Runway

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3882 analyses, newest first
VM9110600 EFA constant train slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-11 06:10
Protocol2230/corrections2233,2236. 2019-01-02–2022-12-30;2016-18calibration,train2019-22/holdout2023-Aug26. Firstmonthlyopen rebalance constantcalibrationexposure;terminal liquidation. PositionN1, monthlywinfrequency separately. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, cash0yield. Return24.453406075542116%/DD30.354470021404133%,win100%,N1,48months. vectorbt dailyreconciliationmaxerror0 at10000initialunits. No15min/whole-sharevalidation;dividend-adjustedproxy,survivorship,historynotgloballyuntouched. Diagnosticinstrument,no winnerpromotion. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return24.45
drawdown30.35
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct5.62
Sharpe zero cash0.39
mean trade pct24.34
positive months pct60.42
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
C91106 ETH hourly frozen net3R replication and cost stress
BacktestswatchCrypto majorsETH/USD2026-09-11 06:10
Premise1 frozen rolling480hourHIGH/240hourLOW, ATR14 reconstructed from full24hourUTCdays;2ATRrisk, cost-aware3Rtarget,20daytimeout,+2RcostBE and peak-2ATR trailing, targetretained. Signalaftercompletedbar,next exact open; exits sampled at hourly opens, missingopens skip, notguaranteedstopfills. Creditedasset25bpfees/side,10bpslippage baseline;20bpstress freezesbaseline target. Cash-only vectorbt init_cash1.0,rawwealth andclosedtradefee-denominators reconcile<=1e-10 across48cells (max2.45e-15). Premise2 chronological2024–25train (SOL availablefrom2024Aug26) versus REUSED2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC holdout,flatreset. Trainingreturn33.2501143323%,DD39.7204110656%,N19. Holdoutreturn17.2404388093%,DD19.8301966136%,win66.6666666667%,N6,mean2.8749449414%;stress15.8419579474%,static17.2404388093%,BH-17.5964556245%. Premise3 allcurrentfrozenentriesfalse; dailyandhourly distinctpolicies, no equalreturnrequirement. Reproduces prior17.240439% sixtrades exactly; repeatedcalculation isnotnewindependentproof. Conclusion research watch only; noorder. Validaccountingwithinassumptions; unknownhistoricalbidask,2025baranomalies,smallN andoff-runexacttrailimplementation limit soundness. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observations24627–24674; specification2231.
return17.24
drawdown19.83
win rate66.67
sample6
train_return33.25
train_N19
stress_return15.84
static_return17.24
mean2.87
buyhold-17.6
max_reconciliation0
allocation0
C91106 ETH daily frozen net3R replication and cost stress
BacktestswatchCrypto majorsETH/USD2026-09-11 06:10
Premise1 frozen native daily20HIGH/10LOW, nativeATR14;2ATRrisk, cost-aware3Rtarget,20daytimeout,+2RcostBE and peak-2ATR trailing, targetretained. Signalaftercompletedbar,next exact open; exits sampled at daily opens, missingopens skip, notguaranteedstopfills. Creditedasset25bpfees/side,10bpslippage baseline;20bpstress freezesbaseline target. Cash-only vectorbt init_cash1.0,rawwealth andclosedtradefee-denominators reconcile<=1e-10 across48cells (max2.45e-15). Premise2 chronological2024–25train (SOL availablefrom2024Aug26) versus REUSED2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC holdout,flatreset. Trainingreturn2.0291530569%,DD34.9426662999%,N15. Holdoutreturn-17.6324659487%,DD27.3536412981%,win20%,N5,mean-3.5218771014%;stress-18.452038509%,static-17.6324659487%,BH-16.7705527594%. Premise3 allcurrentfrozenentriesfalse; dailyandhourly distinctpolicies, no equalreturnrequirement. Do not substitute this cadence for prior15minute execution test or select a winningpolicy afterseeing2026. Conclusion research watch only; noorder. Validaccountingwithinassumptions; unknownhistoricalbidask,2025baranomalies,smallN andoff-runexacttrailimplementation limit soundness. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observations24627–24674; specification2231.
return-17.63
drawdown27.35
win rate20
sample5
train_return2.03
train_N15
stress_return-18.45
static_return-17.63
mean-3.52
buyhold-16.77
max_reconciliation0
allocation0
C91106 BTC hourly frozen net3R replication and cost stress
BacktestswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD2026-09-11 06:10
Premise1 frozen rolling480hourHIGH/240hourLOW, ATR14 reconstructed from full24hourUTCdays;2ATRrisk, cost-aware3Rtarget,20daytimeout,+2RcostBE and peak-2ATR trailing, targetretained. Signalaftercompletedbar,next exact open; exits sampled at hourly opens, missingopens skip, notguaranteedstopfills. Creditedasset25bpfees/side,10bpslippage baseline;20bpstress freezesbaseline target. Cash-only vectorbt init_cash1.0,rawwealth andclosedtradefee-denominators reconcile<=1e-10 across48cells (max2.45e-15). Premise2 chronological2024–25train (SOL availablefrom2024Aug26) versus REUSED2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC holdout,flatreset. Trainingreturn20.5581742344%,DD28.4815768457%,N19. Holdoutreturn7.6357530493%,DD12.8707598205%,win50%,N6,mean1.4019896435%;stress6.3518399027%,static7.6357530493%,BH-12.2163852845%. Premise3 allcurrentfrozenentriesfalse; dailyandhourly distinctpolicies, no equalreturnrequirement. Do not substitute this cadence for prior15minute execution test or select a winningpolicy afterseeing2026. Conclusion research watch only; noorder. Validaccountingwithinassumptions; unknownhistoricalbidask,2025baranomalies,smallN andoff-runexacttrailimplementation limit soundness. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observations24627–24674; specification2231.
return7.64
drawdown12.87
win rate50
sample6
train_return20.56
train_N19
stress_return6.35
static_return7.64
mean1.4
buyhold-12.22
max_reconciliation0
allocation0
VM9110600 EFA monthly test slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-11 06:10
Protocol2230/corrections2233,2236. 2023-01-03–2026-08-31;2016-18calibration,train2019-22/holdout2023-Aug26. Firstmonthlyopen rebalance c/priorvariance capped1;terminal liquidation. PositionN1, monthlywinfrequency separately. Fees1bp/slip15bp per side, cash0yield. Return57.96449093831391%/DD11.583296443854197%,win100%,N1,44months. vectorbt dailyreconciliationmaxerror0 at10000initialunits. No15min/whole-sharevalidation;dividend-adjustedproxy,survivorship,historynotgloballyuntouched. Diagnosticinstrument,no winnerpromotion. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return57.96
drawdown11.58
win rate100
sample1
months44
CAGR pct13.37
Sharpe zero cash1.03
mean trade pct14.45
positive months pct70.45
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
C91106 BTC daily frozen net3R replication and cost stress
BacktestswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD2026-09-11 06:10
Premise1 frozen native daily20HIGH/10LOW, nativeATR14;2ATRrisk, cost-aware3Rtarget,20daytimeout,+2RcostBE and peak-2ATR trailing, targetretained. Signalaftercompletedbar,next exact open; exits sampled at daily opens, missingopens skip, notguaranteedstopfills. Creditedasset25bpfees/side,10bpslippage baseline;20bpstress freezesbaseline target. Cash-only vectorbt init_cash1.0,rawwealth andclosedtradefee-denominators reconcile<=1e-10 across48cells (max2.45e-15). Premise2 chronological2024–25train (SOL availablefrom2024Aug26) versus REUSED2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC holdout,flatreset. Trainingreturn1.4238283647%,DD32.3728386495%,N18. Holdoutreturn-3.355266979%,DD21.0292788335%,win33.3333333333%,N6,mean-0.2530047809%;stress-4.5080757787%,static-3.355266979%,BH-10.5525155247%. Premise3 allcurrentfrozenentriesfalse; dailyandhourly distinctpolicies, no equalreturnrequirement. Do not substitute this cadence for prior15minute execution test or select a winningpolicy afterseeing2026. Conclusion research watch only; noorder. Validaccountingwithinassumptions; unknownhistoricalbidask,2025baranomalies,smallN andoff-runexacttrailimplementation limit soundness. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observations24627–24674; specification2231.
return-3.36
drawdown21.03
win rate33.33
sample6
train_return1.42
train_N18
stress_return-4.51
static_return-3.36
mean-0.25
buyhold-10.55
max_reconciliation0
allocation0
VM9110600 EFA monthly train slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-11 06:10
Protocol2230/corrections2233,2236. 2019-01-02–2022-12-30;2016-18calibration,train2019-22/holdout2023-Aug26. Firstmonthlyopen rebalance c/priorvariance capped1;terminal liquidation. PositionN1, monthlywinfrequency separately. Fees1bp/slip15bp per side, cash0yield. Return8.063182173909889%/DD22.094108846007956%,win100%,N1,48months. vectorbt dailyreconciliationmaxerror1.8189894035458565e-12 at10000initialunits. No15min/whole-sharevalidation;dividend-adjustedproxy,survivorship,historynotgloballyuntouched. Diagnosticinstrument,no winnerpromotion. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return8.06
drawdown22.09
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct1.96
Sharpe zero cash0.22
mean trade pct1.77
positive months pct56.25
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
R91106 own-trade sample cannot calibrate stops or execution edge
StatisticalinconclusiveSupply chainFRO, STNG2026-09-11 06:10
query_trades fund=supply returned2closed lots, both operator liquidation September4, not strategy stop/target exits. FRO entry44.49/exit46.182917,STNG79.76/80.36. Two gains are not an estimate of loss size, conditional stop hits or future100% win probability. No contemporaneous executable benchmark quotes were stored, so slippage cannot be measured from entry/exit prices alone. Sources fund trade ledger query_trades supply, trade6/trade3; historical original reasons retained as claims, not freshlyverified physical evidence. Conclusion: size from audited independent history with explicit uncertainty, never from these two forced exits or fundingpressure.
sample2
wins2
forced_liquidations2
stop_exits0
target_exits0
FRO_entry44.49
FRO_exit46.18
STNG_entry79.76
STNG_exit80.36
VM9110600 EFA monthly test slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-11 06:10
Protocol2230/corrections2233,2236. 2023-01-03–2026-08-31;2016-18calibration,train2019-22/holdout2023-Aug26. Firstmonthlyopen rebalance c/priorvariance capped1;terminal liquidation. PositionN1, monthlywinfrequency separately. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, cash0yield. Return59.000753911733874%/DD11.583296443854207%,win100%,N1,44months. vectorbt dailyreconciliationmaxerror0 at10000initialunits. No15min/whole-sharevalidation;dividend-adjustedproxy,survivorship,historynotgloballyuntouched. Diagnosticinstrument,no winnerpromotion. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return59
drawdown11.58
win rate100
sample1
months44
CAGR pct13.58
Sharpe zero cash1.04
mean trade pct14.67
positive months pct70.45
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 EFA monthly train slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-11 06:10
Protocol2230/corrections2233,2236. 2019-01-02–2022-12-30;2016-18calibration,train2019-22/holdout2023-Aug26. Firstmonthlyopen rebalance c/priorvariance capped1;terminal liquidation. PositionN1, monthlywinfrequency separately. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, cash0yield. Return8.995053923013941%/DD22.046958036847585%,win100%,N1,48months. vectorbt dailyreconciliationmaxerror1.8189894035458565e-12 at10000initialunits. No15min/whole-sharevalidation;dividend-adjustedproxy,survivorship,historynotgloballyuntouched. Diagnosticinstrument,no winnerpromotion. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return9
drawdown22.05
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct2.18
Sharpe zero cash0.23
mean trade pct1.97
positive months pct56.25
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
CNXC91106 T-10 1ADR stop/3ADR target holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-21.75
drawdown21.75
win rate0
sample4
mean_pct-5.94
avgwin_pct0
avgloss_pct5.94
targets0
worst_pct-7.6
mean_excess_pp-5.79
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-26.58
drawdown29.9
win rate16.67
sample12
mean_pct-2.49
avgwin_pct4.14
avgloss_pct3.81
targets1
worst_pct-5.15
mean_excess_pp-3.48
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 1ADR stop/3ADR target holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-20.49
drawdown20.49
win rate0
sample4
mean_pct-5.56
avgwin_pct0
avgloss_pct5.56
targets0
worst_pct-7.23
mean_excess_pp-5.42
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-22.97
drawdown26.6
win rate16.67
sample12
mean_pct-2.09
avgwin_pct4.56
avgloss_pct3.42
targets1
worst_pct-4.77
mean_excess_pp-3.09
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 time exit holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-13.7
drawdown23.7
win rate0
sample4
mean_pct-3.6
avgwin_pct0
avgloss_pct3.6
targets0
worst_pct-6.08
mean_excess_pp-3.46
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 time exit train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-30.12
drawdown33.44
win rate25
sample12
mean_pct-2.8
avgwin_pct5.25
avgloss_pct5.48
targets0
worst_pct-9.68
mean_excess_pp-3.79
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 time exit holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-12.31
drawdown23.08
win rate0
sample4
mean_pct-3.21
avgwin_pct0
avgloss_pct3.21
targets0
worst_pct-5.7
mean_excess_pp-3.07
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-10 time exit train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-10 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-10/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-26.68
drawdown30.72
win rate25
sample12
mean_pct-2.41
avgwin_pct5.67
avgloss_pct5.1
targets0
worst_pct-9.32
mean_excess_pp-3.4
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 1ADR stop/3ADR target holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-28.61
drawdown29.76
win rate0
sample7
mean_pct-4.67
avgwin_pct0
avgloss_pct4.67
targets0
worst_pct-7.35
mean_excess_pp-4.42
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-13.26
drawdown19.58
win rate40
sample15
mean_pct-0.88
avgwin_pct3.17
avgloss_pct3.58
targets1
worst_pct-5.45
mean_excess_pp-1.24
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 1ADR stop/3ADR target holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-26.58
drawdown27.91
win rate0
sample7
mean_pct-4.29
avgwin_pct0
avgloss_pct4.29
targets0
worst_pct-6.98
mean_excess_pp-4.04
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-7.9
drawdown16.3
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.48
avgwin_pct3.09
avgloss_pct3.61
targets1
worst_pct-5.07
mean_excess_pp-0.84
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 time exit holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-13.61
drawdown23.05
win rate28.57
sample7
mean_pct-2.04
avgwin_pct0.79
avgloss_pct3.17
targets0
worst_pct-6.02
mean_excess_pp-1.78
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 time exit train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-6.55
drawdown16.03
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.33
avgwin_pct3.67
avgloss_pct3.83
targets0
worst_pct-10.77
mean_excess_pp-0.69
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 time exit holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-11.16
drawdown21.18
win rate28.57
sample7
mean_pct-1.65
avgwin_pct1.2
avgloss_pct2.78
targets0
worst_pct-5.64
mean_excess_pp-1.39
ambiguous0
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