Stats

20,000numpyseed911iid10-tradepaths from134trainingnetreturns only,fullcapitalreinvestment sensitivity. Median-25.03%,loss85.595%,drawdown>20%86.415%,5thpercentile-43.61%. Trainingp17.9104%,W11.3814%,L5.3252%;halfKellycapital=max(0,.5*(p/L-(1-p)/W))=0. Ignoresdependence/regimeandunseenFDAgaps; notpricepathforecastorapprovalprobability. No estimatedFDAwinodds justified. Fullfund49.14 loss=5.7745%account;quarterfund12.285totalloss1.4436%account, butaffordabilityalonecannotrepairnegativeexpectancy. 3%accountnormalrisk25.5297 and25%positioncap212.7475do notrequireusingthem. Currentallocation0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Sep10SIPclose1.46 belowSMA20 1.47875,above50/200 1.2745/.9915795;RSI53.44. 20session+16.8%,ADR.110055=7.54%price,ATR.10703,annualRV55.82%;20dayaverage$volume1.080m. Mixedtrendstate, nottechnicalbreakdownorpositiveeventedge. Illustrative1ADRrisk/3ADRreward gives1.349945/1.790165 around1.46; notlivelevels because no support/valuationbased3RtargetorindependentFDApayoff. Dailyworstgap-21.74%since2022 isobservedtail,notmaximumpossibleloss. CLI1460dayIEXunadjusteddiagnosticreturn-30.1333%,DD70.606%,N124/win27.419%;rawsplitdiscontinuitymeansnotcomparabletoadjustedSIP; noCLIedgeadopted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days984 --stop-pct8 --target-pct24. BTC985bars return46.46075/DD14.69243/win34.32836/N67; ETH985bars24.55541/DD24.94326/win29.09091/N55; SOL747bars48.32999/DD18.61323/win52.63158/N38. Source-code audit engine.js enters at signal bar close, exits when closes cease exceeding20prior closes, uses bar low/high exact stop/target, zero explicitfee/slippage, includes current partialday; bars.js singlepage only. Therefore this gross fullsample CLI output cannot validate our20dayHIGH/10dayLOW next-open net3R rule and is not OOS. Positiveheadline returns rejected as deployment evidence. Chronological costed daily/hourly matched-input vectorbt study recorded separately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest/{engine,strategies,bars}.js. Validity: measures implemented CLI. Soundness for cash deployment fails execution/cost/window premises.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Startstate account850.99/fund178.71, zeroopenlots/queuedorders/closedtrades. Goal affordableprimarydatedeventlongoptionwithmultipayoff; bindingconstraintisvalidateddirectionalpayoff,notfundmonthlyprofitneed349.01. 2. Newstudies40eventobservations across4names: PLAY12,VRA12,SFIX8,TCOM8; preservedMLKN1/8andHITI1/9. Positivestockproxyholdouts TCOM6.6705%,VRA5.3590%,SFIX9.4730%eachN2 do notoverrulefailedoptiongate. 3. Risk caps normal3%=25.5297, conviction5%=42.5495,absolute6%=51.0594;fullpremiumatmostthreepositions andstrictlyunder18%aggregate. SizinghalfKelly0in measuredintrinsicfloorstress; realoptionexpectancyunknown. No targetcanbedefendedfromactualoptionhistory; target>=3Rnet wouldrequire4xpremiumgross whenfullpremiumisrisk. 4. Noorderorstock/crypto substitution; marketclosedRTHoptionscannotqueue. Defaultpre-eventexits PLAYSep11,VRA/TCOMSep14,SFIXSep22 unlessfutureexplicitmedianexception. Monitors256–261saved; existing192/199collectorsactualENDverified; newcollector testedboth20002:22:29END then scheduledseparatelyafternamevalidationretry. 5. Factsendatprimarydates,financialsandbarhistories; futureprice/volatility/feesunmodeled. Cash178.71isreasonedrejection, notclaimnothingelseinthewholemarketcanwork. Missing645bars/384specialsymbols,incompletecalendars,BB8-eventtiming andTCOMJulyterms named. No newfund warranted.

Start: crypto235.86cash/account850.99, no open/pending/closing lots; final query_trades confirms sole priorclosedBTCoperatorliquidation, not a usable live-edge sample. Goal: repeatable positive executable payoff. Binding constraint: active validated entry, currently absent. Premises1 all36USDpairs lack a20-close breakout; BTC/ETH/SOL completedhour below20dayhigh82233.50/2565.90/110.5357. Premises2 net3R/trail study2468-70: 15min holdouts-2.4724/+22.1719/-9.5841%, same-targetstress-3.8283/+20.7145/-10.8411%,N7/6/7; dailyallnegative and ETH30dayneighbor-20.0143. Premise3 reusedsamples, quoteexecution and off-run dynamictrail unverified; first remote201/202ENDs confirm collection, not execution. Conclusion zeroorders/exitmoves,235.86cash. Empirical cash-only log-growthKelly0/1/0; half0/.5/0 gives hypotheticalfullETH117.93 andquarterprobe29.4825, actual0. Binary-average matrixKellyscores are riskunits, not wealthfractions (2143). Normalriskceiling25.5297/account25%positioncap212.7475 are ceilings. No position created to meet349.01monthlyshortfall. Strongestcounterargument: cashmissesfat-tailupside; a frozenstrategy still needs its own signal, and changing lookback afterseeingreturns manufacturesconviction. Who benefits: preservingcapital keeps futurevalidatedtrades possible; brokerage fees reward turnover regardlessedge. Consequences: absententry -> no paidfriction -> capitalavailable atnextverifiedsignal, with explicit opportunitycost. Research72costedcells,60000scenario paths,166UScrypto-relatedinstruments from13209directorynames,limitedJPY/EURforeignproxies; no separatefundcase. Monitor246resolved/25504UTCarmed;201/202through04:01actualreceiptsverified,14/25anddated181/104/152preserved. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .

Premises: (1) New NEOV/TBN/CNXC primary dates require repeat checks, with no automatic order. (2) Catalyst has five active jobs; sixth scheduling attempt rejected. (3) Combined 3500-character script locally completed at02:22:23 UTC with END5, preserving SRRK/SCHL/PRAX RSS and SRRK latest8-K while adding NEOV public published posts, TBN calendar/RSS and CNXC SEC. Conclusion: cancelled67 only after combined local test passed, then scheduled205 at120minutes for48runs/90seconds. Acceptance is not execution receipt. New cadence is faster but shorter lifetime than old480minute74runs; handoff must renew afterfourdays if still needed. Positive date/cash update requires full original and independent costed validation; adverse/early/missing requires reverify/cash. No order authorized. Limitations: latest3SECforms can omit older relevant8Ks; RSS absence is not pending-status evidence; source errors print explicitly. Primary URLs https://neovolta.com/press-releases ; https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/rss ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001803599.json ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml .

Numberedpremises:1 finalquery_tradesfund=supplyopen/pending/closingall[];account850.99,fund278.67,poscap212.7475. TwopastforcedwinsN2cannotcalibratelosses(2465). 2 Directory-wideUSscreen2389covered12584/13176snapshots,1565qualifyingfreshnames;foreign2394valid14equitiesnosignal,KAPinvalid;9cryptopairsnophysicalrentedgeidentified. Currentlistingscreenisnotbacktestedfactoralpha. 3 Fundamentals2393/2411/2430/2464:VISThaspaidexportcashbutworkingcapital/oilassumptions;SWKSApple67%;LEUcostgrowth>price;ALMrecoverycashunknown. Sources https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4127/000000412725000085/swks-20251003.htm ; https://investors.centrusenergy.com/node/21021 . 4 Frozenbacktests2417-22 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars : VISTtrain-29.4389%,currententrytruebuttraininghalfKelly0;SWKSstressholdout-5.2136%,QRVOtrain-17.4599%;CCJtrain10.3548/test12.4681/stress3.4066 butsignalfalse;LPGtest47.4497/stress34.7587 but54.41<55.20 and15min/dividendgap. LEUfalseentry/traincompoundnegative;ALM293/SKHY44barscannotmatchhistoricaltraining. 5 Simulations2426-28 cannotjustifyroundingquarterprobe19.15LPG/8.79CCJup to54.41/97.42whole shares;allactualsize0. Conclusion noorders/noexitchanges;cashchosenbecausevalidatedpayoff+currententry+executionnotjointlymet,notproofmarketslackedge. Logicalconditionalvalidity;primaryperiods/smallselectedsampleslimit soundnessofanypositiveforecast. StrongcounterargumentpositiveVISTholdout22.78andcurrentbreakout insufficienttorewritefailedtrainingafterseeingit. Next04UTCmonitors251-254,job204newshortlist+preservedtankers,200existingphysicalpanels. No separatebookcase justified;allcredibleworkfitssupply. Funding349.01shortfall notinput.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Primary Nasdaq listing census13176non-testunique;384nonstandardstrings excluded fromAPI,12792requested,12147dailybars,645missing. FoursecondaryweeklycalendarsSep14–Oct5 produced147USlistedleads,allpriced; calendarcoverageincomplete andestimateddatescorrectedfromissuer. 31distinctoptioncatalogs probed, notall13176fullyeventtested. 2. BB S7.54 Oct2C8 .40/P7 .32 require +/-11.405836%;closerP7.5 .52 costs52>51.0594. Historicaltimingpagesempty200/429andtimeout; verifiedsamekindN<8,coverageunknown, no3xexpectedpayout. Cutaccessworkat~20min. ABAT S2.56 C3 .15 needs23.046875%;P3 .57failscap; Aug20preliminaryresultsalreadypublic,futureearningsdateunverified. MANUC25 .35/S20.02 needs26.6234%; RZLTC7.5 .24/S4.17 needs85.6115%; noverified8eventedge. 3. Foreignwatch8quotes includes9961.HK,7203.T,SAP.DE,NXT.L,TLX.AX,BTC,ETH,SOL; sample notglobalcensus. TCOMoffersUSlistedglobaldatedexposure;NXT.Lcatalogerror,TLXnoOctcontracts. Crypto nativeoptionsnotoffered; IBIT/ETHA affordablelegs lackprimarydatedsamekind8eventstudy, no spot substitute. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-14 ; option_contracts and venuebars; https://blackberry-1000581.suite.accessnewswire.com/ ; https://investors.americanbatterytechnology.com/ . 4. Incomplete evidence isuntested not0%winrate. Cashchosenbecausevalidatedpayoffabsent,notbecausebroadmarketslackvolatility. Noorder, no newfund justified.

Frozen20-day high breakout,10-day low exit,2ATR14 risk,20-day timeout; next actual open, one entry event per completed signal bar. Target solves net3R at25bp credited-asset fees/10bp slip; +2R full-position breakeven and2ATR absolute trailing, fixed target retained. Premise1 2024-25 training 15min checks 25.62842%, N12; reused2026Jan1-Sep11 02UTC holdout -9.58405%, DD33.33683%, win28.57143%, N7. Premise2 same-target20bp execution stress -10.84106%; daily proxy -8.21636%, hourly -10.30837%. Premise3 holdout mean-0.93862%, average win/loss14.14102/6.97047%, bootstrap mean CI[-7.59504,7.07430] crosses0. No current daily/hourly trigger. Controls: 15min no-trail return-13.26002%; 10/30day neighbors 10:13.97911% N8, 30:-18.04225% N6; retain20, do not select after outcomes. Conclusion reject deployment, negative principal holdouts . Validity conditional on rule/cost arithmetic; all raw trade wealth matches vectorbt. Soundness limited by reused small samples, missing/zero-volume bars, and unverified live quotes/off-run dynamic trail. Previous fixed gross3R study2379-81 is a different policy, not contradicted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Frozen20-day high breakout,10-day low exit,2ATR14 risk,20-day timeout; next actual open, one entry event per completed signal bar. Target solves net3R at25bp credited-asset fees/10bp slip; +2R full-position breakeven and2ATR absolute trailing, fixed target retained. Premise1 2024-25 training 15min checks 76.33020%, N19; reused2026Jan1-Sep11 02UTC holdout 22.17185%, DD20.05111%, win66.66667%, N6. Premise2 same-target20bp execution stress 20.71455%; daily proxy -17.63247%, hourly 17.24044%. Premise3 holdout mean3.56329%, average win/loss6.88094/3.07202%, bootstrap mean CI[-0.80182,8.55214] crosses0. No current daily/hourly trigger. Controls: 15min no-trail return18.74207%; 10/30day neighbors 10:14.16928% N8, 30:-20.01429% N6; retain20, do not select after outcomes. Conclusion retain research watch; daily failure, neighboring30day failure and absent entry bar deployment . Validity conditional on rule/cost arithmetic; all raw trade wealth matches vectorbt. Soundness limited by reused small samples, missing/zero-volume bars, and unverified live quotes/off-run dynamic trail. Previous fixed gross3R study2379-81 is a different policy, not contradicted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Frozen20-day high breakout,10-day low exit,2ATR14 risk,20-day timeout; next actual open, one entry event per completed signal bar. Target solves net3R at25bp credited-asset fees/10bp slip; +2R full-position breakeven and2ATR absolute trailing, fixed target retained. Premise1 2024-25 training 15min checks 9.17702%, N21; reused2026Jan1-Sep11 02UTC holdout -2.47243%, DD22.49195%, win42.85714%, N7. Premise2 same-target20bp execution stress -3.82831%; daily proxy -3.35527%, hourly -3.62887%. Premise3 holdout mean-0.12225%, average win/loss6.54923/5.12586%, bootstrap mean CI[-4.94790,5.23893] crosses0. No current daily/hourly trigger. Controls: 15min no-trail return-2.81737%; 10/30day neighbors 10:4.81000% N8, 30:-15.25060% N7; retain20, do not select after outcomes. Conclusion reject deployment, negative principal holdouts . Validity conditional on rule/cost arithmetic; all raw trade wealth matches vectorbt. Soundness limited by reused small samples, missing/zero-volume bars, and unverified live quotes/off-run dynamic trail. Previous fixed gross3R study2379-81 is a different policy, not contradicted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. PLAY weakvisits -> lowerstorecash -> reducednewstore/vendororders -> landlordsandcreditorscapturemorecash; countercasefoodgrowth/turnaroundstabilizevisits. 2. VRAimprovedsellthrough -> lessinventorycashlocked -> reinvestbrand/distribution -> supplierandshareholderrecovery; countercasepromotiondependentgrowthreversesmargin. 3. SFIXclientgrowth -> betterfixedcostabsorption -> largerFCF/buybackcapacity -> equityrerating; countercasehigheradspend/returnsconsumeincrementalrevenue. 4. TCOMregulatoryconstraints -> lowermerchanttakeorcompliancecost -> hotelbargainingpower -> marginmixandcrossbordercapitalallocationchange; fullJulydecisionunread so no assertednewlaw effect. Sources/baselines: https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-limited-reports-unaudited-first-quarter-2026 These are conditional first/second/thirdordereffects, not measured probabilities. Factsstopatreportedfinancials;pricedimprovementandmarketreactionunknown. Allfourstrikesfaildirectionalcoverage; no crosscompanycorrelation assumedindependent and no order.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Baselines: PLAY: June15 issuer Q1FY26: revenue559.2m(-1.5%);comps-5.4%;NI5.7mvs21.7;AdjEBITDA123.2mvs136.1;adjustedFCF25.3mvs-58.8 includes landlordpayments/saleleasebackproceeds; liquidity499.1mincludesrevolver. Entertainment345.1vs366.6m;food214.1vs201.1m. Management positivecompsremainderFY/FCF>100m forecasts. Issuerclosestfinancialsource, promotional framing; periodQ1 notcurrentquarter. https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results VRA: June11 issuer Q1FY27: revenue55.7mvs51.7(+7.8%);directcomps+13.4%;GM51.8%vs44.1GAAP/47.5adjusted;SG&A34.1m61.3%revenue,adjusted32.7m58.8%;oploss4.6mvs17.9,adjusted3.3vs13.6;cash12.5m,noABLborrow;inventory73mvs99.2;capex.3mvs1.9. FYrevenue255–270m forecast,adjustedoplossimprovement>=50%from21.7m. Issuerprimary, turnaroundframing; historicalsample hasbusinessregimechanges. https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results SFIX: June10 issuer Q3endedMay2: revenue340.3m+4.7%;clients2.309m,+.9%QoQ/-1.9%YoY;revenue/client578+6.6%;GM43.7%-50bp;netloss1.5m;AdjEBITDA13.2m;CFO11.8m/FCF6.5m;buybacks15.1m4.5mshares;cash+investments229.4m,no debt. Balance cash87.336m,shortinvestments99.478,long42.586m. Q4guide322–327mrev,AdjEBITDA7–10m. Primaryfinancials managementpositiveframing; forecastnotoutcome. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx TCOM: June24 issuer Q1FY26: revenue16.2bnRMB+17%;internationalgrossbookings+65%,inbound+90%;costrevenue+23%,marketing+25%;NI2.5bnvs4.3;AdjEBITDA4.8vs4.2;adjustedNI3.9vs4.2;cash+restricted+investments104bn notcashalone. Q2growth3–8% preliminaryforecast alreadypublic. JanuarySAMRinvestigation describedJune butJuly25penaltyheadline inissuerindex meansJuneongoingstatusnotcurrent; fullJulytermsunrecovered. OneADS=oneordinary. Primaryissuerpositivebias. https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-limited-reports-unaudited-first-quarter-2026 2. PLAY's weakcomps arebearish, but improvedcash partlyfinancinglikeproceeds, requiringseparation; VRA's improvingcomps andlowerinventory counterbear extrapolation. SFIXclientsstilldownYoY butsequentialgrowth/debtfreecashcounterdistress; buybacks15.1m exceedquarterFCF6.5m by8.6m. TCOMbookinggrowthoutpacesprofit, butregulatorytermsJulygap prevents currentfinevaluation. 3. No verifiedcurrentEV/sharecount orfullyadjustedearningsmultiples built, so valuationunknown ratherthancheapasserted. Beneficiaries: landlordsfinancePLAY, customersandvendorsbenefitfromturnaroundspending;shareholdersneedcashafterreinvestment. These facts do notsatisfyoptionpayoffgate; counterexamplesrewriteone-sidedbearprior. Noorder.

query_trades fund=supply readthisrun: ids6/3 bothSep2entries/Sep4operatorliquidation;return3.805163%/.752257%,mean2.27871%,PnL4.977287USD,N2wins100%. No losses and forcedexitconfound original6-8weektheses; cannotestimateaverage loss,stop/targethitfrequencyor reliableKelly. Entrystopnull andnofreshentryquote preventsconsistentR/slippageestimation. No claim100%winrateisedge. Finalopen/pending/closingqueriesall[];noholdinghorizonorreviewexitchanges. Independentcostedbacktestsratherthanthissampleguidesize,subjectselection/periodlimitations.

1 Q2issuer https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf weightedaverageshares108.909959m,EBITDA805.2m,netdebt3056.8m,exdealFCF491m includes274.2mWCrelease. 2 SIPSep10close78.95 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . UsingweightedsharesasaPROXY gives equity8598.44m/EV11655.24m,annualizedQ2EBITDA3220.8m =>3.619x. This isnotverifiedcurrentdilutedmarketcapitalizationor forwardmultiple. 3 Annualized(exdealFCFminusWCrelease)867.2m =>proxyyield10.086%; quarterlynormalizationnotforecast,capex/acquisitions/declinesmayvary. 4 Oilprice-15USD/bbl atconstant135427bpd365days loses741.46m grossannualrevenue;ASSUME60%flowstocashaftercost/taxresponse=>444.88mcashloss,yield4.912%. Actualroyalties/hedges/reinvestmentnotfullymodeled. Conclusion valuationcanlookattractivebutoil/capacity/cashassumptionsdominate;doesnotrepairnegative trainingmean orauthorize95.68target. Hardlimitold144kbpdpipeline+37truckingnotallfungible,andcustomerconcentrationcaninterruptpayment. Factsendatissuer/price;allannualization,shareproxy,constantvolumes,60%flowthroughareexplicitassumptions. Requirescurrentcapitalizationandnormalizedforecastbeforefundamentalpricedtarget.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. September10 SIPadjustmentall close, Wilder14 RSI/ATR,20/50SMA and20day annualizedlogRV calculatedon925dailybars from2023. [{"symbol":"PLAY","S":8.17,"SMA20":9.462499999999999,"SMA50":10.0246,"RSI14":35.73768198709139,"ATR14":0.5767722089866175,"prior20low":8.045,"prior20high":11.1,"RV20_ann_pct":69.80237704694696},{"symbol":"TCOM","S":38.7,"SMA20":43.9245,"SMA50":43.9968,"RSI14":22.724174520833685,"ATR14":1.0784470869839355,"prior20low":39,"prior20high":46.665,"RV20_ann_pct":29.064910855065957},{"symbol":"VRA","S":3.05,"SMA20":3.2239999999999993,"SMA50":3.4952000000000005,"RSI14":38.175466344680615,"ATR14":0.16408705048172534,"prior20low":3.04,"prior20high":3.47,"RV20_ann_pct":51.83765867720069},{"symbol":"SFIX","S":2.85,"SMA20":3.1922499999999996,"SMA50":3.600799999999999,"RSI14":29.483216244943506,"ATR14":0.1491626120601394,"prior20low":2.88,"prior20high":3.775,"RV20_ann_pct":41.72599346668795}] 2. Allbelow20/50SMA; TCOM38.70 belowprior20low39 andSFIX2.85 below2.88; oversoldRSI22.72/29.48 cancontinue orreverse. No prediction assigned from descriptiveconfluence. 3. Range/RSI is not an eventmove distribution and cannot substitute for8samekindevents or executableoptionbacktest. Counterexampleoversoldbounces harmputs. Targets wouldneed>=4xpremium gross for3Rnet fullpremiumrisk, and empiricalmedians do notsupportthepurchasedstrikes. No stop/target invented for rejected orders.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Map historic eventclose returns tocurrentS; putintrinsic=max(K-Snext,0), dividepremium; residual timevalue unmodeled, so this is a stressfloor NOT expected traded-option price. 2. NumPy seed911,10000iid20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; no optionfees or serialdependence, no forecasts beyond empiricalsample. [{"symbol":"PLAY","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.11141982422518588,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.9413206521739124,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-41.95744298289101,"p05_return":-44.955033349458404,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":41.95744298289101},{"symbol":"TCOM","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.48520541234206205,"max_intrinsic_multiple":2.408972282217414,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-28.24022154569934,"p05_return":-38.907738008078596,"profit_odds":0.0073,"median_max_drawdown":29.4653494506684},{"symbol":"VRA","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.028368794326241547,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.34042553191489855,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-44.46945633168682,"p05_return":-45.62056570732529,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":44.46945633168682},{"symbol":"SFIX","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.9535745761978892,"max_intrinsic_multiple":5.165333333333332,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-6.249441441107351,"p05_return":-31.98054166018457,"profit_odds":0.3921,"median_max_drawdown":20.17009498600003}] 3. Gridlogutility fullKelly0 for all floor distributions; halfKelly0. SFIX has one5.1653xgross scenario but mean.95357x, insufficient documented3xexpectedpayout. Countercase residualtimevalue raises actualreturns, but magnitude unverified. Tail dependence and capital depletion could worsen stress. Current allocation0; account absolute premiumcap51.0594, normal25.5297, conviction42.5495; three51.0594premiums exactly18%, so use strictlyless if absolute caps ever bind.