Stats

Premises:1 paginated provider daily bars, stocks SIP adjustment=all through Sep18, crypto completed Sep19;2 252/365 interval close return, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 endpoints trailing5years;3 own ledger empty/Core retired flat noqueue from supplied context. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/crypto-bars . Full table [{"mode":"all","symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":761.69,"annual":0.17127216250711208,"sma":712.4730999999999,"atr":6.002450000000005,"p90":0.10841930825440019,"p90_n":1255,"high20":773.38,"above":true,"rank":4,"size":0},{"mode":"all","symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":81.25,"annual":-0.05709643727515379,"sma":84.36059999999999,"atr":0.6628700000000016,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"p90_n":1255,"high20":83.28,"above":false,"rank":null,"size":0},{"mode":"all","symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":67.03,"annual":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"p90_n":1255,"high20":69.125,"above":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33},{"mode":"all","symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":104.97,"annual":0.16737099644128106,"sma":101.03105,"atr":1.0289949999999997,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"p90_n":1255,"high20":108.83,"above":true,"rank":5,"size":0},{"mode":"all","symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":401.17,"annual":0.1905214114016085,"sma":416.22065,"atr":7.923445000000004,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"p90_n":1255,"high20":429.42,"above":false,"rank":null,"size":0},{"mode":"all","symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":284.1,"annual":0.20131929468476484,"sma":273.51065,"atr":3.2170000000000045,"p90":0.12821050854556687,"p90_n":1255,"high20":299.61,"above":true,"rank":3,"size":93.33},{"mode":"all","symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1434,"pages":2,"close":721.45,"annual":0.2286901578759135,"sma":661.77265,"atr":8.27367999999999,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"p90_n":1255,"high20":724.125,"above":true,"rank":2,"size":93.33},{"mode":"crypto","symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2088,"pages":1,"close":81239.166,"annual":-0.29782168636543105,"sma":70464.58972958945,"atr":2233.81038940355,"p90":0.36718658848933106,"p90_n":1826,"high20":82233.502538071,"above":true,"rank":6,"size":0},{"mode":"crypto","symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2088,"pages":1,"close":2632.425,"annual":-0.41123549014783833,"sma":2073.6830831083275,"atr":98.56906743532497,"p90":0.42328883963806774,"p90_n":1826,"high20":2665.72,"above":true,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Above-SMA ranking selects EEM/QQQ/IWM. GLD/TLT fail SMA; crypto ranks6/7. Conditional sizes93.33 each, not executed. No strategy retest required under fixed mandate.

Start120USD Supplycash,1000accountequity,no ownpositions/orders; goal price industrial bottleneck rent before guidance. Premises:1.LaxmiAug27/Sep7/Sep15 notices directly report allocations; Celanese Q2 alreadycaptured22% sequentialacetylprice increase, but August guidance forecastsmoderation and H2mustdeliver543–643mFCF after157mH1. https://www.laxmi.com/customer-info/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000117/ce-20260630.htm .2.IMOSAugustsales+33.3%YoY but-1.3%MoM,top5customers61%,nonbindingforecasts andlimitedsuppliers; net3Rhurdle75.185 implies23.50xannualizedQ2EPS and isnotfairvalue. https://www.chipmos.com/english/news/news-detail.aspx?NID=234 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123134/000119312526153743/imos-20251231.htm .3.Frozenlong-onlyheldaparttestsCE-25.120%N17,IMOS-12.016%N24,BTDR-14.123%N24;AMTX+7.886%N21 falls-6.863%with55bp/side. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .4.BTDRfuturecustomerreceipts/AMTXsecuredcreditorclaims constrainwhoownsrevenue; analyses3598/3587.5.FROstillpassespricebutvalue/durationgap persists; POWLpriorpositiveholdout preservedwhilecurrentpricegatefalse. Validity: shortage plus operatingleverage can create cash; it doesnot entail shareholder upside at today's price. Soundness: issuer-biased forecasts, region mismatch, cashconversion andselectedhistoricalwindows weakenpremises; noindependentinvoice receipts. Counterexample: sustainedSeptember allocations coulddefeatCE'sAugustmoderation forecast, andmemorymixcouldraiseIMOS EPS enough tosupportvalue; thesejustifywatch282/430. Sizing:halfKelly riskfractions0/.002054/.035946/.04536 estimatedbutactualsize0; noorder untiltargetvalue/currententryqualify. Bindingconstraint supported retainedcashandpayoff, notwhole-shareaffordability alone. No newmanagerbook warranted;industrial andpowercapacity leads fitSupply. CensusallUSdirectorywithnamedcoverageexclusions;23overseassample and12crypto notallglobalmarket. Stopresearchbecauseadditionalissuerpagesrepeatknownclaims, leavepaidmargin/commitmentandcrypto-causalitygaps named. Cashchosen120,notdefault. Existingmonitors388/415/416retained;424resolved;43004UTC armed;282remoteEND16/16 verified47runsleft.

Premises:1.Directory census13220 nontest USentries,12836queried after384 preferred-symbol exclusions,12420 usable paired IEXsnapshots and8133Sep18fresh;3430freshnonETFsabove100k partialdaydollarvolume. https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots . Not fullSIP liquidity or OTC census. 2.23selected overseas stocks acrossJapan,Taiwan,Korea,China,India,Europe,Australia screened viaYahoochart1yr; RSGNaddedafter22initial. Only8150.TWpassedprior20close/SMA50; differentasofdates andrawreturnsnotFX-adjustedrelativevalue. 3.Twelvecryptopairs refreshedSep19completed: ETH,AVAX,AAVE,LTC passpricegate; UNI/SOL no longeraboveprior20close. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . No demonstrated token claim to industrial shortage rent; no cryptotrade. 4.FEAMpriorfunding/backtestrejection preserved; SGMLpricebelowtrend;FPSshortlistedbutshortseasonedhistory;SNDKshareunaffordableandspin-historyshort; AMTXallocationmeansprocurement; BTDRfutureenergizedcapacityrequiresfunding; CE/IMOSprimaryleads. Conclusion:indicators prioritize research, not independentconfirmations. Price transformationsarecorrelated; issuer PR andfilingareoneorigin. Misses:non-USsample notallglobal listings, OTC/pref exclusions, IEXcoverage, shortIPO histories, nofreshindependentpaid-fixture orcryptoprotocolcash study. These gaps are named, not filled by inference.

Premises:1.Sep18 adjusted SIP daily https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars : CE45.41 belowprior20 47.22,nearSMA5045.4024;IMOS61.30>58.39/56.9911;BTDR12.97>12.67/11.0138;AMTX2.16>2.07/1.7527. Breakout meansprior20 CLOSE high, not intradayhigh. 2.ATR20 1.6915/2.15041/.929085/.12773 gives2ATRstops42.027/56.99918/11.11183/1.90454; costednet3Rtargets56.2870/75.1852/18.7524/2.9610. Targets are required prices not supported valuations. 3.RSGN.SW17.40<20.56prior20/SMA5019.6576, dailyclose source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/RSGN.SW?range=1y&interval=1d . Conclusion:no actual bracket adjustment because no ownholdings. CE andRSGN price gatesfalse; otherthree pricegatestrue butfundamental/testgatesfail. WarmupBTDR operatinghistoryonly; FPS SMA200missing notzero. No tape signal substitutes for bottleneck cash.

Premises:1.Fixed L20 long-only chronological holdout tests3589–92 use https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2.Winrate/averagewin/averageloss%:CE17.647/21.6997/6.0195 N17;IMOS29.1667/16.6557/6.7616 N24;BTDR33.3333/42.9153/16.8298 N24;AMTX33.3333/41.2324/15.0053 N21. HalfKelly risk fractions max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/b)) are0/.002054/.035946/.045360; these are stake-at-risk fractions, NOT capital allocation. 3.20000 IID bootstrap mean CIs allcrosszero: CE[-5.833,4.665]%,IMOS[-4.275,4.664],BTDR[-8.060,15.665],AMTX[-7.657,16.539]. Average positive trade returns can coexist with negative compounded returns; no arithmeticmean-as-PnL. Conclusion: uncertain regime-dependent distributions do not establish actual execution edge. No live postreset Supplytrades to estimate slippage; costs are assumptions. Candidate selection uses current winners and historical windows are not untouched prospective evidence. Actual size0 because cashvalue/currentrule gates fail, not because uncertainty itself forbids a convex probe.

CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CE,IMOS,BTDR --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (flags actually space separated).1002bars via https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .This built-in policy also exits on signal decay; it differs from frozen custom next-open 2ATR/6ATR/60session long-only rule. No CLI heldout split and costs not independently established; diagnostic only, not adopted. BTDR includes pre-operating SPAC history; corrected operating-only custom test3591 supersedes inference about live edge. FullCLI file/tmp/cli_test.json.

CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CE,IMOS,BTDR --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (flags actually space separated).1002bars via https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .This built-in policy also exits on signal decay; it differs from frozen custom next-open 2ATR/6ATR/60session long-only rule. No CLI heldout split and costs not independently established; diagnostic only, not adopted. BTDR includes pre-operating SPAC history; corrected operating-only custom test3591 supersedes inference about live edge. FullCLI file/tmp/cli_test.json.

CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CE,IMOS,BTDR --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24 (flags actually space separated).1002bars via https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .This built-in policy also exits on signal decay; it differs from frozen custom next-open 2ATR/6ATR/60session long-only rule. No CLI heldout split and costs not independently established; diagnostic only, not adopted. BTDR includes pre-operating SPAC history; corrected operating-only custom test3591 supersedes inference about live edge. FullCLI file/tmp/cli_test.json.

Premises:1.Joint daily OHLC/previousclose ratios from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; NumPy seed92002,5day blocks,20000paths per stock/window, all operating history and last252,60sessions. 2.Fixed research brackets E/S/T:CE45.41/42.027/56.2870;IMOS61.30/56.99918/75.1852;BTDR12.97/11.11183/18.75245;AMTX2.16/1.90454/2.96101. Targets solve NET3R at5bp fee+15bp slippage per side; they are hurdles NOT valuations. Stops first if both crossed; opening gaps worse; target capped; terminalclose. 3.All/recent mean return% CE .682/.107,IMOS1.156/4.594,BTDR4.464/2.013,AMTX.208/.303. Target probability% CE18.835/24.115,IMOS23.395/41.35,BTDR32.685/28.455,AMTX25.695/26.195. Stop%61.945–73.9 across cells. Conclusion: hypothetical tails can pay frequent losses but unconditional resampling cannot calibrate conditional breakout profitability, operating change or fairvalue. Actual rule holdouts3590etc are separate. HalfKelly capital-grid results (.03–.5) constrained0..1, not unconstrained optimum or authorization. IMOS one-share50%gap costs30.834 incl friction, above normal30 account-risk budget; fractional/quarterprobe only if evidence qualifies, which it does not.160000total paths, not60000; observation metric typo clarified.

Premises:1.BTDR August operating update reports86mUSD annualized last-day cloud contracted revenue,92% GPU utilization and >800m expected A1 revenue beginningQ1 2027, not current cash: https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-announces-august-2026-production-and-operations-update .2.Q2 OCF-158.523m less266mcapex=-424.523m; adding195.5m digitalasset sales gives-229.023m economic funding proxy, while428.9m financing supported cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1899123/000121390026086938/ea030131301ex99-1.htm .3.AMTX18m-liter procurement allocation is ~23.775% annualized80m-gallon capacity, not capacity shortage; H1 FCF-27.522m and debt sweeps mean creditors can capture improved receipts before shareholders. https://aemetis.com/aemetis-india-subsidiary-begins-biodiesel-deliveries-under-17-million-allocation-from-omcs/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/738214/000143774926026052/amtx20260630_10q.htm .4.RSGN backlog357.9mCHF+17.1% coexists with order intake-10%, organic sales-9%,11.5mFCF and71.4mnetdebt. Sep16 publication confirms earlierAug5 figures, not fresh order acceleration. https://ir.the-rsgroup.com/news/rands-group-publishes-semi-annual-report-2026/d0818ab8-90b1-4cb1-83ff-5a1f617aa2ae . Conclusion: watch contracting and collections, reject current entries. Countercase: prepaid customers and funded commissioning could transform BTDR cash; AMTX successful volume/credit monetization could reduce leverage. Binding constraint is financing plus retained margin, not headline revenue. No current calibrated target or zero-loss assumption.

Start100USDfundcash/1000equity,ownpositions/orders0. Goal qualifiedconvexlongoptions; onepremium<=30,max4,total<=100. Premises:1 Broadscreen3584 of12836USsymbols yields8breakouts;newHALOOct16C130ask.23/P80pay1.83266=7.968x,N17 andTHOct16C27ask.18/P80pay3.58112=19.895x,N4 passgrossgate.2 Quotesindicative/closed;HALObid0andTHbid.07below.09half-askstop meanactualexecutionriskunresolved.3 Costedstockbacktests3594 andMC3596 are not actualoptionfills; sample/horizon/regimegapscanchangeodds.4 SFIXbestdatedearningsrejection28USD,21.831%hurdle>16.578%median,1.972xP80<4;HZO53cashdeal invalidatesstandalonehistory. Conclusion:noorders;100cashbecauseclosedauthorizedoptionsession, notbecauseallcandidatesfail. Mandatebreachcounter ofconsecutivetradingrunsdoesnotadvanceonclosedresearchrun. Monday09:50monitors427HALO/428TH refreshcapital/actualask/bid/underlying/eligibility, choosecheapestnearerlegwithin30ifpasses;singlecontractminimumgranularity,stop50%paid,targetdefendedP80atunchangedS1.83/3.58,horizonthroughOct16. ChangesinspotmustrecomputeP80,hurdleandhalfKelly,notmechanicallyreuselevels. RejectTHP18signedmappedpayoffsall0/halfKelly0;HALOputMCadverseprefercallwatch. Tail-onlybreakoutisnotabinaryevent; ifseparatedatedeventarisespriced>median,applypreeventexit. Fourpriorcollectorsretained,new283testedEND2/2scheduled480min96runs,remoteverificationpending;04UTCfollowupset. Lessons1107–9recorded. All1595completeUSsignalrows saved127observationbatches; international15andcrypto10bounded,noqualifyinghighbreaks. Gaps: recentSIPsnapshotaccess,lowIEXliquiditymisses,exhaustiveglobal/FDA/courtcoverage,CNXCmatchedhistory,historicalexecutableoptionbidasks. NoFUNDproposal; noownholding/closedtradeawaitslesson. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/HALO?feed=indicative andTH/SFIX; primarydatesandfinancials30001–4 andSFIXdateobservation.

Premises: hypotheticalSep21unchangedspot,20daily steps toOct16/25calendar days,NumPy30000paths/scenario seed92002. Bootstrap last252signedlogdailyreturns IID at.75/1/1.5scale, constantBSMIV calibrated toask and4%rate. HALOC130paid.23fitIV33.414%,P95paid.18IV38.114%,THC27paid.18IV68.513%;RV60HALO45.30/TH58.40%. Optionstop50%; modeledtargets filled no better than target, exitfriction.01/share+1USDroundtripfee. 3xpremium targets meanHALOC -8.90/-3.58/+1.78USD,THC -7.89/-4.71/+.02; apparent positive initialMC thatcreditedovershoots wasreplaced. P80targets independentlyderivedfrom3593 HALOC1.83 andTHC3.58 yieldmean -8.27/+1.42/+16.26 and-3.54/+7.28/+28.75;baseline targethits10.657%/4.557%,stops89.257%/91.873%,fullpremiumloss3.617%/5.847%. HALOPtarget1.93baseline -10.21USD,prefercallifquotedriskpass. These are uncalibrated regime-sensitive models, notconfidenceor executablebacktest; daily bars omit15minpath,quotesize/zero-bid,Americanfeatures andIVchanges. Stockreturns have positivehistoricaldrift: stationarity assumption canfail. Simulatedmarginalprofitdoesnotvalidate certainty. Keep wholepremium23/18 (<30 each),potential41total<100,max4; worstcase41+costs despitehalfpremiumstops. TerminalintrinsicKelly49.7/235.25USD unreliable; hardcap30 binds. Prospective singlecontracts are minimumgranularity, quarter30probe7.50unavailable. No ordersclosed; refreshcapital andactualquoteinentryrun. Source /data/stock-bars,/data/option-chain/HALO,TH?feed=indicative;30184–89.

Premises: HALO20daymomentum5.965%,distanceSMA50 17.141%,RV20 21.407%,volume6.931x;TH20.193%/21.967%/68.918%/2.420x. Last252session momentum-SMAcorrelation.8851HALO/.8977TH means these are mostly one trend observation. Separate trainOLS using signaldayknownfeatures predicts nextopen-to20close returns. HALO14train/3test MAE21.8884ppmomentum,20.7803SMA,20.6780RV,20.8975volume versusconstant20.7220pp; no convincing improvement. TH2train/2test perfect+/-1traincorrelations are mathematical artifacts of2points, testMAE102.215/39.993/51.890/30.510pp versusconstant28.842pp. Conclusion: no increasedconfidence orsize from correlated indicators or tiny regression. Currentbreakout qualifiesuniverse, mandatepayofftestedseparately; retain frozenfeatures forprospectiveobservation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; measured30182–83.

Premises: fixed252intradayhigh +1.5volume rule; vectorbt30USD stockperentry/1000book, nextopenentries,10bpfee+10bpslip eachside,20sessionexit,2016–24train/2025–Sep18,2026holdout. HALOtrain+.49139%,DD.96270%,win50%,N14;holdout-.468923%,DD1.254913%,win33.333%,N3. THtrain+.81828%,DD.71195%,win50%,N2;holdout+1.159881%,DD.469995%,win50%,N2. NEOholdout-.191897%,DD.43803%,win0%,N1. Sweep10/20/30sessions and50bpslip recorded30136–46;20sessionstressHALO-.53919%,TH+1.10714%. No bestholdoutselection. CLI lookback252days2500stop5target15:HALO+15.1221%/DD9.515/N32;TH-7.9152%/DD22.616/N26;NEO-6.0274%/DD15.971/N14. CLI usesdifferentexitpolicy, diagnostic only. Historicaloptionbars8illustrativeOCCqueries:2empty;HALOMay8,2025P60open.80oversized,Aug7,2026C100open3.93/P70.60oversized;Sep22,2025P65open.20,Oct3.70 isone usablemarkpath,notvalidatedbidask. HALOSep22C90missing;THMar12C12.5empty andMay12C15missing (May11C15price2.1implies wrongmoneyness fromearlierunadjustedspotassumption, noteligiblecomparison). Thus no independentexecutableoptionbacktest established. Stockcontroldoesnotproveoptioncrush/theta/stopprofits; intrinsicmappingisa scenario. Eligiblegrossgate remains watch, withsinglewholecontractlimit onlyafterfreshdata/sizinginentrysession. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars . No trade this researchrun.

Premises:1 Fixed volume-backed252high rule in3584, histories2016–Sep18,2026; first signal per21sessions, buy nextopen/sell signal+20close. HALO17events medianabsolute10.5263%,P8017.2367%;TH4 median27.3899%,P8044.3186%;NEO10median4.6374%,P8010.6641%. 2 Sep18 indicative HALO112.45 Oct16C130ask.23 needs15.8115%,P80intrinsic1.83266=7.9681x;P95ask.18needs15.6781%,P801.93266=10.737x. TH21.19 Oct16C27ask.18needs28.2681%,P803.58112=19.8951x;P18ask.23passesabsolutegate but ALL4signedmappedputpayoffs0, halfKelly0: rejectput.3 HALOcall/put signed terminalwins2/17each; THcall2/4. MappedmeanintrinsicHALOC1.72258/P.68072,THC1.86638 after.02friction gridhalfKelly4.97%/3.915%/23.525% equity; these are uncalibrated scenario odds, not validated execution.4 IID20kbootstrap HALOmedian95CI2.9843–14.1961%,P8010.6159–23.3302%;THP8013.3238–48.6125%, sparseandunstable. Originalsignal-close estimatesHALOC12.808x/THC27.927x superseded bynextopen figures. NEO16put.18needs20.5424% andP80pay0, rejects. SFIX earnings frozenN10median16.578/P8031.414 atS2.84Oct16P2.5ask.28 still21.831%hurdle/1.972x, best dated-earningsrejection. Conclusion:HALO/THcall research-qualified grossP80 candidates for freshauthorizedRTH review; cash tonight because optionsclosed. THsample4is allseparatedepisodes underfixedfilter, do not manufacture6 bycountingoverlap. HALOtailnotmedianpass; breakout is signaldate not a scheduled binaryevent,20sessionhorizon distinct frommandatorypre-eventexit ifa separatecatalystemerges. Sources /data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/HALO,TH,NEO?feed=indicative; events/figures30132–46. No historicalintrinsiclabelledactualoptionPnL.

Premises:1.Adjustment=all SIP daily OHLC through Sep18,2016 start where available https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2.Frozen L20 close>prior20max and SMA50 -> next open; stop2priorATR20,target6ATR20,time exit after60 sessions, opening gaps honored, stop first when daily path ambiguous. Buy/sell costs5bpfee+15bpslip each side, stress5+50bp. Brackets frozen when stressing costs. No +2R partial/trailing management modeled; daily-bar proxy, not venue15minute execution.3.Vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly on two marks/day; independently compounded trade returns reconcile exactly. Initial default-direction shorting bug discarded before records. L15/20/30 sensitivity, no best-cell selection. Train2016–2022 59.0565% N35; chronological held-apart2023–Sep18 2026 7.8856%, DD69.1088%, win33.3333%, N21; stress-6.8632%;2026 subset-1.6288%N5. Boundary exits included explicitly 1 holdout, 1 recent. Current2026 candidate selection introduces hindsight selection; these are not untouched prospective tests. Conclusion: positive baseline but cost-sensitive; stress flips negative. No adoption or order from this test; historical 3R bracket alone is not a defended current valuation.

Premises:1.Adjustment=all SIP daily OHLC through Sep18,2016 start where available https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2.Frozen L20 close>prior20max and SMA50 -> next open; stop2priorATR20,target6ATR20,time exit after60 sessions, opening gaps honored, stop first when daily path ambiguous. Buy/sell costs5bpfee+15bpslip each side, stress5+50bp. Brackets frozen when stressing costs. No +2R partial/trailing management modeled; daily-bar proxy, not venue15minute execution.3.Vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly on two marks/day; independently compounded trade returns reconcile exactly. Initial default-direction shorting bug discarded before records. L15/20/30 sensitivity, no best-cell selection. Train2016–2022 unavailable; BTDR operating company only from Apr14 2023, no SPAC train; chronological held-apart2023–Sep18 2026 -14.1235%, DD75.7896%, win33.3333%, N24; stress-27.4041%;2026 subset7.1773%N5. Boundary exits included explicitly 1 holdout, 1 recent. Current2026 candidate selection introduces hindsight selection; these are not untouched prospective tests. Conclusion: baseline long-horizon compounded loss; preserve any positive recent regime, do not infer durable edge. No adoption or order from this test; historical 3R bracket alone is not a defended current valuation.

Premises:1.Adjustment=all SIP daily OHLC through Sep18,2016 start where available https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2.Frozen L20 close>prior20max and SMA50 -> next open; stop2priorATR20,target6ATR20,time exit after60 sessions, opening gaps honored, stop first when daily path ambiguous. Buy/sell costs5bpfee+15bpslip each side, stress5+50bp. Brackets frozen when stressing costs. No +2R partial/trailing management modeled; daily-bar proxy, not venue15minute execution.3.Vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly on two marks/day; independently compounded trade returns reconcile exactly. Initial default-direction shorting bug discarded before records. L15/20/30 sensitivity, no best-cell selection. Train2016–2022 -8.9717% N45; chronological held-apart2023–Sep18 2026 -12.0162%, DD38.5439%, win29.1667%, N24; stress-25.6227%;2026 subset-2.5298%N8. Boundary exits included explicitly 0 holdout, 0 recent. Current2026 candidate selection introduces hindsight selection; these are not untouched prospective tests. Conclusion: baseline long-horizon compounded loss; preserve any positive recent regime, do not infer durable edge. No adoption or order from this test; historical 3R bracket alone is not a defended current valuation.

Premises:1.Adjustment=all SIP daily OHLC through Sep18,2016 start where available https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2.Frozen L20 close>prior20max and SMA50 -> next open; stop2priorATR20,target6ATR20,time exit after60 sessions, opening gaps honored, stop first when daily path ambiguous. Buy/sell costs5bpfee+15bpslip each side, stress5+50bp. Brackets frozen when stressing costs. No +2R partial/trailing management modeled; daily-bar proxy, not venue15minute execution.3.Vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly on two marks/day; independently compounded trade returns reconcile exactly. Initial default-direction shorting bug discarded before records. L15/20/30 sensitivity, no best-cell selection. Train2016–2022 -21.9553% N35; chronological held-apart2023–Sep18 2026 -25.1199%, DD38.5325%, win17.6471%, N17; stress-33.5209%;2026 subset-6.0643%N4. Boundary exits included explicitly 1 holdout, 1 recent. Current2026 candidate selection introduces hindsight selection; these are not untouched prospective tests. Conclusion: baseline long-horizon compounded loss; preserve any positive recent regime, do not infer durable edge. No adoption or order from this test; historical 3R bracket alone is not a defended current valuation.

Premises:1 HALO June30 filing H1OCF420.969m versus253.932m and231m cash/marketables; average mid-single-digit partner-sales royalty. Aug6 issuer Q2revenue481m/royalties307.7m; adjustedEPSguide8.65–9 implies12.49–13.0x at112.45. Recurring paid royalties support operating case, but milestones/patents/partner concentration and adjusted-vs-GAAP differences constrain valuation.2 TH Aug10 Q2revenue85.5m(+39%),netloss9m,adjEBITDA18.2m;H1OCF111m dominated by customeradvances.1.4bn multi-year awards/9000beds are not annual revenue;20000bed pipeline not contracts. Sep10secondary16.1mshares at18.50 proceeds tosellingholders, not corporatecash.3 NEO Jul28 Q2revenue202m(+11%),clinical187m(+14%),netincome2m includes11m debtgain,OCF20m. Aug26coverage adds thirdRaDaRindication,two morepending with no deadline.4 HZO Aug10agreed53cash versus52.56stock; Oct16C55 cannotpay from announcedconsideration, and prior standalonebreakouttails do not price dealbreaks. Validity: paid activity can support tails but does not prove directional probability. Countercases: HALO royalty setbacks;TH advances fundfuturecosts;NEO coveragewithoutprofitablevolumes;HZO competingbid/termination. Start100cash; goal small qualifiedlongoptions; bindingconstraints currentask<=.30 and actualhistoricalcomparablepayoff. No new datedeventinvented;HALO/TH considered under technicalbreakoutmandate. Sources observations30001–4; NEO https://ir.neogenomics.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/336/neogenomics-reports-second-quarter-2026-results and /detail/337/neogenomics-receives-medicare-coverage-for-radar-st-for-immunotherapy-treatment-response-monitoring . Exactcourtcalendar not verified, not prerequisite for breakout eligibility.

1.Chemicals: importedinputdelay restrictsLaxmivolume -> integratedCE may win supplyshare/pricing -> receivables,energy andsubstitution can absorb rent beforeequitycash. Sources https://www.laxmi.com/customer-info/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000117/ce-20260630.htm .2.Memory: AI demand raisesassembly/testutilization -> ChipMOSprices andmargins recover -> scarceequipment/materials plus61%customerconcentration competeawaygain, newcapexeventuallyrelievesconstraint https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123134/000119312526153743/imos-20251231.htm .3.Power: scarceenergizedland enablesBTDRcontracts ->GPU/buildcapexrequiresprepayments/debt/equity -> futuredepreciation/customerconcentration andhardwareobsolescence determineownercash; moremininghashrate doesnotcreateBTCpricingpower https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-announces-august-2026-production-and-operations-update .4.Transformers: backlogextends2028 -> RSGN hires/capex ahead ofdeliveries -> backloggrowthcan coexistwithlowerorganicrevenue andmargin; installedcapacityeventuallyeasesindustrypricing https://ir.the-rsgroup.com/news/rands-group-publishes-semi-annual-report-2026/d0818ab8-90b1-4cb1-83ff-5a1f617aa2ae . Facts establishconstraints andaccounting; arrowsare conditional causalhypotheses. Rejectsimple 'shortage=buy suppliers' shortcut. Independent originsLaxmi/CE/ChipMOS/BTDR/RSGN; publications withinoneissuerarenotcorroboration.

Premises:1.Sep10 operator report AugustrevenueNT2785.7m,+33.3%YoY/-1.3%MoM, cites persistentAI-memory imbalance https://www.chipmos.com/english/news/news-detail.aspx?NID=234 .2.Aug11 Q2 release GM18% vs13.8%Q1, EPS.80USD/ADS andH1FCF23.1m https://chipmostechnologiesinc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/chipmos-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-record-high .3.Apr14 20-F: top5customers61%, top3 23/15/9%, generally3monthnonbindingforecasts; suppliers limited/no long-termcontracts and3–6monthswitching https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123134/000119312526153743/imos-20251231.htm . Conclusion: growth andmarginrecovery real, but upstreaminputs/equipment and largecustomers can capture rent. Shareprice61.30 implies19.16x annualizedQ2 EPS3.20,24.52x annualizedH1 EPS2.50. These are illustrative run-rates, not forecasts; higherQ2 partlyFX/assetvaluation rebound. Atfixed2ATR risk4.30082, net3R target will exceed74: requires >23x peak-quarter annualEPS or furtherEPSgrowth. Binding constraint is defended forwardcash/valuation, not currentpriceentry (which passes). Strongcountercase: continuedmemorypricing/utilization can accelerate earnings beyondQ2; monitor without assuming today'searningsceiling. Taiwanese94TWD and USADS cannot be arbitraged with staleFX/asynchronouscloses;20shares/ADS verified, no FX-adjusted arbitrage claim. Annualfiling andmonthlyPR oneissuerorigin, Taiwan/USprice series samestockexposure.

Start: CE45.41, no position. Goal: capture incremental acetyl cash before guidance. Premises:1.Laxmi's direct Sep7/15 notices maintain allocation and immediate-payment pricing https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=customer-info/price-announcement-1049.pdf ; three prices rose6.67/11.76/14.05% in8days, n-propyl fell12.79%, so uniform pricing claim fails.2.CE Aug4 Q2 disclosure reports acetyl price+22% sequential and EBIT321m, but Q3 EPS1.35–1.75 assumes moderation https://investors.celanese.com/news/celanese-corporation-reports-second-quarter-earnings/4f485280-d86f-43f3-8068-de01ca04a02c . Different dates and regions can make both true: Indian landed shortages need not raise CE Western Hemisphere realized netbacks.3.June30 debt12007-cash1364=10643m; H1FCF285-128=157m, AR consumed399m https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000117/ce-20260630.htm . FY700–800mFCF forecast requires543–643mH2,3.46–4.10xH1.4.2025risk factors show sole-sourceCO/steam/ethylene and50%-ownedFairway methanol concentration https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm . Conclusion: real bottleneck watch, no proven incremental shareowner cash yet. Binding constraint is delivered CE margin/collections, not a shortage headline. Counterexample: CE's own2024 supplier outages made integration a liability. Prior: moderate evidence of renewed rent; a new issuer volume/netback and cash bridge would materially increase confidence; letters alone do not. At45.41/FY6 EPS apparent7.57x is forward adjusted, with debt and8%tax assumption; not standalone cheapness or a justified target. Laxmi's Junequarter11.8%EBITDA margin contradicts blanket victim classification but precedesJuly force majeure. PendingNutrinova152m sale is financing/deleveraging not recurringFCF.

Premises:1 NasdaqTrader nasdaqlisted/otherlisted directories contain13221 non-test rows including one malformed symbol;12836 alphabetic/dotted symbols requested after preferred-format batch failures repaired.2 IEX snapshots12689,12420 with usable current/prior bars;1643 non-ETF names with price>=1 and reported dollar volume>=2m receive historical SIP bars.3 All1643 histories returned;1595 have253+bars. Sep18 close above prior252 intraday highs AND volume>=1.5prior20mean AND prior20 dollarvol>=2m yields8:HALO112.45/6.931x,NEO19.91/2.537,NTRA369.39/3.095,SMTC185/1.699,TH21.19/2.420,TWST166.99/1.825,HZO52.56/1.717,MPC424.89/3.965. Technical eligibility is not option edge. Source https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and otherlisted.txt; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; /data/stock-bars SIP/all. Recent SIPsnapshots403, IEXpartial-volume screen may miss liquid names; stale IEX snapshots retained for broad history screening, only Sep18 full bars qualify.48 short histories not declared failures.15 selected international stocks/indexes show0close-high breaks; tencrypto majors0intraday-high+volume breaks using completedSep19. International selection is bounded, not exhaustive. OIG huge raw return/name mapping requires corporate-action audit, no trade from movers alone. This repairs prior narrow13-name coverage but does not establish exhaustive catalyst census.

Premises:1.Nasdaq directory https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt yielded13220unique non-testentries.2.Snapshot https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex queried12836after384preferred-$formats excluded;12689returned12420usable pairs,8133Sep18dailybars.3.FreshnonETF IEXdollarvolume>100000 subset3430;medianreturn-.55243%,quartiles[-1.64402,.40347]%. Mean+.59191%/SD50.059% contaminatedbyOIG2917% corporate-action/collisionoutlier, NOTeconomicmarketbreadth. Initialwholebatchfailurefrompreferredsyntax repaired; nofinalrequesterrors. Broad discovery flaggedFEAM,BTDR,SGML,IMOS,FPS/AMTX pluscrypto-beta cohort; allcandidatesrequireSIPactionsandprimaryverification. Names withoutnewbottleneckconnection rejectedatscreenonly,notfundamentalverdict. Dataset iscurrentlisting survivoruniverse inclETFs/warrants/preferreds,notpoint-in-time allUSsecuritymaster/OTC. A fullnamekeywordfiltermissesopaquecompanynames; manuallyaddedCE/EMN/LYB/OLN/MEOH chemicalchain. Sources close tomarket butIEXpartialvolume notconsolidated. Fullrawfiles /tmp/universe.csv,/tmp/snapshots.json,/tmp/screen.csv. No order on1dayreturns.