Stats

Fixed Donchian prior20 calendar-day HIGH entry / prior10day LOW exit at next exact OPEN; 480/240hours. Unfilled missing calendar hours; prices beforeSep13 02UTC only, incompleteSep13day excluded. Vectorbt creditedcoinbuy fee equivalent .0025/.9975, sell25bp; slip10bp/30bpstress. Training2024–25 return9.329324%,DD36.797732%,closedN8,win50.000%,openN0. Reset2026 known/reusedholdout return1.972209%,DD24.527633%,closedN4,win0.000%,openN1; stressreturn0.153523%. All15/20/30day sensitivities recorded, no bestparameter selected. Calendarholdout is not newly untouched data. Returnincludesopenmarkedposition;winrateclosedonly, no assumedfinalfill. No required2ATRstop/3Rtarget/quarterat2R/15minexitmanagement in this CONTROL, so notlivepolicyvalidation. FreshHIGHentryabsent across7, no late entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Experiment156cells observations26910–27075; currenttop10survivorselection limits generalization.

Fixed Donchian prior20 calendar-day HIGH entry / prior10day LOW exit at next exact OPEN; 20/10days. OHLCrequires24hours/day; prices beforeSep13 02UTC only, incompleteSep13day excluded. Vectorbt creditedcoinbuy fee equivalent .0025/.9975, sell25bp; slip10bp/30bpstress. Training2024–25 return-10.124640%,DD42.460968%,closedN7,win42.857%,openN0. Reset2026 known/reusedholdout return3.896506%,DD17.407810%,closedN3,win0.000%,openN1; stressreturn2.452493%. All15/20/30day sensitivities recorded, no bestparameter selected. Calendarholdout is not newly untouched data. Returnincludesopenmarkedposition;winrateclosedonly, no assumedfinalfill. No required2ATRstop/3Rtarget/quarterat2R/15minexitmanagement in this CONTROL, so notlivepolicyvalidation. FreshHIGHentryabsent across7, no late entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Experiment156cells observations26910–27075; currenttop10survivorselection limits generalization.

Fixed Donchian prior20 calendar-day HIGH entry / prior10day LOW exit at next exact OPEN; 480/240hours. Unfilled missing calendar hours; prices beforeSep13 02UTC only, incompleteSep13day excluded. Vectorbt creditedcoinbuy fee equivalent .0025/.9975, sell25bp; slip10bp/30bpstress. Training2024–25 return16.482836%,DD41.890183%,closedN14,win42.857%,openN0. Reset2026 known/reusedholdout return-0.011938%,DD22.646338%,closedN5,win40.000%,openN1; stressreturn-2.187273%. All15/20/30day sensitivities recorded, no bestparameter selected. Calendarholdout is not newly untouched data. Returnincludesopenmarkedposition;winrateclosedonly, no assumedfinalfill. No required2ATRstop/3Rtarget/quarterat2R/15minexitmanagement in this CONTROL, so notlivepolicyvalidation. FreshHIGHentryabsent across7, no late entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Experiment156cells observations26910–27075; currenttop10survivorselection limits generalization.

Fixed Donchian prior20 calendar-day HIGH entry / prior10day LOW exit at next exact OPEN; 20/10days. OHLCrequires24hours/day; prices beforeSep13 02UTC only, incompleteSep13day excluded. Vectorbt creditedcoinbuy fee equivalent .0025/.9975, sell25bp; slip10bp/30bpstress. Training2024–25 return-24.669800%,DD50.548573%,closedN12,win41.667%,openN0. Reset2026 known/reusedholdout return-4.530094%,DD17.452215%,closedN3,win0.000%,openN1; stressreturn-5.856989%. All15/20/30day sensitivities recorded, no bestparameter selected. Calendarholdout is not newly untouched data. Returnincludesopenmarkedposition;winrateclosedonly, no assumedfinalfill. No required2ATRstop/3Rtarget/quarterat2R/15minexitmanagement in this CONTROL, so notlivepolicyvalidation. FreshHIGHentryabsent across7, no late entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Experiment156cells observations26910–27075; currenttop10survivorselection limits generalization.

Fixed Donchian prior20 calendar-day HIGH entry / prior10day LOW exit at next exact OPEN; 480/240hours. Unfilled missing calendar hours; prices beforeSep13 02UTC only, incompleteSep13day excluded. Vectorbt creditedcoinbuy fee equivalent .0025/.9975, sell25bp; slip10bp/30bpstress. Training2024–25 return30.438863%,DD34.235134%,closedN13,win30.769%,openN0. Reset2026 known/reusedholdout return18.078296%,DD12.151994%,closedN3,win33.333%,openN1; stressreturn16.437177%. All15/20/30day sensitivities recorded, no bestparameter selected. Calendarholdout is not newly untouched data. Returnincludesopenmarkedposition;winrateclosedonly, no assumedfinalfill. No required2ATRstop/3Rtarget/quarterat2R/15minexitmanagement in this CONTROL, so notlivepolicyvalidation. FreshHIGHentryabsent across7, no late entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Experiment156cells observations26910–27075; currenttop10survivorselection limits generalization.

Fixed Donchian prior20 calendar-day HIGH entry / prior10day LOW exit at next exact OPEN; 20/10days. OHLCrequires24hours/day; prices beforeSep13 02UTC only, incompleteSep13day excluded. Vectorbt creditedcoinbuy fee equivalent .0025/.9975, sell25bp; slip10bp/30bpstress. Training2024–25 return32.159105%,DD32.756294%,closedN10,win30.000%,openN0. Reset2026 known/reusedholdout return18.337791%,DD10.253074%,closedN2,win50.000%,openN1; stressreturn17.160774%. All15/20/30day sensitivities recorded, no bestparameter selected. Calendarholdout is not newly untouched data. Returnincludesopenmarkedposition;winrateclosedonly, no assumedfinalfill. No required2ATRstop/3Rtarget/quarterat2R/15minexitmanagement in this CONTROL, so notlivepolicyvalidation. FreshHIGHentryabsent across7, no late entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Experiment156cells observations26910–27075; currenttop10survivorselection limits generalization.

Trainingonly p10/33,win22.5028%,loss8.28635%,b2.71564 =>halfKellyrisk.02319017. Mappingto2ADRstop5.19238% permitsnotionalabovefundcap, but assumed30%gap at3%equityrisk limitsfull85.099USD; quarter21.27475USD below47.90whole share. No rounding. Reference stop45.41285,target55.36145 gross3R; notvalueproof. Conditional20,000IID20trade paths seeded91302 at2.5%accountweight: baseP05/P50/P95=-2.1080/+.4490/+3.3826%,loss39.365%,DD95=2.6586%. Assumed5%trades30%gapstress gives-3.0788/-.3176/+2.7449%,loss57.055%,DD95=3.5617%. Probabilities aremodeloutputs, notobservedwarfrequency. FractionalRTH expression could fitamountbutcannottradeclosedandneedsrawexit/valueaudit. Actualsize0; noautomaticMondaybuy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Counterargumentpositivebase doesnotestablishcostedvenueexitpolicy; prioritizeaudit ratherthanraisingsize.

Frozen dailytrainN33 netmean1.0437%,20,000IIDbootstrap95%CI[-3.7876,6.3721]%; holdoutN12mean5.4980%,CI[-.4618,11.4242]%. Training22stops/8targets/3time,holdout5/4/3. N424common2025–Sep11returnsTEN/FROcorr.835826; TEN/CNQ.276531. SPY+XLIOLS R2.0682 isdescriptive, notproofidiosyncraticalpha. ExistingFROwin andTENsetup areonegeopolitical/freightrisk, nottwoindependentbets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positivepointestimates warrant prospectivevalidation, not treating12tradesasstable probability. BootstrapIID omitsregimeclustering; currentlyselectedticker biases screen.

Same frozen L20 close>prior20 AND SMA50 policy as3063, nextopenentry2ADRstop6ADRtarget40sessionmax, gapopen/stopfirst, entrydayallowed; SIPall1682bars2020–Sep11. Vectorbtlongonly fee1/slip5bp per side;train2020–24startsflat+1.30262%,DD70.98575%,10/33wins30.303%; holdout2025–Sep11+78.94124%,DD16.14993%,7/12wins58.3333%;fixedpathslip15bp+74.69777%. EndpointclosedpapertradeatSep11 perwindowconvention, notrealexit. L10/L40 sensitivities preserved withoutselection in observations. TNP asofJune28,2024matches1131prechangeTENbars exactly; July1,2024 issuer tickerchangeverified, not assumedoldTenneco. CLI1437bars103trades+58.0091%,DD19.158%,win37.8641%,differentIEXrule. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/07/01/2906633/0/en/TEN-Ltd-NYSE-Ticker-Change-to-TEN-Effective-Today.html . Current47.9>44.71,true. TrainingDDlarge/meanCIcrosszero; requiresraw15minand+2Rpolicy/cashdistributionauditbeforeliveuse. Theseadjustedbarreturnsdonotshowactualfundcashcredit. Noorder.

1. September10 issuer reports higherTCE and operatingcash, but financing and assetdisposals also explain cash growth (observation26908). https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html . 2. April6 20-F: top3customers40.65%FY2025sales; mostvessels timechartered, someprofitsharing. Fixed/minimumcharters may retain demand through disruptions but reduce immediate spotupside, while termination and delayednewbuild risks remain. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm . 3. Q2TCE lessopex gives35460USD/day beforeoverhead, depreciation,interestandcapex, not profit. H1OCF+netinvesting32.855m includesvesselsales: cannot annualize as maintenanceFCF. The3Rtechnicaltarget55.36145 still needs common-equity NAV/maintenancecash bridge, preferredclaims andnewbuildcommitments. Conclusion watchpriority rather thanfullsizeentry. Strong bull: profitablelongtermcharters fundmodernization; bear: cargo loss, counterpartyconcentration and shipyardcosts eat scarcerates. Validity: cashproof supports watch, not guaranteedvalue; soundnesslimitedbyperiodlags. No new priced date assumed; nextdividendannouncementintentionNov2026 isnotfixedpaymentdate.

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. RequiredCLI momentum20/1000days:685bars,26trades,+87.879807%,DD34.229923%,win53.846154%,buyhold131.09375%; unsplitdiagnosticnotoptionedge. 2. Vectorbt time-onlystockcontrol,T-2/3/5openentry toT-1closebeforemorningearnings,fees10bp/side,slippage10bpbaseline/30bpstress. First7events training,last2Feb/May2026 heldout. TrainingwinnerT5+39.558565%,DD10.963626%,win57.142857%,N7; holdout-9.482158%,DD8.405771%,win0%,N2;stress-10.203415%. T2holdout+5.2714% andT3+1.0137% are not selected afterseeingthem. 3. KnownhistoricalholdoutN2wideuncertainty; stocks cannot validate optiondecay/spread/targethitodds; noactualoptionPnLhistory. VectorbtDDisfromobservedNAVpeak, initialcosts canmakeoveralllosslarger. RejecttestedT5transfer; no inventedoptionbacktest.

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. Sep11close7.39 belowSMA20 7.6385/SMA50 7.8744/SMA200 8.2891; RSI14Wilder41.1713,20sessionreturn-2.5066%,arithmeticATR20.325145,20logreturnannualizedRV29.8176%. 676SIPbarsJan2024–Sep2026,no pagination. 2. Combinedregime weaktrend plus RSIbelow50 supportswatchingdownside, noteventtailprobability. P5costedbreak-even4.90 is7.6581ATR belowspot; observedmedianmove.387671equivalentdollars doesnotreach2.49hurdle. 3. Counterexampleearningsup21.0867% inFeb2026, so currentweaknesscanreverse. Nooptionstop/targetadopted onstocklevels; exitsmustuseoptionprice andRTH. Rejectbuy based solely on technicals.

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. Enumerated consecutive quarters before measuring; preserved Feb10,2026 first release rather than Feb12 correction and May14,2025 earnings rather than May15 strategic update. 2. All9 affordableputintrinsic payouts0; nearerputmeanintrinsic.298011xpremium, expensivecall1.130256x. These are static intrinsic scenarios, not option exits or mispricing proofs. 3. Null prior: no executable edge until costed criterion passes. LegacyMYTE standalone and acquiredYNAPbusiness differ: only4 quarters report group with acquired operations, insufficient same-regimeN8. WholeN9 testfailscheapput anyway. 4. Counterexample: futureacquisitionintegration couldproduce unprecedentedcollapse; unknown tailmass cannotbe estimated from zeroobservedhits. Rejectput; revisit newnearerpricedcontract plus independent event evidence. Dailyclose excludesintradayextremes andoptionIV; no claim of attainable fills.

Training-onlyp=.259259,avgwin9.574%,avgloss6.2915%,payoff1.5217 => clippedhalfKelly0. Thus authorizedsize0, quarterofzero0. As a counterfactual only,20,000IID20trade paths seed91302 at21.27475USD/850.99 account fraction2.5%: baseP05/P50/P95=-2.3919/-1.1329/+.3902%,lossodds89.325%,DD95=2.5111%. Replace5%draws with min(return,-30%) as assumedstress, not empiricalfrequency: -3.5120/-1.7732/-.0545%,loss95.445%,DD95=3.6482%. No case to deploy even smallprobe under this model. Twentytrades is not19days; left-tailcorrelation and changingregimes omitted. Reference stop27.50806,target35.23582 at29.44 are unvalidated fairvalue barriers,3Rgross only. 30%gap atcounterfactualsize costs6.382425USD; venuecap212.7475/fund170.20 cannot overridezeroedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and3063.

Fixed L20 trainingN27 mean-2.1782%, IIDbootstrap20000 95%CI[-4.8701,+.8161]%; holdoutN14 mean+1.3471%,CI[-4.2810,+7.4645]%. Training20stop/gapstop vs2targets and5time exits; holdout9stop/gapstop vs5target/gaptarget. Paired daily2025–Sep11 N424: KMT/XLIcorr.5665; OLSintercept.5074bp/day, SPYbeta-.2713,XLIbeta1.4806,R2.3248. Descriptive selected sample, no robust alpha significance and no causal tungsten coefficient. Ownledger still twooperatorliquidations, no naturalstop/target exits;100%winN2 cannot calibrate new strategy or slippage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_tradesfund=supply. Premise1 smallconditionaledge; premise2 trainnegative; conclusion do not trade from holdoutalone. IIDresampling understates serial/event clustering and currentlistings create survivor selection.

CANAANSep8Q2issuer:31.9mrevenue,17.7mminingrevenue versus20.4mminingcost including6.3mdepreciation =>3.6mminingcontributionbeforedepreciation,notconsolidatedFCF;operatingloss69.5m. 1915.5BTCholdings include1117pledged/100fixedterm;headlinecoinbalanceisnotfullyunencumberedspot. Sep8repurchases7.4mUSD/16.4mADS;Aug4authorizationallowsdigitalassetmonetization, not verifiedsellquantity. CAN20return57.29%yet.3366<.455high. HUTAug4issuer949MWcontractedIT,26.6bnexpectedbase-termvalue,>1.75bnexpectedannualNOI,7.5bnfinancing;thesearefutureAIinfrastructureeconomics,notcurrentBTCmargin. HUT98.6<101.83highandHUT.TO60return-19.62%. Counterargument cheaperpower/newleasescreateupside; requirepaidnetcash,debtdrawandasset-specificrule. Noorder/noseparatebookproposalwithoutmeasurednetedge. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780652/000110465926105660/tm2624951d1_ex99-1.htm ; https://investor.canaan-creative.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canaan-inc-repurchase-shares-using-portion-digital-asset ; https://www.hut8.com/news-insights/press-releases/hut-8-reports-second-quarter-2026-results . Sep11CAN6Kdirectretrievalfailed, current gapnamed; noabsenceinference.

IssuerETHA Sep10shares468.2m/NAV18.59 versusSep11shares467.2m/NAV19.18: shares-1m(-.213584%) whileNAV+3.17% andSIPprice+3.233%. EndNAVtimeschange=-19.18mUSD redemptionproxy, not verifiednetcashflow/trade timing; issuerAUMrise alonewouldmisclassifyvaluationascreation. Sep11closing19.16 reconcilesSIP;Oct5afterclosereversesplit/Oct6adjustedtradingstillconfirmed, ratio unverified, preservemonitor37. CircleSep10USDC74.06bn;7day6.66bnissued/6.91redeemed=>-.25bn(-35.714m/day),30day38.06/36.04=>+2.02bn(+67.333m/day). Oppositesigns reflectwindows. LlamaSep13aggregate74.418078bn isdifferentmethod/cutoff,notproofCircleerror. USDCsiteCMSunparsed, noflowclaim. Premises: claims datedanddefined; noneestablishincrementalETHbuying orfreshpolicyentry. Conclusioncontextonly, nofundedorder. Sources https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1.StrategySep8filed8K coveringAug31–Sep7:0BTCpurchases/sales,0ATMshares;845050BTCholdings,176.3mUSDcashusedfor1810885STRCbuybacks;Sep7reserve5.10bn/cash1.44bn. 2.StriveSep8filed8K coveringAug31–Sep4:1375BTCboughtat79281,holdings24531;cash202.6m(+19.1m),SATAshares+921511to9995425,effectivecommon+1671988to94934558. BTC/effectivecommon+4.0722%;BTC/reportedFD+4.1838%,but26596010traditionalwarrantsharesexcludedfrom98148551FDdenominator. 3. July30Strategyreleasealreadydisclosed218.4mBTCsalesYTD; fundingcanflowtoseniorclaims ratherthannewcoins. Differentperiodsexplainhigherholdingswithzero latestweekbuying. Who benefits: preferredholdersgaincash/repurchase support;commongetsresidualBTCupsideandfinancingrisk. Counterargumentfuturewarrant/ATMreceiptscouldfundlargepurchases; cashavailabilitynotguaranteeddeployment. ASST+119.555%20sessionsyet27.62<28.53priorHIGH; nofreshcostedentry. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526384402/mstr-20260831.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1920406/000162828026060809/asst-20260908.htm ; https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results_07-30-2026 .

Sep8issuerrelease asSep7 14ET:5,929,198ETH,28,086weeklypurchase,5,067,309staked;issuerdenominator122mETH implies4.8600%ownership and170,802gapto5%,not70,802gapto6m. Constantpurchasepace implies6.08weeks excludingrewards/supplychanges,notforecastdeadline. 7dayannualizedyield2.61%and330mUSDannualizedstakingprojection are notcashreceived. Sep8filed8KnewAmericanValidatoradvisoryfee1.5%ofrewards effectiveSep4;onlythisfee reducesyieldto2.57085%andimplies4.95mUSDannualcost on330mprojection, beforeothercosts. SignedSep3terminationpreservesaccruedobligations;nomaterialterminationpenalty reported. Premises actualissuerbuying supportsdemand but onebuyer/oldperiod cannotpricefutureflow. Counterargument stakingcompoundswithoutnewspotpurchase;ownershipshareanddollarNAV cangrowwithoutmarketbuying. BMNR25.03below26.91priorHIGH;ETHfreshentryabsent. Noorder;monitornewpurchases/rewardsseparately. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1829311/000149315226041713/ex99-1.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1829311/000149315226041713/form8-k.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1829311/000149315226041713/ex10-1.htm .

SIP all-adjusted1682dailybars2020Jan2–2026Sep11. Frozen primary L20 close>prior20close AND SMA50; signal atclose, nextopenentry, stop2priorADR20,target6ADR20(3R), max40sessions; gapfillatopen, stopfirstifbothbarriers, entrydayallowed, forcedlastwindowclose. Vectorbt longonly,1bpfees+5bpslippage/side; separate2020–24train and2025–Sep11holdout startingflat. Train-48.9617%,DD54.1759%,7/27wins25.9259%; heldout+10.7920%,DD39.6636%,5/14wins35.7143%; fixedpath15bpslip stress+7.7328%. L10/L40 sensitivities all trainingnegative, not chosen for positiveholdout. CLI diagnostic1440bars65tradesreturn-26.3901%,DD34.7633%,win30.7692%,differentIEXsignalexit, not validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Engine initially allowed short exposure on -inf sell; corrected direction=longonly and asserted portfolio return equals product of fixedcostedtrade returns to1e-8. Preliminary wrong engine numbers never recorded as analysis. Daily barriers idealized versus venue15min/+2Rmanagement and actual dividendcash; no live authorization. TraininghalfKelly0 and current29.44<31.81 imply size0.

1.Sep11SIP FTFT+40.488% to2.88 but20session-11.466%,below3.64priorHIGH. 2.Aug14June30issuer10Q: unrestrictedcash1.921601m,restricted2.295466m,investmentfunds31.386307m,currentliabilities7.559407m;H1continuingOCF-3.214413m andsales.546021m. Cash/currentliabilities=.2542;historicalmonthlyburn.535736m gives3.59months cash-only diagnostic, notrunway forecast becausefundliquidity/receivables/financing excluded. 3.SECrecentfilings latestAug26; absence ofnewfiling isnotproofnonews. Counterargument investmentfundassetsmayprovidefunding; liquidity/redemptiontermsnotverified, do notcallallcurrentassetscash. No verified incrementalcryptoearnings/priceedge, so rejectlarge-move-as-catalyst. Equitybalance44.427616m notassumedliquidNAV; split-adjustedsharedenominatorsrequireaudit beforevaluation. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1066923/000121390026090012/ea0301500-10q_future.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Current Nasdaq directory5605+otherlisted7609=13214security rows; broadnamefilter361, refinedcrypto terms+manualproxies165;163have>=21dailybars andfreshSep11close, HBIT11bars/BITF0. SIPadjustmentall Jun1–Sep11. 16prior20HIGHsignals mostlyETHfunds/incomeproducts plusSTRC: relatedexposure not16independentbets. ASST20return119.555%,27.62<28.53high;CAN57.290%,.3366<.455;BMNR36.851%,25.03<26.91;ETHA34.645%,19.16>19.135;FTFTFriday40.488%but20return-11.466%,2.88<3.64. ETFsessionHIGH versuscontinuousETHHIGH aredifferentwindows. USmovers50eachside and100volumeactives asSep11 23:59 sourcedFTFT/BMNR/ETHA leads. ForeignYahoo:3350.T20+12.670%,60-2.353%,belowSMA200;HUT.TO+18.055/-19.621%,above;9984.T+13.957/-4.942%,above. GLXY.TO/BTCT.AS404,0835.HKmissingclose; USGLXYcovered. Premises namefilter isdiscovery notcompleteeconomicexposure/history; foreignFX/venue unverified. Noequityentry: absentfreshvalidatedrule, ETHfundsrequireownsessionpolicy. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/3350.T . Allrows observations26628–26841.

36 published USD pairs screened over7completedUTCdays Sep6–12 using sum(v*vw); includes stablecoins. Top10 USDC10.350216m,USDG1.899983m,BTC676586,ETH383393,SOL196860,XRP185076,HYPE150323,LTC144752,LINK141496,USDT102726USD. USDG only3/7days; missing days notzero, rank provisional but far above tenth. Dailyprior20CLOSE signals ETH andXTZ; XTZ outside top10, ETH is separate policy from prior480HIGH. RemoteSep13 01UTC closes BTC77295.452 ETH2524.085 SOL102.255 LTC53.8985 XRP1.36796 HYPE79.382 LINK11.5162 allbelowHIGH480; no recent24hHIGH, ETHSep11 22UTCpullbackold/noarm. LocalSep12 dailyOHLCV versus24hour aggregate all3majors agree within2.3e-14%roundoff. Premises valid for observedfeed, not all-exchangevolume/liveAssets or guaranteedfills. Conclusion no universe expansion intoXTZ/ADA just for headline; currententryabsent. Observations26628–26841,26627; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

1. ALM H1 OCF is positive but most reported Q2 net income is noncash; funded ramp is not achieved production. GTP contract concentrates PhaseI customer exposure. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226037264/ex99-1.htm and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226033123/ex99-1.htm . 2. Sandvik shows positive FOCF and integrated feedstock access, but prebuying and weaker conversion challenge durable rents. https://www.home.sandvik/siteassets/investors/reports--presentations/interim-reports/2026/interim-report-second-quarter-2026.pdf . Both have false current L20 signals; ALM294 US daily bars do not support 2020–24 training and foreign execution is unverified. 3. ON Aug3 Q2 FCF425.4m and AI growth support recovery; no measured physical shortage in that release, and76.14<83.38 prior20. https://investor.onsemi.com/news-releases/news-release-details/onsemi-reports-second-quarter-2026-results . 4. BDC Q2 orders836m/bookbill1.11 and FCF88.570m are real, but H1FCF25.512m<32.232m; 3pp revenue growth is copper pass-through, not evidence of incremental profit.122.26<137.59 prior20. https://investor.belden.com/news/news-details/2026/Belden-Reports-Record-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx . Reject automatic long inference from Friday price strength. Update watch if profitable incremental supply/delivery economics and independently tested entry appear; no order.

Start: export-constrained primary feedstock and expensive inventories. Goal: locate persistent distributable cash; binding constraint is paid output at replacement cost, not announced selling price. First order: ore suppliers ALM/GTP chain obtain improved contract economics, while toolmakers price ahead of replenishment. Second order: working capital absorbs cash and customers prebuy or switch tools; Sandvik integration partly protects access, not all cash conversion. Third order: ramped mine supply and recycling/substitution can compress prices and write down stocked material before selling prices reset. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226033123/ex99-1.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm ; https://www.home.sandvik/siteassets/investors/reports--presentations/interim-reports/2026/interim-report-second-quarter-2026.pdf . Premises support differentiated exposure, not blanket producer buys. Strong bull: supply qualification is slow and customers pay to avoid downtime. Strong bear: pull-forward demand and inventory repricing. Facts end at published disclosures; future price compression is a scenario. Three issuer clusters plus one unverified customer cluster, not repeated citations as independent evidence. No trade.