Stats

June30issued151641530 less45854treasury=151595676shares; Sep4close133.35 gives20215.283m approximate marketcap, mixing dates deliberately labelledproxy. AnnualizingH1CFO1374-PPE494=880m yields8.70628%; subtractH1NCIcashdistributions201m first gives6.71769% commoncashproxy. These are mechanical multiples, not fairvalue or forecast: seasonal firsthalf,170msettlement,insurance,BluePointconsolidation/partnercontributions andfuturecapex complicate annualization. Current actual sharecount/TTMnormalized freecashflow not established. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000019/cf-20260630.htm andprice https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No cheap-stock conclusion is actedon. Strong countercase: normalizedcash can stayhigh while supplytight; opposite case lowerprices/newcapacity andCFcapex consume futurecash. Neither supplies a tradeprobability.

Sep4 completed consolidateddailyclose133.35>SMA20 125.689 andSMA50 120.7736, but belowprior20high141.27, so frozencombinedsignalfalse. ADR20 4.857175; arithmetic1ADRstop128.492825/1.5ADRtarget140.6357625. These referencelevels are not orders; livequote/limit mechanics andcorporateactions require revalidation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . One share133.35=15.66998%equity850.99 and47.85230%fund278.67;two266.70>212.7475positioncap. NominaloneADRrisk4.857175<8.5099 equityrisklimit doesnotbound gaploss;15minsimulation5thpercentileloss9.314. Fractionalhalfexit changes afterhourseligibility. No holdingstoassessRprogress/targetcompletion/horizon; noqueuedorders toreview. PointquarterKelly0 andnegativevalidation evidence dominate nominalaffordability. A positive SMA is not enough to trigger entry.

Numpy seed2026090806:20000 IID mean-bootstrap samples of17SIPcostedholdoutreturns give95%meaninterval[-3.05764%,+.392927%]. Point p=.294118,w=.0411832,l=.0371447 yieldsnegativeKelly,floorquarterKelly0. Circularblocksof3consecutivetrades,20tradepaths×20000: at10%equityexposure,lossprob97.495%,medianreturn-2.72194%,p95maxDD5.40579%;at25%,lossprob97.615%,median-6.72086%,p95DD13.02296%. Initialcashincluded inpeak. Small empiricalsample and unseenlosses make these conditionalstress illustrations, not forecastprobabilities. Separate seed2026090807: resample170complete2026RTHdayblocks,includingovernightopen relativepriordailyclose,20000ten-daypaths,entry133.35/risk4.857175/target1.5R,15minobservedcloses,cost30bpapproxroundtrip. Unconditionalfixedpathmean+.68369%,target51.19%,stop47.145%,timeout1.665%,loss47.75%,p05-6.98464%. Halfat+1R/stopBE scenario mean+.52896%,target45.62%,stop39.45%,BE14.54%,timeout.39%;half taken51.14%. Positive means inherit2026upwarddrift and ignore entry conditioning; observed strategy loses22.34%, so cannot size from unconditional51%targetodds. No 20–04quotes/executablebid or stressregime coverage; halfsharemanagement impracticalforwhole-shareafterhourstreatment. Atone133.35share,p05model loss9.314 exceeds8.5099riskbudget despite nominal4.857stoprisk. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . No proposal.

1255matched dailylogreturns Sep2021–Sep4 2026. CF SIP,peersIEX adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CFannualizedvol38.3374%;1/5/50/95/99pctiles[-6.54592,-3.82171,.106695,3.88321,6.15356]%. Correlations CF/MOS.631186,CF/NTR.678122,CF/SPY.166138. NumpyOLS CF~constant+SPY+MOS+NTR coefficients[.000897788,-.163206,.284375,.524489],R².505259. Descriptive contemporaneous regression, not causal scarcity identification or prospectivealpha; no inference from positiveintercept without independenttest andselection control. Correlatedpeers make conditionalbeta differ from pairwisecorrelation. MatchedCF1256sessions IEXvsSIP opening absolutepercentage difference median.21175%,p95.92168%,max2.68442%;48sessions>1%. SIPhas2additionaldays. Sep4opens133.74IEX/135.43SIP,closeboth133.35. ADR20SIP4.857175 exceedsIEX4.44475by9.27892%. Feedcoverage changes breakoutlevels/stops and training sign. Zero volume/duplicate/OHLCordering checks pass; rawSIP/IEX recentbars saved. Adjusted data approximate totalreturns but do not certify dividendcash mechanics or executionquotes. Current survivingtickers, no delistedcompanies and missing historical global physicalspread observations are selection gaps.

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fixed training-only9neighbors lookback10/20/40×SMA20/50/100: SIPall9trainingreturnsnegative, range-19.50065% to-3.76505%; no parameter selected afterward. Breakoutonly andboth yield identical17holdouttrades -22.33999%; SMA50 adds no independent confirmation inthis regime. Trendonly SIPtrain-47.26636%N121,validation-3.73932%N27,holdout-14.71645%N46. IEXtrendonly holdout+24.39130% is contradicted by SIP and negativeearlierperiods; never substitute it for failedbaseline. SIPholdout highvol (prior20logvol>trainingmedian) N11 mean-2.30685%, win18.1818%; lowvolN6mean+.232226%,win50%,compound+1.05929%. MarketaboveSPY200DMA N16mean-1.16706%, belowN1-5.30901%. Tiny lowvol subgroup is posthoc diagnostic not a rescue rule. Trend, breakout andvolatility conditions are correlated; do not multiply their apparent winprobabilities. Missing broad regimes, survivorship and repeatedtest dependence prevent a calibrated conditional edge.

Premises:1 Combine indicators before observing outcomes.2 Lower prices and higher variance are not automatically cheap puts.3 Latest adjusted close is Friday, not a live Tuesday entry. Negative5day return AND belowSMA50 AND RV20>RV60 identifies TLT only in frozen10ETF universe; GLD/SLV negative5day but aboveSMA50, SLV RV20<RV60. TLT sigma base9.664805%,calibrated10.153005%,RV20 10.073024%,RV60 9.671873%,ATR14 .648757,S82.21. Current independent indicator vector is recorded for eachETF: [{"s":"XLF","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":58.1,"sigma":0.12267993731593207,"rv20":0.11775484665719067,"rv60":0.13056707990928815,"atr":0.668685714285715,"group":0,"bars":1173,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.1357243939553389},{"s":"XLE","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":64.06,"sigma":0.21401945770079178,"rv20":0.22475030400137094,"rv60":0.2224922977878737,"atr":1.1292500000000005,"group":0,"bars":1173,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.23677597027364897},{"s":"EEM","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":68.7,"sigma":0.20166026441613863,"rv20":0.18073895070009077,"rv60":0.2924132082263218,"atr":0.9553571428571408,"group":0,"bars":1173,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.223102634151732},{"s":"TLT","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":82.21,"sigma":0.09664805051714843,"rv20":0.10073024048323972,"rv60":0.09671872791382413,"atr":0.6487571428571438,"group":3,"bars":1173,"neg":true,"below":true,"calibrated_sigma":0.10153004646655651},{"s":"GLD","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":406.77,"sigma":0.26768441537626697,"rv20":0.26493605793901054,"rv60":0.25602865210674003,"atr":8.614992857142868,"group":2,"bars":1173,"neg":true,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.29605656775449324},{"s":"SLV","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":59.82,"sigma":0.385052024809816,"rv20":0.3783512980114636,"rv60":0.4221515215810461,"atr":1.9453571428571443,"group":2,"bars":1173,"neg":true,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.4258640934022009},{"s":"EWJ","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":98.28,"sigma":0.17289271857395147,"rv20":0.15821263484804274,"rv60":0.22696983825106004,"atr":1.1908642857142857,"group":0,"bars":1173,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.1912762588662743},{"s":"FXI","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":35.88,"sigma":0.14946725948267695,"rv20":0.1489055277485071,"rv60":0.17892742582250037,"atr":0.40071428571428414,"group":0,"bars":1173,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.1653599900137639},{"s":"IBIT","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":45.23,"sigma":0.45594548449791,"rv20":0.47183834280184284,"rv60":0.38440096989714573,"atr":1.6296285714285712,"group":0,"bars":665,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.5044257921390024},{"s":"ETHA","date":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","S":18.52,"sigma":0.5625059914774319,"rv20":0.5870128789751659,"rv60":0.5202515835050644,"atr":0.7705999999999998,"group":0,"bars":533,"neg":false,"below":false,"calibrated_sigma":0.6223167900136077}]. Relation to outcomes: TLT10session stockrebound holdout-3.0351%,N6,p33.333%,W.305567%,L.917893%; bearish indicators do not validate a longput. Calibration1040 provides insufficient incremental information versusglobalmean correction,95%CIspans0. Do not optimize a newrule after inspecting2026. S-2ATR is a sensitivity destination, not guaranteed support/target. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":13.996199175251235,"drawdown":2.1118788493701746,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":2.186151540297165,"L":1.1390707902820763,"K":0.13909088697554578},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":9.800433545740827,"drawdown":3.247244029578733,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.9819836561427038,"L":1.3365948752355334,"K":0.1279103531809142},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":3.7958778097332946,"drawdown":6.224867269437451,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.7866467942134083,"L":1.4388637795631258,"K":0.0995547364564297},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-12.827759131036965,"drawdown":20.217651614645593,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":1.184189668752127,"L":1.5176856670756282,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-21.605712242719687,"drawdown":24.332136353868872,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":0.9820237059189548,"L":1.7144532789377003,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-33.141465193242716,"drawdown":33.931176308542256,"n":60,"win":43.333333333333336,"W":0.7465229633018998,"L":1.9019559992663877,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-2.6653283715368015,"drawdown":7.133349725727189,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.548491364877339,"L":3.3989410591496516,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-3.6760855283682226,"drawdown":7.320704682648338,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3455975267092213,"L":3.5919499199183704,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-5.171608440717845,"drawdown":7.8754718172610705,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.2663493906045302,"L":2.9304682386206156,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":20.759908670711003,"drawdown":13.872723863560088,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.9649111398957855,"L":3.6141007362267206,"K":0.10400968412734868},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":16.742182108724933,"drawdown":14.558992689267725,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.753193288396973,"L":3.8066797076381014,"K":0.09893965495150786},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":10.96615787520534,"drawdown":15.578158287147403,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.4364088683773595,"L":4.094827435071778,"K":0.09061610365135982},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":6.940974911604836,"drawdown":34.80516152307028,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.830075071595619,"L":3.3621545599316223,"K":0.010842413646468083},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-2.5211954941603665,"drawdown":37.6482998095734,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.622622625761382,"L":3.4309614768445766,"K":0.0020211412582098187},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-15.165648685999678,"drawdown":42.06206291350907,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.3122203508941164,"L":3.7202346718946724,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":18.805399117637435,"drawdown":4.498996563377656,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.925096881241085,"L":5.5159056707899445,"K":0.12931629240260448},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":17.800225354716503,"drawdown":4.58488672022238,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.713458578690741,"L":5.704684833091266,"K":0.12509597673500467},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":16.30957021028774,"drawdown":4.713364133058873,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.39679318438073,"L":5.987147067702302,"K":0.11816314032296346}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":9.293369210172164,"drawdown":2.813020455004689,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":2.1861515402971756,"L":1.1390707902820763,"K":0.13909088697554595},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":5.546758441590205,"drawdown":4.60297542989948,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.9819836561427056,"L":1.3365948752355288,"K":0.12791035318091443},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":0.16838021502336709,"drawdown":7.305630061059388,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.7866467942134232,"L":1.438863779563116,"K":0.09955473645643073},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-8.701781739229443,"drawdown":16.738764340733404,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":1.1841896687521285,"L":1.517685667075628,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-17.50085931262333,"drawdown":20.821390713008782,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":0.9820237059189574,"L":1.7144532789376998,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-29.13286399434013,"drawdown":30.129263244611117,"n":60,"win":43.333333333333336,"W":0.7465229633019028,"L":1.9019559992663895,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":0.0007806174884272821,"drawdown":5.0621265763051815,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.548491364877351,"L":3.3989410591496627,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-0.9316132170227864,"drawdown":5.172645503699869,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.345597526709222,"L":3.5919499199183837,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-2.3128813999385045,"drawdown":5.3595781796794135,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.2663493906045047,"L":2.9304682386205982,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":17.544974889152144,"drawdown":15.162521557737064,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.964911139895788,"L":3.6141007362267183,"K":0.10400968412734873},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":13.844510891117977,"drawdown":15.777908565352893,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.7531932883969645,"L":3.8066797076380916,"K":0.09893965495150793},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":8.51317239135312,"drawdown":16.69244432293947,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.436408868377353,"L":4.094827435071767,"K":0.09061610365135996},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":14.869382552154931,"drawdown":31.029547304530823,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.830075071595614,"L":3.362154559931626,"K":0.010842413646467805},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":5.069509297110808,"drawdown":34.152681887991974,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.622622625761382,"L":3.4309614768445753,"K":0.0020211412582098742},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-8.082436742087262,"drawdown":38.57291496026926,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.312220350894119,"L":3.7202346718946684,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":16.272071677431875,"drawdown":3.259438506533352,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.9250968812410845,"L":5.5159056707899445,"K":0.12931629240260445},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":15.360114144667957,"drawdown":3.3202615828992976,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.713458578690745,"L":5.704684833091259,"K":0.12509597673500478},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":14.00664949690591,"drawdown":3.411260141865591,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.396793184380734,"L":5.987147067702319,"K":0.11816314032296332}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":33.01485452718331,"drawdown":2.990121027029402,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":2.186151540297169,"L":1.1390707902820738,"K":0.13909088697554592},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":26.780957546726913,"drawdown":3.5431668457211574,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.981983656142701,"L":1.3365948752355363,"K":0.12791035318091404},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":17.973591557901592,"drawdown":6.544637716880142,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.7866467942134046,"L":1.4388637795631292,"K":0.09955473645642941},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-14.824561046512208,"drawdown":24.14651493551365,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":1.1841896687521276,"L":1.517685667075625,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-24.456154141667795,"drawdown":28.777878890509356,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":0.9820237059189557,"L":1.7144532789376963,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-36.90048434603251,"drawdown":38.54457163964985,"n":60,"win":43.333333333333336,"W":0.746522963301898,"L":1.9019559992663864,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-1.1838184824208287,"drawdown":8.605706684606107,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.5484913648773357,"L":3.398941059149665,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-2.946595540985031,"drawdown":9.424586815096625,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3455975267092237,"L":3.591949919918365,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-5.5319796414421525,"drawdown":10.639306653858927,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.2663493906045231,"L":2.930468238620625,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":66.03181325460493,"drawdown":13.872723863560111,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.96491113989578,"L":3.6141007362267192,"K":0.10400968412734865},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":58.884807026443895,"drawdown":14.686856458235976,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.7531932883969645,"L":3.8066797076380965,"K":0.09893965495150785},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":48.73696418618027,"drawdown":15.957004605348956,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.4364088683773675,"L":4.094827435071768,"K":0.0906161036513601},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":7.480388696910456,"drawdown":39.963976760586526,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.8300750715956178,"L":3.3621545599316223,"K":0.010842413646468041},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-3.329479822172654,"drawdown":42.31802072940659,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.622622625761382,"L":3.4309614768445766,"K":0.0020211412582098187},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-17.54040806162218,"drawdown":46.32301478428723,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.312220350894114,"L":3.720234671894671,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":25.78931937412321,"drawdown":13.573061522960984,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.925096881241083,"L":5.515905670789934,"K":0.12931629240260456},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":23.79270753181675,"drawdown":13.8319750873097,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.71345857869074,"L":5.704684833091253,"K":0.1250959767350048},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":20.857049092442125,"drawdown":14.219021148225996,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.3967931843807335,"L":5.9871470677023195,"K":0.1181631403229633}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":5.431621734920999,"drawdown":1.945752342192253,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.7430271246484126,"L":0.7016199308170606,"K":0.1477322200324449},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":2.496271168430675,"drawdown":3.279251418359508,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.5397446037406999,"L":0.9000180432434625,"K":0.13446177421649366},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-1.751962996195866,"drawdown":5.965608728857741,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.320095186320498,"L":1.0618430668256271,"K":0.09963595316023491},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-0.5789261858047068,"drawdown":5.762784362382256,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0038468067347501,"L":1.2707722720042538,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-7.77658653133556,"drawdown":9.848533390574655,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":0.8020411692102303,"L":1.4680332171998023,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-17.6018619619409,"drawdown":18.77606001077724,"n":60,"win":38.333333333333336,"W":0.6995612052335579,"L":1.3978266390857337,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-1.7436716330755608,"drawdown":5.0156874899942245,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.1950589784110888,"L":2.03597266145861,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-2.710998909742124,"drawdown":5.215482867307375,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.9928712986809246,"L":2.231704735128991,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-4.143075277649588,"drawdown":5.5929382240705205,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.690346469503819,"L":2.524570315418771,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":10.138289656161525,"drawdown":10.844201846576063,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":5.131949218671954,"L":3.349178294474399,"K":0.11854212418224797},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":7.296093361717126,"drawdown":10.844201836061462,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":4.92189562634034,"L":3.5422865813215236,"K":0.1132057093082584},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":3.171737633343974,"drawdown":11.304572229051557,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":4.938876966923198,"L":3.3561051431423934,"K":0.09731563718158076},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":29.987820549036613,"drawdown":15.177527349718268,"n":53,"win":60.37735849056604,"W":3.686764448215846,"L":3.8698503108205675,"K":0.0469676108768666},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":21.70733543718464,"drawdown":16.233453045068526,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.5930069277538665,"L":3.7033742637881115,"K":0.03926518976742317},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":10.272184746003932,"drawdown":19.074450255177723,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.282693366998174,"L":3.991831443684101,"K":0.020035323530694538},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":9.282616155618362,"drawdown":2.201405194887951,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.8206897886506854,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":8.391549384029018,"drawdown":2.3236974120927734,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.6172520976238316,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":7.069683174374397,"drawdown":2.5068413654119714,"n":8,"win":87.5,"W":1.5302850305415348,"L":0.2091397762892847,"K":0.2144791498782241}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":3.3664807992662027,"drawdown":2.6053717609065385,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.743027124648448,"L":0.7016199308170623,"K":0.14773222003244543},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":0.5484633973574127,"drawdown":4.403821575067191,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.5397446037406948,"L":0.9000180432434585,"K":0.1344617742164937},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-3.5329724698256126,"drawdown":7.264643254549652,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3200951863205381,"L":1.0618430668256265,"K":0.09963595316023699},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-2.1318296351150123,"drawdown":5.3801116382481755,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0038468067347557,"L":1.2707722720042522,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-9.178735745511258,"drawdown":10.219369124186839,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":0.8020411692102223,"L":1.468033217199808,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-18.80316314408751,"drawdown":19.513211673058308,"n":60,"win":38.333333333333336,"W":0.6995612052335601,"L":1.3978266390857392,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-0.7222548475890322,"drawdown":3.554236559464774,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.1950589784110885,"L":2.035972661458587,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-1.6783485216956828,"drawdown":3.686054713401654,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.9928712986809477,"L":2.2317047351290125,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-3.0942233525427576,"drawdown":4.1579576928534205,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.6903464695038166,"L":2.524570315418752,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":8.052277187577461,"drawdown":8.543889601525912,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":5.131949218671869,"L":3.3491782944744024,"K":0.11854212418224705},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":5.360824886468363,"drawdown":8.885781576170338,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":4.9218956263403175,"L":3.5422865813215125,"K":0.11320570930825832},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":1.4510110065966142,"drawdown":10.47093229295032,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":4.938876966923131,"L":3.3561051431423934,"K":0.09731563718157991},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":22.448298658629984,"drawdown":15.674714972099624,"n":53,"win":60.37735849056604,"W":3.6867644482158424,"L":3.869850310820565,"K":0.04696761087686657},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":14.617314375925062,"drawdown":17.510830506263208,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.5930069277538674,"L":3.7033742637881173,"K":0.039265189767423034},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":3.8064447384475564,"drawdown":20.18802823834045,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.2826933669981657,"L":3.9918314436841005,"K":0.020035323530694232},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":9.059353593594576,"drawdown":1.7363950759861968,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.820689788650672,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":8.146408847651433,"drawdown":1.8719699810819002,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.6172520976238434,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":6.792256927268747,"drawdown":2.123136341965459,"n":8,"win":87.5,"W":1.5302850305415334,"L":0.20913977628929456,"K":0.2144791498782239}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":27.427176177736712,"drawdown":2.2631802071617746,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.743027124648422,"L":0.701619930817061,"K":0.14773222003244507},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":21.455152298939637,"drawdown":3.4379575771927406,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.5397446037406715,"L":0.9000180432434628,"K":0.13446177421649286},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":13.01776551429301,"drawdown":7.340129418960995,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3200951863204553,"L":1.0618430668256196,"K":0.09963595316023321},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-6.003823348299342,"drawdown":11.90441448332119,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0038468067347541,"L":1.2707722720042596,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-16.632860762834056,"drawdown":20.16088442964261,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":0.8020411692102272,"L":1.4680332171998045,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-30.365921327359867,"drawdown":31.377915952768742,"n":60,"win":38.333333333333336,"W":0.6995612052335577,"L":1.3978266390857312,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-2.297982909408469,"drawdown":7.763162215976671,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.1950589784110892,"L":2.035972661458602,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-4.0408844409915545,"drawdown":8.223217872074907,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.9928712986809405,"L":2.2317047351289947,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-6.5971180194952295,"drawdown":9.141618421729858,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.6903464695038162,"L":2.5245703154187624,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":65.39049301964086,"drawdown":11.031333271902987,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":5.1319492186719415,"L":3.349178294474394,"K":0.11854212418224791},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":58.271093064491495,"drawdown":11.209092606618265,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":4.921895626340337,"L":3.542286581321518,"K":0.11320570930825846},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":48.16244763241136,"drawdown":11.932179179331836,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":4.938876966923199,"L":3.356105143142376,"K":0.09731563718158108},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":43.006249127765585,"drawdown":29.10394097237744,"n":53,"win":60.37735849056604,"W":3.686764448215843,"L":3.869850310820564,"K":0.0469676108768666},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":28.62335772617226,"drawdown":30.808127206392598,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.59300692775387,"L":3.70337426378811,"K":0.039265189767423325},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":9.715242694065672,"drawdown":33.6693145907593,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.2826933669981644,"L":3.991831443684097,"K":0.020035323530694288},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":15.482902879297278,"drawdown":5.700328889994422,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.8206897886506819,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":13.649881359119597,"drawdown":5.888739581753743,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.6172520976238316,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":10.954753051209343,"drawdown":6.170650489580942,"n":8,"win":87.5,"W":1.530285030541547,"L":0.20913977628928682,"K":0.21447914987822408}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":2.9420196446382274,"drawdown":1.5092562928412656,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":2.134948731017885,"L":0.8551566795350941,"K":0.13328738425460224},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":1.030188133892307,"drawdown":2.3443774428746122,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.9308831501531403,"L":1.0532480253074052,"K":0.12121043656353694},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-1.7686333323013947,"drawdown":3.8708760712009016,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.6255484973471825,"L":1.3496436841389186,"K":0.0974775239280017},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-2.976173643757485,"drawdown":4.396199661468669,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.2549108591143914,"L":1.2594147607829862,"K":0.007899659939188106},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-8.14970776808195,"drawdown":8.48198921058031,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0526035952368733,"L":1.4566983983029806,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-15.390169239740281,"drawdown":15.535867170611672,"n":60,"win":41.66666666666667,"W":0.9495663981227371,"L":1.465627000143719,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":0.4472237407078472,"drawdown":1.12953747295238,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.050610671851525,"L":1.058348124460177,"K":0.02695947564212388},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-0.44562299473345224,"drawdown":1.3480710960800613,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.8487116000543986,"L":1.2560334934209383,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-1.7684609048439603,"drawdown":2.0509675645148717,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.5466186026573245,"L":1.551821706409417,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":6.141391116512884,"drawdown":12.439589888122738,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":5.262668102810489,"L":3.613171100820065,"K":0.1350068362719273},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":4.271373249218802,"drawdown":12.439589876230805,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":5.052353333952478,"L":3.8057519296444124,"K":0.13045932606113123},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":1.5303037586992696,"drawdown":12.439589858388455,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":4.737668286836175,"L":4.093902436246069,"K":0.12290107435884229},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":38.369255493890144,"drawdown":9.60958418608302,"n":53,"win":67.9245283018868,"W":3.6921576466277704,"L":3.9693852386948856,"K":0.08360163249902065},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":31.75082005431349,"drawdown":10.608803097080155,"n":53,"win":64.15094339622641,"W":3.6908390969727902,"L":3.724765573992856,"K":0.06993089876317146},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":22.421049131581206,"drawdown":12.16931241770325,"n":53,"win":64.15094339622641,"W":3.3802324790022045,"L":4.013158676010978,"K":0.05397346953474608},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":6.513268115285054,"drawdown":1.887466167089602,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.6697601728360034,"L":1.3993363983994187,"K":0.12050167281474879},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":5.7071589793074695,"drawdown":1.886371732637493,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.4626280364098085,"L":1.5963404722777421,"K":0.11302938325965597},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":4.510930623116938,"drawdown":1.9103811849883856,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.1527050268918284,"L":1.8911092923995523,"K":0.10001527627855969}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":1.4823627755976343,"drawdown":2.4722104921366728,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":2.1349487310179422,"L":0.8551566795350861,"K":0.13328738425460346},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":-0.6452892950703615,"drawdown":3.8450881458973796,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.9308831501531576,"L":1.0532480253074077,"K":0.12121043656353725},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-3.7511798622800074,"drawdown":6.022352468861325,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.6255484973473049,"L":1.3496436841389126,"K":0.09747752392800721},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-2.2981419759339206,"drawdown":3.6002301151548455,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.2549108591143836,"L":1.2594147607829955,"K":0.007899659939186468},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-7.235101511721009,"drawdown":7.663389057270464,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.05260359523687,"L":1.4566983983029813,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-14.170065394849097,"drawdown":14.257869288861114,"n":60,"win":41.66666666666667,"W":0.94956639812271,"L":1.4656270001437015,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-0.596599103120532,"drawdown":1.5291743616817621,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.050610671851544,"L":1.058348124460187,"K":0.026959475642124878},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-1.5349218446606416,"drawdown":2.12686642758112,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.8487116000544024,"L":1.2560334934209487,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-2.9245789456072036,"drawdown":3.318481291351383,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.5466186026573366,"L":1.5518217064094477,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":4.124370742903571,"drawdown":7.711617107008751,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":5.262668102810532,"L":3.6131711008200713,"K":0.1350068362719276},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":2.1134278561414144,"drawdown":8.337235486468519,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":5.052353333952462,"L":3.805751929644382,"K":0.13045932606113148},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-0.8282868191326842,"drawdown":9.332585376100278,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":4.7376682868361435,"L":4.093902436246095,"K":0.12290107435884154},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":38.96661810408584,"drawdown":7.245335557652821,"n":53,"win":67.9245283018868,"W":3.6921576466277655,"L":3.969385238694887,"K":0.08360163249902051},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":32.69209273882656,"drawdown":7.7314421009081595,"n":53,"win":64.15094339622641,"W":3.690839096972813,"L":3.724765573992841,"K":0.06993089876317239},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":23.815952896705063,"drawdown":9.184497428480043,"n":53,"win":64.15094339622641,"W":3.38023247900221,"L":4.013158676010964,"K":0.053973469534746604},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":4.32525892968505,"drawdown":2.948120656803821,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.669760172836007,"L":1.3993363983994285,"K":0.12050167281474856},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":3.4350495738303177,"drawdown":2.947106490651352,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.4626280364098228,"L":1.5963404722777241,"K":0.11302938325965664},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":2.1150839300856816,"drawdown":2.9455861693440943,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.1527050268918373,"L":1.8911092923995274,"K":0.10001527627856058}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":30.533975147586112,"drawdown":2.430304973352204,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":2.134948731017875,"L":0.8551566795350962,"K":0.13328738425460201},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":24.416347490235026,"drawdown":2.43030497096256,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.930883150153103,"L":1.0532480253074052,"K":0.12121043656353606},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":15.773248970480335,"drawdown":4.734348924033627,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.6255484973471963,"L":1.3496436841389088,"K":0.09747752392800278},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":1.7911373627534477,"drawdown":8.288556843642159,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.2549108591143827,"L":1.2594147607829855,"K":0.007899659939187328},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-9.719350056697918,"drawdown":14.134520506777637,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0526035952368598,"L":1.4566983983029798,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-24.591272570792157,"drawdown":26.42301149218489,"n":60,"win":41.66666666666667,"W":0.9495663981227316,"L":1.465627000143716,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":0.9653579809471458,"drawdown":2.9334282774735043,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.0506106718515236,"L":1.0583481244601807,"K":0.02695947564212335},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-0.8357581368018896,"drawdown":3.2242155517375193,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.8487116000543993,"L":1.2560334934209578,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-3.4773723732903106,"drawdown":4.058278500456036,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.5466186026573255,"L":1.5518217064094249,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":79.82105105130755,"drawdown":12.439589888122715,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":5.262668102810501,"L":3.6131711008200686,"K":0.13500683627192736},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":72.08047319898361,"drawdown":12.439589876230784,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":5.052353333952443,"L":3.805751929644383,"K":0.13045932606113125},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":61.08983389976077,"drawdown":12.439589858388445,"n":22,"win":72.72727272727273,"W":4.7376682868362066,"L":4.0939024362460765,"K":0.12290107435884257},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":82.69834294510616,"drawdown":27.319227551914725,"n":53,"win":67.9245283018868,"W":3.6921576466277637,"L":3.9693852386948882,"K":0.08360163249902046},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":64.32340861030043,"drawdown":27.898353568630075,"n":53,"win":64.15094339622641,"W":3.690839096972797,"L":3.7247655739928573,"K":0.0699308987631716},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":40.16725236851681,"drawdown":28.87167777720727,"n":53,"win":64.15094339622641,"W":3.380232479002207,"L":4.013158676010971,"K":0.05397346953474634},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":14.552452842227348,"drawdown":4.4943330612658094,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.6697601728360105,"L":1.3993363983994276,"K":0.12050167281474862},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":12.734200047177357,"drawdown":4.520746499651585,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.462628036409808,"L":1.5963404722777266,"K":0.11302938325965639},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":10.060786491984409,"drawdown":4.949616388622779,"n":8,"win":62.5,"W":3.1527050268918346,"L":1.891109292399543,"K":0.10001527627856008}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.

Premises:1 Buy-side value must exceed ask plus costs, not midpoint.2 American chain relationships require same deliverables and synchronous executablequotes.3 Future-session time must replace Friday time for a Tuesday decision. 10 venue indicative chains expiriesSep11-Oct16:9574contracts,784 positivebid withask*100+.20<=8.5099; wholecontract premium within42.55fundcash. Fullpagination completed. CRR160 American tree, exp20UTC; T fromSep8 13:50UTC /365.25days, rawSep4latestclose, sigma benchmark or traincalibrated or .8min(both), r4% assumption, continuousq0/5%sensitivity (NOT verified discretecash), standard100deliverable unverified. Recurrence max(intrinsic,discounted riskneutral continuation). Every784 base q0 value belowask evenzero fee; zero passesask+.002, zero survivesworst6scenarios. Three passcalibrated/favorablecarry only, notrobust. Closest base withbid>=.03 TLT260914P81: S82.21,ask.06,bid.05,feedIV9.96%,sigma9.6648%,cal10.1530%; basevalue.05532265,calq0 .06505843,low .02257307. ETHA260925P15.5 S18.52,ask.08,bid.07,IV58.62%,base56.2506%,cal62.2317%; basevalue.0645344,cal.0978300,low.0214011. Positivecalibration is uncertain statistical1040. Adjacent-strike bid/ask monotonicity/width screen284flags, adjacent American calendar147flags; derivedFridayquotes do not establish arbitrage. A subset has affordable legs, but all affordable ownvalue gates fail; no spreads/writing allowed. Do not inferlegcheapness merely from relativeviolation, or marketwidefairness fromsample rejection. OPRA403 unsignedagreement; sourceprovider identifies indicativequotesasderived. Dividends,corporateactions,actualfees,synchronousunderlyings andexecutablehistory remainunverified; exact American discretecashmodel requiredbeforeaction. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative ; same endpoint each namedETF; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data . Full measuredinputs/quotes/greeks/values andflags are recordedinobservations.