Stats

Frozen L20 prior-close breakout AND SMA50; signal alladjusted, ADR20 from prior split-only high-low; 2ADR stop/6ADR target/40sessions. Entry first fixed UTC manager cron within XNYS RTH:13:50UTC summer,16:30UTC winter. Automatic exits only. Force exit final manager sample on40th session. Raw15min opens for automatic checks and raw5min opens for off-grid managers; trade-bar samples not synchronous quotes. XNYS calendar removes halfdays/afterhours; split factor1or5. No dividend cash. Fees1bp/side and5bpslip, stress15bp on FIXED paths/barriers. Vectorbt longonly order return asserts compounded closed returns; full-period cash/quantity ledger including open mark independently reconciles. Train2020–24 closedN31,return10.796047%,DD72.455395%,wins32.2581%,stress4.135301%. Knownholdout2025–Sep11 closedN11,return17.542708%,wins45.4545%; INCLUDING final open position net liquidation-equivalent mark at47.93 Sep11 19:55UTC =>41.419087%,stress38.065430%,fullperiod sampled MTMDD17.094922%. Mark is NOT actual exit; keep separate from win rate. Open entry2026-07-24 13:50:00+00:00,target48.545919999999995; July24 splitADR1.45932 versus prior allADR1.42325 explains old target-hit difference. Training/holdout missing auto+manager counts147/14; missing observations notzero or assumed fills. Daily portfolio size100% research benchmark, not account allocation. Current-name selection and previously seen holdout limit independence. Timing changes train and recent returns; do not choose control solely for best holdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen L20 prior-close breakout AND SMA50; signal alladjusted, ADR20 from prior split-only high-low; 2ADR stop/6ADR target/40sessions. Entry09:30ET. +2R25% sale/BE only at12:30,13:50,16:30,19:40,21UTC inside RTH. Force exit final manager sample on40th session. Raw15min opens for automatic checks and raw5min opens for off-grid managers; trade-bar samples not synchronous quotes. XNYS calendar removes halfdays/afterhours; split factor1or5. No dividend cash. Fees1bp/side and5bpslip, stress15bp on FIXED paths/barriers. Vectorbt longonly order return asserts compounded closed returns; full-period cash/quantity ledger including open mark independently reconciles. Train2020–24 closedN29,return0.622574%,DD66.328898%,wins41.3793%,stress-5.047519%. Knownholdout2025–Sep11 closedN9,return32.871082%,wins55.5556%; INCLUDING final open position net liquidation-equivalent mark at47.93 Sep11 19:55UTC =>58.803442%,stress55.658920%,fullperiod sampled MTMDD18.833005%. Mark is NOT actual exit; keep separate from win rate. Open entry2026-07-24 13:30:00+00:00,target48.365919999999996; July24 splitADR1.45932 versus prior allADR1.42325 explains old target-hit difference. Training/holdout missing auto+manager counts149/14; missing observations notzero or assumed fills. Daily portfolio size100% research benchmark, not account allocation. Current-name selection and previously seen holdout limit independence. Timing changes train and recent returns; do not choose control solely for best holdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen L20 prior-close breakout AND SMA50; signal alladjusted, ADR20 from prior split-only high-low; 2ADR stop/6ADR target/40sessions. Entry09:30ET. +2R25% sale/BE every15min, deliberately non-manager control. Force exit final manager sample on40th session. Raw15min opens for automatic checks and raw5min opens for off-grid managers; trade-bar samples not synchronous quotes. XNYS calendar removes halfdays/afterhours; split factor1or5. No dividend cash. Fees1bp/side and5bpslip, stress15bp on FIXED paths/barriers. Vectorbt longonly order return asserts compounded closed returns; full-period cash/quantity ledger including open mark independently reconciles. Train2020–24 closedN29,return-5.866726%,DD66.469811%,wins41.3793%,stress-11.171146%. Knownholdout2025–Sep11 closedN9,return43.974258%,wins66.6667%; INCLUDING final open position net liquidation-equivalent mark at47.93 Sep11 19:55UTC =>71.810410%,stress68.408332%,fullperiod sampled MTMDD18.833005%. Mark is NOT actual exit; keep separate from win rate. Open entry2026-07-24 13:30:00+00:00,target48.365919999999996; July24 splitADR1.45932 versus prior allADR1.42325 explains old target-hit difference. Training/holdout missing auto+manager counts149/12; missing observations notzero or assumed fills. Daily portfolio size100% research benchmark, not account allocation. Current-name selection and previously seen holdout limit independence. Timing changes train and recent returns; do not choose control solely for best holdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen L20 prior-close breakout AND SMA50; signal alladjusted, ADR20 from prior split-only high-low; 2ADR stop/6ADR target/40sessions. Entry09:30ET. Automatic exits only. Force exit final manager sample on40th session. Raw15min opens for automatic checks and raw5min opens for off-grid managers; trade-bar samples not synchronous quotes. XNYS calendar removes halfdays/afterhours; split factor1or5. No dividend cash. Fees1bp/side and5bpslip, stress15bp on FIXED paths/barriers. Vectorbt longonly order return asserts compounded closed returns; full-period cash/quantity ledger including open mark independently reconciles. Train2020–24 closedN29,return-7.421094%,DD72.280462%,wins31.0345%,stress-12.637925%. Knownholdout2025–Sep11 closedN9,return32.770053%,wins55.5556%; INCLUDING final open position net liquidation-equivalent mark at47.93 Sep11 19:55UTC =>60.465459%,stress57.288027%,fullperiod sampled MTMDD18.833005%. Mark is NOT actual exit; keep separate from win rate. Open entry2026-07-24 13:30:00+00:00,target48.365919999999996; July24 splitADR1.45932 versus prior allADR1.42325 explains old target-hit difference. Training/holdout missing auto+manager counts151/14; missing observations notzero or assumed fills. Daily portfolio size100% research benchmark, not account allocation. Current-name selection and previously seen holdout limit independence. Timing changes train and recent returns; do not choose control solely for best holdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

PrimaryAlpaca fee schedule retrievedSep13 at https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees gives tier1taker25bp, maker15bp at30dayvolume0–100000USD; buyfee chargedcreditedcoin andsellfee creditedUSD. This is documented schedule,not actualaccountfeeledger or archivedhistoricalfees. LetE=actualentryfill,r=2ATR/E andk=.9975^2*.999 for25bpfees+10bpsellslip. Netstopequityfactor=k(1−r); fullnet3Rtargetmultiplier T=(1+3[1−k(1−r)])/k. AtSep12 illustrativeE772? exactE BTC77343.651385/ETH2527.570045/SOL101.8672655, r6.0381/7.4699/10.7150%,netloss6.6008/8.0241/11.2497%. Fulltargetgains20.5241/24.8197/34.5551%; quarterat+2r meansresidualT=[(1+3loss)/k−.25(1+2r)]/.75, gains23.3401/28.1130/38.9300%. These are arithmeticrequiredprices,not fairvalues or claims theywilltrade. Premises: fees reducecredits onbothsides; partialprofit reducescapitalparticipatingintail; borrowinggross3R acrosspolicies misstatespayoff. Who benefits: liquiditysuppliers/venuecollectcost evenonfalsebreakouts. Conclusion requiredefensiblemeasuredrangeand conditionalnetedge beforetargetadoption; keepcash ratherthan shrinkstop to manufacture3R. Prices/ATR source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Startstate102.12Convexcash,850.99equity,query_trades[]; goalboundedpremiumwithmultipleupside. Bindingconstraintscrediblecostedpayoffandwholecontractrisk,notmonthprofitshortfall349.01. Atmost3open,fund102.12,normalrisk25.5297,conviction42.5495,absolute51.0594. Current50calland45intrinsicfail5%rule;affordableput/callcover2/10and0/10. Noorderswhileclosed. 2. Premisesandattacks: (a)historicaloptiondataexist,10windowsall200afterJune18holidayrepair, butselectedT3completeonly6train/1known-calendarholdout; noendpointcarryforward. (b)Commontrainmean+4.529617%at5USDcost becomes-15.218254%at10USD;95%bootstrap[-19.512195,32.148664]%. Favorableoneholdout+$26on1000portfoliois74USDpremium,noteligible. Counterexampleunknownresidual/hugetailcanimproveexpectancy,butnoexecutableproof. (c)RSI/SMAfiltersselectsame2winners,notindependentsignals;0/7observed4xclosingtargetsnotactualexitprobability. (d)4.333333%hypotheticalfull-losscontaminationerasesbaseline;notestimatedprobability. Conclusionsvalidconditionalondata; soundnesslimitedbymissingquotes,first-newsandlistingvintages,costassumptions,andknowncalendarselection. 3. Cashreason: no currentresearchedcontractpassesjointcoverage/size/payoffgates; notuniversalclaimallmarketslackedge. PreservepriorbroadUS/foreign/crypto-linkedscreen3104; tonightboundedquantdeepdive notrerunningstaticuniverse. Sixanalyses3167–72,backtest3175andobservations27512–73/27608–10/27689documentstatistics,regimes,MonteCarlo,technicalexits,financials,consequencesandcostedoptionreplay. Fresh926barsreconfirmall10underlyingreturns. Livewinrate/slippageunidentifiedwith0Convextrades. 4. Primarysources: elevenissuerdateoriginals(10historical+upcoming),sameissuerforcash,exchangeCboecalendarforJune18repair; repetitionnotindependentfundamentalcorroboration. Currentquartercash229.4m/nodebtandclientmixedtrendsdo notsupplytailodds. Factendshere; stock-to-cashconsequencechainsandsimulationcontaminationareassumptions. 5. Ops: all5collectorsactualENDverified192/199/230/252/256;25604:16ENDfullypresent,preservecadence. Replaced355with361sameSep22last-sessionreview,retained356prospectiveoutcome; bothbranchesexplicit,noautomaticentry. Newlessons906–08requireactualcontract/date-specificmissingness,coststressandcollinearfilterchecks. Next08UTCresearchcanextendmatchedhistoricaloptiontesttoanotherpreviouslyscreenednameusingtestedrecipe2918; noMondaypurchasefromthisincompleteholdout. NoFUNDproposal.

Premises: quietweekend prices do not bound20dayrisk; crosscoin paths must preserve commonshocks; unconditional resampling does not validate anentry. Seed91306,10000paths*480hours; sample complete24hourUTCdayblocks jointly acrossBTC/ETH/SOL by nextweekday startingSunday,20days. Train2024–25 versus known2026pool separately;holdout254completejointdays. Includes10bpbuyslip by initialspot/1.001,25bpcreditedassetfees per side+10bpsellslip. CurrentSep12 ATR20 frozen; hourly exitchecks and every2hourquarter/BE proxy,NOTactualmanager15m engine. Fullnet3R targets require20.5241/24.8197/34.5551% rises. Holdout fulltargetprobabilities5.73/9.77/3.07%,stop54.72/57.10/45.70%; means−.9304/−.6575/−1.2271%. Quarterat+2grossR,stopentry,residualtarget solved forcombinednet3R requires23.3401/28.1130/38.9300% gains; finaltargetprob3.56/6.92/1.76%,mean−.9019/−.6034/−1.2217%. Approximatebinarymean halfKelly0allthreeholdout; trainingpositiveBTC orSOL plug-ins are not adopted. Three$29.785probes=$89.355: managedproxy meanPnL−$.8123,P1−$9.2638,worstsample−$10.8530(1.275%account). No >3%account loss in10000paths is NOTa hardbound; empiricalblocks omitnewjumps,structuralchanges,liquidityfailure and intrahour excursions. IndividualmanagedP99loss$2.6158/$3.2233/$4.2212. Counterargument: trendconditionedfreshentries can outperform unconditionalblocks; these odds neitherprove norvetoa validconditionaledge. Actualsize0 becausefreshentryabsent andsamepolicymanagerholdoutweak. All16scenario rows recorded. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. New historicaloptionbar replay, notintrinsicsimulation. Frozen note2914 beforefetch; nearest2.5gridcall frompriorentrydayS,monthlyexpiry>=7days,T2/3/5closeentry,prior-sessioncloseexit. Chronologicalfirst8train,last2knowncalendarholdout; common6trainselectT3bymean ticketreturn. Vectorbt onewholecontractperavailableevent,$1000initialcash,observedinterveningtrademarkNAV. Baseline.05/share roundtrip split eachside.0125fee+.0125priceslippage;stress.10total split.025fee+.025slippage/side. Explicitfee/slippage reruncompletedunchanged. Assumedcosts,notbrokerfees/measuredspread. No missingendpointimputation. 2. T3trainN6 -0.9%portfolio,$-9,DD2.861371%,win33.333333%;stress-3.9%,DD5.153617%. Known-calendarholdoutonlyMarch2026N1,+2.6%portfolio,$26,DD0observed,100%win;stress+2.1%;ticket+33.986928%on76.50entryall-in. $74premiumfailscurrentrisk;zero eligibleholdouttrades. June5entrymissing despiteJune18holidayrepair. PositiveholdoutN1doesnotestablishout-of-sampleedge; underlyingoutcomesalreadyknownandnewselectionamongknownnameaddsresearchbias. 3. Returnonvariableentrycapitaldiffers:trainmean+4.529617%butnormalizedfullreinvestment-2.204002%,DD51.121951%;stressmean-15.218254%,normalized-76.182143%. Thisnormalizedcapital permitsfractionalcontracts,nottradeablebook. T2trainN7-1.8%,holdoutN2+1.6%;T5trainN7-2.0%,holdoutN1+2.1%. Neitherchooselag2foritsfullholdoutnorcarryforwardmissingmarks. Endpointobservations27514–43 andall18grid27544–61 verifiedreadback. 4. RequiredstockCLI momentum20/1000days685bars,N32,+41.383224%,DD55.802626%,win28.125%;unsplitdiagnostic, notoption/eventevidence. Sixtrain+oneholdout observedpre-eventclose4xhitcount0; managed15minexitsnotvalidated. Tradebarsareobservedtransactionsbutnotnecessarily16ET/synchronous/executablefills. Earlyactualnews/contractlistingvintagesunverified. Conclusioninconclusiveoptionedge;rejectliveadoption.

Calendar-hour logclose returns from venuebars, train2024–25 and knownholdout2026Jan1–Sep12. Do not bridge missinghours. Holdoutweekend hourlySD BTC33.0404/ETH48.8851/SOL58.7092bp versusweekday51.2783/66.7165/70.1682bp;N1752weekend,4366weekdayeach. Weekendmeans−.4173/−.6670/−.5293bp perhour are descriptive, not causal/weekendshortsignal. Worstweekend simplehours−3.5913/−4.0245/−5.0440%,so quietmedian does not boundlefttail. Synchronized6118hour holdout correlations BTCETH.887966/BTCSOL.837870/ETHSOL.848997, versus matched11801traininghours .792899/.750043/.770080. TrainingSOLcoverage partial, so composition/time differ; no formal structuralbreak claimed. Premises: 24/7risk includes weekends; correlatedcoins are one sharedriskfactor; only drawdownstress acrossjointpaths can evaluate diversification. Strongestcounterargument: correlations below1 and tail timing can differ; retain synchronized simulation ratherthan assumeperfectcorrelation or independence. Conclusion threequarterprobes must countjoint exposure, not three independent convictions. All14distribution/correlation rows recorded with source/date/units. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises: trend and weekend conditions may change breakoutpayoffs, but post-hoc subsets with1–2trades cannot validate a filter. Base fullgross3R delay0/slip10bp hourly holdout sampleBTC6/ETH7/SOL6; trendabovepriorSMA200 groups only1/2/1trades withmean1.6307/.5414/5.6100%. BelowSMAgroupsN5each means.6147/2.7189/.2757%. Weekendentried hourlyBTCN1−2.8514%;ETH/SOLN0. Dailytrend groupsN1/1/2,mean12.2254/10.8368/2.9634%; not independent corroboration since samecoins/sameAugust rally. 10000IIDtrade bootstrapmean95%CIs hourlyBTC[−3.2307,5.6745],ETH[−2.6831,7.7079],SOL[−5.5853,8.9792]%,allcross0. All12train/holdoutfrequency subset tables recorded. Removing one best trade makes hourlyholdout compoundedreturns−6.4646/−1.3074/−11.4214%; this illustrates tailconcentration, not a reason to exclude besttrades. Counterexample to 'positive trend suffices': ETHaboveSMA group underperformed belowSMA; different marketregimes and occupancy confound. Conclusion do not add weekend/SMA filter or choose delay after holdout. Current dailytrend remains context; freshentry separate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Bullassumptionchain: customerretentionimproves -> full-priceunits/workingcapitalconversionimprove -> financingriskfallsandoperatingleveragecanrepriceequity. Bear: discounting/returnsrise -> marginsandinventorycashweaken ->buyback-fundedliquidityshrinksorcapitalraisingdilutesstock. Thesearecausalhypotheses,notmeasuredprobabilities. Interestedmanagementbenefitsfromturnaroundnarrative;customersfromfit/value;liquidityprovidersreceive spreadcompensationbutunknownactualspread. 2. Fundchain: one50premiumconsumes48.962%of102.12book ->twofulllossesalmostexhaustit -> missedlaterfattertailopportunities. Account6%absoluteand3positionmaximumcannotrepairnegativecostededge;normal3%25.5297andconviction5%42.5495arestricter. 3. Strongcounterargumentcashmissesrarehugewinners; retainlargesthistoricalwinnerandprospectivecollector, butdonotclaimhypotheticaltailsatisfiesdocumentedmispricing. Nooutside-mandatevalidatedoperation/newFUND; broadmarketprior3104remainscontext, thisrunboundedquantwork.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. ReopenedJune10issuerQ3endedMay2: revenue340.3m+4.7%,clients2.309m+.9%QoQ/-1.9%YoY,GM43.7%down50bp,FCF6.5m,repurchases15.1m=>8.6mexcessoverquarterFCF;liquidassets229.4m,nodebt. Q4forecast322–327mrevenue/7–10mAdjEBITDAremainsforecast. Source https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx . 2. Bullcounterexampleto bearishpricefilter: sequentialclientsandliquiditysupportturnaround;beartobull: fallingYoYclientsandcash-fundedrepurchasescanmaskfragility. Oneinterestedissuer suppliesfinancialfacts;10datedannouncementsarenot10independentcashsources. 3. Neitherfinancialdirectioncalibrates4.333333%unobservedfull-optionloss threshold orsupports3xexpectedpayoff. Cashretention followscontract/risk/testfailures,notassertioncompanyinsolvent.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Acrosssixselectedtrainingwindowsandonesupportedholdout, zeroobservedclosingmarksreach4xentrypremium andzerohit halfpremium; missingintermediatetrades meantheseareobservedcounts,notactualintradayhitoddsorfillclaims. Baselineis time-exitcontrol,notvalidated15minstop/trailing/+2Rquarterpolicy. 2. Current.50call requiresgross3Rtarget2.00. Historicaleventintrinsicrequires52.542373%stockrise,0/10versusmaximum44.347826%; residualtimevaluecouldhelpbutpriorIVsensitivity3129hasnodefendedtarget. No livestoportargetadopted. 3. Nearestcurrentcallcost50USD(5.87551%equity),intrinsic45USD(5.28796%)bothabove42.5495convictioncap;absolute6%51.0594isnotpermissiontoignorestricterrisk. Threeof6trainpremiums<=normal25.5297,holdout74noteligible. Counterexamplecheaperfuturestockchangesbothcontractcostandbusinessregime; mustrepricejointlyandretainsmallprobeconstraint. OnlyRTHexecution,defaultfutureexitSep22; holdthroughmargin16.578014-3.389831=13.188183ppmotivatesresearch,notcurrentexception.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. NumPyseed913061,20kpaths/20opportunities,startingfund102.12; hypotheticalconstant25USDall-inexposure scales sixT3trainingnetreturns; stopfundingbelow25. Thispermitsfractionalscaling andisnot a quoted20premium+5costwholecontract. .05totalcostbaseline median123.234983,losingseries27.24%,medianDD19.584802%;.10costmedian24.828333,losing99.265%,DD75.832820%,51.66%cashbelowticket. 2. Separate91306iid/circularblock3bootstraprowsrecorded; N1holdoutbootstrapdegenerate272.05terminal/0losscannotforecastcertainty. Floatingnearzeroreturns distortlossstreak;discardthatmetric. 3. Addhypotheticalfullall-inlossprobabilityq tobaseline: qbreak-even4.333333%,58.770047%chance>=1in20iid opportunities. q5/10%median98.931847/72.520697,losing51.56/71.655%;assumptionsnotestimatedodds. Sixmarkreturns yield196.918696USDhalfKelly,farabovefund102.12andnormal25.5297risk, demonstrating missingtail/selection instability;not liveKelly. Currenteventintrinsicstudy3118halfKelly3.21664USDusesdifferentholdthroughpayoffandcannotbecombined. 4. Counterexample:positiveunobservedtailcouldimproveexpectancy; baselineincludesallobservedwinners. Neitherfavorablebootstrapnoroperator349.01shortfall licensesrisk.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Lag all indicators one session beforeentry: RSI14EWMalph1/14, SMA50, annualRV20samplelogstd*sqrt252. T3complete trainN6: belowSMA50N2mean+42.857143%,2wins;aboveN4mean-14.634146%,0wins(twoflat aftercost). RSI<50 selectsexactlysameN2; RSI>=50 sameN4. Correlations returnwithRSI-.702231,withRV+.306617,smalltraining-onlydescriptive. 2. Counterexample: twoindicators donotprovideindependentconfirmation; collinearpartitions andposthocfilter selectionmakethe100%smallgroupwinrateunreliable. Oneknown-calendarholdoutMarch2026below50wins33.986928%,premium74USDoversize;missingJune cannotvalidatecontrastingregime. 3. CurrentSep11RSI35.386979 andprice2.95<SMA503.5796 superficiallymatchwinnergroup, but thisdoesnotvalidatefullpremiumtail,feesorwholecontractrisk. Do notadopt filterorreplaceexistingoptioncoveragegate.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Frozen before fetching: call strike nearest prior-entry-daystockclose on2.5grid, firststandardmonthlyexpiry>=7daysafterearnings, T2/T3/T5close entries and prior-sessioncloseexit. First8eventstrain,last2previouslyknowncalendarholdout; choose bymean ticketreturn on common6trainingevents to avoid comparingdifferentmissingness. T3wins+4.529617%mean versusT2-14.277006/T5-5.645199%. 2. Sixtrainreturns havebootstrapmean95%[-19.512195,32.148664]%;63.92%bootstrapmeanspositive isnotposteriorprobability. At.10sharecostmean-15.218254%. MissingMarch2024bothendpoints,March2025T3entry,andJune2026T3entryleave7/10completeoverall. Hypotheticalmissingreturns[-100,+300]%allowfull8trainmean[-21.602787,78.397213]%andtwoeventholdoutmean[-33.006536,166.993464]%;notstatisticalorhardbounds. 3. Timingcounterexample:Jun2026initialJun19wrongholidayexpiry; Cboe Jun18repair recovers7dailybars butnotJune5entry. March2026T2optionclose.75 below same-dayintrinsic.79 illustratesasynchronousmarks;notarbitrage. Reject claim dataabsentglobally; historictradebars existbut executionedge unproven. No droppingmissinglosers, latebarcarryforwardorstrike substitution.

Predeclared HIGH480 false-to-true events,2prior-dailyATR20 stop,gross3R target,20dexit. Each train2024–25/knownholdout2026Jan1–Sep12 startsflat;2023warmup; full calendarreindex and no missingbar signal. Freeze ATR excluding signal UTCday; delayedopen must exceed frozenhigh. Exits at hourlyopens withovershoot, terminalclosecosted. Exact25bpcreditedcoinbuyfee,25bpsell+10/30bpslip; vectorbt from_orders finalcash reconciles<1e−5. Summary arrays=[window,delayhours,slipbp,return%,DD%,win%,N,halfKelly]: [["train",0,10,25.80951170226426,38.75805309385727,54.54545454545454,11,1.1074234688921152],["holdout",0,10,4.696690429715815,22.47771688729755,50,6,1.2266567262412873],["train",0,30,24.128878339405176,39.27212760725306,54.54545454545454,11,1.1035837157870332],["holdout",0,30,2.213872095176569,23.40242892296066,50,6,0.7948438348463944],["train",2,10,44.26454674413809,30.34690065215855,66.66666666666666,9,2.5778743326517204],["holdout",2,10,10.745037978099148,16.212938884416406,60,5,3.748471646301409],["train",2,30,39.16337300086592,30.901904875038653,66.66666666666666,9,2.3406796367351257],["holdout",2,30,8.552129893534755,16.54741917174499,60,5,3.044340137669421],["train",4,10,36.69165039103146,26.838415518202975,55.55555555555556,9,2.478271835536935],["holdout",4,10,-5.625189184198987,20.550740655707767,16.666666666666664,6,0],["train",4,30,13.784420505082947,33.73180647313123,44.44444444444444,9,0.9567173990314317],["holdout",4,30,-7.863230421705353,21.498438316177893,16.666666666666664,6,0]]. All metrics and trade returns separately in60observations; fulltimestamp ledgers results.json. This target is gross3R, NOTnet3R/quartermanagement. Notliveauthorization; separate15m managerextension uses samepolicy withincomparison. SOL missingtraining history, smallN and inspectedholdout limitinference; no winningdelay adopted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Predeclared HIGH480 false-to-true events,2prior-dailyATR20 stop,gross3R target,20dexit. Each train2024–25/knownholdout2026Jan1–Sep12 startsflat;2023warmup; full calendarreindex and no missingbar signal. Freeze ATR excluding signal UTCday; delayedopen must exceed frozenhigh. Exits at hourlyopens withovershoot, terminalclosecosted. Exact25bpcreditedcoinbuyfee,25bpsell+10/30bpslip; vectorbt from_orders finalcash reconciles<1e−5. Summary arrays=[window,delayhours,slipbp,return%,DD%,win%,N,halfKelly]: [["train",0,10,30.213027025341177,46.15312671371922,47.368421052631575,19,0.6655620017244688],["holdout",0,10,13.733733534189312,22.33626371317833,57.14285714285714,7,3.2111305573046494],["train",0,30,17.323180684257437,47.430072562762525,47.368421052631575,19,0.5315881447167456],["holdout",0,30,10.59334598278349,22.646299516825607,57.14285714285714,7,2.5415440053830203],["train",2,10,65.13182818830985,29.70900019235322,58.82352941176471,17,1.3087744922116473],["holdout",2,10,-5.058183811965861,22.270999613474316,33.33333333333333,6,0],["train",2,30,58.22971245385128,30.998762313050896,58.82352941176471,17,1.2421399986722799],["holdout",2,30,-7.3096712370086445,22.58129595322985,33.33333333333333,6,0],["train",4,10,90.02254429139484,36.88848596186753,58.82352941176471,17,1.5944071109014066],["holdout",4,10,2.4861778723921333,19.11969765402035,42.857142857142854,7,1.2278289411408494],["train",4,30,80.86009144118312,38.138183030829694,52.94117647058824,17,1.5580817012878787],["holdout",4,30,-9.16236274477933,22.91093510051304,42.857142857142854,7,0]]. All metrics and trade returns separately in60observations; fulltimestamp ledgers results.json. This target is gross3R, NOTnet3R/quartermanagement. Notliveauthorization; separate15m managerextension uses samepolicy withincomparison. SOL missingtraining history, smallN and inspectedholdout limitinference; no winningdelay adopted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Predeclared HIGH480 false-to-true events,2prior-dailyATR20 stop,gross3R target,20dexit. Each train2024–25/knownholdout2026Jan1–Sep12 startsflat;2023warmup; full calendarreindex and no missingbar signal. Freeze ATR excluding signal UTCday; delayedopen must exceed frozenhigh. Exits at hourlyopens withovershoot, terminalclosecosted. Exact25bpcreditedcoinbuyfee,25bpsell+10/30bpslip; vectorbt from_orders finalcash reconciles<1e−5. Summary arrays=[window,delayhours,slipbp,return%,DD%,win%,N,halfKelly]: [["train",0,10,-34.10207940996422,51.223500264434584,31.818181818181817,22,0],["holdout",0,10,3.865085512335696,14.969439154901975,50,6,1.9140143661182405],["train",0,30,-34.282329645730755,51.08963483343785,31.818181818181817,22,0],["holdout",0,30,1.8313690835902605,15.627950319962947,50,6,1.1118445833222594],["train",2,10,-5.6929659613824555,36.152899252152224,35,20,0.13411144355404447],["holdout",2,10,-0.37151101460021607,15.905558141881693,33.33333333333333,6,0.19618486599530183],["train",2,30,-11.752650092185462,38.00140267095728,35,20,0],["holdout",2,30,-2.4671337768238715,17.01318308981469,33.33333333333333,6,0],["train",4,10,-10.086221598371736,38.0388548608827,42.10526315789473,19,0],["holdout",4,10,2.5817921205252503,13.96480952579604,50,6,1.0229440715258162],["train",4,30,-16.22131508368463,41.63473902675122,36.84210526315789,19,0],["holdout",4,30,0.665531823142814,14.89383800138655,50,6,0.5123497529498771]]. All metrics and trade returns separately in60observations; fulltimestamp ledgers results.json. This target is gross3R, NOTnet3R/quartermanagement. Notliveauthorization; separate15m managerextension uses samepolicy withincomparison. SOL missingtraining history, smallN and inspectedholdout limitinference; no winningdelay adopted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Diagnostic C91306, predeclared60 cells. Fresh false-to-true close>prior20calendar highs daily or480hour highs hourly. Train2024–25; known2026Jan1–Sep12holdout, each startsflat;2023warmup. Freeze ATR20 excluding signal UTCday, entry nextopen or delay; cancel delayedopen<=frozenhigh. Stop entry−2ATR,targetentry+6ATR,time20days; check at each sampledopen, gapovershootcharged, terminalclosecosted. Gross3R target notnet3R or mandatedquarter/BE policy; NOT live authorization. Exact25bp creditedcoin buyfee (vectorbt cash-equivalent1/.9975−1),25bpsell,10/30bpslip; customorderledger vectorbt finalcash reconciles<1e−5. No fill-forward missingprices forsignals;calendar reindex. SOL training incomplete. All cells=[{"return":34.458878026702806,"drawdown":31.588470493420452,"win_rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":9,"mean_trade_pct":4.142065346208124,"half_kelly_fraction":1.51244063285213,"skipped_entries":0,"days":731,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"train"},{"return":-29.803963815426744,"drawdown":39.02815504192447,"win_rate":28.57142857142857,"sample":7,"mean_trade_pct":-4.466468344010586,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":255,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout"},{"return":29.704431327084198,"drawdown":32.13358173937147,"win_rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":9,"mean_trade_pct":3.726327313674249,"half_kelly_fraction":1.350967339190396,"skipped_entries":0,"days":731,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"train"},{"return":-26.398607832625544,"drawdown":35.29850243033073,"win_rate":14.285714285714285,"sample":7,"mean_trade_pct":-3.8927833838910852,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":255,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout"},{"return":25.420885921607205,"drawdown":30.301096474759305,"win_rate":57.14285714285714,"sample":7,"mean_trade_pct":4.488646425436358,"half_kelly_fraction":1.259588472030996,"skipped_entries":3,"days":731,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"train"},{"return":-12.867061844365734,"drawdown":27.75180407776515,"win_rate":16.666666666666664,"sample":6,"mean_trade_pct":-1.9201880405994836,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":1,"days":255,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout"},{"return":21.95779562644765,"drawdown":30.718316751062513,"win_rate":57.14285714285714,"sample":7,"mean_trade_pct":4.071524831557579,"half_kelly_fraction":1.1396809107852504,"skipped_entries":3,"days":731,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"train"},{"return":-14.933366476414351,"drawdown":28.613605016046417,"win_rate":16.666666666666664,"sample":6,"mean_trade_pct":-2.3117253883536195,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":1,"days":255,"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout"}]. Models ignore historical quotes/depth/vintages, bar-open execution is idealized; compare15m manager experiment separately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Diagnostic C91306, predeclared60 cells. Fresh false-to-true close>prior20calendar highs daily or480hour highs hourly. Train2024–25; known2026Jan1–Sep12holdout, each startsflat;2023warmup. Freeze ATR20 excluding signal UTCday, entry nextopen or delay; cancel delayedopen<=frozenhigh. Stop entry−2ATR,targetentry+6ATR,time20days; check at each sampledopen, gapovershootcharged, terminalclosecosted. Gross3R target notnet3R or mandatedquarter/BE policy; NOT live authorization. Exact25bp creditedcoin buyfee (vectorbt cash-equivalent1/.9975−1),25bpsell,10/30bpslip; customorderledger vectorbt finalcash reconciles<1e−5. No fill-forward missingprices forsignals;calendar reindex. SOL training incomplete. All cells=[{"return":-14.708540624975669,"drawdown":44.64384424276863,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":16,"mean_trade_pct":0.008970593893272566,"half_kelly_fraction":0.0024873558075877433,"skipped_entries":0,"days":731,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"train"},{"return":-14.267479191675875,"drawdown":26.66399395121769,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"mean_trade_pct":-2.705731396618394,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":255,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout"},{"return":-19.996206876800684,"drawdown":45.63156263014141,"win_rate":31.25,"sample":16,"mean_trade_pct":-0.39026800899233693,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":731,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"train"},{"return":-15.965104127502231,"drawdown":27.24834401499575,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"mean_trade_pct":-3.0941328333627305,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":255,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout"},{"return":36.47267904464448,"drawdown":21.57214775719677,"win_rate":50,"sample":12,"mean_trade_pct":3.538484334478619,"half_kelly_fraction":1.230337788564526,"skipped_entries":4,"days":731,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"train"},{"return":-27.458382948521432,"drawdown":31.940702695446642,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"mean_trade_pct":-5.9858843962766635,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":3,"days":255,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout"},{"return":0.6462735851387151,"drawdown":33.212708089850764,"win_rate":41.66666666666667,"sample":12,"mean_trade_pct":0.9303542086100828,"half_kelly_fraction":0.3220385665883565,"skipped_entries":4,"days":731,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"train"},{"return":-28.89480936909855,"drawdown":32.88662968098834,"win_rate":20,"sample":5,"mean_trade_pct":-6.361191370663713,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":3,"days":255,"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout"}]. Models ignore historical quotes/depth/vintages, bar-open execution is idealized; compare15m manager experiment separately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Diagnostic C91306, predeclared60 cells. Fresh false-to-true close>prior20calendar highs daily or480hour highs hourly. Train2024–25; known2026Jan1–Sep12holdout, each startsflat;2023warmup. Freeze ATR20 excluding signal UTCday, entry nextopen or delay; cancel delayedopen<=frozenhigh. Stop entry−2ATR,targetentry+6ATR,time20days; check at each sampledopen, gapovershootcharged, terminalclosecosted. Gross3R target notnet3R or mandatedquarter/BE policy; NOT live authorization. Exact25bp creditedcoin buyfee (vectorbt cash-equivalent1/.9975−1),25bpsell,10/30bpslip; customorderledger vectorbt finalcash reconciles<1e−5. No fill-forward missingprices forsignals;calendar reindex. SOL training incomplete. All cells=[{"return":-20.246747205256327,"drawdown":30.99747645438119,"win_rate":38.88888888888889,"sample":18,"mean_trade_pct":-0.807128911609015,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":731,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"train"},{"return":-10.117357948740391,"drawdown":24.74016665003479,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"mean_trade_pct":-1.4488758062713305,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":255,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout"},{"return":-30.93986553801804,"drawdown":34.9768857956267,"win_rate":31.57894736842105,"sample":19,"mean_trade_pct":-1.5044362646029363,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":731,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"train"},{"return":-12.248870136238835,"drawdown":25.93474703271117,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6,"mean_trade_pct":-1.8422946456240648,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":0,"days":255,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":0,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout"},{"return":-25.735904053020175,"drawdown":35.95149351306597,"win_rate":43.75,"sample":16,"mean_trade_pct":-1.315661643226236,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":7,"days":731,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"train"},{"return":-0.2686556274030494,"drawdown":13.776620128535388,"win_rate":40,"sample":5,"mean_trade_pct":0.21390039637057848,"half_kelly_fraction":0.2250106253509645,"skipped_entries":1,"days":255,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":10,"window":"holdout"},{"return":-27.41915671025025,"drawdown":35.92711984837932,"win_rate":43.75,"sample":16,"mean_trade_pct":-1.4781360920575894,"half_kelly_fraction":0,"skipped_entries":7,"days":731,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"train"},{"return":-0.21227381922949462,"drawdown":13.034926770540778,"win_rate":40,"sample":5,"mean_trade_pct":0.19279753982137687,"half_kelly_fraction":0.22387335315499568,"skipped_entries":1,"days":255,"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","delay":1,"slippage_bp":30,"window":"holdout"}]. Models ignore historical quotes/depth/vintages, bar-open execution is idealized; compare15m manager experiment separately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TEN --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1825 --stop-pct5 --target-pct15 (actual CLI spacing --lookback 20).1250bars95trades return60.321944%,maxDD18.279506%,win36.842105%,buyhold493.742255%,avgtrade.467107%. This IEX CLI signal/exit implementation differs from frozen SIP L20 AND SMA50/2ADR6ADR/40sessions. No independent chronological holdout in CLI output; diagnostic only, not trade approval. Separate costed vectorbt longonly chronological study pending. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No parameter selected from this diagnostic.

1. Sep10 issuer H1 release refreshed Sep13 confirms OCF281.167m and net investing-248.312m;32.855m combined cash before financing is not maintenance FCF. Financing135.159m explains most168.014m growth. 2. Condensed June equity2054.657m does not separately reconcile current NCI/common shares; retain3127 common-book56.99755 as provisional,10%fleet-haircut46.52449. 3. Prior55.36145 reference target fits provisional book but lacks a guaranteed realization date. Conclusion valid conditional accounting, soundness limited by current residual claims and fleet values. Strong counterexample:10%fleetmarkdown erases discount; rising operating cash alone cannot establish rerating. No larger size or order from this refresh. Primary issuer September10, June30 period, promotional source and same origin as old release: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html ; prior annual source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm . No claim of fresh independently corroborated results.

Numbered premises:1 query_trades ownorder11pending,0filled/closed;2 fresh completed9series3151 preserveEEM34.203759%,QQQ23.698782%,IWM23.457265% top3 aboveSMA;3 account850.99cap212.7475/fund170.20slot56.7333;4 QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 unaffordablewhole,oneEEM67.84nearestslot;5 closedweekend andexistingqueuecoversMonday;6 quant3154/3155exposes regime sensitivity not policyedge or liveodds. Conclusion preserveorder11oneEEMlimit67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 horizon1–3months, no neworder/close/exitmove. Validity follows fixed mandate and venue constraints; soundness limitations adjustedreturnproxy and futurequotes/gaps remainunknown. Bindingconstraint integeraffordability, not fear. Cash uncommitted102.36 from blockedslots/rounding; no lower-rankedreplacement or two-shareconcentration. Nominalrisk1.91/upside7.27=3.806283R,breakeven20.8061%beforecosts; gaplossnotboundedby1.91. No owntrades to inferwinrate/slippage/Kelly. Specific fixed-size/no-retest mandate overridesgenericbacktest/Kelly; no strategy retest done tonight. Heldoutcalibration ishistorical known2025+data, notnewunseenvalidation; simulation omitsratchet/intraday andcannot setsize. Structuralcontext prior3110/27200retained, no newfundamentalclaim. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Due352resolved,next36008UTC; preserveMonday300 andEmpire329. PendingMonday->freshexecutablequote/boundedreplacementifstale; fill->actualentryformula/profit-onlyratchet; stop->lesson/rerank9. No new completed dailybar/selectedcrypto before08UTC, no duplicatecollector needed. Existingfractionalbook addresses unfilledslots; no separateFUNDcase.