Reuse1791/1682 without refit: NumPy seed2026090908 50000 bootstrap ten-event paths from selected time-only sample, hypothetical25% of49.14, mean51.17792,p05/50/95=47.38995/50.79397/56.33595,loss25.418%. Premise1 actual required-exit stress holdout loses. Premise2 no new independent sample changed distributions. Conclusion do not treat optimistic selected time-only bootstrap as executable sizing or22-day runway forecast; operational cash49.14 before external costs. Countercase independent costed event sample could justify a new simulation; presently unknown. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and journal1791. No rerun claimed.
paths_reused50000
loss_probability_pct25.42
hypothetical_mean51.18
allocation0
Exit attack: deadline and stop are not a gap bound
Premise1 RARE ledger actual loss6.440348 times entry-to-listed-stop distance, Python18633. Premise2 LOVE frozen completed Sep9 paper entry15.87/timeexit16.159 and25 checkpoints nohit from1787 are not fresh quotes; call08:30ETSep10 is later than unspecified before-open first news. Premise3 TLX confirmedSep11 goal date has no guaranteed first-news timestamp. Conclusion no overnight position, no stop/target fabricated for flat book. Strong countercase whole-share lots improve session availability but15min monitoring still cannot cap gaps. No fresh indicator or target calibration claimed; rejected exits and snapshot timestamp convention preserved. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
RARE_loss_R6.44
LOVE_frozen_entry15.87
LOVE_frozen_exit16.16
open_positions0
Midnight payoff audit: no positive sizing estimate
Numbered premises:1 queried ledger and NumPy calculation18633 show three losses, mean-16.380601%, no average winner, two operator liquidations; not an unbiased strategy sample.2 reused AVO1270/1158 chronological costed holdoutN6 p.5,W1.318443%,L3.743633%,expectancy-1.212595%,return-7.331815%,DD9.371961%; quarterKelly recomputed max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0.3 frozen LOVE1789 N10 stress-2.341352% and CHWY N6-1.719988% remain separate from LOVE prospectiveN1+1.211948%. Conclusion size0. Valid under required edge gate; soundness limited small selected samples, censoring and historical execution proxies. Counterexample: future independent sample may validate a different rule, but cannot rescue current p/W/L. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new historical backtest or fit claimed.
sample3
win rate0
mean_return-16.38
AVO_holdout_N6
AVO_p0.5
AVO_W1.32
AVO_L3.74
AVO_expectancy-1.21
quarter_Kelly0
Midnight cash attack: recast is not liquidity; harvest hurdle remains
Numbered premises:1 Sep9GME10Q reports4709BTC contractualreceivable underCoinbaseCreditcollateralrights; nofirsthalfBTCpurchase/sale.2 Aug1callsreference2000BTCK70000throughSep25, currentoptionpositionandsettlementmethodunknown.3 No observeddealerhedge orders. First order collateral permits reuse; calls exchange some upside for premium. Second order Coinbase/optioncounterparty may hedge, net againstotherclients, or alreadyholdinventory; spotbuying/selling sign cannot be identified from liabilityalone. Third order settlement/rolling canredistributecoinrisk withoutnewglobaldemand andexpectedhedges mayalreadybepriced. Beneficiaries issuerpremiumincome andintermediaryfees; costsissuerupsidecap/counterpartyrisk. Strongestbearcase hedge/unwindcreates sales; strongestbullcase hedgeacquisition/newconfidencecreates buying. Both behavioralassumptions beginathedging, notfilingfacts. Notional2000*70000=140m isstrikeaggregate, notnewflowor guaranteedcashreceipt. Conclusionnoentryedge,noorder. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000055/gme-20260801.htm
call BTC2000
strike aggregate USD140000000
verified new entry samples0
allocation0
21UTC new GME 10Q resolves historical BTC flow; current hedge flow unknown
P1 First activity must survive controlled prespecified durability/safety replication. Second approval, coverage, funding and manufacturing must support economic delivery. Third cash net dilution must exceed expectations already in price. Sponsors/financiers may benefit before current shareholders. Alternative: rebound attracts late buyers -> after-hours liquidity deteriorates -> 15minute exits realize gap losses; staleIEXspread is observed, causalchain conditional. Counterargument persistentdriftpossible; absenceofindependentcostedclinicalstockholdout leavesallocation0. Sources observation18612–16 https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
P1 NumPyseed9091230,20000IIDpaths20draws from actual3returns at187.22USD reproduces prior1772 PnL2.5/50/97.5[-93.669315,-30.013809,79.173517],loss81.26%. P2 Operator-censoredN3 and unsupported stationarity mean this is a sensitivity illustration, not forecast, independent evidence or15minute stop-exit odds. P3 Frozenholdout mean-.094356461% implies-.176654USD per fullfund deployment, excludes fixed costs. Conclusion actual proposednotional0; freshsimulation cannot manufactureedge. Source observation18615/query_trades fund=quant and original1642 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
paths20000
draws20
median illustrative PnL-30.01
illustrative loss pct81.26
notional USD0
QTR9092100 unchanged clinical files preserve endpoint and financing gaps
P1 All3 direct PDFs21:02–03 same SHA as19:43, and bounded issuer release links unchanged. Interested sponsors closest to evidence; file identity is not proof no other news. P2 Prior reviewed TYRA8/14primaryCR versus8/8subgroupORR and modeledHRs, IRDnonprespecified highlighted loci versus prospective prespecified pivotal, INBX efficacy/safetydenominators still prevent clinical-to-value calibration. These are inherited reviewed qualifications, not new full reread. P3 Controlled durability, regulatory/payer success, manufacturing and shareholder cash after financing remain uncalibrated; no approval probability/DCF invented. Counterexample genuine clinical activity can create value, but unchanged deck does not measure mispricing. Sources observation18616 https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ .
unchanged PDFs3
allocation USD0
Refund ownership and acquisition financing determine cash recipients
P1 Explicit t<20UTC filter yields19:59TYRA22.015/IRD5.72/INBX112.61, regularcounts383/390/294, absent7/0/96 not filled. API endpoint20UTC included20:00bar so endpoint name is not sufficient. P2 Provider daily22.01/5.73/112.86 differs-.022712/+.174825/+.222005%; daily opens18.94/5.31/117.38 differ minute18.66/5.30/117.38. Aggregate eligibility/auction identification unresolved; not proof of error or executable auction. P3 TYRA+17.9796%open yet-17.6394%prior,IRD+31.7972%prior yet-19.0948%high,INBX-4.0637%open/-12.3930%high. P4 IEXquotes timestamp20:00 staleat21:03, spreads3336/2943bps andINBXask0: no current fills. Conclusion no overnight entry without tested net edge and executable quotes. Counterargument rebounds may persist, but not estimated. Sources observation18612–14 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/stock-snapshots.
TYRA open pct17.98
TYRA prior pct-17.64
IRD high retreat pct-19.09
INBX missing minutes96
allocation USD0
Preserve frozen simulation; one new paper outcome does not identify path odds
P1 Original backtest1642 reread, not rerun: 2021–25 holdout252 after2016–20train, cashmean-.094356461%,p45.634920635%,W.490801991%,L.585547862%,return-21.631824%,DD25.206217%;stress-52.657075%. P2 Own three operator-liquidated trades recomputed p1/3,W7.939941%,L5.261432%,mean-.860974%; intended4–6week horizons censored, quote benchmarks absent so slippage/stop-hit odds unidentified. P3 max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0 for both. Counterexample2026extensionN28+2.31% exists but stress-3.26% and cannot replace holdout. Conclusion zero allocation; no clinical-response proportion transferred to stock win rate. Observation18615; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and query_trades fund=quant.
Reuse1677/1777; no fit. LOVEcoststressN10p.2,W10.702374%,L2.753813%,compound-2.341352%,DD12.985803%,mean-.0625755%,95%meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%,quarterKelly0. CHWY N6p.5 W4.523391%L4.828695%,compound-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,negativeKellyclipped0. PremiseN1prospectiveLOVE+1.211948%stress is insufficient independent evidence; no pooledrecalibration. Own3closed0wins includes2operatorliquidations and hasundefinedaveragewinner. Conclusion no quantifiedpositiveexecutableedge,allocation0. Counterexample largerpredeclaredcostedindependentholdout could support risk; smallselectedsamplesdo notproveuniversalnegativeedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst; existing recordedCLI1688andvectorbt1677 remainrejected, no retest needed forstanddown.
LOVE_N10
LOVE_p0.2
LOVE_W10.7
LOVE_L2.75
LOVE_return-2.34
LOVE_DD12.99
CHWY_N6
CHWY_return-1.72
quarterKelly0
allocation0
New ASO and KFY filings resolve cash gaps, not entry edge
Premises1 verifiedSupplyledgeronly2closedoperatorliquidation trades,noopen/pending/closing https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .2 Fundamental1783/consequences1785 no verified incremental accepted cash, using https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf and https://www.frontlineplc.cy/category/press-releases/ ; gaps explicit.3 Statistical1784 frozen41sampleCIcross0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .Conclusion no entry,exit,adjustment,newfund. Validity follows uncertainty gate; soundness constrained by sample/regime and disclosure coverage. Counterexample strong future cash could upgrade fundamentals but must pass independent executableedge. Hardlimits equity850.99,position212.7475,fund278.67,risk8.5099; approved0. No fresh quote required for rejected rule,no newbacktest or refit. Resolved146; successor150 accepted00UTC. Fiveactivejobs;116next21:46UTC7runs covers untilresearch; preserve50/11/133. Report finished early within25min allowance/hard45, recordingphase used after about2.5min of research. No thread overrun.
equity850.99
fund_cash278.67
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
approved_usd0
new_orders0
next_monitor150
active_jobs5
After-close bottleneck chain still needs net receipts
Premises1 constrained flows in EIA https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf ;2 issuer evidence in https://www.frontlineplc.cy/category/press-releases/ and https://ir.solaris-energy.com/news/2026/09-08-2026-114509510 does not newly establish net accepted cash. First order fewer barrels and higher product prices hurt users while exporters may gain. Second order delivered longer voyages may benefit owners only after fuel/insurance/offhire; equipment suppliers gain only after acceptance and financing costs. Third order bypass routes, capacity additions and substitution can erode rents. Conditional mechanisms, not measured stock returns. Strongest alternative: persistent shortage produces large cash profits before filings show it; still no calibrated entry payoff. StartSupply278.67cash,goalrepeatable net gains,binding constraint independently validated edge rather than capital. Allcash retained.
chain_orders3
fund_cash278.67
approved_usd0
After-close frozen edge audit: no additional independent sample
StatisticalrejectSupply chainFRO2026-09-09 21:04
Numbered premises:1 Saved costed backtest456/analysis1764 N41 wins17 avgwin5.46270406% avgloss2.96357664% from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2 Python recomputation mean .530247064878%, raw quarterKelly .024266693704; saved meanCI[-.874362,1.958541]% crosses0.3 Supply ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev has two operator-liquidation winners and no observed loser; cannot estimate own average loss or comparable stop/target execution edge. Conclusion approved size0. Valid under existing uncertainty gate; positive point mean is counterargument, not independent proof. Selection/regime and small-sample risk limit soundness. Repeated reads are not41 more observations. Preserve prior technical1702/indicators1631/simulation1630/backtest456; no new fit, backtest, quote or MonteCarlo in trading run. Existing costed holdout remains basis for rejection; no need to refit after unchanged issuer source.
sample41
win rate41.46
return20.24
drawdown24.42
avg_win_pct5.46
avg_loss_pct2.96
expectancy_pct0.53
ci_low_pct-0.87
ci_high_pct1.96
raw_quarter_kelly0.02
approved_usd0
After-close cash transmission unchanged; EIA periods distinguished, basis unresolved
Premises:1 EIA Sep9 model frozeSep3; annual crack figures and Aug–Nov narrative are different periods https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf .2 Table2 wholesale diesel minus Brent/42 proxy exceeds2 in Q3/Q4 but annual1.5731/1.2443 differs from .94/.63 https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/2tab.pdf .Definition/basis unresolved; excluded from valuation.3 FRO archive latestAug28 https://www.frontlineplc.cy/category/press-releases/ ; SEI Sep8 core plus acquisitions https://ir.solaris-energy.com/news/2026/09-08-2026-114509510 ; OESX Sep8 second order has no quantified paid margin https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-announces-additional-multimillion-dollar-data-center .Conclusion no verified incremental issuer cash sufficient to change prior trading gate. Valid: physical imbalance does not imply stock profit. Soundness limited: agency model estimates, issuer promotional disclosures, no customer payment census. Counterexamples: insurance/cargo loss defeats tanker rents; acquired earnings defeat organic attribution; undisclosed profitable deliveries could improve fundamentals. Prior uncertain-positive scarcity hypothesis remains unquantified; delivered netcash would upgrade watch but still need independent return edge. ASPI fullQ&A,ACPpdf403,CENTCOM andBombardier challenge remain coverage gaps, not no-news findings.