R9251230 TH breakout remains above the frozen trigger but has weakened intraday
TechnicalwatchConvex tailTH2026-09-25 16:33
The completed Sep18 split-only close $21.19 exceeded the prior 252-session high $20.85 on 2.4195x prior-20-day volume; SMA200 $13.3711, RSI14 67.82 and 20-day momentum 20.19% describe the same price regime and are not independent confirmations. Current Sep25 spot $21.095 remains above the old breakout level but below the trigger close. Binding constraint is option payoff shape, not indicator count. A close below $20.85 would weaken persistence but does not mechanically alter the option's $0.09 stop.
screen_close21.19
prior_252_high20.85
current_spot21.09
volume_ratio2.42
RSI1467.82
ATR201.04
momentum20_pct20.19
13:50 UTC fixed sector screen and verified RTH deployment
Premises:1 New429dailySIPsplit-onlybars Jan2025-Sep18 2026 confirmS20.75 aboveprior252high20.4, volume2,560,047/prior20mean=9.398945x;SMA50 17.5934/SMA20016.12495,ATR20.76122,RSI14simple69.686411. Priorclose19.84,Sep18O20.66/H21.32/L20.65.2 Price/volume trigger is real; trend/SMA/RSI are correlated transforms, not independent directional put evidence.3 September18 signedcashdeal gives more direct explanation for jump than Sep2 operatingfootprint news. Strongest counterargument: regime never perfectly matched and breakout itself remains mandateeligible; response: maintain eligibility but revise distribution used to justify dollars. Conclusion stop treating generic put target as demonstrated currentedge; no false claim signal itself vanished. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MG&feed=sip&adjustment=split ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1436126/000114036126037107/ef20082419_ex99-1.htm . Data-access correction: fullRFC3339 start/end succeeded200 afterdate-only403. Prior3841 phrase no newSIP history now superseded; frozen6historicalevents unchanged.
bars429
close20.75
prior_close19.84
prior252_high20.4
volume2560047
volume_ratio9.4
SMA5017.59
SMA20016.12
ATR200.76
RSI1469.69
04UTC full nine-asset signal table and target window
Premises:1 SIP adjustment=all delivers1332 unique completed bars each throughSep18 after explicit endpoint fallback from403.2 Dec5 split open/priorclose ratios XLK1.004627 XLE.998215 XLY1.000931 XLU1.000235 XLB1.002301 show continuous adjusted series; no manual repairs.3 Fixed average21/63/126/252 return and close>SMA200. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Table returns decimals; ATR20 simple mean true range. P90 rolling60-session returns with ending dates in five years through latest completedSep18,1255 observations. Sizes planned only.
symbol|r21|r63|r126|r252|mean|close|SMA200|ATR20|eligible rank|size
XLK|0.032437|-0.008430|0.373015|0.404375|0.200350|189.380000|162.046850|3.140500|1|86.66
XLE|0.011551|0.204635|0.098265|0.473721|0.197043|63.930000|54.987750|1.258000|2|86.66
XLV|-0.041483|0.132069|0.158414|0.248790|0.124448|167.750000|154.588250|2.158500|3|86.66
XLF|-0.028282|0.046241|0.150000|0.048803|0.054190|55.660000|53.263450|0.705500|4|0
XLB|-0.048202|-0.031530|0.055803|0.120216|0.024072|49.760000|49.944450|0.785000|fails|0
XLI|-0.067012|-0.059340|0.040182|0.137616|0.012861|169.300000|170.685250|2.392000|fails|0
XLP|-0.043155|0.000852|0.022880|0.060598|0.010294|82.260000|82.426350|0.885500|fails|0
XLRE|-0.054472|-0.021800|0.030540|0.046910|0.000295|42.180000|42.420400|0.499000|fails|0
XLC|-0.004507|0.015072|-0.014895|-0.055741|-0.015017|110.450000|113.253900|1.601000|fails|0
XLY|-0.063720|-0.050399|0.016236|-0.073585|-0.042867|110.790000|116.321000|1.502000|fails|0
XLU|-0.066362|-0.075878|-0.105067|0.001719|-0.061397|40.800000|43.898750|0.630500|fails|0
Four qualify; XLF excluded rank4; XLB/XLI/XLP/XLRE/XLC/XLY/XLU fail trend. Third-fourth gap7.025715pp. Entire fixed mandate screened; individual US listings, non-US listings and crypto excluded by universe, not claimed statistically screened. Validation complete, no redundant backtest. Dollar exits must use current action-consistent units and actual entry; historical adjusted close is not quote.
universe11
bars_each1332
eligible4
slot86.66
total259.98
rank_spread_pp7.03
R92102 full18 signal table: preserve EEM and budget-feasible XLE
Premises:1 Sep18 HALO112.45>prior252high111.15,volume6.9306x; TH21.19>20.85,volume2.4195x. ATR20 2.63679/1.042385,RSI69.895/67.822,SMA20075.891/13.371. Financing may confound volume; no new weekend bar.2 NKE35.51 belowSMA20049.2956,RSI32.79,momentum20-10.7565%,ATR.9145: downtrend provides context but does not make an unaffordable/failed option pass.3 All seven additional crypto-linked/global US listings fail52weekhigh: IBIT46.02<71.82,ETHA19.92<36.04,COIN194.25<402.16,MSTR153.92<365.21,BABA113.24<190.95,TSM434.67<477.99,ASML1679.92<1997.76. Conclusion: no new breakout from this bounded outer ring; no crypto spot substitute in long-option mandate. Prior broad1595history screen is inherited, not rerun. Exact state all17names recorded as observations. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars SIP/all.
screen_names17
new_outer_names7
new_outer_pass0
HALO_volume_ratio6.93
TH_volume_ratio2.42
NKE_SMA20049.3
NKE_RSI32.79
NKE_mom20_pct-10.76
own_holdings0
R92100 full18 daily signals and raw/adjusted reconciliation
Premises:1 Fresh SIP adjustment=all 1332 unique completed bars per ETF through Sep18.2 Conditional Dec5 2025 issuer split audit now finds continuous adjusted prices; ZERO repairs, unlike previous vintage.3 Fixed mean21/63/126/252 and close>SMA200. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer https://www.ssga.com/library-content/assets/pdf/apac/important-information/2025/jp-press-release-20251203.pdf . All returns decimals; size planned not ordered.
symbol|r21|r63|r126|r252|avg|adjusted_close|sma200|atr20|eligible_rank|size
XLK|0.032437|-0.008430|0.373015|0.404375|0.200350|189.380000|162.046850|3.140500|1|86.66
XLE|0.011551|0.204635|0.098265|0.473721|0.197043|63.930000|54.987750|1.258000|2|86.66
XLV|-0.041483|0.132069|0.158414|0.248790|0.124448|167.750000|154.588250|2.158500|3|86.66
XLF|-0.028282|0.046241|0.150000|0.048803|0.054190|55.660000|53.263450|0.705500|4|0
XLB|-0.048202|-0.031530|0.055803|0.120216|0.024072|49.760000|49.944450|0.785000|-|0
XLI|-0.067012|-0.059340|0.040182|0.137616|0.012861|169.300000|170.685250|2.392000|-|0
XLP|-0.043155|0.000852|0.022880|0.060598|0.010294|82.260000|82.426350|0.885500|-|0
XLRE|-0.054472|-0.021800|0.030540|0.046910|0.000295|42.180000|42.420400|0.499000|-|0
XLC|-0.004507|0.015072|-0.014895|-0.055741|-0.015017|110.450000|113.253900|1.601000|-|0
XLY|-0.063720|-0.050399|0.016236|-0.073585|-0.042867|110.790000|116.321000|1.502000|-|0
XLU|-0.066362|-0.075878|-0.105067|0.001719|-0.061397|40.800000|43.898750|0.630500|-|0
Conclusion XLK/XLE/XLV retained; four eligible. Adjusted latest closes189.38/63.93/167.75 differ from raw189.60/64.31/168.39, not fresh price declines. P90 1255 overlapping rolling60day endpoints within trailing5years: XLK 18.371504%,XLE 20.623381%,XLV 10.626815%. Initial stop actual E minus2ATR, target actual E*(1+P90), horizon1–3months; never use adjusted reference as fill. Dollar indicators require same corporate-action units at execution. Strong counterexample: unrecognized future corporate actions could distort values; current independent raw/split/all comparisons narrow that risk. No strategy revalidation.
bars1332
eligible4
slot86.66
total259.98
third_fourth_pp7.03
repairs0
R92008 broad breakout census and event-name regimes
Premises: completed Sep18 SIP adjusted daily bars, 61 unique most-active/gainer names,54 with253bars and7 short histories. Frozen screen close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5prior20, dollarvolume>=10m produces0. This threshold is a research definition, not a mandate amendment. TJGC alone above prior252high:16.84>12.38, volume1.3072x, dollarvolume43.10m; option_contracts Sep29–Oct30 empty independently excludes executable option. Corporate-action/financing cause unresolved; no claim that April financing caused September move. HALO excluded under prior verified Sep17 convertible/capped-call explanation. NKE35.51<SMA5040.1258<SMA20049.2956, RSI32.7897, ATR20 .9145, volume1.8219x: downtrend not upside breakout. MLKN20.66<SMA5022.3409 but>SMA20018.6825, RSI36.5751, volume3.0194x; mixed regime cannot override expensive illiquid options. IBIT46.02>200DMA42.1075 and ETHA19.92>17.1465, but below prior highs71.82/36.04; no6-event qualified crypto catalyst established. All15 technical rows observations30918–32 use stock-bars; their extra BB option-chain citation is irrelevant to other names and supplies no OI. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
screened61
full_history54
strict_breakouts0
TJGC_volume_multiple1.31
NKE_RSI32.79
MLKN_RSI36.58
R92008 Pre-open order and exit worksheet: no live brackets; explicit cost and gap limits
Premises:1 daily provider bars through completed Sep18 equities and Sep19 crypto, locally excluding Sep20;2 adjustment=all for ETFs,252 return intervals/365 crypto, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, rolling60 return P90 endpoints trailing5years;3 Core trend retired flat with no queues per supplied ledger, own query_trades empty. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Table [{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":761.69,"annual":0.17127216250711208,"sma":712.4730999999999,"atr":6.002450000000005,"p90":0.10841930825440019,"p90_n":1255,"high20":773.38,"eligible":true,"rank":4,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":721.45,"annual":0.2286901578759135,"sma":661.77265,"atr":8.27367999999999,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"p90_n":1255,"high20":724.125,"eligible":true,"rank":2,"size":93.33},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":284.1,"annual":0.20131929468476484,"sma":273.51065,"atr":3.2170000000000045,"p90":0.12821050854556687,"p90_n":1255,"high20":299.61,"eligible":true,"rank":3,"size":93.33},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":104.97,"annual":0.16737099644128106,"sma":101.03105,"atr":1.0289949999999997,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"p90_n":1255,"high20":108.83,"eligible":true,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":67.03,"annual":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"p90_n":1255,"high20":69.125,"eligible":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":401.17,"annual":0.1905214114016085,"sma":416.22065,"atr":7.923445000000004,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"p90_n":1255,"high20":429.42,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":1,"close":81.25,"annual":-0.05709643727515379,"sma":84.36059999999999,"atr":0.6628700000000016,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"p90_n":1255,"high20":83.28,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2088,"pages":1,"close":81239.166,"annual":-0.29782168636543105,"sma":70464.58972958945,"atr":2233.81038940355,"p90":0.36718658848933106,"p90_n":1826,"high20":82233.502538071,"eligible":true,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2088,"pages":1,"close":2632.425,"annual":-0.41123549014783833,"sma":2073.6830831083275,"atr":98.56906743532497,"p90":0.42328883963806774,"p90_n":1826,"high20":2665.72,"eligible":true,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Conclusion top3 remain EEM/QQQ/IWM; sizes conditional on next regular session. GLD/TLT fail SMA, crypto ranks6/7 despite being above SMA; negative annual return alone is not an extra exclusion. Five-year P90 is a historical distribution, not forecast probability. Data-adjustment errors could alter ranks; no new discrepancy found. No strategy retest under fixed validated mandate.
selected3
planned279.99
per_lot93.33
equity1000
fund_cap280
08UTC full sector signal refresh and Monday brackets