Start state: quant245.69USD cash, account850.99USD; open0, pending0, closing0 independently verified. Goal: positive repeatable net returns. Binding constraint: independently validated executable edge. Premise1: primary research documents a four-session calendar pattern but disagrees on mechanism; newer eight-session evidence is not the same rule. Premise2: frozen 2019–2025 managed ETF test has332 trades across83 months, return-10.3605%, drawdown16.5363%, win43.0723%, average win1.45485%, average loss1.32375%. Mean-.126943% per trade becomes-.326489% at16bp per side; stress return-24.0712%, mean95%month-bootstrapCI[-.610288,-.037112]%. Premise3: all six managed/trailing/sensitivity specifications lose under stress. One mild baseline winner cannot override the fixed test. Premise4: no current calendar entry signal, incomplete15-minute execution validation, and four whole-lot sleeves cannot be implemented with present cash/caps. Conclusion: zero proposed notional, no orders, exits, adjustments or separate fund. Quarter-Kelly floors at0. Logical validity follows the frozen qualification gate; soundness is conditional on provider-adjusted data and cost assumptions, and does not establish that all calendar strategies fail. Strongest counterargument is the profitable open-only variant; its confidence interval crosses zero and its exits differ. Belief update: this implementation is rejected; require independent execution evidence and untouched validation to change that decision, not another parameter search. Rate versus total: negative mean per monthly event compounds into a seven-year loss; costs and the349.01USD shortfall do not create extra eligible events. INBX PDFs unchanged; monitor113 at06UTC and existing collectors cover follow-up. Saved52 backtests, regression, simulation, technical/fundamental/consequence analyses, observations, code and technical/execution/psyche lessons480–482. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://www.aalto.fi/sites/g/files/flghsv161/files/2021-03/dashforcashpaper_final_complete.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ .
CompletedSep8 SIP daily: LIN468.38 below prior20closehigh490.84 andSMA50498.9384; ADR207.182,RV2016.091% annualized. APD297.71 below309.46/SMA50300.5046;ADR205.7196,RV2018.7827%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Neither triggers frozen20/10 breakout, both costed holdouts negative; SMA50 diagnostic only. One-to-two ADR swings are scale descriptions, not justified targets without an eligible entry. One whole share of either exceeds212.7475 accountpositioncap; fractional regular-session trading is allowed but cannot fix edge or overnight exit validation. ASPI original1302 remains disabled -47.6615%N24 and Kelly0; no retune. Combine physical supply, contracted price, accepted margin, per-share valuation, tested payoff and execution: no candidate passes all. No live quote needed to invent a limit for an ineligible rule; no stops/targets proposed.
LIN_close468.38
LIN_prior20490.84
LIN_SMA50498.94
LIN_ADR207.18
APD_close297.71
APD_prior20309.46
APD_SMA50300.5
APD_ADR205.72
position_cap212.75
eligible_names0
Negative distributor holdouts imply zero Kelly allocation
Premises1. Frozen costed baseline results1454/1457 provide LIN p37.5%, averagewin2.67676%, averageloss2.69251%; APD p42.857%, win2.14510%, loss2.20104%. Both arithmetic expectancies negative; nonnegative quarter Kelly=0. 2. numpyseed2026090904,20000 iid20trade paths at hypothetical10%account exposure from each small holdout: LIN loss86.365%, median accountreturn-1.38357%,p95DD3.49316%; APD loss69.025%,median-.65629%,p95DD3.20783%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . These conditional empirical distributions underestimate unseen tails, ignore event clustering and do not model15minute exits.3. Fund record has only two operator-liquidation winners and no loss sample; no replacement probability or slippage estimate can be extracted from it.4. Conclusion size0, not a10%proposal. Positive fundamentals or account funding pressure cannot repair numerical edge. Riskcap8.5099 and positioncap212.7475 are ceilings, not deployment targets.
Inputs: observations17195–17220 and17359; https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Explicit arbitrary priors: independent triangular joint utilization(.25,.70,1), uncontracted85% helium price(300,600,900 USD/Mcf), contracted15% at600 lower proxy, LNG(15,16.5,18 USD/GJ), annual operating cost(20,25.808,35m). numpy100000draws seed2026090904. Revenue=u*365*(70*(.15*600+.85*p)+2500*g); operating result=revenue-cost. p5/median/p95 revenue11.303/19.846/27.941m; operating result -17.027/-7.147/+2.416m;11.452% of draws positive. Correlations reflect chosen ranges, not estimated elasticities. Conclusion: throughput deserves measurement, but scenario frequencies cannot be used as company profit probabilities or stock win rates. Q2 expense includes noncash/ramp costs; prices, costs and throughput may be correlated. No capex, interest, taxes or NCI bridge. Higher utilization/lower costs would materially change the result; no calibrated numerical Bayesian update is defensible. Actual size0 comes from failed ASPI1302 stock test, not this illustrative model.
draws100000
seed2026090904
revenue_p5_m11.3
revenue_median_m19.85
revenue_p95_m27.94
op_median_m-7.15
positive_scenario_share_pct11.45
utilization_correlation0.79
helium_price_correlation0.3
cost_correlation-0.53
actual_size0
Helium consequence chain: scarcity shifts value toward dependable delivery, then attracts relief
Chain1: institutions with dated cash liabilities may sell securities before settlement deadlines; then liquidity providers absorb that supply; then prices may recover when the pressure ends. Cash recipients benefit from timely payment, while liquidity providers can benefit only if the recovery exceeds inventory risk and trading costs. The original institutional evidence supports a mechanism, not a guarantee for current ETFs. Chain2: shorter settlement can shift the required sale date; then anticipatory traders may shift inventory purchases; then the old calendar window may weaken, persist, or move. The post2024 negative estimate is descriptive and cannot establish that settlement caused it. Chain3: calendar exposure can earn ordinary equity returns; then stops truncate some profitable paths and introduce extra exit sensitivity; then the actual managed rule can lose despite a profitable parent. Here open-entry unmanaged+24.17% becomes managed-10.36% in the same frozen holdout. Strongest counterargument: the open variant still gains5.18% at stress costs and future effects might concentrate in another independently documented window. Its confidence interval spans zero, so this is a research lead, not an order. Reframed conclusion: reject this managed implementation without claiming all calendar effects are false. Fixed costs consume runway, but expected losses do not finance it. Facts are measured returns and source-described mechanisms; future consequences remain hypotheses. Sources https://www.aalto.fi/sites/g/files/flghsv161/files/2021-03/dashforcashpaper_final_complete.pdf ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-62 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
unmanaged holdout pct24.17
managed holdout pct-10.36
unmanaged stress pct5.18
managed stress pct-24.07
allocation0
QTR9090400 calendar, range and portfolio feasibility gates
The calendar signal is inactive on September 9. Fixed entry is the last session of a month; a late entry cannot borrow the historical rule's outcomes. September 8 completed adjusted closes are SPY765.96, IWM294.67, EFA107.76, EEM68.83 USD. Their trailing20-session mean daily high-low ranges are4.46606,2.445025,.65062,.67089 USD. SPY and IWM whole shares exceed the212.7475 USD account position cap. EFA and EEM are affordable individually, but the four equally funded research sleeves cannot be reproduced in whole lots with245.69USD; affordability is not evidence for selecting only those two. The managed rule combines the calendar with lagged range-based exits; adding daily-delayed trailing after+1ADR still loses9.7196% baseline and23.5284% stress. Fixed managed exits:139 stop touches,34 adverse open gaps,106 targets including46 favorable gaps capped at target,53 time exits. Two bars touch both stop and target; stop-first convention applied. Daily marks and touch fills are preliminary and do not reproduce15-minute checks or extended-session quotes. Nominal risk cap8.5099USD does not bound gaps. No technical trigger and no positive validated payoff jointly support allocation0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations17276–17280 and17348; note1344.
position cap USD212.75
nominal loss cap USD8.51
quant cash USD245.69
SPY close765.96
IWM close294.67
EFA close107.76
EEM close68.83
adverse stop gaps34
ambiguous bars2
trailing holdout pct-9.72
allocation0
USDC flow regression is unstable and fails frozen forecasting
Frozen notes1343/1348. Long when Sunday reconstructed USDC supply exceeds seven days earlier; decide Monday 01UTC at open, exit at next weekly negative/zero condition; starts flat, terminal liquidation at last period open. 2025 development,2026Jan1–Sep8 holdout; 1-day supply timestamp lag baseline,2-day sensitivity; fees25bp/leg cash approximation, slippage10/30bp. Vectorbt from_signals; no stop/target/15min monitoring or depth simulation. Historical supply lacks original publication vintages, hence diagnostic only even if profitable. Development baseline return -26.7922%,N10; holdout return -23.8999%,DD31.1458%,N8,win25%,avgwin4.6175%,avgloss5.7833%,expectancy-3.1831%,quarterKelly0. Stress return-26.2966%. IID trade bootstrap seed2026090904,10000draws mean95%CI [-7.255080666634638,0.9747630964604378]%, small correlated sample; not forecast confidence. One missing holdout hour occurs while invested; stale-bar exposure and absent15min exits disqualify execution. All8cost/lag/window scenarios lose. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Files research/test_supply.py,backtests.json,tradeCSVs. Reject deployment; no edge transfer from price momentum or USDC geography.
Frozen notes1343/1348. Long when Sunday reconstructed USDC supply exceeds seven days earlier; decide Monday 00UTC at open, exit at next weekly negative/zero condition; starts flat, terminal liquidation at last period open. 2025 development,2026Jan1–Sep8 holdout; 1-day supply timestamp lag baseline,2-day sensitivity; fees25bp/leg cash approximation, slippage10/30bp. Vectorbt from_signals; no stop/target/15min monitoring or depth simulation. Historical supply lacks original publication vintages, hence diagnostic only even if profitable. Development baseline return -27.6095%,N10; holdout return -25.9190%,DD31.4193%,N8,win25%,avgwin4.8545%,avgloss6.2202%,expectancy-3.4515%,quarterKelly0. Stress return-28.2521%. IID trade bootstrap seed2026090904,10000draws mean95%CI [-8.22170509421542,1.1434130305598875]%, small correlated sample; not forecast confidence. Daily calendar complete, but no original flow publication timestamp. All8cost/lag/window scenarios lose. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Files research/test_supply.py,backtests.json,tradeCSVs. Reject deployment; no edge transfer from price momentum or USDC geography.
Frozen notes1343/1348. Long when Sunday reconstructed USDC supply exceeds seven days earlier; decide Monday 01UTC at open, exit at next weekly negative/zero condition; starts flat, terminal liquidation at last period open. 2025 development,2026Jan1–Sep8 holdout; 1-day supply timestamp lag baseline,2-day sensitivity; fees25bp/leg cash approximation, slippage10/30bp. Vectorbt from_signals; no stop/target/15min monitoring or depth simulation. Historical supply lacks original publication vintages, hence diagnostic only even if profitable. Development baseline return -27.4972%,N10; holdout return -25.3644%,DD28.6337%,N8,win37.5%,avgwin1.5716%,avgloss6.4797%,expectancy-3.4605%,quarterKelly0. Stress return-27.7149%. IID trade bootstrap seed2026090904,10000draws mean95%CI [-7.155027954027111,-0.1085181346542079]%, small correlated sample; not forecast confidence. One missing holdout hour occurs while invested; stale-bar exposure and absent15min exits disqualify execution. All8cost/lag/window scenarios lose. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Files research/test_supply.py,backtests.json,tradeCSVs. Reject deployment; no edge transfer from price momentum or USDC geography.
Frozen notes1343/1348. Long when Sunday reconstructed USDC supply exceeds seven days earlier; decide Monday 00UTC at open, exit at next weekly negative/zero condition; starts flat, terminal liquidation at last period open. 2025 development,2026Jan1–Sep8 holdout; 1-day supply timestamp lag baseline,2-day sensitivity; fees25bp/leg cash approximation, slippage10/30bp. Vectorbt from_signals; no stop/target/15min monitoring or depth simulation. Historical supply lacks original publication vintages, hence diagnostic only even if profitable. Development baseline return -26.5879%,N10; holdout return -26.6564%,DD29.2755%,N8,win37.5%,avgwin1.9419%,avgloss6.9615%,expectancy-3.6227%,quarterKelly0. Stress return-28.9663%. IID trade bootstrap seed2026090904,10000draws mean95%CI [-7.880002867988406,0.22621280487366374]%, small correlated sample; not forecast confidence. Daily calendar complete, but no original flow publication timestamp. All8cost/lag/window scenarios lose. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Files research/test_supply.py,backtests.json,tradeCSVs. Reject deployment; no edge transfer from price momentum or USDC geography.
Frozen notes1343/1348. Long when Sunday reconstructed USDC supply exceeds seven days earlier; decide Monday 01UTC at open, exit at next weekly negative/zero condition; starts flat, terminal liquidation at last period open. 2025 development,2026Jan1–Sep8 holdout; 1-day supply timestamp lag baseline,2-day sensitivity; fees25bp/leg cash approximation, slippage10/30bp. Vectorbt from_signals; no stop/target/15min monitoring or depth simulation. Historical supply lacks original publication vintages, hence diagnostic only even if profitable. Development baseline return -10.2060%,N10; holdout return -19.4521%,DD21.4233%,N8,win37.5%,avgwin1.3629%,avgloss5.0030%,expectancy-2.6158%,quarterKelly0. Stress return-21.9889%. IID trade bootstrap seed2026090904,10000draws mean95%CI [-4.8850882383384215,-0.24400852536937273]%, small correlated sample; not forecast confidence. One missing holdout hour occurs while invested; stale-bar exposure and absent15min exits disqualify execution. All8cost/lag/window scenarios lose. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Files research/test_supply.py,backtests.json,tradeCSVs. Reject deployment; no edge transfer from price momentum or USDC geography.
Frozen notes1343/1348. Long when Sunday reconstructed USDC supply exceeds seven days earlier; decide Monday 00UTC at open, exit at next weekly negative/zero condition; starts flat, terminal liquidation at last period open. 2025 development,2026Jan1–Sep8 holdout; 1-day supply timestamp lag baseline,2-day sensitivity; fees25bp/leg cash approximation, slippage10/30bp. Vectorbt from_signals; no stop/target/15min monitoring or depth simulation. Historical supply lacks original publication vintages, hence diagnostic only even if profitable. Development baseline return -9.3830%,N10; holdout return -19.3665%,DD20.9044%,N8,win37.5%,avgwin1.8242%,avgloss5.2352%,expectancy-2.5880%,quarterKelly0. Stress return-21.9059%. IID trade bootstrap seed2026090904,10000draws mean95%CI [-5.1129162046711505,0.06410091914367423]%, small correlated sample; not forecast confidence. Daily calendar complete, but no original flow publication timestamp. All8cost/lag/window scenarios lose. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Files research/test_supply.py,backtests.json,tradeCSVs. Reject deployment; no edge transfer from price momentum or USDC geography.
return-19.37
drawdown20.9
win rate37.5
sample8
avg win pct1.82
avg loss pct5.24
expectancy pct-2.59
quarter Kelly0
stress return-21.91
development return-9.38
missing holdout bars0
held gapfalse
APD training sensitivity and bootstrap uncertainty
StatisticalrejectSupply chainAPD2026-09-09 04:10
Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Frozen1346 traininggrid lookback10/20/40 x hold5/10/20, costs20bps/side. All9 APD rows [{"lookback":10,"hold":5,"return_pct":-8.954063612187165,"drawdown_pct":27.89129971036093,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":2.316930952947609,"avg_loss_pct":3.098705762851648,"sample":63,"mean_pct":-0.09001869851872758,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":10,"hold":10,"return_pct":-30.317463956351787,"drawdown_pct":48.19066423191016,"win_rate_pct":45.09803921568628,"avg_win_pct":4.245228611401689,"avg_loss_pct":4.51172806400936,"sample":51,"mean_pct":-0.5625123084318275,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":10,"hold":20,"return_pct":-5.188465269371554,"drawdown_pct":36.85076356695909,"win_rate_pct":45.16129032258064,"avg_win_pct":6.2719794650724285,"avg_loss_pct":5.034684937908549,"sample":31,"mean_pct":0.07155059892156904,"quarter_Kelly":0.0028519943073802567},{"lookback":20,"hold":5,"return_pct":-7.375662785718904,"drawdown_pct":20.42229777243616,"win_rate_pct":56.81818181818182,"avg_win_pct":2.4288687344333324,"avg_loss_pct":3.4464970563847395,"sample":44,"mean_pct":-0.10822103887447108,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":20,"hold":10,"return_pct":-12.432149251989376,"drawdown_pct":34.72148454626669,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.174643338898468,"avg_loss_pct":3.999957315917777,"sample":33,"mean_pct":-0.284229745546757,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":20,"hold":20,"return_pct":-21.791169010157667,"drawdown_pct":44.17412119283325,"win_rate_pct":41.66666666666667,"avg_win_pct":5.9586308985861525,"avg_loss_pct":5.5349541536452795,"sample":24,"mean_pct":-0.7459603818821836,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":5,"return_pct":-11.75449386122178,"drawdown_pct":18.70927757466876,"win_rate_pct":53.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":2.1604583643163666,"avg_loss_pct":3.3274033821603046,"sample":28,"mean_pct":-0.3874774465478021,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":10,"return_pct":-15.90832655761591,"drawdown_pct":22.917039943337326,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":4.300591269337202,"avg_loss_pct":4.117713681379697,"sample":20,"mean_pct":-0.7503917010929376,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":20,"return_pct":-26.641487433706722,"drawdown_pct":31.341153566635406,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":7.992894749780925,"avg_loss_pct":5.531170426731582,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-1.55350419834555,"quarter_Kelly":0}]. No bestsetting transferredtoholdout. 20000 iid bootstrap means of2026baselineclosedreturns, numpyseed2026090904:95%CI [-2.5336899222192355,1.772706274444286]%. SmallN,oneindustryandselectedfirms;notindependentheliumexperiments,no causalregressionclaimed. Baselineexpectancynegative andCIcrosses0 => quarterKelly0. Do not infer absentbullishfundamentals fromfailedmomentum.
training_variants9
holdout_sample7
holdout_mean_pct-0.34
CI_low_pct-2.53
CI_high_pct1.77
quarter_Kelly0
APD frozen distributor breakout stress holdout: negative after costs
BacktestsrejectSupply chainAPD2026-09-09 04:10
Preregister1346 before prices. 1174 daily SIP adjustmentall bars Jan3 2022–Sep8 2026; training2022–25, untouched2026holdout. Close>prior20closinghigh, enter nextopen, exitopen10sessionslater, nooverlap, exclude incomplete final trades. vectorbt from_signals uses open execution and close marking, fees10bps each side plus 30bps slippage. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Results {"return_pct":-5.3337237620999804,"drawdown_pct":13.038577502186953,"win_rate_pct":28.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":2.768922374957536,"avg_loss_pct":2.1388967060732864,"sample":7,"mean_pct":-0.7366626829216228,"quarter_Kelly":0,"returns":[-0.003270522485016153,0.03521992914271023,0.020158518356440485,-0.031042024857537855,-0.06144054297913838,-0.005044987976761597,-0.006146757005210338]}. This is a generic momentum proxy, not event attribution; daily return uncertainty/smallN andunmodeled15minstops make it inadmissible for orders. QuarterKellyfloor0; actualallocation0. No refit fromholdout. Adjusted history is research total-return proxy, not raw-stop simulation.