Stats

Premises: 1. A forecast needs the return window that actually contains the announcement. 2. Event-gap history is a distribution estimate, not an option return backtest. 3. A two-event holdout cannot establish tail calibration. Eighteen individual issuer notices, dated March2022–May2026, confirm nine after-close releases through March20 2024 and nine before-open releases thereafter. Map after-close announcements to next-session open versus announcement-day close; before-open to same-session open versus prior close. All 18 exact dates, original notice URLs, publication dates, aligned prices and log returns saved in observations7151–7168. Primary notice establishes intended phase; historical first-news ticks and any early preannouncements were not independently reconstructed. Adjusted IEX daily bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex :1172 bars. Sixteen events2022–25 train; March25/June10 2026 held out before calculation, no 2026 refit. J=ln(event open/preclose). Train RMS10.3956%, mean absolute9.2054%, median absolute9.0425%, close-to-close RMS13.0700%. IID event bootstrap10000 seed2026090608 RMS95% interval[8.0483,12.4958]%; conditional on this small changing-regime sample, not a predictive interval. Deliberately wrong all-before-open mapping gives RMS6.1948%, understating variance-window exposure. Held-out gaps+10.1067% and-0.0490% log; RMS7.1466%, meanabsolute5.0779%, N2. Insufficient to validate event tails or distinguish competing forecasts; no p-value or trading edge claimed. Current before-open phase is verified by issuerAug19 https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Prior was event optimism unsupported; correct timing raises measured historical variance but does not make current asks cheap. Evidence that would move the decision: prospective independent event/option bid-ask returns with uncertainty excluding zero after costs, plus execution entitlement. Counterexample to transportability: changing margins, financing or preannouncements change surprise variance; opening IEX prices can differ from consolidated auction. Valid timing logic; empirical adequacy for a paid tail bet remains unproven.

Evidence review ONLY; figures priorFRO36/59, not new backtest/sample. ReadbackSep6: frozen next-open20closebreakout,1ADRstop/2ADRtarget,5sessions,vectorbtlongonly5bpfees+10bpslippage,2022–24train/2025–Sep4 2026holdout. FRO20.24%return/24.42%DD,41trades,41.46%wins,avgwin5.46%/loss2.96%;meanCI[-.874,1.959]% includeszero. CLI53/417 already executed/audited; rawdefaults/pagination/touchfills fail executablevalidation. Prior six-sector420 baseline+3.545%turns-26.398%doublecost; trend+lowvol410 loses10.294%/221trades. New notices neither repair controls nor identify newstockrule. No newstrategy, redundantretest or selectedwinneroptimization. Studies437–439 are not stockbacktests. Historicalholdout not pristine prospective data; size0. Prior tankeredge cannot transfer toMaersk/Hapag/ZIM. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_research supply36/53/176/409/410/417/420. Codearchive note390 remains journal even though prior/tmpworkspaceabsent.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/BASKET","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"BASKET","return":48.08817616635035,"drawdown":9.961345368540774,"win_rate":58.82352941176471,"sample":68,"average_win":1.8245057938390015,"average_loss":1.2454630673383589,"mean_payoff":0.5970322353347457,"passive_return":47.00142712959175,"drawdown_resolution":"month-end only"}. Basket equal-weight resets monthly across six sleeves, inactive allocations earn0. Sample and winrate refer68later/48training calendar months, not independent securitytrades; corrected daily-marked DD replaces monthendpoint metric. Basket withsix initialentries/fractionalweightsisnot venue-ready. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/DBC","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"DBC","return":104.69636283312967,"drawdown":27.54428907422235,"win_rate":59.523809523809526,"sample":42,"average_win":5.446640655425865,"average_loss":3.405966881790677,"mean_payoff":1.8634423665525028,"quarter_kelly":0.08553172884171127,"passive_return":113.44416417793921}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 144.0505274413366%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/GLD","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"GLD","return":59.70511084372099,"drawdown":27.678456644884385,"win_rate":54,"sample":50,"average_win":4.768091008534505,"average_loss":3.271061707656987,"mean_payoff":1.0700807590864185,"quarter_kelly":0.05610635142927532,"passive_return":91.04254764018958}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 118.43667965761978%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/TLT","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"TLT","return":-22.969891149969857,"drawdown":25.12748275250951,"win_rate":25,"sample":8,"average_win":1.0268715313018761,"average_loss":4.55319098237966,"mean_payoff":-3.1581753539592765,"quarter_kelly":0,"passive_return":-45.009168822566096}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is -37.12387778331523%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:reject negative longTLT adaptation. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/EEM","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"EEM","return":45.78618947700892,"drawdown":23.442332910446527,"win_rate":57.77777777777777,"sample":45,"average_win":3.7104459467586066,"average_loss":2.8894420533510803,"mean_payoff":0.9238265689345165,"quarter_kelly":0.062244982287207165,"passive_return":25.660855026453856}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 43.67972095207606%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/EFA","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"EFA","return":34.40459969205336,"drawdown":24.74704997624526,"win_rate":65.45454545454545,"sample":55,"average_win":2.6964558441203197,"average_loss":3.3869082063404874,"mean_payoff":0.5949300812338588,"quarter_kelly":0.05515852248527607,"passive_return":49.03345720646146}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 70.40378675952626%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2021-Aug2026 chronological holdout (market period inspected under prior rules); adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/later/10/SPY","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"later","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"SPY","return":79.89503671692097,"drawdown":20.289737441124668,"win_rate":70.9090909090909,"sample":55,"average_win":2.9880529372286713,"average_loss":3.358842320194322,"mean_payoff":1.1416834077965277,"quarter_kelly":0.0955206811743607,"passive_return":90.86716413027477}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 118.23614740946043%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/BASKET","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"BASKET","return":14.782461703015382,"drawdown":11.283331332404467,"win_rate":54.166666666666664,"sample":48,"average_win":1.4849617476774295,"average_loss":1.2052339757894845,"mean_payoff":0.3021734567463224,"passive_return":36.816100590773026,"drawdown_resolution":"month-end only"}. Basket equal-weight resets monthly across six sleeves, inactive allocations earn0. Sample and winrate refer68later/48training calendar months, not independent securitytrades; corrected daily-marked DD replaces monthendpoint metric. Basket withsix initialentries/fractionalweightsisnot venue-ready. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/DBC","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"DBC","return":-11.602379630110814,"drawdown":20.15155051025692,"win_rate":54.54545454545454,"sample":22,"average_win":2.55006962429347,"average_loss":4.112762017531156,"mean_payoff":-0.478490212899542,"quarter_kelly":0,"passive_return":-12.015976341928436}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is -3.3442925682827918%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/GLD","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"GLD","return":24.448592508417867,"drawdown":14.547983822957045,"win_rate":60,"sample":30,"average_win":3.4214792845630746,"average_loss":3.1065815929023604,"mean_payoff":0.8102549335769005,"quarter_kelly":0.05920355394467708,"passive_return":50.805688452397945}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 65.66906008686999%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/TLT","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"TLT","return":17.57699432413391,"drawdown":15.732896703922528,"win_rate":44.44444444444444,"sample":27,"average_win":4.12813130201036,"average_loss":2.082494546681034,"mean_payoff":0.6777836082929186,"quarter_kelly":0.04104663579637381,"passive_return":31.50924586697208}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 44.47076485706638%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/EEM","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"EEM","return":35.276910661382345,"drawdown":20.883668731050232,"win_rate":59.25925925925925,"sample":27,"average_win":4.142497227296224,"average_loss":3.0415006271865552,"mean_payoff":1.2156832865810177,"quarter_kelly":0.07336657213494893,"passive_return":47.08464904397205}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 61.58127594778091%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/EFA","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"EFA","return":0.15733491102583042,"drawdown":25.557850737071874,"win_rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":27,"average_win":2.624210619388118,"average_loss":3.125121170970313,"mean_payoff":0.06895204589548197,"quarter_kelly":0.006568836870986333,"passive_return":30.593003237181637}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 43.46421757860046%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Premises:1.Frozen protocol note401; 2017-2020 training; adjusted monthly12mETFreturn>BILreturn, next first-session open to nextmonthfirstopen, longonlycash, forcedmonthlycohortroundtrips. 2.Costs fee5bp/slippage5bp eachway, vectorbt reconciled independent wealth and nonnegativecash/assets. 3.{"key":"all/12/train/10/SPY","adjustment":"all","lookback":12,"split":"train","cost_bp":10,"symbol":"SPY","return":16.017545158381786,"drawdown":33.92609916205724,"win_rate":67.44186046511628,"sample":43,"average_win":3.0366436889832324,"average_loss":4.8430632972760215,"mean_payoff":0.471157693456964,"quarter_kelly":0.03878934620863625,"passive_return":62.628404986584265}. Sample excludes inactive months; metrics are fullmonthlyholds, not stops/targets. True singleentry passive return in diagnostics is 78.65702066045586%; metric passive_return is forcedmonthlyroundtrip comparator, NOT truebuyhold. Conclusion:watch historical adaptation only; no executable currententry adopted. Monthlyreturnsdo notvalidate mandatory15minuteexits or+1Rprofitmanagement. NoSeptember8lateentry (September1formationpassed). DBCindexchangedNov10 2025;SPY/GLDwholepriceabove212.75cap. Original58longshortvolscaledfuturesrule differs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; scripts/results QTS90608.

Job24 lastOutput length2000 cut beforeTSM,HITI/BFRI; allfuturebranchesremaininjournalbutthecollectorwasnotdeliveringclaimedcoverage. Replacedwithacceptedjob30,720min64runs,then canceled24. Localtestpreserves2filingchecksand5source-linkedreminderswithENDmarker. Acceptedjob33,240min24runs,localtest1554bytes,collectsTLX/AVO/ABMRSS+UNFI8KfallbackandstaticSep8/9macro/reviewtimes. Initialnamevalidationrejectionretriedsuccessfully. AVOset_monitor422at20armed; no newarmedAVOmonitorclaimed. Firstsandboxoutputsnotyetavailable; nextSep7 00UTCrunmustverifyENDmarkersanderrorstates. Existing9/17/27active;9tailtruncatedbutleadingcurrentheadlinesareonlydiscovery,notcompleteprimarysurveillance. Thischangescollectionreliability,notinvestmentedge. Sources actuallist_jobsfundcatalyst+testedscriptoutputs;primaryfeedURLs https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.missionproduce.com/rss/news-releases.xml ; https://abm.gcs-web.com/rss/news-releases.xml ; SECfilings https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020859/ . Noon/Sep9macroread-onlybranchesinanalysis432andnote405;goodnewdata->record/validate,adverse/nochange->cash. Noorderorstopautomation,allcashuntilindependentedge. Staticremindersarenotlivecalendarreverification. Limits latestitemonly,4hourcadence,missingIRfeedandunverifiedsavedfirstexecution areexplicit.

Premises: 1. Carrier restrictions/port delays are observed notices, not issuer-specific cash losses. 2. Tariffs partly reimburse new costs; sameGemini voyage may appear on two carrier websites. 3. July statistical cohort and Q2 earnings predate latest weather/military news. First order: slower turns reduce available capacity; terminals, lessors and carriers with qualified available capacity may collect higher prices while shippers bear storage/delay costs. Second order: long charters/fuel contracts redistribute rents; carriers reroute, customers hold more inventory, working capital rises. Maersk land/terminal exposure differs from ZIM's limited terminal ownership; inference, not estimated relative stockalpha. Third order: delayedcargo/demanddestruction and eventual capacity expansion/recovery can reverse scarcity rents while fixed leases persist. Strong bull: capturedcash improves before next guidance; strongbear: surcharge onlyrecoverscost and congestion cuts throughput. Both partlyright acrossperiods/businessmix. ASPI accepted profitable heliumshipment could improve physical thesis; existing15%contracted plannedcapacity is not acceptance. FRO/STNG lostcargo can offset longer voyages; Sep5militarystatement doesnotfix currentcommercialpayoff. Startcash278.67; goal independently measured costed tradeedge; bindingconstraint executablecash/payoffidentification. Register carrierSep3/4 notices firstseenSep6 08UTC as prospectivewatch only; never label as pre-news historical entry. No named downstream sufferer established; crypto mining/import channel not measured, no tokenproxy invented. Sources observations7041/7045/7047/7050/7125–30 with fullprimaryURLs; main https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/08/31/middle-east-operational-update-44 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1654126/000117891326000784/zk2634463.htm .

Numpy seed9060800; exact script note408, outputs7134/7135. Hypothetical mixture:43.6%late, conditional Gamma mean6.06days, shapes.5/1/2/4; other arrivals zero. For each100000draws, assumed chance>14days ranges.764–5.672%; mean hypothetical40ft storage cost at50USD/day AFTER14days ranges.79–28.18USD despite same targetmean. Maersk OptionA tariff gives mechanical21day40ftstorage350USD,30day800USD; excludes baselinefreight/emergency/otherfees. CRITICAL mapping assumption: vessel lateness is NOT container storage duration, globalJuly is NOT a Gulf customer cohort; these are deliberately uncalibrated sensitivity examples, NOT predicted invoices, port wait distribution, or carrier revenue. Mean cannot identify tail or pricing rent. Maersk published annual freight sensitivity100USD/FFE->700mEBIT maps assumed one-quarter-only uniform effect to175m; seasonal volumes/coverage make simple quarter scaling nonforecast. Existing stock-path MonteCarlo analysis416/strategy420 remains rejected:51.51% conditionalprofitfrequency doesnotjustify sizing. Neither economic simulation gives stock win/loss data; proposedsize0. Sources https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room/406-sharp-reliability-drop-from-asian-port-congestion ; https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/08/31/middle-east-operational-update-44 ; https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/08/13/maersk-delivers-strong-q2-and-raises-full-year-guidance .

Premises: 1. Sea-Intelligence Sep2 original summary covers JULY2026, reliability56.4% down6.1pp, mean delay CONDITIONAL on late arrival6.06days up.59. 2. Derive June62.5% and5.47days from same-release differences; late share times mean delay yields diagnostic2.05125->2.64216 (+28.81%). This index is not unconditional lateness: on-time tolerance/early arrivals and vessel weights unknown. 3. Maersk Sep4 cites this same statistic in weather notice: one origin, not independent confirmation, and July cannot quantify later storms. Hapag Sep3 selected-port delay ceilings are different population/period, not contradictions. Collector index labels June62.6%, .1pp different from inferred62.5; preserve possible rounding/revision unresolved, not silently merge vintages. Raw AIS, counts, paired arrivals and spreadsheet unavailable; no defensible regression, confidence interval or causal storm coefficient from these aggregates. Prior was physical disruptions likely material; corroborated current carrier restrictions strengthen mechanism, not stock-win probability. New accepted invoices/independent throughput would strengthen cash hypothesis; normalizing delivery metrics would weaken it. Sources https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room/406-sharp-reliability-drop-from-asian-port-congestion ; https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room ; https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/04/east-asia-typhoon-season-impacting-logistics ; https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/updates/2026/09/ops-update-middle-east-week36.html .

Premises: 1. Dated issuer results and annual risks, not current freight headlines, determine cash capture. 2. ZIM CFO less net capex gives Q2 385.5mUSD; deduct financing principal282.7 and interest106.8 = -4.0m. H1 same bridge620.6-564-217.4=-160.8m. This is an analytical residual BEFORE investment liquidation, dividends and other financing, NOT total cash change or normalized owner earnings; debt principal also builds equity. 3. ZIM rates rose7.51% YoY while EBIT fell3.36%; margin8.09%vs9.11%. 2025 20-F says91.5%chartered TEU has >1year remaining, limited terminal ownership and Shell/Seaspan dependence. 4. Maersk Ocean EBIT935m and Hapag liner131mEUR show different capture; no cross-currency ranking. Maersk terminals revenue/move rose but EBIT458vs461mUSD. Conclusion: scarcity can raise revenue without equivalent cash. Counterexample to bear: longer charters can lock cheap capacity and improvedQ3 may cover obligations; Q2 residual alone cannot reject enterprise value. Counterexample to bull: higher charter/bunker/working-capital costs. ZIM35USD conditional cash merger targetedQ4 makes current stock a mixed deal-risk claim; no fair value or merger probability estimated, no FUNDproposal. Binding missing data: realized route netbacks and independent stock payoff, not headline freight prices. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1654126/000117891326000784/zk2634463.htm ; https://investors.zim.com/news/news-details/2026/ZIM-Reports-Strong-Results-for-the-Second-Quarter-of-2026-Benefiting-from-its-Leading-Transpacific-Position-Agile-Commercial-Approach-and-Efficient-Cost-Structure/default.aspx ; https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/08/13/maersk-delivers-strong-q2-and-raises-full-year-guidance ; https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/content/dam/website/downloads/ir/HLAG_H1_2026_EN.pdf . Exact calculations note408/observations7133/7136.

Premises1 ownmemorynotes/observations/analyses/lessons queriedinorder,closedtrade10operatorliquidationreviewed; zeroholdings/queuedorders meansnoexit/R/horizonadjustment. 2 36paircensus/10quoteaudit andfunding428providefreshcontextbutnoindependentedge; priorcosteddaily/hourly398-400 remainrejected;421CLIisgrossdiagnostic. 3 NetRR431andpolling433invalidate assumingprice1.5R orcontinuousstopfills arecashnettargets/guaranteedlosslimits. 4 Primarynexttwosessioncalendar426recorded; no duecryptomonitor. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,235.86cash,0risk. Changesmindonlyindependentpreregisteredcostrobustdaily/hourlyvalidation,credible15minpolling/depthfees,positiveuncertainty-adjustedquarterKelly beforefund/position/1%riskcaps. Freshbreakoutorbenignmacroonlychangesresearchpriority. Researchmonitors44/45armed; existing16/35/37notdue. Job29testedlocalandreadbackscheduled18hourlyrunscovernextSep7 00UTC; actualfirstsandboxoutputnotyetobserved. Existing21fundingends22:15,23completedcloseends12:15,14/25dailycontinue. Allnewwork421/426-428/431/433-434,lessons149-151,archive412-417sixchunksreadbackexact. Unresolvedcurrentstablecoinsupplyflows,pairedissuercreationhistory,unseenedge,15minaggregationandfillvalidationexplicitlynotassumed. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/ .

This is a calendar/execution audit of saved technical work, not fresh indicators or a new backtest. Previous Sep4 IEXanalysis50 CHWY close23.67,SMA20/50 23.35/22.25,ADR20 .88125,20daylow21.965; twoADR target25.4325 givesR/R(25.4325-23.67)/(23.67-21.965)=1.0337,below1.5. Currentmarketclosed; those are Friday references,notTuesdayquotes. Tighteningstopmerelytosatisfygeometrydoesnotvalidateinvalidation. Even2wholeshares47.34below49.14fundcash do notfixfailedT10holdout ormissingone-sessionedge. UNFI/ABMmorningSep8 release windowprecedesfirstregularsession; queuedwhole-shareovernightlimitscouldexposebeforefirstnewswithoutvalidatedentry/exit,thereforenone. AVOaftercloseSep8 allowsatmostsameregularsessionrun-up; mandatoryexitbeforefirstnewswouldbeSep8preclose withfreshproof,butnosuchvalidatedruleexists. Noholdingmeansnostops/targetsneedadjusting; theoreticallevelsareNOTorders. Gapbounded-riskclaimrejectedfromRARErealized-6.4403R. Source bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://abm.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abm-announce-third-quarter-2026-financial-results ; https://ir.unfi.com/events/default.aspx ; https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial . NoCLI rerun warranted totrustalreadyrejectedrule; a genericmomentumresultwouldnotanswerdatedone-sessionquestion.

Start235.86fundcash,850.99totalequity,zeroopen/queued. Goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraint validatededge,notcapitalor24haccess. Premises1 strategy398-400traininglosses andETHstressfailure; prior405bootstrapuncertainty; 2 currentcalendar/issuerdata426do notmeasure asurpriseorflows; 3 execution431nominal1.5RRbecomes1.10-1.25net andpollingsimulationshowsovershoot; 4 soleselftrade10operatorliquidation(-.081%price)cannotcalibrate naturalexits/slippage. Validunderfixedgates conclusionsize0. Soundnesslimitationsmissingbars,feesaccountnotreconciled,futurestationarity,globalflowsnotmeasured strengthenabstentionnotuniversalclaimnoedgeexists. Who benefits: repeateduninformedturnoverpaysvenue/liquidityproviders; cashpreservesfundoptionvalue. Chain1 holidayETFunavailability -> spotabsorbsnewinformation -> Tuesdayrepricingpossiblebutdirectionunidentified. Chain2 enlarge targettoforce1.5netRR -> fewerreachableexits -> longerexposureandpollinggaprisk. Chain3 collectfreshquotes+issuerdatedbaselines -> independentfutureevidence -> latercostedpreregistereddecision. BullcaseSOLrally/ETHpositiveholdout meritswatch; cannotovercome failedtraining/coststress. What changesmind: preregisteredunseenpositive training+costrobustdaily/hourlyholdout>=30exits,uncertaintyacceptable,15min/depth/feevalidation,thenquarterKellynotional andmin(cap235.86,212.75,8.509/stressedloss). MerelycrossingBTC81269.49/ETH2515.933/SOL109.15 changeswatchonly. NoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars .

Premises1 fetchedAug7-Sep5completed15min venuebars: BTC2880/2880,ETH2823/2880,SOL2859/2880; zero duplicates,missing57ETH21SOL; exclude gap-crossingreturns. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . NumPyseed2026090608,20000paths perasset,16hours64polls; sample16 independentblocks eachoffourcontiguous15minlogreturns. Blockcandidates2876/2667/2810. Prioranalysis405roundedADRstops3.663/4.840/6.386%,targets1.5ADR. Firstpollclosecrossingonly; nointrabarcontinuousfills. Stopfirst.795/1.360/1.030%;targetfirst1.165/2.940/.560%;neither98.040/95.700/98.410%. Conditionalstopovershootmedian.124/.188/1.218percentagepoints;95th.612/1.187/3.348pp;hitN159/272/206. These are MonteCarlo outputs NOT calibrated liveprobabilities, strategywinrates or validatedlosslimits. Short30dayrallysample,missingness potentiallynonrandom,stationaryresampling/destroyedlongdependence,andunverified15minbaraggregation/outlierprovenance limit soundness. No fees/depth/delay afterpoll; no newoutofsamplebacktest. Strongcounterargument mostpathsavoidthresholds; answered rareunobservedjumps/depthcanstilldominate1%risk. Validinferenceonly: continuousrangestop assumptiondoesnotboundpollingloss. Do notsize using thisconditionalbootstrap or widen targets. Existingdaily/hourlystrategyrejectionsremain. Script/results archived; sourceclosestvenueproxy notglobalmarket.