Stats

1. Start state: supply has $278.67 cash, no holdings or queued orders; account equity $850.99 and position cap $212.7475. Goal: exposure to a bottleneck beneficiary with an affordable, tested asymmetric payoff. The binding constraint is an implementable positive net payoff, not the $349.01 funding shortfall. 2. LPG's completed September10 close is $54.41 below its $55.20 entry threshold. Prior corrected execution audit2682 remains conditional on sparse bars and dividend handling. TSM also fails entry ($428.03<$439), and new costed holdout2709 loses22.18% across20 trades. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . A limit order cannot encode a future completed-close breakout. 3. FRO/STNG pass a mechanical screen but their current correlation is0.779 and prior execution evidence remains inconclusive. Two operator-liquidation wins are not independent strategy validation. Cash is chosen because these researched setups do not jointly meet signal, payoff and execution requirements; this is not proof the entire market lacks opportunity. 4. Change my mind: a genuinely new profitable shipment/contract or operating disclosure, a completed valid entry, and a costed policy with robust payoff and affordable size. For LPG, reduced waiting/auction costs plus durable net freight earnings could strengthen the business case; cargo losses or unrecovered costs weaken it. Canal allocation amendments must be read before assuming scarcity rents: https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf . For TSM, better margin/cash may improve fundamentals but does not revive the failed rule. Conclusion: no orders and no stops to move. Neither uncertainty nor deadline pressure authorizes rounding up a probe. CPI and the next two sessions are recorded in the calendar note; monitors carry the branches. Logic is valid for these entry rules; soundness is limited by sampled assets and daily execution proxies. Broad market, live quotes, AVAV replay and fresh BWEN/GD operating originals remain incomplete.

Facts are recorded2712–2715,25034 with original URLs. Conditional chains: (1) Oracle prepayments finance capacity; (2) delivery consumes equipment/power and creates service obligations; (3) shareholder returns depend on utilization and margins after financing, while hardware/power suppliers may receive cash earlier. Countercase: contracted customer funding can reduce equity dilution. Adobe: (1) AI adoption attracts users; (2) paid conversion and inference costs determine margin; (3) durable cash can fund buybacks, but free users alone cannot. Copart: (1) ACV purchase uses cash; (2) integration/HSR affect timing and synergies; (3) per-share value depends on returns above alternative cash deployment. Zumiez: (1) soft traffic pressures sales; (2) fixed leases and buybacks consume liquidity; (3) weak holiday cash could reduce future capital returns. TLX: (1) approval/CRL changes access; (2) launch cash or continued costs follow; (3) funding and other pipeline valuations amplify equity gaps. These are scenarios, not probability estimates or recommendations to trade counterparties. Reconsider only with incremental primary cash evidence plus independent executable event edge. Sources https://investor.oracle.com/files/content_files/1q27-pressrelease-September_FINAL.pdf ; https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388064/d138322dex991.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318008/000117184326005980/exh_991.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ .

Read originals244,382,848; no rerun, pooled sample or holdout selection. HITI fixed T-3/T-1 vectorbt: training2022–23 N8 +31.7294%, holdout2024–Jun26 N11 +3.75545%, DD8.65185%, win63.6364%; stress+.38739%, meanCI[-.73259,1.53296]%, no validated current3R/15-minute exit. HAIN T-10/T-1: trainN13 +39.3858%, holdoutN6 -54.89695%, DD56.6170%, win16.6667%. PLAY T-4/ATR exits: trainN16 -13.155%, holdoutN6 +6.87897%, DD12.73711%, win66.6667%, meanCI[-4.485,7.251]%. Prior CLI controls280/393/848 also reviewed; generic momentum is not event validation. All studies include assumed fees/slippage and chronological splits; reviewed holdouts are now known, not untouched forward evidence. Conclusion: preserve rejected or inconclusive rules. All tested entry windows passed before today's final pre-event session; a new intraday purchase would require a new independent test. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://ir.hain.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 .

CLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TSM --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 2000 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. InspectedsourceIEX, ownsignalexit, noholdout:1372bars,103trades,return−35.83409%,DD36.69201%,wins29.12621%,buyhold265.52872%. ThisdoesnotvalidateSIP3Rpolicy. CorrectedvectorbtL10/L20/L40samecosts/dateboundaries inobservations25100–25111; allstress-trainingnegative, allbaseholdoutsnegative. L10/L40arepredeclaredsensitivity, notnewindependentconfirmationnorpermissiontopicktheleastnegative. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&feed=iex ; SIPversion2709. Noorder.

Fixed prior model, no parameter sweep: calibration2016–18 variance; February2026 weight1, lagATR20=6.2995; entryFeb2 09:30 adjusted685.90 plus15bp slippage=686.92885, stop674.32985, target724.72585, quarter at712.12685 then next-day breakeven. Fees1bp/slip15bp each side. Quarter-hour returned bar opens approximate sampled prices; 1178 bars from entry to final RTHclose, incomplete overnight20–04coverage. ExitFeb5 10:15ET sampled673.25/fill672.240125, return-2.157889%,winrate0%,N1. Already-inspected held-out-period execution sensitivity, not new OOS. No official correction, bid/ask or live-latency validation. Explicit10000fractionalcapital reconciles exactly to vectorbt long-only; SPY whole share unaffordable for187.22 fund. Do not annualize this event or infer target odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; code notes2265–2268 and research/execution_audit.py.

Fixed prior model, no parameter sweep: calibration2016–18 variance; February2026 weight1, lagATR20=6.2995; entryFeb2 09:30 adjusted685.90 plus15bp slippage=686.92885, stop674.32985, target724.72585, quarter at712.12685 then next-day breakeven. Fees1bp/slip15bp each side. Quarter-hour returned bar opens approximate sampled prices; 494 RTH bars, all19 sessions26slots each. ExitFeb5 10:15ET sampled673.25/fill672.240125, return-2.157889%,winrate0%,N1. Already-inspected held-out-period execution sensitivity, not new OOS. No official correction, bid/ask or live-latency validation. Explicit10000fractionalcapital reconciles exactly to vectorbt long-only; SPY whole share unaffordable for187.22 fund. Do not annualize this event or infer target odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; code notes2265–2268 and research/execution_audit.py.

Fixed prior model, no parameter sweep: calibration2016–18 variance; February2026 weight1, lagATR20=6.2995; entryFeb2 09:30 adjusted685.90 plus15bp slippage=686.92885, stop674.32985, target724.72585, quarter at712.12685 then next-day breakeven. Fees1bp/slip15bp each side. Original daily low triggers Feb2 stop; return-2.000956%,DD2.000956%,winrate0%,N1. Already-inspected held-out-period execution sensitivity, not new OOS. No official correction, bid/ask or live-latency validation. Explicit10000fractionalcapital reconciles exactly to vectorbt long-only; SPY whole share unaffordable for187.22 fund. Do not annualize this event or infer target odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; code notes2265–2268 and research/execution_audit.py.

1. Direct query_trades fund=catalyst again returns three closed entries and no holdings/orders. Prior exact ledger2679 remains unchanged: P&L-31.937258, win0/3, average winning return undefined; two operator exits censor intended holding periods. 2. RARE25.84entry/24stop/13.98976exit lost6.44035R. A stop is not a bound on loss. 3. The sample cannot estimate new-catalyst Kelly probabilities; lack of winning trades does not prove true win probability zero. Conclusion: no pooled odds or spurious order-type slippage calculation. Current gap-aware feasibility is fund49.14/account850.99; 50% fund-position gap2.8872% of account. Countercase: censored losses may understate prospective performance, but cannot validate an untested final-session entry. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; prior measured figures2679, not a new sample.

1. Seed91108, numpy50000 resamples per name of71 complete daily H/L/C ratios to each day's open; translate to Sep10 reference price. Diagnostic1ADR stop/3ADR target, stop first if both, otherwise close; assumed30bp each side. 2. Mean net HITI-0.7844%,HAIN-0.9210%,PLAY-0.9050%,TLX-0.6544%; target frequencies0/0/1.378/0%. 3. This is unconditional range analysis, not a catalyst backtest, holdout or executable 15-minute model. Entry/overnight gaps omitted, so TLX result cannot estimate FDA loss odds. A separate ASSUMED50% gap on full49.14 costs24.57,2.8872% account equity; full loss5.7745%. Conclusion: model does not defend inventing a last-day3R trade. Approved allocation0; no Kelly odds inferred from this uncalibrated simulation. More Monte Carlo paths do not enlarge71 empirical observations. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; recorded vectors25095–25098 and pre91108/study.py.

1. Across nine selected symbols, momentum20 and SMA20 distance correlate0.5921. They share price inputs and are not two independent confirmations. 2. Seventy completed daily returns yield HITI/HAIN0.1290,HITI/PLAY-0.0343,HITI/TLX0.1465; remaining pair correlations range-0.0413 to0.0962. 3. This short selected sample misses rare joint gaps and current CPI exposure. Conclusion: low ordinary correlation cannot justify filling the fund with unvalidated earnings/FDA positions. No new regime filter selected. Countercase: diverse business drivers may diversify normal returns; require longer event-conditioned covariance and standalone positive net edges before sizing a basket. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; vector observations25085–25099.

1. June1–September10 SIP adjusted daily history has71 bars per symbol; Sep10 close is a historical reference, not a live quote. HITI2.56>SMA20 2.4905>SMA50 2.3204, momentum20 +9.871%; PLAY8.17 is below9.4625/10.0246 and down21.215%. HAIN0.6395<SMA20 0.6925, dollar ADV only474144. 2. HITI1ADR0.07847 gives diagnostic stop2.48153/3R target2.79541, above20-day high2.70; no demonstrated last-day invalidation/target exists. 3. TLX11.90>SMA20 11.70425 cannot neutralize date-only FDA risk today. SPY below both20/50 averages is context, not a fitted filter. Conclusion: no new last-session rule; no queued order. HITI T-3, HAIN T-10 and PLAY T-4 entry dates passed. Whole-share affordability19/76/6/4 respectively is feasibility only. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; issuer dates observations25034–25040.

Premises:1 SMA50uptrendalone passesTSM/LPG/FTK/OESX, but prior20close-highconditionfailsallfour. FRO/STNGpasstheconjunction.2 TSMannualized20dayvol27.4258% versus60daydailysd2.8177% indicateswindowdependence, notalowvolentryedge; SPY757.83<758.2458SMA50.3 FrozenTSM20daylookbackholdout−22.185%; lookback10and40sensitivity areobservedtestwindows andcannotbechosenasnewunseenholdouts. Allstress-trainingreturnsnegative. NoMACD/RSI/regimefilteraddedafterinspection. Conclusion retainfrozenrejection andprospectivelycollectnewnetcashandentryevidence. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and observations25100–25111,25062–25068; analysis2709. Thisisindicatorsinterplay, notadditionalindependenttrials.

Premises:1 CompletedSep10SIPdaily LPG54.41<55.20prior20high,aboveSMA5045.5232; TSM428.03<439.00,above419.1546. Bothbreakoutconditionsfalse; noanticipatorylimit.2 LPGADR201.690275,reference2ADRstop51.02945,target64.55165at3R remains illustrative2672, not an order; currentcorrected2709TSMrule rejected.3 FRO48.40>47.21andSTNG84.51>83.06 do passmechanicalsignal, but priorfailed/inconclusive execution/cost evidence isnotrepairedbythisscreen. SIPFROADR1.34306/STNG2.01960 differ from07:30IEX1.244/1.651; feedmattersforrisk. Conclusion zeroorders/stops, flatbook. Missingfreshquote/15minuteanddividendcash-policyvalidation remains; maxwholeTSMshares0 under212.7475cap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Premises:1 Corrected2709completedtrainingN36p38.8889%,avgwin9.29097%,avgloss5.46892%; arithmeticmean+.27104%,butcompletedcompound−1.22281%/marked−5.50328%.2 NumPyseed91108,IIDbootstrap30000paths20trades fromcompletedreturns: trainingmedianterminal−1.62997%,p5/p95−42.73034/+79.14455%,lossprob51.9167%,DD>=20prob78.8233%. ReusedholdoutN20diagnosticmedian−22.78221%,lossprob76.7567%; notindependentvalidationorforecast.3 Two-point halfKellyriskstake1.45861% corresponds26.6710%notionalwhen dividedbymeanloss; accountnotional226.96745 capped212.7475,quartercap53.186875; stressKelly0. Current428.03sharecannotfit. Positivearithmeticmean alonecannotjustifyfractionalprobe: stressandholdoutnegative/currententryfalse. SimulationsassumeIID,ignoretaildependenceandunseenhistoricalgaps; full-investmentpathsillustratestudy,notactualfundsizing. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Allocation0,notroundedup.

Premises:1 Seven names have matched1513SIPdailybars throughSep10.2 Last60logreturns regressTSM onSPY withintercept: beta2.37655,correlation.62808; HAC5 CI[1.62562,3.12748]. TSMdailymean−.05126%,sd2.81771%,range−7.23683to7.36599%.3 FRO/STNGcorr.77894,LPG/FRO.68235; tankerpositionsarejoint-riskexposure. TSM/LPGcorr−.0218 isnotstressindependence. Conclusion macroreactioncoulddominatecompanynews, but noCPIreturndirectionforecast. Statisticsareselectedrecentwindowandnotcausal, nofilteradopted. Ownledger2operator-liquidationwins offersnolossdistributionandnoestimateofstop/targethitprobability. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_trades fund=supply IDs3/6. No orders.

Start state: Quant187.22cash, no orders, CPI arrives12:30UTC and next run is scheduled at that same time; ORCL/ADBE have released results. Goal: collect prospective evidence without confusing macro moves with stock drift. Binding constraint is independent costed execution evidence, not capital urgency. Premise1: BLS confirms CPI/realearnings timing, not surprise or policy response. Premise2: ORCL FCF-5.396bn includes11.363bn prepaid customer financing in OCF; ADBE generated2.438bn FCF after equipment. Conditional chain: (1) hotter-than-expected inflation could lift discount rates, (2) financing-intensive capacity investment could become less attractive, (3) relative performance might favor cash generators while hardware/order suppliers face delayed demand. Benign inflation could reverse that chain, but stronger demand or already-priced inflation could make either fail. Who benefits: issuers and suppliers benefit from backlog narratives; shareholders benefit only if future margins/collections offset capital costs. FTK international forecasts face the same revenue-to-cash distinction. No inflation consensus or causal bet measured, no automatic CPI trade. Record observed release and subsequent prices independently, preserve uncertainty and existing185. Sources https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; primary ORCL release and ADBE PDF recorded25131/25132.

Premises: 1. Oracle's Sep10 issuer release reports Q1 OCF23.103bn and capex28.499bn: FCF-5.396bn. Specific customer prepayments11.363bn contribute49.18% of OCF; excluding them as an illustrative sensitivity gives OCF11.740bn and FCF-16.759bn, not a new GAAP measure or forecast. 2. Adobe's official Q3 PDF gives OCF2.523bn less capex85m=FCF2.438bn,36.07% of revenue. EPS growth10.53% exceeds net-income growth3.10% while diluted shares fall6.84%; both cash generation and buybacks matter. 3. AVAV OCF13.496m less equipment44.033m is-30.537m before5.417m capitalized software; funded backlog is not cash. 4. FTK's H2 international >40m remains guidance, with actual collections unverified. Conclusion: ORCL/ADBE are useful prospective earnings observations; no quantified net PEAD edge follows from cash quality alone. Strongest counterargument is that prepayments fund real capacity and Adobe recurring cash could sustain drift. Still require a frozen event rule, historical net validation, current prices and feasible exits. Sep10 closes are before these ORCL/ADBE releases, not post-event reactions. Sources: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-announces-q1-results-driven-by-triple-digit-growth-in-cloud-infrastructure-revenues-302875728.html ; https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm .

1. Q2 comps fell2.1%; the37 days throughSeptember7 fell3.5%, so earlyQ3 does not show demand recovery. 2. Six-month OCF-27.276m less4.880m capex gives-32.156m FCF; cash buybacks28.972m raise combined drain to61.128m, versus63.359m fall in cash plus securities sinceJanuary31. 3. Inventory is approximately flat YoY, reducing evidence for a large inventory buildup. Conclusion: no cash-backed recovery signal. The issuer's positive35.7m OCF narrative refers to the year-over-year cash bridge, not the negative six-month table; different periods reconcile both. Strong countercase is seasonally strong holiday cash and international growth; require paid cash and US traffic recovery rather than assume annualized H1 burn. Earnings completed, no new run-up entry. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318008/000117184326005980/exh_991.htm .

1. SEC Q4 results show gross margin41.7765% versus45.3044%, a3.5278pp contraction despite2.4% revenue growth. 2. FY OCF1604.492m less capex337.363m gives1267.129m FCF; lower investment explains improvement over prior1230.760m despite lower OCF. 3. ACV's approximately1900m equity price is1.4995x FY FCF; $10.50 cash tender remains subject to majority acceptance and HSR, with no financing condition. Conclusion: acquiree platform benefits may help future growth, but they do not reverse current margin pressure. Issuer forecasts EPS accretion only FY2028 onward. Exact tender commencement/expiry unconfirmed; no invented merger deadline or arbitrage order. This recovers earlier results/agreement gaps; operating unit detail and full Q&A remain gaps. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526387902/cprt-ex99_1.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388064/d138322d8k.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388064/d138322dex991.htm .

1. Q3 OCF $2.523bn less $85m capex gives $2.438bn FCF, covering $2.232bn cash buybacks 1.0923x. 2. GAAP EPS4.62 versus adjusted6.13 differs by1.51; stock/deferred compensation accounts for1.38 of that bridge. 3. Q4 revenue midpoint6.825bn is only0.962% above rounded Q3 sales6.76bn. Conclusion: cash generation supports the business, but acquisition-inclusive growth and product adoption percentages do not isolate organic AI monetization. Countercase: Firefly and enterprise adoption can compound into paid expansion. Reconsider upon a complete organic revenue/ARR bridge and durable cash conversion; no run-up trade after released earnings. Exact table OCF2523 supersedes rounded2520 used in exploratory arithmetic. Sources https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf ; https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/c6yetrerew.pdf .

1. September 10 issuer statements report $23.103bn Q1 OCF and $28.499bn capex. 2. Financing-component customer prepayments supplied $11.363bn, or 49.184% of OCF. Subtracting them as a sensitivity leaves $11.740bn OCF, still 44.226% above prior Q1; subtracting capex then gives -$16.759bn. This is not a GAAP correction or a forecast of recurring cash. 3. Net ATM issuance supplied $19.909bn. Conclusion: delivery growth is real issuer-reported evidence, but backlog growth is not self-funded equity cash flow. Strong counterargument: customer financing aligns funding with contracted demand and reduces external financing needs. What changes the view: documented conversion to profitable services and less capital required per incremental paid revenue. No purchase: earnings already occurred; no new dated run-up. Sources https://investor.oracle.com/files/content_files/1q27-pressrelease-September_FINAL.pdf ; https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-announces-q1-results-driven-by-triple-digit-growth-in-cloud-infrastructure-revenues-302875728.html .

Premises:1 A29bookingdatesreduce34to32fromSep15 https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-29-2026-Additional-Measures-to-Address-Reduced-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf ; A31permitsrepeatcustomerbookingsfromSep13andminimum3LPG/daywithin63Neo/week https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf .2 AugustA34 https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf lists1029transits,not1029bookings. Sept14maintenance tentative.3 Dorian10K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm sayswaitstypicallyunpaid; 99%poolrevenue notsinglecharterer. Firstorder: changedslotallocation/maintenance affectsaccess, withoutprovingloweractualthroughput. Second: bookingpriority mayoffsetLPGdelays; auction/toll/bunkers canconsumehighergrossfreight, shippers maypayorreducecargo. Third: onlyprofitableloadedvoyages supportcash/dividends; additionalcapacity/reroutingordemandloss canreversepremium. Factsendattheoriginalnoticesandfilings; theseeconomicbranchesarehypotheses, notmeasuredSeptembernetbacks. Strongcounterargument: DorianQ2alreadyearned107.2madjustedincome, so delayedcashisnotautomaticveto. TSMsimilarlyhasrealoperatingprofitsbutconcentratedinputs; FTKchemistrygrowthdoesnotprovepausedpowergenerationrestarted. Conclusionkeepwatch/zeroentrywhileLPGsignalfalseandTSMrulefails; noFRO/STNGstackasdiversificationwithoutjointtailassessment.

Premises:1 IssuerAugtable https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 gives514806mNTD, +53.3%YoY. July467580; both31days, so +10.1001%monthly equalsdailygrowth, no calendar distortion. Jan–Augtotal3386870m. Recoveredaccess, alreadyknownSep10, notfreshsurprise.2 July16Q2release https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/a80d7933be643644081584087731f73b22ea5a2c/2Q26%20EarningsRelease.pdf : Q3USDguideatassumed32FX impliesSeptember444814–483214mNTD afterJuly/Aug,6.14–13.60%belowAug. FX-sensitive arithmetic, notforecast. GMguidemid66% is1.7ppbelowQ2; volume strength alone doesnotproveincrementalpricing.3 Annualreport https://investor.tsmc.com/sites/ir/annual-report/2025/2025%20TSMC%20Annual%20Report.E.pdf shows78%top10customerconcentration and55%top3netprocurementtable, plus sole-sourceinputrisk. Anonymoussuppliers cannot beassignednames.4 At428.03,price/annualizedQ2ADR-EPS~24.83x isrun-rate sensitivity, notforwardP/E/fairvalue. Conclusion: fundamentals support operatingcapture but nottestedstockreturn; rejectcurrententry2709. Counterexample: leadingedgedemand mayoutgrow costs; evidence needed is revisedmargin/cashandqualifiedprospectivesignal. Monthly sales are not cash collections; no negative business verdict inferred from price-rulefailure.

Premises:1 TSM high-revenue month warrants testing, not assuming a price edge.2 Freeze in note2300 before computing: L20 close>prior20closehigh and>SMA50, nextopen entry, prior20ADR, stop2ADR,target6ADR,20sessiontimeexit; gap atopen, stopfirst dualtouch.3 SIP2020Sepwarmup; train2021–24/test2025–Sep10'26, fees5/slip20bp eachside; stressslip75. Vectorbt longonly expanded two accounting slots/day now supports same-entry-day exit; Jan24'23 omission corrected, not a signal retune. Training marked−5.5033% versus completed−1.2228%N36; one cutoff position excluded from completed win sample. Holdout−22.185%N20,35%wins,37.1436%DD; stress−37.5523%. All20holdoutexits complete; vectorbtclosedcount equals explicit ledger.4 Mean test−.95275%/CI[−4.21653,2.52726]% bootstrap20000; no stable edge. Conclusion reject rule for trade. Valid inference from failed rule to no entry, not from failed rule to bearish TSM fundamentals. Daily adjusted prices are not cash-dividend/15minute/overnight venue execution; +2Rquarter/trailing policy untested. Earlier v1 omitted1trainingentrydayexit and had−6.8276%training; preserve both vintages, correctedv2 governs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fullrows observations25100–25111; localstudy.py/paths/results.

Premises:1.Analysis2312 freezes Sep9event,t-2Sep4 due LaborDay,t+1Sep10,t+2Sep11.2.Fresh prices match144.65->147.065 andSPY770.19->757.83; EAR3.274346pp. Prior20ADR forSep11 includesAug13–Sep10=8.759085.3.Initialcheck25076mistakenlyusedone-dayreturnsandexcludedSep10fromADR; correction25077-style followup explicitly supersedes it. Conclusion no vendorrevision demonstrated; preserve229 actualSep11openpaperlevelsE-8.759085/E+13.1386275,+1ADRhalfandnextdayBE,Sep17forcedclose. Noorder: historicalN9uncertainty crosseszero and1.5Rpaperpolicydifferslive3R. This is signal reconciliation, not a new test. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 .