Stats

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-189]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 54trades, mean 0.689527%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-0.960180,2.353536]%, p=37.0370%, W=5.9756%, L=2.4199%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.057695. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 15bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 190trades, mean 1.011710%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-0.048485,2.130268]%, p=38.4211%, W=8.2380%, L=3.4970%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.061405. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 15bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 48trades, mean -0.511591%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-2.046171,0.966631]%, p=33.3333%, W=4.4882%, L=3.0115%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.000000. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 189trades, mean 1.268803%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[0.218449,2.374473]%, p=39.6825%, W=8.3631%, L=3.3985%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.075857. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Premises:1 AQR2014 original 12month skip1month rank is evidence for momentum, not this adapter: https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf .2 Frozen note2124: nine original sector ETFs, prior-month-end close[t-21]/close[t-252]-1, positive top3; next-sessionopen, three fixed independent cash sleeves, no leverage; drop-rank monthly/63session exit;2ATRstop6ATRtarget; +2R dailyhigh makes BE effective followingday; gapopen actualproxy, samebar stopfirst.3 SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars requested2009 but received2016onward; warmup means first252ruletrades2017, zero pre2016data. Frozen2019split retained, not moved to improve results. vectorbt longonly cashsharing every daily equity/tradecount reconciled. Fee1bp eachside plus 5bpslip; corporateaction totalreturn not independently rebuilt; no taxes/cashyield/operatorcosts. 47trades, mean -0.085267%, entrymonthcluster3000bootstrapCI[-1.710557,1.616211]%, p=38.2979%, W=4.4972%, L=2.9296%; plug-inhalfKellyrisk=0.000000. Primary252training negative; positive189neighbor cannot replace preregistered rule. Historicalholdout may overlap prior research; dailyBEproxy not15minliveproof. Reject live adoption; positiveholdout retained for prospective research. Artifacts research/test_sector.py, sector_results.json, percelltrades/returns.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [1.8919149420659975,2.5688714251883793]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.8509001136851805,3.2089441420326583]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [2.300303974275275,2.9799737404206494]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.4535044521155866,3.6226119078948753]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [1.8919149420659975,2.5688714251883793]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.851148076970896,3.2089441420326583]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [2.300303974275275,2.9799737404206494]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.453753409253325,3.6226119078948753]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

17foreign instruments screened from Yahoo6monthcharts withcurrentUTCdate excluded:14equities valid50dayhistory,0combined20high/SMA50signals;KAP37bars invalid andquote2022 stale. BrentSep9close101.21>prior97.92 has signal buthistoryone session behind latestquote, futures not offered; no translating oilcontractsignal into stock withouttest. Hynix20return23.20% yet1853000<prior1856000;Prysmian126.95<prior131.4 andSMA127.013. Sources perobservations23496-23548 https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ . Crypto9venue pairs asof~02:01: all previous completedUTCday open-close negative;PAXGspread1.1651%,BTC.0161%,ETH.0325%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots . PAXGphysicalgoldlink doesnot establish incremental fabrication scarcity rent; genericBTC/ETH/SOLmomentum belongscrypto and no concrete ASIC/power-to-token captureidentified. Reject purchasingtokens merely because oil/power scarce; rising energycosts can hurtminers. This is descriptivecurrent screen, not backtest or proofnoedgeexists. Regional data timestamps/FXnotcomparable; retainedstaleunknowns.

1 July16 issuer Q2 https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf : oil135427b/d,realized89.4USD/bbl,72%oilvolumeexported,allnetoilrevenuesat exportparity. 2 EBITDA805.2m/70%margin;CFO985.1m benefits274.2m workingcapitalrelease;capex466.8m andinvestmentcash886m includes391.9m Equinortransaction. ReportedFCF99.1m,491m excludingtransaction; subtract WC release from excludingtransaction proxy gives216.8m, not companyFCFdefinition. 3 Netdebt3056.8m,proforma leverage1.25x vs actual1.41x; weak oil or exportrestrictions can reverse uplift. 4 Sep8 https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/UCcll6qdM3wStAUl_Vista-announces66.8MMboeofestimatedP1reservesinBandurriaSurandBajodelToro.pdf adds66.8MMboe acquisition reserves asofDec31,2025,not freshproduction;40.7developed26.1undeveloped;proforma654.9MMboe. Conclusion potential beneficiary outside currentbook; cashcapture stronger than simply backloggedequipment, but untested entry and oil beta remain. Counterexample to prior 'all scarcity rents stay withtankers': efficient exporter can benefit if delivered. Binding constraint exportaccess/netrealization and marginal reinvestment, not undergroundreserves. No order until fixedrule test and sizing.

Premises1 scanned13209NASDAQ/otherlistingsecuritynames,165crypto-keywordmatches plusissuer-linkedSLE. 166barrequests,165with>=21bars,HBIT10bars;4staleBIXI/BIXIW/KOYNW/KOYNU. 2 LiquidityleadersMSTR128.56/prior20high144.92,IBIT43.68/46.37,IREN43.64/49.29,COIN172.28/195.85,BMNR24.20/26.91,ETHA18.56/19.135; no breakout. 3 OnlyrawsignalsWTIB36.3428>35.16,DAAQU11.76>11.50,KOYNW.236>.22; prior20mean$volume13478.91/4307.34/1536.41,KOYNWstaleSep9. Conclusion no liquidmajor-linkedentry; ETFWTIBbundlesoilandbitcoinusingleverage perissuer,notisolatedcryptoedge; units/warrantsdifferfromunderlyingandnoindependentnettests. Thisnewcensus reachesbeyondholdingsbutnamefilterisnotexhaustivebusinessclassification. Counterexampleaquietproductcanhaveunderlyingliquidity; executablequote/spreadandhistorywouldberequired,notsimplyassumedfromETFwrapper. Rejectallcurrentorders,retainBTC/ETHdirectwatch. Source https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.uscfinvestments.com/wtib .

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days730 --stop-pct6 --target-pct18. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . BTCreturn24.5117%,DD15.4848%,win32.6531%,N49;ETH38.7083/DD24.9433/win23.6842/N38;SOL25.1113/DD28.5687/win48.5714/N35;731bars each. Code audit: CLI same-closeentry, priorclosehigh rather than intradayhigh; exitsnextbarunlessanotherbreakout; idealintrabarstop/target,zero fees/slippage,noseparateholdout,andfetchdoesnotpaginate. Thus differentrule fromfrozen20/10daychannel andcannotvalidatecurrent15minuteexecution. Premises: attractivegrossreturnsareplausible diagnosticoutput; missingcosts,timingandholdoutcanreverseedge. Reject usefororders; separatevectorbtlongonlycredit-fee train/holdout study underway. No grossCLIreturn usedforKelly.

Premises1 Aug18SECissuerrelease proposes contribution of existing2100BTC+$2.5m intoSLE, for44,859,400commonsharesat$3 pluspreferred/warrants; groupconsolidationretained. 2 FuturefinancingcouldfundadditionalBTCbutterms/closingconditions matter; expectedQ4notexacteventdate. 3 Sep11sample3350.T247JPY(-8.856%)doesnotestablishdiscounttofullydilutedNAV. Firstorder: plannedcorporaterestructuring reallocatesexistingcoins. Secondorder: two capitalmarketsmayexpandfinancingaccess butpreferreddividends/seniority impairsimpleBTCpershareinference. Thirdorder: onlysubsequentincrementalnetpurchasescouldtransmitdemandtoBTC. Strongestbullcase widerinvestoraccess; counterexample warrants andseniorclaims absorbupside evenwithmorecoins. Benefitscontrolandfinancingoptionalitytosponsor; no currentspotflowconclusion. Reject stockorBTCpurchasefromheadlineamount; currentclosingstatus,fullcapitalstructure,valuationandcostedstockedge unverified. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621672/000143774926028268/ex_1006303.htm .

Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and otherlisted.txt; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . 13,176 non-test unique directory entries,12,584 snapshots,12,305 comparable daily/prior bars;8,228 usable datedSep10. Filter nonETF,price>=3,IEXdaily dollarvolume>=2m,freshSep10 yields1,565;486up,1073down,6flat. Median-0.82038%,5/95pct-5.07313/+2.14157;Spearman(return,volume ratio to previousbar)-.05998. Broad marketweakness, not evidence eachdecline is shortage. IEX not consolidated liquidity; stale/missing bars and securities with special ticker formats not evaluated as liquid. InitialSIP403,then excessive batchrate429; recovered permittedIEX via300symbolbatched1sec spacing. Current-listing survival and daily selection preclude historical screener alpha claims. SWKS+9.84/QRVO+6.79 RF consolidation,VIST+5.68exportenergy selected;ALM-9.63/LEU-8.55 challenge commodityrent narrative. Non-supply top WLTH/CLOV/TYRA rejected for mandate, not priceforecast. Screened directory-wide, not complete all-listing price coverage.

Premises1 issuerSep10shares1,387,360,000 vsSep9 1,387,800,000 in23043, decrease440000(-.031705%). 2 Multiplying sharechange by43.67 NAV gives-19.2148m valuationequivalent; netassetsdecline1005.8836m is mainly marking existingholdings. 3 Roundedbasket22.65BTC/40000shares would imply249.15BTCequivalent for11baskets; actualsettlement/timedspotflow unknown. Conclusion newnegativecreationcontext, not an independently tested sell/buy signal. Validity: matchedsharesbeatsAUMasflowproxy; soundness depends on no interveningcorporateaction andissuerrounding. Strongestcounterexample in-kindredemptionmaynotproducespotmarket sale. Issuer/delivery participantsbenefit fromproduct liquidity butadministrativeflows are notdirectionalconviction. NoaggregateETFflow extrapolation fromonefund. Source https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf . Previousperiodgap partlyclosed;ETHA remainsunmatched.

Edge test: Twelve chronological issuer-confirmed AMC earnings fromSep2023–Jun2026. Daily SIP adjustmentall eventclose to nextsessionclose: median absolute10.624339%, range-20.081522% to+17.742559%. Sep10S8.17, Oct16C10 catalog.45Sep9/currentdelayedbar.40Sep10 implies+27.294982%; Oct16P7 catalog.47Sep9/currentdelayed.50Sep10 implies-20.440636%. Bothcover0/12 closingresponses (<40%); no documented expectedoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. Strike7 put distance14.320685% pluspremium6.119951% consumes eventtail. Premises:1 datesfrom12primaryschedules saved observations;2 daily responses frozen atclose, not bestlow;3 contractexpiry32days afterSep14event satisfies weekbuffer but residualvalue unmodeled. Valid inference: this empirical hurdle fails. Notvalid to infer actualoptionprice equalsintrinsic or 0%futurewinprobability. Counterexample future turnaround shock/IV expansion could exceedhistory, needs independentcostedvaluation. Priors no direction selectedfromoutcome; chronologicalarchivefourpages withoutreturnfilter; postpandemic/capitalstructure/regime shifts limitexchangeability. Hypothetical defaultexitSep11RTH, noholdthrough: requiredmove exceedsmedian9.816297pp put/16.670642pp call. No liveorder. Sources issuer https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 and /data/stock-bars,/data/option-bars; catalog via option_contracts.

Premises1 CircleSep7 circulation74.28bn,7daynet+.94bn/30day+2.22bn/365day+1.88bn, rates134.286/74/5.151mUSDperday. 2 DefiLlamaSep11total74.212069483bn is .17393655bn belowSep10; Solana declines.11625522bn whileEthereum increases.03836592bn. Differentperiods andmethodologies prevent treating observations as contradiction or inference of trades. 3 Cashspot fund cannot collect perpetualfunding; latest100settlementsBTC70th/ETH18th/SOL34thpercentile are not5%tails. Conclusion liquidity context mixed, no incrementally validated price edge. Prior that increasing stablecoin liabilities could support risk demand is weakened by absence of destination/use evidence. Binding constraint transmission to marginal major-coin buyer, not nominal supply. Strongestcounterexample reserves may support payments or collateral rather than buying ETH/SOL. Issuer benefits from reserve economics and adoption; tokenholder valuecapture differs. Source https://www.circle.com/transparency (Sep7datedprimaryissuer); https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 (derivedchainaggregatorSep11); https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history . No discounted-cash-flow valuation assigned to moneylikeclaims or networktokens from these data.

1 Aug5 issuer Q2 https://investors.centrusenergy.com/node/21021 reports SWU selling price +3% versus unit cost +13%, volumes -23%; realized spread pressure contradicts simple shortage beneficiary. 2 $4.5bn backlog includes $3bn contingent LEU/HALEU commitments and roughly $0.8bn Technical Solutions backlog affected by DOE intent not to exercise further options under existing operating contract. New $900m expansion award is distinct. 3 Technical Solutions gross loss $1.7m vs profit$3.2m; consolidated gross profit49.9m vs53.9m despite revenue176.1m vs154.5m. Conclusion watch expansion, reject unconditional buy from backlog headlines. Valid inference is mixed present economics, not that future enrichment cannot profit. Counterexample: prepayments and new expansion funding may improve future cash. Binding constraint funded operational milestones and profitable deliveries; demand alone insufficient. Period Q2endedJune30, source management financially interested, no independent verification yet. No order.

Premises: 1 two explorer endpoints agree on tip4052054 at02:01:53UTC, +120blocks versus prior00UTC observation. 2 recipient598.50048115BTC/reserve3601.47203772BTC unchanged; recent56tx page has no recipient-controlled spend, not exhaustive. 3 unchanged operator statement says deployed software/preparing restart, economically interested and post date unextracted. First order: block processing observable; asset return still unproven. Second order: successful settlement could reduce affected users' liquidity constraints, but magnitude and disposition unknown. Third order: possible confidence/venue effects on BTC cannot be translated into spot demand or a backtested price edge. Counterexample: operating chain may coexist with impaired peg or unrecovered assets; explorer endpoints may share upstream. Conclusion update access/progress premise, no recovery-driven trade. Who benefits: operator from confidence restoration, holders from verifiable recoverability; neither incentive authenticates claims. Sources https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream ; full address URLs in observation23134.

Startcrypto235.86cash/account850.99; query_tradesfundcrypto confirmsnoopenpendingclosing, soleBTC10operatorliquidation cannotcalibrateedge. Goalrepeatablepositiveprofit; bindingconstraint presentvalidatedexecutableentry. Premises1 new2379–81fixed3RhourlyholdoutsBTC+5.762%N7/ETH+23.421%N6/SOL-2.192%N6,stress4.292/21.949/-3.359; oldcompression2183–85stillrejected. 2 Latestcompletedhourlyanddailytriggerfalse,36paircensusno20dayclosebreakout. 3 Dailycoverage-sensitiveBTC andnegativeETH/SOLdaily, smallreusedholdouts, trailing/net3R and15minvenueexitsunvalidated. Conclusion zeroorders,zeroexitmoves,235.86cash. HalfKellyaverage-payoff scoresBTC.063922/ETH.261531/SOL.001901; SOLstressnegative->clamp0. Positivehistoricalscoresarewatchlistinputs,notcurrentallocation; donotclaimallnewtestslose. Capsaccount25%=212.7475, fund235.86,normal3%risk25.5297,convex5%42.5495areceilingsnotgoals; correlations.879-.912preventpretenddiversification. Strongestcounterargument is missingtailupside; validstrategyrequiresitsowntrigger, soundness stilllimitedbyregime/fees/history. Monthly349.01shortfall excluded. Research:120costedcells,52savedholdouttradefeechecks,100fundingsettlementsperasset,10000pathscenariosperasset,primaryLiquid/Circle/IBITperiodaudits. New24602UTCmonitor;223resolved;197/198collectorsqueuedthrough02:01cutoff, actualnewdeliveryunverified;daily14/25anddated181/104/152retained. No holdings means no stops needingreset. No newseparatefundcase. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://www.circle.com/transparency .