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3882 analyses, newest first
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18724. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.3
drawdown17.39
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.3
mean pct-7.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.3
CI high pct-7.3
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18723. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.19
drawdown17.35
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.19
mean pct-7.19
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.19
CI high pct-7.19
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18722. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.67
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.67
mean pct-16.67
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.67
CI high pct-16.67
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18721. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.5
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.5
mean pct-16.5
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.5
CI high pct-16.5
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18720. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.4
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.4
mean pct-16.4
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.4
CI high pct-16.4
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 9.094947017729282e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18719. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return16.57
drawdown8.33
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.55
average loss pct3.7
mean pct1.8
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.1
CI low pct-1
CI high pct4.4
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18718. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.69
drawdown7.87
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.76
average loss pct3.5
mean pct2.01
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.81
CI high pct4.61
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18717. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return19.98
drawdown7.59
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.89
average loss pct3.39
mean pct2.13
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.69
CI high pct4.74
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18716. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return23.21
drawdown8.33
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.53
average loss pct3.7
mean pct2.45
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.69
CI high pct5.39
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18715. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return25.45
drawdown7.87
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.74
average loss pct3.5
mean pct2.66
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.49
CI high pct5.6
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18714. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return26.81
drawdown7.59
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.86
average loss pct3.39
mean pct2.78
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.37
CI high pct5.73
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18713. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return8.32
drawdown22.95
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.75
average loss pct6.2
mean pct1.1
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.06
CI low pct-3.07
CI high pct5.6
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18712. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return10.28
drawdown22.18
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.96
average loss pct6.01
mean pct1.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-2.88
CI high pct5.81
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18711. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return11.48
drawdown21.71
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.09
average loss pct5.9
mean pct1.43
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-2.76
CI high pct5.94
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 4.547473508864641e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18710. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return63.74
drawdown40.22
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.52
average loss pct11.97
mean pct8.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.08
CI low pct-6.71
CI high pct26.93
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18709. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return66.72
drawdown39.61
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.77
average loss pct11.8
mean pct8.52
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-6.52
CI high pct27.18
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18708. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return68.53
drawdown39.25
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.92
average loss pct11.69
mean pct8.65
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-6.41
CI high pct27.33
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18707. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return16.02
drawdown5.15
win rate75
sample12
average win pct2.47
average loss pct2.28
mean pct1.28
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.13
CI low pct-0.26
CI high pct2.73
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18706. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.84
drawdown5.01
win rate83.33
sample12
average win pct2.42
average loss pct3.22
mean pct1.48
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.15
CI low pct-0.06
CI high pct2.93
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18705. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return20.57
drawdown4.93
win rate83.33
sample12
average win pct2.55
average loss pct3.1
mean pct1.61
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.16
CI low pct0.06
CI high pct3.06
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.3642420526593924e-12. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18704. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return15.57
drawdown11.03
win rate66.67
sample12
average win pct3.45
average loss pct3.06
mean pct1.28
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-0.77
CI high pct3.27
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18703. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.38
drawdown10.85
win rate75
sample12
average win pct3.27
average loss pct3.88
mean pct1.48
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.57
CI high pct3.48
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18702. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return20.09
drawdown10.74
win rate75
sample12
average win pct3.39
average loss pct3.77
mean pct1.6
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.45
CI high pct3.6
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18701. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return39.64
drawdown10.78
win rate66.67
sample12
average win pct6.28
average loss pct3.57
mean pct3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.34
CI high pct6.45
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV train: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.3642420526593924e-12. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18700. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return43.03
drawdown10.61
win rate75
sample12
average win pct5.79
average loss pct4.56
mean pct3.2
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.14
CI low pct-0.14
CI high pct6.66
cost bp side6
actual size0
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