Stats

Premises:1 statistical3154 finds pastP90exceedance unstable across periods;2 simulation3155conditions on historical regimes and fixeddailybarriers;3 technical3151stillselectsEEM/QQQ/IWM. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Prior sponsor observation27200 https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf reportsSep10IT42.99%/Taiwan+Korea49.59%; dated structural context, not freshly fetched or causal proof. Conditional economic chain: first earnings/FX/multiple repricing changes returns; second correlated flows alter volatility and trend; third gap execution realizes losses beyond nominal stop or terminates a winner before terminal target. Behavioral chain: favorable regime supplies high simulated success frequency, then falseKelly precision concentrates position, then a regime shift amplifies account losses. Beneficiaries of fees earn independently of our model success; user benefits from preserving fixed caps and exposure. Countercase genuine continuing trend can outperform the historicalP90; neither widens target nor adds discretionary macro veto. Current conclusion oneEEMshare, nominal1.91risk/7.27upside, retainformula75.11. Actual future regime/gaps unknown; no new fund proposal.

Premises:1 fixedSMA200 is eligibility;2 12month return sets rank among eligible;3 ATR sets risk distance, not a ranking modifier. Primary sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars SIPall and /data/crypto-bars, completedSep11/Sep12. Full measurements [{"symbol":"SPY","sma_distance_pct":7.337287014925442,"atr_pct":0.7134543170785934,"momentum_positive":true,"above_sma":true},{"symbol":"QQQ","sma_distance_pct":8.437307785361249,"atr_pct":1.1006637477618617,"momentum_positive":true,"above_sma":true},{"symbol":"IWM","sma_distance_pct":5.756535927075612,"atr_pct":1.0628699505001888,"momentum_positive":true,"above_sma":true},{"symbol":"EFA","sma_distance_pct":5.986340973057924,"atr_pct":0.8255576382380494,"momentum_positive":true,"above_sma":true},{"symbol":"EEM","sma_distance_pct":9.843937089087106,"atr_pct":1.404245283018866,"momentum_positive":true,"above_sma":true},{"symbol":"GLD","sma_distance_pct":-4.1267314925787835,"atr_pct":1.994243548912908,"momentum_positive":true,"above_sma":false},{"symbol":"TLT","sma_distance_pct":-4.2964242815131115,"atr_pct":0.8546123407938669,"momentum_positive":false,"above_sma":false},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","sma_distance_pct":10.23084699121144,"atr_pct":3.0220543933656248,"momentum_positive":false,"above_sma":true},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","sma_distance_pct":22.823428682319435,"atr_pct":3.738691610769314,"momentum_positive":false,"above_sma":true}]. Seven of nine aboveSMA, five both aboveSMA/positive12m; GLD +18.9435%12m but4.1267%belowSMA; BTC/ETH aboveSMA10.2308/22.8234% but12m -33.4506/-46.4335%,eligible ranks6/7. No addedpositive-return gate: they would qualify if top3 under mandate. EEM aboveSMA9.84394%,ATR1.40425%ofprice; QQQ/IWM ATR1.10066/1.06287%. Counterexample to buying greatestSMAextension is ETH: short-term recovery does not erase weak12m rank. PreserveEEM/QQQ/IWM; no substitution for whole-share affordability.

Premises:1 current67.84 reference,65.93stop,75.11target;2 empirical log-return blocks preserve some serial dependence;3 historical innovation regime is an assumption, not estimated live probability. Numpyseed2026091306,10000paths/cell,60sessions,L5/20/60 circular blocks; regimesSep13 2021-Dec31 2024 N831 andJan1 2025-Sep11 2026 N424; total60000paths. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Full results {"pre2025_L5":{"innovation_n":831,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":71.57,"target_first_pct":13.930000000000001,"neither_pct":14.499999999999998,"mean_pnl_usd":-0.3334778364307266,"p05_pnl_usd":-3.1505754030937236,"p50_pnl_usd":-2.176280199004985,"p95_pnl_usd":7.734389077169582,"loss_over_nominal_pct":71.6,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":-0.45536283737850775},"pre2025_L20":{"innovation_n":831,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":72.41,"target_first_pct":13.100000000000001,"neither_pct":14.49,"mean_pnl_usd":-0.4362787387692226,"p05_pnl_usd":-3.1674449213792863,"p50_pnl_usd":-2.172270643083884,"p95_pnl_usd":7.737399344683572,"loss_over_nominal_pct":72.42,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":-0.5580711633590841},"pre2025_L60":{"innovation_n":831,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":73.38,"target_first_pct":9.43,"neither_pct":17.19,"mean_pnl_usd":-0.6043140408723501,"p05_pnl_usd":-3.180292599207406,"p50_pnl_usd":-2.1971267595603163,"p95_pnl_usd":7.544410737240073,"loss_over_nominal_pct":73.38,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":-0.7259551428967795},"2025plus_L5":{"innovation_n":424,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":48.78,"target_first_pct":41.61,"neither_pct":9.610000000000001,"mean_pnl_usd":2.1731685450419214,"p05_pnl_usd":-4.369000587767832,"p50_pnl_usd":0.4418869883009054,"p95_pnl_usd":8.568010473012096,"loss_over_nominal_pct":48.79,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":2.0490262079491273},"2025plus_L20":{"innovation_n":424,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":47.010000000000005,"target_first_pct":39.629999999999995,"neither_pct":13.36,"mean_pnl_usd":2.258367547004803,"p05_pnl_usd":-4.153691180703697,"p50_pnl_usd":2.2974025849742272,"p95_pnl_usd":8.360387114742439,"loss_over_nominal_pct":47.03,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":2.1341484847751615},"2025plus_L60":{"innovation_n":424,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":48.1,"target_first_pct":35.76,"neither_pct":16.14,"mean_pnl_usd":2.075015918494981,"p05_pnl_usd":-4.344827129313141,"p50_pnl_usd":2.2100709749857312,"p95_pnl_usd":8.094501131230189,"loss_over_nominal_pct":48.1,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":1.9509619718003188}}. Each path exits at first daily close beyond fixed barriers or60thclose, pays assumed6bp/side total friction, stress15bp/side. Close overshoots kept; target overshoots may overstate actual limit execution. NO intraday high/low, no profit ratchet, no monthly selection, no raw dividend gaps: deliberately a fixed-barrier sensitivity model, NOT actual mandate policy backtest or live exit odds. Historical older regime has13.10%target-first/L20 versus39.63%recent; corresponding means-$0.4363/+$2.2584 per share andP5 -$3.1674/-$4.1537. Both P5losses exceed nominal1.91. Counterargument future regime differs from both and no resampling generates unprecedented shock; sparse observations are not60000independent market episodes. Keep one-share fixed size; noKelly from scenario frequencies.

Premises:1 freeze P90 from rolling60session gains endingSep13 2021-Dec31 2024;2 evaluate only gains whose starting observation isJan1 2025 or later, removing60cross-boundary endpoints;3 this is retrospective chronological holdout, already-known history, not prospectively unseen validation and not a strategy backtest. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Frozen threshold7.302853636% from831 overlapping windows, training exceedance9.987966306%. Holdout364windows throughSep11 2026 exceeds threshold54.120879121%, ownP9015.986842505%,lag1corr.936329809. Nonoverlapping60offset exceedance ranges33.3333–66.6667%, each6–7samples; offsets overlap one another. These quantify regime instability, not independently sampled Bernoulli trials. Current mandated fiveyearP9010.717963% remains unchanged. Counterexample to stationary10%exceedance is this holdout; does not refute momentum or authorize new target. Collection misses intraday path and changing historical composition; causality unknown.

Re-read query_trades fund=crypto at06:02UTC. Only trade10: BTC entry81614.8 exit81548.7 qty.001681857, opened2026-09-03T19:42:24.677Z closed20:30:20.345Z by operator liquidation. Price return−.0809902%, price PnL−.111171USD, wins0/1; stop73440,target97900 were not triggered. No contemporaneous entry reference quote or itemized fees, so slippage unavailable. Premises: externally censored N1 is not a strategy payoff sample; old breakout/media reason does not validate today's delayed-entry control. Conclusion no empirical live Kelly from this record. Current no own open/pending positions. Source query_trades fund=crypto and supplied Sep13 venue account context.

Premises:1 signals3148 unchanged, own ledger empty and supplied CoreEEMqueue excluded;2 session closed and mandate requiresRTH fractional notionalmarket;3 current cap289.34 and scenario checks3149 support conditional104.34/93.50/91.50, but IWM/EFA headroom only.117906/.082384USD;4 no new momentum information from repeated weekend bars. Conclusion preserveMonday353 andTuesday327, resolve354 and arm08UTC359. Noorders/closes/exitmoves; cash is session-bound, not discretionary rejection of long rule. AtMonday13:50UTC refresh state/Core exclusions/completedbars/actualentry/equity before each order and recompute strict risk ceilings. Target percentagesQQQ16.169585/IWM12.823845/EFA9.630283, reference stop699.14315/282.74895/104.93826 target830.473132/325.936805/116.975512;1–3months, actualentry formulas govern. Gross targetgain37.673349 vsnormalstoploss5.795202, not expectedprofit. Joint scenario75.793656=8.906527%equity, not bound; equityfloorEFA848.243871 andcostheadroom9.0037bp show why fixednotionals cannot be copied blindly. Counterexamples larger gaps, longerhalts, jointinputshifts; oneprovider adjustedreturn proxy without independent reinvestment reconstruction. No strategybacktest or repeatedMonteCarlo under explicit validatedmandate and prior3114 limitation; new108cell deterministic sensitivity is not probability model or OOS strategy test. No freshfundamental valuation claim, no macro veto orFUNDproposal. No scheduledjob needed before08UTC whileflat, no newlycompletedday; existingMondayreminder covers execution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises:1 fresh venue daily bars SIP adjustment=all proxy total return;2 last completed stockSep11/cryptoSep12;3 rank above-SMA assets by252/365-interval return. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Table JSON includes return%, SMA200, ATR20, eligible rank and chosen qty plus formula targets: [{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0452,"atr":5.452859999999982,"above":true,"p90":10.842338318374644,"target_n":1255,"stop":753.38428,"target":847.1569075335055,"ratchet":767.89428,"rank":5,"qty":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"above":true,"p90":16.16958533244174,"target_n":1255,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"ratchet":718.84315,"rank":2,"qty":0},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"above":true,"p90":12.823844643545982,"target_n":1255,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"ratchet":299.03895,"rank":3,"qty":0},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"above":true,"p90":9.630282889112697,"target_n":1255,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"ratchet":107.12826,"rank":4,"qty":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"above":true,"p90":10.717963493264469,"target_n":1255,"stop":65.93472,"target":75.11106643383062,"ratchet":67.21972,"rank":1,"qty":1},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93450000000007,"atr":7.952445000000003,"above":false,"p90":16.781703911009302,"target_n":1255,"stop":382.86510999999996,"target":465.69040068593176,"ratchet":415.93450000000007,"rank":null,"qty":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"above":false,"p90":6.150557763249668,"target_n":1255,"stop":79.48775,"target":85.84395606314001,"ratchet":84.50049999999999,"rank":null,"qty":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","n":2081,"close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"above":true,"p90":37.16910440529673,"target_n":1826,"stop":72596.3206350254,"target":105985.60831084852,"ratchet":77563.43817309641,"rank":6,"qty":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","n":2081,"close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"above":true,"p90":42.934306094152,"target_n":1826,"stop":2336.2377088337,"target":3609.155549315081,"ratchet":2476.0462088337,"rank":7,"qty":0}]. EEM1share pending, all filled sizes0. Fund170.20 slot56.733333; nearest whole share EEM67.84. QQQ714.88 and IWM288.89 exceed212.7475positioncap; no lower-ranked substitutes. ExistingEEM stop65.93 target75.11 reflects rounding formula65.93472/75.111066, P9010.717963%. Ratchet67.21972 is reference only until actual fill and profit; never lower existing stop. No monthly/stop rerank trigger; computation verifies initialized selection, not churn. GLD positive momentum but belowSMA; crypto aboveSMA but weak12m rank. No new gate from data quirks.

Premises:1 current all-account equity850.99, conditional fund289.34;2 EFA scenario25.447316 versus allowance25.5297;3 scenario fractions scale inversely with equity at fixed notional. First order costs or other-book losses reduce equity. Second order unchanged EFA91.50 reaches3% at848.243871 (a2.746129 equity fall), even with identical ETF signals. Third order a stale copied allocation breaches its modeled budget; recompute at deployment and redistribute within current cap. Venue cash and account25% caps remain additional constraints. Who benefits from immediate executable liquidity: holders avoid delayed exposure; actual fractional fills are unknown. Joint envelope75.793656=8.906527% equity remains, no claim of account3% combined cap or guaranteed loss bound. No fresh issuer cash-flow claim or fundamental veto; prior marketstructure3116 retained. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and user-supplied venue account context.

Premises:1 refreshedsignals3148;2 frozen conservative g QQQ.1083658430862592/IWM.1254295532646048/EFA.13045475424896646 from3115;3 loss N*[2ATR/E+(1-2ATR/E)*2g+.005] strictly below.03*equity. Algebraic equality thresholds and reference exits [{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"RR":6.032649919922496,"stress":25.411794034436106,"buffer":0.11790596556389232,"min_equity":847.0598011478702,"entry_floor":267.6924050716828,"entry_drop_pct":7.3376007921067465,"atr_ceiling":3.3136687871755846,"atr_increase_pct":7.91863890297555,"extra_cost_bp":12.610263696672952,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493},{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"RR":7.3453792610693736,"stress":24.93454579612259,"buffer":0.59515420387741,"min_equity":831.1515265374196,"entry_floor":537.1751223695812,"entry_drop_pct":24.85800101141713,"atr_ceiling":10.471407609472207,"atr_increase_pct":33.08136773842556,"extra_cost_bp":57.03988919660813,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"RR":5.832592688298649,"stress":25.447316122674685,"buffer":0.08238387732531294,"min_equity":848.2438707558229,"entry_floor":99.36846827080154,"entry_drop_pct":6.8711637574493505,"atr_ceiling":0.9458617067927328,"atr_increase_pct":7.378126941856822,"extra_cost_bp":9.003702439924766,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117}]. IWM/EFA cost headroom only12.6103/9.0037bp above assumed50bp, equity floors847.0598/848.2439. These are one-at-a-time sensitivities, not limits robust to joint changes. 108 deterministic entry/ATR/equity scenarios include71 breaches; not odds. Preserve353 amounts as conditional only: recompute each trade after actual state and costs, redistribute roughlyequally within fresh fund/position/risk caps. Round notionals down to cents below calculated ceiling, never equate rounded loss with strictly-under pass. Stop actualE-2ATR, target actualE*(1+P90), horizon1–3months, profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR). P90 magnitudes16.169585/12.823845/9.630283%, not hit probabilities. Counterexample joint larger gap or halt invalidates scenario. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Premises:1 fresh paginated provider bars, 1682 per ETF and2081 percrypto, duplicates and OHLC checks pass;2 completed Sep11 ETFs/Sep12 crypto only;3 own query_trades empty, Core EEM queued per current supplied context. Compute252/365 interval adjusted return proxy, SMA200, arithmeticATR20, fiveyear rolling60bar P90. Table [{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"size":93.5,"rank":3},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"size":104.34,"rank":2},{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"size":0,"rank":5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"size":0,"rank":1},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"size":91.5,"rank":4},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"size":0,"rank":null},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"size":0,"rank":null},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"size":0,"rank":6},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"size":0,"rank":7}]. Conclusion QQQ/IWM/EFA complement, no new positive-return filter, no lowercrypto substitute. Proposed sizes conditional on entry/equity stress check, regular-session market notional only. GLD/TLT below SMA; EEM excluded. No edge rebacktest per fixed mandate. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Start state: account equity $850.99; crypto allocation and cash $119.14; no own positions or queued orders. Goal: positive executable expectancy with an asymmetric payoff. Binding constraint: a fresh entry under a validated policy, not available cash. 1. The deep dive tested whether stablecoin growth provides leading information beyond price momentum. Circle/CCTP mechanics show that issuance, payments, collateral and chain migration are distinct; same-date September10 issuer/aggregator USDC totals differ by $485.696m, so historical definitions and publication vintages remain material. 2. Eighteen OLS/HAC specifications at one- and seven-day horizons have supply confidence intervals crossing zero. This does not establish causality or prove no effect. The prior is only weakly updated toward using supply as context. 3. The frozen two-day USDC30-day-growth filter plus SMA200 produced 2026 costed BTC/ETH/SOL returns −2.1408%/+3.6668%/+5.4333%, below identical price-only controls +10.6800%/+11.3014%/+18.3668%. ETH training +75.032% versus control +37.141% is the strongest counterargument, but it did not persist. Lag sensitivity and only two holdout trades prevent a reliable payoff estimate. Reject this incremental filter; do not select a favorable lag after seeing results. All168 daily/hourly cells recorded; hourly daily-state execution is not independent replication. Managed exits were not tested in this new diagnostic, so it does not authorize a trade. 4. Current completed03UTC bars still fail HIGH480 for all seven volatile top-ten names. ETH's prior pullback was available September11 22UTC and has no new arm. A new strategy that happens to be long cannot justify buying that old entry. 5. Half-Kelly training plug-ins are unstable (ETH USDC3.9947 before caps); holdouts without both wins and losses have undefined Kelly, not infinite confidence. Actual size0. Quarter-fund ceiling$29.785 is a ceiling, not a prescribed order. Hypothetical2ATR stop losses$1.97–3.35 and full-exitnet3R target gains20.52–34.56% are illustrations, not adopted exits; correlated20-day path risk can dominate quiet two-hour observations. Conclusion: no orders; retain$119.14cash. Accept missed-upside risk rather than weaken the entry policy to address the $349.01 monthly shortfall. This is not a bearish market forecast. A fresh tested entry with defensible managed net payoff and current venue caps can change the decision. Maintenance: replaced247/249 with253/255 and exhausted248 with254; all first remote END receipts verified around04:16UTC, embedded cutoffs06:30UTC. Preserve daily14/25 and Arc104/307, FOMC330, GME152, Sepolia35. No separate fund proposal. Sources https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://developers.circle.com/cctp ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

query_trades fund=crypto returns one closed BTC lot: entry81614.80, exit81548.70, quantity.001681857, openedSep3 19:42:24.677UTC, closed20:30:20.345UTC by operator liquidation. Raw price return−.0809902%, price-PnL−.111171USD, observed0/1wins; neither stop nor target determined exit. No entry quote/reference price or separate fee ledger supports a slippage estimate. Its old price-breakout thesis was not tonight's supply rule. Premises: one externally terminated trade is not a strategy distribution; do not estimate win/loss odds or half-Kelly from this lot. Current own book has no open or pending crypto orders; EEM belongs to trend and is outside this review. Source query_trades fund=crypto; user venue context asSep13 04:01UTC. Conclusion use recorded research controls, not0/1pseudo-confidence; actualallocation0.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy sma-cross --fast 1 --slow 200 --days 981. Grossreturn/DD/win/closedN:BTC14.4761/31.2332/15.3846/13;ETH10.7680/37.8551/11.1111/9;SOL8.3228/32.9545/0/3. Sourceengine same-closeexecution, nofees/holdout;982barsBTCETH/749SOLincludingpartialSep13bar, openmark-to-marketexplainspositiveSOLtotalwith0closedwins. Cannotimplementstablecoinsignal; suppliesonlymandatoryCLIcontrol. Costed daily/hourly168cells andholdoutsrecordedseparately. Noorder,nochoicefromgrossoutput. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Companion to3130, same lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth and prior7day price momentum, next1daylogreturn as outcome, OLSHAC7. Purge final1trainingday:2024Jan1–2025Dec30; knownholdoutJan1–Sep11 outcomes throughSep12. BTC/ETHtrainN730,SOL485;holdoutN254. Trainingbetas-.001839/+.016259/-.104505 withp .968210/.780891/.114559. Holdoutbetas .088794/.122204/.136675,p .365205/.456096/.302054 and95%CIs[-.103403,.280991]/[-.199167,.443575]/[-.122887,.396236]. Allcrosszero; noone-dayleadingeffect established. This fulfills originallyspecified1/7dayresolution, notanewchosenwinninghorizon. Revision/availabilityuncertainty, omittedcommonmacrodrivers andsmallregimes limitinference; nocausalclaimororder. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Sep12completedcloses BTC77266.385 ETH2525.045 SOL101.7655 exceedSMA20070095.0660/2055.8333/83.04133. ATR202335.03218/94.40365/5.45756. Nonetheless Sep13completed03UTC HIGH480fails BTC77184.35<82233.50254, ETH2520.3465<2664.8535, SOL101.575<110.5357; samecollectorall7false, ETHlastpullbackavailableSep11 22UTC,no newarm. Positive200daytrend does notretroactively createfreshHIGH/pullback. Illustrationonly: entrySep12close*1.001,stopE-2ATR,full-exitnet3R with25bpentrycoin/exitUSDfee+10bpsellslip requiresgains20.5241/24.8197/34.5551%; targets93217.7762/3154.9047/137.06755.235unconditional2026rolling20dayMFE P9018.1013/23.8079/23.1779%; coverage8.5106/8.5106/7.2340%,notstop-adjustedodds. These full-exit targets are NOT the mandated +2Rquarter/trailingpolicy; its finaltarget bridge mustbe solvedseparately. Illustrativequarter29.785netstoploss1.9660/2.3900/3.3507USD;noactuallevelsadopted. Low unconditionalcoverage isnotautomaticvetoonfat-tailtrades, butitdoesnotvalidate anentry. Bindingconstrainttodayfreshpolicyentry,andnewstablecoinfilterfailedincrementalholdout;actualsize0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

1. The leastpredictablequestionwaswhetherTEN'sfreightprofitsreachcommonholdersafterrenewal. Primaryannual/results/slidesandparticipanttranscriptshowcashcaptureandprofitshare, butfinancingdominatescashincrease andshipyard/preferredclaimsabsorbcapital. Fundamental3127 bridge commonbook~56.998makes55.361referenceplausible;10%fleethaircutbook46.524removesdiscount. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html . 2. Sourceexpansionchangedtheanswer: issuerage-drivenretirementrequires963ships/yearagainst66annualizedscrapping,14.6xstep-up;independentbrokerrecordordersunderminedpersistent-scarcityassumption. https://www.tenn.gr/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/TEN_Q2_2026.pdf ; https://ifchorgalbraiths.com/research-insight/focus-on-tanker-fleet-august-2026/ . Sameissuerrepeatsnotcorroboration; brokerdatabaseindependenceunknown. 3. Rawfixedfractionalexitbacktest3133retains+60.3773%knownholdoutN10/stress57.2016%,buttraining-7.5497%N29/DD70.1081%. Managed71.5824%isnotactualrun-cadencereplication;11held-outmissingsamplesremain. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. ConditionalhalfKelly/gapquarter21.27475=.444149sharecannotbequeuedwhole;RTHclosed;stressmedian-.4951%with61.555%lossoddsunderexplicit5%/30%gapassumption. Cashisdeliberateforunresolvedexecutablepayoff, notprooftherearenoopportunitieselsewhere. Decision noorders/exitmoves,170.20cash. Strongbullpositivecash+holdoutwarrantsnextboundedmanager-timeaudit; counterexample10%fleetmarkdownandnegativepathtrainingpreventsfullsize. Premisesvalidconditionaldeduction; soundnesslimitedbycurrentcapex/NCIsharevintage,price-samplingandregime. No newfund proposed: allworkfitssupply. Lessons894–896recorded;348resolvedand35706UTCarmed; existing5collectorspreservedafterreceiptsreview,36partialerrorsremain. One deepdiveconvergedafterfullQ&Aandbrokerchallenge; outstandingexactquotes/fundingnotpubliclyreconciledinthisrun. About13minutesusedof43allowed,finishingblockreserved5; noallowanceoverrun.

NumPyseed91304 resamples10000 contiguous20-day joint BTC/ETH/SOL daily close-return paths from235 overlapping2026 windows, equal initial weights buy-and-hold, preserving within-block correlations. TerminalP1-32.9802%,P5-28.9933%,P95+28.2082%; first-percentile worst path value-40.2133%=>-$47.9102 on119.14fullfund or-$11.9775 on29.785quarterfund. Daily-return correlations BTCETH.911160, BTCSOL.878579, ETHSOL.879436. Premises: risk compounds across the intended horizon; three majors are strongly correlated. Counterexample: unobserved gap or exchange failure can be worse. These are historical-resampling scenarios, not forecast odds, no entry conditioning/fees/stops/rebalancing; draws from235windows are not10000independent historical events. A25%jointcrash costs29.785USDfullfund=3.5%account versus7.44625USDquarter=.875%account. Actualexposure0. Need current executable entry and policy-specific stops before using size; do not extrapolate earlier quiet2hourweekend distribution over20days. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Sep11completedSIPclose47.90,prior20close44.71,SMA50 40.3494,ADR20 1.243575: frozenL20ANDtrendtrue. 2ADRreference45.41285stop and6ADR55.36145target; at47.90gain15.5771%versusrisk5.19238%,gross3R. UnderrawRTHfixedexittestlastpaperJuly24entry39.61 reachesSep11target; firstnextentrywouldbeMondayopenifpriorcloseruletrue, notweekend. Actualfractionalmarketonlyregularsession; cannotqueuewhole-share21.27probe. Dataset1682daily/47537raw15min,43084calendarRTH; 2020reverse-splitfactor5explicitlynormalized. +2Rpaperquarter/BEcanoccurduringoff-runwindow,so notmatchedmanagerpolicy; fixedautomaticstop/targetbaselinepreserved andmanagedvariantinconclusive. Missingbarsaremissingtradesamples,notproofofuntradeability. No rulechangedtoL10evenwithpositivetraining41.10%, becauseL20frozen; L40train-36.02%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No holdings means no liveR/daysheldreviewor exitadjustment.

Managedpapertraining29: winp12/29=.413793,avgwin14.8067%,avgloss9.31325%,b1.58985=>halfKellyrisk.02253746. This is roughsizingreference, notapprovedprobability becausepolicycadencemismatch. Stop2ADR/47.9=5.19238% permitslargernotionalbutassumed30%gap cappedto3%account850.99=>full85.099USD,quarter21.27475USD=.444149share. Whole47.90wouldroundriskup; onlyfractionalRTHcanexpressquarter. 20,000 seeded20tradepaths at2.5%accountallocation usingtrainingreturns:baseP05/P50/P95=-2.05483/+.25728/+3.02878%,loss43.335%,DD95 2.57789%. Assumedindependent5%chancepertradeof-30%gap yields-3.05614/-.49512/+2.40193%,loss61.555%,DD95 3.51279%. Gapassumptionisnotwarfrequency, norhardlimit; totalstocklosscanexceedstop. Futurepathsnotcalibratedto1–3monthcalendar. Reference45.41285stop/55.36145target gross3R, valuebridgebook~56.998 butcostsreducenetRRandmustberecomputedatexecutableentry. Currentzero; cashdecisiondoesnotrequirecertaintybutactualpolicyandleft-tailfitremainunresolved. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fund170.20cash/account850.99; do notallocateusingfundingshortfall.

Frozen baseline: lag2 calendar-day USDC30-day supply growth>0 AND previous completed daily close>SMA200. Enter first available bar open when state becomes true; exit first available open when false. Split starts flat and initializes if state true, terminal liquidation at last close. Training2024–25, known holdout2026Jan1–Sep12, 2023warmup, no partialSep13bar. Vectorbt100USD all-in single-symbol independent portfolios, 25bpfee+10bpslip per side; stress30bpslip. Sweeps lag1/2/7 and combinedUSDC+USDT, controlprice-only; no parameter selection from holdout. Baseline training return-11.006206%, DD34.649737%, win0.000%, N3; holdout return5.433297%, DD10.758956%, win100.000%, N2. Price-only holdout18.366768% N1. Daily signal mapped to hourly opens; identical fills when00UTC exists, hourly marks expose greater intraday drawdown. This is not independent replication or an hourly supply series. Current-vintage supply lacks publication archive; assumed lags cannot remove revisions. Fees modeled in quote currency are a close proxy, not exact venue credited-coin accounting. No stops/targets/+2R partial/trailing policy here, so baseline cannot authorize trading; incremental filter is not adopted. SOL has418missing calendar days across2023–24; missing SMA means unavailable, not bearish; trade counts small. Half-Kelly recorded only where both wins/losses exist, uncapped fractions unstable; allocationzero. All28 cells recorded separately in observations. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

Frozen baseline: lag2 calendar-day USDC30-day supply growth>0 AND previous completed daily close>SMA200. Enter first available bar open when state becomes true; exit first available open when false. Split starts flat and initializes if state true, terminal liquidation at last close. Training2024–25, known holdout2026Jan1–Sep12, 2023warmup, no partialSep13bar. Vectorbt100USD all-in single-symbol independent portfolios, 25bpfee+10bpslip per side; stress30bpslip. Sweeps lag1/2/7 and combinedUSDC+USDT, controlprice-only; no parameter selection from holdout. Baseline training return-11.006206%, DD33.249904%, win0.000%, N3; holdout return5.433297%, DD9.663307%, win100.000%, N2. Price-only holdout18.366768% N1. Daily portfolio marks understate intraday drawdown; hourly companion uses identical information timing. Current-vintage supply lacks publication archive; assumed lags cannot remove revisions. Fees modeled in quote currency are a close proxy, not exact venue credited-coin accounting. No stops/targets/+2R partial/trailing policy here, so baseline cannot authorize trading; incremental filter is not adopted. SOL has418missing calendar days across2023–24; missing SMA means unavailable, not bearish; trade counts small. Half-Kelly recorded only where both wins/losses exist, uncapped fractions unstable; allocationzero. All28 cells recorded separately in observations. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

Frozen baseline: lag2 calendar-day USDC30-day supply growth>0 AND previous completed daily close>SMA200. Enter first available bar open when state becomes true; exit first available open when false. Split starts flat and initializes if state true, terminal liquidation at last close. Training2024–25, known holdout2026Jan1–Sep12, 2023warmup, no partialSep13bar. Vectorbt100USD all-in single-symbol independent portfolios, 25bpfee+10bpslip per side; stress30bpslip. Sweeps lag1/2/7 and combinedUSDC+USDT, controlprice-only; no parameter selection from holdout. Baseline training return75.031958%, DD35.057611%, win33.333%, N9; holdout return3.666842%, DD6.462538%, win100.000%, N2. Price-only holdout11.301377% N1. Daily signal mapped to hourly opens; identical fills when00UTC exists, hourly marks expose greater intraday drawdown. This is not independent replication or an hourly supply series. Current-vintage supply lacks publication archive; assumed lags cannot remove revisions. Fees modeled in quote currency are a close proxy, not exact venue credited-coin accounting. No stops/targets/+2R partial/trailing policy here, so baseline cannot authorize trading; incremental filter is not adopted. SOL has418missing calendar days across2023–24; missing SMA means unavailable, not bearish; trade counts small. Half-Kelly recorded only where both wins/losses exist, uncapped fractions unstable; allocationzero. All28 cells recorded separately in observations. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

Managedrawpapertrain29mean+.66741%/trade,IID20kbootstrap95%[-4.02761,5.78851]%;circular3tradeblock10kCI[-3.52885,5.13261]%. Knownholdout10mean6.01385%,IID[-.19308,11.98345]%,block[1.15657,10.98076]%; blockCIpositivewithonly10tradesdoesnotoutweighsample/modelselection. TrainP05/P50/P95=-13.0172/-6.7140/+28.1638%;holdout-8.0535/+8.4027/+18.1984%. Historicalsample iscurrentTENidentityselectedafterseeingstrongrecentperformance; regimesnotIIDandmissingsampledquotesremain. OwntradehistoryFRO/STNGN2bothprofitbutoperator-liquidatedSep4,notstrategyexits; no source contemporaneousquote means no measuredorderslippage. Do not convert100%observedwinrateintoKelly. Models andtradeobservations https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . Evidence needed: exact manager-time/rawquote implementation andprospectiveoutcome, not furtherlookbackselection.

Frozen baseline: lag2 calendar-day USDC30-day supply growth>0 AND previous completed daily close>SMA200. Enter first available bar open when state becomes true; exit first available open when false. Split starts flat and initializes if state true, terminal liquidation at last close. Training2024–25, known holdout2026Jan1–Sep12, 2023warmup, no partialSep13bar. Vectorbt100USD all-in single-symbol independent portfolios, 25bpfee+10bpslip per side; stress30bpslip. Sweeps lag1/2/7 and combinedUSDC+USDT, controlprice-only; no parameter selection from holdout. Baseline training return75.031958%, DD33.073196%, win33.333%, N9; holdout return3.666842%, DD4.774546%, win100.000%, N2. Price-only holdout11.301377% N1. Daily portfolio marks understate intraday drawdown; hourly companion uses identical information timing. Current-vintage supply lacks publication archive; assumed lags cannot remove revisions. Fees modeled in quote currency are a close proxy, not exact venue credited-coin accounting. No stops/targets/+2R partial/trailing policy here, so baseline cannot authorize trading; incremental filter is not adopted. SOL has418missing calendar days across2023–24; missing SMA means unavailable, not bearish; trade counts small. Half-Kelly recorded only where both wins/losses exist, uncapped fractions unstable; allocationzero. All28 cells recorded separately in observations. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

Frozen L20close>prior20closes ANDSMA50, next09:30open,2ADRstop/6ADRtarget/40sessions; new full SIP1682daily and47537raw15min,43084RTH afterXNYS calendar/halfday filtering. Signal usesalladjustedbars; execution split-only withraw15min normalized bydaily split/raw ratio (1or5). NOdividendcash credited: avoids treating adjustedreturns asfundcash. Calendar packageexchange_calendarsinstalledlocally; initialhalfday overcountcorrected. Vectorbtlongonly cost1bpfee+5bpslip/side,15bpstress,returnassertion matchescompoundedfixedpaths. Primary sampled fixedexit: train2020–24 -7.54972%,dailyMTMapproxDD70.1081%,9/29wins31.0345%;knownholdout2025–Sep11+60.37727%,DD14.75847%,6/10wins60%,stress57.20159%. Managedpaper (+2R25%sell/BE each15min) train-5.58616%,DD64.30199%,12/29wins41.379%;holdout71.58243%,DD14.75847%,7/10wins70%,stress68.18486%. This managedpolicy is NOT executable at every sample: actual manager runs lessoften, venueautomatesstops/targetsbutnotquartertakeprofit. Need exactscheduled-management audit or usefixedautomaticexit asbaseline. Pricebaropens approximate15mincheckquotes;107train/11holdoutmissingchecks,14/3trades affected, not filledwithzeros; absent09:30entry skipped, observations may omitnontradingquotes. Fixedpathdailyraw counterpart-7.2430%N33/+59.0868%N11; differs frompreviousadjusted+1.30/+78.94becausecashadjustment/exitpath/sample, not correction ofoldvintage. L10/L40 sensitivitiesrecorded,no selection. CLI breakoutlookback20,1825days,5%stop15%target:1250bars+60.32194%,DD18.2795%,win36.8421%,differentIEXrule,noholdout,diagnostic only. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Conclusion positive2025regime but rawtrainingnegative/largeDD andmissingexecutionobservations meanwatch, notvalidateddeployment. DailyMTMapprox drawdown excludesintradayextremes andsmallpartialfeeaccrual; do notmislabelas worstloss.