"fall_to_sma_pct":8.271862221914205,"stress":23.108077650841185,"gap_beyond_stop_for_30":0.2949106082972351,"normal_stop_loss":2.1406405278259037},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.33,"stop":277.666,"target":320.542353437563,"p90_pct":12.827297936488211,"rr":5.6640275781105,"sma_cushion_pct":3.8716408300737193,"fall_to_sma_pct":3.7273319253783965,"stress":28.421384363225883,"gap_beyond_stop_for_30":0.2951193158969985,"normal_stop_loss":2.1136403379091897},{"symbol":"EEM","size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21621874551062,"p90_pct":10.720899217530388,"rr":3.809286374508678,"sma_cushion_pct":7.953497698156986,"fall_to_sma_pct":7.367522005072347,"stress":26.413232637416957,"gap_beyond_stop_for_30":0.29113226241437123,"normal_stop_loss":2.626690213337311}]. Joint77.942695 includes1.50 reserve; no independent-loss assumption. Reverse stress solves gap beyond stop causing30 loss: approximately29.11–29.51%. Larger gaps can breach3%; complete lot loss93.33 exceeds it. Stress envelope is sizing assumption, not guaranteed bound. Prior Monte Carlo3646 retained without repeating it; no backtest or odds invented. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars plus saved3690.

Premises: BB Oct2 C8.5 costs .43, S7.99; event hurdle11.7647% exceeds N13 median9.1153%, requiring Sep23 pre-event exit. European-call scenario calibrated to .405 indicative midpoint; r4%, halfspread .025, roundtrip friction .02/share, arithmetic RV20 .571319, total variance .0359627 and residual event variance .0234431. Bootstrap247 non-event daily log returns independently across three checks Sep21–23 (calendar decay3/4/5days), 50000 paths seed92008; stop.215, target1.29. Base mean-$5.72394, win28.398%, stop19.392%, target.998%, timeexit79.610%; P05-$29.17/P95+$36.62. Event variance75%/125% means-$11.0527/-.9359, all estimated halfKelly0. Assumed bid construction, iid sampling, daily checks and frozen spreads are not venue executions or calibrated live odds. Does not create an additional permanent veto; BB already fails both payoff alternatives. Contrast forbidden hold-through counterfactual: training11 mean-$22.39 per ticket,2wins, not a traded backtest. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/BB?feed=indicative ; full observations30950–51.

Premises: joint open/high/low/close relative to previousclose, SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars,2024on history, seed92008, five-dayblocks,10000paths pername,60sessions. AtSep18LPG58.15 trueATR1.918885 gives hypotheticalstop54.31223/target69.66331;BWLP25.66 ATR.8495 gives23.961/30.757. Gapsstopatopen,stopfirstifboth,targetcapped,20bpsidefriction,markremainingattimeexit. LPGtarget30.55%,stop65.86%,mean1.3275%,profit33.51%,P05-8.4741%;BWLPtarget39.18%,stop57.61%,mean3.3743%,profit41.86%,P05-9.6904%. One-shareP05loss4.928/2.487USD is notmaxloss. Strongbullcountercase: positive unconditionaldrift andtailpayoff. Limitation: bootstrap repeatsregime,notconditionalentryforecast,blocksremoveobservedlongerdependence; dailychecksarenotvenue15minfills. Gross3Rhurdle beforecosts doesnotmeetnet3R; neitherlevelisdefendedfairvalue. Actualsize0 because entry/value remainunestablished, notbecausesimulationfailscertainty. Do notconvertmodelprofitfrequencyintoKellyprobability.

Premises:1 NumPyseed9200802,N100000resamplesof11signedWORearningsclose-reactions; frozenS57.38,K55put,ask2.14,+.02friction.2 MapK-S*(1+r)positivepart; meancontractnet-156.32USD,median-216,loss90.716%,zero-intrinsic63.5%,terminal3xpremium0%.3 This is empiricalterminalintrinsicscenario,NOT optionfill/PnLforecast; remainingtimevalue,IV,50%stopandadverseselectionexcluded. Quantizedsize0because214premium>30capregardlessmodel. Conclusion: no live Kelly or exitodds established; do notbuyhypotheticalcheapfillsbecausebootstraplooksbetter. Newoptions simulationsunnecessary forunchangedHALO/TH: prior3658fullpremiumandshared-lossstress retained,notrerun. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/WOR?feed=indicative .

Premises:1 paired raw SIP gaps Sep2021–Dec2025 N1076 preserve same-day dependence;2 fixed5-session blocks,10000paths,60sessions,seed200908;3 scale each day to unchanged67.37/64.63 holdings and compare1.89/2.53 risk budgets. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Across paths maximum gross opening-gap loss P50/P90/P99=3.0080/4.96784/4.98122 dollars; maximum sum of individual stop-budget excess=0/1.56542/1.65664.36.48%of paths have any excess. Gross losses clip gains per name; not net portfolio PnL. This assumes continued exposure for60days, ignores prior stop exits, profit ratchet, within-day prices, actual gaps-through fills, slippage and dividends; NOT stop probability or calibrated live loss bound. Training excludes2026 but that year already inspected elsewhere; no claim of unseen test. Maxima are capped by historical support; novel shocks can exceed them. Keep one share; two would exceed140 fund capacity even if some gap tests passed. No sizing from model frequencies or invented halfKelly.

Premises: 1. Daily OHLC source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . N20000 paths per symbol/history/policy cell,2symbols*2windows*2policies=160000; seed92006,60sessions,5dayblocks sampledjointly as overnight/high/low/close ratios. Histories2017onward or2025onward. Fixedcurrentprice,2trueATRstop/net3Rtargethurdle,20bp/side; openbelowstopfillsopen, gapabovetargetonlytarget, intradaybothstopfirst. Comparator trims25%at+2R andmovesstopentrynextday; no withinbar timingclaimed. 2. CSTMlong/recentfixed target28.59/36.80%,stop67.66/58.675%,mean.3757/1.0729USD/share. Recentquarter/BE increasesprofitfrequency40.81->46.915% butreducesmean1.0729->.8588 andtarget36.80->33.415%. 3. CENXlong/recentfixedtarget28.565/32.76%,mean.9747/1.9622;recentquarter/BE profit38.56->44.32%,mean1.9622->1.6064. FourCSTM102.20USDlot recentP1loss10.2827; threeCENX117.03lotP1loss18.2100. Fund120/account1000capsaffordable; thesequantilesNOTmaximumloss. 4. Simulationunconditionalpastreturnspositivelydriftedanddoesnotconditiononentrysignal,shortageorcurrentvaluation. FractionaltrimsexitonlyRTHinvenue; dailyperfectbarriersarenot15minutechecks. Pricescouldgapbeyondhistory. Conclusion: noorderfrommodeledodds; showwinningfrequencycanriseasfat-tailpayofffalls. Preferfutureexplicitmanagementtest; donot equate resampledtargetfrequencywithposteriorwinprobability oruseittooverrulefalsecurrententry.

Premises: Oct16P40 buy.48,S46.67,50%optionstop.24,target3x=1.44,mandatoryOct5pre-eventexit. Model notliveodds: Europeanput,no dividend/earlyexercise, assumedr4%, bid=BSmid-.075 floored0; $2roundtripcostscenario. CalibrateSep18T28/365 toindicativemid.405: totalvariance.01990934, normalRV20.261624, residualeventvariance.01465860. Bootstrap247 non-eventdailylogreturns,last252sessions,3dayblocks,50000pathsseed92006;11dailychecksSep21–Oct5, actualcalendar-decaydays3,4,5,6,7,10,11,12,13,14,17. Fixedremainingeventvariancebase:stop75.412%,target3.236%,timeexit21.352%,win15.878%,meanPnL-$16.7617,P05-$37.4095,P95+$59.1994. ±25%eventvariance meanPnL-$28.9965/-$5.5714. ConstantIVbase mean-$28.3786; full6scenarios allmeannegative, numericalhalfKelly0 andwholecontracts0. Positivehistoricaldrift .000741/day isestimated, notforecast; blockresamplingnotcalibrated15minexecution. Event-conditioned11historicalscaledpaths allmodeledlosses, no targets. Counterfactualholdthrough signedintrinsicmean3.2242xpremium,profits4/11,zero7/11,2026two both-$50includingassumedcost: this is prohibitedcounterfactualatcurrentmedianhurdle, nottradedexpectancy. Fullpremiummaybelost despite50%stop. Reassess liveprice/IV andactualpre-eventhistoryratherthan treatingMCasindefiniteveto. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative . NeedseparateliveBBO; explicitOPRA403.

Premises:1 NumPyseed9200602,100000paths/scenario,20sequentialpairs,initialfund100,noaddedcapital; premiums23+18,targetsaleproceeds183+358,1USDroundtripfeeeach,reserve43beforepair.2 Binaryp5/10/15%perlegASSUMED,loss50%or100%;commonuniformmixture0/.5/1 preservesmarginals and stresses dependence.3 p10%/half-loss independent meanfund413.71 butmedian32.50 and57.76%unabletofundnextpair; perfectlysharedmean323.51/median32.50/unable72.883%. Full-lossindependent mean175.58,median14,unable79.461%;shared86.257%. P95peak-to-troughdrawdowns270/382.5USDhalf-loss mayexceedinitial100 aftermodeledwins,notinitialprincipalrisk.4 BreakeventargetprobHALO7.289%half-loss/13.115%full-loss;TH2.865/5.307%. AtASSUMEDp10%,HALOhalfKelly26.91USDhalf-lossbut0full-loss;TH66.11/23.47before30cap. Conclusion: size cannotignore fullpremiumlossor minimumcontractgranularity; model sensitivity is not prediction,newmandatoryveto,or validatedtradeodds. No portfolio deploymentselected. Fullpremiumhardcap30,total100,max4. Source stock-derivedtargetlevels https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars