Stats

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-3 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":3,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"train2021-24","return":0.44620105611007604,"drawdown":4.308830456010848,"win rate":52.94117647058824,"sample":17,"mean_pct":0.037852005992233165,"mean_ci_low_pct":-0.6783187155992108,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.7715948216426869,"targets":0,"stops":4,"avg_win_pct":1.2344806313739611,"avg_loss_pct":1.308355197562211,"half_kelly_fraction":1.171787767762222,"manual_vbt_error":5.776629175002768e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":-5.039838491443461,"drawdown":7.333740724253024,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-0.842833376365291,"mean_ci_low_pct":-2.279755813597423,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.3860451864665141,"targets":0,"stops":2,"avg_win_pct":0.3582273127739455,"avg_loss_pct":3.2449547546437643,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":2.1510571102112408e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand15bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":15,"partition":"train2021-24","return":-7.441681010285829,"drawdown":9.492890812502475,"win rate":47.05882352941176,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-0.4366840342314251,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.2877487245436179,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.4509469874292036,"targets":0,"stops":8,"avg_win_pct":1.2764946589204962,"avg_loss_pct":1.9595095392553552,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":1.2351231148954867e-15}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"holdout2025-26","return":-3.893450741555898,"drawdown":6.308690142544837,"win rate":66.66666666666666,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-0.64432038123813,"mean_ci_low_pct":-2.0948655186051286,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.5870184007836861,"targets":0,"stops":2,"avg_win_pct":0.5591448356104811,"avg_loss_pct":3.0512508149353526,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":7.216449660063518e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Fixed CAG earnings runup study,23issueractual07:30ET first-newsdates2021–Jul2026,Jan4duplicate removed. Training2021–24N17/heldout2025–26N6 fixed before returns. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/investor-relations/financial-news/earnings-announcements (yearIDs456/461/466/471/476/481),missingOct2'24/Oct1'25retrievedactualprn122901/122936; each eventURLandtimestamprecorded. ExplicitSIPadjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Rule entryT-5 open, prior20simpleATR stop1ATR,target3ATR,forceT-1close. DailyOHLCproxy:gapstops/targetsatopen,stopfirstifboth,entrydaystopsincluded. Vectorbtcashportfolio withopen/closemarks,1bpfeesand5bpslippageeachside; close/openmarkDDnot15minorintrabarmaxDD. Returnagreesmanualcompoundto<3e-15. Results {"window":5,"slippage_bp":5,"partition":"train2021-24","return":-4.240584421467301,"drawdown":7.770626275636083,"win rate":52.94117647058824,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-0.23735792669776246,"mean_ci_low_pct":-1.1056331964765072,"mean_ci_high_pct":0.6752835244650862,"targets":0,"stops":8,"avg_win_pct":1.325795019131474,"avg_loss_pct":1.9959049907556536,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"manual_vbt_error":4.85722573273506e-16}. PrimaryT5;T3/T10sensitivityonly,nobestholdoutselection. T5trainingnegative/holdoutnegative;T3positivebase butstresstrainingnegative;T10holdoutnegative. Noqualifiedentry. Historicaldatesareactualrelease,fullpreannouncementauditnotdone;no+2Rquarter/trailingpolicy, noexecutionvalidation. ThisisnewreservedhistoricalholdoutforCAG,notprospectiveforwarddata. Two-outcomehalfKellyrawcanexceed1forvariants,notleveragedauthorization;qualifiedprimaryallocation0.

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG,MU,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; explicit SIP returned200with1682bars each/nextpagetokennull, IEXalso200with1537/1540bars; todayfeedaccesssupersedesprior403withoutassumingpermanententitlement. Sep11CAG14.60 belowSMA20/50/20015.796/15.0274/15.38265;20dayreturn-5.133%,ATR20 .41226,annualRV20 27.348%. Illustrativestop14.18774,target15.83678=1ATRrisk/3ATRreward,gross+8.4711%target versusfull2020–26rolling5daygain90thpercentile3.80166%; targetmuchmoreambitiousthanusualfive-sessiongain. Notlivelevels:noentryandfutureATRmustbefrozenatentry. MU975.26 aboveall3SMAs962.80675/928.6069/621.932575,ATR46.328885,RV54.011%,20day+2.677%;3ATRtarget+14.2515%versus5dayq90+10.4587%,onewhole-shareunaffordableat49.14fundcap. Fractional possible butdoesnotestablisheventedgeorafterhoursprotection. SPY764.29<SMA20766.879,>SMA50758.6164,20day-1.747%,ATR5.45286; modestmarketweaknessdifferentfromCAGstructuraldecline. Indicatorsarecorrelateddiagnostics, notmultipleindependentconfirmations. No trade; 15minute/+2Rmanagementnotvalidatedbydailybars.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. Start850.99account/178.71fund allcash,0open/closed/pendingowntrades. Goalqualifiedconvexlongoption; bindingconstraintswholepremium,signedcoverageandregularsession. 2. Directory13181securities,delayedbars12024,1157missing;filter1–20USDand>=1mturnover/nonETF1554. Full-directoryattemptnotcompleteglobalcensus. Snapshot403stormstopped;delayedtwo-workerrepairrecoveredvalidsymbols. PrimarytopchecksACVAdealundated,TNONpastrepayment,NOKOct22needsOct30+expiry/N0study,MARAcalendarnoevent; sevennonUS/cryptoquotescannotvalidateoptions. 3. Noordersclosedmarketandnoqualifiededge. Max3tickets withpremiumstrictnormal3%/conviction5%,absolute6%; capaloneisnotrecommendedallocation. Profitshortfall349.01notinput. No3Rtargetdefensibleonrejectedoptions,notinventone. Cash178.71writtenreasonfailedgates,notclaimnothingintheworldqualifies. Preserveprospectivecollectorsandmonitors, next04UTCresearch.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. numpyseed912 iidresample9signedCAGreturns,3hypothetical49dollarall-inP14.5tickets on178.71book, mappedintrinsicatS14.6. Meanterminal107.7455,88.596%losingseries,47.218%all3lose,p5terminal40.0082; eachticketabove5%accountcap evenoldprice. 2. This frozenOLD.44+.05costscenario isdeliberatelynotcurrent.60premium, andnotactualoptionforecast; excludesresidualtime, changingIV, spreads, correlatedreturns and15minexits. CAGnaivehalfKelly0 because negativeexpectednetpayoff. LWcurrentP40syntheticintrinsichalfKelly12.1892%ofriskcapital, but37.5%gatefails/premium55>cap: approvedsize0. Counterexampleresidualvaluemayimprovepayoff; uncertaintycannotwaiveentrygate.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. RequiredCLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CAG --strategy rsi --days1000:685bars,N27,return-1.73228%,DD14.21016%,win51.85185%,buyhold-50.4999%; diagnosticstockrule, noeventedge orholdout. 2. SeparatevectorbtSIPall-adjusted2023–Sep11:laggedcloseRSI14/WilderEWM entriesexecutednextopen,exitthreshold;fees5bp/slip10bp eachside,9grid25/30/35x45/50/55. Trainthrough2025all9negative,best25/45-8.9501%N5;2026heldout+2.5160%N1/DD4.9546/win100%. Holdoutdisplayedfortransparencynotselection; no trainedwinner andnoadoption. Othergridobservations25585+. CLI andvectorbtdata/strategydefinitionsdifferent,donotsplice. Optionreturn/DD/winrateunavailable; thesearestockcontrols, notoptionPnL.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. CAG/LWpriceconcessions -> retailer/restaurantinputrelief -> suppliermarginpressure -> capacityclosures/capexcuts mayeventuallyrestorepricing. Countercasecustomerwins/productivityoffsetdiscounts. 2. ACVA $10.50cashdeal versusS10.41 leaves.864553%stockspread; expandeddealerplatform -> crosssell/logistics -> competitorresponse; projected2028accretionnotcurrentcash. Source https://investors.acvauto.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/copart-to-acquire-acv-expanding-position-across-the-vehicle-remarketing-ecosystem . Exactclosingdateabsent,N0matchedoptionedge. 3. TNON5.16mnotesrepaid -> discountconversionremoved -> runwaydependsonremainingcash -> futurefinancingcanredilute; alreadyhappenedSept9, nofutureentry. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1560293/000121390026098232/ea030488401ex99-1.htm . No newfundproposalwithoutnetcostedstrategy.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. CAGJul15FY26original https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 FCF978.7m(-24.9%),netdebt7.1bn/3.83x; FY27EPSguide1.40–1.50,margin10–10.5%,organic-3to-1%. Volume-1.6%vsprice/mix+1.6% and53rdweek+7.7% showreportedgrowthnotorganicacceleration. AtS14.6 forecastadjustedPE9.73–10.43x (assumesguide), lowmultiplealone noedge. 2. LWApr1Q3primary https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/9f03ff19-1e8d-4002-ad45-ea16a804db88 volume+7%/price-mix-7%; writeoff32.5m,OCFimprovement110.3m lessworkingcapitalbenefit130m; historicalbaseline notlatestquarter. Demandweaknessbenefitsprice-sensitivebuyers; costcuts/capexrestraintcouldstabilizecash,counteringputs. Sourcesissuerbiased; outcomesnotindependentlyauditedhere. Needpaidcashandretainedmargin, notconsensusheadlines.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. Combinepricebelow20/200SMA andRSI35.52; this is neitheroversold<30 norprovenearningsdirection. 2. Nineevents insufficientforfittingjointconditionalfilter; donotsubselectlosersafterseeingoutcome. Fullsampleentrygate retained. Priorexpectationweakcashmayfavorputs; counterexampleimprovedguidancecanrallydespiteweaktrailingcash. Requireprospectiveoutcome andcostedoptionhistorybefore changingrule.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. S14.60<SMA20 15.796 andSMA200 15.38265; ATR20 .41226,RSI14 35.5222,RV20 .273481annualized. 2. Downtrend contextconsistentwithfundamentalsbut an8.9%catalogcallhurdle is3.15ATR, current7.8767% is2.79ATR. Putcurrent5.137% is1.82ATRbutcost60failscap; ATRnoteventprobability. A reversal counterexample defeatsautomaticmomentum extrapolation; nextsession prices canchange. No technicaltrade andno stop/targetin underlying mistakenlyappliedtooption.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. Daily signed stockreactions mapped to current strike/premium, all9CAGquarters; LW8morning releases withOct2024excludedforhourambiguity. 2. Price/turnover screen is discoveryonly and currentlisting survivorbiased; no independentprobability estimates. CAGmostrecent2026N2bothnegative<1.26%, no putcostcoverage; historicaltailOct2024notguaranteerepeat. LW N8 vs9sensitivitybothfail40%. FoursharedreleasedatesDec2024/Apr2025/Dec2025/Apr2026 correlation.985243, N4too small forforecastbut warnscommonconsumer/macrobet. Validity: entryrequiresgate, observedgatesfail, so reject. Soundnesslimitedbycloses,corporateadjustments, smallsamples andLWtiming. Counterexample: residualtimecouldmakerealoptionsworthmorethanintrinsic; withoutactualnetoptionhistorythisdoesnotdocumentmispricing.

Premises:1 Arc Aug5 issuer schedulesSep16publicmainnet; officialCirclecommunitybroadcast18:00–19:45UTC iseventtime,notactivationepoch.2 CircleSep8Tazapayagreement expects2027closing, >25bnannualizedpayments/about60%alreadystablecoins; assume25bnbase gives15bnexistingstablecoinflows and10bnotherrails, not25bnnewUSDCstock.3 Q2issuerUSDCtransactionvolume+151% versusrevenue/reserveincome+7% illustrates thatvelocity andfee/reserve economics differ. Firstorder: localpayoutdistribution mayreduce settlementfriction. Secondorder: greater USDC usage mayraiseaveragebalances OR simplyraiseturnover withsamebalances. Thirdorder: Circle maycapture reserve/servicesincome whileETH/SOLvaluecapture dependswhereactivitysettles; Arc cancompete withtheirfees. Allcausalarrows hypotheses. Strongestbull: morecrosschaincollateraldemandbenefitsETH/SOLalongsideArc. Strongestbear: migration+cannibalization+lowerreserv yieldsmeanheadlinegrowthdoesnotconverttoincrementalearnings. ExistingcoinholdersdonotreceiveCirclecorporateearnings automatically. No2027acquisitionfundamental used asovernightentry. ETHAissuerSep11NAV19.18/shares467.2m establishescurrentstock, notdailycreations; staleSep10closingprice mustnotbemixed. Watchactualonchainfees,nativeversusbridgedsupply andissuerchanges. Sources https://community.arc.io/public/events/arc-mainnet-launch-livestream ; https://www.arc.io/blog/arc-mainnet-goes-live-on-september-16-2026 ; https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-expands-global-payments-infrastructure-with-agreement-to-acquire-singapore-based-cross-border-payments-platform-tazapay ; https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf . Recordedfacts separatedfromscenarios; no independentlypricedcoinpayoff,orders0.

Conagra:1 dividendcut retainscash andcapex/brandspendingrises;2 retailers/suppliersmayreceiveinvestmentorpriceconcessions beforeequitybenefits;3 onlypaidvolumeandmarginrecovery cantranslatecashretentionintohigherreturns. Counter: spendfailsandnewCEOresetunveilsfurtherweakness. Oracle:1 customerprepay/equityfinancesdatacenters;2 equipment/power/landprovidersgetpaidbeforecustomerutilizationmatures;3 fixedleasecommitmentsanddilutionmakeequitypayoffdependonfutureprofitableuse. Counter: prepaidcontractedcapacity+timingflexibilitysharetherisk. Copart:1 acquireACVcashfunded;2 integratebuyers/logisticsacrossseparatebrandsplusnewtech/trainingcost;3 higherauctionliquiditycouldliftconsignorrecoveriesandfeesbutmustoutpaceinsurancevolumeweaknessandcostpercar. CEObenefitsfromgrowthstory; noquantifiedsynergycashorclosingdateyet. Arc:1 Sep16plannedlaunch;2 existingUSDCmaymigratewithnonewnetliquidity;3 increasedtransactionsneednotincreaseETH/SOLtokenvalueorCirclecashproportionately,Q2volume+151%versusrevenue+7%. These arecausalhypotheses, notestimatedstockreturnprobabilities. Sources https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dex992.htm ; https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results . No order andno independentout-of-mandateedgeforFUNDproposal.

Recovered Oraclefull139225characterplainfiling andselectedlaterMD&A/RiskFactors https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm . Premise1: original laterMD&A explicitlyfullyutilized20bnATM/approx141mnewshares;19.9bnnet proceedsarepastfunding, not remainingcapacity. Cash/securities37.077bn andmanagement12monthliquidityassertion+discretionarycapexflexibility arecounterarguments againstimminentfundingfailure. Premise2: OCF23.103bn includes11.363bnfinancingprepayments,capex28.499bn,FCF-5.396bn; simpleexprepayFCF-16.759bn diagnostic notGAAP. Prior288bnfutureleasesnotPVdebt. No newearningsdate fromfinancingfacts. Copart actualSep10Q&A inSep11exhibit https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dex992.htm clarifies firstfull-yearaccretionFY28, currentyearbreakeven; cash-funded nofinancingcondition,customaryregulatoryreview,end2026expectedclosurenotfixeddate. CEO>2bnpostdeal cash isforecast. Distinctbrands retained,butbuyers/logistics integrated;capex/training/technologyinvestment needed. Q4USinsuranceunits-7.5%,cost/car+12.7%,opincome-10.6%contradictpureliquiditybullstory. CFO17m longhaulcostincrease maysupportnewfees,counter toallcostswaste. Tenderstillnotcommenced per https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dsctoc.htm . Conclusion watcheconomics, no runuporder ormergerdateguess. Q&A coveragegapclosed; annualORCL10Kriskreviewandfuturedealtermsremainseparatework.

Primary July15 original https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 and Aug31 https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962. Premises: (1) FY26 FCF979m versus dividends670m leaves309m before other cash uses, net debt7.1bn/leverage3.83x. FY27 capex550m versus423m means+127m/+30.0%, while organic salesguided-3to-1%,margin10to10.5%,EPS1.40to1.50. (2) Dividend cutto0.70annual from1.40 conserves approximately335m/year at479mshares, assumptionconstant shares notissuerforecast. (3) At14.60Sep11SIP, forwardadjustedEPSmultiple9.73–10.43x and annualdividendyield4.79%; valuationmultiples are proxies notintrinsicvalue. (4) Q4reported3.6%growth includes7.7pp53rdweek, whileorganicflat combines+1.6price/mix/-1.6volume, not organicgrowth. Conclusion: affordable earningsrunupcandidate, not automaticallycheap; fundamental recovery needsvolume andcashprogress onSep30. Countercase: lowexpectations,newCEO,dividendretention andleadingbrands could permitasymmetricrebound. Bindingconstraint isnetpre-eventedge, notbalance-sheetimminentfailureor49.14affordability. Hardlimit: netleverageforecast4x andcapexrising reduce cash flexibility. Facts above fromissuer; runupprobabilityunknownuntiltest; noorder.

Numberedpremises:1 CircleSep10issuerreports74.06bnUSDC,7dnetissuance−.25bn,30d+2.02bn,365d+1.80bn; rates−35.7m/day,+67.3m/day,+4.93m/day.2 OKXlast100settled8hobservations latestBTC.3247286bp18thpercentile,ETH.2742782bp17th,SOL.6055496bp67th; positive and not extreme5/95tail.3 Fresh02:08OIquantities27233.098BTC/626595.462ETH/2722165.77SOL are onevenue snapshots notpositionsideor historicalpercentile.4 LlamaSep12USDC74.462bn andissuerSep10 74.06bn have differentcutoffs;not contradictory estimatesofsameinstant. Conclusion do not claim persistentglobalcashcontraction from7dredemptions or buysqueeze frompositivefunding. Prior remainsweaktimingedge; changeit onlyafterpersistentmatchedcutoffflows plusactualpriceentry. Counterexample: stablecoinredemptionmaypayrealbills, whilemintingmayremainidle. Venuecollectsfeesfromturnoverregardlessofdirection; holderneeds netpriceedge. Issuer isclosest toitsliabilities butpromotesadoption; OKXclosesttoitsownfunding, notentiremarket. Sources https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 . No flow-conditioned rule traded.

Premises:1 Reverified Alpaca March2026 published inventory36USDpairs; all36 have dailybars, USDG only2/7calendar days and staleSep10. RankSep5–11sum(v*vw), not globalvolume: USDC10.368m,USDG1.900m,BTC677156,ETH459605,LTC254429,XRP199205,SOL192379,HYPE150543,LINK146046,UNI107781. Stablecoins retained in literal top10 but rejected directionalpriceupside; eightvolatilepairs candidate universe.2 All8 latestdailyclose below prior20dailyHIGH, although all aboveSMA50 and ETH2516.066 barely>prior20CLOSE2515.445. ETHHIGH2565.9 daily comparator differs from hourly2664.8535.3 Nasdaq directory13181 non-test listings screened by crypto/issuer names yielded181;180 have21SIPadjustedbars.19close>prior20sessionHIGH; ETHA19.16>19.135 and STRC98.64>98.2; bulkETHwrappers share onefactor, not independent signals. MSTR130.97<144.92,COIN175.26<195.85,CRCL90.6<103.28. Conclusion retainETHfrozenhourlywatch; noanticipatorycryptoentry, and noautomaticETF/preferred-stock order on an untestedcrypto-transferred rule. Name screen misses undisclosed treasury pivots;20stock sessions versus20calendarcryptodays not identical horizons. Full36rows observations25464–25499 and180stockrows saved separately. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqtraded.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support . Cash153.18 current constraint.

Fetched official Nasdaq Trader directories https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt excluding TestIssue Y:5597+7584=13181 unique securities, including ETFs/preferreds/warrants, not13181 companies. Download-all https://api.nasdaq.com/api/screener/stocks?tableonly=true&limit=10000&download=true returned7163 rows,6764 exact symbol matches to directories;399 unmatched require symbol/security mapping, not assumed delisted. Calendar https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/earnings?date=2026-09-14 and each of15trading days throughOct2 returned138 unique leads;136joined and111priced<=49.14. Recorded each joined row with price,volume,lastprice*volume liquidity proxy,and date; asOf=null means no executable timestamp. Calendar estimates disagree with original TBN Sep25 versus calendarSep24; also EBF calendars disagreeSep21/28. Never enter from estimate. Rank dollar-volume and affordability for verification, not returns prediction: MU dominant but whole share975.26>49.14; CAG14.60 and247.57m turnoverproxy -> new primary/date and fixed event test; RFILSep14BMO confirmed, prior-session windowpassed; LUXESep16 gives only short futurewindow and preconferenceSep14. TLX originalnewspage stillnoverifieddecision. FDA calendar HTML was a table shell so no claimcompleteFDAcensus. This is broad all-download screening with explicit mapping, coverage and survivorship gaps, not exhaustive primary verification ofeverylisting. No order from screen.

Facts: EEM IT42.99%,Taiwan27.90%,Korea21.69%,China19.58% asSep10 from https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf ; daily EEM/QQQ correlation.830609 from2783 market-bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new macro event or causal estimate asserted. Conditional adverse chain: 1 technology-demand disappointment reduces expected supplier earnings; 2 regional equities/currencies reprice, transmitting losses into USD-denominated EEM; 3 common risk liquidation can lower QQQ/IWM simultaneously and cause gaps through ATR stops. Conditional favorable chain: 1 persistent earnings/revenue expectations support stock demand; 2 positive relative returns retain the asset among top3 at rebalance; 3 trailing stop ratchets only after profit while fixed size limits concentration. These are assumptions, not a measured catalyst forecast. Who benefits: underlying successful firms/investors and fund sponsor fee revenue; price strength alone does not prove earnings quality. Binding constraint this run is executable share size, not willingness to take risk. At1EEM share a10% gap means6.784dollars/.797189% account equity; increasing EEM to occupy unaffordableQQQ/IWM slots would change concentration and the rule. Conclusion retain1share order and reserved slots; never force crypto substitution for equity implementation failure.

Primary sources accessedSep12: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf ; https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf . EEM tracks emerging-market large/midcap equities, QQQ Nasdaq100, IWM Russell2000. EEM issuer Sep10:1186holdings,IT42.99%,Taiwan27.90%,Korea21.69%,China19.58%,P/E19.93,P/B2.76,30day average volume16.634m,median spread.01%; expense.72% annual. Sep11 NAV67.95 differs from raw close67.84 by-.161884%,not a timestamp-aligned arbitrage. Premises: 1 index composition spreads company exposure; 2 IT and country weights create concentration; 3 measured momentum, not low valuation, is this fund's edge. Conclusion EEM is a liquid implementation of the selected foreign equity signal;1share negligible vs reportedvolume. Reject claims of broad equal geographic diversification or undervaluation from these numbers. Issuer is primary for holdings/fees but commercially interested; source dates differ. Annual expense .72% corresponds roughly .06-.18% over1-3months, approximately$.041-.122 per67.84 share, already reflected in fund performance over time rather than separately charged brokerage cost. No individual-US-listing screen/new overseas ticker trades because fixed nine-symbol mandate is binding.

Source historical SIP adjustment=all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; same frozen inputs2781. Numpy seed20260912,20000 paths of60 independently resampled daily returns from latest252 sessions. Start67.84,fixed stop65.93472,target75.111066; first daily close crossing absorbs at barrier; unresolved paths marked at day60. Stop-first56.865%,target-first38.82%,unresolved4.315%,mean gross return2.749172%,P5 -2.808491%,P95 +10.717963%. This simplified scenario ignores intraday crossings,gap overshoot,costs,serial dependence and mandated profit-ratchet, so it is optimistic about stop fills and is NOT live-policy exit odds, a backtest, independent evidence, or a Kelly estimate. Prior equity trend accepted; actual size remains fixed equal slot rounded to1share. Counterexample: a discontinuous overnight drop can lose more than the modeled stop; a correlated crash invalidates iid paths. Conclusion tail-payoff illustration only; do not tune target/size from these outputs.

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars SIP adjustment=all, June2021-Sep11 2026. Premises: selected signals2781 are accepted; correlation describes concentration, not a new selection gate. Last252 aligned daily-return correlations EEM/QQQ .830609,EEM/IWM .692751,QQQ/IWM .737515. Thus three regions/styles would not be three independent bets. EEM rolling60-session returns with endpoint in five-year window N1255: P10 -8.174912%,median2.401325%,P90 10.717963%,positive61.593625%. Windows overlap, positivity is not stopped-trade win rate. Chosen P90 yields7.271066 dollars from67.84; two ATR risk1.90528, ratio3.816272 before rounding/costs. Gap10% on1share would lose6.784 dollars or.797189% account equity, versus nominal stop.223890% equity. Conclusion keep fixed equal slots and hard caps; no discretionary leverage or extra correlated position. Trend has0completed trades, so empirical fund expectancy/slippage are unavailable.