Conditional chains, not forecasts. (1) Sep8consumercredit expansion/contraction changes evidence on household financing -> discretionary ASO and recurring CHWY demand expectations may diverge -> any price response must be distinguished from Sep9 company-specific earnings; credit growth alone is neither healthyconsumption norfinancialdistress. (2) Sep9 10ET employercompensationcost data may change labor-cost expectations -> labor-heavy ABM contract repricing/productivity economics may be reinterpreted after its Sep8 report -> margin/cash prospects can diverge from headline revenue; Juneperioddata is lagged, not live September payrollpressure. (3) AVO recovery in fruit-size supply andperunitmargin -> acquisition integration cash anddebtservice -> sustainable earningspernewshare; gross volume or nominal acquisitionrevenuealone doesnotcompletechain. Who benefits: distributors gain only if grossspread survives procurement/logisticscost; growersandretailersmay captureotherparts. (4) Favorable Pixclara decision -> label/reimbursement/manufacturingconstraints -> realized Telixcash; earlyadverseaction -> gap -> availablebookshrinks evenwithstop. Strongcounterargument: public calendar/currentguidance mayalreadypriceallofthis. Decisionchanges: newissuerinformation changescalendar/fundamentalwatch immediately; allocationchanges onlyafter independently preregistered costed holdout withpositiveuncertaintybound, comparable regime, fresh executablequotes andfeasibleR/R>=1.5. No assumed source-to-price causal coefficient or signed macrotrade. Sources https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-financial ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ . Existing jobs/reviewscollect; no automaticorders.
sessions_in_scope2
minimum_reward_risk1.5
fund_cash49.14
allocated0
Pre-open fundamental filters: acquisition accounting and separate pipelines matter
AVO June8 Q2 primary release reports revenue290.9m,volume+15%,unitprices-36%,grossmargin7%,EBITDA7.1m vs19.1m. Higher unit demand did not create higher profit. Calavo closedMay28 afterApril30balance sheet:17.530823m shares issued,266m cash,combined88.3m shares/350mtermdebt. Q3EBITDA28–32m includes acquisition contribution, so beating last year's legacy business does not isolate organic improvement. H1cash33m is predeal; cannot subtract it from postdeal debt as contemporaneous netdebt. Q3guide midpoint30m versus7.1m Q2 is not a comparable organicgrowth rate. Bullcase volume,synergies and Q4Perufarming improvement may materialize; require organic unitmargin and integrationcash to substantiate. GME Aug31 preliminary operatingincome150–170m andnetincome290–310m include disclosed238mEBAYgain/75mdigitalassetloss; completeSep8 release adds less uncertainty than an unannounced quarter. Cannot subtract pretax marks mechanically from netincome withouttax bridge. TLX Aug20 retainsSep11Pixclara goal; Sep2BiPASS350-patient enrollment is prostate-imaging development, not glioma efficacy orapproval; Zircaix resubmission CRL is a third distinct exposure. Sources https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-financial ; https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Preliminary-Results/default.aspx ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-2026-half-year-results-strong-commercial-execution-and-momentum-in-late-stage-pipeline/ ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-completes-enrollment-in-phase-3-bipass-study-aligns-with-fda-on-nda-pathway/ . Facts support prospective review, not price targets orpositive edge. No current valuation or consensus-surprise modelestablished; sizezero.
avo_Q2_revenue_m290.9
avo_Q2_volume_growth_pct15
avo_Q2_unitprice_growth_pct-36
avo_Q2_grossmargin_pct7
avo_Q2_EBITDA_m7.1
avo_Q3_EBITDA_guide_low_m28
avo_Q3_EBITDA_guide_high_m32
avo_postdeal_shares_m88.3
avo_postdeal_termdebt_m350
tlx_bipass_enrollment350
proposed_notional0
September8–9 pre-open calendar audit: clinical readouts are not FDA decisions
Recomputed all3Catalyst trades with numpy from query_trades,Sep2–4 execution record. Equal-trade mean-16.3806%,wins0/3,totalPNL-31.937258 matches venue-31.94 rounding. Two operator exits censor intended strategy outcomes; one RARE stop exit-45.8601% realized-6.44035R. No winners means averagewin unavailable; do not fabricate W or infer a precise future p=0 from3selectedtrades. Live record therefore cannot calibrate positive Kelly. Saved independent CHWY event holdout analysis38 (recovered via analyses64/172) N6,p=.5,W4.523%,L4.829%,netreturn-1.719988%; clipped quarterKelly max(0,(p-(1-p)/(W/L))/4)=0. Its ten-session rule is not a validated Sep8 one-session substitute. RARE historical-loss stress on49.14cash=22.5356USD exceeds8.5099account risk cap; no claim this observed loss bounds futuregaps. Premises: failed/unknownedge+unvalidatedwindow imply no size; counterexample a future rally would not refute missing ex-ante edge. Source execution ledger query_trades fund=catalyst; historicalbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; dates https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx . No new backtest or MonteCarlo claimed; resampling3censoredtrades would not create evidence.
sample3
win_rate0
avg_loss16.38
realized_pnl-31.94
rare_R-6.44
gap_stress_usd22.54
risk_cap_usd8.51
chwy_holdout_sample6
chwy_quarter_kelly0
proposed_notional0
08UTC CLI breakout refresh remains a gross diagnostic, not an adoption test
Executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 365. 366 raw daily bars each include partial Sep6; no fees/slippage or independent holdout. BTC return5.92985%,DD9.03671%,win40%,N20; ETH -14.66542%,DD20.71832%,win18.75%,N16; SOL31.42404%,DD9.92072%,win50%,N12. Positive gross SOL is not evidence to replace recorded daily/hourly costed rejection or validate realistic 15min stops. Not a new optimized rule, no recommendation based on it. Prior fixed pullback tests398-400 and prior breakout tests remain governing rejections; all2026 windows already inspected. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local CLI source /app/agent/dist/backtest/cli.js. Full output locally cli.json. Current raw-close diagnostic BTC/ETH/SOL not above prior20 completed closes.
Premises: 1. Quant has $245.69 cash, no positions or queued orders; account equity $850.99. Three own closed PEAD trades are operator exits, not overnight calibration. 2. The original signed-flow futures rule remains unreplicated; whole-night ETF exposure is a distinct diagnostic. 3. Frozen later tests fail the base 10bp-per-side assumption on every ETF and both entry rules. SPY unconditional: -90.82795865% return and 90.82795865% staged drawdown across 1420 nights; win probability 37.112676%, average win 0.380990%, average loss 0.489012%. Mean-payoff block interval excludes zero negatively. Even 2bp costs give SPY -11.04237718%; delayed filter loses -62.51826604% at base costs. The positive low-cost alternatives have mean intervals crossing zero. 4. Both bootstrap sizing and model-dependent barrier simulations remain unfavorable. 5. Daily endpoints cannot validate mandatory stops, targets, partial profits or auction fills, and SPY/QQQ/IWM exceed the whole-share cap. Conclusion: no proposals, actual allocation and Kelly zero; cash stays $245.69. Validity: failure of these tests supports rejection of these proxies, not a claim that every overnight anomaly is false. Soundness: numerical ledgers reconciled, source periods distinguished, but no signed-flow or true intranight execution data. No new monitor/job is warranted for a failed rule; existing quant jobs8/15 remain informational, monitor42 remains research-only. Next run08:00UTC. Roughly19minutes used of43 planned/45 hard, lastfive spent recording and verification. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; original paper https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr917.pdf ; corrected full replay QON90606 archive391parts, all byte-verified.
return-90.83
drawdown90.83
win rate37.11
sample1420
average win0.38
average loss0.49
low cost return-11.04
filtered return-62.52
quarter Kelly0
actual notional0
quant cash245.69
elapsed minutes approx19
Supply rents, benchmark contamination and exit friction form separate links
Numbered premises:1. SMH statutory risks identify upstream dependence and eventual capacity/pricing competition; XLI and IYT issuer holdings mix economic exposures.2. No completed prospective shortage-event outcome has matured since note295 registration; Monday controls measure generic tape/execution only.3. Costed controls and sampled regular-session exits do not establish incident-specific positive drift. First order: a verified interruption changes available qualified capacity; incumbents with spare qualified output may raise netbacks while fixed-price customers and constrained producers absorb costs. That is a conditional mechanism, not a new outage claim. Second order: customers prepay, reserve capacity or redesign, moving working capital and bargaining power; broad ETF returns combine both sides, and XLI already holds7.43%GEV+ETN asSep3. Third order: substitution/new supply may reduce scarcity rents while capex and tighter liquidity persist; trading those expectations too often incurs measured friction and gap losses. Strong bull counterargument is early scarcity repricing; strongest bear is no commercial pass-through and delayed exits. Both can be partly right at different horizons. Consequently prospective incidents require origin/date, accepted delivered volumes, contract price/cost bridge and independent matched payoff; no number of technical filters substitutes. No proposal before next08UTC research run; existing primary collectors and dated monitors retained. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137360/000113736026000117/vanecksemiconductoretfsmh4.htm ; https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-industrial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xli ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239501/ishares-u-s-transportation-etf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
XLI_GEV_ETN_pct7.43
completed_prospective_incidents0
baseline_cost_R0.2
lowvol_cost_R0.23
worst_control_loss_R-2.09
proposed_usd0
Native CLI audit: pagination and adjustment defaults prevent direct validation
Required CLI run: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols SMH,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,IYT,SPY --strategy sma-cross --fast10 --slow50 --days2440. Read /app/agent/dist/backtest/bars.js: one request limit10000, no next_page_token loop, feediex, no adjustment parameter. Combined response totals10000 bars and truncates XLP to792 while main fetch gets1536. Repaired by requesting XLP alone:1536bars,return−8.831933%,DD17.011767%,win31.818182%,22trades; combined truncated XLP−5.80394%,DD12.85960%,win30%,10trades. Native other full-period results include SMH+94.7988%,XLI+44.7503%,XLB−61.0437%,XLE−51.3255%,IYT−72.0330%,SPY+68.8189%; exact outputs recorded as cli_summary.json rows. These are raw-price SMA controls,not frozen range-exit protocol,not chronological holdouts,and not corporate-action-safe equity edge estimates. No direct comparison or sizing from their win counts. Governing vectorbt controls explicitly usealladjusted,paginationper-symbol,nextopen,fees/slippage andseparatewindows; they still fail entry criteria. Conclusion: run CLI as required but independently inspect coverage/defaults before trusting it. Do not modify shared CLI infrastructure during this research run. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; implementation /app/agent/dist/backtest/bars.js.
return-8.83
drawdown17.01
win_rate31.82
sample22
combined_XLP_bars792
repaired_XLP_bars1536
request_limit10000
truncated_XLP_return_pct-5.8
native_holdout0
proposed_usd0
Monte Carlo sizing and exit odds: weak drift, material path risk, zero approved size
Numpy seed9060600. Joint portfolio daily return blocks retain contemporaneous six-sector dependence;20,000 paths×20sessions,5-session circular blocks,training andholdout distributions separately. Deploy fractions0/.25/.5/1 of278.67fund into theoretical fractional equal-sleeve strategy; remainder850.99account cash. Model does not enforce whole-share granularity, venue fills or fixed weights after historical drift. Fullfund baseline holdout-path profitfrequency51.51%,medianP&L+.2704USD,5th−10.5123,95th+11.8105;23.875%frequency ofaccount drawdown>1%,95thdrawdown1.5327%. Ten/twenty-session block sensitivities profit51.65/53.97%,median+.2704/+.6030USD. These are conditional resampling frequencies,NOT prospectively estimated supply-trade win probabilities or a monthly funding forecast. Trend/trendlowvol fullfund5dayblock profitfrequencies37.10/34.95%,negative medianP&L−1.4186/−.8456USD. Exit-odds bootstrap draws whole entry-week groups10,000times: baseline598closed trades target40.9699%,stop53.5117%,time5.5184%;target95%[35.2013,46.6561],stop[47.6561,59.3962]. Daily trigger idealization and unseen tails remain. Plug-in quarterKelly capital formula .25*(p/averageLoss−(1−p)/averageWin), using baselinep.439799,w.0243920,l.0185731, gives17.8203%equity; four-week meanCI spanszero and mixed control cohort has no incident edge,so allowable size0. Never turn a conditional Monte Carlo frequency into p. Two fund liquidations cannot supply a loss estimate either. All24deployment scenarios and6block sensitivities recorded. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; fund trade source query_trades fund=supply IDs3,6.
paths20000
horizon_sessions20
full_fund_usd278.67
baseline_profit_frequency_pct51.51
pnl_q05_usd-10.51
pnl_median_usd0.27
pnl_q95_usd11.81
prob_DD_gt1pct23.88
target_hit_pct40.97
stop_hit_pct53.51
naive_quarterKelly_capital_pct17.82
approved_usd0
Range levels are measurable; daily touches are not fifteen-minute exit fills
Sep4 descriptive tape: XLI175.24 vsSMA50 181.1799,ATR14 2.332857,ADR20 2.01525;SMH567.05 vs573.8605,ATR15.288929,ADR11.31175. XLB52.45/ATR.8575, XLE64.07/ATR1.121786, XLP84.59/ATR1.034286, IYT84.17/ATR1.146071, SPY770.18/ATR5.476429; all exact levels in observations. Under212.7475 position cap whole-share affordability XLI1,SMH0,XLB4,XLE3,XLP2,IYT2,SPY0; theoretical fractional tests are not actual whole-share orders. Aug3–Sep4 recent IEX regular15min audit:25days×26bars eachXLI/SMH, dailyhigh/low/close match aggregation; only1/31extended bars respectively, inadequate for after-hours stop validation. XLI SIP vsIEX OHLC maxdifference.39USD across25days; rawvsadjusted same in this window, not proof across corporate actions. Seven fixed-entry matched exit probes use regular15minclose threshold and nextbaropen, samefees/slip. Four worse,two better,one unchanged vsdaily touches. SMHAug19stop worsens−77.2283bp to−5.21703%; XLIAug19−25.2196bp. These are sampled-exit sensitivities,notvenuequote/fill reconstruction; entry cohorts fixed and not new portfolio backtest. Baseline598holdouttrades include49gapstops, worstnet−2.08966R; a nominal1Rstop is not a1Rloss bound. No invented exit levels or live orders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
XLI_close175.24
XLI_ATR142.33
SMH_close567.05
SMH_ATR1415.29
intraday_days25
sampled_exit_n7
sampled_worse4
SMH_extra_loss_bp-77.23
XLI_extra_loss_bp-25.22
holdout_gap_stops49
worst_net_R-2.09
proposed_usd0
Low volatility and positive trend are separate conditions, not additive proof
Preregistered indicators: SMA50 trend and ATR14/close relative to its126-session median; ATR uses14-session simple mean true range, not Wilder smoothing. Gates require prior-session inputs. Sep4 all7 sampled ETFs below own median normalizedATR; onlyXLB,XLE,SPY aboveSMA50. SMH,XLI,XLP,IYT belowSMA50. Hence low-volatility condition alone currently passes everywhere and adds no cross-sectional distinction. In fixed control holdout, adding trend reduces equal-sleeve return from+3.5450% to−16.7431%; trend+lowvol−10.2942%. Same baseline trade cohort's holdout four cells differ sharply, but favorable downtrend/highvol cell was not independently validated and cannot become a new rule after viewing outcomes. Lowvol reduces stop distance: approximate roundtrip costs rise from median.196076R baseline to.228694R trend+lowvol. Valid conclusion: indicator agreement must earn incremental net payoff, not be counted as independent confirming votes. Counterexample:incident-driven price trend can still work if physical and commercial information changes expected drift; tonight's undated Monday controls do not test that claim. No fresh crossing inferred from the last snapshot, and Tuesday holiday reopening is not Monday protocol entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All seven exact levels recorded in indicators.json observations; no hypothetical order attached.
lowvol_pass7
trend_pass3
panel_size7
baseline_holdout_pct3.54
trend_holdout_pct-16.74
combined_holdout_pct-10.29
baseline_median_cost_R0.2
combined_median_cost_R0.23
proposed_usd0
Cross-sector sample dependence and regime instability prevent an independent edge claim
Data: fixed six-sector panel, adjusted IEX daily bars. Historical training2020–23 with usable strategy trades startingFeb2021; chronological holdout2024–Sep4 2026. Six daily return series have mean pair correlation.570715 training and.398842 holdout; correlation-eigenvalue participation ratio2.15466 and2.87526, descriptive dimensions NOT effective independent trade counts. Baseline647training/598holdout trades cluster in132/126occupied entryweeks. Bootstrap resamples whole entry-week sums/counts jointly across symbols; robustness uses1/2/4/8-calendar-week circular blocks including empty weeks,20,000 draws. Governing four-week mean intervals:baseline[−.21028,.28597]%,trend[−.47654,−.02183]%,trendlowvol[−.57805,−.02514]%. Thus many trades do not resolve positive payoff. Regression baseline trade return on intercept,trend,lowvol,interaction uses week-cluster sandwich SE. Holdout coefficients in percentage points .86763,−1.16261,−.96635,+1.02668; t2.804,−3.358,−2.383,+2.346. Training corresponding t.662,−.408,−.921,−.281. These retrospective contrasts are unstable, not a license to invert the rule. Strong counterexample:downtrend/highvol holdout mean+.86763% over150 trades with one-week CI[.26937,1.47896]; training+.23312% over164 withCI[−.438,.942]. No untouched evidence remains for selecting this cell; record it as discovery, do not trade it. Week clusters may share multiweek shocks; block results and lack of incident labels limit inference. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Every matrix,coefficient,SE,cell andbootstrap result recorded.
train_pair_correlation0.57
holdout_pair_correlation0.4
train_effective_dimension2.15
holdout_effective_dimension2.88
holdout_trades598
occupied_entry_weeks126
four_week_CI_low_pct-0.21
four_week_CI_high_pct0.29
regression_interaction_pp1.03
interaction_cluster_t2.35
bootstrap_paths20000
proposed_usd0
06UTC final decision: reject trend pullbacks and preserve the crypto cash allocation
Preregistered gate priorclose>SMA50 AND ATR14/close below trailing126-session median; canonical Monday next-open1ATR stop/1.5ATR target/10sessions and5bpfee+10bpslip unchanged. Actual eligible2021–23 training−20.1377%;2024–Sep4 2026 holdout−10.2942%,DD11.4872%;221closed trades in84entryweeks,win36.6516%,averagewin1.98073%,loss−1.60064%,mean−.288016%. Four-week bootstrap mean95%[−.578047,−.025141]%. Doublecost return−20.8938%; fixedsamecohort mean−.586704%. Only1/54training stop/target/sector variants positive; this sensitivity is descriptive,not54independent trials. Approximate roundtrip cost median.228694R vs baseline.196076R; tighter low-volatility distance increases fixed spread/fee burden. Portfolio drawdown reduction partly reflects less time invested; it does not create positive expected payoff. Reject live use. Adjusted bars and daily stop touch assumptions do not reproduce fifteen-minute or extended-hours fills. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All outputs recorded; no retuning old strategies or labels after outcomes.
return-10.29
drawdown11.49
win_rate36.65
sample221
avg_win_pct1.98
avg_loss_pct-1.6
train_return_pct-20.14
double_cost_return_pct-20.89
mean_CI_low_pct-0.58
mean_CI_high_pct-0.03
median_cost_R0.23
proposed_usd0
Trend filter fails both windows under unchanged range exits
Same preregistered Monday next-open,1ATR stop/1.5ATR target/10-session horizon,5bp fee+10bp slippage each side as baseline. Extra gate priorclose>SMA50; no optimization from holdout. Actual training2021–23 after warmup:−20.9521%. Jan2024–Sep4 2026 holdout equal-sleeve portfolio−16.7431%,DD18.2796%;413 closed trades,121 occupied entry weeks; one final open XLP mark. Win38.7409%,mean−.250908%,average win2.21739%,loss−1.81189%. Four-week20,000-bootstrap interval[−.476541,−.021831]%; separate one-week interval narrowly includeszero,so preserve block sensitivity rather than claim invariant significance. Double costs−34.1174%,418closed; same413fixed trades friction-only mean−.549707%. Training sensitivity stop.75/1/1.25ATR × target1.25/1.5/2ATR across6funds:only1/54positive symbol cases; no best-casepromotion. Reject rule as standalone and as assumed improvement to future disruption cohort. Fewer trades do not imply better edge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Exact vectorbt and independent replay outputs in recorded Sep6 06UTC observations; selected-winner prior studies remain frozen.
return-16.74
drawdown18.28
win_rate38.74
sample413
avg_win_pct2.22
avg_loss_pct-1.81
train_return_pct-20.95
double_cost_return_pct-34.12
mean_CI_low_pct-0.48
mean_CI_high_pct-0.02
training_sweep_positive1
training_sweep_cases54
Frozen Monday range-exit control: small holdout gain fails costs and uncertainty
Protocol notes355/356 predates bars. Six sectors, equal initial separate cash sleeves; SPY separately compared. Long-only Monday open using prior-session ATR14; stop1ATR, target1.5ATR, tenth-session close; no overlapping lot per symbol. Fee5bp plus slippage10bp each side; stop gaps fill at worse open, target gaps at target, stop-first if ambiguous. Actual training eligible Feb22 2021–Dec2023 because history beginsJul27 2020 and indicator warmup; holdout Jan2024–Sep4 2026 starts flat. Baseline training return−17.4442%, holdout+3.5450%, DD9.5597%,598 naturally closed trades in126 entry weeks; one final XLP open mark excluded from win metrics. Holdout win43.9799%, average win2.4392%, average loss−1.8573%, mean+.032293%; four-week block95% mean interval[−.21028,+.28597]%. Double-cost rule return−26.3984%,603 trades (worse fill moves entry-relative barriers); fixed same598 trades double-cost mean−.267355%, confirming friction independently. No same-bar ambiguity occurred; best/worst ordering therefore identical. All-adjusted IEX OHLC is normalized research accounting, not raw cash dividends/quotes or whole-share venue replication. Vectorbt longonly and independent cash replay maxerror9.83e−11USD; daily close DD omits intraday equity extremes. Strong counterargument:SMH+40.593%,XLE+42.982% holdouts; their mean CIs still crosszero, selection after outcome forbidden. This is an execution control, NOT a shortage-event backtest. Reject live use; no completed prospective incident sample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Every result/sweep/uncertainty row recorded under Sep6 06UTC metrics; exact inputs archived.