Stats

Frozen consolidated daily20high/SMA50 entries, next9:30baropen,1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget/max10sessions. SIP2026Jan2–Sep4:6676 15minbars;4420regularbars,170days all26RTH intervals. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Poll lastcompleted15minclose; crossing stop/target exits atobservedclose minus10bpslippage and5bpfee eachside. No intra-bar touch fills; no same-dayreentry. RTHonly N16,return-21.51943%,DD28.64888%,win31.25%,avgwin5.24118%,avgloss4.41431%. Availableextendedbars N16,return-13.63352%,DD26.42337%,win37.5%,avgwin4.94403%,avgloss4.26073%. These are diagnostics, not actual venue backtests: sparse afterhoursbars omit pollinginstants, lasttrades aren't executablebidquotes, no overnight20–04 coverage, zero latency and next-open fillapproximation. Bothnegative under favorable latency assumptions; no need assume missingprints are zero moves. Two daily versus polling tradecountdifferences arise fromhold-duration/reentry timing, not independent samples. No +1R management in baseline; separate MonteCarlo managementscenario is not validation. Entry remainszero.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CF --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1700 --stop-pct3 --target-pct4.5 (actual flags separated in archivedcommand). CLI1165 IEXbars,101trades,return-37.16635%,DD44.41383%,win31.68317%,avgtrade-.425359%,buyhold96.50752%. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . This is fullsample built-in diagnostic with own signal-exit semantics, no costed out-of-sample qualification; custom preregistered vectorbt test separately includes costs,next-open entry,ADR exits andchronologicalholdout. Do not combine their samples or claim CLI verifies actual venuefills.

Preregistered notes962/966. Python/vectorbt longonly, prior20-high breakout AND SMA50, next-open entry, priorADR20 stop1×/target1.5×, max10sessions. Entryday exits included, gaps through stop atopen, targetgaps cappedattarget, bothhit stopfirst.5bpfees+10bpslippage eachside; periodendflat; allin cash benchmark, not proposed allocation. Independent ledger agrees with vectorbt compoundedreturn andtradecount to1e-9. ConsolidatedSIP adjustmentall Sep2021–Sep4 2026 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Training2022–24 -8.2860%,N30,DD17.7676%,win43.3333%; validation2025 +7.2461%,N9,DD5.1629%,win55.5556%; untouched2026holdout -22.3400%,N17,DD26.9704%,win29.4118%,avgwin4.11832%,avgloss3.71447%. Stockbuyhold+74.6333% inholdout is not strategyexpectancy. Stress25bpslippage eachside loses26.2014%holdout and16.1798%training. Current signalfalse. Nine training-only lookback/SMAvariants reported separately, baseline neverselected fromholdout. IEX baseline+4.6223%train/+6.5787%validation/-25.2049%holdout; feed differences change training sign, not decision. Daily adjusted OHLC and mark-to-market DD are simplified; polling/extendedfills evaluated separately, adjusted dividends cannot certify live rawprice stops. Current-company selection and limited regimes constrain inference; rejection of this rule not all CF strategies. QuarterKelly0; no entry.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"ETHA","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-18.561335666821652,"dd":37.46929896330313,"n":7,"p":0.2857142857142857,"W":21.461569113206465,"L":10.58598380889804}; holdout {"s":"ETHA","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-6.68877159121663,"dd":19.478436600718585,"n":5,"p":0.4,"W":6.4743335564674735,"L":6.020303360610795}. All variants [{"s":"ETHA","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-25.562193490640723,"dd":32.03147412279197,"n":11,"p":0.36363636363636365,"W":6.206794060550501,"L":7.187205849313457},{"s":"ETHA","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-18.561335666821652,"dd":37.46929896330313,"n":7,"p":0.2857142857142857,"W":21.461569113206465,"L":10.58598380889804},{"s":"ETHA","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":-39.51124652014087,"dd":41.98484541365365,"n":3,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":1.0332658432881199,"L":22.63106148770346},{"s":"ETHA","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":-3.2961577615080726,"dd":19.478436600718585,"n":6,"p":0.5,"W":6.012629940539893,"L":6.598800853676225},{"s":"ETHA","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-6.68877159121663,"dd":19.478436600718585,"n":5,"p":0.4,"W":6.4743335564674735,"L":6.020303360610795},{"s":"ETHA","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-7.918832897150287,"dd":19.65024647994891,"n":3,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":2.5189894877493186,"L":5.093602022941892}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=ETHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"IBIT","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":0.5832857192442361,"dd":21.45637448712352,"n":12,"p":0.5833333333333334,"W":6.2604144636981145,"L":7.781622922396628}; holdout {"s":"IBIT","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-19.019164659913827,"dd":23.36184225424448,"n":5,"p":0.2,"W":2.6410824237620987,"L":5.597642507022194}. All variants [{"s":"IBIT","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-30.271235864765444,"dd":40.45405779057841,"n":18,"p":0.4444444444444444,"W":3.1594125917757094,"L":5.80941507107237},{"s":"IBIT","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":0.5832857192442361,"dd":21.45637448712352,"n":12,"p":0.5833333333333334,"W":6.2604144636981145,"L":7.781622922396628},{"s":"IBIT","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":-0.2798378194675024,"dd":31.79948007519464,"n":8,"p":0.375,"W":11.279164681989345,"L":5.931744774166906},{"s":"IBIT","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":-14.58836941773194,"dd":23.20986456833157,"n":7,"p":0.42857142857142855,"W":5.36323265090263,"L":7.482914317306574},{"s":"IBIT","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-19.019164659913827,"dd":23.36184225424448,"n":5,"p":0.2,"W":2.6410824237620987,"L":5.597642507022194},{"s":"IBIT","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-15.880756766022635,"dd":19.71089002836447,"n":3,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":0.05861799156909467,"L":8.313543453648995}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IBIT&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"FXI","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-15.081082584587307,"dd":34.42910155795327,"n":22,"p":0.4090909090909091,"W":5.270056077109038,"L":4.495965049074303}; holdout {"s":"FXI","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-8.746217322893516,"dd":16.696889109724232,"n":7,"p":0.2857142857142857,"W":2.4137543689579655,"L":2.704313626045877}. All variants [{"s":"FXI","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-4.306351071054086,"dd":24.77884708115593,"n":33,"p":0.45454545454545453,"W":3.9113312622623386,"L":3.305440041519718},{"s":"FXI","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-15.081082584587307,"dd":34.42910155795327,"n":22,"p":0.4090909090909091,"W":5.270056077109038,"L":4.495965049074303},{"s":"FXI","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":32.04882769528865,"dd":33.769953221466366,"n":16,"p":0.5,"W":9.096876340204782,"L":4.60751052657901},{"s":"FXI","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":1.7175206943662487,"dd":8.485142674426882,"n":12,"p":0.5833333333333334,"W":2.7259620773201365,"L":3.3232438241887325},{"s":"FXI","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-8.746217322893516,"dd":16.696889109724232,"n":7,"p":0.2857142857142857,"W":2.4137543689579655,"L":2.704313626045877},{"s":"FXI","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-5.347652186637367,"dd":17.469230758759657,"n":5,"p":0.4,"W":4.259205492398713,"L":4.489982858901947}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"EWJ","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-10.069275533680367,"dd":21.021798073020637,"n":19,"p":0.5789473684210527,"W":2.3485011394675106,"L":4.388808404232332}; holdout {"s":"EWJ","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":15.09191833882411,"dd":4.9920184070356255,"n":4,"p":0.75,"W":5.133291198421784,"L":0.8940181005838708}. All variants [{"s":"EWJ","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-6.243542550486166,"dd":16.802846605605094,"n":26,"p":0.5,"W":2.529138268529298,"L":2.9083575594069275},{"s":"EWJ","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-10.069275533680367,"dd":21.021798073020637,"n":19,"p":0.5789473684210527,"W":2.3485011394675106,"L":4.388808404232332},{"s":"EWJ","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":17.046293391412984,"dd":12.217748879943425,"n":15,"p":0.6666666666666666,"W":4.770580412602823,"L":5.862240150737417},{"s":"EWJ","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":0.7574696427833487,"dd":7.507624331275375,"n":5,"p":0.4,"W":2.673696436697758,"L":1.4852919934047515},{"s":"EWJ","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":15.09191833882411,"dd":4.9920184070356255,"n":4,"p":0.75,"W":5.133291198421784,"L":0.8940181005838708},{"s":"EWJ","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":12.612497132293992,"dd":6.082102570066262,"n":3,"p":1,"W":4.122085005941915,"L":null}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EWJ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"SLV","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":0.3927247826723033,"dd":23.355444704194184,"n":18,"p":0.3888888888888889,"W":5.436416972857905,"L":3.224960097832085}; holdout {"s":"SLV","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":2.548621934408675,"dd":16.825986420917992,"n":4,"p":0.5,"W":8.493313943206598,"L":6.3882640387378355}. All variants [{"s":"SLV","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":12.605447820575943,"dd":14.971486370086296,"n":24,"p":0.5,"W":3.764484523417159,"L":2.611962136469102},{"s":"SLV","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":0.3927247826723033,"dd":23.355444704194184,"n":18,"p":0.3888888888888889,"W":5.436416972857905,"L":3.224960097832085},{"s":"SLV","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":-17.000752700604096,"dd":29.30871562786509,"n":11,"p":0.45454545454545453,"W":3.43525980703389,"L":5.633666741191252},{"s":"SLV","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":20.063567133137916,"dd":14.992526002249173,"n":6,"p":0.6666666666666666,"W":7.246787413103023,"L":4.432606771306272},{"s":"SLV","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":2.548621934408675,"dd":16.825986420917992,"n":4,"p":0.5,"W":8.493313943206598,"L":6.3882640387378355},{"s":"SLV","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":0.7385568143881073,"dd":26.388593450284304,"n":3,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":12.529967603276853,"L":5.287202754703545}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SLV&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"GLD","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":5.536199058952457,"dd":8.509858541862636,"n":13,"p":0.38461538461538464,"W":3.079819037777228,"L":1.1807710189360685}; holdout {"s":"GLD","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-6.972057425478703,"dd":9.057571430924849,"n":2,"p":0.5,"W":0.000002830015985769015,"L":6.975546086897011}. All variants [{"s":"GLD","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":0.983993906468936,"dd":6.974682048947479,"n":18,"p":0.3888888888888889,"W":1.8253659147175778,"L":1.0494802403589294},{"s":"GLD","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":5.536199058952457,"dd":8.509858541862636,"n":13,"p":0.38461538461538464,"W":3.079819037777228,"L":1.1807710189360685},{"s":"GLD","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":19.60484080551473,"dd":10.401464075548372,"n":9,"p":0.7777777777777778,"W":3.733845044738794,"L":3.6201616272937427},{"s":"GLD","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":-8.423295163342392,"dd":9.665601988506756,"n":3,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":1.827834499290729,"L":5.105655807200766},{"s":"GLD","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-6.972057425478703,"dd":9.057571430924849,"n":2,"p":0.5,"W":0.000002830015985769015,"L":6.975546086897011},{"s":"GLD","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-7.913103185292118,"dd":8.158821689010798,"n":1,"p":0,"W":null,"L":7.917059736884766}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"TLT","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-14.619583883751613,"dd":23.23682555001839,"n":28,"p":0.42857142857142855,"W":2.839725178656158,"L":3.0122692217263602}; holdout {"s":"TLT","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-3.035077446758885,"dd":6.578091832048072,"n":6,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":0.30556687266432536,"L":0.9178928422002173}. All variants [{"s":"TLT","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-9.013655192877435,"dd":22.980612459117168,"n":39,"p":0.5128205128205128,"W":1.6069882094907881,"L":2.1297611328464456},{"s":"TLT","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-14.619583883751613,"dd":23.23682555001839,"n":28,"p":0.42857142857142855,"W":2.839725178656158,"L":3.0122692217263602},{"s":"TLT","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":-19.183496663988137,"dd":28.671921332027328,"n":19,"p":0.5263157894736842,"W":2.8638497380518437,"L":5.27852200677722},{"s":"TLT","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":-2.4582818390906485,"dd":5.060143562187969,"n":9,"p":0.4444444444444444,"W":0.2676058071843199,"L":0.7074613113256234},{"s":"TLT","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-3.035077446758885,"dd":6.578091832048072,"n":6,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":0.30556687266432536,"L":0.9178928422002173},{"s":"TLT","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-0.5982328677306782,"dd":5.2544170076018855,"n":4,"p":0.25,"W":3.0880904275632037,"L":1.204198503205299}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLT&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"EEM","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-3.438617505551065,"dd":15.595172168610748,"n":17,"p":0.5294117647058824,"W":2.434750920734669,"L":3.0424574915913767}; holdout {"s":"EEM","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-3.7926818201905688,"dd":11.404525868136561,"n":4,"p":0.5,"W":0.9578497215174376,"L":2.817554666199297}. All variants [{"s":"EEM","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-8.04788057257348,"dd":19.0418298012341,"n":26,"p":0.46153846153846156,"W":2.7468862013395285,"L":2.8410878567268227},{"s":"EEM","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":-3.438617505551065,"dd":15.595172168610748,"n":17,"p":0.5294117647058824,"W":2.434750920734669,"L":3.0424574915913767},{"s":"EEM","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":18.389295622044905,"dd":26.518679658901647,"n":14,"p":0.7142857142857143,"W":4.929805302736331,"L":7.338731271229007},{"s":"EEM","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":-0.9640447297328819,"dd":7.578798411770493,"n":6,"p":0.16666666666666666,"W":8.939111828836865,"L":1.8819590678546227},{"s":"EEM","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-3.7926818201905688,"dd":11.404525868136561,"n":4,"p":0.5,"W":0.9578497215174376,"L":2.817554666199297},{"s":"EEM","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-7.930981587230769,"dd":12.27574639859178,"n":2,"p":0,"W":null,"L":4.0383102544153555}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"XLE","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":90.97344971104472,"dd":15.526998968204675,"n":26,"p":0.7307692307692307,"W":4.775203251956376,"L":3.1619576031513636}; holdout {"s":"XLE","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":10.696243283290562,"dd":4.6281784033169515,"n":4,"p":0.75,"W":4.594270670367002,"L":3.15831994868343}. All variants [{"s":"XLE","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":28.744461945869084,"dd":17.088594303863335,"n":33,"p":0.7272727272727273,"W":2.559349761677472,"L":3.765042981293808},{"s":"XLE","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":90.97344971104472,"dd":15.526998968204675,"n":26,"p":0.7307692307692307,"W":4.775203251956376,"L":3.1619576031513636},{"s":"XLE","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":64.66789428026767,"dd":16.73720672369915,"n":17,"p":0.5882352941176471,"W":7.53729031579105,"L":2.871482226918713},{"s":"XLE","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":3.4455501990069024,"dd":2.8566229985444114,"n":4,"p":0.75,"W":1.9357712924501076,"L":2.327219667349665},{"s":"XLE","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":10.696243283290562,"dd":4.6281784033169515,"n":4,"p":0.75,"W":4.594270670367002,"L":3.15831994868343},{"s":"XLE","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-3.421129237329626,"dd":9.842062442158294,"n":2,"p":0.5,"W":3.0614511032446132,"L":6.291767772863162}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Signal at close must fill next open.2 Holdout results cannot be selected for an option payoff.3 Stops are not part of this fixed-horizon stock diagnostic. Frozen note963: negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60; enter nextopen,exit10sessions later atopen; neighboring5/20sessions sensitivity. Nonoverlapping trades, no incomplete terminal trades,2022-25 train/2026 holdout. vectorbt from_signals explicit openprice, fees5bp and slippage10bp each side,1000 normalized all-in equity; dailyclose marking misses intraday drawdown. Trade count and p include netcosts; no new stock proposal authorized by this test. Primary train {"s":"XLF","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":6.639887450161826,"dd":13.221007687259211,"n":23,"p":0.5652173913043478,"W":3.3037040293149587,"L":3.4481328243019242}; holdout {"s":"XLF","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-6.455030075496722,"dd":7.615842236544101,"n":4,"p":0,"W":null,"L":1.6448197783722456}. All variants [{"s":"XLF","period":"train","hold":5,"ret":-12.631752374025087,"dd":26.028483074553975,"n":31,"p":0.4838709677419355,"W":3.4001898061428593,"L":3.7998625190829034},{"s":"XLF","period":"train","hold":10,"ret":6.639887450161826,"dd":13.221007687259211,"n":23,"p":0.5652173913043478,"W":3.3037040293149587,"L":3.4481328243019242},{"s":"XLF","period":"train","hold":20,"ret":0.3736530913380648,"dd":28.498943492138718,"n":16,"p":0.5625,"W":5.351890201644434,"L":6.235918385512589},{"s":"XLF","period":"test","hold":5,"ret":-7.460626034008272,"dd":9.769433309137431,"n":6,"p":0.3333333333333333,"W":0.8393908103091665,"L":2.316370743870734},{"s":"XLF","period":"test","hold":10,"ret":-6.455030075496722,"dd":7.615842236544101,"n":4,"p":0,"W":null,"L":1.6448197783722456},{"s":"XLF","period":"test","hold":20,"ret":-5.588785312956509,"dd":7.275713674932749,"n":2,"p":0,"W":null,"L":2.835697430891199}]. ETHA/IBIT shorter inception histories. Training loses or holdout uncertainty/smallN prevents independent robustedge; positive isolated variants are not adopted. Actual optionholdout0; a bearish stock-regime/rebound test neither prices a put nor validates a call. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; research/analyze.py. CLI XLF mean-reversion separately gross+3.244%,DD1.622%,N7,win85.714%,251bars; audited sameclosefill/no explicitcosts/--exit ignored, not validation.

Premises:1 Underlying exposure must support the price scenario.2 Income distributions affect option parity and raw-price paths.3 Yield and duration are not an option forecast. Issuer Sep4 price82.21,NAV82.17,effective duration15.06years; Sep3SECyield5.17%,trailingyield4.74%,monthlydistributions,expense.15%. A +10bp parallel yield shock implies roughly-1.506% or-$1.23808 before convexity/carry, comparable to measured2ATR1.297514. This makes a twoATR bearish scenario economically possible but supplies neither its probability nor its timing. Monthly cash requires discrete ex-div dates for a final American-option model; continuousq0–5% pricing range and simulationq4.74% are proxies. Baseline short-horizon variance9.6648% sigma may miss a rate jump, strongest counterargument to rejecting cheap convexity; no verified surprise or current executablequote establishes that jump. Rate shock -> long-duration bonds reprice -> volatility/optionIV can rise while higher future income offsets some totalreturn; later meanreversion or carry can erase put gains. Holdcash pending netoptionedge. Source https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLT&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Issuer source nearest fund exposure, not independent forecast of interest rates.

Premise1: command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD,XRP/USD,UNI/USD,LTC/USD,LINK/USD --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days615 --stop-pct3 --target-pct4.5 (actualflagswithspaces) returns616bars/pair includingpartialSep8. Premise2: sourceengineusesclose-derivedsignalsandfillsatthesameclose,noexecutioncosts,andbarfetchignorespagination. Premise3: noheldoutwindowinCLI; fixedstop/targetdiagnosticonly. Grossreturns BTC+2.3668,ETH-20.7311,SOL+27.8476,XRP+6.0689,UNI-34.6682,LTC-29.1255,LINK+8.1187percent; closedN40/37/33/23/33/37/36. Fullper-symbolreturn/drawdown/winrate/sample/buyholdinobservationsandcli_summary.json. Conclusion noCLIwinnertrusted; usecompletehistory,nextopen,costedcustomexitsandholdoutforfrozencompressionablation. Validity sourceomissionspreventpromotinggrossresultintoexpectednetedge; soundnessCLIresultsareonlyreproductionoftheprovidedengine. This is not evidence compression works. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

1. First order: lost foreign nitrogen output can raise delivered fertilizer prices; operating producers capture spread only after gas, transport and own downtime. CF's677 sellingprice and412cost/ton illustrate existing rent; phosphate makers buying ammonia and farmers can absorb cost or reduce purchases https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm . 2. Second order: demand deferral, changes in product mix and imports moderate the premium; Yara reports delayed off-season purchasing https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/yara-reports-strong-q2-margins-despite-market-volatility/ . CF forward-priced sales and constrained storage mean spot prices cannot be applied to all future tonnes https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm . These links are hypotheses, not measured farmer elasticities or MOS earnings forecasts. 3. Third order: scarcity encourages capacity and infrastructure. BluePoint Aug26 project3.7bn×CF40%+550m=2.03bn attributable planned outlay, mechanically507.5m/year if spread evenly across fouryears (actual timing unknown);1.4Mt/year capacity expected2029. Linde ASU and OXY/EnbridgeCO2 service are contractual infrastructure exposure, not evidence of their margins https://ir.cfindustries.com/Investors/news/news-details/2026/CF-Industries-JERA-Co--and-Mitsui--Co--Ltd--Break-Ground-on-Blue-Point-One-the-Worlds-Largest-Low-Carbon-Ammonia-Plant-in-Louisiana/default.aspx . No production before completion inferred. LNG exports could narrow USgas advantage while CCS failures impair credits. Valid chain is conditional; profitable new slots, customer acceptance and stock edge remain required. No proxy purchase or separate FUND justified.

1. CF Q2 ammonia selling price677 minus cost412 gives265/ton grossmargin versus452-327=125 prior; volume fell20%. This supports realized pricing power, not merely a quote. H1 CFO1374m minus PPE494m=880m; CFO grew19.58%, versus netearnings including noncontrolling1545m, conversion88.93%. Exclude170m settlement and75m insurance from recurring-rent interpretation, without pretending pretax items can simply be subtracted from EPS. Cash2480m includes341mVIE; NCI distributions201m reduce common-owner cash. Source issuer quarter https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm . 2. Binding constraint: accepted profitable output and delivered gas, not announced demand. Annual CHS13%sales, Donaldsonville40%capacity and some singlepipelines; forward sales may cap spot upside https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm . 3. Counterexample to US-only rent: Yara Q2 EBITDA906m versus652m(+38.96%) with delayed purchasing https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/yara-reports-strong-q2-margins-despite-market-volatility/ . Geographic label misses diversified gas exposure. Two company origins; issuer presentations repeat their own filings. Soundness: audited annual risks/current unaudited quarter describe their own operations; independent current global tonnes and transaction-price data absent. Stronger margins do not establish unpriced stock expectancy.

Premises:1 Variance forecasts must be evaluated on future returns unavailable when forecast formed.2 A pooled mean bias adjustment can mimic indicator skill.3 Correlated ETFs are not independent events. Frozen note963 before results. SIP adjusted daily2022-Sep4 2026,8 ETFs1173bars each,IBIT665,ETHA533; start after60returns; benchmark f=.5*(252mean last20 r²+252EWMA r² alpha.06). Four groups negative5return x belowSMA50. At disjoint10session origins within each train/test partition, realized a=252mean next10r². Group multiplier=(sum train a/f+20)/(Ng+20); train2022-25,N825; holdout2026,N160. QLIKE=a/f-log(a/f)-1. Train .318527->.301612; holdout .303423->.275747, paired delta-.027676. Numpy seed2026090806,10000 resamples of monthly blocks retaining intra-month cross-asset dependence,8 holdout blocks,95%CI[-.087978,.016767]. Eight blocks and different inception dates limit inference; prior origins never consume future test returns, current Sep4 unscored. Secondary frozen note969 global multiplier1.181661 gives holdoutQLIKE .281482; grouped incremental delta-.005735 CI[-.015465,.005064], seed2026090807. Thus most measured gain can be simple calibration; cannot establish downside regime edge. Multipliers groups0/1/2/3=1.223964/1.085256/1.223216/1.103578,counts312/114/166/233. Downtrend groups do not show strongest multiplier, contradicting naive leverage prior. Soundness limited by selected existing ETFs, adjusted returns not raw ex-div option paths, pooled assets and only8monthlyblocks. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; models research/analyze.py/control.json. Forecast improvement is not option-return backtest. Do not adopt; retain as exploratory prospective hypothesis.

1.SPYissuerfactsheet describes anS&P500price/yieldtracker,0.0945%annualnetexpense,Jan1993inception;EFAissuer describes developedlarge/midcap outsideUS/Canada;EEMissuer describes emerginglarge/midcaps. Broadindex earnings/dividends underpinlongreturns; inversevariance scaling changes exposure, createsno new operatingcashflow.2.ETFexpensesalreadyreflectedinprices, notaddedtwice. Cashyield assumed0 andtotalreturnadjustedOHLCproxy differsfrompaperexcessreturns andactualcashdividendtiming.3.Foreign equityprices incorporate localcashflows/FX andnon-USclose timing; lowerUSDvariance alone cannotidentifyvaluation orcreditrisk.4.Bindingconstraintis netimplementableedge, notfloatcapacity at~213USD;actual whole-share exits mustfitcapital. No issuer valuationforecast used. Counterexample:holdinglongtermpremium mayoutperformtiming whenvolatility fallsafterarally; a riskreductionisnotnecessarilyreturnimprovement. Sources https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/factsheets/etfs/us/factsheet-us-en-spy.pdf ; https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/efa-ishares-msci-eafe-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf .

Premises:1.Moreira/Muir2017 original rule uses inverse lagged realized variance on factor excess returns.2.Cederburg etal2020 distinguish in-sample spanning alpha from implementable performance over103strategies.3.Venue needs cappedcash and explicit exits, neither paper validates that combination. Conclusion: test adaptation, not claim literal replication or tradable alpha. Calibration2016–18 frozen median RV; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026. Monthly firstsessionopen weight=min(1,k/prior22daymean squaredlogreturn),66day sensitivity and unscaledcontrol. Parent20sessiontimeexit; managed1ATRstop/1.5ATRtarget/half+1ATRthenBE; adverse ordering, nonoverlap. 162cells, no tuning. Details note965; question tree964. Validity follows distinction between historical factor result and our executable rule; soundness depends on tested price/execution assumptions. Same historical holdout was used in previous strategy research and is not pristine prospective evidence. Source URLs https://amoreira2.github.io/alan-moreira.github.io/VolPortfolios_published.pdf ; https://www.lehigh.edu/~xuy219/research/COWY.pdf .

Premise1: direct operator fetch at06:03UTC repeats the Sep8 01:00:47restart-preparation statement, matching prior text hash; no new completed-restart statement observed. Premise2: recipient598.4998698BTC and watchedreserve3597.47198026BTC change only by dust since04UTC; recentpage is not completehistory. Premise3: two Liquid indexers return stale tips with different heights4051232/4050335, so neither establishes fresh chain activity or completed authorized payouts. Conclusion operational status remains uncertain; no new BTCbuyingobligation or payoff edge follows. Validity: absence of verified payout evidence supports withholding a recovery claim, not asserting a continuing outage. Soundness bounded by profileparser scope and stale indexers; current authorized payouttx and consistent freshchain would change operational judgment. Who benefits: claimants if assets become usable, alternative rails if uncertainty persists. Firstorder returnedcustody remains; secondorder conversioncapacityunverified; thirdorder potential adoption/selling effects directionallyambiguous. No full liability audit or valuation discount estimated. Sources https://x.com/Blockstream/status/2097127976672342487 ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks . Due monitor72 examined; noorder.

1. Started04:00:30UTC;complete~04:21(~21minutes),under42minuteplan/45hard;reservedfinaljournalphasebegan04:18. Readfundnotes/observations/analyses/lessonsfirst;appliedactual-exit,nonoverlapandno-funding-pressurelessons. Freshledger3closedPEADoperatorliquidations,0open/pending/closing;quant245.69cash.2. Primarypapersreadandboundaryrecorded12338/12339;thirdresearchabstract12348;issuerstructure929. Frozenprotocol926/notes920/924,complete14ETFpanels37576bars2016-2026;requestedpre2016missing.3. 216mainplus24full-dayskipcells;all240metricsrecordedobservations,72backtestrecordscovereveryfamily. Mainmanaged36/36holdoutnegativeincluding12zerocost. Primary2016-2020train-8.879916%,2021-2025holdout-45.074220%,DD48.485178%,N216,win48.148148%,averagewin1.700601%,averageloss2.068431%,Kelly0;stress-71.268856%,recent-22.895816%.4. Preservecontraryevidence:parenttimeexitbaselineholdout+41.613514%butstress-20.393113%;weeklymeanCIspans0andmatchedEFAcomparisonweak. Recentlag2intradaymanaged+21.969978%N29doesnotrescuehistoricalfailure. No timing/parameterselectionafterresults.5. Statistical995,technical1002,simulation1034,consequences1035recordpremises,uncertainty,matchedmarkets,regimes,MonteCarloandbindingconstraint. Dailybarpaths/fractionalpartialexits/adjusteddividendprices/assumedfeesarenotverified15minvenueexecution;freshpristineOOSmissing. Codecashledgerreconciliationmax1.0914e-11USDprovesarithmeticconsistencyonly.6. Exactreadbackarchive13290:310EWGparts604064chars,37576inputbarsand6scripts/13files;allresultrows/indicatorspreserved,ledgersregenerable. Lessons352-355andhandoff946written. Existingjobs8/15/68active;68next04:31,verifyactualoutput06UTC. Sixquantmonitorsfuture;nonebefore06UTC,nextmarketentrywouldneedfreshvalidation. Noadditionalmonitor/orderneededforrejectedrule. ConclusionNo proposals,actualsize0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://repub.eur.nl/pub/25718/AnotherLook_2011.pdf ; https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Trading-Costs-of-Asset-Pricing-Anomalies ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf .

Startstatequant245.69cash,account850.99,0open/queued;goalrepeatablepositiveexpectednetpayoff. Bindingconstraintindependentimplementableedge,not349.01fundinggap. Premises:1.Frozenmanagedprimaryloses8.879916%training,45.074220%holdout,22.895816%2026;all36managedholdoutcellsnegativeincluding12zerocost.2.Parentbaseline+41.613514%holdoutisrealmodelevidence,butstress-20.393113%,weeklymeanCI[-.084090,.474054]%andEFAmatchedgrosscomparison leavealphaunidentified.3.Full-dayskipdiagnosticdoesnotrescueholdout;positive2026intradaylag2managed+21.969978%N29isretainedascounterexample,nothindsightstrategyselection.4.LiquidcurrentEWGaffordabilityandfundamentalplausibilitycannotcalibratereversalprobability;dailyOHLC/fractional/adjustedpricescannotprovevenueexits. Conclusionnoorderlogicallyfollowsrequiredvalidationgates. Soundnessconditionalondata,codeandassumptions;ledgerreconciliationisnotindependentpricevalidation. Strongestcounterargument:cashforgoesrallies;EFAcontinuousgross+50.7896%andparentpositivebaselineproveopportunitycost. Theydonotvalidatefund-mandatedmanagedswing. Firstorderforcedtradepaystradingcostsandacceptscountry/FXrisk;secondorderstopsandprofit-takingchangepayoffdistributionandentrycohort;thirdorderrepeatednegativenetturnovererodesrunwayandtemptsretuning. Firstordercashavoidsmarketlossandforgoesgains;secondorderfixedcostsstillconsumeaccount;thirdorderoperatorpressurecanpushstrategyshopping. Marketmakers/brokersbenefitfromspread/turnover,ETFmanagerfromassets;ourbenefitrequiresnetedge. Changeviewonlywithprespecifiedindependentactual-exitdata,positivecostedtraining/holdoutandcredibleuncertainty;do notexpandtargetsorbuylag2because2026looksbetter. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; primaryresearchobservations12338/12339/12348andfundamental929. No new datedcatalystdiscovered;existing6quantmonitorsfuture,nonebefore06UTCnextresearch. Existingjob68next04:31coversclinicalcollection;noextraorder/jobneededforrejectedrule.

1. Primarymanagedholdoutp=.48148148,W1.700601%,L2.068431%;quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. USintradaymanagedalso0. Parentbaseline naivequarterKelly2.075070%butcoststressnegative,meanCIspans0andnoactualstop/targetvalidation,soactual0.2. Numpyseed90804,20000resamplesofcontiguous4calendarweeksfrom261holdoutweeklyreturns,circularwrap,25%hypotheticalaccountallocation eachweek,initial850.99. Primarymanaged4weekPnL5/50/95percentiles[-14.280032,-1.930133,10.879991]USD,lossfrequency58.595%;intradaymanaged[-15.629881,-2.296366,9.996975],61.1%. Parent[-14.160696,-.023203,18.994337],50.745%. Thesearehistoricalblock-resamplingfrequencies,notcalibratedforwardprobabilities;weeklyresetweights/fractionalassumptionmaydifferfromactualaccount,overheadexcluded.3. No sampledpathreaches349.01USDaccountgap;thisisnotproofzeroactualprobabilityandcannotjustifyanincomeprojection. Quantbook245.69,venuepositioncap212.7475,normalrisk8.5099. EWGfoursharesfitsarithmetic,notedgegate.4. ThreeownclosedtradesarePEADandoperatorliquidated,notindependentreversaltrials;33.33%win,7.93994%averagewin,5.26143%averagelossprovidesnooverride. Noarrivalquotesorintendedexitsamplesforslippage/stop-hitprobabilities.5. Main36managedholdoutvariantsnegativeeven12zero-cost;thereforeinsufficientedgeisnotmerelyourchosenfeeestimate. Real15min,overnightgaps,whole-sharepartialmanagement andfuturedistributionstillunknown. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_tradesfundquant04:01UTC ; diagnosticsarchived310parts.

1. Start state: no open or queued supply positions, verified ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev ; fundcash278.67, equity850.99 from context. No EXIT/ADJUST required. Lessons331/330 applied; no closed trades awaiting lessons. 2. One deep dive, tree note916: does a Bombardier US restriction transfer pricing power to deliverable substitutes? Policy status remains unverified, not disproven; July9 text directs negotiation https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/adjusting-imports-of-commercial-aircraft-jet-engines-and-aircraft-and-engine-parts-into-the-united-states/ . Canada's September8 counter-tariffs are a different policy. Analysis1003 distinguishes certified engine models and origin risks;1004 measures cash/valuation. Correction13288: blocked Bombardier endpoint was quarterly candidate, not annual; full Bombardier annual report not obtained. GD/TXT annual risks were fully retrieved. 3. Primary dealer evidence changes the incidence hypothesis: available used-aircraft owners and maintenance capacity may capture earlier than OEM backlog, but no independently validated listed beneficiary emerged. Analysis1008 and https://iada.aero/press-release/224/iada-reports-strong-start-to-2026-as-business-aircraft-market-stabilizes-at-elevated-levels . Ten independent source-origin groups including IADA; syndicated political/issuer coverage is not corroboration. Contradictions resolve by period, mission, accounting definition and aircraft quality; current spare slots remain unknown. 4. Frozen GD test999 rejects: train-15.0392%,holdout-7.4434%N7,win14.2857%,avgwin2.29118%,avgloss1.65053%;CI[-1.99661,.175079]%. CLI1000 also loses before costs. Statistical1005,simulation1006 andtechnical1007 retain zero; current signalfalse and359.40 whole share exceeds212.7475cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . This price rule is not a calibrated political-event strategy. No fabricated event probability; quarterKelly0. No retuning or cheaper proxy. 5. Validity: proposal needs numeric net edge plus policy/capacity evidence and executable limits; these gates fail, so no proposal. Soundness is bounded by IEX data, current-ticker selection, adjusted history, daily rather than15min exits and small holdout; it is not proof that all future aircraft investments fail. Binding economic constraint is uncommitted accepted delivery capacity, not headline demand. Strong counterargument: canceled slots and repricing can generate future profitable transfers, so retain prospective watch. 6. Replaced near-expiry carrier39 with tested job79 preserving4carrierURLs and adding4policy/issuer panels; remote first04:15:23exit0,complete8panels; Bombardierchallenge explicitly missing coverage. Next06:15 is AFTER06UTCmanager, so no intervening fresh output promised. Monitor74 chosen12:30review has both branches and noautomatictrade. ExistingASPI43/BWEN69/QFR58 unaffected. 7. All measured inputs/scripts/results archived76parts, byte-exact readback, manifest944 SHA25671eef43b5f83287b81b3ae953748acb74ff6724d1ffe714f292c22e884c2641f. Lessons349–351 recorded. Finished around19of42minutes; reserved final5minute phase began16:35early. No overrun; cut open-ended tariff component classification, Bombardier annual access and precise slot schedules as named gaps rather than borrowing finish time. No new FUND justified; supply mandate already covers the chain. Funding gap349.01 changes neither edge nor risk. NO PROPOSALS.