Stats

Start49.14fundcash/850.99account, noholdingsorqueuedorders; everyholdingreviewvacuous. Goalprofitablepre-eventrunups; bindingconstraintpositiveexecutablepayoffineligiblefuturewindow. Premises:1 CAGSep30datedoriginalverified butT5train-4.240584%N17/heldout-3.893451%N6,stress-5.039838%,zero3Rtargets,halfKelly0. AlternativeT3stresstraining-2.911568% andT10heldout-5.142680%; cannotselectbestholdout.2 TLXnoverifieddecision,pastgoalnotfuturewindow;SRRKalreadyapprovedperpriorissuer,noSep30runup.3 MUstrongtrendbutgenericCLIreturnnotvalidatedeventedgeandwhole-share975.26>49.14;RFILMondayBMOprior-sessionpassed,LUXEfullreleasegap.4 OracleexhaustedATM andCopartFY28Q&Aarebusinessfactswithoutnewfixedcatalyst. Conclusionnoorder,approvednotional0,remaincashforstatededgefailure. Validity:failedentry/payoffgatesrejectreviewedset; soundnesslimitedtosmallretrospectivecohorts,feedadjustments,dailyproxy/fullpreannouncementgaps, boundedoverseas/FDAcoverage. Countercasefat-tailreboundpossible;onepossiblewinnotpositiveexpectancy. No financialshortfall-drivenrisk. Workrecorded:US7163screen/138leads,12foreignsample/70crypto pairs,23historicalCAGevents,69event/windowobservations,12vectorbtbacktests,2CLIdiagnostics,fundamental/statistical/technical/simulation/consequenceanalyses,lessons809–811. Resolvedtwo ownmonitors,added305/306,scheduledtested233preserving126whilekeepingfivejobs;newserverexecutionrequiresactualEND. Sources https://api.nasdaq.com/api/screener/stocks?tableonly=true&limit=10000&download=true ; https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ ; Oracle/CPRToriginalsin2791. No separatelyvalidatedoutside-mandateoperationforFUNDline. Finishing~20minuteswithin42planned/45hard, finalphaseusedforrecords/lessons/report.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CAG,MU --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days1095 --stop-pct5 --target-pct15. {"symbol":"MU","bars":752,"returnPct":572.7709652585002,"buyAndHoldPct":1276.3161609033168,"maxDrawdownPct":43.83288048655623,"winRate":44.871794871794876,"avgTradePct":2.76594339100079,"sample":78}. This built-in default-feed diagnostic has no reserved holdout and no independently verified fees/slippage; not a trading approval. Separate CAG vectorbt event study records fixed training/holdout and both cost regimes, and rejects entry. MU trend profit does not prove an earnings-run-up edge, and one whole share exceeds49.14 fund capacity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Do not extrapolate these huge MU full-window returns into a small-fund event forecast.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CAG,MU --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days1095 --stop-pct5 --target-pct15. {"symbol":"CAG","bars":752,"returnPct":6.219738320198354,"buyAndHoldPct":-48.870995974094164,"maxDrawdownPct":24.038346227107002,"winRate":42.857142857142854,"avgTradePct":0.2657705695292911,"sample":35}. This built-in default-feed diagnostic has no reserved holdout and no independently verified fees/slippage; not a trading approval. Separate CAG vectorbt event study records fixed training/holdout and both cost regimes, and rejects entry. MU trend profit does not prove an earnings-run-up edge, and one whole share exceeds49.14 fund capacity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Do not extrapolate these huge MU full-window returns into a small-fund event forecast.

Premises: frozenCAGT5training17hasp=.5294118,W=.01325795,L=.01995905. Two-outcomehalfKelly max(0,.5*(p/L-(1-p)/W))=0; thisisnotvenuepositioncap. FiftythousandNumPybootstrap paths(seed91202,followingrecordedearlierbootstrapdraws) resample20trainingeventreturns, hypotheticallyrebalancequarter-fund12.285/850.99=1.4436127%accountpertrade. 71.9%endbelowstart; terminalaccountp05=848.742887,median850.389251,p95=852.097942 vs850.99. Hypothetical20quarterlyevents means~5years,not20daysandnotamonthendforecast. Costs1bpfee+5bpslip/side includedintradereturns; accountprofitsoutsidefund, subscriptioncosts,cashinterestandfutureallocationchangesnotmodeled. IIDbootstrap ignoresregimechange/unseengaps/correlation; smallapparentlossesarenotcashguarantee. Independentgapstress:50%lossoffull49.14fund=24.57=2.887225%account,totalfundloss5.77445%;noassignedgapprobability. CAGheldoutmean-.6443%andzero3Rtargethitsfailshapeofpayoff; smallprobewouldshrinkexpectedloss,notcreateedge. Noorder, approvednotional0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG&feed=sip&adjustment=all and23issuerURLsrecorded; localresearch/event_test.py andstat_sim.json; realfundrecordnotusedasGaussianstockdistribution.

CAG23actualissuer earnings dates frozen from2021–Jul2026. PrimaryT5/ATR1/3 model has training17 p(win)=52.941%,averagewin1.325795%,averageloss1.995905%; heldout6wins4butaveragewin.559145%,loss3.051251%,mean-.644320%,bootstrap95%meanCI[-2.094866,.587018]%. Sixobservationsaretoo fewforreliabletailodds. Training simpleindicatorOLS(return~intercept+mom20+SMA20distance): correlationmom/SMA=.781325,mom/return=.069265,R²=.063501,N17. Coefficientsintercept-.00418587,mom-.07371741,SMAdistance.26760662,returnsasfractions; descriptive fit, no robust significance ortradefilterclaimed. Relatedsignalsarenotindependentvotes;17points/3parametersveryunstable. Fundactualquery_trades: MIRM-.439321%,IONS-2.842420%,RARE-45.860062%;N3win0%,mean-16.380601%,nowinningtradeaverageavailable. Twooperatorliquidationscensorintendedhorizon; cannotlabelthreepurestrategyfailuresorusezeroastruewinprobability. Wilson95%upperwinbound56.1506%. RAREfill13.98976vsstop24=41.7093%belowstop,actual6.44035Rprice loss relative1.84initialrisk; notarrivalpriceslippage. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; primaryissuerlinksrecordedeachevent. Prior: calendaraloneunlikelyenough; evidencewouldchangeallocationifnewindependentcostedcohortmeanpositivewithdefensiblewin/lossanddatedentry. Financialshortfallnotanevidenceupdate.

Coverage:12foreignlistingYahoo1yhistoriesacrossUK/Japan/Canada/France/Sweden/Australia/HK/Germany; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/<symbol>?range=1y&interval=1d . 3positive20dayreturns(EGTX+11.3416%,SAP+1.0571%,Toyota+.3642%);4aboveSMA50including4431.T. Notallforeignlistings. EGTXpositivebutpriorSep28PDUFArunuphasnoindependentodds/venueFXvalidation;KTG/NEXTweaktrendsnotautomaticshorts. Kingfisher https://www.kingfisher.com/investors/financial-calendar Sep22provisionaldateonly, priceheader37.10GBpnotYahoo288.4;do notinferquote/returnfromheader. ABVX https://abivax.gcs-web.com/financial-information/financial-calendar Sep21financialsnotnewtoplinepromise. Crypto https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-movers?top=50 returned68moverpairs,70withsnapshot-onlystablecoins,34baseassets,19USDsnapshots. LeadingXTZ+2.21%butspread56.97bp; BTC2.77bp/ETH2.14bp/SOL9.81bp quotedspreadsarenotfees,partialdayreturnsnotdailyedge. PAXGspread118.14bp. No datedearnings/FDAedgefromranking. ArcSep16primarylaunch https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results andSepoliaOct6 https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496 arestructuralwatch,notvalidatedBTC/ETHpayoff; mainnetexactdateunconfirmed. TLXstillunknownafternews+SECCLI,notpendingclaim. RFILAug31issuerorigin https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/rf-industries-report-third-quarter-results-september-14-2026-08-31 Sep14BMO08:30ET;defaultprior-sessionexitpassed. MUAug26issuerSep30call16:30EDT,liquidtrendbutwhole975.26>49.14andnoeventtest. LUXEsearch-indexIRSep16/Sept14conference;direct403/dynamic-shell,fullreleaseandfinancialbridgeunread,thereforetentativewatchnottrade. Cashchosenbecauseprice/range/datealonehavenoqualifiedpayoff,notbecausemarketclosed. No outside-mandatevalidatededgefornewFUND.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-10 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":10,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":-6.274166764358142,"drawdown":9.472727059565145,"win rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-1.0251635762357623,"mean_ci_low_pct":-3.2447057096597254,"mean_ci_high_pct":1.6885630962411209,"targets":0,"stops":4,"avg_win_pct":3.144877922332512,"avg_loss_pct":3.1101843255198993,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":2.914335439641036e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-10 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":10,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"train2021-24","return":1.3254767009880561,"drawdown":10.040864468172517,"win rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":17,"mean_pct":0.11178102327023053,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.0603849051204484,"mean_ci_high_pct":1.4267981024097158,"targets":1,"stops":7,"avg_win_pct":2.697547961079296,"avg_loss_pct":1.698255833196115,"half_kelly_fraction":1.2200167557108248,"manual_vbt_error":2.5847379792054426e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-10 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":10,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":-5.142680198176695,"drawdown":8.4713374004454,"win rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-0.8270156068078202,"mean_ci_low_pct":-3.0510012713623986,"mean_ci_high_pct":1.8921439559789848,"targets":0,"stops":4,"avg_win_pct":3.351374329456591,"avg_loss_pct":2.916210574940026,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":2.0816681711721685e-17}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-10 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":10,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"train2021-24","return":4.829782325466694,"drawdown":8.954850614300957,"win rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":17,"mean_pct":0.31220515977139096,"mean_ci_low_pct":-0.865162784602938,"mean_ci_high_pct":1.642135804685651,"targets":1,"stops":7,"avg_win_pct":2.903148812053085,"avg_loss_pct":1.5014553968257949,"half_kelly_fraction":3.5811981173295777,"manual_vbt_error":8.604228440844963e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-3 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":3,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":2.3175333743994817,"drawdown":5.651421331550798,"win rate":50,"sample":6,"mean_pct":0.4153302437029975,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.522072834790511,"mean_ci_high_pct":2.6277458257612407,"targets":0,"stops":1,"avg_win_pct":2.6277458257612407,"avg_loss_pct":1.7970853383552459,"half_kelly_fraction":4.397557283670556,"manual_vbt_error":6.522560269672795e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-3 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":3,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"train2021-24","return":-2.9115678861700873,"drawdown":5.86199797933229,"win rate":47.05882352941176,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-0.16202397194880708,"mean_ci_low_pct":-0.8921946909346221,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.555214792293831,"targets":0,"stops":4,"avg_win_pct":1.176792917969821,"avg_loss_pct":1.3520834296542543,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":1.2836953722228372e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-3 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":3,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":3.552741539547351,"drawdown":5.273270810372555,"win rate":50,"sample":6,"mean_pct":0.616362086807402,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.3015514157158083,"mean_ci_high_pct":2.833206932615462,"targets":0,"stops":1,"avg_win_pct":2.833206932615462,"avg_loss_pct":1.600482759000658,"half_kelly_fraction":6.796363913887676,"manual_vbt_error":2.914335439641036e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-3 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":3,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"train2021-24","return":0.44620105611007604,"drawdown":4.308830456010848,"win rate":52.94117647058824,"sample":17,"mean_pct":0.037852005992233165,"mean_ci_low_pct":-0.6783187155992108,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.7715948216426869,"targets":0,"stops":4,"avg_win_pct":1.2344806313739611,"avg_loss_pct":1.308355197562211,"half_kelly_fraction":1.171787767762222,"manual_vbt_error":5.776629175002768e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":-5.039838491443461,"drawdown":7.333740724253024,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-0.842833376365291,"mean_ci_low_pct":-2.279755813597423,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.3860451864665141,"targets":0,"stops":2,"avg_win_pct":0.3582273127739455,"avg_loss_pct":3.2449547546437643,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":2.1510571102112408e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"train2021-24","return":-7.441681010285829,"drawdown":9.492890812502475,"win rate":47.05882352941176,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-0.4366840342314251,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.2877487245436179,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.4509469874292036,"targets":0,"stops":8,"avg_win_pct":1.2764946589204962,"avg_loss_pct":1.9595095392553552,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":1.2351231148954867e-15}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":-3.893450741555898,"drawdown":6.308690142544837,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-0.64432038123813,"mean_ci_low_pct":-2.0948655186051286,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.5870184007836861,"targets":0,"stops":2,"avg_win_pct":0.5591448356104811,"avg_loss_pct":3.0512508149353526,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":7.216449660063518e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"train2021-24","return":-4.240584421467301,"drawdown":7.770626275636083,"win rate":52.94117647058824,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-0.23735792669776246,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.1056331964765072,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.6752835244650862,"targets":0,"stops":8,"avg_win_pct":1.325795019131474,"avg_loss_pct":1.9959049907556536,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":4.85722573273506e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG,MU,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; explicit SIP returned200with1682bars each/nextpagetokennull, IEXalso200with1537/1540bars; todayfeedaccesssupersedesprior403withoutassumingpermanententitlement. Sep11CAG14.60 belowSMA20/50/20015.796/15.0274/15.38265;20dayreturn-5.133%,ATR20 .41226,annualRV20 27.348%. Illustrativestop14.18774,target15.83678=1ATRrisk/3ATRreward,gross+8.4711%target versusfull2020–26rolling5daygain90thpercentile3.80166%; targetmuchmoreambitiousthanusualfive-sessiongain. Notlivelevels:noentryandfutureATRmustbefrozenatentry. MU975.26 aboveall3SMAs962.80675/928.6069/621.932575,ATR46.328885,RV54.011%,20day+2.677%;3ATRtarget+14.2515%versus5dayq90+10.4587%,onewhole-shareunaffordableat49.14fundcap. Fractional possible butdoesnotestablisheventedgeorafterhoursprotection. SPY764.29<SMA20766.879,>SMA50758.6164,20day-1.747%,ATR5.45286; modestmarketweaknessdifferentfromCAGstructuraldecline. Indicatorsarecorrelateddiagnostics, notmultipleindependentconfirmations. No trade; 15minute/+2Rmanagementnotvalidatedbydailybars.

Conagra:1 dividendcut retainscash andcapex/brandspendingrises;2 retailers/suppliersmayreceiveinvestmentorpriceconcessions beforeequitybenefits;3 onlypaidvolumeandmarginrecovery cantranslatecashretentionintohigherreturns. Counter: spendfailsandnewCEOresetunveilsfurtherweakness. Oracle:1 customerprepay/equityfinancesdatacenters;2 equipment/power/landprovidersgetpaidbeforecustomerutilizationmatures;3 fixedleasecommitmentsanddilutionmakeequitypayoffdependonfutureprofitableuse. Counter: prepaidcontractedcapacity+timingflexibilitysharetherisk. Copart:1 acquireACVcashfunded;2 integratebuyers/logisticsacrossseparatebrandsplusnewtech/trainingcost;3 higherauctionliquiditycouldliftconsignorrecoveriesandfeesbutmustoutpaceinsurancevolumeweaknessandcostpercar. CEObenefitsfromgrowthstory; noquantifiedsynergycashorclosingdateyet. Arc:1 Sep16plannedlaunch;2 existingUSDCmaymigratewithnonewnetliquidity;3 increasedtransactionsneednotincreaseETH/SOLtokenvalueorCirclecashproportionately,Q2volume+151%versusrevenue+7%. These arecausalhypotheses, notestimatedstockreturnprobabilities. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dex992.htm ; https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results . No order andno independentout-of-mandateedgeforFUNDproposal.

Recovered Oraclefull139225characterplainfiling andselectedlaterMD&A/RiskFactors https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm . Premise1: original laterMD&A explicitlyfullyutilized20bnATM/approx141mnewshares;19.9bnnet proceedsarepastfunding, not remainingcapacity. Cash/securities37.077bn andmanagement12monthliquidityassertion+discretionarycapexflexibility arecounterarguments againstimminentfundingfailure. Premise2: OCF23.103bn includes11.363bnfinancingprepayments,capex28.499bn,FCF-5.396bn; simpleexprepayFCF-16.759bn diagnostic notGAAP. Prior288bnfutureleasesnotPVdebt. No newearningsdate fromfinancingfacts. Copart actualSep10Q&A inSep11exhibit https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dex992.htm clarifies firstfull-yearaccretionFY28, currentyearbreakeven; cash-funded nofinancingcondition,customaryregulatoryreview,end2026expectedclosurenotfixeddate. CEO>2bnpostdeal cash isforecast. Distinctbrands retained,butbuyers/logistics integrated;capex/training/technologyinvestment needed. Q4USinsuranceunits-7.5%,cost/car+12.7%,opincome-10.6%contradictpureliquiditybullstory. CFO17m longhaulcostincrease maysupportnewfees,counter toallcostswaste. Tenderstillnotcommenced per https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dsctoc.htm . Conclusion watcheconomics, no runuporder ormergerdateguess. Q&A coveragegapclosed; annualORCL10Kriskreviewandfuturedealtermsremainseparatework.

Primary July15 original https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 and Aug31 https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962. Premises: (1) FY26 FCF979m versus dividends670m leaves309m before other cash uses, net debt7.1bn/leverage3.83x. FY27 capex550m versus423m means+127m/+30.0%, while organic salesguided-3to-1%,margin10to10.5%,EPS1.40to1.50. (2) Dividend cutto0.70annual from1.40 conserves approximately335m/year at479mshares, assumptionconstant shares notissuerforecast. (3) At14.60Sep11SIP, forwardadjustedEPSmultiple9.73–10.43x and annualdividendyield4.79%; valuationmultiples are proxies notintrinsicvalue. (4) Q4reported3.6%growth includes7.7pp53rdweek, whileorganicflat combines+1.6price/mix/-1.6volume, not organicgrowth. Conclusion: affordable earningsrunupcandidate, not automaticallycheap; fundamental recovery needsvolume andcashprogress onSep30. Countercase: lowexpectations,newCEO,dividendretention andleadingbrands could permitasymmetricrebound. Bindingconstraint isnetpre-eventedge, notbalance-sheetimminentfailureor49.14affordability. Hardlimit: netleverageforecast4x andcapexrising reduce cash flexibility. Facts above fromissuer; runupprobabilityunknownuntiltest; noorder.

Fetched official Nasdaq Trader directories https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt excluding TestIssue Y:5597+7584=13181 unique securities, including ETFs/preferreds/warrants, not13181 companies. Download-all https://api.nasdaq.com/api/screener/stocks?tableonly=true&limit=10000&download=true returned7163 rows,6764 exact symbol matches to directories;399 unmatched require symbol/security mapping, not assumed delisted. Calendar https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/earnings?date=2026-09-14 and each of15trading days throughOct2 returned138 unique leads;136joined and111priced<=49.14. Recorded each joined row with price,volume,lastprice*volume liquidity proxy,and date; asOf=null means no executable timestamp. Calendar estimates disagree with original TBN Sep25 versus calendarSep24; also EBF calendars disagreeSep21/28. Never enter from estimate. Rank dollar-volume and affordability for verification, not returns prediction: MU dominant but whole share975.26>49.14; CAG14.60 and247.57m turnoverproxy -> new primary/date and fixed event test; RFILSep14BMO confirmed, prior-session windowpassed; LUXESep16 gives only short futurewindow and preconferenceSep14. TLX originalnewspage stillnoverifieddecision. FDA calendar HTML was a table shell so no claimcompleteFDAcensus. This is broad all-download screening with explicit mapping, coverage and survivorship gaps, not exhaustive primary verification ofeverylisting. No order from screen.

Start: $49.14 fund cash, $850.99 equity, zero holdings/pending. Goal: profitable dated run-ups exited before first event news. Binding constraint: independently justified executable payoff in an eligible future window, not$349.01 recovery need. Premises: (1) SRRK announced approval19days before priorgoal; cannot buy a futureSep30run-up afteractualnews (issuer25168/PI25227). TLXSep11outcome notverified; unknownstatus cannotdefineentry. (2) MondayHAIN/HITI/PLAY defaultpre-eventexitSep11 haspassed andpasttests do notvalidatea newlast-dayentry. (3) SCHLdateSep24confirmed, butT5/3Rtest2768 training-2.6403%N16, knownholdout+2.1505%N6, stress+.3282%,95%meanCIcrosses0and0targethits; traininghalfKelly0. (4) HOFTprofitscontainone-offrefunds; ORCLnewfilingaddsfinancing/leasecommitments; neitherpostresultcontextisnewrun-upedge. Conclusion: approvednotional0, noorders/stops/targetsset, preservecash. Validity: failedtiming/payoffgates implyrejectionofreviewedset. Soundnesslimitedbyselectedsmallcohorts, knownratherthannewholdout, IEXpartialfeed,unverified15minmanagement/earlynews, andboundedglobalcalendar. Strongestcountercase: SRRKapprovalandSCHLoversoldmeanreversioncanproducebigwins; pricepossibilitydoesnotcalibrateoddsorrestoretestedwindow. Newindependentpositiveeventevidencewouldchangeallocation; financialpressurewillnot. Currentfundtotal-lossstress5.77445%ofaccount,50%gap2.88723%, noassignedgapodds. Sources https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-announces-fda-approval-isembyldtm-apitegromab-mstn ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ ; https://investor.scholastic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholastic-corporation-announces-date-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex&adjustment=all ; HOFT2741andOracle2778originals. Monitors288/293/295–298armed; fivecollectorspreserved,00:15newexecutionsnotyetverifiedat00:17(snapshotstillold), actualnextoutputmustbeaudited. Lessons800–802 recorded. No outside-mandateprovenstrategyjustifiesFUNDline.

Existing5 activejobs126/132/172/223/224 allreturnedexit0andfinalEND inactualvenueoutput; observationsrecordexactlast/nexttimestamps andremainingruns. 223's23:30receiptcaughtSRRK18:25EDTapproval, thenfullissuerrelease/labelretrievedinthisrun. Newjobnotneeded:126/224at00:15,172at01:15,223at01:30providecoveragebefore02manager;132at02:15followsnextmanager. StaticoldSep30SRRKreminders incollectoroutputare supersededbyverifiedSep11approval25168/monitor288, notanewfuturePDUFA. Resolvedownmonitors24/13/279/193/280/278 withoutcomesandnamedgaps. Added288SRRKlaunch,293TLX02UTC,295PLAYoutcome,296SCHLmeeting/paperentry,297NKEprior-session,plusnewORCL02UTCcoveragefollowup. Otherfundmonitorsuntouched. Rule: inspectfreshoriginalsonnewheadline; missing/statuserror -> unknown/cash, neverinfernonewnews. No scriptsplaceorders andno queuedlimitorders. Sources runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst andprimaryURLswithinmonitors/analyses2741,2768,2778. Publicrecordsupersedesoldstaticreminders; no economicclaimfromhash alone.