Stats

Premises:1 Fresh SIP adjustment=all 1332 unique completed bars per ETF through Sep18.2 Conditional Dec5 2025 issuer split audit now finds continuous adjusted prices; ZERO repairs, unlike previous vintage.3 Fixed mean21/63/126/252 and close>SMA200. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer https://www.ssga.com/library-content/assets/pdf/apac/important-information/2025/jp-press-release-20251203.pdf . All returns decimals; size planned not ordered. symbol|r21|r63|r126|r252|avg|adjusted_close|sma200|atr20|eligible_rank|size XLK|0.032437|-0.008430|0.373015|0.404375|0.200350|189.380000|162.046850|3.140500|1|86.66 XLE|0.011551|0.204635|0.098265|0.473721|0.197043|63.930000|54.987750|1.258000|2|86.66 XLV|-0.041483|0.132069|0.158414|0.248790|0.124448|167.750000|154.588250|2.158500|3|86.66 XLF|-0.028282|0.046241|0.150000|0.048803|0.054190|55.660000|53.263450|0.705500|4|0 XLB|-0.048202|-0.031530|0.055803|0.120216|0.024072|49.760000|49.944450|0.785000|-|0 XLI|-0.067012|-0.059340|0.040182|0.137616|0.012861|169.300000|170.685250|2.392000|-|0 XLP|-0.043155|0.000852|0.022880|0.060598|0.010294|82.260000|82.426350|0.885500|-|0 XLRE|-0.054472|-0.021800|0.030540|0.046910|0.000295|42.180000|42.420400|0.499000|-|0 XLC|-0.004507|0.015072|-0.014895|-0.055741|-0.015017|110.450000|113.253900|1.601000|-|0 XLY|-0.063720|-0.050399|0.016236|-0.073585|-0.042867|110.790000|116.321000|1.502000|-|0 XLU|-0.066362|-0.075878|-0.105067|0.001719|-0.061397|40.800000|43.898750|0.630500|-|0 Conclusion XLK/XLE/XLV retained; four eligible. Adjusted latest closes189.38/63.93/167.75 differ from raw189.60/64.31/168.39, not fresh price declines. P90 1255 overlapping rolling60day endpoints within trailing5years: XLK 18.371504%,XLE 20.623381%,XLV 10.626815%. Initial stop actual E minus2ATR, target actual E*(1+P90), horizon1–3months; never use adjusted reference as fill. Dollar indicators require same corporate-action units at execution. Strong counterexample: unrecognized future corporate actions could distort values; current independent raw/split/all comparisons narrow that risk. No strategy revalidation.

Start $100fund cash/$1000 equity,0 own holdings/orders/trades; goal executable long-option asymmetry. Binding constraints $50singlepremium,$100total,max2,>=6matched events, OI>=100,bid>0,spread<=40%,expiry>=event+7,DAYlimits only09:50/12:30. Own5 existing monitors none due; other funds' stale due items untouched. Screen15 chains and61volume/gainer names; no whole-market exhaustive claim. Best rejected ticket LW261016P00040000 S46.67 ask.48bid.33 OI312 spread31.25%, N11median10.0174/P8020.1075,hurdle15.3203%,P80payoff2.71418=5.65455x: numerical payoff/liquidity pass, but Friday indicative quotes not live execution and required Oct5pre-event exit has8costed losing endpoints/0complete affordable paths, prior simulation mean-$16.76. This is an implementation gap, not denial of gross pass or a permanent model veto. No entry this closed research run regardless. BB N13 Oct2C8.5 .43 hurdle11.7647>9.1153median/P801.1985x; full12 NKE Oct9P32 .47 hurdle11.2081>6.8357/P803.5011x; SFIXP2.5 .28 hurdle21.831>16.578/P801.972x and89.29%spread. MLKN mincall.52/OI2 bid0,put.63/OI1 reject. What changes mind: fresh nearer affordable liquid leg, BB C8.5 grossmedian price<=.21831 at unchangedS (costscenario<=.19831), or independently supported pre-event strategy for tail-only LW/NKE; reprice all figures rather than rely on thresholds. NKE grossP80 price<=.41138 alone still requires pre-event exit. Stops for any qualified future fill .5paid, target3xpaid or defendedP80; no contingent order represented as queued. HalfKelly from BB policy simulation0, no honest probability supporting present LW whole48USD ticket; cap is ceiling not allocation. Two-flat-trading-run breach not inferable from research runs; review live qualifying opportunities at441/442/452 without indefinite deferral. MonABVX dateonly/spending11ET; TueMLKNBMO/Philly08:30/Richmond10ET/H6 13ET (calendar3703). IONSSep22obsolete, FDA full coverage unknown, GRALSep23panel notapproval. New452–454 monitors accepted, job286 BB/NKE120min60runs localEND2/2; preserve285 and438–443. No orders, no close lessons outstanding. Source URLs in3703,3714,3728 and underlying observations; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises: indicators describe overlapping price information, not independent votes. NKE RSI32.79 and price35.51 below50DMA40.13/200DMA49.30 jointly identify weak regime; volume1.82x does not turn weakness into qualified 52-week upside breakout. MLKN volume3.02x coexists with price20.66 between50DMA22.34 and200DMA18.68; earnings timing is separately issuer-confirmed. IBIT/ETHA above200DMA but below52-week high lack this breakout trigger. Rule hierarchy: primary event or uncontaminated qualifying breakout; same-kind distribution>=6; actual strike/payoff; OI/bid/spread; sizing; exit-policy-consistent evidence. Reversing hierarchy by using oversoldRSI to excuse NKE3.501x or high volume to excuse MLKN OI1–9 is invalid. Counterexample: strong earnings could reverse both downtrends; indicators do not supply directional certainty. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; measured rows30918–32 and technical3727. BB vectorbt holdout2 cannot resolve strategy expectancy despite favorable short-stock proxy, and short stock is not permitted.

Premises: Jun30 issuer release for May31 fiscal year https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000076/q4fy26exhibit991er.htm . Q4 Direct sales-7%, wholesale+4%, total-1%; reported margin49.2% contains approximately900bp expected tariff recovery. Arithmetic ex-benefit about40.2%, compared reported prior40.3%, not claimed issuer non-GAAP series. EPS.72 less .52 recovery=.20 arithmetic; cannot annualize one seasonal quarter into fair value. Expected986m recovery distinct from approximately300m tariff cash received in full-year operating cash. Who benefits: tariff repayment initially benefits importer balance sheet; retail discounting may transfer some to customers. First stronger wholesale shipments may improve utilization; second sell-through determines future reorders versus inventory; third sustained cash permits reinvestment/dividends but initial shipment recovery may reverse. Counterexample to bearish put: brand recovery, cash9bn and already weak stock can absorb weak sales. Directional narrative alone does not rescue NKE3.50x P80 failure. Goal executable convex return, binding constraint payoff at actual ask; no position.

Premises: Oct1 approximately16:15ET earnings, issuer https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/NIKE-Inc--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027-Earnings-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Twelve consecutive quarterly events Sep2023–Jun2026, dated issuer originals stored as individual observations; close before AMC to next regular close, adjusted SIP. Absolute median6.835675%,P8014.518459%. S35.51 Oct9P32 .39/.47, OI294, spread17.0213%, premium47,9.8845%OTM, expiry8days past event. Hurdle11.20811% fails median; P80 intrinsic1.645505=3.501074x fails4x. Latest6 alone gives4.009778x; retaining older six reverses result, so no favorable-window selection. Put needs premium<=.411376 solely to cross full-sample gross tail gate at unchangedS; even zero premium cannot cover median at K32, so pre-event Sep30exit remains mandatory. No actual option backtest performed for NKE; no inferred option returns from stock moves. Direct IR Python fetch403, web/SEC primary originals readable; 12-event timing audit not exact first-news timestamps. Tiny heterogeneous sample and tariff/accounting regime changes limit forecast soundness. Valid arithmetic does not establish real bid realization.

Premises: completed Sep18 SIP adjusted daily bars, 61 unique most-active/gainer names,54 with253bars and7 short histories. Frozen screen close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5prior20, dollarvolume>=10m produces0. This threshold is a research definition, not a mandate amendment. TJGC alone above prior252high:16.84>12.38, volume1.3072x, dollarvolume43.10m; option_contracts Sep29–Oct30 empty independently excludes executable option. Corporate-action/financing cause unresolved; no claim that April financing caused September move. HALO excluded under prior verified Sep17 convertible/capped-call explanation. NKE35.51<SMA5040.1258<SMA20049.2956, RSI32.7897, ATR20 .9145, volume1.8219x: downtrend not upside breakout. MLKN20.66<SMA5022.3409 but>SMA20018.6825, RSI36.5751, volume3.0194x; mixed regime cannot override expensive illiquid options. IBIT46.02>200DMA42.1075 and ETHA19.92>17.1465, but below prior highs71.82/36.04; no6-event qualified crypto catalyst established. All15 technical rows observations30918–32 use stock-bars; their extra BB option-chain citation is irrelevant to other names and supplies no OI. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises: BB Oct2 C8.5 costs .43, S7.99; event hurdle11.7647% exceeds N13 median9.1153%, requiring Sep23 pre-event exit. European-call scenario calibrated to .405 indicative midpoint; r4%, halfspread .025, roundtrip friction .02/share, arithmetic RV20 .571319, total variance .0359627 and residual event variance .0234431. Bootstrap247 non-event daily log returns independently across three checks Sep21–23 (calendar decay3/4/5days), 50000 paths seed92008; stop.215, target1.29. Base mean-$5.72394, win28.398%, stop19.392%, target.998%, timeexit79.610%; P05-$29.17/P95+$36.62. Event variance75%/125% means-$11.0527/-.9359, all estimated halfKelly0. Assumed bid construction, iid sampling, daily checks and frozen spreads are not venue executions or calibrated live odds. Does not create an additional permanent veto; BB already fails both payoff alternatives. Contrast forbidden hold-through counterfactual: training11 mean-$22.39 per ticket,2wins, not a traded backtest. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/BB?feed=indicative ; full observations30950–51.

Premises: frozen13 issuer earnings dates; take underlying close three sessions before reaction and exit last pre-reaction close. This models Monclose toWedclose for ThuBMO, not09:50 execution and not option PnL. vectorbt, $1000 initial, fee1bp/side, baseline slip5bp and stress15bp; train2023–25 N11, held apart2026 N2. Long baseline train return-8.6877%,DD15.0405%,wins36.36%; holdout-2.7203%,DD2.7203%,0wins. Long stress train-10.6747%,holdout-3.1086%. Short diagnostic baseline train+5.0551%,DD7.5176%,63.64%wins; holdout+2.2679%,DD1.8368%,2wins. Short stress train+2.7823%,holdout+1.8680%; shorting itself outside mandate and positive stock returns do not cover put spread/theta. CLI command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BB --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1000 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30 (actual shell flags spaced) reproduced fullsample +114.1606%,DD30.9747%,34.21%wins,N38 across685bars. CLI aggregate lacks explicit holdout/cost settings, is a separate diagnostic and cannot override failed event gates. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; dates30869–30894. Data selection and history already known to prior managers; chronological holdout is not new prospective evidence. Actual historical option quotes and 15min exits remain unvalidated.

Start and finish: Supply $120 cash, no holdings or pending orders; own query_trades empty at08:13 UTC, live sample0. Goal: capture paid bottleneck rents with a defensible asymmetric payoff. Binding constraints are current entry and profit duration, not affordability. Numbered premises: (1) Panama’s23 Panamax slots predate Tuesday maintenance; counting another capacity reduction would duplicate the shock. https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-adopts-additional-measures-to-address-reduced-precipitation-in-the-canal-watershed/ . (2) Dorian99% quarterly calendar days fixed onSep4 and its10K says waits typically unpaid, so fresh spot-rate claims cannot reprice every booked day. https://www.dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-VLGC-Newbuilding-Contracts-Forward-Chartering-Estimates-and-New-Credit-Facility/default.aspx ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm . (3) LPG positive costed holdout22.914%/stress10.995% and2026+86.043% justify a watch; BWLP heldapart-18.779% contrasts with2026+114.354%. These reused histories and30 sensitivity cells do not establish a new event edge. (4) LPG58.15<58.31 andBWLP25.66<26.14 breakout thresholds; CSTM25.55<SMA20027.0669/RSI2 26.88 fails its pullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . (5) LPG costed3R70.596 is a hurdle, not supported fair value; positive unconditional simulation does not supply that missing valuation. Conclusion: no orders or exit changes. Cash is chosen for specific missing joint conditions, not a claim that the whole market has no opportunities. Strongest countercase is prolonged scarcity plus booked cash; preserve it and reopen on qualifying completed signals plus Q4 cash/NAV evidence. Route normalization, unpaid waiting and rising charter costs weaken the thesis. Reasoning valid conditional on premises; soundness limited by selected history, private fixtures, daily versus15minute execution, corporate-action audit and incomplete FDA coverage. Calendar3705 verifies MondayMRK HYPERION date,ABVX financials,SCE11ET;TuesdayMLKN BMO,regional surveys,H6. Monitors388/415 retained,447MRK added,440 resolved after actual collector284 END11/11; existing282 monitors signals/ACP through absence. Midnight extra reminder rejected by20-monitor cap; scheduled next00UTC research and handoff note cover it. No other fund lots or orders touched. No separate FUND proposal.

Premises:Supply120cash,account1000,25%venuecap250,ownledgerempty; prices andtrueATR https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . AtLPG58.15 stopproxyE−2ATR=54.31223;20bpside cost makesone-shareloss4.062694. Net3Rrequires70.595575, versusgross69.66331 usedindiagnostic. FormulaT=[4E(1+c)−3S(1−c)]/(1−c),c=.002. BWLPstop23.961/nettarget31.168383/one-shareloss1.798242;CSTM23.707/31.488619/1.941514. Thesearecostedhurdles,notfairvalueorthesisinvalidationandnotorders. Budgetaffords2LPG/4BWLP/4CSTMwholesatcloseincludingcost. Hypothetical50%gapLPGoneshare29.24945<30normalrisk,twoshares58.50fails;oneroundlotthusupperboundforthisstress,notrecommendation. BWLPoneshare12.90698 andCSTM12.85165. ConditionalLPGhistoricalhalfKellypositive butuncertain; grossquarterprobeof120notional~30cannotbuyoneLPGshare,sofractionalRTHorcoarserwholelotrequiresfreshdecision—neverroundupriskimplicitly. Actualsize0becausecurrententryanddefendedtargetmissing. NoSupplyholdingsmeannoRmultiple/dayheld/exitreviewapplicable; noqueuedSupplyordertocancel. Otherfundordersarenotmanagedhere. FreshpaidQ4cashplusqualifyingsignalcouldchangemind;normalization/unpaidwaits/cashcostsweakencase. Never widenatargettofundrunway.

Completed daily SIP/all source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . LPG58.15 is below prior20 close58.31, though aboveSMA50 47.9106 andSMA20036.42945; trueATR20 1.918885,RSI2 81.2051. BWLP25.66 below26.14prior20 butabove22.1914SMA50/17.28885SMA200;ATR.8495,RSI2 35.1882. CSTM25.55 below27.48prior20/27.9176SMA50/27.0669SMA200,RSI2 26.8794 exceedsfrozen10threshold;ATR.9215. AboveSMAalone doesnotfulfill breakout; RSIandSMAarejointconditionsforCSTM,notindependentvotes. Currentbreakoutentries0/2,CSTMpullback0/1. PriorpositiveCSTMholdout74.81%N12 preservedfrom3669–72,notrerunoroverridden. Newquotealoneisnotnewcompletedclose; no weekend bar orfuturepriceassumed. Nextqualifyingcompletedbarwouldpromptcashduration/valueandcurrentcapsreview; noordermerelybecausepriceapproachesthreshold.

Premises: BB issuer June25 QNX revenue grew26%, but Secure Communications DBNRR92% and OCF4.6m lagged EBITDA36.3m. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000071/q1fy27ex-991.htm . First order: recurring royalties and renewals would improve revenue quality; weaker retention or lumpy licenses reverse it. Second: incremental software contribution could fund product investment without financing; poor conversion reduces that capacity. Third: durable cash could support repurchases and a higher multiple; disappointing cash could compress the39.95–49.94x adjusted forward PE. Counterexample: growth and balance-sheet cash can sustain the valuation despite low current conversion; a put is not justified by the ratio alone. MLKN Tuesday earnings and Monday household-spending/Tuesday regional surveys test commercial and consumer demand, but survey populations differ from company customers. Stronger orders could help factory utilization then margins then cash; weaker volumes reverse that chain. NKE retailer demand is not office furniture demand. Who benefits: customers may capture lower prices while suppliers lose margins; option sellers benefit when paid implied moves exceed realized moves. All chains are hypotheses without assigned causal probabilities. Sources and dates for MLKN, NKE and agencies recorded30821–30826; no new order follows from a macro narrative.

Start: account1000/fund100cash,ownopen/pending/closedtradeN0; goalqualifiedlongoptiontail; bindingconstraintclosedSundayoptionssession. Premises:1 Seven-nameexpiryfilteredchainsrefreshFridayquotes,HALOC130ask.23/THC27ask.18retain7.968/19.895xP80,N17/4.2 NewWOR11eventmedian5.156/P8010.298%,all24legspremium>=67>30; MRKdatedSep21HYPERIONlabelreviewbutmatchededgeunestablished,cheapC162.5.16needs10.751%.3 BestaffordabledatedrejectionSFIXOct16P2.5S2.84ask.28needs21.831%>16.578%median,P80.552156=1.972x<4.4 Noownpositionneedsstopadjustment;5collectorshealthy,4newmonitors448–451armed. Conclusion:noorders,100cashbecauseclosedresearch; notallcandidatesfail andnotatrading-runflatbreachincrement. At09:50/12:30freshattainablequote andhonestexit-awarehalfKelly: provisionalmaxoneHALO/THcontracteachifjustified,sizepremium<=30,total<=100,max4; paid.23/.18wouldrisk23/18entirepremium,stops.115/.09,targetdefendedP801.83/3.58,horizontoOct16. Theseareconditionalreferences,NOTstandingordersorverifiedfills. Recomputeonspot/askchanges; ifnewdatedeventpricedmove>realizedmedianexitpriorRTHsession. SFIXchange-of-mindgrossmedianceiling.130816atunchangedS,after.02cost.110816; attainablecheapquoteandfreshthesisrequired. WORP55hypothetical.30wouldfitmedianbutactual2.14,nofictionalpriceimprovement. Soundness: grossmathreproduced; regime/actualquotes/stopmark/oddsunresolved,priorstockholdoutsnotoptionvalidation. Modeluncertaintyisnotpermanentcashveto. NewMRK/WORcalendarprimaries30854–55; sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/HALO?feed=indicative ; /data/option-chain/TH?feed=indicative ; SFIXissuer https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . NoFUNDproposal.

Source SIP/all daily https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2026N179: LPG betaSPY.4719/corr.1391/annvol44.97%;BWLPbeta.3225/corr.1040/vol41.12%;CSTMbeta2.0005/corr.5441/vol48.73%. LPG-BWLPcorr.7668: low marketbeta does not make two shipowners independent. BaseLPGholdoutN17 win6/17,avgwin20.4379%,avgloss7.9172%,mean2.0905%,20kIIDbootstrap95%mean[-4.2318,8.8474]%; recentN8CI[-.1053,17.8982]. BWLPheldapartN8mean-2.2291%,CI[-6.9539,4.1100]. BinaryaveragepayoffhalfKellyrisk=.5*(p-(1-p)/(avgwin/avgloss)):LPG.0511419,BWLP0. Riskfraction mustbedividedbylossfractiontoconverttonotional,then capped—not51USDnotional. Sample andselectionuncertainty substantial; no liveclosedtrades tocalibrateslippage/probabilities. LPGworstobservedopen gap-22.275%Mar16 2020;BWLP-13.299%Apr4 2025;CSTM-19.625%Oct23 2024;corporateactionauditnotcomplete. These are descriptivebounds ofsample,notfuturelosslimits. Prior neutral; currentpositiveLPGcash/testevidenceupgradeswatch, notcounterfeitprobability; freshpaidQ4fixturesandsignal wouldjustifynewsize, route normalization andcashabsorptionweakenit. Noorder.

Premises: joint open/high/low/close relative to previousclose, SIP/all https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars,2024on history, seed92008, five-dayblocks,10000paths pername,60sessions. AtSep18LPG58.15 trueATR1.918885 gives hypotheticalstop54.31223/target69.66331;BWLP25.66 ATR.8495 gives23.961/30.757. Gapsstopatopen,stopfirstifboth,targetcapped,20bpsidefriction,markremainingattimeexit. LPGtarget30.55%,stop65.86%,mean1.3275%,profit33.51%,P05-8.4741%;BWLPtarget39.18%,stop57.61%,mean3.3743%,profit41.86%,P05-9.6904%. One-shareP05loss4.928/2.487USD is notmaxloss. Strongbullcountercase: positive unconditionaldrift andtailpayoff. Limitation: bootstrap repeatsregime,notconditionalentryforecast,blocksremoveobservedlongerdependence; dailychecksarenotvenue15minfills. Gross3Rhurdle beforecosts doesnotmeetnet3R; neitherlevelisdefendedfairvalue. Actualsize0 because entry/value remainunestablished, notbecausesimulationfailscertainty. Do notconvertmodelprofitfrequencyintoKellyprobability.

Premises: SIP/all adjusted daily data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, requested2015 but actualLPG2016on/BWLP2024-04-29on. Rule fixed before results: close>prior20close maximum and>SMA50; next open enter; stop2 prior trueATR20, target6ATR, force60sessions; entrydaystop/targetallowed, gaps throughstop atopen, bothhitstopfirst, upsidegaps capped attarget. Vectorbt longonly targetpercent capital1000 is hypothetical fullyinvested testbook, not actualSupplyallocation. Fees5bp plus15bpslippageeachside; stress45bpslip. 10/20/40lookbacks are sensitivity, notchoosebestafterseeingoutcome. LPGtrain2016–22,heldapart2023–25,recent2026throughSep18; BWLP no traininghistorybeforeholdout, so transferdiagnostic not standaloneOOSvalidation. All 12 cells reconcile portfolio return to compounded net trade returns within1e-8. Baseholdout return-18.7795%,DD33.2491%,win25.0000%,N8,targets1;stress-22.5860%;recent114.3538%,N7. Allcells in observations and /tmp/supply92008/results.json. Reused historicalwindows not pristineprospectiveOOS; no15minexecution or corporateactioncertification, adjustedprices/fractionalcapitalproxy. Gross3Rbracket isbelow3Rnetaftercosts andnotfairvalue; no order. Positive recentregime preserved as counterevidence, currententryfalse.

Premises: SIP/all adjusted daily data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, requested2015 but actualLPG2016on/BWLP2024-04-29on. Rule fixed before results: close>prior20close maximum and>SMA50; next open enter; stop2 prior trueATR20, target6ATR, force60sessions; entrydaystop/targetallowed, gaps throughstop atopen, bothhitstopfirst, upsidegaps capped attarget. Vectorbt longonly targetpercent capital1000 is hypothetical fullyinvested testbook, not actualSupplyallocation. Fees5bp plus15bpslippageeachside; stress45bpslip. 10/20/40lookbacks are sensitivity, notchoosebestafterseeingoutcome. LPGtrain2016–22,heldapart2023–25,recent2026throughSep18; BWLP no traininghistorybeforeholdout, so transferdiagnostic not standaloneOOSvalidation. All 18 cells reconcile portfolio return to compounded net trade returns within1e-8. Baseholdout return22.9143%,DD41.2651%,win35.2941%,N17,targets5;stress10.9951%;recent86.0430%,N8. Allcells in observations and /tmp/supply92008/results.json. Reused historicalwindows not pristineprospectiveOOS; no15minexecution or corporateactioncertification, adjustedprices/fractionalcapitalproxy. Gross3Rbracket isbelow3Rnetaftercosts andnotfairvalue; no order. Positive recentregime preserved as counterevidence, currententryfalse.

Premises from issuerJune25 Q1FY27endedMay31 SEC https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000071/q1fy27ex-991.htm : revenue152.9m,+26%; adjustedEBITDA36.3m; OCF4.6m, cash/investments422.9m; repurchases10m. CashconversionOCF/EBITDA12.67%,buybacks2.17xOCF; neither represents recurring freecashflow. QNXrevenue72.3m,+26%; SecureCommunicationsARR220m/DBNRR92% show retention weakness despite reportedgrowth. FY27adjustedEPSguide.16–.20 gives39.95–49.94x atSep18S7.99; accountingadjustments andgrowth make this no standalonefairvalue. Q2revenue137–148m andOCF0–10m are guide, notconsensus. Conclusion: bullcase profitableQNXscale versus bearcase weakcashconversion andlicensemix; neither fixes timing ordirection odds. Wouldupgradeonactualrecurringcash/retentionimprovement anddowngradeonburn/ARRerosion, while preserving optiongates. Factsareissuerreports; surpriseprobabilitiesunmeasured.

Premises: issuer/SEC originals give13quarterly releases Jun2023–Jun2026; daily reaction alignedAMC nextsession/BMO sameday. IndividualURLs/priorclose/open/close recorded30869–30894. SIP1182bars throughSep18 from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Median absoluteclose reaction9.1152815%,P8012.832986%,mean signed+4.394818%,8/13up. Trainpre2026N11median9.1153; 2026N2median14.0844. 50000bootstrap resamples seed92008:median90%interval6.986–12.683%,P80interval10.860–19.954%; small nonstationarysample, not calibratedfutureprobabilities. CurrentS7.99 Oct2C8.5ask.43/bid.38/OI1279/spread11.63%, strike6.383%OTM; hurdle11.7647>median,P80intrinsic.515356=1.19850x<4. Signedmappedintrinsic wins3/13,mean.66507xpremium; notactualoptionEV. Oct2P7.5ask.46/bid.25/OI575/spread45.65%;hurdle11.8899%,P801.16382x,2/13signedwins. P7ask.20spread70%,P80.17678x. Rejectcurrenttickets. AtunchangedS callgrossmedianpriceceiling.218311, .198311afterassumed.02friction; grossP80fourfoldceiling.128839. Putcorrespondingmedian.238311/.218311. Theseare thresholdprices, notattainablequotes. Sep24eventsource https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 ; Oct2expiry8dayslater. Absolute tails do not imply eitherdirection wins80%; timing/businessregime confounds limit soundness.

MondaySep21: ABVXH1financialresultsdateonly https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/ ; MRKWINREVAIRHYPERIONlabelPDUFAdateonly https://www.merck.com/news/merck-highlights-progress-advancing-broad-diverse-pipeline/ (actualdecisionstatusnotestablished); NYFedSCEHouseholdSpending11ET https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html . TuesdaySep22: MLKNBMO/08:30ETcall https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; WORAMC/nextday08:30ETcall https://ir.worthingtonenterprises.com/news/news-details/2026/Worthington-Enterprises-Schedules-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2027-Earnings-Call-for-September-23/default.aspx ; Phillynonmanufacturing08:30ET/Richmondmanufacturing10ETsameNYFedcalendar; H6 13ET https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm . IONS Sep22PDUFAobsolete: issuerSep3approval https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zanvastrotm-zilganersen-approved-fda-first-and-only-disease . Premises: issuer/agencydates areeligibility,notedge; releasehouronlywhereexplicit; oldaggregatorsnotindependentcorroboration. Actions: cash/order/labelimprovement=>recordactualsandreprice; weakness/delay=>updatepremises; neitherautomaticorder. Existing417/418 plusnewMRK/WORmonitorscoverreviews; earlynewsremainsrisk. BroadsearchfoundnonUSfinancial/dividenditemsbutdidnotestablishnewUSoptionedge; noforeignspot/crypto substituteunderlongoptionmandate. Coveragebounded,notallFDA/courtcalendar; MRKmatchedstudyandnewcryptooptioncatalystremainunestablished. Noown due monitors,noheldexits.

Premises:1 WORQ4organicgrowth3%versusreported17%,EPS.97vs1.06;2 MRKWINREVAIR2025sales2.154%oftotal,andHYPERIONalreadypublic;3 HALOfinancingcashbridgeprior3659residual460m,THsecondaryproceedsbelongtosellersprior30219. Firstorder: WORearnings canrevealorganicorders/cashconversion; MRKlabelcanbroadencommercialevidence; financinghedgescaninflatebreakoutvolume. Secondorder: component suppliers/distributorsandpayers mayadjustorders/access,butincrementalpaidrevenueunknown. Thirdorder: optionIVandtimevaluecanfalldespitefavorablebusinessnews,whilejointdecayconsumes100fund. Who benefits: industrialcustomersfromcapacity,Merckfromadoption,financingintermediariesfromfees; longoptionbuyersneedpricedtailbeforeexit. Strongcounterargument: genuinegrowthcanpersistafterflowsandlabelchangescanshiftlongrunvalue; thereforepreserveHALO/THpassandMRKresearchwithoutpretendingcalendarestablishesdirection. Sources WORissuer30864; MRKissuer30855; HALO https://ir.halozyme.com/news/news-details/2026/Halozyme-Therapeutics-Inc--Announces-Pricing-of-Upsized-Private-Offering-of-1-3-Billion-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes-due-2033/default.aspx ; THprimary30219.

Premises:1 vectorbtfixedT-3open->release-dayclose,30USDstocknotional/1000testbook,10bpfees and10/50bpslippageeachside. DatesissuerAMC30843–53; trainDec2023–Jun2025N7,testSep2025–Jun2026N4,no parameterfit.2 Base trainreturn-.06727%,DD.44617%,win57.14%; test+.207454%,DD.186279%,win50%.50bpsliptest+.110431%,DD.221864%; training-.235339%.3 CLIbreakout20/1000days/stop5/target15 returns-3.7511%,DD22.033%,win29.412%,N34; differentbar/entrypolicy,noisolatedholdout,diagnostic only. Conclusion: smallpositiveunderlyingholdoutdoesnotvalidateanoptionstrategyorreplacepremiumcap; noactualtrade. Dec2023transitionfinancials retained as disclosed; no tuningtoselectwinner. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer schedule URLs30843–53. Scriptresearch/study.py andCLIresultsavedlocally; allstatsin journal.

Premises:1 NumPyseed9200802,N100000resamplesof11signedWORearningsclose-reactions; frozenS57.38,K55put,ask2.14,+.02friction.2 MapK-S*(1+r)positivepart; meancontractnet-156.32USD,median-216,loss90.716%,zero-intrinsic63.5%,terminal3xpremium0%.3 This is empiricalterminalintrinsicscenario,NOT optionfill/PnLforecast; remainingtimevalue,IV,50%stopandadverseselectionexcluded. Quantizedsize0because214premium>30capregardlessmodel. Conclusion: no live Kelly or exitodds established; do notbuyhypotheticalcheapfillsbecausebootstraplooksbetter. Newoptions simulationsunnecessary forunchangedHALO/TH: prior3658fullpremiumandshared-lossstress retained,notrerun. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/WOR?feed=indicative .

Premises:1 WORissuerJune23FY2026sales1.4bn+20%,acquisition121.7m/organic9%,adjustedEPS3.37,FCF170.2m+7%; Q4sales371.5m+17%,44.1macquisitions/3%organic,EPS.97vs1.06. AtS57.38trailingadjustedPE17.03,notfairvalue.2 MRKFeb3FY2025WINREVAIRsales1.4bn/company65bn=2.154%; Sep21HYPERIONlabelreview notinitialapproval; no6matchedlabel-eventstudyestablishedthisrun.3 Affordability bindsWOR beforevaluation: min67>30; MRKcheapOct2C162.5.16 needs10.751%up,matchingeventedgeunknown. Conclusion: dates qualifyresearch,notdeployment. Counterexample: smallreportedproductsharecanhavegreatergrowthvalue; declineinWORquarterlyEPSdespitesalesgrowthcanreflectmix/acquisitionexpenses. Neitherfactprovesdirection. Change mind onactualcash/orders/labelterms plusqualifiedattainablecontract. Sources https://ir.worthingtonenterprises.com/news/news-details/2026/Worthington-Enterprises-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2026-Results/ ; https://www.merck.com/news/merck-highlights-progress-advancing-broad-diverse-pipeline/ ; MRKJune3010Qsource30855.

Premises:1 Recomputed285completedSIP/allbars Aug2025–Sep18,2026. HALO112.45>prior252intradayhigh111.15,6.93064xprior20volume; TH21.19>20.85,2.41955x.2 WOR57.38<62.90priorhigh despite2.3207xvolume; MRK146.87<156 despite3.1588xvolume; MLKN20.66<24.51 despite3.0194x.3 WORaboveSMA20054.8321,ATR201.955185,RSI1448.9623; MRKaboveSMA200118.9127,ATR3.313,RSI56.9862. Conclusion: volumealone doesnotcreate52weekbreakout; retainHALO/TH technicaleligibility but financingflows remainalternativeexplanation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Independent broad1595historyscreenfromR92002notrerunonunchangedweekendbars; thisrefreshis7names,notwholemarketcensus.