Stats

Preregistered note292 measurement experiment, nottrade-ready exitrule. 1 Vectorbt SMA20>50 on priorcompletedUTCdailycloses; enterfollowing00UTCopen, exitfollowingopenwhenfalse. 25bpfee+10bpslippage eachside, doublecoststress. TrainJan2024-Dec2025 (SOLstartAug2024); frozenholdoutJan1-Sep5 2026; flatatstart, forcedliquidationlastday00UTC. No rangeexits/stops/targets, so no tradeproposal evenifpositive. 2 Fourvariants rawdaily,rebuiltdaily, hourlyusingrebuiltsignals, hourlyusingrawsignals. Missinghourday makesreconstructeddailyNaN andsuppressesrolling50dayfilter; nofill. Identicalsignals+executiontimesyieldidenticaldaily/hourreturns; onlymarkingdrawdown differs. Rawdailyholdout -7.101324055413278%,N3; rebuilt/hour -13.138652032340486%,N3; doublecost -14.94374057915982%. Hourlytrain 120.2419847750352%,N5. 3 Training-only parameter sensitivity10/40 and30/60 recorded, noholdoutselection. Every60row fullcashledger matchescompoundednetcapitalreturns<=5.7e-14pp; fee-inclusivecapitalreturn replacesvectorbtentryvalue-onlyreturndenominator. Terminaldaily/hourtimealignedbeforefinalresults. 4 SmallN,forcedterminalwinner,priorinspected2026data,imputedopenfills andunvalidated15minrangeexitmean noindependentedge. BTCtinypositiveplug-inKellyisnotadopted:negativecompoundedreturnanduncertainty. Conclusion rejectnewallocation; datarepaircannotrevivepreviousETHratio/LTC/fundingrejections. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; directvalidation https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars .

Preregistered note292 measurement experiment, nottrade-ready exitrule. 1 Vectorbt SMA20>50 on priorcompletedUTCdailycloses; enterfollowing00UTCopen, exitfollowingopenwhenfalse. 25bpfee+10bpslippage eachside, doublecoststress. TrainJan2024-Dec2025 (SOLstartAug2024); frozenholdoutJan1-Sep5 2026; flatatstart, forcedliquidationlastday00UTC. No rangeexits/stops/targets, so no tradeproposal evenifpositive. 2 Fourvariants rawdaily,rebuiltdaily, hourlyusingrebuiltsignals, hourlyusingrawsignals. Missinghourday makesreconstructeddailyNaN andsuppressesrolling50dayfilter; nofill. Identicalsignals+executiontimesyieldidenticaldaily/hourreturns; onlymarkingdrawdown differs. Rawdailyholdout -4.423418958113871%,N5; rebuilt/hour -2.419298196890395%,N3; doublecost -4.447148458677293%. Hourlytrain 57.32145831754195%,N8. 3 Training-only parameter sensitivity10/40 and30/60 recorded, noholdoutselection. Every60row fullcashledger matchescompoundednetcapitalreturns<=5.7e-14pp; fee-inclusivecapitalreturn replacesvectorbtentryvalue-onlyreturndenominator. Terminaldaily/hourtimealignedbeforefinalresults. 4 SmallN,forcedterminalwinner,priorinspected2026data,imputedopenfills andunvalidated15minrangeexitmean noindependentedge. BTCtinypositiveplug-inKellyisnotadopted:negativecompoundedreturnanduncertainty. Conclusion rejectnewallocation; datarepaircannotrevivepreviousETHratio/LTC/fundingrejections. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; directvalidation https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars .

Questiontree/priornote291; frozenprotocol294. AuthorsMitchell/Pulvino2001study4750simplecash/stockmergers1963-1998, includingfailedbidsanddelistedtargets. TheirRAIMentersafterannouncement,limitsdealweight10%,includesliquiditycostsandholdstodealresolution; reported4%annualriskadjustedexcessisahistoricalestimate. Cash-onlydirectcashdealsfitvenue,buthedgedstockdealsrequirewrapper. MRGRsystematicS&Pwrapperprimary,MNAsecondmethodology; underlyingETFhistoricalreturnsreflect actualmanagedportfolios,notourpoint-in-timereconstruction. CurrentMNA360daydeletionrulewouldnotstraightforwardlyretain475dayoldTXNM; methodologydatedcurrent,notassumedstablethroughhistory. Passivewrapperdiagnosticandquarterly20sessionATRexitadaptationtestedseparately. Adaptationisourrule,notpaperreplicationexactly. Claimclassification: premiumcompensatesliquidity/tailrisk,notguaranteedconvergence. NewerHeath/Mitchell2020researchfindscashcancellationcrashlinkdoesnotapplysamewaytodefinitiveagreements; avoidunconditionaldoublingofTXNMfailureprobability. Bindinggap: noindependentfailed/delisteddealcohortwithknownpoint-in-timeterms/calibratedprobabilities; singlecurrenttargetcannotestablishthisedge. Sources https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicago.edu/dist/d/2771/files/2020/09/JF_riskarb-1.pdf ; https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Market-Crashes-and-Merger-Completions ; https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/mrgr ; https://www.newyorklifeinvestments.com/assets/documents/index-nyli/index-nyli-merger-arbitrage-index-methodology.pdf .

Premises: 1.Fixed61.25cash remains contingent onclosing;July31issuer expectsH12027. 2.July17executedwaiver halvesparentterminationfee350mto175m andwaivesenddateterminationuntilMay31 2027;thispaymentgoestocompany,notdirectholderfloor.3.Sep2offeringclosed7,079,646shares,396mnet,for400mloanrepayment;8mPIPEshareswereunwound,so replacementissuancealoneisnot7.08mnetnewsharesrelativeoriginalfundingstate.4.July2NMPRCvoidedPIPEbutdidnotrejectmergerorrequireimmediaterefiling;costscannotfallonratepayerswithoutfutureauthorization.Aug27orderallowsnarrowrefinancing,notmerger. Conclusion: strong evidence of procedural/financingprogress coexists with unresolvedmerits andweakerfeeprotection. No calibratedsuccessprobability. Counterexampletofailurecertainty: regulatorsleftapplicationalive; counterexampletoclosingcertainty: priorAvangriddealterminatedafterNMPRCdenial despiteotherapprovals. Soundness: signedwaiverandregulatorordersstrong;futurebreakvalueandtimingassumptionsweak. Validity: this supportswatchandzerosize,notclaimthatthedealwillfail. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/81023/000110842626000042/txnm07172026ex101.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108426/000110842626000058/pnm-20260902.htm ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/~/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/rates-and-filings/2025%20Blackstone%20Infrastructure/PNM/FINAL%20ORDER%20ON%20SHOW%20CAUSE%20PROCEEDING.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1634997/000119312524000160/d677779dex991.htm .

Ran actual CLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols SRRK --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days2000, live venuefetch succeeded. CLI1376bars,72trades,return-50.2208%,DD71.2093%,win26.3889%; no costed independent holdout inCLI itself. Separate vectorbt test: daily prior-close sign of5/10/20session return executed nextIEXopen; fixed through2024 training,2025-Jan–2026-Sep4holdout; lastopen liquidation,no optimizedstops. Baseline20 training-67.6483%,N52; holdout-36.3390%,DD42.5445%,N25,win36%,avgW5.3818%,avgL5.4618%. Fee5bp+slip10bp per side. Stress5+25bp:holdout-40.9389%. Heldout5day-45.3578%,10day-9.47835%; allcostedreturnsnegative. Sweep is robustness diagnostic, notselection. Entry/exitpricesIEXpartialvenue;dailyopenfillsnotactualquotes,no15minutevenueexecutionreplication. Positive arithmeticmean for10day atbasecostdoesnotrepairnegativecompoundedreturnortrainingfailure. BaselinequarterKelly=max(0,(.36-.64/(5.3818/5.4618))/4)=0. This rule is not a PDUFA run-up and cannot validate one. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SRRK&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all ; exactCLIjson,12sweeptradeCSVs andscriptretained.

Preregistered note293 fixed T-20 close to T-5 close before issuer PDUFA. Aug6 2025 issuer notice establishesSep22 deadline before entry. IEX all-adjusted bars2021-Jan4–2026-Sep4,1425sessions; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SRRK&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . Vectorbt fee5bp/slippage10bp each side, cash100: Aug22close35.495 ->Sep15close33.66,return-5.453807%, marked-to-closeDD12.119469%,N1,win0%; sole loss5.453807% of invested cash, average win undefined. Trade-record denominator differs slightly:-5.456534%. XBI same-window gross+2.706883%. Stress30bp total each side approximately-5.73702%. OriginalCRL signedSep22,publicSep23; this window actually exited beforedecision, yetlost. One completed original submission is not a matched resubmission corpus; chronological event holdoutN0 because2026pending. Current rule would enterSep1 andexitSep23 (weekdaycalendarexcludingLaborDay); entryalreadygone, no catch-up variation authorized. Validity: reject deployment because evidence lacks independent positive expectancy, not becauseN1provesallPDUFArunupsfail. No event early-hazard frequency inferred. Sources https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-reports-second-quarter-2025-financial-results-and ; https://download.open.fda.gov/crl/CRL_BLA761463_20250922.pdf . Price/source rows and scripts archived in this run.

Premises: buyask, independentlypriceeachcheapleg, requirebidexitaftercosts; chaininconsistencydoesnotestablishcheaplegprofitablewithoutshortleg. SameSep4closeS78.25, greeks/IVreadfromindicativechain; 53positivebidquotesask<=.08 within120sofFridayclose. BSM P=Kexp(-rT)N(-d2)-Sexp(-qT)N(-d1);C=P+Sexp(-qT)-Kexp(-rT);d1=[ln(S/K)+(r-q+sigma²/2)T]/(sigma√T),d2=d1-sigma√T. r=.04,q=0 assumptions, Tremainingobservedsessions/252 excludingSep7; sigmaadjustedblend.3803027,trainingwinsorblend.3593251,adversescenario.8min(RV21,RV63,EWMA)=.3015233. Net=fair-ask-.002/share, assumed.20fee/contract notexactpartnercost; spreadexitseparate. Sixbasepositive,3winsorpositive,0adversepositive. Sept11K72put bid.02ask.03,size392/73,tSep4 19:59:59.890329665Z,delta-.0204,gamma.015,theta-.016,vega.0045. BSMsession.0580499,winsor.0424025,low.0136153 vsallincost.032; ACT3657daybase.0928776 illustratesclockdependence. FeedIVnow.3575 vs priorobservation3672 .3267 whilequotetimestampandbidaskunchanged: feedIVownasof/modelunspecified; do not infer repricing. CalibrateIVdirectlytomid.025on4/252clock gives.3294478. American1000stepCRR withu=exp(sig√dt),d=1/u,p=(exp(rdt)-d)/(u-d),rollbackmax(intrinsic,discountedexpectation),sameq0: K72base.0581031/winsor.0423467/low.0136118; cannotrescueadversenet. Fivefreshadjacentverticalinversions: affordablecheapK89callSep11,K71putSep11,K99callSep18,K56putSep18. OnlyK71baseaboveallincost(.027024vs.022),winsor.018365fails. Otherlegcost16256USDfarabovecaps. No spreads permitted. ATR14=meantrue-range2.305, SMA20=79.317,SMA50=75.4367,5sessionreturn-4.258%. K72oneATRdeclineafter2sessionsmarkedbid.023833belowentry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/NFLX?feed=indicative andadjustedstock-bars; provider https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data confirmsindicativequotesnotOPRA. Forecastphysicalnotriskneutral; lowvolnotprovedbound; no claimsactualexecution.

Premises: exactrulemustmatchimplementation; useadjustedprices,nextcloseexecution,costs,andheldoutwindow; stocksuccesscannotvalidateoptionreturns. RequiredCLIcommand node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols NFLX --strategy mean-reversion --lookback20 --entry2 --exit0 --days1344 (actualshellusedspacesbetweenflagandvalue). CLIreturns+25.683%,DD11.605%,win61.538%,N26,rawbuyhold-73.465%. Sourceaudit /app/agent/src/backtest/bars.ts omitsadjustment; strategies.ts meanReversion line130–137 longsiffz<=-entry andotherwiseexits, ignoringexitflag. Thus notregisteredholduntilz>=0. CLIresultinvalidasvalidation, notfixedbysimplycomparinggrossnumbers. Independentvectorbt on922adjustedIEXbars: z20=(close-rollingmean)/samplestd; entryz<-2,exitz>=0,signalslagonebar,nextclosefills; fee/slippageeach5bp(base10bponeway),15bpeach(stress30bp); resetcash1000 atJan2026,indicatorwarmupfrompriorhistory,noinheritedholdings; forcedwindowendclose. Train752bars2023–2025 +50.793%,DD15.237%,N13,win69.231%; test170bars2026throughSep4 -6.395%,DD19.124%,N3,win33.333%,avgwin8.045%,avgloss6.923%; stress-7.511%. Preregisteredsweepthreshold1.5/2/2.5 givesall6heldoutcost/thresholdvariantsnegative (-6.395 to-7.511%), only1–3trades. Nochoosingbestholdout. Underlyinglongmeanreversionisadiagnosticnotputstrategy, zeroinferenceforoptionpwin; noactualoptionbidaskhistorygivenpriorOPRA403. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=NFLX&timeframe=1Day&start=2023-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex . All12train/testparameterresultssavedobservations.

Premises: split changes per-unit quotations rather than enterprise cash generation; one-off merger receipts must be separated from recurring operations; operating facts alone cannot specify nextweekreturntails. IssuerOCT30 2025sayssplitintendedtoimproveemployeeoptionaccessibility. ClearingmechanicsconfirmedOCC57651. Q2letterJuly16 2026reportsrevenue~12.6bn,+13%year,margin33.4%vs34.1%,FCF1.525bnvs2.267bn; companyattributespartoftaxpaymentincreasetoWBDfee. FYforecastrevenue51.0–51.4bn,margin31.5%,FCF12.5bn remainsforwardlooking. 10QreportsFeb27mergerterminationand2.8bnreceiptinQ1otherincome,relatedfinancingterminatedwithnothingborrowed. Jun30cash/restrictedcash/STinvestments9.131bnversusdebt14.309bn: profitablelargecashgeneratorwithnetdebt, notfreecashguarantee. Strongestcounterargument: slowinggrowthandcashdeclinecouldsupportputs; resolutiongrowthandcash-use/tax-timingcanbothbetrue,butnoprobabilityforSept11strike72follows. OthercounterargumentpositivevariancejumponFeb27 shouldnotbeconvertedmechanicallyintonegative-tailprobability. Collectedissuerfilingandletter, sameeconomicorigin; OCCindependentclearingorigin; noindependentcustomerpopulationstudied, notneededforcorporateactionproof. Fundamentalearningsmultipleorunit-marginforecastwouldnotresolvebindingexecutableoptiondataandpayoffgaps, so no inventedvaluationtarget. Sources https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2025/Netflix-Announces-Ten-For-One-Stock-Split/default.aspx ; https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=57651 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000211/ex991_q226.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000212/nflx-20260630.htm . NoSeptemberdatedcatalystestablished; existingpostholidaymonitor30suffices.

Premises1 Compare50daycompletewindows: BTC780,ETH780,SOL590; SMA20>50 differs0days. Prior20closebreakoutdiffersonly1ETHday. 2 Missinghourdays suppress50day signalwindows; includingthose states creates93/54/19differences. Therefore backtestvariantdifferences cannotbe attributedsolelypricefields. 3 WorstADR14daily understatementBTC13.3335% Dec6 2025,ETH14.3289% Dec8,SOL20.7109% Dec5. Daily/rebuiltSOLranges7.25673/9.15225. CurrentSep5 ranges2574.85415/99.92639/6.13383agree; currentSMA20>50all3true. Conclusion adopt separate coverage,signal,range,andexecutionchecks; reject blanketingcurrentdata asbad orassumingmatchingclosevalidatesrisk. Stop/targetbasedon understatedrange is notmeasuredweekendrisk. Noexitstrategytradeauthorizedbythismeasurementcontrol. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars .

Premises from recorded FDA/EMA/sponsor sources: original plant removed; alternate review pending; SMA trial adds treatment to existing SMN therapies; financing partly conditional on approval. First order favorable approval can unlock commercial shipments and optional150m borrowing; adverse review postpones both. Second order launch consumes working capital, supports compliant fill-finish suppliers and adds payer cost alongside existing SMN therapies; approval does not imply replacing nusinersen/risdiplam revenue. Third order net reimbursement, sustained functional benefit and access determine whether revenue covers launch costs and financing claims; repeated delay can force further equity funding. These are causal scenarios, not company-specific earnings forecasts or approval probabilities. Novo owns the original plant, but customer relationship is not evidence of an acquisition or alternate-site compliance. Beneficiaries include patients if useful access expands, lenders receiving interest and compliant suppliers; management benefits from launch optionality. Strong counterargument: removing an already identified CMC obstacle with supply ready could trigger repricing beforeSept30. That possibility supports monitoring, not a calibrated trade. Clinical evidence is156 main plus32 exploratory; do not treat EMAs188 age-summary as a second efficacy sample. Sources https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/isembyld ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/static-files/e4533b5a-14df-4515-bf7b-75b503a36b0d ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1727196/000119312526336732/srrk-20260630.htm ; https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-announces-fda-review-apitegromab-biologics-license . No separate fund: no measured supplier or companion-drug stock edge.

Premises: independently forecast physical variance; hold out outcomes; do not equate physicalvariance orbetterforecastscore to risk-neutraloptionvalue. x=logadjustedclose return. Fixedforecast variance=(252var21+252var63+252EWMA(x²,lambda.94))/3. Train2023–2025; winsorclipbounds from751trainingreturns[-.04953405,.06813260] fixed before2026 comparison; 165heldout next5observedsession mean-squarelabels, trainingevaluationwouldpurge5sessions; no fittedcoefficients. CurrentRV21=.3851876,RV63=.3787668,EWMA=.3769041; blend=.3803027,winsor=.3593251. QLIKE=mean(logf+a/f); winsor-minus-blend -.038909, pairedcircular10-rowblockbootstrap10000 seed2026090604 CI[-.138576,.070907], so noestablishedsuperiority. Blend-minus-RV21 -.178529,3000bootstrapCI[-.375315,-.014350]; overlappinglabelsnotindependenttrades. Rawunadjustedforecast holdoutQLIKE-.252945 illustratesmemoryofsplitartifactevenaftercurrentRVhasrecovered. Train/testdailymeans+.15398%/-.10618%,dailySD2.11683%/2.35143%,excesskurtosis7.215/7.225; top5days18.965%/43.095%totalsquaredreturns. PosthocclassificationFeb27,Apr17,Jul17 of170testdays accounts35.751%variance; eventmean-square.0111585 versusother.00036024,ratio30.975; OLSx²=a+bI(event),b=.0107983,HC1SE.0024770. This was selectedafterextremeinspection: descriptive, notcausal/significanceevidence. Dates verifiedissuerWBDwithdrawalFeb26, earningsApr16/Jul16; notallothereventsclassified. Four-sessionnonoverlap terminalputproxy atS78.25,K72,fixedhypotheticalpremium3andfees.20: trainN187win1.604%mean-$1.1416; testN42win7.143%mean+$7.7724,avgwin150.414,avgloss3.2,10000IIDwindowbootstrapmeanCI[-3.2,28.8344]. Threewinsdominatetest; historicalconstantmoneyness/currentpremiumproxyisNOTactualoptionbacktest. Removingtailsmaydiscardgenuinejumpinsurance, while includingdatedevents mayoverpredictordinaryweek; neitheridentifiesnextweek. Sources venueadjustedstock-bars; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000212/nflx-20260630.htm ; https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2026/Netflix-to-Announce-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; correspondingSecondQuarterrelease. Allocation0.

Adopt data-normalization rule, not a trade. Premises: (1) returns must compare equal share units; (2) option series must follow OCC adjustment terms and dates; (3) both sides need current executable quotes. Collected complete single-page 922 daily IEX bars Jan3 2023–Sep4 2026 independently for adjustment raw/split/all. Raw Nov17 2025 log return -2.310715 versus adjusted -.00812572; full-history annualSD125.707% versus34.338%; raw buyhold-73.465% versus adjusted+165.344%. Split and all closes identical. CurrentRV21 stays38.51876%, equalvarianceblend38.03027% exactly reproduces prior analysis283: correction to the suspicion, split artifacts do NOT explain this recent forecast. OCCNov14memo57651 effectiveNov17 divides old strikes10 and multiplies contractcount10, premiumextension100, deliverable100NFLX shares; NFLXrootunchanged. Old Sep18K1280 calls94.21/99.30 andputs217.67/225.83 retainNov14quotes; their normalizedK128series haveSep4quotes call0/.06 put48.30/50.67. Normalization cannot make oldquotes current. Sep8–25 chain748records,258quotes2025,469within120sofSep4close,21otherolder; adjacentverticalflags9all versus5fresh. Largest$827.20gap mixes pre/postsplitseries. Five remainingflags show timestampfilters are necessary but insufficient: indicativefeedprices are derivatives. Statecash850.99/fund127.65; noholdings. Sources https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=57651 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528025000450/nflx-20251114.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=NFLX&timeframe=1Day&start=2023-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/NFLX?feed=indicative . Counterexamples: newrealjump remainsafteradjustment; fresh syntheticquotescanstillviolateverticals. Valid inference is artifactrejection, notefficiencyproof.

Premises: 1) Sponsor's Aug21 update removes the original plant; no alternate-site approval independently recovered. 2) Direct FDA CRL has facility deficiencies plus labeling/safety work, consistent with a manufacturing-led setback rather than a failed efficacy endpoint. 3) Q2 liquidity and debt observations5212 show approval-dependent financing. Derived static burn25.40m/month; gross liquidity19.37months, or14.65months above a120m covenant assuming no milestone relief and flat burn. Neither is a forecast: launch spending, cash definitions and working capital can change. H1 ATM160.774m exceeded operating burn152.408m. Approximate basic equity6.735bn atSep4IEX55.305; adding disclosed prefunded equivalents gives7.319bn before options/RSUs, using differently dated share counts. Cash292.088m net of principal is not a valuation floor. Conclusion: watch, no numerical approval or run-up edge. Validity: removing one obstacle improves possibilities but cannot establish price expectancy. Soundness: direct records support timing/constraints; alternate acceptance, final label, reimbursement and event probabilities remain missing. Counterexample to bear case: favorable alternate review can unlock launch and150m conditional debt without immediate equity issuance. Counterexample to bull case: another delay consumes cash and preserves financing dependence. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1727196/000119312526336732/srrk-20260630.htm ; https://download.open.fda.gov/crl/CRL_BLA761463_20250922.pdf ; https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-provides-update-global-apitegromab-regulatory .

Premises: (1) QatarEnergy March24 RNS establishes damaged LNG infrastructure and reduced helium output, not September production quantity. (2) LIN Q1 issuer transcript says85–90%contracted;Q2July31CFO reportspositiveheliumdollarcontributionbutdislocationcosts dilutepercentage margin,whileheliumguidanceunchanged. (3) APDQ2April30slides ~90%contracted3–5years,primarilyUSsources,cavernand~500ISOcontainers,FY25heliumsalesHSD%;July30Q3bridgehelium-$0.07EPSdespitepositiveelectronicsvolume,annualheadwind~3%. (4) AirLiquideJuly28H1sourceinterruptionhurtmerchantvolumes;EMEA+0.2%vs+1.9%excludinghelium. Conclusionvalid:physicalscarcitydoesnotuniformlybenefitdistributors;LINhasqualitativecurrentpositivecapture,APDhasreliability/contractgrowthbutnegativeYoYheliumbridge,AirLiquidehasvolumeexposure. DoNOTequatemargin%dilutionwithlostprofit,norAPDnegativeYoYwithnegativeabsoluteheliumprofit. Soundness:issuerdisclosurebiasandmissingheliumEBITdollars/contractrepricingschedules preventvaluationedge. Counterexamples:priceescalatorscanworkdespitecontractterms;newcostlyreplacementvolumecanraiserevenueanddilutemarginwhileaddingcashprofit;volumegrowthcanoffsetlowerrealizedprices. Sources: https://assets.linde.com/-/media/global/corporate/corporate/documents/investors/quarterly-earnings/investor-call-transcript-2q26.pdf ; https://investors.airproducts.com/static-files/873bd766-037f-459f-8a09-ac5bff2165b1 ; https://www.airliquide.com/sites/airliquide.com/files/2026-07/air-liquide-pr-h1-with-an-acceleration-in-the-second-quarter-air-liquide-combines-growth-with-continuous-performance-improvement.pdf . Detailedoriginsobs5198–5210. Startstateconcentratedsupply/interruptedlogistics;goalstatepositiveincrementalFCFandvalidatedstockpayoff;bindingconstraintrepricingnetofreplacementcostsanddeliveredvolume. Businesswatchonly,notbuy.

Premises1 Completed paginated2024-Jan1 to2026-Sep5 history contains23492hours each BTC/ETH,4absent versus23496expected; SOL17761hours beginsAug26 2024, notJan1. Compare976/976/737 complete24hourdays; no forward fill. 2 Max daily/open divergence6.2064/7.9068/10.2992%,allDec2 2025; volume discrepancies exceed1% on12/11/10days. Large shared clusterNov23-Dec18 2025. Median open/high/low/volume differences0. 3 Direct us endpoint Dec2 reproduces daily discrepancy; independently aggregatedminute/hour OHLCV equal to floating precision, Coinbase opens within.022% of intraday opens versus6.19/7.93/10.32%daily. 4 RecentAug1-Sep5 36days all3assets864hours each: open/high/low/volume reconcile, maxcloseBTC.002113%,ETH/SOL0. Coinbaseclosemax.02558/.04755/.06659%. Conclusion strongest evidence favors localized daily historical aggregation defect, not universal bad current tape or proxy-only failure. Soundness: both Alpaca endpoints same origin; Coinbase independent exchange has differentquotes/trades, so not executable Alpaca groundtruth. Sparse minute rows may benoactivity. SuffixscanDec2 late-day17:28/17:45/17:42matchesextremesbutnotallfields; reset/corruption plausible notproven. No exact causal explanation from primarydocs/search. This improves prior257 bylocalizing/upstreamreproducingproblem. Source https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles ; correspondingETH-USD/SOL-USD endpoints; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-crypto-data-1 .

Numberedpremises: 1. Fundflat,nopendingorders;twooperatorliquidationwinscannotestimatealossdistribution. 2. All13155currentUSdirectoryentriesattempted,12646snapshots,1908freshliquidnonETFscreen;509omissionsnamed. 35nonUSplus3UScomparators and12cryptoproxiesexpandcoverage;notwholeworld/OTC,cryptoYahooSep4stale. 3. PrimaryfilingsidentifyAEHR/COHUtestingdemand,AXTpermitexposure,Lynascontractedfloorandowncapexinflation,Maerskratesandcosts;NXrallyrelatescostrecovery/multiplesources,notprovenscarcity. RENDER/AKTGPUdemanddoesnotestablishnettokenrent. 4. PreregisteredSMA10/50,nextopen,2023–24train/2025–Sep4holdout,fees/slippage/sweeps:8selectedholdoutmeanCIsincludezero;NXnet-36.18%,4closedlosses. OnlyMUfreshcross,wholeprice1015>212.75cap. Price-onlytrenddiagnosticsdonotvalidate15minstops,gaplosses,foreignFXorvenueeligibility. Conclusionvalid:zeroproposals/size0;physicalthesesremainwatch-only. Soundnesslimits:currentlisting/survivorshipselection,tinyNs,IEXcoverage,biasedissuerstatements,unverifiedFujikuracurrentfinancials,unmeasuredSeptembercustomerorders/fixtures. Counterargument:waitingmaymissscarcityrally;replycostofmissingisnotmeasuredpositiveedgeandquarterKellypointestimatesareunstable. Strongerprimaryevidenceupdatesbusinesspriorbutnotexecutioneligibility. Bindingconstraintindependentnetpayoffwithrealisticexits,notcashavailabilityoroperatorneed. Riskbudget8.5099andpositioncap212.7475cannotmakeunvalidatedsizepositive. Allanalysiskindsrecorded,canonicalarchivesreadbackverified;noinventedstop/target. Existingjobs12/16/18retained,16alreadycoversAEHR/AXTI;AEHRresearchmonitor41addedwithbothbranches. Noeventbefore04UTCnextrunrequiresorder. PriorGEV/tanker/proteintestsnotretuned. Sourcesanddetailsinanalyses230–238,243,249–250,263–264,268,272–273,277,288–289 andobs5175–5181;data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt .

Premises: 1. MUFY2025filingdetailslimited/solesourcesandqualificationdelays despitegenerallymultiplematerials suppliers;June24Q3results showstrongprofitability butnotSeptemberincrementalallocation. 2. MPFY2025filingdatescessationofChinasalestoJuly2025 andspecifiesmagnetvolume/quality obligations;August6Q2records840tNdPrproduction,1006tsales,revenue108.5m and17.6mseparatepricesupport,adjustednetloss2.1m. Conclusionvalid:beneficiariesofscarcitycanstillbeconstrainedbyinputs,rampandcontractterms. RejectassumptionthatMPsupportincomeequalsproductsalesorthatoldShengheconcentrationcontinuesunchanged. Who benefits:qualifiedmemory/materialproducersandtheirlimitedqualifiedsuppliers;customersbearhighercostandmayredesign/re-source,whichcanlatereroderents. Counterexample:morephysicaloutputunprofitableafterqualification/capex;positivecurrentmarginsnormalizewithnewcapacity. Neithernamehasindependentlyvalidatednetexitpayoffs;MUalonehascurrentSMAcrossbut0wholeaffordableunder212.75capandfractionalexitsuntested;MPcrossfalse. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312525000028/mu-20250828.htm ; https://investors.micron.com/financials/quarterly-results/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1801368/000180136826000008/mp-20251231.htm ; https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/MP-Materials-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx .

Mandated CLI executed SMA10/50 --days1344 on sixUS names before anyproposal;922bars each. Full-period native outputs: [{"symbol":"AEHR","returnPct":40.0021602846025,"drawdownPct":74.36484400892152,"winRate":25,"sample":12,"buyHold":368.3410263372251},{"symbol":"COHU","returnPct":44.44058175393799,"drawdownPct":40.8719973086827,"winRate":35.714285714285715,"sample":14,"buyHold":59.754369390647135},{"symbol":"AXTI","returnPct":992.4277589978756,"drawdownPct":74.57548265618689,"winRate":18.181818181818183,"sample":11,"buyHold":1308.4571428571428},{"symbol":"MP","returnPct":58.778171621743255,"drawdownPct":52.36997291189489,"winRate":40,"sample":10,"buyHold":125.53807947019865},{"symbol":"MU","returnPct":334.5504196438671,"drawdownPct":49.117752620514274,"winRate":42.857142857142854,"sample":14,"buyHold":1915.0883462378401},{"symbol":"NX","returnPct":-5.087252629102723,"drawdownPct":52.15464592547335,"winRate":50,"sample":10,"buyHold":-4.556856187290981}]. These are control runs, not holdouts and not the same model as preregistered note246 next-open costed vectorbt windows. Native control's signal timing/corporate-action handling differ; do not blend native wins with holdout returns to size. Governingtests use2023–24train/2025–Sep4holdout,5bpfee+10bpslip eachside,10/20stress,training-only3x3sweep; no parameter chosen from holdout. Canonical CLI JSON and independent audit in227partNXarchive,decodedSHAfb6f0085bae7adadf109f9f22ae7aae7da5c635b87657ecc0aa3b743304ea3bd. Zero authorization from full-period performance. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises: 1. Aug26FY26release reports revenue+75.72% againstcostsales+37.22%, mixed-productASP80.7AUD/kg and positive222.4mNPAT. 2. JAREfirm5000t/year atUSD110/kgfloor is credible contractual downsideprotection, roughly68.15%of pastannualNdPrsold;firmHREofftake50% also securesdemand. 3. Jul22report saysHREexpansionbudget+63.33%,own water/ore-quality disruptions andnon-China procurementcosts;netshareissuanceaccountsarithmeticallyfor87.69%ofcashincrease. Valid inference: outside-China diversification rents reach this producer, but restrictions raise its capex/inputcosts too. Unsound stronger inference rejected: all currentvolume earns floor, allcash organicallygenerated, or historicaloutagecontinues today. Start: scaledlight/HREproductionwithrampissues; goal:profitablecontractdelivery; bindingconstraint purifiedthroughput andcostatcustomerqualification. Firstorder floorandpremiummargins; secondorder reinvestment/capexandcustomerfunding; thirdorder morequalifiedsupply cancompresspremiums whilefloorpartlyprotectsLynas. Strongbear: floor/capex commitments anddilution eatshareholderreturn; customer concentration/actualdeliveries needfullcontractreview. Prior increased on physicalrentcapture, unchanged on tradability: selectedfour-tradeholdoutCI[-1.9763,52.8206]% includeszero,currentcrossfalse,foreignvenue/FXunverified. Analysis237 retained,authorizedsize0. Sources https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/03126367.pdf ; https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/03113064.pdf .

Start state:49.14fundcash,850.99equity,0open/pendinglots; goal repeatable net gains before dated catalysts; bindingconstraint independently validated executable edge, not affordability. Numbered premises:1) NasdaqTrader exchange directories contain13154 non-test symbols; syntax-limited price retrieval12633 symbols yielded12436priced but only8066Sep4fresh;29weekday calendar calls produced346 estimated leads,302fresh matches. Listings are not a full OTC universe and calendar estimates never confirm events. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt and https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/earnings?date=2026-09-14 ; all source rows/code in archive note279.2) HITI Sep14AMC verified https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ but Aug4 preliminaryguidance alreadydisclosed growth https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/ . Preregistered notes249/250,backtest244,statistics246:fixedT-3open/T-1close,train8/test11,5bpfees+10bpslip eachside,holdout3.75545%,DD8.65185%,wins63.6364%,avgwin1.50247%,avgloss1.65581%;rawquarterKelly5.89038% but confidencegate sizes0. Mean.354006% perevent and total3.75545% over11 historical events are not annual forecasts;stress30bpall-in eachside leaves.38739% total.95%bootstrapmean[-.73259,1.53296]%,SPYexcessmean-.03264%; one matching preannounced event cannot validate regime. Counterexample to negative view: stronger margins/growth could sustain momentum, but that is not quantified independent payoff.3) HAIN earnings confirmed but organicvolume weakness/debt complicate recovery; BFRI exactSep28PDUFA in https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226022875/ex99-1.htm coexists with cash4.7m,goingconcern and XLrestrictions in https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037834/form10-q.htm ; price strength cannot establish gap-aware edge. Fundamentals226/267,consequences232,technical247,simulation248 recorded.4) NKE/GIS/GlobalData/Evertz/TSM calendars yield research candidates, not tested trades;6foreignlistings across5markets have unvalidated venue/FX;10crypto pairs are a bounded screen, not entire universe. SOL larger-transactions exactSep9claim unverified; current primary schedule conflicts and rentphasealreadybegan; analysis261 rejects falseprecision.5) Directfinalaudit observation5106:20armedmonitors,nonebefore04UTC,0open/pending;new38/39/40,5overflowreviewscap-rejected andpreserved via testedjob24. Conclusion:valid implication under predeclared edgegate is noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; soundness limited bysmalldependent samples,partialvenueprices,preannouncementregime andnonexecutable dailyfills. These limitations reduce confidence ratherthanprove negativefuture returns. Issuers benefit from growth narratives, holders fromre-rating, financiers fromcapital demand; growth->workingcapital->potentialfinancing is recorded insteadof assumedcashcreation. Next:collect matched futureevent observations andfreshprimaryfilings; preregister anynewNKE/GIS study beforepayoffs,verify foreigneligibility first. Do not retune failed prior rules. Complete231part22filearchive hashverified;lessons110-112. ActualCLIcachedreplay280 is diagnostic without OOS and cannotauthorize trade. All sizeszero;fundcap49.14,accountpositioncap212.75,riskbudget8.5099 never loosened forfundingpressure.

1. Quant is entirely in cash, with no queued orders or holdings to review for exits. Three own closed trades were operator liquidations and give no positive Kelly edge. 2. Broad work covered13,155 current US directory entries,12,685 returned snapshots,2,578 liquid histories and2,472 sufficient-history factor rows. After heuristic common-stock/fund filters1,704 remained; missing470 and delisted-history gaps are explicit. Foreign47/48 sampled names and36USDcrypto pairs were screened, not claimed as complete worldlisting coverage. 3. Primary research identified TXNM cash-merger risk, WOLF cancelled/replacement-equity discontinuity, Fortis regulatory/financing/dilution constraints, RBC credit losses, Allianz earnings-definition differences and crypto mechanism mismatches. No current screen winner chooses the historical experiment. 4. Frozen defensive wrapper adaptation tested27 variants with vectorbt and independent cash ledger. Completed Jan2023-Aug2026 SPLV returned-15.83031%, DD18.75841%,44trades,p29.54545%,W1.32691%,L1.10213%,mean-.38446%;95%block CI[-.70870,-.03333]%. USMV-4.41428%,EFAV-8.06220%,EEMV+.89197%; EEMV CI crosseszero andstress-29.04475%. Primary stressed-40.80519%; lower2bpcost doesnotrescueprimary. 5. Passive lower volatility is observed, but marketmodel intercepts do not establish alpha and mandatory swing exits fail. Right-censored September cohorts separated, daily adjusted fills are only screening approximations, not15minute/profitmanagement/cashdividend validation. Conclusion: no PROPOSE, EXIT, ADJUST or FUND. Actual size0; retain245.69cash. All statistical, fundamental, technical, simulation, consequence, strategy andbacktestwork recorded; lessons104-106 apply next run. Current country/newsjobs remain informational; no eligible dated catalyst or required action before04UTC, so no newmonitor/job. WatchlistFTS/RY/ALV.DE; TXNMonly future separately registeredmerger-risk research; WOLFexcludeduntilentitlementmapping. Do not retune inspectedwindows. Sources https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/White-Papers/Understanding-Defensive-Equity.pdf ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/acquisition.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; primaryissuerlinks inobservations3451-3457. Archive656parts acknowledged/latest500verified; remainingreadbacklimitedbyquerycap,notmissingwrites. Finished approximately21minutes within43planned/45hard, no spending pressure used tojustifyrisk.

Start cash850.99, fund127.65, holdings/orders0; goalrepeatablelongcall/putbasehits; bindingconstraints executabledata, empiricallyvalidatedoptionpayoff and fullpremium1%equity8.5099. Premises:1 independentpriceaboveaskpluscosts;2 executablefreshquotesanddeliverables;3 optionhistoricalwin/loss supportingquarterKelly. Rejectifanyfails. Census13155listingmetadata/8056Sep4IEXbars;43newinternational/sector/commodity/crypto-linkedroots plus20newliquidityleaders.63completepaginatedindicativechains,Sep8-Oct16 expiries,53617contracts. Independentlyprice52360 across62roots: SPCX59bars excludes1094contracts,remaining163 failquoteprice/formatconditions.4940ask<=.08,1552positivebid,41basepositive,0stresspositive. Restrictingquoteswithin120secondsofSep4close yields49946priced/1503affordablepositivebid/40basepositive/0stress; only1015alsohaveIV/delta. NonecurrentSundayexecutable. Model BSM C=S*exp(-qT)*N(d1)-K*exp(-rT)*N(d2),P=K*exp(-rT)*N(-d2)-S*exp(-qT)*N(-d1),d1=[ln(S/K)+(r-q+sigma²/2)T]/(sigma*sqrtT),d2=d1-sigma*sqrtT. S=Sep4IEXclose,K/type/expiryfromOCCsymbol. Base r4%,q0,sigma=sqrt(mean(RV21²,RV63²,EWMA²)), fixednooption-IVfitting. Both ACT365expiry16ETclock andtrading-session/252 clocks,excludingSep7holiday. Stress=minpricesacrossbothclocks,sigma=.8minvol,r0/6%,q0/4%; thisisadversescenarioNOTfairvaluebound,especiallycryptoanddiscretedividends. Netgap=fair-ask-.002,allowance0.20/contract; exitspreadseparatelysimulation282. American500stepCRRchecksSNAP/MARA/NFLX/ETHA/NIOallremainnegativeaftercosts, bestSNAP-.009745/share. SNAPOct2K4.5put bid.01ask.03,S5.48,forecast65.457%,BSMsession.059441,Americanstress.022255versus.032cost. MARASep18K8.5put S11.30,bid.01ask.02,forecast96.768%,session.045066,Americanstress.010288versus.022cost. 162vertical/392calendar/1645conditionalparityflagsareunsynchronizeddiagnostics,notarbitrage. LargestNFLXflagsuseNov14 2025quotesagainstSep4 2026underlying; rejectoldquotesbeforeinvestigatingprofit. Dividend0–4%parityenvelope unsuitableforBITOmonthlycashflows; Americanexercise/deliverablesnotfullyresolved. Providerdocsindicativequotesmodified; priorOPRA/history403 notrepokedwithoutchangedentitlement. CurrentSep1fees support0.14baseovernightroundtriponecontract beforepartnercharges;0.20allowanceremainsassumption. ConditionalMARApositiveMCtailmeanfailslowvolscenario andisnotempiricaledge; underlyingbacktests240-242cannotvalidateputs. Noactualoptionpayoffsample, soquarterKellyandproposedsize0. Subcentstoptriggersmightbeallowedbyvenue: noassertedprohibition, but.01bid/.01stopalreadytouchesbid andnextpennybidcanbezero; fullpremiumstillrisk. Existingmonitor30/job22handlepostholidaydata; monitor36reviewsETHAsplit. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SNAP?feed=indicative ; correspondingperrootchainsandstock-bars; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data ; https://files.alpaca.markets/disclosures/library/BrokFeeSched.pdf ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf . Soundconditionaldecision, incompletefairvalueproof; noassertionofwholemarketefficiency.

Premises:1 optionexitmustrecoveraskpluscostsatsellbid;2 targetmustfitmeasuredrangeandholdingwindow;3 positivepennystopbelowcurrentbid isneededforanexecutableplan, andstopdoesnotreducefullpremiumrisk. Sep4dailyIEXindicators: SNAPclose5.48,ATR14.31643=5.77%price,1.35%aboveSMA20 and9.54%aboveSMA50,5sessionreturn+.55%; MARA11.30,ATR.97929=8.67%,8.07%aboveSMA20 but1.21%belowSMA50,5session+6.00%. ETHA18.53,ATR.76679=4.14%,9.96%aboveSMA20/23.51%aboveSMA50; EWZ37.855,ATR.86107=2.27%,7.15%/6.83%above20/50. ATR14 ismeanmax(high-low,abs(high-prevclose),abs(low-prevclose)), notforecaststandarddeviation. Mixingpositiveprice-momentumandspeculativebearputtailrequiresameasurededge; theseindicatorssupplynone. SNAPOct2$4.5put ask.03bid.01; calibratedIV five-sessionrepricing givesbid.02038afteroneATRdecline,stilllosing; twoATRbid.07167 onlyconditionalmodeltarget. MARASep18$8.5put bid.01ask.02 alsohasnopositivepennybidstopbelowcurrentbid. Available1552affordablepositive-bidcontractshavemedian50%askspread andknownmedianabsdelta.01605;518missingIV/greeks furtherweakenfeeddiagnostics. Fullpremiumcap8.5099rulesoutone.09contractbeforefeesregardlessofstop; maximumprice.08onlyscreeninggate. No positionsheld soR/targetfraction/horizonreviewreturnszero; noexits/adjustmentsrequired. Rejectbasehitsclaimedfromlowpricedtailswithoutfreshrealquotesandoptionhistory. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SNAP,MARA,ETHA,EWZ&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex and respective /data/option-chain/<symbol>?feed=indicative .

Premises:1 forecastphysicalvarianceindependentlyofoptionIV;2 evaluatenextperiodvariancebeforetrustingvaluation;3 bettervarianceforecastdoesnotidentifyrisk-neutralprices orlongpremiumprofit. For62roots with>=100adjusteddailyIEXbars throughSep4, x_t=ln(close_t/close_t-1). RV21/RV63=samplestd(x)*sqrt252; EWMAvariance v_t=.94v_t-1+.06*x_t², initializedfirstsquaredreturn; annualEWMA=sqrt252v_t. Fixedforecast sigma=sqrt((RV21²+RV63²+EWMA²)/3). No fittedcoefficientsorparameteroptimization; trainpreDec20 2025 (five-sessionlabelpurge), holdoutJan2026; predict next5observed-sessions meansquaredlogreturn*252. QLIKE=mean(logforecastvariance+realizedvariance/forecastvariance), lowerbetter; overlapping5daylabels mean165holdoutobservationsnot165independenttrades. BlendbeatsRV21alonein50/62roots, notmultiplicity-adjustedsignificance orclaimedoptionedge. SNAPforecast65.457%, stress50.445%; testQLIKE.319948 versusRV21.564146, realized/predictedvariance1.11539. MARAforecast96.768%, stress74.220%, QLIKE.843535vs.866474,ratio1.06844. ETHA53.343%/.410587stress, QLIKE.137118vs.371150,ratio.96578. EWZ23.902%, QLIKE-1.63049vs-1.57624,ratio.99352. Everyrootinputanddenominatorrecorded. Stress sigma=.8min(RV21,RV63,EWMA) isdeliberateadverseassumption, notconfidencebound. Currentlisteduniverse andIEXsamplingcausecoveragebias; crisisvariance,jumps,ETFdividendclock andriskpremiuminvalidateBSMconstantvol. SPCXonly59bars excludesits1094contractsfromvaluation;163morecontracts haveinvalidpriceconditionsorunparsedstandardformat. Decisionretainforecastasresearchbenchmarkonly, noempiricaloptionwin/loss andzeroallocation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&start=2023-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex .