Stats

Premises: 1.TXNM Sep4price58,offer61.25 gives3.25USD/5.60345% gross spread. Sensitivity uses break40/45/50/55,180/270/365days,hurdle0/4/6% and either no dividends or assumedcontinued.4225quarterly prorated. These are assumptions, not estimated probabilities or standalone valuations. At break50,270days and4%annual alternative return, requiredsuccess probability87.1697% withoutdividends or76.1309% with1.25014USD assumeddividends. Costed win7.59741%/loss11.89916% in dividendcase; no empiricalp means actualsize0. Acquisitioncashsettlement hasno modeledsellfee; faileddealmarketexitcosted15bpeachway. 2.Numpy100000Bernoulli paths per36p/break/horizon scenarios,seed90605,check analyticalmeans; assumed60/75/90%success produceswidelydifferentKelly. Unknownp cannotbecomethemarket-impliedthresholdbyassertion. 3.Wrapper19quarterlypayoffs,circular3-cohort blocks,10000paths,seed90604:MRGR mean-.32820%,95%CI[-.50152,-.17937];MNA-.26958%,CI[-.59914,.05320]. QuarterKellyclipped0both. Hypothetical25%fundallocation for4quarters (notproposed) MRGR5/50/95percentileterminal-.61930/-.31185/-.03280%;MNA-.88974/-.21603/.32215%. These stationarysmall-sampleblockscannotboundunseencrashes. 4.Own3operatorliquidations p33.33%,W7.93994%,L5.26143%,mean-.86097%,Kelly0; notnaturalstrategyoutcomes. NeverpoolthesePEADtradeswithmergerdeals. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_trades fundquant ; https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/acquisition.aspx ; https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/txnm-energy-board-declares-quarterly-common-stock-dividend-302699014.html .

Start235.86cash,noholdingsorqueuedorders; goalrepeatableprofit; bindingconstraint independentlyvalidatednetedge, nowdistinguishedfromdataquality. Premise1 Dec2025dailyADRunderstateshourlyby13.33/14.33/20.71%; current36dayOHLCVreconciles. Premise2 fixedcontrolhourlyholdouts-2.42/-13.14/-34.62%,N3/3/4, noeligibleallocation. ChainA historicalrangeunderstatement -> stop/targetcloserandfixedriskpositionslarger -> churn/fees/realizedlossdifferentfromsimulation. ChainB blanketdatarejection -> validcurrentinformationdiscarded -> missedfutureopportunities; prospectivequalitycollector25narrowsratherthandeniesaccess. ChainC usingpositivefullperiodCLI -> deploymentwithoutvalidatedholdout -> capitaldrawdownandshorterrunway. Whobenefits: liquidityproviders/venuefromturnover; fundfromcleanermeasurementonlyifnetedgeeventuallyexists. Strongcounterargument all3currentSMA20>50andBTCsmallpositivearithmeticexpectancycouldsupporttrend: responseBTCnaivequarterKelly$2.88below$10minimum,negativecompoundedholdout,threeexitsandterminalwinnercannotvalidate. Factsendsatmeasurements; consequencechainsconditionalnotcausalestimates. No moneyshortfalltargetextension. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars ; https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles .

100000numpy paths,seed60604,10sessions; sample two5-day blocks from latest252dailySRRKclose returns including tails. Diagnostic exits at first sampled close crossing +2ADR(+6.8113%) or -1ATR(-3.6738%), otherwiseday10; fees5/slip10bp eachside. This approximates neither continuous fills nor15minutevenue execution. Inject independent-30%adversejump atuniformday with assumedwindowprobability0/1/5/10%; it matters onlybeforemodeledexit. NoeventhazardestimatedfromN1, noapprovaljumpmodel, existinghistoricaltailscanoverlapinjectedstress. Means1.4974/1.3593/.7600/.0374%,win47.536/47.288/46.265/45.027%;5thpercentiles-7.4857/-7.5778/-9.5225/-14.2296%. At10%assumedhazard,4.603%paths lose>$8.5099whenhypotheticallydeployingfull49.14. Evenzero-addedhazardhasovershoot becausechecksareatdailyclose. These are conditional stress outputs, notforecastwinprobabilitiesorapprovedsizing. A30%jumpalone on49.14loses14.742USD>account1%8.5099; atmost28.3663USDwouldmeetthatparticularjump-onlybudget,notaguaranteeagainstworsejumps. Full-losscap8.5099alsofailswhole-shareaffordability. Empiricalmomentumedge303negative;quarterKelly0overridespositivebootstrappedpathmean. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SRRK&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . Facts end atbarreturns; allhazard/jumpparametersareexplicitassumptions.

Premises: 1.No holdings or queued orders; R progress and time held do not apply. Sep4 rawTXNM58.00, SMA50=57.458,SMA200=58.434,ATR20=.267,ADR20=.256. Above50/below200 with small ranges is not a deal probability. Illustrative ATRstop57.733/target58.4005 gives1.5R and1.56daily ranges, but an adverse ruling can skip that stop. Prior Avangrid termination announcedJan2 2024; feed opens38.64 versus prior41.60 (-7.1154%), closes39.11 (-5.9856%). One historical failure illustrates gap mechanism, not frequency estimate. 2.TXNM median20-session dollar volume46.52m and3whole shares affordable174USD; a hypothetical break to50 loses24USD on3shares, above8.5099account riskcap. 3.MRGR45.4816,ATR.117475,ADR.073625;1.5ATRtarget2.39daily ranges, already beyond preferredone-to-two rangeguidance. Last20median volume792shares/35987.89USD,3zero-rangebars; later275/1169zero-rangebars(23.52%),training946/1509(62.69%). Small reported volatility partly reflects sparseprints. MNA36.68,median dollarvolume833046.14,target1.60ranges,butbacktestfails. Conclusion: price levels and affordability cannot override failed edge and unbounded gap exposure. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1634997/000119312524000160/d677779dex991.htm ; https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/mrgr .

Premises: 1.Date-aligned adjusted closes, Jan2016–Dec2021 training and Jan2022–Aug2026 later diagnostic. Later1168 close-to-close returns; passive MRGR20.68199%, MNA15.04870%, BIL19.32620%, SPY70.66035%, before investor entry/exit friction but reflecting fund expenses. MRGR CAGR4.13930% versus BIL3.88576%; not a large current premium. 2.Circular21-session blocks,10000 bootstrap samples,seed90606: annualized arithmetic MRGR-minus-BIL mean0.31483%,95%CI[-2.96955,3.59355]; MNA mean-.66184%,CI[-4.12471,2.98204]. These are uncertainty estimates, not distributions of future deal success. 3.Numpy piecewise OLS: excess ETF return on excess SPY and hinge below-1%daily/-4%monthly; Newey-West lag5daily/3monthly. Training monthly MRGR normal beta.0682,tail.2776; MNA.0372/.6376. Later monthly MRGR normal-.0404,tail.2211,alpha t1.20; MNA.0234/.2004,alpha t.13. Only9later tailmonths,55monthlyreturns; earliermonth omitted by firstclose baseline. Daily intercepts also insignificant later. 4.Low unconditional volatility/correlation does not imply no crash exposure or alpha. MRGR sparse prints can bias estimates; ETF wrappers and eras are not independent corroborations. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; original nonlinear-model motivation https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicago.edu/dist/d/2771/files/2020/09/JF_riskarb-1.pdf . Complete8regressions,8passive rows andCIs archived. Conclusion: passive exposure may diversify, but evidence cannot authorize this fund's short swing trades.

Question: doNFLXcheaptailsreflectmispricingorreturn/contractartifacts? Answer: bothdistinctphenomenamustbeseparated. Numberedpremises:1 executablefreshquotesandOCC-normalizeddeliverables;2 independentfairvalueaboveaskplusfeesandbidexitcosts;3 empiricalorvalidatedoptionpayoffwithpositivesmallpositionedge;4 fullpremium<=1%equityandcap. P1failsindicativefeedandoldseries; P2onlyconditionalbase/winsorpricespositiveandall53affordablefailspecifiedlowvolstress; P3failsnoactualoptionhistoryandplannedexitMCnegative; P4affordabilityalonecanpass$3putbutdoesnotrescueotherpremises. Thereforecash. Validity: allgatesnecessary underthismandate, anyfailureimpliesnosize. Soundness: directlymeasuredsplit/quotesandconditionalmodels supportrejection; noassertionoftrueriskneutralfairvalueorwholemarketefficiency. Counterarguments: adjusted38.03%forecastsurvivesaudit, lowvolscenarioarbitrarynotprovedbound, winsorcanremoveinsuranceevents, physicaltailproxytestmean+$7.77. Rewriteconclusionaccordingly: uncertainty/executionandbasehitfailure, notprovenoverpricing. Currenthistoryselection(NFLXchosenfrompriorpositiveflags),IEXcoverage,3profitableproxywindowsandposthoceventclassificationlimitinference. Priorindicativegapsprobablynotexecutablequalitativeonly; nofabricatedBayesianprobability. Evidencewhichwouldchangesize: entitledsynchronizedbidaskhistory,verifiedfees/deliverablesandindependentheldoutoptionpayoffswithnetedgeconfidenceabovezero; rerunownmodelandquarterKellythencapwholecontractsbyfullpremium. $0.20roundtripassumedallowance,actualpartnerfeesunverified. 1000stepAmericanchecksfailedadversecase; 15min-gridMCstop.01target.09hasmean-.8449/- .9723/-1.3830at3vols,quarterKelly0. Noordersperrole; noneproposed. Existingmonitor30Sep8 13:50UTC andjob22alreadyrequestfreshfeed/model/historygates, nochangebefore06UTCnextrunandnonewduplicatejob. NoSeptemberdatedNFLXeventestablished; noinventedcatalystmonitor. Researchsaturatedoncorporateactionandmodelquestion; unresolvedactualOPRA/history,exactfees,NYcloseclosurevariance,stochasticIV andcompleteeventclassificationexplicitlydeferred. Evidenceanalyses295,296,299,300,301 andsimulation/consequencesrecords; sources https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=57651 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/NFLX?feed=indicative ; adjustedstock-bars; issuerQ2SECfilings. Retain127.65fundcash.

Premises: a quotationaltransformationdoesnotcreatecash; a longlegcannotlockarelativegapwithouttheforbiddenshortleg; cashmustsurvivefullpremiumloss. Startallcash850.99,mispricing127.65; goalrepeatablebasehits,bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutablelongoptionexpectancy. First-order split dividespersharestock/strikeunits10 andcreates10contractsperoldcontract; ignoringitproducesfalserealizedvolandverticalflags. Second-order researchsystemsrankthoseflags asoutliersandmayoverweightstalecontracts; issuerbenefitclaimedemployeeaccessibility, liquidityproviderscanearnspreadwithoutconvergencepromises. Third-order underlong-onlyvenue buyingapparentlycheaplegretainsdirectional/thetarisk; fivefreshindicativeinversions donotproveprofitandcapitalcanexpireworthless. Separateeventchain: WBDwithdrawal/terminationfee changesNetflixcashandfundingneeds; competingPSKYbearsitsowntransactionobligations; subsequentNetflixstockjumpelevatesphysicalvariancestatistics, whichcaninflateunrelatedordinaryweekputvaluation if modeledasstationarysymmetricdiffusion. Thatlaststepisinference,notproveneventcausality. Counterexample: realfuturejumpcouldmakeputprofitableevenafterartifactremoval, so rejectiondoesnotassertalloptionsfair; untilfrequency/bidaskreturnsmeasured,size0. Monthly349.01shortfallchangesneitherpayoutdistributionnor8.5099fullpremiumlimit. No holdings/exits/adjustments. Sources https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=57651 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000212/nflx-20260630.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/NFLX?feed=indicative ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data .

Premises: evaluateplannedbidexits,notonlyterminalfairvalue; usephysicalpathsindependentofthemarkIV; allscenarioresultsconditionaluntilvalidatedagainstactualoptionhistory. FixedNFLXSep11K72put S78.25,Fridaybid.02ask.03,4remainingtradingsessions; midcalibratedsessionIV32.94478%,rate4%,q0. Initialterminal2-sessionGBM withfixedIV/halfspread.005 andfees.20percontract givesblendphysicalvol38.03027%win16.93%,avgwin18.2765,avgloss2.9420,mean+.6503; trainingwinsorvol35.93251%mean-.04315,lowvol30.15233%mean-1.54882. Positiveunboundedtailmeanisnotbase-hitvalidation. Explicitexitdiagnostic: 1.5ATR14decline=3.4575underlyingpoints over2sessions givesBSMbid.091519,roundtargetdown.09; stop.01belowinitialbid.02. Targetnetprofit5.80versusfullpremium+assumedfees3.20=1.8125RR. Notanorder. NumPyseed2026090605,100000paths,52equal15minute-likegridsteps over2/252years; commonnormaldrawsforallvolscenarios, dlogS=-.5sigma²dt+sigma√dtZ. RemainingTdecreases4/252to2/252; modeledbid=max(BSM-.005,0). Firstbid<=.01stopor>=.09target exitsatmodeledobservedbid, othersatend. Blendwin16.382%,avgwin7.399572,avgloss2.460156,mean-.844935; stop83.514%,target16.252%,time.234%. Winsorwin15.161%,mean-.972319; lowwin11.074%,mean-1.383048. qKelly=max(0,(p-(1-p)/(avgwin/avgloss))/4)=0allscenarios. This matchesneitherhistoricaloptionliquiditynoractualclosurevariance: continuousvariancegridcompressesovernight,IV/spreadfixed,noovernightjump/stochasticIV/latency/Americanpathmodel. Favorableovershootfillsassumed,notpromised. Stopsdonotboundfullpremiumrisk; onecontract3+feesaffordablebutedgezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/NFLX?feed=indicative ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=NFLX&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex . Reject, donotremoveexitstoaccommodateoptimisticmean.

RequiredCLIrun SMA20/50days979 returnedBTC+52.1948%,DD38.3724%,win33.333%,N12; ETH+75.4890%,DD46.9620%,win50%,N8; SOL-37.4426%,DD67.0018%,win37.5%,N8. BTC/ETH980bars,SOL742 includepartialSep6. Localbars.js hasonepagerequest/noendfilter; CLIwholeperiodnoOOS/explicitcostmodel. Notnumericallyequivalentvectorbtholdout306-308. Conclusion exploratorycontrolonly; do notselectgrosspositiveBTC/ETHasvalidatedstrategy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest/bars.js .

Premises1 Fixedcontrol306-308 hourlypayoffs BTCN3p1/3,W21.3586%,L10.2452%; ETHN3p1/3,W32.5817%,L18.3817%; SOLN4p.25,W7.9297%,L14.4321%. 2 Plug-inquarterKelly BTC.33874%equity, ETH/SOL0. BTCnaive notional$2.88 is below$10cryptominimum; uncertainty gate independentlyzero. 3 NumPyseed20260906 20kIIDbootstrapmeans95%ranges BTC[-14.1482,21.3586]%,ETH[-28.8701,32.5817]%,SOL[-25.2149,4.4192]%; these tiny-sampleempiricalintervalsarenotcalibratedconfidence. Conditional20trade10%equityexposurescenariosfrom850.99endmedians852.80/825.07/711.47; lossfrequencies48.685/62.845/99.885%. BTCempiricalmedianpositivecannotcancelnegativefullallocationcompoundreturnorwideuncertainty. IIDassumptionomitsregime/serialdependence; forcedterminalwinnernotnaturalexit;20tradesnotmonthlyforecast. 4 No calibratedpositiveedge => actualsize0before212.7475positioncap235.86fundcap8.509plannedrisk. Conclusion preservecash; neverroundKellyup tovenueminimum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; recorded306-308.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee0bp plus slippage2bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 19 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.009944%, average win0.814326%, average loss0.609413%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage45bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 19 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.965262%, average win0.115454%, average loss1.092405%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 19 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.269581%, average win0.552549%, average loss0.867493%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max40 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 23 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean0.114560%, average win1.332183%, average loss0.822073%; quarter Kelly0.021499. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 23 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean0.060697%, average win1.208300%, average loss0.822073%; quarter Kelly0.012558. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max10 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 23 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.031775%, average win0.995613%, average loss0.822073%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee0bp plus slippage2bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 19 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.068713%, average win0.400042%, average loss0.490593%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage45bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 19 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-1.023470%, average win0.000000%, average loss1.023470%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 19 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.328197%, average win0.162090%, average loss0.684770%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max40 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 23 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.249348%, average win0.703346%, average loss0.513986%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max20 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 23 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.249348%, average win0.703346%, average loss0.513986%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Frozen protocol note294. Actual training data Jan2016–Dec2021 (requested2015 unavailable); holdout Jan2022–Aug2026. Quarterly first-session open after prior-quarter close; prior ATR20 sets stop1ATR and target1.5ATR, max10 sessions then next open; no reentry that quarter. Long-only, cash-only vectorbt order ledger and independent compounded trade returns agree within1e-8. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each way. Gap stops at open; ambiguous daily bars stop first. 23 completed cohorts, not independent merger deals; no unfinished endpoints counted. Training10/40 variants are sensitivity checks; frozen20 used later. Net mean-0.235721%, average win0.683850%, average loss0.491158%; quarter Kelly0.000000. Drawdown includes initial cash and session-ending marks. Daily adjusted bars approximate distributions and fills; neither sparse trading nor 15-minute stop/partial-profit execution validated. This is an exit adaptation, not exact original-paper trading. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local study.py, trades.json, metrics.json.

Sep4IEXclose55.305 belowSMA20 55.6155,aboveSMA50 53.4402,20sessionreturn4.4772%; correlatedpriceindicatorsnotindependentconfirmations. ADR20 1.8835,ATR14simplemeanTR2.03179,20daylow50.78/high61.75,20dayannualizedclosevol36.0533%,IEXmeanvolume68740.65partialmarket. TwoADRtarget59.072 versus low20stop50.78 yieldsR/R.8325,below1.5. Tighter oneATRstop53.2732 would be a modeledrangeexit,notdemonstratedthesisinvalidation; notadopted. Fund49.14 cannotbuywhole55.305share,12.5458%shortbeforefees; fractionscannotexitextendedhoursunderprovidedvenue rules. FixedT20currententrySep1passed. HistoricalworstIEXovernightgap-16.5104%Oct13 2025; Sep23CRLannouncementopen29.91vs32.63priorclose=-8.3359%,dayclose33.77=+3.4937%: close-onlyoutcomemasksintradaygaprisk. Theseareobservedfeedprices,notcausalCRLreturnestimates. Noactiveholdings,Rprogressorexitadjustments. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SRRK&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all ; fundbook/venuerulesfromSep6runcontext. Conclusionzeroentry on failededge,geometryandexecution constraints.

Premises: same stock onlyonecompletedFDAdeadline; arbitrary stock windows measure backgrounddrift,notdatededge. Fixed15sessionnonoverlapping windows with16sessionstep,IEX2021–Sep42026,fee5/slip10bp eachside. Train61windows mean1.2841%,median-1.5474%,win45.9016%,bootstrap95%meanCI[-6.0859,11.4398]%. Holdout25windows fullyentered/exited2025+,mean1.6538%,median.8703%,win56%,CI[-3.6993,7.1608]%; oneDec18–Jan13boundarywindowexcluded explicitly. 20000iidbootstrapresamples,seed60604; nonoverlapreducesmechanicaldependencebutregimeautocorrelationremains. Descriptive420dailyrows2025+:corrSRRK/XBI.5691,SPY.3380;twofactorOLSbetaXBI1.2164,SPY.09075,dailyintercept-.06767%,R2.3243. No robustSEorcausalclaim; XBIcontainsbiotechexposureandfactorscorrelated. Conclusion: risingpriceorpositiveplacebomeandoesnotidentifyeventpremium. Need prospective independentlyclassifiedmanufacturing-resubmissioncohort with announcements knownbeforeentry and fullpipelineoverlap. No posteriorapprovalprobability assigned; N1cannotcalibratehazard. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SRRK,XBI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . Allmeasuredrows/metrics archived.

Preregistered note292 measurement experiment, nottrade-ready exitrule. 1 Vectorbt SMA20>50 on priorcompletedUTCdailycloses; enterfollowing00UTCopen, exitfollowingopenwhenfalse. 25bpfee+10bpslippage eachside, doublecoststress. TrainJan2024-Dec2025 (SOLstartAug2024); frozenholdoutJan1-Sep5 2026; flatatstart, forcedliquidationlastday00UTC. No rangeexits/stops/targets, so no tradeproposal evenifpositive. 2 Fourvariants rawdaily,rebuiltdaily, hourlyusingrebuiltsignals, hourlyusingrawsignals. Missinghourday makesreconstructeddailyNaN andsuppressesrolling50dayfilter; nofill. Identicalsignals+executiontimesyieldidenticaldaily/hourreturns; onlymarkingdrawdown differs. Rawdailyholdout -42.07581462700807%,N5; rebuilt/hour -34.622129406621696%,N4; doublecost -36.427338917791616%. Hourlytrain 6.677033703761973%,N4. 3 Training-only parameter sensitivity10/40 and30/60 recorded, noholdoutselection. Every60row fullcashledger matchescompoundednetcapitalreturns<=5.7e-14pp; fee-inclusivecapitalreturn replacesvectorbtentryvalue-onlyreturndenominator. Terminaldaily/hourtimealignedbeforefinalresults. 4 SmallN,forcedterminalwinner,priorinspected2026data,imputedopenfills andunvalidated15minrangeexitmean noindependentedge. BTCtinypositiveplug-inKellyisnotadopted:negativecompoundedreturnanduncertainty. Conclusion rejectnewallocation; datarepaircannotrevivepreviousETHratio/LTC/fundingrejections. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; directvalidation https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars .