Stats

Premises 1 EEM ranks first with34.203759% dividend-adjusted252-session return and67.84>SMA61.76035. 2 raw daily and latest retrieved minute22:59UTC Sep11 both67.84; snapshots403 is not a reason to quarantine the valid signal. 3 equal slot79.426667 permits1share, while QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 exceed212.7475 hard position cap. 4 ATR20=.95264; initial stop reference67.84-1.90528=65.93472; five-year rolling60-session P90=10.717963%,1255windows,target75.111066. Adopt1share limit67.84,stop65.93,target75.11,horizon1-3months,alive72hours to include Monday. Dollar risk1.91,upside7.27,RR3.8063 before costs; gap risk can exceed stop. At fill<=limit reconcile levels to actual entry on next run; never lower existing stop. When profitable ratchet to max(existing stop,SMA200,high20-2ATR20), provided below current price. Today candidate67.21972 is NOT active before profit. No generic percentage trail approximates this formula. Review first Monday trading run and next research run for fill; if pending update only from fresh price, not stale optimism. Limit not guaranteed fill; cap and one-share minimum prevent full three-slot implementation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-11T04:00:00Z&end=2026-09-12T01:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=raw ; historical source in2781. No new backtest: mandated concept already validated.

As of Sep12 02UTC, last completed daily bars Sep11. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars (SIP adjustment=all), /data/crypto-bars; explicit UTC bounds June1 2021 to Sep12 2026, pagination exhausted. Dividend-adjusted close ratio over 252 sessions, crypto365 daily periods. SMA200 arithmetic mean; ATR20 arithmetic mean true range. Target convention entry*(1+90th percentile signed rolling60-bar simple returns) over five years; not conditional only on winning windows. 1255 stock/1826 crypto overlapping target samples, not independent forecasts. Table: symbol | return% | SMA200 | ATR20 | overall rank | qualifies | chosen shares/coins SPY | 18.4891 | 712.0452 | 5.4529 | 6 | true | 0 QQQ | 23.6988 | 659.2565 | 7.8684 | 2 | true | 0 IWM | 23.4573 | 273.1651 | 3.0705 | 3 | true | 0 EFA | 19.4581 | 100.6733 | 0.8809 | 4 | true | 0 EEM | 34.2038 | 61.7603 | 0.9526 | 1 | true | 1 GLD | 18.9435 | 415.9345 | 7.9524 | 5 | false | 0 TLT | -5.7569 | 84.5005 | 0.6911 | 7 | false | 0 BTC/USD | -33.1666 | 70029.0427 | 2437.1412 | 8 | true | 0 ETH/USD | -43.6228 | 2052.4676 | 98.9882 | 9 | true | 0 Premises: 1 seven pass SMA; 2 EEM/QQQ/IWM are strongest qualifying returns; 3 budget238.28 implies79.4267 each; 4 whole shares required for off-hours exits. Conclusion: queue EEM1, QQQ/IWM0 because single shares714.88/288.89 exceed account cap212.7475. Keep their allocations reserved, do not substitute lower ranks or overweight EEM to hide infeasibility. Signal is long; cash remainder is execution constraint, not a negative forecast. GLD/TLT fail SMA; EFA/SPY/crypto rank lower. Initial empty fund initialization; later rerank monthly/stop only. Specific accepted rule excludes repeat strategy backtest and discretionary Kelly overlays.

Start: $49.14 fund cash, $850.99 equity, zero holdings/pending. Goal: profitable dated run-ups exited before first event news. Binding constraint: independently justified executable payoff in an eligible future window, not$349.01 recovery need. Premises: (1) SRRK announced approval19days before priorgoal; cannot buy a futureSep30run-up afteractualnews (issuer25168/PI25227). TLXSep11outcome notverified; unknownstatus cannotdefineentry. (2) MondayHAIN/HITI/PLAY defaultpre-eventexitSep11 haspassed andpasttests do notvalidatea newlast-dayentry. (3) SCHLdateSep24confirmed, butT5/3Rtest2768 training-2.6403%N16, knownholdout+2.1505%N6, stress+.3282%,95%meanCIcrosses0and0targethits; traininghalfKelly0. (4) HOFTprofitscontainone-offrefunds; ORCLnewfilingaddsfinancing/leasecommitments; neitherpostresultcontextisnewrun-upedge. Conclusion: approvednotional0, noorders/stops/targetsset, preservecash. Validity: failedtiming/payoffgates implyrejectionofreviewedset. Soundnesslimitedbyselectedsmallcohorts, knownratherthannewholdout, IEXpartialfeed,unverified15minmanagement/earlynews, andboundedglobalcalendar. Strongestcountercase: SRRKapprovalandSCHLoversoldmeanreversioncanproducebigwins; pricepossibilitydoesnotcalibrateoddsorrestoretestedwindow. Newindependentpositiveeventevidencewouldchangeallocation; financialpressurewillnot. Currentfundtotal-lossstress5.77445%ofaccount,50%gap2.88723%, noassignedgapodds. Sources https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-announces-fda-approval-isembyldtm-apitegromab-mstn ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ ; https://investor.scholastic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholastic-corporation-announces-date-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex&adjustment=all ; HOFT2741andOracle2778originals. Monitors288/293/295–298armed; fivecollectorspreserved,00:15newexecutionsnotyetverifiedat00:17(snapshotstillold), actualnextoutputmustbeaudited. Lessons800–802 recorded. No outside-mandateprovenstrategyjustifiesFUNDline.

Existing5 activejobs126/132/172/223/224 allreturnedexit0andfinalEND inactualvenueoutput; observationsrecordexactlast/nexttimestamps andremainingruns. 223's23:30receiptcaughtSRRK18:25EDTapproval, thenfullissuerrelease/labelretrievedinthisrun. Newjobnotneeded:126/224at00:15,172at01:15,223at01:30providecoveragebefore02manager;132at02:15followsnextmanager. StaticoldSep30SRRKreminders incollectoroutputare supersededbyverifiedSep11approval25168/monitor288, notanewfuturePDUFA. Resolvedownmonitors24/13/279/193/280/278 withoutcomesandnamedgaps. Added288SRRKlaunch,293TLX02UTC,295PLAYoutcome,296SCHLmeeting/paperentry,297NKEprior-session,plusnewORCL02UTCcoveragefollowup. Otherfundmonitorsuntouched. Rule: inspectfreshoriginalsonnewheadline; missing/statuserror -> unknown/cash, neverinfernonewnews. No scriptsplaceorders andno queuedlimitorders. Sources runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst andprimaryURLswithinmonitors/analyses2741,2768,2778. Publicrecordsupersedesoldstaticreminders; no economicclaimfromhash alone.

Today changed: Sep11Oracle10Q original https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm accessibleviaEDGARCLI, first60kchars only. (1) Q1 OCF23.103bn includes11.363bnfinancingprepayments;capex28.499bn -> FCF-5.396bn. (2) NetATM equityissuance19.909bn fundsbuildout; exfinancingprepaymentFCF-16.759bn isanalyticalbridge, notGAAP. (3) Additional288bnleases expectedcommenceFY27Q2–FY29 for15–19years; notPVrecognizedliability. RPO664bn with13%=86.32bnexpectedrevenuewithin12months is not cash/profit andcannotoffsetleasesdollarfordollar. Strongestbear: longfixedcapacitycommitments plusdilution require utilizationandmarginstocatchup. Counter: customerprepaymentsandlargecontractedbacklogsharefundingrisk andcouldproducehighfuturecash. Threeorders: buildoutfunding -> equipment/powerpaymentsandfutureleaseobligations -> stockholdercashdependsonprofitableusagewithlessflexibility. Nonewrunupdate; noorder. CPRT Sep11 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dsctoc.htm ispreliminarytendercommunications, notcommencement/expiry. 1 plannedACVdeal ->2 regulator/integration/cashcommitment ->3 returnsoncapitalmustbeatcashalternative; counterdealerwholesaleplatformsynergies. No fixedarbitragedate fromSC TO-C. ADBE latest2filingsonlySep10/Sep8, no newSep11returned; priorcashanalysisreused, no organicgrowthbridgeverified. FullCPRTexhibittranscript andOraclelater10Qsections are explicitgaps, not presumedunchanged.

Bounded cross-market screen reaches US retail/publishing/restaurants/software, overseasNEXT/Egetis, FDA panels and macro; not an exhaustive globalcensus. Dates verified in observations25297–25304. NKEOct1approx16:15ET earnings -> defaultSep30exit; NXT.LSep17dateonly existing34; EGTX.STSep28dateonlyPDUFA, cash378MSEKasJun30 includesApr350MSEKgrossfinancing, conditionalPRV notcash. FDXexternalSep17estimate conflicts withunhelpfulissuerhomepage; no primaryconfirmation, no actabledate. Sep9FederalRegister https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-09-09/pdf/2026-18349.pdf setsOct1 09–13ET strainselectionmeeting, NOTSep24(commentdeadline) ornameddrugapproval; no companypayoffidentified, rejectentry. USMondaySep14HAINBMO/HITIandPLAYAMC remainverified; defaultlastsessionexitSep11haspassed. Prior HITI244/HAIN382/PLAY848 failedoruncertain anddifferententrywindows; no latebuy. Sources https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/NIKE-Inc--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027-Earnings-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://www.nextplc.co.uk/investors/reports-and-presentations/2026-27 ; https://attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com/aa8bae6e3da62b95404c23eb6ec2cc25a ; https://investors.fedex.com/ ; MondayissuerURLs25302–04. Crypto macrodates alone do not identify thisfund's datedcompanyrunup; no tokenevent or tradablepricededge established. Premises: calendarverification is necessary butinsufficient; eligibility/FX/payoffuncertainforforeignnames; passedwindows cannotbemoved. Conclusion zeroallocation, preserveoutcomemonitors/collectors. No separatebook proposed because no independently demonstrated outside-mandateoperation.

1. Start state supply278.67cash, account850.99, noopen/pendingpositions per context/tradequery; goal affordablebottleneckcashcapture withasymmetry. Noheldthesis, Rgain/age/stopreset notapplicable. 2. HWM2758/2759daily3Rproxy trains+62.58%,holdout+18.47%N14/stress+15.20, but current229.61 fails292.65breakout and272.24trend. LPG55.18<55.20alsofalse. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Buy-limits cannot anticipate completed-close rules. 3. FRO/STNGsignals trueinSIP but old36/4562Rholdout doesnotvalidatecurrent3R/15min/cashdividendexecution. NewFRO3.41declareddistribution exceeds2ADR; monitor287 replacesstale11 https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . This is a concrete executionconstraint, not a claimthat futuretankercashisnegative. 4. Fundamental2770/2771 andconsequences2772(citationcorrectionnote2462) attackcustomerintegration,unpaidcongestion,qualificationandcashcapture. HWMGE/CPP competitionmodelisprospective; positivehistoricaltestnotproofnewregime. No automaticGEbuy from11.75bnacquisition. 5. Due41and284resolved;102/103preserved;new29402UTC handoff. Job218cancelled/replaced226 afterlocaltest to repairSIPdelay/addHWM/updateFRO. RemoteactualENDstillpending atlastcheck;job200covers01/02UTCwith2runsleft. Nooff-hoursorder queued. 6. Conclusion noorders, noexitchanges, noFUNDproposal: allresearch fits supply. Bindingconstraint validentry+implementablepayoff, not349.01fundingshortfall. Strongcounterargument HWMpositivecostedhistorymeritsretainingwatch; quarterprobe53.19 remainsconditional, notroundedto229.61share. Soundness bounded byselectednames, adjusted dailyfills, no15minmanagementvalidation, unavailablewebcastaudio andunknowncurrentpaidnetbacks. Cash is chosen for these failedcurrentgates, notproofwholemarketlacksedge. Endjournal protectedwithin39minplan/45hardlimit.

Executed required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols SCHL --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days1095 --stop-pct5 --target-pct15. 752bars,50trades, return-20.343012%,maxDD46.486672%,win30%,meantrade-.284097%,buyhold-16.387760%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . This CLI result is a gross/default-feed diagnostic without its own reserved holdout or verified15min fills, so cannotauthorizecapital. Separate event study2768 uses explicitIEX, fees/slippage and fixed2021–24training versus2025–26knownholdout. Premises: dateconfirmedSep24 does notmakeany technicalrulevalid; CLInegative; eventstudytrainingalsonegative. Conclusion no momentum-basedentry. No parameterwinnerselected to rescue the result.

1. Trendalone is inadequate: LPGaboveSMA50butbelowprior20high;HWMfailsboth. FRO/STNGSIPbreakoutsignals share60daycorr.778;LPG/FRO.690, LPG/STNG.646. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. HWM60dayannualizedvol37.998%includesSep8discontinuity; volatilityandcorrelationarewindowdependent, notnewfiltertunedafterholdout. 3. Sep11BLSAugCPIheadline+.4MoM/core+.3,energy+2.1/gasoline+3.9;realhourly-.1 butrealweekly+.2. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm . Higherenergyconsumerpricescanbeconsistentwithstrongcarrierreceiptsandweakerenddemand; theydo notidentifywhocapturesrent. No preregisteredconsensus, so no surprisenumber orcausalexplanationofSPY+.8524%. 4. Keepfrozenentryandcostgates; no newRSI/MACD/lowvolfilteroranticipatorybuy. AllmacroreleaseperiodsareAugust, stocksignalsSeptember11.

1. Sep11completedSIPalladjusted: HWM229.61<292.65prior20 and272.2414SMA50; LPG55.18<55.20 despite45.9394SMA50. Bothfalse; buy-limit cannot encode futurecompletedbreakout. 2. FRO49.21>48.40; STNG84.52>84.51 passesby1cent inSIP, whileIEX84.45<84.52fails. InitialcollectorSTNGfalsestatementappliedtoIEX only; neitherchoosefeednorroundthresholdtoforceentry. 3. HWMreference2ADRstop213.20219/3Rtarget278.83343; LPG51.89895/65.02315; FRO46.51089/57.30733;STNG80.51631/96.53107. Illustrations—notorders/fairvalues. HWMwhole-share229.61>212.7475cap; fractionsRTHonly technicallypossible butfalseentrystillbinding. FROdistribution3.41exceeds2ADR2.69911, makingrawstopspecialhandlingmaterial. 4. ATI/AEHR/FTKsignalsfalse; fullmetrics25246–53 source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . No holdings, Rprogress/holdingageN/A, no exitreset. Evidencebasedlevels do notbythemselvesprovepositivepayoff.

No holdings: this attacks watches, not fictitious openpositions. Conditionalchains, not forecasts. FRO/STNG bear route/cargo normalization: (1)reroutingraisesgrossfreight,(2)termcoverlocks someincome whilefuel/ballastcostsabsorbpart,(3)newcapacity/reopeningcompressesfuturecash. FROasset-sale dividendreturns capitalbutremoves earningassets; originals in2764/25195. LPG bear unpaidcongestion: (1)slotsrestrictaccess,(2)A31minimum3LPG/dayandrepeatbookingsmayrelievecosts,(3)netvoyagecashratherthangrossratesdecidesownerbenefit; https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf ; Augustactual1029transits fromA34 is notSeptemberbookingoutput https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf . HWM/ATI bear customerintegration andqualificationoverruns: (1)scarcityprotectspricing,(2)OEMsfinancecompetingcapacityandvendorsfundworkingcapital,(3)renewals/acceptedoutputdecideprofitshare; original10Ks/GEagreement in2763. AEHR bear customerconcentration anddeliveryrisk: (1)AItestingorder,(2)components/qualificationdelayconversion,(3)acceptanceandrepeatcustomersdecidemargin; Sep10conference isnotneworder https://www.aehr.com/newsroom/ . FTK bear logisticsandcashconversion: (1)Saudi chemistryoutlookraisesFYrevenue20m,(2)incrementalEBITDA3m implies15%beforecapitalneeds,(3)collectionorfinancingdecidesshareholderbenefit https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales . Counterargument: Howmet/FROalreadyreportrealprofits, so lackofperfectforecastcannotjustifypermanentcash. Currententry/implementationgates—notfear—keepallocationzero. Mostimportantuncertainty is who retains netcash afterrequalification/capex, notwhetherbottleneckexists.

1. Sep11issuer now declares.80special aftertwoVLCCsalecompletion, plus2.61quarterly=3.41; expectedNYSEexSep18/payaboutSep28. This supersedes conditional-undatedspecial assumption https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . 2. At49.21,distribution6.9295%/2.5268ADR; mechanical49.21-3.41=45.80 belowillustrative2ADRstop46.51089. A rawstop could fire on distribution mechanics even without businessdeterioration; no holding exists, so no stop reset. Not free6.93%profit. 3. Strongbear: route normalization/cargoloss reduces futureutilization, vessel-sales shrink earningcapacity, nonrecurringcashcannotannualize. Strongbull: FROQ2adjustedprofit580.2m; Q3VLCC156900/day86%covered vs23800estimatedcashbreakeven, but issuerexpectsballastdays to lowerwholequarterTCE https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ . 4. STNGlocks three-yearLR2rates40188/42500 versus64900currentQ3spotfixtureaverage; contractvisibilitytrades upside forstability https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ . Neither promises realized cash. PriorFRO36/456test2R/dailyproxy cannot authorize new3R/rawdividendexecution. Noorders; monitor287 replaces11. Factsendatissuerdeclaredterms; theoreticalexpriceis a mechanicsillustration andratecyclesarehypotheses.

1. Start: no exposure; goal buy qualified-capacity cash capture; binding constraint is durable contract economics and executable entry. HWM Q2FCF479m and EPSguide5.27mid show realized cash but Sep11price229.61 implies43.5693xforwardadjustedEPS, not obviously cheap. https://www.howmet.com/press-release/2026-08-06/howmet-aerospace-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/ . 2. GE's Sep8CPPagreement11.75bn,18xsynergy/26xstandalone2027EBITDA and H2'27conditionalclose creates a credible customer-integration bearcase: https://www.geaerospace.com/news/press-releases/ge-aerospace-acquire-consolidated-precision-products-cpp-expanding-mission-critical . It does not itself create immediate casting capacity or cancel HWMorders. Demand>30%2026–30 is>6.779%CAGR, not30%annual, andCPP~2bn2027revenue means5.875xprice/revenue https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40545/000095014226002501/eh260827362_ex9901.htm . 3. Counterexample to instantdisplacement: Sep9Plant says GEamongcustomersaskingforcapacity andLTAs define share; transcript25237 is speaker evidence, not contractaudit https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hwm/transcripts/740198-jefferies-global-industrials-conference-2026/ . Reconcile by horizon: protectednear-termshare can coexist with long-termrenewalpressure. 4. HWM10K lists sole/limited material suppliers and captivecustomerfurnaces; ATI10K warns surcharge lag andcriticalindustrialgases. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm . ATI HPMC24.1% vs24.9%margin demonstrates qualificationcosts despite demand https://ir.atimaterials.com/news-events/news-details/2026/ATI-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx . Conclusion retain HWM watch, no blanket supplierbuy or automaticGEbuy. Validity: corporate acquisition is not instantaneouseconomicdisplacement. Soundness limited by undisclosed contractualremedies,capacityramp and third-partytranscript; originalwebcast404. Upgrade only with firmprofitablecapacitydelivery andvalidpriceentry; downgrade with cancellation/repricing ormaterialcostoverrun.

Numpyseed91200;100000 IID paths of10 trades resampled from16 SCHL trainingevent returns ofthe preregisteredT5/1ADRstop/3ADRtarget dailyproxy. Same underlying22issuerdatecohort andexplicitIEXsource https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex&adjustment=all . Quarterfunddeploymentmeanterminal-.258428%,lossfrequency55.485%,p05/p95[-4.54516,+4.46660]%,95thpercentileDD5.10136%. Fullfundmean-1.14268%,lossfrequency57.209%,p05/p95[-17.35808,+18.26072]%,95thDD19.18431%. These are model frequenciesconditionalon16events, not estimates from100000independentobservations, and omitunseenFDAgaps/regimechanges. Premises: historicaltrainingedge negative; repeatedtrades compoundthatloss; sizingonlychangesamplitude. Conclusion allocation0, traininghalfKelly0; cannot manufacturepositiveexpectancybyquarterprobe. Strongcountercase unseennewregimecouldimprovepayoff, but needsprospectiveevidence, not shortfall349.01. Hardlimit: fund49.14; anassumed50%wholefundgap costs24.57=2.88723%account, totalloss5.77445%; these deterministicstresslosses carry no assignedodds. No traded simulation andno live stop.

Frozen before new returns in note2456: T-5open to T-1close, stop1 prior20ADR, target3ADR, static daily proxy.22 issuer release dates https://investor.scholastic.com/financial-information/quarterly-results verified, train2021–24N16, knownholdout2025–Jul2026N6. ExplicitIEX adjusted1429bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SCHL&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . Python custom entry-day/gap-open stop-first barrier fills with targets capped; vectorbt longonly from_orders, fees5bp/slip10bp eachside, initialcash100. Reconciled count and compounded returns exactly. Two marks/session drawdown includes entryfees but missesintradaytrough; no15min/+2Rtrailing or dividendcash execution validated. Training return-2.64033%,DD12.96266%,win37.5%,mean-.107976%,W4.11688%,L2.64289%,5targets. Knownholdout+2.15046%,DD7.22507%,win66.667%,mean+.407757%,W2.16255%,L3.10184%,ZEROtargets. Bootstrap20k95%meanCI[-2.03654,3.12124]%. Stress25bpslip givestrain-7.20323%,holdout+.328197%,win50%,CI[-2.32999,2.81234]%. T3/T10 sweep training negative underbothcosts, holdoutsalso negative; no bestvariantadoption. Gross3R geometry is less than3R net and empiricalwins aretimeexits, notdemonstratedtailcapture. HalfKelly capitalformula .5*(pW-(1-p)L)/(WL) yields0 intraining; mechanicallycapped1 inselectedknownholdout is unstable andNOTadopted. Prior763 hadseen sameholdout; this is a changedexit robustness experiment, not fresh independentOOS. Historicaldateannouncementavailability/earlynews and corporateactionexecution remain gaps. Conclusion noentry; preserveSep17paperwindow, notMondayearlierentry. Scripts research/test_schl.py, manifestobservations andtradeoutcomes25287 saved.

Start account850.99/fund235.86cash,0holdings/0pending, goal positive executable expectancy. Binding constraint is no fresh frozen next-open entry plus unimplemented exactoff-run trail policy. Numbered premises:1 latestETH2516.066<2664.8535 and BTC/SOLfalse; FridayETH13UTCentryavailable14UTCwasrealbutmissed.2 Dailyclose screentrue is a different rule.3 ReusedcostedhourlyETH17.2404%N6/DD19.8302/win66.67% has uncertainmean; dailycomparator−17.6325%,15min22.1719%; noindependentlateentrytest.4 USDCnet7d−.25bn weakens liquidity prior; no fundingextreme or verifiedFridayETFcreations.5 Eightfreshquotes withETH83USDdepth and~.542%fee/spread hurdle do not fix missingentry. Conclusion noorders, keep235.86cash as chosen position; no holdings to alter exits. Strongestcounterargument cashmissesfattails; executiongap recorded and collectorsbufferedthrough04:15, notansweredwithretroactivebuy. FractionalreturnKelly fromp4/6,w.05848427,l.03072019 is16.0017 before half; half8.00086 exceeds cash. Hardminfund235.86/account25%212.7475/normal3%riskcap bounds fullnotional212.7475; quarterceiling53.186875 and3.853959 nominalrisk use past7.2461%stop, not recommendation. Supersede automatic reuse of old29.4825 as quarterKelly; actual0 and allfutureprices/risk recomputed. Lossgaps canexceedstop. Operator349.01shortfall excluded. Resolve181CPI/275preopen, new29202UTC entry/path/job review; retain104Arc,152GME,35Sepolia. Jobs227/228/229 accepted,0remoteENDat00:11; localENDpassed,14/25retained. Gaps: exactlive trailing activation, historicalbidask/feeledger, OIhistory, datedETFflows, lateentryrule, attributionofexchangeflows, secondLiquidexplorertimeout andnewclientactivationconfig. No newFUND proposal. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Analysis2751–2756,2763/2765/2766 carry evidence. Validconditionalreasoning; soundness explicitly limited by costs/execution and tinyreusedsample.

NEW limited path replay, reconstructed after observations, not prospectiveOOS or full-policy validation. Frozen signal Sep11 13UTCclose2628.4075>2565.9 known14UTC; rawnextopen2629.65,entryafter10bpslip2632.27965. ATR14 from completedSep10days88.0134936902; initialstop2456.25266262,target3223.79684108 solves net3R with25bpcreditedfees eachside/10bpexitslip. Replay40completed15minbars to23:45. Peak2664.8535,low2506.24: +2R and initialstop/target not touched; no dynamictransition needed in this interval. vectorbt Portfolio.from_orders init_cash1, effectiveentryprice=fill/.9975,qty1/effectiveprice,fee0 becauseencodedinprice,rawwealth equality0error. Mark−4.653905788%,hypotheticalliquidation−4.987378753%,closeDD4.079390856%,N1open/N0closed,winrateundefined. At23:45−.6602036R,20dayhorizonOct1 14UTC notelapsed. No observedstopbreak and no reason to tighten a hypothetical red trade. Prior29.4825illustration givesmark−1.372088 andnetstoprisk2.136323USD; actual0. Strongestcounter: cheaperlateentry maywork but has untestedconditioning. Avoid recasting the missed signal as an avoided completed loss. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observation25230.

NO new historical train/holdout sweep. Read original2605/2606/2469 with query_research fundcrypto. Frozen prior480hourHIGH/240hourLOW,2ATR14/net3R,20daytimeout,+2RcostBE/2ATRtrail; next exactopen,25bpcreditedfees/10bpslip and20bpstress. 2024–25 training versus reused2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC holdout. HourlyETH train33.250114%N19,test17.240439%DD19.830197%win4/6,stress15.841958%; daily20HIGH/10LOW train2.029153%N15,test−17.632466%DD27.353641%win1/5. Prior15min test22.171852%N6,stress20.714547%. The policies differ; dailyfailure is not automatically a veto of hourlywatch. Prior raw/vectorbtinitcash1 reconciliation reported2.45e−15. Premises: six reused trades leave expectancy uncertain; later Friday signal is now observed but its nextopen passed; live +2R activation and delayedstopfills remain different from simulated policy. Conclusion no retroactiveentry or retuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Existing sample not counted as fresh validation.

Edge test: BB frozen12 issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026 median absolute9.987505%; Sep11 S7.67/Oct2C8 .45 plus .05 assumed costs requires+10.821382%,4/12; P7.5 .41 requires-8.213820%,3/12. HITI N9 median5.494505%; Sep11 S2.53/Oct16C2.5 .21 requires+9.090909%,1/9. GIS N9 June2024-Jul2026 median3.063603%; Sep10 S35.96 Oct16C40 .38/P32.5 .50 costed hurdles+12.430478/-11.151279%,0/9 each. No40% pass or documented3x expected payout. Closes not executable prices; intrinsic proxy excludes residual time. Dates: BB issuer Sep10 'September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET' https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 ; HITI Aug25 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; GIS Aug26 'September 23, 2026' and 'issued that morning' https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx . Expiry8/32/23 days after respectively; default exits Sep23/Sep11/Sep22 RTH. Sources option_contracts, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars, historical issuer URLs in event observations. 1. Start account850.99/fund178.71 allcash, goalqualifiedlongdatedeventoption, bindingconstraintpositivevalidatedpayoff+wholecontractsize. Noowntrades, noholdings, noexitstorevise. 2. UpdatedGISdelayedSep11S35.85 C40.39/P32.5.48 costedhurdles12.803347/10.822873%,0/9. PLAYSept11S8.14C10.35/P7.45costed[{"K":10,"p":0.35,"n":12,"hurdle":27.764127764127757,"hits":0},{"K":7,"p":0.45,"n":12,"hurdle":20.147420147420153,"hits":0}]; median10.624339%,N12rejection. IssuerSep1 'after the market closes on September 14, 2026' https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 . 3. BB4/12improvedbutnot40%; atfixed7.67callprice<=.302576plus.05reserve gets5/12. Repriceuponfreshquotes, noautomaticlimit; halfKellyactualunknown/scenario0. Normalfullpremium<=25.5297, conviction<=42.5495, mandateabsolute51.0594; atmost3 andfullpremiumnotgapstopdefinesrisk. Nojustifytargetfromneed. 4. HITI/PLAYdefaultSep11pre-eventexitpassedflat; noMondaylateentrywithoutnewqualifiedanalysisandexplicitexception. BBdefaultSep23/GISSep22. OptionstradeRTHonly, so noovernightorders. 5. Resolve276/220/256retrospectively, preserveoutcomemonitors; new289next02UTC,290/291GIS, collector230testedlocally/ackactive80x240min, actualfirstreceiptpending. Existing192/199/210laterreceiptsrecoveredJSONfailure. TLXSep11decisionremainsunverified; monitor277alsoCPI/KR/HOFTcoveragewasnotfullyreviewedandremainsdue, explicitlyopen. FedExcalendarinitialsearchdidnotestablishfullreleaseplan; noFDXstudy/claim. Marketcoveragebounded, notexhaustivecensus; nounevidencednewfundproposal. 6. Strongcashcounterargumentisforegonetails; ZUMZ50%markgainshowspossibilitybut90USDentryineligible. Premisesvalidforrejectingcurrenttickets, historicalsampledoesnotproveallfutureticketsbad. Lessonsrecorded, noorders.

Fresh CLI run Sep12~00:02UTC: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days730. 731dailybars each. BTC return25.666493%,DD13.536724%,win32.653061%,N49,BH32.888403%;ETH28.850813%,DD24.943256%,win21.052632%,N38,BH6.441285%;SOL80.474020%,DD18.795394%,win53.125%,N32,BH−24.648991%. Premise1 inspected code uses same-close fills, priorCLOSE breakout and signal exit; zero explicit costs, partial currentday allowed, no heldout split. Premise2 these differ from frozenHIGH/LOW net3R execution. Conclusion: diagnostic only, no deployment or Kelly based on gross returns. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest/{engine,bars,cli}.js. Full diagnostics observation25231–33; retained costed experiment audited separately.

1. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; OLS HWM dailyreturn=a+b*SPY on60sessions endingSep4 beforeSep8: beta.867538,alpha-.005349%/day. Sep8HWM-10.69927%,SPY-.549215%,residual-10.21746pp. Retrospective event selection; residual is not attribution to GEdeal or subsequent reversal forecast. 2. Last60return correlation FRO/STNG .778 (fullmatrixcorr.csv), LPG/FRO .690: shipping positions share risk. 3. query_tradesfund=supply actualN2both operatorliquidated: FRO3.80516%,STNG.75226%,mean2.27871%,wins100%; illustrative exactbinomial95%lower15.8114% assumesindependence that these correlatedpositions lack. No losingtrade sample or arrivalquotes, so average loss/slippage/order-type edge unidentifiable. Originaltargets2.61446R/2.15126R fall belowcurrent3Rpolicy; positionsalreadyclosed, notlevels toreset. Conclusion no sizing from apparent100%winrate, no causal macro story fromoneevent. Records25267 and twoqueriedlots.

1. Training completedN30 p46.6667%,avgwin9.30997%,avgloss4.58913%;mean1.89712%. NumPyseed91200,IIDbootstrap30000x20trades: full-notional terminal5/50/95=-17.7906/+37.4368/+135.9484%;loss15.6767%,20%DD38.8067%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-.71885,4.61327]%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Two-point halfKelly fraction of notional=(p*w-(1-p)*l)/(2*w*l)=2.22017, not a risk-budget fraction; no leverage allowed. Equity850.99/fund278.67/positioncap212.7475 caps fullnotional212.7475 and quarterprobe53.186875. Currentshare229.61 cannot fitwhole, but fractions technicallypossible inRTH. Allocation0 because currententryfalse, dailyproxydoesnotvalidate15minpolicy; not because simulation demands certainty. 3. IID path odds are conditional on a tiny selected historical distribution, not forecasts under GE/CPP regime. Gapthroughstop could lose more than modeled. No funding-shortfall input.

Required CLI breakout20/days2000/stop8/target24 executed and source inspected: IEX1373bars/125trades,return-4.39663%,DD22.97377%,wins33.6%,buyhold626.78063%. Same-signal-close/ownsignalexit/no costed chronologicalholdout: diagnostic only, not same3Rpolicy. Customvectorbt predeclared10/20/40:10train41.6184/hold30.6466(stress32.5733/26.7854);40train-33.4950/hold-9.3330(stress-37.3680/-11.8364). All12cells recorded25254–65. No switch to10 based on holdout;40failure limits parameter robustness. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . cli-hwm.json/validate.py persisted locally. No new entry rule or order.

1. Protocol note2455 frozen before history: completed close>prior20 close high AND>SMA50, enter next open, fixed2ADR20stop/6ADRtarget, gap exits at open, stop-first dual touch,40session exit, longonly cash. Warmup2020; training2021–24/holdout2025–Sep11'26, boundaries start flat. 2. Vectorbt orders use separate opening/intraday slots; explicit longonly fixed unintended default shorts before accepting results. Every closed cash return including entry fees reconciles manual calculation. N14, no open terminal mark. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, stress15bpslip. Return18.4662%,DD23.4817%,win35.7143%;stress15.1951%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . 3. Daily touch fills and adjusted prices do not reproduce venue15minute/overnight execution, +2R management or cash-dividend entitlement. No costs observed from live fills. Historical selected-name holdout is chronological, not pristine prospective validation. Current entry false; zero order. Strong counterargument: positive base/stress warrants preserving the candidate. Sensitivity40fails, meanCIcross0 and currentcompetitionregime remain unresolved. Artifacts validate.py/backtests.json/trades.json; observations25254–57.

1. Protocol note2455 frozen before history: completed close>prior20 close high AND>SMA50, enter next open, fixed2ADR20stop/6ADRtarget, gap exits at open, stop-first dual touch,40session exit, longonly cash. Warmup2020; training2021–24/holdout2025–Sep11'26, boundaries start flat. 2. Vectorbt orders use separate opening/intraday slots; explicit longonly fixed unintended default shorts before accepting results. Every closed cash return including entry fees reconciles manual calculation. N30, no open terminal mark. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, stress15bpslip. Return62.5755%,DD23.2279%,win46.6667%;stress53.1078%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . 3. Daily touch fills and adjusted prices do not reproduce venue15minute/overnight execution, +2R management or cash-dividend entitlement. No costs observed from live fills. Historical selected-name holdout is chronological, not pristine prospective validation. Current entry false; zero order. Strong counterargument: positive base/stress warrants preserving the candidate. Sensitivity40fails, meanCIcross0 and currentcompetitionregime remain unresolved. Artifacts validate.py/backtests.json/trades.json; observations25254–57.