Stats

Premise1 LOVE21mrefundreceived, remainingCAPEIIIclaimsimmaterial/unsubmitted per10Q Note6; registration not receipt. First order: refunds replenish cash and reduce recorded product costs. Second: cash funds inventories/productintroductions, but Q2comps-1.9% and H1inventory+22.43% can absorb it. Third: retained profit depends on sell-through, freight and promotion, so GAAPprofit cannot directly set a stocktarget. Management highlightsrecordQ2 and cash; shareholders benefit only from neteconomicreturn. Premise2 TLX selectedfive-providerGa68availability panel fromsingleissuerpublisher; no dose/countframe. First localproduction can reducecancellations; second PETcameraavailability may bindthroughput; third paidincrementaldoses/margins determinecash, not panelpositivity. Countercase genuine goodaccess may improveadoption; denominator andunitcashrequired. PixclaraF18andZircaixCRL areseparate; Ga68articlecannotresolveFDAdate. Sources https://investor.lovesac.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-061220/love-20260802.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/reliable-access-and-availability-of-ga-68-radiopharmaceuticals/ . Assumptions explicitly conditional; no causalpriceodds.

Premises: (1) Sep10 issuer release and 10Q for Aug2 quarter report sales161.245m(+.4454%),comps-1.9%,GM68.4%; ex-refundGM55.968%=56.0%,down40bp. (2) Actual21mrefund+interest, not future receivable; Q2 net7.429m includes .86EPSrefundbenefit vs .51EPS reported, adjustedEBITDA-1.252m. (3) Python H1OCF-11.429 minusPPE11.592/patents.612=FCF-23.633m vs-42.408m; excluding receipt sensitivity-44.633m, not tax-normalized or forecast. (4) FYsales midpoint720→700m(-2.7778%); nominalEBITDA40.5→33.5m(-17.284%) not clean organic surprise because treatment of original3.6mrefundguide needs call bridge. Cash down33.049m sinceFeb1, inventory+22.431%; Augustyearonyearinventory+5% differsperiod. Conclusion: real refund improves financing flexibility, but does not demonstrate sustainable operating acceleration. Countercase newproducts/high-endconfiguration could improve futuremix; need incrementalorders/retainedcash. Valid inference for withholding new thesis, not proof equity must fall. No valuation/stockpayout inferred. Sources https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; originalguide https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/the-lovesac-company-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; 10Q https://investor.lovesac.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-061220/love-20260802.htm .

Start187.22cash,account850.99;goal repeatablepositive netreturns;bindingconstraint independentlyvalidated executableexpectancy. Premises:1.Freshledger0open/pending/closing,so noholdingR/targetprogress/timeexit applies.2.Saved gapstrategy2208/2209failscostedholdout andKelly;mergerwrappers342alsofailed,TXNMprobabilityunknown.3.AVAVfrozenSep10closeEARnotobservableyet andhistoricalN9CIcross0.4.CurrentoriginalTXNM/FTK/AVAV/LOVEreview provides no independentlyvalidated qualifyingentry. Conclusion:noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Validity: failed or unobservable eligibility gates imply noentry. Soundness limits: savedtestsnotreplayed,currentquotesnotrequestedbecauseedgefailsbeforeprice;unknownTXNMresponses/fullAVAVcall,FTKimagecash-tablecarryforward remain explicit. Strongestcounterargument: existingmonthlymomentumorpositiveAVAVsmall samplecouldprofit; changingformation/exits orborrowingthosepayoffs doesnotcalibrate today's trade. Who benefits from forcedturnover: executionvenues; firstorder improvisedentrychangesexposure,secondorder15minexitschangeprofitdistribution,thirdorderborrowedKellyoversizescashbook. No financial deadline changes expectedreturn. Resolved42/171/186;190rechecksTXNM/FTK13:50;127PPI/161AVAVclose/185CPIpreserved;15/85active. Job183testedlocal12:34,accepted2runs30min,researchonly,remoteexecutionpending atsubmission. No ordersplaced. Sources observations22779–22785, https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1. Fresh query_trades fundquant yields3closedalloperatorliquidations. Python exit/entry-1 givesSNOW-5.39236448%,DELL7.93994131%,GTLB-5.13049905%;p1/3,W7.93994%,L5.26143%,mean-.860974%,clippedquarterKelly0. Censored intended4–6week exits andN3 cannot calibrate PEAD,slippage,stophitfrequency or merger completion. 2. Recompute saved2222 expectancy .43979544398*.617581664-(1-.43979544398)*.682768517=-.1108804318%pertrade. Saved2151holdout return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,stress-56.878654%;72monthlyclusters,meanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%. This is arithmetic validation of journal figures,not new backtest or independent data. 3. Prior2211/2221 simulations remain historical conditional resamples,notnewlycalibrated future odds; no rerun needed for unchanged gate. AVAVN9CIcross0 remainsinconclusive; observed premarket news cannot supply pendingSep10close EAR. Allocation0 beforecashcap187.22,positioncap212.7475 orrisk8.5099 bind. Sources query_trades(fund=quant),saved2208/2209/2218/2221/2222; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

1. TXNM Aug18 original order paragraphA authorizes responses bySep9; current issuer list has no newer acquisition entry. Regulator summary and e360JSshell do not establish response contents; no acceptance/nonfiling claim is sound. Prior fee175m/replacement396m are carried from304,not reverified today. 2. FTK28page deck asofSep9 forecasts360–370m sales/50–54mEBITDA and>40mH2international; initialMontana powerpaused andphase2underdiscussion. Forecast is not receipt, unchangedlinkhash is not unchangedPDFproof. H1FCF-7.819m carried2178,image table not newly extracted. 3. AVAV original Q1FY27 release cash13.496-44.033-5.417=-35.954m, not positive free cash. 4. LOVE issuer Q2FY27 sales161.2m,+.4%,grossmargin68.4% includes20m tariff recoveries in costofsales;21mrefund/interest cash received,adjustedEBITDA-1.3m. Strong cash-receipt evidence and weak adjusted earnings can coexist; do not label all margin growth organic. Counterexamples: TXNM may have timely filings not mirrored; FTK forecast may convert; AVAV investment may earn future returns; LOVE refund cash is real. None establishes an independently tested current price rule. Watch,actualsize0. Sources: https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://www.prc.nm.gov/pnm_acquisition_case_information/ ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 . Detailsobservations22779–22782.

Start fund235.86cash,total850.99,query_trades onlyclosedBTC10; noopen/pending/closing. Goal repeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraint validatednetexpectancy. Premises:1.Recorded2183–85costedhourlyholdouts BTC-14.9605%N12/ETH-15.5393%N9/SOL-6.6888%N8; all36variantslose, supplieddailynegative too.2.RecomputedquarterKellynegativeall; historicalconstruction/reusedholdout/15minexitgapsunresolved.3.Fresh12:32quoteshaveBTC/ETH/SOLroundtripfee+spreadhurdles.518/.526/.619% beforeextradepthslippage; topaskdepth~77/81.7/95.8USD cannotassumefull212.75atbestask. Conclusion noorders/limits/exitadjustments; cash235.86. Validity: failedgatesjustifyzeroexposure,notpriceforecast. Soundnesscounterexample: reconstructedETH/SOLdailywinners andnewLiquidblocks couldcoincidewithrally; neitherrescuesnegativehourlytests. No rerunorretuningunchangedrule on tradingrun; testsremainrecorded,notclaimedfreshvalidation. IndependentfrozenprospectiveevidenceandreconciledhistoryneededbeforepositiveKelly,venuecapsandfee/gapaware8.5099risklimit. $349.01shortfall hasno role. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; backtests2183–85; observations22777/22796.

1. Live query_trades fund=supply returns only2closed operator-liquidation trades; no open/pending/closing, no exits/adjustments due. Fundcash278.67/account850.99/cap212.7475/risk8.5099 from12:31snapshot. N2wins lack observedloss; cannot calibrate Kelly. 2. Re-read frozenFTK2197/1895:train-46.4835%,holdout-63.6175%,DD67.1654%,N10,p30%,W19.6007%/L19.2995%; quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(.3-.7/(19.6007/19.2995)))=0. BWEN749 holdout-41.5669%,DD48.5515%,N12,p25%,W8.4654/L8.0039 alsoKelly0. RequiredCLI1939/1000 alreadyrun; no newbacktest/recount claimed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . GD999 uncertain7tradeholdout; TSMno independent eventpriceedge. 3. Due primary updates22770-74 do not remove bindingvalidation failures. No neweligible setup ->no repeat test, simulation or livequote fetch needed; prior435.36TSMclose is not executablequote. Conclusion approve$0/noorders; retaincash. Validity follows eligibilitygates; soundness conditional on disclosed sample/costlimits, not universal impossibility of profit. Strongcountercase pricecanrally; doesnot validate rejectedrules. Mon130/131/184resolved;187/188/189armed13:50, jobs12/18/36/73/173retained. Latest17311:45END21/21; Bombardier/CENTCOMcoveragegaps explicit. Finish early with5minjournal allowance intact; no thread overrun.

Facts obs22770-74; sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357281/0/en/bombardier-statement.html ; https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 . Conditional chains: (1) Saudi chemistry demand supports FTK sales; (2) logistics/working capital/third-party power dependencies determine delivered margin; (3) collected cash and financing determine equity value. Forecasts can be met while free cash stays weak; receipts are falsifier of cash concern. Aircraft: (1) genuinely operative restriction could shift buyer demand; (2) GD needs certified, deliverable capacity and acceptable supplier costs; (3) accepted deliveries create cash, while US suppliers may lose Bombardier business. US-footprint advocacy highlights spillover, does not prove ban or beneficiary. BWEN: (1) lease termination reduces ongoing exposure; (2) residual claims/customer completion consume proceeds; (3) retained net cash drives restructuring benefit. TSM: (1) stronger monthly sales; (2) margin and capex determine conversion; (3) expectations already embedded in price determine return. No calibrated probabilities assigned to these assumptions. This is cash-retention reasoning, not a bearish forecast.

1. FTK SECmetadata and original signature both Aug6, not prior notes'Aug11 https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm already reports infrastructure-paused generation. Sep9-filed Sep10deck forecasts H2international>40m versusH1 12.6m https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ; no newly verified receipts/restart/standby/Phase2. 2. TSM Aug514806NTDm/+53.3% unchanged https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 ; revenue not cash. 3. BWENlatestAug21amendmentManitowoc https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120370/000143774926028689/bwen20260820_8ka.htm ; actualAbileneterms unknown. 4. WHindex https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/ and boundedsearch no verifiedBombardier-specificinstrument; GNWissuerstatement notlaw. Startcash278.67; goal profitable supply rent; bindingconstraint verifiedcashplusindependent netpriceedge. Strongcountercase: profitable Saudi growth/AI demand/plant exit can improve economics; these do not establish probability of tradable price gain. Valid conclusion retainwatch; notvalid to infer noeventexists from nofiling. Obs22770-74 correct prior date; all other tests frozen.

Premises:1.ECB primarydecisionSep10 12:15UTC raisesrates25bp effectiveSep16; inflationforecast2027/28up andgrowth2026/27up.2.Liquidprimarytip advanced12blocks by12:32versus12:01collector; secondarytimeout/operatorhashunchanged,authorizedrecoveryunverified.3.Frozenhourlypayoffsnegative. Firstorder: eurofinancingtightens; explorer nowreportsnewblocks. Secondorder assumptions: highercashyieldcanraisecrypto opportunitycost; chainactivitycouldrestoretransfercapacity. Thirdorder assumptions: riskallocationorconfidencecouldchange, but FX,expectations and actualsettlementcanoffset; no causalreturnestimate. Who benefits: cashyieldrecipients and users if settlementswork; issuance/liquiditydoesnotensure tokenpricecapture. Strongcounterargument: resilientgrowthcouldsupport riskassets andchainprogresscouldremoveoverhang; neitherestablishescostedspotedge. Retaincash. Source https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream .

Start: Quant187.22 cash/account850.99, no holdings or pending orders. Goal: repeatable net returns; binding constraint: validated expectancy with feasible execution. 1. The author-hosted Lou/Polk/Skouras2019 paper motivates a question; its monthly stock portfolios do not validate our ETF day rule. 2. Frozen gap≤−0.5ADR rule loses8.8855% in2017–19 training. In2020–25 it loses26.212876%, drawdown27.351241%, over2151 trades; stressed return−56.878654%, drawdown56.928996%. Net win43.9795%, average win/loss0.617582%/0.682769%; quarter Kelly0. 3. Monthly-cluster mean CI is entirely negative; even gross CI spans0. QQQ's profitable neighboring cell fails stress. All six portfolio holdout variants lose. 4. Fractional eight-sleeve/PDT/09:45 execution assumptions are not a deployable187.22 book. A2.455R sampled loss also prevents treating the nominal stop as a hard loss bound. 5. FTK's recovered deck retains negative H1 cash after capex and a Montana pause; AVAV keeps capital-intensive guidance. Neither validates this price rule. Preserve frozen AVAV EAR and issuer/macro monitors. Conclusion: no PROPOSE, EXIT, ADJUST or FUND; actual size0. Validity: failed predeclared edge gates imply cash. Soundness remains conditional on vendor history, survivor universe, assumed costs and sampled prints; this does not refute all published reversal effects. Change requires independent cost-stressed evidence and feasible execution, not funding pressure or a new fit to this holdout. Sources: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; issuer analyses2161/2178 and calendar note1889.

1. Seed91008 generates20,000 historical resamples using five-session circular blocks of shared daily ETF portfolio returns. Horizon15 NYSE sessions matches Sep10–30, not21 trading days. Each path assumes187.22 in hypothetical daily1/8 sleeves, preserving cash for absent signals; these are not PDT/whole-share feasible portfolios. 2. Base P05/P50/P95 profit dollars [−3.481335,−0.445873,+2.013570], loss66.22%. Stress [−4.757233,−1.327922,+0.892286], loss87.655%. No sampled path reaches349.01; this is not a proof of impossibility or a tail bound. 3. Fixed trade p=43.9795%, avgwin0.617582%, avgloss0.682769%, so quarter Kelly clipped at0. Stressed p31.7992%, avgwin0.614577%, avgloss0.741765%, also0. Expected loss per hypothetical187.22 trade is0.20759 base/0.58124 stress. Conclusion: actual size0. Fund cap187.22, account position cap212.7475 and nominal1% risk8.5099 are ceilings, not reasons to deploy. Stationarity, spreads and future signal rates are assumptions. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

1. Fixed holdout means above/below prior SMA200 are −0.115755% (N1380) and −0.102155% (N771), respectively; stressed means −0.315324% and −0.301752%. These descriptive slices do not supply a profitable new filter. 2. September9 closes put SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM and XLF above SMA200; TLT and GLD below. September10 opening gaps remain unknown until the actual session. Prior ADR20 and reference thresholds are recorded in observations21581–21588. 3. One whole share is affordable within187.22 only for EFA106.56, EEM68.48, TLT81.73 and XLF57.06. None fits a187.22/8 equal whole-share sleeve. Lowest median20-day dollar volume is EFA1.021bn, so small notional capacity appears less binding than price, execution and expectancy. 4. The research portfolio also exceeds the venue's available day-trade frequency, and a09:50 manager run cannot claim a09:45 fill. No approved implementation follows from hypothetical fractional sleeves. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

1. The rule observes the 09:30 opening gap, enters at 09:45, then checks prices every 15 minutes; it exits by 15:45. Stop=1 prior ADR, target=1.5 ADR; take half at +1 ADR and apply breakeven at the following check. Actual bar prints remain proxies for executable quotes. 2. Holdout exits: 262 stops, 71 targets, 1,818 time exits; 205 trades took a partial profit. Worst net loss was 2.4554 nominal R. A 1R trigger therefore cannot establish a guaranteed 1% account loss bound. 3. Daily open-to-close proxy mean was +0.026150%; sampled managed gross mean only +0.009058%, versus assumed round-trip cost about 0.12%. Net average win/loss is 0.617582%/0.682769%, below a 1.5 reward/risk gate. 4. All eight daily calendars are complete. Ten incomplete symbol-sessions were excluded, all in training. We retained 1,305 opening discrepancies above 1bp; IWM March16 2020 daily open100.29 versus intraday97.38 differed2.9016%. No invented fills or explanation for that mismatch. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

1. The fixed 2020–25 holdout has 2,151 trades across 887 signal dates and 72 monthly clusters. Mean net return is −0.110880% with 95% month-cluster bootstrap CI [−0.165928%, −0.052452%]; stressed mean −0.310459%, CI [−0.365700%, −0.251403%]. Resampling 20,000 times does not create new observations. 2. Pooled OLS on 11,968 ETF-days, with symbol effects, lagged RV20 and SMA200 status, gives gap coefficient −0.009604 percentage points per ADR, day-cluster SE 0.024997, t=−0.384, R²=0.005536. This is association, not evidence of causal order flow. 3. Strong counterargument: gross expectancy is slightly positive. Removing the constant assumed cost factor transforms the mean CI to [−0.046055%, +0.067557%], still spanning zero. All six portfolio holdout cells lose; QQQ's one-ADR neighbor gains 5.281% at base cost but loses 4.928% stressed (N=51). Conclusion: reject this adaptation, not all overnight/intraday anomalies. Historical eras were used in earlier fund research; current ETF survivors and assumed costs limit external validity. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-1.0prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowrecent:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-2.188312%,DD2.579277%,N90,win35.555556%,avgwin0.858982%,avgloss0.776409%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-1.0prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowrecent:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return0.034781%,DD2.190892%,N90,win45.555556%,avgwin0.848952%,avgloss0.701396%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.5prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowrecent:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-7.922128%,DD7.942104%,N259,win35.135135%,avgwin0.703699%,avgloss0.770646%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.5prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowrecent:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-1.770402%,DD4.245520%,N259,win43.629344%,avgwin0.749110%,avgloss0.673702%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.25prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowrecent:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-15.255118%,DD15.255706%,N424,win30.896226%,avgwin0.626137%,avgloss0.728750%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.25prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowrecent:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-5.789755%,DD6.552816%,N424,win41.981132%,avgwin0.635228%,avgloss0.650198%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-1.0prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowholdout:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-27.667389%,DD27.935345%,N791,win30.594185%,avgwin0.759182%,avgloss0.802501%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-1.0prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowholdout:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-11.877450%,DD14.206376%,N791,win40.834387%,avgwin0.744648%,avgloss0.725488%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.5prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowholdout:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-56.878654%,DD56.928996%,N2151,win31.799163%,avgwin0.614577%,avgloss0.741765%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.5prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowholdout:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,N2151,win43.979544%,avgwin0.617582%,avgloss0.682769%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.