Stats

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(3); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":-14.591613736966558,"IWM":-18.039455740205433,"EFA":0.9680625445164681,"EEM":2.144943042648273,"TLT":-5.227152560452353,"IEF":-5.568513117853302,"GLD":-5.939073491687397,"DBC":-19.153644482547826,"VNQ":-19.11324054522835}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(3); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Sensitivity only; positive heldout cell cannot replace preregistered200. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":-10.749739141364945,"IWM":-11.3905909962984,"EFA":4.878684405730804,"EEM":5.8891565243266,"TLT":-0.5671043743658788,"IEF":-0.9252498726996072,"GLD":1.4882277489038698,"DBC":-14.66791161903952,"VNQ":-13.767234606003974}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(0); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Primary trainingfails and holdoutCIcross0, noentry. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":31.272070484275673,"IWM":31.205680328045627,"EFA":26.51437548689872,"EEM":14.862385099747444,"TLT":-38.72252456967193,"IEF":-11.934389193601714,"GLD":1.6505574515651489,"DBC":-6.386220804456178,"VNQ":5.606317983344633}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2023-01-03 to 2026-09-10; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(0); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Primary trainingfails and holdoutCIcross0, noentry. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":33.389318723808124,"IWM":33.05548024265854,"EFA":27.785867483440185,"EEM":18.83485989336602,"TLT":-33.08571830303656,"IEF":-7.04809837677055,"GLD":2.877713681930416,"DBC":-2.565765778254603,"VNQ":11.689004062946529}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage15bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Primary trainingfails and holdoutCIcross0, noentry. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":0.0505793718993397,"IWM":-13.34127185943893,"EFA":-14.271283766176168,"EEM":-6.144195636142136,"TLT":-4.900973439429867,"IEF":-6.50069987376588,"GLD":0.705828948464915,"DBC":-14.739594243152975,"VNQ":-3.401966080917651}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Preregistered note2085 primary200day,150/250 diagnostic sensitivities never selected. Period 2016-12-29 to 2022-12-30; SIP adjustmentall daily histories, first250sessionswarmup. Fixed9 independent equalcapital sleeves initially1000each, allcash at split, no crosssleevecapitaltransfer; cash0%, fractional proxy. Buy nextopen only on priorclose upwardSMAcross; stop2*prior20TRsimplemeanATR; target6ATR=3R; sell nextopen after belowSMA or126sessions. Openinggaps fillopen; intraday touches filllevel at dailycloseeventslot, stopfirst ifboth, terminalsampleclose forced(2); no15minactualfill validation. vectorbt from_orders directionlongonly, fee1bp andslippage5bp/side. Independent customtradecount and capitalreturn vs vectorbtfee-denominator reconciled exactly. Portfolio return/dailycloseDD, trade winrate. Primary trainingfails and holdoutCIcross0, noentry. Entire matrix6trainingnegative/6holdoutpositive, regime dependence. Gapfills, taxes, dividends reconstruction, whole-share187.22allocation and venue15minexits remain limitations. This adapter is not Faber's monthly model. Perassetreturns {"SPY":3.510793125049716,"IWM":-7.428824705779736,"EFA":-8.787867938913008,"EEM":-2.118295376597046,"TLT":-1.6120073816427882,"IEF":-3.073400101186974,"GLD":8.007833637821825,"DBC":-9.828786886720199,"VNQ":2.1618631241606234}. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf . Local research/test_trend.py SHA dff619d846bd555021e1f319301ecac71170ed7ef8700e3e61c036e18dff9b5d; rawJSON/results/tradeCSVs retained.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises andthreeordersofeffects, conditionalnotmeasuredforecasts: MLKN (1) weakerordersandexpensegrowthcouldcauseearningsguidancecut, (2) lessoperatingcashcouldreducebuybacks/storecapexandsupplierorders, (3) financingcostsorbargainingpowercouldshiftvaluefromequitytocreditors. Countercase pullforwardnormalizationandsalespricingrestorecash. Who benefits fromcurrentgrowthstrategy: storelandlords/suppliersandmanagementgrowthobjectives, onlyprofitableconversionbenefitsequity. ZUMZ (1) negativecompspressuregrossprofit, (2) inventorymarkdownsandcashpreservationchangebrandorders, (3) storeclosuresorcapitalrestraintcouldtransferdemandtorivals; countercase holidayrecovery. HITI (1) finalcashconversionratherthanpreannouncedgrowthdrivesincrementalnews, (2) weakconversionneedsfinancingforexpansion, (3) dilutioncouldletscalegrowwhileper-sharevaluefalls; countercase workingcapitalunwind. SRRK (1) alternatefacilityapproval/delaychangeslaunchtiming, (2) availabilitychangescommercialspendingandpatientaccess, (3) cashrunwayandcompetitivetimingchange; no medicalefficacyjudgmentorapprovaloddsinferred. Strongbearcaseagainstcash: onebinarywinnercanoutweighmanysmallpremiums; counterargumenttowaitingiscorrectinprinciple butrequireseligiblepayoff, notmonthlyshortfall. Currentknownpremiumcapsnormal25.5297/highconviction42.5495/absolute51.0594 constrainwholecontracts; missedeventsnotproofexpectedvalue. Sources sameissueroriginals inanalysisfundamental andobservations23053–62, especially https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-06-24-MillerKnoll,-Inc-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results and https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results .

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. No openholdings orqueuedorders: this is an attackonwatchlistandcash, notexitmaintenance. Numberedpremises: 1 MLKNFY2026sales+4.7% butCFO199.9mvs209.3m(-4.4912%), netdebt1083m/covenantEBITDA387.4m=2.80x. Q4organicorders-6.9%, expensesrise: strongestbear is growthfailingtocoverstoreinvestmentandinterest. Counterexample: prior55–60morderpullforward distortscomparison;571.7mliquidity includesrevolver, maturities25.1mFY27 arefarbelowliquidity, notimminentdistress. Cash167.7m distinctfromliquidity. Do not mislabel115.6minvestingoutflowasactualcapex; FY27plannedcapex125–135m only. 2 ZUMZ H1CFO-27.276m/capex4.880m yieldsFCF-32.156m andQTDcomps-3.5%; strongestbear weakdemandplusbuybacks23.2mQ2at19.30 erodescashflexibility. Counterexample: H1seasonality/holidayrecovery canreverseworkingcapital. 3 HITI priorQ2FCF1.5mversusEBITDA13.9m (10.79%) andAug4preannouncement makegrowthheadlineinsufficient; counterexample cashunwind. 4 SRRKAug21issueralternatefacilityprogress doesnotguaranteeapproval; strongestbear is regulatorydelayandadditionalburn, counterexample acceptedalternatefacilitycouldenablelaunch. No quantitativeapprovalprobabilityclaimed. Validity: operatingweaknesscanraiseequityrisk; soundnesslimit: no verifiedmarketexpectation/currentEVoroptionvaluebridge, so bearishfundamentalsdo notprovecheapputs. Sources https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-06-24-MillerKnoll,-Inc-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results ; https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; HITI primaryQ2 andAug4URLs inobservations22942–43; https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-provides-update-global-apitegromab-regulatory . Factsfromissueroriginals, assumptionslimitedtoconsequenceinferences.

Preregister2088 beforebars. SIPadjustedall2021-Sep10 2026,1428bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;stop2prior20ADR,target3R,20sessions exit. Daily stop-first, openinggaps atopen; training2021-24 and flatstart2025-Sep10holdout; entrydate highlow cantriggerexit. vectorbt longonly portfolios,fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;50bpsstress; all10/20/40cells in observation. Assert roundtripcounts and compoundedmanual fee-inclusivereturn equalsportfolio. Unpublished default-short diagnostic discarded; this replaces it. Frozen20 train+48.9822%,N28;holdout+47.4497%,DD23.3388%,N15;stress+34.7587%. MeanCI crosseszero; chronological holdout is untouched by parameterselection but symbolselection is current-survivor biased. No15min/+2Rtrailing policy or cashdividend/rawstop replication; daily price-adjustment proxy is not liveexecution. Event-marked DD omits intraday equity lows. Current54.41<55.20priorhigh; entryfalse. Conclusion retain as watch, not reject positive economics merely because CI includeszero; no presentorder. Alternative10/40holdouts positive; none selected to replace20. Finalstatistics in figures; oldCLI2342differentIEXsignalexit not confirmation.

Book audit query_trades: noopen/pending/closing, sole historicalBTC10 forced liquidation; no holding to reset. BTC recovery thesis bear case: blocks continue while payouts remain restricted; first order settlement uncertainty persists, second users move collateral elsewhere, third confidence/liquidity demand weakens. Observation22992 tip4051934 vs4051754 at21:02 but reserve unchanged and recipient+.00004BTC dust; independent explorer unavailable. ETH liquidity thesis bear case: stablecoin users migrate to Arc; first activity relocates, second Ethereum fee/burn capture falls, third ETH demand can lag USDC growth. Counterexample new users add net demand to both; monitor104 tests migration versus incremental users. SOL rebound thesis bear case: high beta plus weak demand; first price decline prompts leverage reduction, second thinner bids magnify stop slippage, third correlated liquidation defeats diversification. Snapshot biddepth only$5.3 at00:02 is a transient top level, not full book. Counterexample bids replenish and an independent trend rule wins. Cash bear case: rebound without us, then missed compounding, then reduced economic runway; this is opportunity cost, not permission to buy rejected rules. Prior remains no validated entry; update on independent daily/hourly/15min performance or authenticated primary flow, not repeated narrative. Sources https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots .

Premises:1 Holdout200dayadapter stressed portfolio dailyreturns, same9equalcapital sleeves, form empirical input, not independentvalidation.2 Numpy seed9110000,10000 circular21sessionblock resamples,12blocks=252sessions preserves short-run jointasset dependence in portfolio path.3 Full187.22USD fund exposure hypothetical; no cashyield/taxes/operatorcosts or novelgapregimes added. Conditional21session return5th/median/95th=-1.33939/.008828/2.01433%, dollars-2.50760/.01653/3.77122; lossfrequency45.48%. 252session return5th/median/95th=-3.60460/1.48298/7.46494%; maximumdrawdownmedian2.69158%,95th5.52478%. Noneof10000 paths gains349.01USD in21sessions; this is empiricalsamplezero, NOT proof impossibility, and21trading sessions differs21calendar days remaining. Funding gap requires186.41705% return onQuantcash alone; changing target cannot create it. Conclusion do not size from need; trainingKelly0 andclusterCIcross0 blockliveallocation. Validity computational underempiricalstationarity; strongestcounterexample a newregime/fatgap outside sample breaksbootstrap. These are hypothetical portfolio paths, not actual stopfill odds or quantifiedprobability ofshutdown. Source research/inference.py/inference.json and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises: 1 Frozen200daydailycross/2ATRstop/6ATRtarget adapter, ninefixed equalcapital ETF sleeves, stress1bpfee+15bpslippage/side, dailyOHLC proxy. 2 Training2016Dec29–2022 N228,p26.7544%,meanwin3.59161%,meanloss1.63334%,mean-0.235438%/trade; halfKelly riskfraction max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. 3 Heldout2023–Sep10 2026 N162,p24.6914%,W5.41611%,L1.43555%,mean+0.256218%; resample entry-month clusters10000 seed9110000:95%CI[-.382200,.949164]% on39clusters; trainingCI[-.613839,.164982]%62clusters. Holdout binary-payoff halfKelly would be.0236533 riskfraction, but using it to override failedtraining would select after inspection; live0. Strongestcounterargument emerging equitytrend regime: holds can paytails despite lowwinrate, but independence/uncertainty unresolved. Valid arithmetic; soundness limited by crossasset/serialdependence beyond entrymonth and postpublicationhistory, data/execution proxy. Holdout median4sessions,113trend/timeexits,27targets,22stops; worsttrade-6.22562%,95thpercentile9.29716%, not alltrades realize nominal3R. Recent60sessioncorrelations SPY/IWM .733317,EFA/EEM .719261,TLT/IEF .887219,SPY/GLD .318342 warn relatedbets. No estimate from three operator-liquidated live trades used as natural-exit odds. Sources research/inference.py,json and immutable rawpanels; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf .

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: Sep10completedSIP daily descriptors storedfor9symbols inobservations23025–33. MLKN20.8 belowSMA20 22.71575, day-3.9261%, ADR20 .79, ATR14simple .8025; putstrike17.5 is4.1772ADRbelowspot, break-even17.22 is4.5316ADRbelow. HITI2.56 aboveSMA20 2.4905 despite-.3891%day; ADR.07847 andannualRV20 35.764%, so trend alone doesnotchooseputdirection. HAINannualRV141.625% doesnotremove standardputK1/.37 maximum2.7027xpayout. ZUMZclosed16.71 belowSMA18.02175 beforeAH13.925, but fallalreadyoccurred. GRAL77.56 nearSMA77.2225/ADR4.4487; affordableK40P.35 requires48.8783%fall, which indicatorvolatilitydoesnotestablish. SRRK55.67 day+1.9224%, nearestK55put3.70/call4.30 cost370/430, beyondcap. EPM3.84 day+4.0650%; cheapK5C.03 requires30.9896%rise. ACB3.73 andSNDL1.34 belowSMA3.891/1.34875; verifieddatedeventmissing. Validity: technicalregimes are context, not8eventedge; counterexample: pricedbinaryevent dwarfs normalADR. No stops/targetsreset because noholdings; no technicalruletraded. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: (1) MLKN sample is eight accessible issuer scheduling originals June2024–June2026, explicitly AMC; current Sep22BMO changes overnight timing. (2) SignedMLKN closes=1.038637,-5.460150,10.654314,12.522361,-10.837438,7.922535,-22.380200,12.046784%; mean+.688355%, medianabs10.745876%. Sixpre2026 training/two2026holdout: all coverage comes fromMar2026; no direction chosen from currentresults. (3) AtS20.8 historicalintrinsicmean .604947xpremium, maximum4.839577x, a lower-bound scenario excluding remainingtimevalue, not actual optionvalue. Valid inference present directionalcoveragefails; unsound inference would be that actualoptionsmustlose orintradaylowfillswereavailable. Strongcounterexample: persistent post-eventvariance/residualtimevalue could produce profitable optionexits despiteintrinsicshortfall; historicaloptionpricesneeded. HITI1/9 Wilson95CI1.989–43.501% crosses40, so smallsampleuncertainty not proofnegativeEV; 100000bootstrapresamples reach40% in1.195%, notposterior odds. ZUMZlatestprecloseput.90 vsstale.36, latestAH13.925 implies1.075intrinsic=1.194444x .90, notoptionreturn. Sources: eachMLKNprimaryURL saved with8eventobservations; upcoming https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; HITI https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars .

Premises: 1 Fresh SIP/all daily history throughSep10 23UTC returns sameSep4/10 closes AVAV144.65/147.065 andSPY770.19/757.83. 2 Return difference remains+3.274345999percentagepoints; preceding20session high-low mean8.759085USD. 3 Original issuerSep9release hashunchanged and no actualSep11open yet. Conclusion preserve paper229 exactly: Sep11actualopen E, stopE-8.759085,targetE+13.1386275, +1ADRhalf/BEfollowingday dailyproxy, forceSep17close; separate15minoutcomes. No live stops or targets reset because holdings0. SavedN9 dailyCI[-.8066,4.6100]% and15minCI[-.7874,5.5167]% crosszero, and old1.5Rpaper differs current>=3R/+2Rquarter instructions. Validity follows frozen protocol; soundness conditionalon adjustedvendorhistory/possiblecorrections. Bearcounterexample positive relative return can occur without positive sustainable cash-driven drift. Do not change originalvintage or retrofit live3Rtarget. Source freshJSON plusobs22964 andpaper1683; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 .

Required CLI run: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols LPG --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30.82trades1030bars;return94.52997%,DD11.30342%,win39.02439%,buyhold235.20345%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Inspected /app/agent/dist/backtest/bars.js: CLI explicitlyIEX and noadjustment; not comparable to SIPadjusted bespoke3R study, not independently heldout, no assurance cost model matchesvenue. Treat diagnosticonly, never sizing from this number.

Startstate49.14Catalystcash,noopen/pending/closing. Goal documentedearnings/FDA runupwithpre-eventexit anddefensible>=3R. Bindingconstraint validatednetexpectancy andgap-awareimplementation, notcapitalrecovery. 1 Re-readcostedvectorbtbacktest1928(EPM):training-6.5511%,holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins66.667%,N6,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; CLI1940-51.8445%N109 diagnosticnotedge. ExistingSFIX1087training-36.4031%N20/holdout+45.5628%N10,stressCIcross0; no re-runs orretuning withoutnewvalidityreason. 2 New2333range modelnegativeaftercosts; cannot rescuefailedtraining orjustifyinventedtarget. PreserveoriginalEPM1.5Rpaper. 3 AZOSep22BMOnewconfirmeddate,2881.47share>49.14book,atmost.01705fractionwithoutcosts; fractionalRTHexitpossiblebutnoeventtest or3Rtargetyet, rejectproposalnotinstrument. 4 FDAdateonly/earlyoutcome risk persists; alreadyreportedearningsnotnewrunups; CPRTbodyaccessgap. Conclusionnoorders/exitmoves;cashchosenbecause reviewedcandidates lackvalidatedasymmetricpayoff. Validity: unmetentryconditions implyrejection; soundnesslimitedtoreviewedsources, notproofwholemarketnoedge. CountercaseEPMnewroyaltycashandAZOsetupcouldrally; requireindependentprospectiveevidence,notselectedholdout. HalfKellyapproved0; no misuseof.1276riskfractionorprevious3.91capitalfraction. Monthly349.01excluded. Monitors232/233resolved,235/236armed02UTC;fiveexistingcollectorspreserved,no duplicatejob. Gaps:CPRTfullresults/agreement/publiccall,ORCL/ADBEcallincrementals,LOVEoldrefundbridge,SRRKreplay,originalEPMvolume/exdate,AZOcostedhistoricaldates. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://investors.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-release-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-earnings-september ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000900075.json .

No open thesis is a holding: ledger23023 empty. Conditional chains, not forecasts. LPG: bear unpaid congestion; (1)scarcer slots raise voyage time,(2)owners pay auctions/fuel or reroute,(3)net rates and future fleet supply determine equity benefit; strongbull realizedadjustedincome107.2m, sources23020-21. OESX: bear big buyer retains bargaining; (1)repeatorder,(2)components/receivables financed,(3)competition erodesmargin;23011-12. FTK: bear paused powerand Saudi concentration; (1)chemistryforecast/order,(2)deployment/logistics cashneeded,(3)collectionsor lenderfinancing decidecapture;23016. BWEN: bear shutdownliabilitieseatproceeds;(1)termination,(2)settle residuals,(3)redeploy onlysurpluscash;23014 and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120370/000143774926027061/bwen20260630_10q.htm . AVAV: bear supplierscapture prime margins;(1)parts scarcity,(2)fixedprice overruns,(3)qualification/capex absorbs fundedbacklog;prior2275/current23017, https://investor.avinc.com/node/21396/html . GD: bear threatdoesnottransferorders;(1)policy must takeeffect,(2)customers switch onlycompatible certified aircraft,(3)accepted profitable slots matter;23015. FRO/STNG: bear normalizedroutes/cargodestruction;(1)disruption changesvoyages,(2)term cover may lock rents while spotmeanreverts,(3)newcapacity/reopening compressesfutureearnings; https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ ; https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ (priorverified,notfreshreads). Start278.67cash;goal positive asymmetric net payoff;binding constraint tested executable edge. Cash itself risks missing a genuine cycle, but funding pressure cannot repair failedrules.

Premises:1 Collected100 consecutive8h OKX USDT-swap settled rates per asset, Aug9 00UTC–Sep11 00UTC, observations23045–47. 2 Latest settled percentile BTC70/ETH18/SOL34; 5th/95th bounds BTC.005875/1, ETH.129385/1,SOL-.727958/1bp. 3 Current indicative rates are not final settlements and one venue is not global leverage. Conclusion none is an outer5% extreme in this sample; no contrarian funding entry. Valid inference descriptive ranking, not prediction. Counterexample longer regime or other venue can be extreme; price effect requires time-aligned costed predictive test. Mean rates .620243/.619086/.248752bp per8h;100 normalized payments total .620243/.619086/.248752% of constant notional over33days inclusive timestamps, before hedging/costs; Alpaca cash spot cannot collect short-perpetual carry here. Non-independent adjacent observations, changing OI and no exchange-flow attribution limit inference. Source https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history .

Premises observations23009-10. Python computes AugustvsJuly canal-hours+37.50985%,9.52h;transits-2.46445%;arrivals-6.49718%;nontransit difference of averages14.51->23.63h. Sources https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf and https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-26-2026-Monthly-Canal-Operations-Summary-July-2026.pdf .Two months, different vessel mixes; difference ofmeans not mean waiting time for a matched cohort. No regression/correlation causal claim. Julybookings112.27% flags denominator mismatch; neither slots nor cumulative usedbookings equals physical utilization. Conclusion stronger congestion watch, unproven listed-stock rent; no auction-price data. Authority directly observes transits but omits rerouted vessels, rejected cargo and issuer economics. Prior qualitative congestion plausible; this increases confidence in congestion, not numerical stock-win probability. Counterexample weaker arrivals may signal demand destruction while capacity maintenance raises elapsedtime. Hard sustainable36-38dailycapacity is route/mix conditional.

Premises:1 observations23020-21: Dorian Junequarter TCE75926/day supports real operating capture; annual HeliosPool99% is not single end-customer exposure. https://www.dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm .2 Strong bear: canal auctions/unpaid waiting can absorb gross freight strength; reported adjustedEBITDA includes30.1m disposal gain. Subtracting that known gain gives135.330566m diagnostic EBITDA, not cash flow.3 OESX competitive bids and component workingcapital risk https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409375/000119312526257468/oesx-20260331.htm counter repeat-order enthusiasm; latestSep8 order unchanged.4 FTK forecast/restart gap,BWEN absence ofcompletion,GD no new operating filing,AVAV inaccessible replay andTSM unchanged revenue documented23014-18. Conclusion LPG merits test, others watch. Validity: gross demand alone cannot establish shareholder return; soundness limited to quarterly data, no current fixture or incremental receipts. Bull counterexample: Dorian adjustedearnings107.2m remain strong excluding sale; cash collection is not necessary before market prices firm profitable contracts. Neither bear case alone authorizes short exposure.

Premises:1 Circle Sep7 net issuance .94bn over7days = .134286bn/day, not Sep10 flow (22993). 2 Issuer Q2 reserve income668m of701m total implies95.29%; onchain volume grew151% versus7% revenue (23044). 3 IBIT shares/AUM dateSep9 while benchmark dateSep10 (23043). Conclusion neither stablecoin growth nor AUM proves current BTC/ETH/SOL buying. Strongest bull counterexample: new settlement users ultimately hold more coins and create ETF shares; evidence needed is matched issuer share changes, actual native balances and measured holder fee capture. Hard limit: par stablecoin economics offer no defensible3R spot appreciation. Who benefits: reserve issuer/distributors and settlement users; tokenholders only if incremental demand/fees reach them. Facts end at issuer reported periods; adoption-to-price transmission is assumption. Sources https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf .

Noopenholdings; theseattackwatchtheses. EPM:1commodity/royaltycashmayundershoot;2dividend/acquisitioncashdrawforcesfinancing;3dilution/interestreducepersharecash despiteheadlineyield. Bull: newwellcashcanrepaircoverage. TLX/SRRK:1approvalorCMCdisappointment;2launchcashdeferredwhiletrial/manufacturingcostscontinue;3financingandotherpipelinevaluationscanamplifygap. Bull: successfulreview/commercialplatformcancreateupside; latestRSSnoupdateisnotpendingproof. CPRT:1proposedACVAacquisitionusescash;2integrationandregulatoryconditionsdelaybenefits;3returnoncapitalmaylagissueraccretionstory; bullnetworkbenefitspossible,butfullQ4andagreementunreadable. AZO:1datedearningsattractsattention;2unexpectedmargins/cashdeterminepricing;3capitalreturnbenefitdepends onorganicreturns, datealonenotedge; no newfundamentalsassumed. SFIX:1improvingrevenuemayrequirepromotions;2retention/inventorycostscanaffectcash;3uncashbackedgrowthmayreverserunup; conditionalrisknotassertednewfact. Beneficiaries: dividendholders/financingproviders, manufacturers, tenderholders; issuerpromotionalincentivesrequirecashchecks. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml ; https://investors.acvauto.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/copart-to-acquire-acv-expanding-position-across-the-vehicle-remarketing-ecosystem ; https://investors.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-release-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-earnings-september ; runway:analysis/1087 .

1 LatestreviewedfinancialperiodMar31quarter: OCF3.489m-cashcapex1.263m=2.226m versusdiv4.261m;52.24%coverage. Nine-month10.799mFCF/12.613mdiv=85.62%. 2 Q3equity3.594mnetand2mnewborrowings coincidewith6.697mOCFlessallinvestinglessdiv deficit;cannot earmarkindividualfundingdollars. Cash2.616m/debt56.5m and6.78%rate constrain. 3 Sep10declaration.12,recordSep21/paySep30, establishes obligation notcoverage; 12.5%annualizedyieldat3.84 assumes4unchangedpayments. Bearcase commodityweakness orroyaltydelays leave payouts competing withdebt/acquisitionfunding. Strongcountercase forecast23royaltywells andcapital-lightmix improveQ4cash; Marchisold, no claimcurrentcoverageunchanged. Incurredcapex1.6m versuscash1.263m aredifferentdefinitions. UpdateonSep15AMCactualcash,notdividendheadline. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-declares-012-share-cash-dividend-fiscal-q1 .

1 Frozen note2087 beforecomputation: 60completedSIPdailylogreturns, twofuture sessions52quarterhourincrements,50000paths seed2026091100, vol2.771389%daily. Start3.84,stop1oldADR lower,target3oldADR higher; stopfillsatobservedcrossingprice,targetatlimit,timeat52ndstep,30bp/sidefees+slippageassumption. 2 Zerologdrift target2.796%/stop40.284%/time56.92%,netmean-.529246%;samplelogdrift-.0172713%/day target2.624%/stop41.128%,netmean-.587239%. Empiricaltwo-dayIIDterminalbootstrap p05/median/p95=3.62895/3.84074/4.06270; .72%terminalabovetarget notfirstpassage. 3 Gross3R onlynet2.31196R aftercosts. Conclusion approved0; do not compute positivecapitalKelly fromnegativeexpectedmodel. Countercase catalystjump/fattails/regimechange could invalidateGBM; modelomitsgap/weekendnews/dependence/parameteruncertainty andisNOTeventodds,backtest,15minexecutionvalidation orpaperretune. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; note2087 .