Stats

Premises:1 accepted fixed momentum rule;2 completed daily bars through Sep11 only;3 no stop/monthly rerank trigger;4 whole-share cap applies. Columns symbol|12m return%|close|SMA200|ATR20|qualified rank|chosen qty|60day P90%|target N. EEM|34.203759|67.8400|61.760350|0.952640|1|1|10.717963|1255 QQQ|23.698782|714.8800|659.256500|7.868425|2|0|16.169585|1255 IWM|23.457265|288.8900|273.165150|3.070525|3|0|12.823845|1255 EFA|19.458128|106.7000|100.673350|0.880870|4|0|9.630283|1255 GLD|18.943507|398.7700|415.934500|7.952445|-|0|16.781704|1255 SPY|18.489063|764.2900|712.045200|5.452860|5|0|10.842338|1255 TLT|-5.756905|80.8700|84.500500|0.691125|-|0|6.150558|1255 BTC/USD|-33.166568|77212.8315|70029.042670|2437.141232|6|0|37.302500|1826 ETH/USD|-43.622786|2516.0660|2052.467578|98.988171|7|0|42.975607|1826 Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and /data/crypto-bars. June1 2021 warmup; target endpoints Sep12 2021 onward, signed60bar gains including losses. ETF dividend-adjusted252-interval return, crypto365. Seven qualify; EEM/QQQ/IWM retained. EEM order11 pending1@67.84 stop65.93 target75.11, expiresSep15 02:06UTC. EEM target10.717963%=7.271066/share, initial stop E-1.90528. Candidate profitable ratchet max61.76035,69.125-1.90528=67.21972 inactive until fill/profit. QQQ714.88 and IWM288.89 exceed212.7475 cap; 79.426667 equal slots, no substitution or EEM concentration. Cash170.44 uncommitted from unavailable slots/rounding, plus67.84 reserved pending; no filled exposure. No concept retest. Counterexample: revised data could alter signal, but current corrected full warmup reproduces prior table exactly.

Premises:1 current equity850.99 cap221.26 supersedes187.22;2 equal73.75/73.75/73.76;3 retain measured worst split-adjusted2016–Sep11 gaps from2904 QQQ9.457211%,IWM9.301937%,EFA11.623512%, allMar16 2020;4 scenario L=N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005], r=current2ATR/close. {"assets":[{"symbol":"QQQ","size":73.75,"normal_loss":1.6234790279487459,"target_gain":11.925069182675784,"rr":7.3453792610693736,"double_crisis_loss":15.634543578521022,"breach_gap":0.32633587000781483},{"symbol":"IWM","size":73.75,"normal_loss":1.5677331769877785,"target_gain":9.457585424615162,"rr":6.032649919922496,"double_crisis_loss":15.365181450250295,"breach_gap":0.3268561360210779},{"symbol":"EFA","size":73.76,"normal_loss":1.2178626279287705,"target_gain":7.103296659009526,"rr":5.832592688298649,"double_crisis_loss":18.450550161606895,"breach_gap":0.33005696053958994}],"joint_stress":49.45027519037821,"normal_loss":4.409074832865295,"target_gain":28.48595126630047,"cap_increase_pct":18.181818181818187}. Joint stress5.810911%equity; gap beyond stop needed to lose3%account32.63/32.69/33.01%. No empirical scenario guarantees future loss; full loss of73.76 is8.67%account. Fixed equal-weight mandate with explicit crisis scenario retained, no claim absolute3%bound. Correlations.779–.817 from2904 invalidate independence. Gross target28.49 versus4.41 ordinary stop is geometry over1–3months, not expectation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Prior simulation2905 retained, not live win odds or Kelly; no new backtest required by fixed mandate.

Premises:1 refreshed completed Sep11 daily bars; ETFs SIP adjustment=all, crypto Sep12 partial excluded;2 return close/252-interval prior close-1, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic, ATR20 simple TR mean; rolling60 return P90 endpoints since2021-09-12;3 Core EEM queued per current context, own trade query empty. Table symbol: return%,SMA200,ATR20,rank,proposed$. SPY: 18.4891,712.04520,5.45286,5,0; QQQ: 23.6988,659.25650,7.86842,2,73.75; IWM: 23.4573,273.16515,3.07052,3,73.75; EFA: 19.4581,100.67335,0.88087,4,73.76; EEM: 34.2038,61.76035,0.95264,1,0; GLD: 18.9435,415.93450,7.95245,below SMA,0; TLT: -5.7569,84.50050,0.69113,below SMA,0; BTC/USD: -33.1666,70029.04267,2437.14123,6,0; ETH/USD: -43.6228,2052.46758,98.98817,7,0. Conclusion QQQ/IWM/EFA; no positive-return extra gate, no crypto substitution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/crypto-bars. All9 OHLC bounds and history length checks pass. Adjusted prices proxy total return, not independent dividend reconstruction. Rank initial flat deployment; subsequent rerank monthly/stop only.

Startaccount850.99,crypto153.18cash,noholdings/queuedcryptoorders;goalpositiveexecutableexpectancy,notmonthshortfall349.01. Premise1 all8volatiletop-volume namesbelowprior480HIGH;ETHonlyeventavailableSep11 14UTCbreakout/22UTCpullback,bothalreadyretrospective,nofresharm. Premise2 C91206frozen216costed20HIGH/10LOWcomparatorcellsprovidecontext,notmanaged3Rvalidation:ETHknownholdoutdaily-4.867204%,hourly-.489511%;BTCpositive18.257988/17.935419%withoneopenposition;smallclosedNandtrainingmeanCIsstraddle0. PriorC91204managedETHpullback42.312train/19.207holdoutN3plus1open retained,notreplaced. Premise3 actual23UTCcloseSMA200placesall3majorsaboveaverage;NAfullOHLCcontrolisnotbearishproof. Premise4 joint15min20dayETHbootstrapmean-.390561%,target3.35%,stop53.35%unconditional;thiscannotestablishconditionalpullbackodds. Strongcounterargument:cashmissesfat-tailtrendandBTCcomparatorhaspositivehistory;answerfreshentryandvalidatedexitsmustmatchtherule,notbuyafterthefact. Validity:conclusionnoorderfollowsfromabsenttimelyentry,notfromcertaintyallstrategiesfail. Soundness:sourcebars/recentreceiptsverified,quotehistory/actualfees/ETFflows/unseencrashesremainlimited. Actualsize0;fundcap153.18,quarterillustration38.295,normal3%equity25.5297. NoFUNDproposal:workfitscrypto. Collector240/241/242actualEND06:16exit0verified;fiveactiveownjobs14/25/240/241/242,cutoff10:30,next08UTCmonitor324,319resolved. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading ; https://www.circle.com/transparency .

Facts: CircleasofSep10 USDCnet7day-.25bn,net30day+2.02bn;OKXlocal06:04fundingforecastBTC.7795/ETH.8068/SOL.7433bp,settled.3247/.2743/.6055bp;OIcoin27317.297/631878.744/2768455.39. These areonevenuequantitiesandforecastsettlementrates,notnormalizedhistoricalextremes. Premise1 positivefundingmeanslongspayifrealized,notautomaticcrowding. Firstorderhypothesis: redemptionorleveragereductioncanwithdrawliquidity;beneficiariesincludeuncrowdedbuyersandcashholders. Counterexample:issuancenetpositive30daysandstablecoinredemptionmayreflectpaymentuse. Secondorderhypothesis:sharedliquidityshockhitsmajorsjointly;supportis2026corrBTCETH.9111,BTCSOL.8789,notcausalproof. Thirdorderhypothesis: thinnerweekendquotesand15mincheckgapsmagnifyrealizedlossrelativetostoplevel,justifyingcorrelatedcapandstress;cashcanalsomissafat-tailrally. Noissuerfee/adoptiondataorETFcreationtime-seriesestablishincrementalspotbuyingthisrun. Conclusion factualcontextsupportsmonitoringandjointstress,notaneworderorindependentfund. ExistingArclaunchmonitors104/307preserved;noassumedlaunchoutcome. Sources https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Start and finish supply170.20cash/account850.99; query_trades returnedonlytwoalreadyclosedlots, noholdings orpending supplyorders. Goal is affordable bottleneckpricingpower with asymmetry; currentbindingconstraint is implementation, not the349.01funding shortfall. 1. New FRO3Rstudy2920-23 is positive: training48.932%/holdout99.823%N17+1open, stress92.950%; managedholdout58.138%N18/stress52.394. L40holdout-5.882% warns sensitivity. These are chronological heldout daily dividend-adjusted proxies, not execution proof. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. FROretainedcashthesis supported by issuerbookings andprofits;declared3.41distribution createsrawstopproblem https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . Correctedsim2946 changesexdaystopincidence41.96%static to6.10%wealthadjusted under assumed5dayblocks—not a stockreturnforecast. Exactvenueentitlement,15minmanagement/trailing and fundamental fullypricedtarget remaingaps. 3. Finalgap-budgetedsizing2944 permits85.099full,21.27475quarterprobe,below49.21oneFROshare; fractionalorderonlyRTH. Do notroundup orqueueentrybeforeimplementation. STNGfixedholdout-3.983%/stress-6.166%,managedstress-.639% retainsrejection despitepositive training. 4. HWM/LPG/FTK/CCJcurrentlyfailfrozenentry;SWKSpricebreakoutdoesnotestablishnewRFbottleneckcash. Widerpower/metals/helium/USDAjobsremain; broadwholemarketexhaustiveness notclaimed. 5. Resolved318withactual23604:16END;06:16receiptpendingatcheck. TestednewSIPcollector243 replaces226 afterlocalEND; remotecompletionunverified. New32308UTC handoff;preserve287FROSep17/313FTKABL/102tariff/103Canal. 6. Noorders,noexitchanges,noFUNDproposal. Strongcounterargument is FRO's positive netproxy; it earns implementationpriority, not rejection merelybecauseCIcrosseszero. Next work is rawdividend/15min execution and targetcashbridge, not anotherlookbacksearch. Lessons837-839 and reproducibility2593-2604 stored. Allworkfits supply.

Premise1 use fractionalreturns,notRunitsblindly: fhalf=.5*(p/meanloss-(1-p)/meanwin). Baseline20HIGH/10LOWtraining:BTCdailyN10p.30,W31.267139%,L6.995177%,f1.024949;BTChourlyN13p.307692,W25.656397%,L6.437934%,f1.040491. ETHdailyN12p.416667,W14.580065%,L12.532606%,f-.338118;ETHhourlyN14p.428571,W22.083105%,L11.770743%,f.526680. SOLdailyN7f-.937562,hourlyN8p.5,W9.740927%,L6.614635%,f1.213007. Premise2 positiveplug-inscap153.18fund(min212.7475venue,850.99*f),negativecap0;quarterfundillustration38.295. Counterexample:alltrainingmeanCIsstraddle0,3assetscorrelated,trainingN7–14,unseenlefttailandactualmanaged3Rpolicyuntestedbythiscomparator. Plug-infractioncanexceed1becausepayoffreturnsarefractions,notpermissionforleverage. Conclusion actualsize0becausefreshentryabsent;noallocationfromtheseestimatesandnocapitalrequest. KeeppriorETHpullbackstudyseparateandneverusemonthshortfall349.01asinput. Goalpositiveexecutableexpectancy;bindingconstrainttimelyqualifiedentryandsoundpolicy-specificpayoffs,notfundingneed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premise1 coherentcompletedUTCdailyreturns2024-25trainingversus2026throughSep11holdout. ETH/BTCcorr .790720→.911085,SOL/BTC .769173→.878901,ETH/SOL .767210→.879675. OLSaltreturn=constant+betaBTCreturn:ETHtrainN724beta1.156279,holdoutN252beta1.252137;SOLtrainN486beta1.452620,holdoutN252beta1.205607. 2000ten-observationmovingblockbootstrapseed912064 holdoutbetaCIETH[1.160094,1.380073],SOL[1.117952,1.328144]. DailyinterceptETH .011985%CI[-.125653,.109094],SOL .000076%CI[-.217052,.197179];noindependentinterceptedge. HoldoutannualizedvolETH63.913068%,SOL63.791445%. Counterexample: correlation/betaarerecentassociation,notstablecrashhedgesorcausalpredictions;pairwisemissingrowsdroppedandSOLshorterhistory. Conclusion BTC/ETH/SOLmustshareasystemicriskbudgetratherthanthreeindependentKellybets;supports jointsimulation2930–31,notanentrysignal. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premise1 sourcecollector actualEND06:01/locally06:04: all8volatilecoinsinlatest7dayvolumetop10 belowprior480calendarhourHIGH on05UTCbarcompleted06UTC. BTC77199.993<82233.502538;ETH2511.935<2664.8535;SOL101.6<110.5357;LTC53.82085<59.34355;XRP1.36405<1.54995;HYPE78.61<89.995471;LINK11.5088<13.677;UNI6.22845<7.4795. All480hourwindowscomplete. ETHonlyrecentbreakoutavailableSep11 14UTC,pullback22UTC;nowarmedNone. Premise2 frozenoldbreakout2632.27965/S2456.252663/T3223.796841through05:45barN64missing0,low2506.24,high2664.8535,marked-4.571879%,-.683672R;pullback2516.639125/S2327.78978/T3143.83652,N32missing0,low2506.24,high2523.0025,marked-.186921%,-.024909R. Zero stop/target/+2Rtouches inboth,closedN0;liquidationproxies-5.143375/-.784677%. Counterexample: trendispositiveandmissedupsidecouldresume;thatdoesnotcreatenextopenentrynow. Conclusion unchangedcash153.18,nofundholdingsorqueuedcryptoorders. Frozenpaths timeoutOct1 14/22UTC retained asretrospectiveonly. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

1. Own supply record has two operator-liquidation winners, combinedstockPnL4.977287,mean2.278710%;100%wins cannot estimate average losses or execution advantage. A naive exact95%binomiallower15.8114% already wide; correlated shipping lots further weaken independence. Source venue query_trades fund=supply, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . 2. FROfixed training33closedmean1.87277%,10000IIDbootstrap95%CI[-1.97206,6.13580];test17mean4.65443%CI[-1.35232,10.72225]. Positive realizedgeometricreturns supportwatch despite uncertain mean. Managedholdout18mean2.97157%CI[-2.24030,8.46648]. STNGfixedtest11mean-.34261%CI[-5.19766,5.84822]. No new sample from parameter sweep; trials share market periods. 3. Collection completed dailySIPall with prior2020warmup,2021-24training/2025-Sep11heldoutforthisrule. Testperiodalreadyseenforotherstrategies; selectedcurrenttankers creates selectionbias, not universe-wideedge. UnfinishedtradesmarkequitybutdonotenterclosedoutcomeCI. These distributions and currentcorr.777079 are descriptive, notwar-causal. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. Prior shifted from old2Rinconclusivewatch to provisional3RpositiveFROwatch; not to statisticalcertainty. A costed prospective15min/rawcashimplementation passing unchangedrules would strengthen it; weakcash/normalizingnetrates orprospectiveexecutionlosses weakenit. No preciseBayesianposterior claimed.

Premise1 a missing intraday hour invalidates that day's fullOHLC but neednot invalidate the actual23UTC hourlyclose. Strictcomplete-daySMA200 producedholdoutknownBTC57/ETH0/SOL0 of254days; unavailableSMAwasexcluded,notclassifieddowntrend. Usingonlyobserved23UTCcloses restoresknownBTC254/ETH254/SOL136; no inventedprice. Currentclose-onlySMA200BTC70029.327970/ETH2052.467578/SOL82.927420;lastdaily77212.8315/2516.066/102.4335 allabove. Premise2 fixedlaggedSMA200 x20dayRVabove/belowtrainingmedian;5dayforwardreturns,20daymovingblockbootstrap2000seed912063. ETHabove/highvolholdoutN18mean+.456754%,CI[-.010649,5.044629]%;SOLabove/lowvolN15mean+3.592143%,CI[2.615704,11.197233]%;BTCabove/lowvolN2 notinference. Counterexample: smalloverlappinglate-periodclusters anduncorrectedmultiplecomparisons; costs/entries/3Rnotmodeled,associationnotedge. Conclusion retainpositivecurrenttrendcontext withoutturningdataabsenceintobearsignal oradoptingbestregimecell. Frozen216backtestsremainstrictcontrol;thiscorrectedfeaturestudyseparate. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Supersedes2932figures. Audit found firstday started economic49.21 at priorclose while treating49.21 as entry; unowned firstovernightmovement entered payoff. Correct firstdayOHLC ratios relative to sampledopen so entryopen exactly49.21; subsequentday ratios remain priorclose-based. Other specification unchanged:20000paired40sessionpaths,5dayblocks2021-24,seed91206,2ADRstop3Rtarget,1bpfee5bpslip,3.41exsession5 deductedfromeconomicOHLC. Include dividend receivable only for priordayholders; not cashreinvestment. Staticrawstop:88.865%stop,10.53%target,.605%timeout,41.96%stoppedonexday,mean+.8081302%,median-.2303364%,win48.645%. Adjustbothlevelsby3.41onexday:66.105%stop,31.15%target,2.745%timeout,6.10%stoppedonexday,mean+1.5436493%,median-5.5940764%,win33.41%. Entitlement73.385%both. Directional mechanics finding survives; neither policy calibrated to currentevent stock expectancy. Levels adjusted is hypothetical, not a venueinstruction. Does not model15minchecks,trailing/partialmanagement,taxes, market-specific dividend repricing orcurrentwar regime. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; declaration https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No orders.

Training net closed-trade outcomes from2920-27; no holdout fitting. Binary approximation b=average win/absolute average loss; halfKelly risk fraction=.5*max(0,p-(1-p)/b). Mapping to current stop-percent assumes one average historical loss corresponds to that prospective risk unit; no claim exact growth-optimal sizing. Full notional=min(fund170.20,position212.7475,halfKelly*850.99/currentrisk,3%equity/currentrisk,3%equity/30%gap)=85.099. Gap assumption30% is subjective, not a measured worst case; larger gaps still possible. Quarter probe21.27475, below one share for either tanker; do not round up to a full share because the account needs349.01. One quarter probe's 30%gap loss6.382425=.75%account. 20000IID20trade paths, seed91206, constantfraction85.099/850.99 rebalanced with future allocations ignored; 5%pertrade outcome replaced with min(original,-30%) stress is a sensitivity, not forecast. Exact fixed/managed inputs and P05/P50/P95/95thDD: [{"symbol":"STNG","managed":false,"trainingN":26,"p":0.46153846153846156,"avgwin_pct":18.695275670181577,"avgloss_pct":7.111644211680803,"b":2.628826065212146,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.12835440279960536,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":7.625,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-11.385757553278578,80.4081455450203,193.47724097016433],"DD95_pct":6.1364220172558985,"stress_loss_pct":21.875,"stressDD95_pct":9.80049493827431},{"symbol":"STNG","managed":true,"trainingN":27,"p":0.4444444444444444,"avgwin_pct":16.852046788213258,"avgloss_pct":7.212904794472147,"b":2.3363744938278397,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.10332956245744462,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":13.22,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-24.308019388991966,57.64536238639504,157.85314757831037],"DD95_pct":6.525196212787598,"stress_loss_pct":31.165,"stressDD95_pct":10.381679167648542}]. These final paths supersede precap26294-97; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positive training Kelly does not override negative fixed holdout and managed stress holdout; eligible live size remains zero.

Training net closed-trade outcomes from2920-27; no holdout fitting. Binary approximation b=average win/absolute average loss; halfKelly risk fraction=.5*max(0,p-(1-p)/b). Mapping to current stop-percent assumes one average historical loss corresponds to that prospective risk unit; no claim exact growth-optimal sizing. Full notional=min(fund170.20,position212.7475,halfKelly*850.99/currentrisk,3%equity/currentrisk,3%equity/30%gap)=85.099. Gap assumption30% is subjective, not a measured worst case; larger gaps still possible. Quarter probe21.27475, below one share for either tanker; do not round up to a full share because the account needs349.01. One quarter probe's 30%gap loss6.382425=.75%account. 20000IID20trade paths, seed91206, constantfraction85.099/850.99 rebalanced with future allocations ignored; 5%pertrade outcome replaced with min(original,-30%) stress is a sensitivity, not forecast. Exact fixed/managed inputs and P05/P50/P95/95thDD: [{"symbol":"FRO","managed":false,"trainingN":33,"p":0.3333333333333333,"avgwin_pct":18.105222844836412,"avgloss_pct":6.2434623786051535,"b":2.8998689744457598,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.05171894445206486,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":25.435000000000002,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-39.30526101917955,30.318214243403553,114.45264236866166],"DD95_pct":7.080746313178854,"stress_loss_pct":47.605,"stressDD95_pct":11.13627490102703},{"symbol":"FRO","managed":true,"trainingN":33,"p":0.42424242424242425,"avgwin_pct":12.283176512051064,"avgloss_pct":6.258099367749241,"b":1.962764697433811,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.06545116641722587,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":26.035000000000004,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-36.190637397512376,25.580741501279697,99.49214229861506],"DD95_pct":6.336174871619391,"stress_loss_pct":50.665000000000006,"stressDD95_pct":10.60280966577072}]. These final paths supersede precap26294-97; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positive training supports a candidate, but pending dividend/raw management and sub-share probe remain implementation tasks.

Command: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols FRO,STNG --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 2080 --stop-pct 10 --target-pct 30. CLI returned1426IEXbars and uses signal-driven exits as well as percentage stops/targets. No explicit execution costs or independent holdout. It is a diagnostic, not a replication of frozen SMA50/2ADR3R/40session SIP policy, and cannot adjudicate its validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Both tools' results retained rather than selecting the positive implementation; method differences explain disagreement.

Ran required CLI --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days980 onBTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD. BTCreturn46.460751%,DD14.692428%,win34.328358%,N67;ETH40.761782%,DD24.943256%,win30.909091%,N55;SOL72.151727%,DD18.795394%,win52.777778%,N36. Inspected strategies.ts/engine.ts:prior20CLOSE threshold,samecloseentry,noexplicitfees/noheldoutwindow,currentpartialdailybarincluded;SOL748barsversus981majors. Premise gross performance is diagnostic only;counterexample ETHcostedHIGH/nextopen2026daily-4.8672%,hourly-.4895% and these also lackmanaged3R. Conclusion no cross-policy borrowing of CLIreturnsfororders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . CLIandrawstatssavedinobservations;notadoption.

Command: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols FRO,STNG --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 2080 --stop-pct 10 --target-pct 30. CLI returned1426IEXbars and uses signal-driven exits as well as percentage stops/targets. No explicit execution costs or independent holdout. It is a diagnostic, not a replication of frozen SMA50/2ADR3R/40session SIP policy, and cannot adjudicate its validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Both tools' results retained rather than selecting the positive implementation; method differences explain disagreement.

Premise1 preregistered prior20calendar-dayHIGH breakout,prior10dayLOWexit,fillfollowingOPEN,longcashonly,fees25bp/slip10bp eachside,stress30bp. Hourly uses480HIGH/240LOW calendarhours. No stops/targets/partial management: diagnostic comparator,not user's executable3Rpolicy or previousETHpullbackpolicy. Train2024-2025 (SOL starts2024-08-26),resetcashJan1,known2026holdoutthroughSep1206UTC;2026alreadyresearched,not untouchednewOOS. Train return9.334791%,DD36.795757%,N8,win50%,meanCI[-4.938225,8.002702]%. Holdoutmarked return1.322187%,DD24.525746%,closedN4,win0%,mean-5.897838%,CI[-7.941673,-3.062724]%,openN1;stressreturn-0.484906%. Premise2 all9lookback15/20/30 x SMA0/100/200cells retained;holdoutbasecost range-2.935467to19.188094%. MeanCI5000IIDtradebootstrap,smallNandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted. Counterexample: markedopenprofitcanmaskclosedlosses;strictrollingSMAbecomesunavailableaftergaps,N0isnotvalidation. Conclusion no winningparameterchosenfromholdout and no currentlateentryauthorized. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ;fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading . All216cellfiguresobservations26302–26325.

Premise1 preregistered prior20calendar-dayHIGH breakout,prior10dayLOWexit,fillfollowingOPEN,longcashonly,fees25bp/slip10bp eachside,stress30bp. Daily OHLC reconstructed only from24completehours. No stops/targets/partial management: diagnostic comparator,not user's executable3Rpolicy or previousETHpullbackpolicy. Train2024-2025 (SOL starts2024-08-26),resetcashJan1,known2026holdoutthroughSep1200UTC;2026alreadyresearched,not untouchednewOOS. Train return-10.120708%,DD42.459529%,N7,win42.857143%,meanCI[-8.221019,5.529944]%. Holdoutmarked return4.581108%,DD17.406778%,closedN3,win0%,mean-4.373566%,CI[-5.151662,-3.875026]%,openN1;stressreturn3.12758%. Premise2 all9lookback15/20/30 x SMA0/100/200cells retained;holdoutbasecost range0to19.561908%. MeanCI5000IIDtradebootstrap,smallNandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted. Counterexample: markedopenprofitcanmaskclosedlosses;strictrollingSMAbecomesunavailableaftergaps,N0isnotvalidation. Conclusion no winningparameterchosenfromholdout and no currentlateentryauthorized. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ;fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading . All216cellfiguresobservations26302–26325.

Premise1 preregistered prior20calendar-dayHIGH breakout,prior10dayLOWexit,fillfollowingOPEN,longcashonly,fees25bp/slip10bp eachside,stress30bp. Hourly uses480HIGH/240LOW calendarhours. No stops/targets/partial management: diagnostic comparator,not user's executable3Rpolicy or previousETHpullbackpolicy. Train2024-2025 (SOL starts2024-08-26),resetcashJan1,known2026holdoutthroughSep1206UTC;2026alreadyresearched,not untouchednewOOS. Train return16.493028%,DD41.889093%,N14,win42.857143%,meanCI[-6.826896,12.704494]%. Holdoutmarked return-0.489511%,DD22.644888%,closedN5,win40%,mean1.326191%,CI[-5.247297,10.986248]%,openN1;stressreturn-2.654456%. Premise2 all9lookback15/20/30 x SMA0/100/200cells retained;holdoutbasecost range-12.836788to13.949464%. MeanCI5000IIDtradebootstrap,smallNandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted. Counterexample: markedopenprofitcanmaskclosedlosses;strictrollingSMAbecomesunavailableaftergaps,N0isnotvalidation. Conclusion no winningparameterchosenfromholdout and no currentlateentryauthorized. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ;fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading . All216cellfiguresobservations26302–26325.

Premise1 preregistered prior20calendar-dayHIGH breakout,prior10dayLOWexit,fillfollowingOPEN,longcashonly,fees25bp/slip10bp eachside,stress30bp. Daily OHLC reconstructed only from24completehours. No stops/targets/partial management: diagnostic comparator,not user's executable3Rpolicy or previousETHpullbackpolicy. Train2024-2025 (SOL starts2024-08-26),resetcashJan1,known2026holdoutthroughSep1200UTC;2026alreadyresearched,not untouchednewOOS. Train return-24.66415%,DD50.545173%,N12,win41.666667%,meanCI[-9.572975,7.246572]%. Holdoutmarked return-4.867204%,DD17.451183%,closedN3,win0%,mean-5.049061%,CI[-9.724302,-2.115529]%,openN1;stressreturn-6.189414%. Premise2 all9lookback15/20/30 x SMA0/100/200cells retained;holdoutbasecost range-12.839698to11.294846%. MeanCI5000IIDtradebootstrap,smallNandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted. Counterexample: markedopenprofitcanmaskclosedlosses;strictrollingSMAbecomesunavailableaftergaps,N0isnotvalidation. Conclusion no winningparameterchosenfromholdout and no currentlateentryauthorized. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ;fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading . All216cellfiguresobservations26302–26325.

Premise1 preregistered prior20calendar-dayHIGH breakout,prior10dayLOWexit,fillfollowingOPEN,longcashonly,fees25bp/slip10bp eachside,stress30bp. Hourly uses480HIGH/240LOW calendarhours. No stops/targets/partial management: diagnostic comparator,not user's executable3Rpolicy or previousETHpullbackpolicy. Train2024-2025 (SOL starts2024-08-26),resetcashJan1,known2026holdoutthroughSep1206UTC;2026alreadyresearched,not untouchednewOOS. Train return30.449462%,DD34.232668%,N13,win30.769231%,meanCI[-5.327741,13.821846]%. Holdoutmarked return17.935419%,DD12.151445%,closedN3,win33.333333%,mean0.4253%,CI[-2.628821,6.359096]%,openN1;stressreturn16.296286%. Premise2 all9lookback15/20/30 x SMA0/100/200cells retained;holdoutbasecost range0to17.935419%. MeanCI5000IIDtradebootstrap,smallNandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted. Counterexample: markedopenprofitcanmaskclosedlosses;strictrollingSMAbecomesunavailableaftergaps,N0isnotvalidation. Conclusion no winningparameterchosenfromholdout and no currentlateentryauthorized. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ;fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading . All216cellfiguresobservations26302–26325.

Premise1 preregistered prior20calendar-dayHIGH breakout,prior10dayLOWexit,fillfollowingOPEN,longcashonly,fees25bp/slip10bp eachside,stress30bp. Daily OHLC reconstructed only from24completehours. No stops/targets/partial management: diagnostic comparator,not user's executable3Rpolicy or previousETHpullbackpolicy. Train2024-2025 (SOL starts2024-08-26),resetcashJan1,known2026holdoutthroughSep1200UTC;2026alreadyresearched,not untouchednewOOS. Train return32.167365%,DD32.754193%,N10,win30%,meanCI[-6.573376,17.652511]%. Holdoutmarked return18.257988%,DD10.252513%,closedN2,win50%,mean0.047637%,CI[-4.104569,4.199843]%,openN1;stressreturn17.081765%. Premise2 all9lookback15/20/30 x SMA0/100/200cells retained;holdoutbasecost range0to18.257988%. MeanCI5000IIDtradebootstrap,smallNandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted. Counterexample: markedopenprofitcanmaskclosedlosses;strictrollingSMAbecomesunavailableaftergaps,N0isnotvalidation. Conclusion no winningparameterchosenfromholdout and no currentlateentryauthorized. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ;fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading . All216cellfiguresobservations26302–26325.

1. Both tankers pass conjunction breakout/SMA50;SPY764.29>SMA200712.0452 supplies marketcontext, notrequirement. FRO/STNG60logreturncorr.777079 implies commonshippingrisk; addingSTNGisnotindependenttaildiversification. 2. FROfixedruletrainingmean inSPYabove200regime+.8941%N25 versus+4.9311%N8below;holdout+5.1453%N14above versus+2.3635%N3below. Directionofregimeadvantagereverses. Managedtrainingabove+.0802%N25 versus+6.3820%N8below;holdoutabove+3.2246%N15. 3. STNGfixedholdoutabove-.5586%N10,below+1.8169%N1. N1doesnotlicenseabearmarketfilter. Allpartitions26300-01, indicators26165-72/correlations26195-26202. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. These are post-testdescriptivepartitions, notadditionalindependentvalidation; noRSI/MACD/volatilitythresholdoptimizedafterholdout. FROcurrentRV20 36.1031% vsRV60 45.6912%;windowchoiceandreturndefinitionmustremainexplicit. Changedregimecanmoveprobabilitiesbutdoesnotmake a falseentry true.

September11completedSIPalladjusted: FRO49.21>48.40prior20 and40.8458SMA50;STNG84.52>84.51 and77.9266. HWM229.61<292.65and272.2414;LPG55.18<55.20;CCJ96.68<107.36;FTK27.33<35.83;SWKS88.35>84.03/65.97428. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CurrentSIPsignal persists despite IEXSTNGfailure; do notswapfeeds. FROreference2ADRstop46.51089/3R57.30733;STNG80.51631/96.53107 are range-derived examples, NOT fundamental fullypriced targets. Neitherdefinesnewwhole-sharepriceorder. Fund170.20 buys max3FROor2STNG beforeotherconstraints; partial-quarter management ofsmallwholelotscreatesfractionalexitlimitations. Sep18FROdistribution3.41 changesrawstopcomparison, primary https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No holdings, no Rprogress/holdingage/exitlevels to update. Exactvolumes,ADRvsATR,lookbacksandprices26165-72. HWM1620barsstartsApr2020aftercorporatestructurechange, otherseven1682; no claimallwarmupidentical. FrozenFRO3Rwatchnewlypositive; STNGholdoutfailure is separate. SWKSpricebreakoutalone doesnotestablish RFsupplypricingpower.