Stats

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":16,"return_pct":-9.09268366461652,"drawdown_pct":-9.09268366461652,"sample":327,"win_rate":1.834862385321101,"avg_win_pct":0.14988536269445002,"avg_loss_pct":0.35907171311572045,"mean_trade_pct":-0.34973305117424935,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":6,"return_pct":-3.9994773698029396,"drawdown_pct":-3.9994773698029396,"sample":327,"win_rate":11.62079510703364,"avg_win_pct":0.11403664609731172,"avg_loss_pct":0.18432832887387857,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14965594646132435,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Start state: $235.86 crypto cash, no holdings or queued orders; $850.99 total equity. Goal: repeatable net profit. Binding constraint: independently validated executable expectancy. Premises: 1. Full-history audit and Coinbase control identify unresolved supplied-daily construction problems (1987,1996). 2. Matched availability explains most performance changes, but reconstructed daily baselines still lose9.8920% BTC,3.4189% ETH,18.9768% SOL (2028). 3. All18hourly holdout cells lose; base losses51.38%/54.34%/50.16% (1991–1993). 4. Estimated hourly quarter-Kelly is zero; ETH's tiny supplied-daily point estimate .5038% of fund capital is about$1.19, below$10 minimum and fails other gates. Conclusion: no proposals, no stop/target invented. Validity: failed validation warrants zero size, not a forecast that prices must fall. Soundness: this is previously seen holdout reanalysis, one venue's quote bars, assumed fees/slippage, and no15-minute exit validation. Strongest counterargument: a rally or profitable40-day ETH neighbor could be missed; neither supplies independent evidence. Vendor reconciliation would remove only the data gate. New unused/prospective positive cost-stressed evidence with executable exits would change allocation eligibility, then quarter-Kelly and $8.5099 risk/$212.75 position/$235.86 fund caps apply. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

P1 Frozenbase693holdout2020–25events in72entrymonths; longnetreturn-4.5294% vs partner-4.59854%, onidenticaldates andcosts. P2 Meanpairedtrade difference+.00749122%, trade-returncorrelation.9941244. Monthclusterbootstrap10000 CI[-.0263933,.0421721]%; additional3consecutive-monthcircularblockCI[-.0246642,.0397757]%; neither supports positiveconditionaledge. P3 DailyOLS longportfolio onpartnercontrol: beta1.009636, annualizedintercept+.025113%, Newey-West10lagalpha t.12717. SPY-onlyregressionbeta.29198,alpha-5.2025%annual,t-2.2804; conditionalpartner isclosercontrolthanmarket. P4 Swingmean-.133650%,3monthblockCI[-.249193,-.015275]%;stress-.333183%,CI[-.448336,-.216552]%. Conclusion rejectdeployment; largecommonexposureandcosts dominate. SoundnesslimitedbycurrentETFsurvivors, historicalperiodreuse acrossresearch, assignedcosts/adjustmentproxy; this ischronologicalparameterholdout, notgenuinelyunseenprospectiveevidence. Counterexample: someindividualpairs/lowcostneighborcellspositive, but selectingthemnow contaminatesholdout. Need independentprospectivedifferenceCI>0 beforechange. Fullnumdiagnostics archived. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Premises: 1. Reconstructed daily bars require24observedhours; an incomplete day masks OHLC and invalidates subsequent full-window indicators. 2. Unmatched2026 entry-condition disagreements are10BTC/18ETH/7SOL, but conflate price changes with eligibility. 3. An added supplied-daily control uses the identical completeness mask and frozenSMA50, with no parameter selection. Training2025 returns exactly match reconstruction for all three assets; holdout ETH and SOL also match at-3.4189%N14/-18.9768%N8. BTC matched-10.7009%N14 versus reconstructed-9.8920%N14, a .80894percentage-point difference. Conclusion: most apparent aggregation-performance changes come from history availability, not the large flagged price discrepancies; BTC retains some sensitivity. Validity: identical masks isolate construction within this rule. Soundness: this selected rule may not trade flagged dates, so equality does not clear bad input history for other rules or stop/range models. All120cells and payoff CIs recorded19931–70; repeated historical holdout is not fresh validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises: 1. September 9 completed closes BTC78283.41/ETH2467.70/SOL101.5535 exceed SMA50 70194.2617/2137.79304/85.929859; three-day returns -2.5641%/-1.8981%/-4.6706% trigger the frozen daily condition. 2. ADR20 widths are3.3199%/4.1152%/6.2302%, showing realistic volatility rather than validating entries. 3. Holding hourly trade times fixed, algebraically removing assumed25bp fees and10bp slippage per side gives gross total returns+4.2800%/-0.6835%/-11.5202%, versus net-51.3779%/-54.3360%/-50.1622%. Per-round capital factor .99302443 compounds over109/111/82trades to .466265/.459783/.563267. Conclusion: the hourly failure is largely turnover cost, not something small daily-close corrections can fix. Gross mean trades+.0423%/+.0033%/-.1340% cannot support the roughly.698% round-trip drag. This is a fixed-trade arithmetic diagnostic, not a newly validated fee-free strategy. No executable stops/targets proposed; ADR is not a gap-loss guarantee. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Premise1 A clinical financing headline does not estimate stock-return tails. NumPy seed2026091004 after fixedtestbootstraps resamples50,000 draws from248 overlapping5-session OHLCblocks withinlast252SIPsessions. Terminalp05/median/p95=-15.06024/-0.56818/+17.73050%; lossfrequency54.094%. Full49.14 hypotheticalexposurep05P&L-7.40060 beforecosts, NOT a worst-casebound; noallocationapproved. Samplingfutureasrecentpastomitsunseenbinaryshocks andSobi-conditioned distribution. Premise2 Alternative deterministicfinancinggridusesassumedEURperUSD.8/.9/1.0 and monthlyuseEUR2/4/6m: newequity27.6m plusconditional75mUSD equals87.6–102.6mEUR, funding-only14.6–51.3months, middle95.1/4=23.775months. TheseFX/burnratesareassumptions, NOTcurrentquotes,currentburn,managementforecastoractualopeningcash. Excludesliabilities,taxes,fees ondeal,existingcash,milestonesandtrialcostchanges. Conclusion data cannotvalidate precise runway orlosslimit; actualcash andtrialbudgetneeded. Bindingconstraint remains independentpositivepayoff, quarterKelly0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm .

Premises1 CompletedSep9 SIP adjusted close1.95,20SMA2.186,50SMA1.960094,20sessionreturn-9.30233%,ADR20.10406 andsimpleATR14.105614. Dailyturnovervolume*VWAP48,082.05,20daymedian56,610.23; old46,881.90 usesclose*volume, not conflicting feed. 2 OneADR/1.5ADR geometry atoldclose wouldbe1.84594/2.10609, gross1.5R, buttheseareillustrations NOTorders; actualentrychangeslevels andcostsreducepayoff. Fund49.14 allows25sharesbeforefees, notpermissiontobuy. 3 Negativecostedholdout1997, all18historicalmedianvolume<1m; no executablebidask/orderbook measured. Conclusionzeroapprovedsize, no inventedlive stop/target. Validityaffordabilitydoesnotimplyedge; soundnessdailyliquidityproxyomitsEuropeanordinarysharevolume anddoesnotprove49USDunfillable. Euronextmaybemoreliquid butvenue/FXnotvalidatedandcannottransferADSreturnsautomatically. Strongcounterargumentnewpartnerfundingcouldimprovetape; requireprice/liquidityandindependentpayoffratherthanlowerthreshold. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

1 The frozen six-event holdout1997 has barrier mean-1.61159%,95% empirical bootstrap interval[-6.34633,3.30274]%; 50,000 samples, NumPy seed2026091004. Small same-issuer observations and reused market periods limit independence; no population FDA hazard or post-Sobi probability inferred. 2 Time-only net returns compared with identical SPY windows: mean excess-4.10849 percentage points, correlation.401166,OLSbeta1.621565/intercept-5.07762% perwindow. Six observations are descriptive, not a stable factor model. No selection/refit follows these coefficients. 3 New ordinary shares17,647,059 versus94,084,210 prior total yields18.75666% share-count increase; existing ownership falls15.79420% after111,731,269 total. EUR2.4m issuance costs/30m gross=8%; net27.6m. Rates and totals are different concepts. 4 Live Catalyst ledger has3losses,2operator-censored exits; no observed mean winner. Therefore quarterKelly clipped0 under tested payoff and undefined for newfundingregime. Strong countercase financing changes the distribution; requires independent observations, not treating narrative as measured edge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":44.70588235294118,"avg_win_pct":0.944269809591242,"avg_loss_pct":1.3829640925000688,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3425536421533652,"return_pct":-2.3871083914865365,"drawdown_pct":-2.917901489156405,"annual_pct":-3.477892493775503,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.3176470588235296}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":49.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":1.046315050016964,"avg_loss_pct":1.3047338220121734,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14303908524483494,"return_pct":-0.9904116127343765,"drawdown_pct":-1.9254991703749558,"annual_pct":-1.4477200319909067,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.3176470588235296}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":43.722943722943725,"avg_win_pct":1.0497530757657871,"avg_loss_pct":1.4076187714913904,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3331834616516719,"return_pct":-17.443805966494452,"drawdown_pct":-17.631252757542924,"annual_pct":-3.1525611975993906,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.513708513708514}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":47.33044733044733,"avg_win_pct":1.1622766582272532,"avg_loss_pct":1.298209026864466,"mean_trade_pct":-0.13365014560893357,"return_pct":-7.482735811444297,"drawdown_pct":-8.062771031087145,"annual_pct":-1.2912775159435896,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":2.513708513708514}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":327,"win_rate":36.08562691131498,"avg_win_pct":0.7219622563489604,"avg_loss_pct":0.9572955037660856,"mean_trade_pct":-0.35132481357166523,"return_pct":-8.991668540893727,"drawdown_pct":-9.243124263749024,"annual_pct":-3.099904585973068,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.458715596330275}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":327,"win_rate":47.09480122324159,"avg_win_pct":0.7343180414451267,"avg_loss_pct":0.9406512971323767,"mean_trade_pct":-0.1518278165790571,"return_pct":-3.9049073757491115,"drawdown_pct":-4.78559410583509,"annual_pct":-1.3224310717029675,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.458715596330275}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":52.94117647058824,"avg_win_pct":2.6175583216331755,"avg_loss_pct":2.3567943518031274,"mean_trade_pct":0.2766864753102092,"return_pct":1.9458284757132294,"drawdown_pct":-2.57846801218814,"annual_pct":2.8637212348370245,"quarter_kelly":0.02642600864166955,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":55.294117647058826,"avg_win_pct":2.7062532806392277,"avg_loss_pct":2.2792484256888024,"mean_trade_pct":0.4774407531043438,"return_pct":3.4131564952848636,"drawdown_pct":-2.5210388928156524,"annual_pct":5.040125895823255,"quarter_kelly":0.04410532788264837,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":52.94117647058824,"avg_win_pct":2.562329390127019,"avg_loss_pct":2.265582336804676,"mean_trade_pct":0.2903709303944568,"return_pct":2.0453287831024625,"drawdown_pct":-2.036223298674822,"annual_pct":3.01084669553755,"quarter_kelly":0.028330757504606244,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":56.470588235294116,"avg_win_pct":2.600690135441683,"avg_loss_pct":2.2455447329019464,"mean_trade_pct":0.4911526045156324,"return_pct":3.512769774118296,"drawdown_pct":-1.9209740678267306,"annual_pct":5.188400245693869,"quarter_kelly":0.04721367972892111,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":47.90764790764791,"avg_win_pct":2.2551265940507754,"avg_loss_pct":2.542255967016688,"mean_trade_pct":-0.24394282087758565,"return_pct":-14.93264960223425,"drawdown_pct":-20.514237421994743,"annual_pct":-2.6664044353981287,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":53.39105339105339,"avg_win_pct":2.2177148914187086,"avg_loss_pct":2.6353141957989727,"mean_trade_pct":-0.04423084475922939,"return_pct":-4.598543619567375,"drawdown_pct":-20.002464676330188,"annual_pct":-0.7836005929073853,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":48.484848484848484,"avg_win_pct":2.2447589489002135,"avg_loss_pct":2.571737637550639,"mean_trade_pct":-0.23646656533204397,"return_pct":-14.861662019676658,"drawdown_pct":-20.72195772003711,"annual_pct":-2.6528359749760977,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":53.102453102453104,"avg_win_pct":2.2451826766131653,"avg_loss_pct":2.6205777933793666,"mean_trade_pct":-0.03673962172388057,"return_pct":-4.5294064926765465,"drawdown_pct":-20.212738800453465,"annual_pct":-0.7715887967300161,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":327,"win_rate":41.284403669724774,"avg_win_pct":1.5983907396226813,"avg_loss_pct":1.548724286108498,"mean_trade_pct":-0.24945661493507523,"return_pct":-6.158502756154139,"drawdown_pct":-11.754775397915829,"annual_pct":-2.1019814538745463,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":6.116207951070336}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":327,"win_rate":50.15290519877675,"avg_win_pct":1.5011741013472737,"avg_loss_pct":1.6102003628691675,"mean_trade_pct":-0.04975567745174749,"return_pct":-0.9391611440970005,"drawdown_pct":-10.12132336890874,"annual_pct":-0.31487056815704406,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.116207951070336}