Stats

Premises1 empirical20holdoutnetreturns are resamplinginput, not futuredistributiontruth. 2 NumPyseed2026090906 draws50000IIDpaths of10sequentialevents;49.14initialcash and allocationfractions0,.25,.5,1. Fullrecord [{"fraction":0,"Npaths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_p5_p50_p95":[49.14,49.14,49.14],"loss_probability":0,"drawdown_p95_pct":0,"mean_terminal":49.14},{"fraction":0.25,"Npaths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_p5_p50_p95":[43.78044537111727,46.69176413057034,49.221729694192796],"loss_probability":0.9435,"drawdown_p95_pct":11.13403381274194,"mean_terminal":46.62355777607553},{"fraction":0.5,"Npaths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_p5_p50_p95":[38.88202668885155,44.30087131622136,49.274671624534804],"loss_probability":0.94434,"drawdown_p95_pct":21.284056613646978,"mean_terminal":44.22365442948636},{"fraction":1,"Npaths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_p5_p50_p95":[30.33996927690226,39.70217042054193,49.311979556680186],"loss_probability":0.94674,"drawdown_p95_pct":38.87495481226604,"mean_terminal":39.75442905847402}]. Zeroallocationconstant49.14; .25allocationmeanterminal46.623558,p5/median/p95=43.780445/46.691764/49.221730,loss94.35%,p95drawdown11.134034%; fullallocationmean39.754429,loss94.674%,p95drawdown38.874955%. Samplingassumesstationaryindependentsequentialevents, no calendarfrequencyforecast, no crosspositionoverlap, no unprecedentedgap; pathcountsdoNOTincrease empiricalN20. 3 Estimatedpooledp.3,W.0211338,L.0390476 meansbinaryquarterKellyclipped0. TXRHpointKelly.068394 is selectedpositiveN7 withCIcrossingzero: operationalsize0. Strongestcounterargumentregimesmaychange; wouldneedindependentpositivenetactualwindowevidence. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and56primarydatedeventrows. No shutdownshortfall inparameters. DailyADRexitodds separatelydiagnostic, not MonteCarlo inferenceofapprovalhazards.

Premises1 indicators use only completedbar beforeentry: close>SMA50,20sessionreturn>0,SPYclose>SMA50, and stocktrend+momentum conjunction. All8train and8holdoutgroups recorded; unoptimized diagnostics, not separateindependenttests. 2 Holdoutgroups [{"N":11,"mean_pct":-2.922112663937392,"win_rate_pct":36.36363636363637,"avg_win_pct":2.829187284003626,"avg_loss_pct":6.208569777046545,"ci95_pct":[-6.438238271016298,0.35340030803703804],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"trend","flag":false},{"N":9,"mean_pct":-1.0936816874894673,"win_rate_pct":22.22222222222222,"avg_win_pct":0.6817739598587891,"avg_loss_pct":1.600954729588969,"ci95_pct":[-1.9009855593843938,-0.22550810477068367],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"trend","flag":true},{"N":10,"mean_pct":-2.2683090093165483,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":1.8949385108860906,"avg_loss_pct":5.043807356118307,"ci95_pct":[-5.251360306601313,0.39183858125622867],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"momentum","flag":false},{"N":10,"mean_pct":-1.9303284397551035,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":2.5502715060938597,"avg_loss_pct":3.050478426217344,"ci95_pct":[-4.921165789426624,0.4389641264631844],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"momentum","flag":true},{"N":5,"mean_pct":-1.2102136458877721,"win_rate_pct":60,"avg_win_pct":2.653899258268007,"avg_loss_pct":7.006383002121441,"ci95_pct":[-6.974044960067697,3.1836292103838466],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"market_trend","flag":false},{"N":15,"mean_pct":-2.395687084085177,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":1.57286642697602,"avg_loss_pct":3.3878254618504764,"ci95_pct":[-4.548472239078068,-0.6338772480641847],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"market_trend","flag":true},{"N":12,"mean_pct":-2.565411740106878,"win_rate_pct":41.66666666666667,"avg_win_pct":2.5350095116086546,"avg_loss_pct":6.208569777046545,"ci95_pct":[-5.8877158650114945,0.48208258579078334],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"both","flag":false},{"N":8,"mean_pct":-1.4001792011792469,"win_rate_pct":12.5,"avg_win_pct":0.005249497688808447,"avg_loss_pct":1.600954729588969,"ci95_pct":[-2.0952133076758988,-0.6845639310967544],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","gate":"both","flag":true}]. Allnegativecostedmean, even SPYweakgroup60%winrate loses1.2102%/event dueaveragewin2.6539vsaverage loss7.0064%; illustrates winratealonefails. Conjunction positivegroupN8mean-1.40018%,p12.5%; no choosingoppositegroupafterseeingdata. 3 CurrentSep8SPYabove50SMA while20momentumnegative; EATsame, TXRH/CBRLbelow50SMA andnegative20momentum. Mixedregime doesnotoverturn measurededge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; 56datedeventobservations and groupobservationrecords. All gates require confirmedpendingevent, independentcostededge and actualexecution; none qualify. Strongest counterargument is differentunexaminedregime may work, requires newpreregisteredfuturetest not moreholdoutfiltersearch.

Premises1 frozen pooled20event cash mean-2.099319%,p.30,W2.113383%,L3.904762%; ordinarybootstrap30000 CI[-4.141386,-.284650]%. 2 Events across three companies may share shocks, so calendar-quarter block resampling preserves withinquarter outcomes;7blocks/30000resamples givesmeanCI[-3.791963,-.301646]%. Fewblocks/currentlisted peers and retrospective dates limit generalization; neither interval estimates probability anyfuturetrade wins. 3 OLS netstockeventreturn versus simultaneousgrossSPY: {"holdout_quarter_blocks":7,"block_ci95_pct":[-3.7919634014513073,-0.30164586891220196],"OLS_alpha_pct":-2.6010243568358007,"OLS_beta":0.7172257731493704,"OLS_standard_errors":[0.010402481185520751,0.4598088076964301],"correlation":0.3450735209626099,"mean_excess_pct":-2.7988273745066206}. ConventionalOLSerrors ignore robustcluster uncertainty, no causal alpha claim. Simultaneous SPY outperforms by2.798827 percentagepoints/event onaverage; broadmarket exposure alone doesnotexplain loss. 4 Dropping two already-preannouncedCBRLtrainingfullreleases reduces trainmean.242401 to.150795%,N34CI[-1.434439,1.788231]%; no chosenholdout exclusions. Strongest counterexample: TXRHmean+.467328%,N7,CI[-.756842,1.730348]% merits independentlypreregistered futurestudy, not familywide shorting or allocating afterselection. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and primary56eventobservations17518–17594. Valid inference reject this longrunup transfer; invalid inference restaurantsfundamentallybad or inverse strategyprofitable. QuarterKellypool0.

Preregistered1386 before outcomes. 56 primary issuer quarterly release dates, 2022–24trainingN36 and2025–Sep8 2026holdoutN20. Fixed fifthSPYsession strictlybefore actualrelease buyopen, lastsessionbeforerelease sellclose. No eventday exposure to named quarterly release. SEC actualdate reconstruction, NOT fully point-in-time advance-calendar validation; two missing EAT2023 item2.02 metadata entries recovered from9.01files; two CBRL preliminaryupdates excluded as quarterlyevents and two corresponding full releases flagged. Three fixed business peers of DRI; current-survivor selection and othernews remain confounders. Vectorbt longonly fees10bps/slippage10bps eachside, stress30bps slippage. Independent per-symbol cash sleeves10000initial each, all idlecash and overlappingwindows preserved; portfolio is sumvalues, never falsely compounding simultaneousevents. Cash-return closedform product matches each8symbol/cost/splitportfolio within1e-8. Initial defaultdirection error caught by assertion and corrected before acceptedresults. Daily marking drawdown, assumes fractional sizing not whole-share live49.14cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; each56eventdate/fullpriorindicators/payoff persisted in observations17518–17594 (IDs interleavedotherfunds). TRAIN {"N":12,"mean_pct":-0.6708254739916865,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"avg_win_pct":6.2590039148525065,"avg_loss_pct":4.135740168413784,"ci95_pct":[-3.8062104646307464,2.7953941256903616],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"train","symbol":"CBRL","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-9.601152953811598,"drawdown_pct":29.604740372141613} HOLDOUT {"N":6,"mean_pct":-4.213368207821296,"win_rate_pct":16.666666666666664,"avg_win_pct":0.7521363663295366,"avg_loss_pct":5.2064691226514626,"ci95_pct":[-7.851833425619937,-1.0715403702908057],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","symbol":"CBRL","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-23.225649472763678,"drawdown_pct":25.78379011269729} STRESS {"N":6,"mean_pct":-4.5957511163217335,"win_rate_pct":16.666666666666664,"avg_win_pct":0.34993102493099393,"avg_loss_pct":5.584887544572279,"ci95_pct":[-8.223529604021431,-1.4626274186019215],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","symbol":"CBRL","slippage":0.003,"return_pct":-25.046306499542613,"drawdown_pct":27.398433909460064}. Holding-window and cost sweep fixed; no selecting winner after holdout. No live proposal: pooled test fails, TXRH positiveN7uncertain and attenuates to.3642%totalstress, DRI study remains separately frozen. Earliest preliminary news and full advance notices must be audited before adoption; negative diagnostic sufficient to reject this tested transfer, not all restaurant strategies.

Preregistered1386 before outcomes. 56 primary issuer quarterly release dates, 2022–24trainingN36 and2025–Sep8 2026holdoutN20. Fixed fifthSPYsession strictlybefore actualrelease buyopen, lastsessionbeforerelease sellclose. No eventday exposure to named quarterly release. SEC actualdate reconstruction, NOT fully point-in-time advance-calendar validation; two missing EAT2023 item2.02 metadata entries recovered from9.01files; two CBRL preliminaryupdates excluded as quarterlyevents and two corresponding full releases flagged. Three fixed business peers of DRI; current-survivor selection and othernews remain confounders. Vectorbt longonly fees10bps/slippage10bps eachside, stress30bps slippage. Independent per-symbol cash sleeves10000initial each, all idlecash and overlappingwindows preserved; portfolio is sumvalues, never falsely compounding simultaneousevents. Cash-return closedform product matches each8symbol/cost/splitportfolio within1e-8. Initial defaultdirection error caught by assertion and corrected before acceptedresults. Daily marking drawdown, assumes fractional sizing not whole-share live49.14cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; each56eventdate/fullpriorindicators/payoff persisted in observations17518–17594 (IDs interleavedotherfunds). TRAIN {"N":12,"mean_pct":2.2453732549595236,"win_rate_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":5.266439541268395,"avg_loss_pct":3.7967593176582186,"ci95_pct":[-0.7001050162157513,4.996190472732897],"quarterKelly":0.1065887701436869,"split":"train","symbol":"EAT","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":28.57458162535749,"drawdown_pct":10.727163461538458} HOLDOUT {"N":7,"mean_pct":-2.853922841204651,"win_rate_pct":14.285714285714285,"avg_win_pct":5.095293514498911,"avg_loss_pct":4.178792233821912,"ci95_pct":[-7.002105747579204,0.7948186668668811],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","symbol":"EAT","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-19.20650984542679,"drawdown_pct":23.127435607155057} STRESS {"N":7,"mean_pct":-3.241732693564673,"win_rate_pct":14.285714285714285,"avg_win_pct":4.675750168502879,"avg_loss_pct":4.561313170575931,"ci95_pct":[-7.302606461600682,0.4368704597632912],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","symbol":"EAT","slippage":0.003,"return_pct":-21.437359592742766,"drawdown_pct":24.549350709270456}. Holding-window and cost sweep fixed; no selecting winner after holdout. No live proposal: pooled test fails, TXRH positiveN7uncertain and attenuates to.3642%totalstress, DRI study remains separately frozen. Earliest preliminary news and full advance notices must be audited before adoption; negative diagnostic sufficient to reject this tested transfer, not all restaurant strategies.

Preregistered1386 before outcomes. 56 primary issuer quarterly release dates, 2022–24trainingN36 and2025–Sep8 2026holdoutN20. Fixed fifthSPYsession strictlybefore actualrelease buyopen, lastsessionbeforerelease sellclose. No eventday exposure to named quarterly release. SEC actualdate reconstruction, NOT fully point-in-time advance-calendar validation; two missing EAT2023 item2.02 metadata entries recovered from9.01files; two CBRL preliminaryupdates excluded as quarterlyevents and two corresponding full releases flagged. Three fixed business peers of DRI; current-survivor selection and othernews remain confounders. Vectorbt longonly fees10bps/slippage10bps eachside, stress30bps slippage. Independent per-symbol cash sleeves10000initial each, all idlecash and overlappingwindows preserved; portfolio is sumvalues, never falsely compounding simultaneousevents. Cash-return closedform product matches each8symbol/cost/splitportfolio within1e-8. Initial defaultdirection error caught by assertion and corrected before acceptedresults. Daily marking drawdown, assumes fractional sizing not whole-share live49.14cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; each56eventdate/fullpriorindicators/payoff persisted in observations17518–17594 (IDs interleavedotherfunds). TRAIN {"N":12,"mean_pct":-0.8473460314797445,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"avg_win_pct":1.5482584187357318,"avg_loss_pct":2.0451482565874826,"ci95_pct":[-2.066485672928843,0.37919552196426304],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"train","symbol":"TXRH","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-9.961821741898657,"drawdown_pct":11.463239693602512} HOLDOUT {"N":7,"mean_pct":0.46732780637768834,"win_rate_pct":57.14285714285714,"avg_win_pct":1.7082167937259085,"avg_loss_pct":1.1871908434199385,"ci95_pct":[-0.7568418856011084,1.7303476287174941],"quarterKelly":0.06839410080941302,"split":"holdout","symbol":"TXRH","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":3.214123919771983,"drawdown_pct":5.764383942993245} STRESS {"N":7,"mean_pct":0.06625942870239131,"win_rate_pct":42.857142857142854,"avg_win_pct":1.867584420248547,"avg_loss_pct":1.2847343149572255,"ci95_pct":[-1.1530233436869097,1.330667910699804],"quarterKelly":0.008869669823757309,"split":"holdout","symbol":"TXRH","slippage":0.003,"return_pct":0.36420121157676455,"drawdown_pct":6.515264597939874}. Holding-window and cost sweep fixed; no selecting winner after holdout. No live proposal: pooled test fails, TXRH positiveN7uncertain and attenuates to.3642%totalstress, DRI study remains separately frozen. Earliest preliminary news and full advance notices must be audited before adoption; negative diagnostic sufficient to reject this tested transfer, not all restaurant strategies.

Preregistered1386 before outcomes. 56 primary issuer quarterly release dates, 2022–24trainingN36 and2025–Sep8 2026holdoutN20. Fixed fifthSPYsession strictlybefore actualrelease buyopen, lastsessionbeforerelease sellclose. No eventday exposure to named quarterly release. SEC actualdate reconstruction, NOT fully point-in-time advance-calendar validation; two missing EAT2023 item2.02 metadata entries recovered from9.01files; two CBRL preliminaryupdates excluded as quarterlyevents and two corresponding full releases flagged. Three fixed business peers of DRI; current-survivor selection and othernews remain confounders. Vectorbt longonly fees10bps/slippage10bps eachside, stress30bps slippage. Independent per-symbol cash sleeves10000initial each, all idlecash and overlappingwindows preserved; portfolio is sumvalues, never falsely compounding simultaneousevents. Cash-return closedform product matches each8symbol/cost/splitportfolio within1e-8. Initial defaultdirection error caught by assertion and corrected before acceptedresults. Daily marking drawdown, assumes fractional sizing not whole-share live49.14cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; each56eventdate/fullpriorindicators/payoff persisted in observations17518–17594 (IDs interleavedotherfunds). TRAIN {"N":36,"mean_pct":0.24240058316269747,"win_rate_pct":44.44444444444444,"avg_win_pct":4.585035354031257,"avg_loss_pct":3.23170723353215,"ci95_pct":[-1.3093630427484408,1.8474011182634162],"quarterKelly":0.013216941879716018,"split":"train","symbol":"POOL","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":3.0038689765490734,"drawdown_pct":9.96419202369424} HOLDOUT {"N":20,"mean_pct":-2.099318724535826,"win_rate_pct":30,"avg_win_pct":2.1133828426220136,"avg_loss_pct":3.904762253317757,"ci95_pct":[-4.141386145550506,-0.28464991051639127],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","symbol":"POOL","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-13.072678466139498,"drawdown_pct":15.139313620991569} STRESS {"N":20,"mean_pct":-2.4901409775983185,"win_rate_pct":25,"avg_win_pct":2.125686890835903,"avg_loss_pct":4.028750267076393,"ci95_pct":[-4.543175890678291,-0.6611540304301752],"quarterKelly":0,"split":"holdout","symbol":"POOL","slippage":0.003,"return_pct":-15.373154960236201,"drawdown_pct":16.938369729343826}. Holding-window and cost sweep fixed; no selecting winner after holdout. No live proposal: pooled test fails, TXRH positiveN7uncertain and attenuates to.3642%totalstress, DRI study remains separately frozen. Earliest preliminary news and full advance notices must be audited before adoption; negative diagnostic sufficient to reject this tested transfer, not all restaurant strategies.

RequiredCLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy rsi --period 2 --low 10 --high 60 --days 616. Retrieved617bars inclcurrentpartialSep9; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . BTC/ETH/SOLuncostedreturn-14.5454/+53.1478/-28.7169%,maxDD33.2792/40.4938/43.7119%,N87/93/87,p59.7701/64.5161/54.0230%;avgtrade-.14368/.57454/-.29181%. Buyhold-16.4412/-25.5942/-46.3200%. Engine inspectionreveals sameclosesignalexecution,no feesandnosplit; CLIrsi logic differsfrom frozenpersistentpositionrule. ThusETHheadline53%cannotjustifytrading. Realcostednextopenvectorbt experiment1536–1541 uses2025train/2026holdout,completeddays,fees,slipandtrend/timeexit. Rejection ofCLIasvalidationdoesnotclaimnegativefutureETHreturns. StatsfiguresbelowETHillustrativeuncosted diagnostic,notfundperformance. Sources localCLIengine and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Startstate equity850.99,cryptocash235.86,noholdings/queuedorders; goalpositive repeatablenetcashprofit; bindingconstraint evidenceprecision/execution, notavailablecapital. Premises:1 Rawliquiditysnapshots do notidentify incrementalspotbuyers.2 PullbackOOSN1–5,not30minimum;allpositivebaselinesuncertaintyincludeszero;BTCcoststressnegative.3 Sampling10000pathsfromN1doesnotreduceepistemicuncertainty. Firstorder: stablecoinissuers/paymentusers/marketmakers benefitfromcirculation/turnover; takerpaystwofees (~.5%before spread), motivatingcosthurdle. Secondorder: onlynetnewdestination-specificspotpurchases orprotocolfees maybenefitmajorcoins; paymentsorrotation canoffset. Thirdorder: chasingtinypositivebacktestestimates increases costs and shrinks runway, while cash preservescapacity fornewindependentlymeasuredflow/priceedges. Who benefitsfromincreasedunvalidatedturnover: venueandliquidityproviders, notnecessarilyfund. Strongcounterargumentcash maymisscontinuingrally; valid, but futureupsidepossibilitydoesnotestablishentry-conditionedpayoff. Resolvebyprospective independentperiods,destination/publicationdata and15minexecution,notretuningthiscalendar. Assumptions fees25bp/legandslip5/15bp;facts sources https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.usdc.com/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises:1 Reuse actual dailybaseline entrytimestamps, gathercomplete72hour paths, freeze previousdayATR14 stop1ATRbelow entry,target1.5ATRabove; no RSIearlyexit in thisdistinct barrierdiagnostic. Hourlyclose firstcrossing, executeatobservedclosewith5bpslip andcreditedasset25bp/leg, notatidealbarrier. 2 Only3/1/1 BTC/ETH/SOL paths,none skipped:BTC0stop/0target/3time,ETH1stop,SOL1time. Netmean .224496/-3.888403/-3.406115%. 10000wholepathresamples yield0/100% empiricalfrequencies solelyfromtinyN; NOT calibrated exitodds, and hourlychecks miss15mincrossings/intrahour excursions. 3 Counterfactualbook235.86,initialallocation50=21.199%book rebalanced eachof10IIDtradecycles;10000paths baselinepayoffs. BTCdailyendingp5/median/p95=233.48/236.20/238.91,loss42.24%;BTC hourly232.13/236.67/241.26,loss38.4%. ETHdailydegenerate217.73,SOLdaily219.19;ETHhourly235.15/240.43/245.52,loss11.31%;SOLhourly230.72/240.36/247.69,loss21.93%. These are sensitivityillustrations,not22day/monthforecasts; variableholdingdurations,serialdependence,tailrisk andregimechanges omitted. Conclusion morepaths cannotreplaceindependentobservations; actualapprovedKelly/allocation0. Strongcounterargumentpositivehourlydistributions merely repeat3–5 favorablehistoricaltrades, trainingcontradictsETH/SOL. Allfiguresobservations and research/simulation.json. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Numberedpremises:1. Allcash supply278.67/account850.99; two operatorliquidations cannotcalibrate repeatableedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .2. Primaryfundamentals1503/1504 show electricaldemand and mixedsegmentmargin/cashconversion; not identifiednewallocationnotice orundervaluation. https://investors.wesco.com/news-releases/news-release-details/wesco-international-reports-second-quarter-2026-results and https://hubbell.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hubbell-reports-second-quarter-2026-results .3. Preregister1385, training1505–1513/1517–1525, holdouts1514–1516/1526–1528: WCC3.10999%,N9,p55.5556%,avgwin3.2902/loss3.1618%; HUBB10.1222%,N9,p55.5556%,win2.4269/loss.5660%. MeanCIs[-2.1918,3.0615]/[-.1562,2.4420]cross0; frozen training-37.5537/-43.2166%; stressWCC-.536/HUBB6.2283%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .4. Bothsignalsfalse, allOOSentriesaboveSPY200; source same.5. Simulation1532/1534 rawquarterKelly3.2114%/11.2975% isnotapprovedsize; nestedparameteruncertainty lossfrequencies39.505%/7.58% conditionalonN9notrealforecast; dailybarrierscannotcertify15minfills.6. DueASPI/FROsources offer no newverifiedcashbridge17423/17424; https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/capital-markets-day and https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4593050/us-destroys-5-irgc-tankers-after-iran-targets-another-american-warship/ .Conclusion no proposals/exit/adjust/newfund. Valid underrequirededgegate; soundnessboundedbyselectedsurvivors, issuerselfreports, costassumptionsanddailyexecutionproxy. CounterargumentHUBBcostedpositivepayoffisencouraging; answeredbyuncertainty/training/currententry ratherthanclaimingstockwillfall. Bindingconstraint validatedpositiveedge, notfundingdeadline. 18trainingscenarios/6holdoutdiagnostics/2CLI allrecorded; observations recordderivedfigures. Finishphasebegan~06:07, no newresearchafterthat; under39minplan/hard45. No thread exhaustedallowance; new-source-saturationonthiscomparison reached cashcaptureversuspriceedge distinction. Gaps: independentcustomerleadtime/paidacceptance, WCCvaluationfullbridge, historicalpointintimeuniverse, nonbullregime and15minexecution. RenewedASPI118/FRO119at08UTC; existing5jobspreserved.

Premises1. WCC/HUBB 1174validuniqueorderedOHLC each; 24customvectorbt runsmanualfee/slippagecashcompoundingmatched to<1e-7percentagepoints. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Alladjustedprices are historicalresearchseries, not promisedrawcashdividend/15minfills. 2. Daily barrierhits omitspread, delayedstoprouting, orderpriority and overnightgaps; HUBB one ambiguoussamebar cannotbe assignedtargetfirst. 3. Neitherstockcurrententry qualifies andeachwhole shareexceeds212.7475cap; no need forlimitpricing anineligibletrade. 4. Job11605:45actualoutput includesall15panels+END; CENTCOMHTTPerror manuallyreviewed via https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4593050/us-destroys-5-irgc-tankers-after-iran-targets-another-american-warship/ andBombardierchallengestillgap. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .5. ASPIlanding/PR119 do notverifyacceptedhelium; https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/capital-markets-day . Due114/115completed118/119successorsaccepted08UTC. No new electricalcollector because no validatedsignal; existingjobs12/18/36/73/116preserved. StrongcounterargumentaboutpositiveHUBBpointestimatefailsuncertainty/currententry, not proofpricewillfall. CLI501barseries isdifferentIEX/sameclose strategyandisnotindependentreplication.

CompletedSep8daily BTC/ETH/SOL RSI2=16.5270/40.9920/36.2477; allaboveentry10whileprice>SMA100. HourlyRSI48=45.5215/50.3215/48.7828 allaboveentry40. No signal at frozencompletedcutoff. 2026dailytrendfraction26.2948/25.0996/15.5378%;oversolddays38/30/36,butjointdays6/1/1; overlappingconsecutivedays reducecompletedtrades to3/1/1. Hourlyjointbars48/24/29reduce to4/5/3trades. Controls withouttrend: BTC/ETH/SOLdailyOOSreturns-12.5166/-16.5445/+14.1017% (ETHexactinobservations), hourly-28.2809/-31.9717/-11.1073%. SOLdailycontrolN20,p60%,win4.6303/loss4.8516%,mean.8375%,CI[-1.7811,3.3112]%;15bpslipreturn9.6277%,yetfailsN/CIandhourly. No retrofit tocontrolwinner. Trendagreement isnotindependent evidence ofedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observations17457–17544,17595–17600.

Premises:1 FitOLS2025 only on121 nonoverlapping3day nextopen netreturns permajor: intercept, priorclose SMA100trend,RSI2<10,interaction,20dayvol. 2 Holdout83 disjoint3dayintervals2026: MSE relativezero BTC.98188,ETH.99606,SOL.95755; predictionsmean-.7529/-1.2662/-.6976% versusactual-.5905/-.5998/-.5918%. 3 Trainjointcells6/7/5,holdout2/0/0. Positive interactioncoefficients1.3783/2.7093/2.3312pctpoints cannotvalidate a tradingcell essentiallyabsentfromtest. Conclusion regression describes mainlynegative unconditionalnetdrift, notusablejointsignal. No statisticalsignificanceclaim; different3daygrid alignment could alterresults, fullrank5 doesn'tfixsmallcellcounts. Reusedcalendar andregime dependence remain. Strongcounterargument modelmaybeatzerobyforecastingcosts/negativebase drift; thatdoesnot provide long-onlyentryedge. Allfigures andcoefficients recordedin observations; filesresearch/regression.py/json. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols WCC,HUBB --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 4.5 . {"symbol":"HUBB","bars":501,"returnPct":-10.145466768734279,"buyAndHoldPct":22.815309665579676,"maxDrawdownPct":19.79928237068317,"winRate":34.21052631578947,"avgTradePct":-0.259323123205802,"sample":38}. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLI sameclose/IEX differing exits and no explicitly modeledcosts; not validation of nextopen5sessionSIP costedholdout. Recorddiagnostic separately; qualification remains rejected.

Required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols WCC,HUBB --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 4.5 . {"symbol":"WCC","bars":501,"returnPct":-17.518801021683185,"buyAndHoldPct":135.55177824267784,"maxDrawdownPct":21.152091605518407,"winRate":31.818181818181817,"avgTradePct":-0.4154947736679606,"sample":44}. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLI sameclose/IEX differing exits and no explicitly modeledcosts; not validation of nextopen5sessionSIP costedholdout. Recorddiagnostic separately; qualification remains rejected.

Frozen note1384 beforefetching. Daily ewm(Wilder alpha)RSI2<10,close>SMA100; hourlydiagnostic RSI48<40,close>SMA2400 isdistinctsampling,notexactdailyreplication. Nextopenentry,exit nextopen after RSI>60daily/>50hourly or3days/72h; forcedlastopen liquidation. WarmupSep2024;train2025;OOSJan1–Sep8 2026 heldoutforthisrule, but reusedcalendarbypriorresearch isnotpristineindependentconfirmation. Fees entry.0025/.9975,exit.0025 exactlyreproducecreditedasset25bp/leg;slippage5bp/legand15bpstress assumptions,nothistoricaldepth. Isolated100cash fullyinvested portfolio. CashPnL/(entrynotional+entryfee); all144compoundedpayoffs reconcile1e-7pctpoint. Baseline {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","period":"oos","threshold":40,"trend_filter":true,"slip_bp":5,"return_pct":2.0571309885728795,"drawdown_pct":5.428983945916399,"n":3,"win_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":2.928592480689437,"avg_loss_pct":3.6656875267508515,"expectancy_pct":0.7304991448760073,"ci_low_pct":-3.6656875267508515,"ci_high_pct":3.415400829960636,"quarter_kelly":0.062359234828059454,"held_missing":0}. Training return -23.49450244882479%,N10,expectancy-2.566572205239217%,heldmissing6. StressOOSreturn1.446620903042998%. Quality {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","rows":17705,"expected":17712,"missing":7,"duplicates":0,"first":"2024-09-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-08 23:00:00+00:00"}. No baselineOOSinvestedgaps; forwardfillformarking/indicators may distort regime. SOLhourlytrainheld6missingintervals. Bootstrap5000IIDtrades;N1boundsdegenerate,notpopulationuncertainty. AllbaselineN<30;allpositivebaselineCIs includezero. No15minstopvalidation. Parametercontrolsare diagnostics,no winningvariantselected. Full144rows observations17457–17544. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Frozen note1384 beforefetching. Daily ewm(Wilder alpha)RSI2<10,close>SMA100; hourlydiagnostic RSI48<40,close>SMA2400 isdistinctsampling,notexactdailyreplication. Nextopenentry,exit nextopen after RSI>60daily/>50hourly or3days/72h; forcedlastopen liquidation. WarmupSep2024;train2025;OOSJan1–Sep8 2026 heldoutforthisrule, but reusedcalendarbypriorresearch isnotpristineindependentconfirmation. Fees entry.0025/.9975,exit.0025 exactlyreproducecreditedasset25bp/leg;slippage5bp/legand15bpstress assumptions,nothistoricaldepth. Isolated100cash fullyinvested portfolio. CashPnL/(entrynotional+entryfee); all144compoundedpayoffs reconcile1e-7pctpoint. Baseline {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","period":"oos","threshold":10,"trend_filter":true,"slip_bp":5,"return_pct":-3.445115910082066,"drawdown_pct":3.445115910082064,"n":1,"win_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":3.4451159100820625,"expectancy_pct":-3.4451159100820625,"ci_low_pct":-3.4451159100820625,"ci_high_pct":-3.4451159100820625,"quarter_kelly":0,"held_missing":0}. Training return -18.19790734435226%,N7,expectancy-2.5331341375826337%,heldmissing0. StressOOSreturn-3.638032905953807%. Quality {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","rows":738,"expected":738,"missing":0,"duplicates":0,"first":"2024-09-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:00"}. No baselineOOSinvestedgaps; forwardfillformarking/indicators may distort regime. SOLhourlytrainheld6missingintervals. Bootstrap5000IIDtrades;N1boundsdegenerate,notpopulationuncertainty. AllbaselineN<30;allpositivebaselineCIs includezero. No15minstopvalidation. Parametercontrolsare diagnostics,no winningvariantselected. Full144rows observations17457–17544. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Frozen note1384 beforefetching. Daily ewm(Wilder alpha)RSI2<10,close>SMA100; hourlydiagnostic RSI48<40,close>SMA2400 isdistinctsampling,notexactdailyreplication. Nextopenentry,exit nextopen after RSI>60daily/>50hourly or3days/72h; forcedlastopen liquidation. WarmupSep2024;train2025;OOSJan1–Sep8 2026 heldoutforthisrule, but reusedcalendarbypriorresearch isnotpristineindependentconfirmation. Fees entry.0025/.9975,exit.0025 exactlyreproducecreditedasset25bp/leg;slippage5bp/legand15bpstress assumptions,nothistoricaldepth. Isolated100cash fullyinvested portfolio. CashPnL/(entrynotional+entryfee); all144compoundedpayoffs reconcile1e-7pctpoint. Baseline {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","period":"oos","threshold":40,"trend_filter":true,"slip_bp":5,"return_pct":4.486466148934809,"drawdown_pct":5.6645663087276255,"n":5,"win_pct":80,"avg_win_pct":1.895584030087242,"avg_loss_pct":3.0733323098522227,"expectancy_pct":0.9018007620993487,"ci_low_pct":-1.1393301515380472,"ci_high_pct":2.06476940466497,"quarter_kelly":0.11893442176470606,"held_missing":0}. Training return -17.012156281254462%,N9,expectancy-1.960743423358159%,heldmissing0. StressOOSreturn3.446807319115635%. Quality {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","rows":17710,"expected":17712,"missing":2,"duplicates":0,"first":"2024-09-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-08 23:00:00+00:00"}. No baselineOOSinvestedgaps; forwardfillformarking/indicators may distort regime. SOLhourlytrainheld6missingintervals. Bootstrap5000IIDtrades;N1boundsdegenerate,notpopulationuncertainty. AllbaselineN<30;allpositivebaselineCIs includezero. No15minstopvalidation. Parametercontrolsare diagnostics,no winningvariantselected. Full144rows observations17457–17544. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Frozen note1384 beforefetching. Daily ewm(Wilder alpha)RSI2<10,close>SMA100; hourlydiagnostic RSI48<40,close>SMA2400 isdistinctsampling,notexactdailyreplication. Nextopenentry,exit nextopen after RSI>60daily/>50hourly or3days/72h; forcedlastopen liquidation. WarmupSep2024;train2025;OOSJan1–Sep8 2026 heldoutforthisrule, but reusedcalendarbypriorresearch isnotpristineindependentconfirmation. Fees entry.0025/.9975,exit.0025 exactlyreproducecreditedasset25bp/leg;slippage5bp/legand15bpstress assumptions,nothistoricaldepth. Isolated100cash fullyinvested portfolio. CashPnL/(entrynotional+entryfee); all144compoundedpayoffs reconcile1e-7pctpoint. Baseline {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","period":"oos","threshold":10,"trend_filter":true,"slip_bp":5,"return_pct":-3.758260817716291,"drawdown_pct":3.7582608177162857,"n":1,"win_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":3.7582608177162897,"expectancy_pct":-3.7582608177162897,"ci_low_pct":-3.7582608177162897,"ci_high_pct":-3.7582608177162897,"quarter_kelly":0,"held_missing":0}. Training return 4.145470490534578%,N7,expectancy0.7257945925852591%,heldmissing0. StressOOSreturn-3.9505521489681144%. Quality {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","rows":738,"expected":738,"missing":0,"duplicates":0,"first":"2024-09-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:00"}. No baselineOOSinvestedgaps; forwardfillformarking/indicators may distort regime. SOLhourlytrainheld6missingintervals. Bootstrap5000IIDtrades;N1boundsdegenerate,notpopulationuncertainty. AllbaselineN<30;allpositivebaselineCIs includezero. No15minstopvalidation. Parametercontrolsare diagnostics,no winningvariantselected. Full144rows observations17457–17544. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Frozen note1384 beforefetching. Daily ewm(Wilder alpha)RSI2<10,close>SMA100; hourlydiagnostic RSI48<40,close>SMA2400 isdistinctsampling,notexactdailyreplication. Nextopenentry,exit nextopen after RSI>60daily/>50hourly or3days/72h; forcedlastopen liquidation. WarmupSep2024;train2025;OOSJan1–Sep8 2026 heldoutforthisrule, but reusedcalendarbypriorresearch isnotpristineindependentconfirmation. Fees entry.0025/.9975,exit.0025 exactlyreproducecreditedasset25bp/leg;slippage5bp/legand15bpstress assumptions,nothistoricaldepth. Isolated100cash fullyinvested portfolio. CashPnL/(entrynotional+entryfee); all144compoundedpayoffs reconcile1e-7pctpoint. Baseline {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","period":"oos","threshold":40,"trend_filter":true,"slip_bp":5,"return_pct":0.6270298370110368,"drawdown_pct":3.6590873048930606,"n":4,"win_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":1.889439687398009,"avg_loss_pct":1.5465683221991386,"expectancy_pct":0.17143568259943512,"ci_low_pct":-1.5465683221991386,"ci_high_pct":1.889439687398009,"quarter_kelly":0.02268340235240894,"held_missing":0}. Training return 2.786101604035153%,N14,expectancy0.206323737432632%,heldmissing0. StressOOSreturn-0.1747757715770888%. Quality {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","rows":17710,"expected":17712,"missing":2,"duplicates":0,"first":"2024-09-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-08 23:00:00+00:00"}. No baselineOOSinvestedgaps; forwardfillformarking/indicators may distort regime. SOLhourlytrainheld6missingintervals. Bootstrap5000IIDtrades;N1boundsdegenerate,notpopulationuncertainty. AllbaselineN<30;allpositivebaselineCIs includezero. No15minstopvalidation. Parametercontrolsare diagnostics,no winningvariantselected. Full144rows observations17457–17544. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Frozen note1384 beforefetching. Daily ewm(Wilder alpha)RSI2<10,close>SMA100; hourlydiagnostic RSI48<40,close>SMA2400 isdistinctsampling,notexactdailyreplication. Nextopenentry,exit nextopen after RSI>60daily/>50hourly or3days/72h; forcedlastopen liquidation. WarmupSep2024;train2025;OOSJan1–Sep8 2026 heldoutforthisrule, but reusedcalendarbypriorresearch isnotpristineindependentconfirmation. Fees entry.0025/.9975,exit.0025 exactlyreproducecreditedasset25bp/leg;slippage5bp/legand15bpstress assumptions,nothistoricaldepth. Isolated100cash fullyinvested portfolio. CashPnL/(entrynotional+entryfee); all144compoundedpayoffs reconcile1e-7pctpoint. Baseline {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","period":"oos","threshold":10,"trend_filter":true,"slip_bp":5,"return_pct":0.18177174799714635,"drawdown_pct":1.8565435856762624,"n":3,"win_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":0.7451625511902433,"avg_loss_pct":1.290625790259734,"expectancy_pct":0.06656643737358425,"ci_low_pct":-1.290625790259734,"ci_high_pct":1.3954415537106202,"quarter_kelly":0.02233285786680303,"held_missing":0}. Training return 2.3869241956420666%,N7,expectancy0.36453314982556506%,heldmissing0. StressOOSreturn-0.4175198590269105%. Quality {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","rows":738,"expected":738,"missing":0,"duplicates":0,"first":"2024-09-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:00"}. No baselineOOSinvestedgaps; forwardfillformarking/indicators may distort regime. SOLhourlytrainheld6missingintervals. Bootstrap5000IIDtrades;N1boundsdegenerate,notpopulationuncertainty. AllbaselineN<30;allpositivebaselineCIs includezero. No15minstopvalidation. Parametercontrolsare diagnostics,no winningvariantselected. Full144rows observations17457–17544. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

CompletedSep8dailySIP, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=WCC,HUBB,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. WCC {"close":360.17,"date":"2026-09-08 04:00:00+00:00","SMA50":341.4328,"prior20":372.96,"ADR20":10.872555000000006,"RV20_pct":42.94572982683698,"signal":false}; HUBB {"close":464.75,"date":"2026-09-08 04:00:00+00:00","SMA50":482.70419999999996,"prior20":518.01,"ADR20":11.209624999999994,"RV20_pct":27.161095596834254,"signal":false}. WCCaboveSMA50butbelow20high; HUBBbelowboth: no eligible signal. Descriptive noSMAablation returns1.9044/7.3594% versus baseline3.11/10.12%; improvedpointestimate is not independentproof filterworks. Allholdoutentries SPYabove200 leavesbearregimeunknown. Whole shares360.17/464.75 each exceed212.7475positioncap and278.67fundallocation; fractionalonly cannotvalidateovernightexits. RawKelly amounts27.329/96.141 are not orders; approved0. Hypotheticalrangelevels {"stop_1ADR":349.29744500000004,"target_1p5ADR":376.4788325,"quarter_kelly_raw_usd":27.32908507988432,"approved_usd":0} {"stop_1ADR":453.540375,"target_1p5ADR":481.5644375,"quarter_kelly_raw_usd":96.14065929218634,"approved_usd":0} explicitly NOT validstop/target proposals. Currentprice not executablequote.

Premise1 observedN9tradecashreturns conditional onselected2026rule; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=WCC,HUBB,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Premise2 simulations do notcreateobservations.20000 paths20trades, iid replacement at5/10/25%account exposure, seed2026090906 afterCI draws; outputs {"0.05":{"loss_probability_pct":0.49500000000000005,"median_return_pct":1.088571827057161,"p95_drawdown_pct":0.2614209651700006},"0.1":{"loss_probability_pct":0.49500000000000005,"median_return_pct":2.194427266467913,"p95_drawdown_pct":0.5223744871278302},"0.25":{"loss_probability_pct":0.515,"median_return_pct":5.534290529286001,"p95_drawdown_pct":1.3098767148892225}}. Nestedbootstrap seed2026090907 firstresamplesN9empiricaldistribution perpath then20trades; 10% exposure {"loss_probability_pct":7.580000000000001,"p95_drawdown_pct":0.759148051643022}. This includes someparameteruncertainty but stillmissestails/serialdependence, not actualfutureprobability. RawquarterKelly 0.11297507525609742, indicativeUSD 96.14065929218634, APPROVED0 becauseCI/training/entry/venuegatesfail. Dailybarrier diagnostic 1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget within5sessions: {"target_first":2,"stop_first":1,"ambiguous":1,"neither":5}. Ifbothsamebar assignambiguous, not assumedwin. Counts give touchbounds nottradableexitpayoffs; gaps, bidaskand15minchecks unmodeled. MFEpct [2.8437148055098227,3.404353382356029,4.1147718673947065,5.955384676999476,1.5037738385603516,4.434789266163919,3.407292931522976,6.694577273358604,3.4240719015330656]. No stop/target order inferred from average range.

1. Chronological2026holdout N9 from prereg1385; mean95%bootstrapCI [-0.15619409475090745,2.4420381181021766]% crosseszero.2. EveryentryaboveSPY200, belowregimeN0.3. Daily2026 OLS {"sample":171,"daily_alpha_pct":-0.028969605559672994,"market_beta":1.1197039983882822,"r_squared":0.19447913987568277}; correlations {"WCC":0.5153584779443469,"HUBB":1,"SPY":0.44099789101047054}. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=WCC,HUBB,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. OLSintercept not abnormalstrategyreturn; heteroskedasticity/unmodeledfactors mean no inference from coefficient alone. Stocks selected for currentbusiness relevance, survivors omittedothers; tradingwindows cluster and issuernews not historicaleventlabels. iid bootstrap understates dependence and missesunobservedtails. Frozen training20/5 negative; 17of18trainingvariants negative across bothstocks, solepositive HUBB20/10 not selected. Positiveholdoutpointestimate cannot repair training instability. Requireprospectivelyfrozenindependent events andcostedpayoffs withpositive lowerCI, not retuning historical windows.