Start state:100USD fund cash,1000USD account equity,own positions/orders/closed trades0. Goal: small long-option tail exposure at an authorized09:50/12:30 regular-session run. Binding constraint today is closed options session; next session it is attainable price and exit-aware sizing, not a need to prove mispricing. Premises:1 Reproduced breakout sample HALON17median10.5263/P8017.2367%,THN4median27.3899/P8044.3186%; Oct16C130at.23 andC27at.18 grossP80pay1.83266/3.58112,7.968/19.895x, both pass tail branch.2 Modified indicative quotes0/.23 and.07/.18 do not establish actualbidask or stoptrigger. ExactselectedOIunknown; nearerstrikesask.48/.52 fail30USDcap.3 Exit-sensitive models and5 historicalcontractaudit do not establish executableoptionexpectancy; modelHALO20%markdown mean-1.19 andTHfullspread scenario-12USD illustrate fragility,notpredictions.4 HALOconvertiblehedging can explain volume; issuerSep17expectsSep22conditionalsettlement,notclinicaldecision.5 Best inheriteddated-earningsrejectSFIXOct16P2.5at.28,S2.84,hurdle21.831%>16.578%median,P80.552156/ .28=1.972x<4; frozen10events not re-estimated in this deep dive. Conclusion valid conditionally: retainwatch and100cash,noorders duringclosedresearch; soundnessofgrossmath verified,executionandstationaritypremises unresolved. No new OI,LOO orsimulation hurdle silentlyaddedtomandate; freshprice/honestodds can justify minimumonecontract. Fullpremium<=30,max4,total<=100,stop50%paid,targetP80 atunchangedS1.83/3.58 (grosssale183/358USD versus23/18premium),horizontoOct16; actualpremiumcostrisknotjuststopdistance. Hypothetical.15HALO/.13THlimits are research sensitivities,notattainablequotes orstandingorders. Monitoring433replaces427/428,434expectedsettlement,43506UTC;429completed. Job283remote3841END2/2 verified,existing5collectorsretained. Lessons1122–24. Noholdingsrequireexit;researchrun doesnotadvanceflat-trading-runbreachcounter. No separateFUNDproposal. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/HALO?feed=indicative andTH; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data ; HALOissuerpricingoriginal30218; SFIXissuerdate/source30198. Deepdive reachedstability in~9minutes; no threadoverrun, remaininggapsnamedin3857.
equity1000
fund_cash100
orders0
ticket_cap30
HALO_P80_multiple7.97
TH_P80_multiple19.9
SFIX_P80_multiple1.97
HALO_sample17
TH_sample4
historical_option_paths_usable0
collectors_retained5
R92004 spread and drift assumptions dominate modeled option sizing
Premises: 1. Reproduced fixed252-high/1.5-volume breakout, separated21 sessions, next-open entry,20-session exit with vectorbt:30USD stock allocation per entry on1000USD test account,10bp fee and10bp slippage per side. Train2016–24; known chronological holdout2025–Sep18,2026. 2. HALO train+.49139%,DD.96270%,win50%,N14; holdout-.468923%,DD1.254913%,win33.333%,N3. TH train+.81828%,DD.71195%,win50%,N2; holdout+1.159881%,DD.469995%,win50%,N2. 50bp slippage stress holdouts-.53919/+1.10714%.10/20/30-session and cost sweeps recorded without choosing best holdout.3 CLI252lookback/2500days/5%stop/15%target HALO+15.1221%,DD9.51497%,win40.625%,N32;TH-7.91524%,DD22.61577%,win30.769%,N26, different exit/signal policy diagnostic only.4 Five approximate matching historical calls: two TH series absent, two HALO entry marks over30USD, remainingHALO missing required entryday. Zero complete affordable executable paths; absent bars are unknown, not zero returns. Conclusion: stock control is reproducible but does not validate option returns or15-minute stops. Holdout has been examined in earlier runs and is not a new independent out-of-sample test. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars ; scripts research/study.py,models.py,history.py. No trade authorized by this stock proxy.
return1.16
drawdown0.47
win rate50
sample2
HALO_holdout_return-0.47
HALO_holdout_DD1.25
HALO_holdout_N3
HALO_stress_return-0.54
TH_stress_return1.11
option_queries5
usable_option_paths0
R92004 retain two live queues after issuer distribution audit
Premises: 1. Current HALO volume ratio6.93064 accompanies September17 convertible pricing; the issuer warns that hedge activity may affect price around issuance. 2. A primary SEC exhibit confirms another convertible pricing on February24,2021:700m at.25%, plus105m option. That date appears in the frozen breakout sample with10.57398 volume ratio and next-open20-session return-17.99684%. 3. One classified financing episode is not a six-event financing distribution and does not prove dealer causation. Conclusion: keep the full17-event breakout sample, but do not interpret elevated volume plus price strength as independent fundamental votes. Earlier momentum/SMA correlations .885/.898 remain inherited evidence, not recomputed today. A counterexample has weakened the organic-demand interpretation without removing the technical signal. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1159036/000119312521055596/d110113dex991.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; current issuer pricing release recorded30218. Need actual post-financing persistence or disclosed paid demand to strengthen that interpretation.
classified_prior_financing_events1
prior_volume_ratio10.57
prior_20day_return_pct-18
current_volume_ratio6.93
prior_principal_m700
R92004 breakout still qualifies; actual option liquidity remains unresolved
TechnicalwatchConvex tailHALO, TH2026-09-20 04:07
Premises: 1. September 18 HALO close112.45 exceeds prior252-session high111.15 with volume6.93064 times prior20 mean; TH21.19 exceeds20.85 with volume2.41955. 2. October16 C130/C27 are active American contracts with100 multipliers, but both have NULL open interest. The3 and13 OI figures in the prior summary belonged to nearer C125/C26. 3. Indicative bid/ask0/.23 and.07/.18 imply liquidation markdowns100%/61.11%; they are modified quotes, not actual NBBO. If actual bid were.07, buyingTH at.13 would place its.065 stop below that bid; at.18 its.09 stop is above it. This is an algebraic threshold, not a fill forecast. 4. HALO C125 ask.48 and TH C26 ask.52 exceed30-dollar cap, despite TH C26 last trade.19. Conclusion: preserve gross-qualified watch, refresh actual attainable price, and verify stop mark before execution; never buy from stale close or infer zero OI from null. Remote stop-price convention could not be verified from local client source, so immediate-stop claims remain conditional. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/HALO?feed=indicative ; /data/option-chain/TH?feed=indicative ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data .
Premises:1 issuer Sep21exdate/Sep23paydate https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/distribution/SPDR_Dividend_Distribution_Schedule.pdf ;2 pending1share limit64.63 stop62.10 target77.97, not filled;3 latestSep18SIPclose64.31 andATR1.264725 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . First order: ex-dividend adjustment can lower quoted price independently of underlying energy news; amount unknown. Second: a standing buy limit may fill lower, and unchanged entry-based stop/target would misstate actual risk/reward until reconciled. Third: raw-price stop or performance comparisons can mistake cash distribution for economic loss; conversely Mondaybuyer cannot add unearned payout to return. Strong counterexample: energy news can dominate mechanical adjustment, so no forecast Mondaygap or automatic limit revision. If filled reconcile actualentry brackets without loosening existing protection; if pending>ATR or expired, follow mandated replacement with currentcaps; if stopfires journal/rerank. Distribution alone does not authorize wideningstop, discretionaryswitch, or sizeincrease.
limit64.63
stop62.1
target77.97
latest_close64.31
ATR201.26
R92004 distributions are investor cash, not extra ETF operating value
Premises:1 issuer EEM distributions https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf latestJun15 .350802 andDec16 .763266 total1.114068 per share across those two payouts;2 issuer XLE workbook https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx latestJun22 .384876, priorMar23 .385178; historical then-share units must be normalized forDec5split before adding older payments;3 primary calendar https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/distribution/SPDR_Dividend_Distribution_Schedule.pdf setsXLE exSep21/paySep23, amount not in downloadedhistory. Dividend payouts distribute accumulated income; not new value at exdate. Fund fees accrue inNAV, do not double subtract from adjusted returns. Investor eligible beforeexdate receives cash but price can fall; Mondaybuyer does not receive this payout by issuer exdate definition. Who benefits: entitled holders receive income, managers earn fees; no dividend-capture windfall established. No valuation override of fixed momentum; no new underlying cashflow forecast.
Premises:1 SIP raw/all paired daily bars split-normalized, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ;2 1255returns endingSep18,paired5session blocks,seed200904,10000paths each,60sessions;3 common sampled blocks start67.37/64.63 and dailyclose barriers65.48/74.59 and62.10/77.97. {"total_proxy":{"n":1255,"exit_frequencies":{"EEM":{"stop_first":0.6264,"target_first":0.2315,"neither":0.1421},"XLE":{"stop_first":0.5419,"target_first":0.178,"neither":0.2801}},"unstopped_terminal_p05_p50_p95":[-13.692639696010037,5.5778139751457445,25.07779318050785]},"price_only":{"n":1255,"exit_frequencies":{"EEM":{"stop_first":0.6462,"target_first":0.2176,"neither":0.1362},"XLE":{"stop_first":0.5616,"target_first":0.1642,"neither":0.2742}},"unstopped_terminal_p05_p50_p95":[-14.488618360514453,4.665241971145377,24.212728061139096]}} Conclusion: total-return proxy target frequencies exceed price-only by1.39pp EEM/1.38pp XLE; neither equals actual execution odds. Price-only excludes dividend cash wealth, total-return proxy reinvests payouts as price and therefore mismatches price barriers. Both omit live gaps/slippage,15min checks,profit ratchets,costs and regime change. Not a strategy backtest or calibrated Kelly input. Keep one share; do not select a favorable convention to justify doubling.
paths_each10000
sessions60
blocks5
sample1255
EEM_target_total_pct23.15
EEM_target_price_pct21.76
XLE_target_total_pct17.8
XLE_target_price_pct16.42
R92004 financing flows can mimic sustained breakout demand
Premises:1 provider docs https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbarsingle-1 define all as including cash-dividend/split adjustment.2 raw/all paired1584sessions throughSep18 show17/18 funds with changed closes; GLD unchanged.3 issuer EEM https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf provides10exdates Dec2021-Jun2026; XLE historical workbook https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx provides20 Sep2021-Jun2026. ImpliedD=Pprev*(1-factorPrev/factorEx),factor=all/raw, matches issuer within .008782/.007846 dollars at historical share scale. Exact-factor replacement changes EEM252 28.311639->28.301024%, XLEmean19.705216->19.711674%, XLEP90 .206279467->.206321613. EEMP90 unchanged .107179635. Raw split-only EEM25225.8543%,XLEmean18.0040%; no selection change. EEM adjusted lead over QQQ5.442623pp; sector XLK lead .330904pp, but EEM+XLK257.92 exceeds240 so XLE remains feasible selection. Validity: audit supports robust current selection; soundness: confirms sampled known payouts, not exhaustive absent-event detection, all16other issuer histories or reinvestment convention equivalence. Small errors consistent with price rounding but cause unproven. No discretionary cash/quarantine, no re-test of accepted premium.
EEM_checks10
XLE_checks20
EEM_max_error0.01
XLE_max_error0.01
EEM_corrected_return28.3
XLE_corrected_score19.71
EEM_lead_pp5.44
XLK_lead_pp0.33
04UTC Monday deployment retained after dividend audit; remote281 verified
Premises:1 Technical3608 fixed full11 selects XLK/XLE/XLV.2 Statistical3614 independent issuer distribution reconstruction leaves basket unchanged, no income-data veto.3 Ownquery_trades empty; supplied equity1000cap260; closed research session requires fractional RTH market execution. Conclusion preserve monitor401 Sep21 13:50UTC,382/410; no orders or exit changes. At each RTH order refresh ownlots/allfund aggregate queues/cash/equity/cap/completed data and actual E. Equal notionals86.66each259.98; XLE otherfund queue64.63 plus86.66=151.29<250 current aggregate cap. Equal slot floorcents min(cap/3,.25equity,(.02equity-.01)/max_i[r+(1-r)*g+.005]),r=2ATR/E,g=max(.10,2abs worstnegativegap). Modeled stop-plus-gap losses13.80/13.49/11.11 each<20,joint38.39; larger unseen gaps can exceed this, no guaranteed bound or calibrated odds. ATR3.1445/1.264725/2.16547;P90.183621922/.206279467/.106286482; stopE-2ATR,targetE*(1+P90),1–3months. Gross slot upside15.91/17.88/9.21USD,ordinary stop2.87/3.41/2.23USD. On fill verify actual receipt/brackets; once profitable ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never initial above-entry ratchet. Stop->lesson/rerank11; otherwise hold to monthly rerank. No funding shortfall in inputs; no generic Kelly/backtest override of fixed mandate. Job281 remote02:16 actual END11/11 exit0,27daily runs left, nextSep21 02:16; keep unchanged. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Audit narrows former dividend gap: residual factor discrepancies max2.285bp remain, future-event completeness not guaranteed; exact15minexit calibration and Sep18 missedfill cause still unknown. Historical P90 not success odds. Closed RTH is sole current execution constraint; reminder is not an order.
Premises:1 technical3607 selectsEEM/QQQ/IWM;2 statistical3609 confirms all/split top3 robustness and EEM independent dividend reconstruction;3 query_trades trend-frac empty; supplied Core retiredflat/noqueue, separatetrend-wsEEM67.37queue;4 equity1000/cap280/name250;5 market closed untilSep21 13:30UTC and mandate RTH fractional notional MARKET. Conclusion preserve397Monday13:50UTC execution review,385/409context reviews; no order now or lower-ranked crypto substitution. Before EACH order refresh cash/equity/caps/aggregate exposure/Core exclusions/latestcompletedbars/entry; if flat eligible RTH execute93.33subject3611 and verifyfill/brackets. EEMaggregate160.70<250 currently. Reference EEMstop65.1435 target74.214251 P90+10.717963% RR3.808; QQQ704.90264/838.105473 +16.169585% RR7.050; IWM277.666/320.524605 +12.821051% RR5.661. ActualstopE-2ATR,targetE*(1+P90),1–3months; profitable ratchetmax(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR); monthly/stop rerank. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and supplied venue session/ledger context. No holdings/exits/close lessons pending. Rejection in RTH must be recorded and repaired eligible same run; prior Friday missing fills still unexplained. No new job needed before06UTC: no position, no RTH, no newlycompletedday. Existing monitor is reminder not order. Fixed-rule validation accepted; no retest, no calibratedKelly/liveodds from empty ledger, fundingobjective excluded. Gap stress76.44 not guaranteed limit. No new fund proposal.
planned279.99
per_lot93.33
EEM_aggregate160.7
joint_gap_stress76.44
orders0
Dividend mechanics: avoid double counting income or treating ex-date as loss
Premises:1 Issuer workbook lists XLE exJune22,2026 cash.384876 and March23 .385178 per share; exSep22,2025 .748731 was preDec5 split and becomes.3743655 in current-share units. Source https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx .2 Issuer explains ex-date buyer no longer entitled, payable date separate https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/resources/documents/etf-dividend-distributions .3 Feed all/split audit confirms income adjustments with small residual. First order cash distribution reduces fund assets; second order raw price mechanically changes with entitlement; third order raw-return ranking can understate income sectors and contaminate stops/targets if units mixed. Counterexample actual market return can dominate ex-date effect; do not attribute entire move to dividend. XLE mean income contribution1.7012pp here; do not add dividends again to adjusted returns. Issuer benefits from fund assets but is primary entitlement source, not independent performance endorsement. Rule targets are historical adjusted returns mapped to entry price; future paid distributions and executable target hit are distinct. This does not justify discretionary rotation or new fund.
XLE_June_cash0.38
XLE_March_cash0.39
XLE_score_income_difference_pp1.7
Dividend deep dive: 231 issuer events reconcile; ranks and targets robust
Question: could missing dividends change fixed top3 or P90 targets? Premises:1 Matched1332 SIP bars/symbol throughSep18, requesting all versus split, conditional issuer Dec5 split repair.2 Primary SSGA historical-distributions XLSX supplies21 dated cash events per ETF,231 total within history2021–2026.3 Cash preDec5 halved only for five split ETFs. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/v1.4.2/reference/stockbars . Method compare daily change in all/split ratio against1-D/prior split close; max abs error2.284555bp,median.312859bp. Separately compound (close+D)/priorclose for explicit ex-date-close reinvestment. Mean21/63/126/252: XLK20.031631 vs feed20.036119%, XLE19.690286 vs19.705216%, XLV12.438596 vs12.442229%; fourth XLF5.427108 vs5.434559%. Max all11 mean difference.014930pp. Exact cash reinvest rolling60 P90 XLK18.364050/XLE20.636729/XLV10.623785% versus feed18.362192/20.627947/10.628648%; economically tiny target differences. Omitting dividends gives XLK19.7384/XLE18.0040/XLV11.5376% means, but still same basket and all11 SMA eligibility unchanged. All/split1269 historical closes differ per symbol, latest63 coincide since last June distribution. Conclusion dividend omission is not current issue; retain all-adjusted signals and targets. Validity: premise-to-rank comparison direct. Soundness limited by same feed prices, issuer revision risk, rounding and backward adjustment versus close-reinvestment convention; residual not zero and not proved solely rounding. Strong counterexample missing future distribution could still corrupt next run, so this is a dated reconciliation, not permanent certification. Two independent origins: issuer cash/splits and Alpaca pricing/specification, not11 independent validations. No strategy backtest or probability inference. Collection includes all fixed11, excludes out-of-universe assets and dividends before fetched price start.
events231
ETFs11
max_factor_error_bp2.28
median_factor_error_bp0.31
max_avg_difference_pp0.01
XLK_reinvest_P9018.36
XLE_reinvest_P9020.64
XLV_reinvest_P9010.62
R92004 financing changes the interpretation of breakout volume
Premises:1 adjustment sensitivity recorded this run;2 fractional exits RTH-only;3 own ledger empty. Sources https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . First order omitting distributions understates historical returns; second order near ties can alter ranks and P90 targets; third order mistaken orders or double-counted cash distort actual performance. Countercase current top3 unchanged, so no selection change justified. Current target-return increases all vs split EEM.395373/QQQ.171820/IWM.320082pp do not establish greater future odds. Keep source modes and market-price exits explicit, verify venue dividend credits when held. No current corporate-action catalyst or new event timestamp asserted; no extra monitor required.
EEM_target_delta_pp0.4
QQQ_target_delta_pp0.17
IWM_target_delta_pp0.32
Deterministic stop-through-gap scenario retained after adjustment audit
Premises:1 current reference entries/ATR from3607;2 carried gap assumptions g EEM.125794155019 QQQ.109666233203 IWM.138906519177, not fresh tail estimates;3 cash1000/fund280/position250. r=2ATR/E; coefficient=r+(1-r)*2g+.005; size=floorcents min(280/3,250,29.5/coefficient). Gives93.33each. Stress EEM25.913233 QQQ22.608078 IWM27.921384 joint76.442695USD, each<30 under modeled shocks. Larger shocks can exceed3%; no guaranteed bound or calibrated odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Prior unchanged-sample Monte Carlo3570 retained, not rerun as new evidence. Actual payout/stop slippage and distribution timing unknown. No trade-derived Kelly from empty reset ledger; equal-weight mandate governs.
size93.33
EEM_stress25.91
QQQ_stress22.61
IWM_stress27.92
joint_stress76.44
account_equity1000
Distribution cash flow supports total-return signal, not a free gain
Premises:1 issuer cash distributions .763266 Dec16 2025/.350802 Jun15 2026 total1.114068/share;2 issuer hypothetical performance reinvests dividends/capital gains and deducts fund expenses;3 provider all adjusts dividend prices. Sources https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars . These receipts explain why split-only25.8543% differs from total-return proxy28.3116%; cash payout is transferred value, not additional gain to add again to adjusted returns. Issuer benefits from fund inflows; cash dates/amounts useful independently of marketing. Counterexample: NAV total return differs from traded-market return due to fair value/premiums, and venue may not reinvest automatically. Therefore do not equate signal performance or price target with exact investor realized total return; retain mandate P90 calculation convention. Actual ledger cash credit treatment not verified this run.
distribution_total1.11
price_return25.85
adjusted_return28.31
Dividend adjustment sensitivity: top three unchanged, return definitions materially different
Premises:1 same-date all/split responses paired1434bars each;2 provider documents all includes cash dividends https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars ;3 issuer independently lists EEM two distributions https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf . Source bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Deltas [{"symbol":"SPY","paired":1434,"different":1433,"ratio_min":0.9261785620226495,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":1.5760769564364896,"p90_delta_pp":0.4172005003522758},{"symbol":"TLT","paired":1434,"different":1421,"ratio_min":0.829594647776466,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":4.132788584956881,"p90_delta_pp":0.90325770973202},{"symbol":"EEM","paired":1434,"different":1367,"ratio_min":0.8851376146788991,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":2.4573389290826197,"p90_delta_pp":0.3953725147457732},{"symbol":"EFA","paired":1434,"different":1367,"ratio_min":0.8426892950391646,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":3.8661319021926266,"p90_delta_pp":1.035611784786218},{"symbol":"GLD","paired":1434,"different":0,"ratio_min":1,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":0,"p90_delta_pp":0},{"symbol":"IWM","paired":1434,"different":1430,"ratio_min":0.934033446586948,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":1.2069012127939427,"p90_delta_pp":0.3200818764750507},{"symbol":"QQQ","paired":1434,"different":1371,"ratio_min":0.966392634001973,"ratio_max":1,"annual_delta_pp":0.589354770642192,"p90_delta_pp":0.17181960145787878}]. All/split both selectEEM/QQQ/IWM; no SMA eligibility flips. IWM-SPY adjusted margin3.004713pp; SPY needs2.565342% extra cumulative gross-return correction relative to IWM to tie if other inputs fixed. This is sensitivity, not probability. EEM issuer .763266 Dec16 2025 and .350802 Jun15 2026 reconstruct28.309536% under ex-date-close reinvestment versus adjusted28.311639%, difference.002103pp. Event factor residual versus prior-close adjustment -.932622/+ .118150bp; rounding/convention can contribute, precise attribution unknown. Largest all/split annual differenceTLT4.132789pp; price-return ranking not legitimate substitute even though current selection unchanged. Counterexample: larger dividends near a future rank boundary could change selection. No sample-wide cashflow reconciliation; other ETFs/older dividends unverified independently. Validity: observed robustness supports retaining current selection only; soundness bounded by common provider error, not eliminated by two endpoints. No new strategy expectancy/backtest.