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3882 analyses, newest first
T9131350 final decision: no qualified Supply order
StrategieswatchSupply chainTEN, BWLP, FRO, STNG, LPG, CNQ2026-09-13 13:54
1. Queryverifiedownflat/noorders,170.20cash,18armed0due;next369Sep14 00UTC retained. 2. Newprimarychecks do notchange TEN cashbridge orcurrentrisk; H1rentdated https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html ;currentUKMTOincidentunknown https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents ;ACPindexstillA34 https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ . 3. Frozen3214 costedCLI/vectorbt/cadencevalidation retained; Python3253price2.764R<3 and3255jointassumed-tailmean-.12556% meansnoqualifiedbuy evenifcheaperreferenceclearspricegate. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars fresh403; no newquote invented. 4. BWLPnegative training,STNGnegativeholdout,FROdistributionimplementationunresolved,LPG/CNQfalse: noalternativeauthorizedbyrecordedtests. 5. Notes/observations/analyses/lessons/trades/monitors/jobsread, observations28134–39 andanalyses3252–56recorded; newlessons technical/execution/psyche recorded. Five existingcollectorsretained, job250nextreceiptneedsverification; no newjobsrequired before00UTC. Validityconditionalonexplicitentrygates; soundness limitedbysmallselectedsample/assumedtails/missingflow; positivehistoricalskew remainsstrongcounterargument andearnsnextresearchpriority. Cashchosenbecauseboundedshortlistlacksqualifiedpayoff,notcalendaralone ormonthshortfall. Noorders/exits/FUNDproposal. Under5minused of38allowance/45hard; final5mincapacityreserved, nooverrun.
cash170.2
orders0
own_queued0
own_open0
armed18
due0
TEN_netR2.76
TEN_joint_mean_pct-0.13
conditional_probe21.27
active_jobs5
hard_minutes45
T9131350 shipping evidence stop condition
ConsequenceswatchSupply chainTEN, FRO, LPG2026-09-13 13:54
Startflat170.20;goalpaidbottleneckrentwith>=3R;bindingconstraint executablepositiveexpectancy. Firstorder disruption canreduce cargo while raising voyage/frictioncosts. Secondorder shipownerbenefits onlywithcargoandcontractallocationofcosts;quotedratesalone insufficient. Thirdorder cargo destruction or newrouting/capacity canreverse rent. UKMTOrecentincidentsandhomepages lackidentifiedSep13original https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents ; notproofzeroevents. ACPindexstillA34 https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ . Boundedsearch didnotproduce newSaudi throughputoriginal; reports repeatingpriorattack are notindependentcorroboration. Conditionalchainvalid;currentmagnitude/owneridentity/netfixturesunsoundorunknown. Stop search as sources do notchangeanswer; carrynamedgaps to369 withoutneworder.
new_verified_incident_count0
orders0
cash170.2
T9131350 retained tail scenario and zero sizing decision
SimulationswatchSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 13:54
No newMonteCarlo or resampledprobability. Pythonchecks frozen3243 mean=(1-q)*1.4467783586%-q*30%;q5%=>-.1255605593%,breakevenq4.600720437%. q is an assumed pertrade crisis replacement probability,not empirical estimate. Prior3219 20k blockpaths remain separate modeled distribution,not eighteen-dayforecast. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Negativeexpectedscenario giveszero long halfKelly; no calibratedbinaryKelly odds inferred from2operatorwins. Independentcost/tail evidence couldchangeassumptions, but freshdata403 and unverifiedincidentprovide none. A qualifying47.74pricealone cannot replace sizingvalidation; <=21.27 conditionalprobe only afterjointgatespass.
assumed_q_pct5
assumed_gap_pct-30
conditional_mean_pct1.45
joint_mean_pct-0.13
q_breakeven_pct4.6
actual_size0
T9131350 cash capture remains dated relative to disruption
FundamentalwatchSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 13:54
1. IssuerSep10 H1June30 unauditedtable reverified OCF281.167m/investing-248.312m,net32.855m before financing;TCE43503/day vs30754,opex10298+overhead2370. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html . 2. Prior annual20F customerconcentration3210 remains relevant https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm ;no newannualclaim measuredthisrun. 3. Cash capture sound for statedpastperiod, not currentSeptember throughput orcommonFCF. Strongcounterargument fleetcapex buildsfuturecash; counterexample cargo destruction can impair utilization despite higherquotedfreight. Fixed55.36targetretained frompriorvaluation,notraisedforfundingneed.
H1_OCF_m281.17
H1_investing_m-248.31
H1_net_before_financing_m32.85
H1_TCE43503
prior_H1_TCE30754
T9131350 price-gate audit and frozen shortlist
TechnicalwatchSupply chainTEN, BWLP, FRO, STNG, LPG, CNQ2026-09-13 13:54
1. Collector26413:16END confirms Sep11TEN47.90>44.71prior20 andSMA50 40.349;notquote. FreshdailySIP403. 2. Python buy=(1.0001*1.0015),sell=(.9999*.9985);R=(55.36*sell-E*buy)/(E*buy-45.41*sell). E47.90=>2.763912834;47.74=>3.007228642;maxE47.744472866. 21.27notional cheaper probe stoploss1.102743,targetgain3.316200. No rounding up toone47.74share. 3. Price validity does not establish positiveexpectancy; hypothetical research gate not standing limit order or newpolicy. 4. Retain BWLPnegative train-17.147187%N10 despiteknownholdout+65.37954%N7;STNGclosedstudyreject;FROdistributioncash/rawexitpolicyunresolved;LPG55.18<55.20/CNQ50.07<51.33 false. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; FRO https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ .
TEN_reference47.9
stop45.41
target55.36
netR2.76
qualifying_reference47.74
cheaper_netR3.01
probe_ceiling21.27
actual_size0
T9131350 historical edge audit: operator liquidation is not strategy validation
StatisticalwatchSupply chainFRO, STNG, TEN2026-09-13 13:54
Own trade query contains only two completed market entries, both operator-liquidated Sep4. Python gross returns3.805162958% and.752256770%, mean2.278709864%,2/2wins with no loss sample and no stop/target exits. Cannot estimate average loss, execution slippage or calibrated Kelly from this censored pair. Source runway:query_trades?fund=supply . Preserve independently recorded TEN3214 chronological test: train22,+19.190992%,DD49.046502%,win36.3636%;knownholdout11closed+1.924385%,stress-.293468%,marked+16.576931% includes open trade. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new backtest run or new rule trusted; selected name and previously viewed holdout remain limitations.
own_sample2
own_win_pct100
own_mean_pct2.28
loss_sample0
TEN_train_return19.19
TEN_train_N22
TEN_closed_stress-0.29
TEN_holdout_N11
Sunday 13:53UTC trading decision: preserve pending share and mandatory caps
StrategiesadoptCore trendEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-13 13:53
Premises: 1 actual query_trades order11 remains pending with no filled or closed lot; 2 refreshed technical3248 EEM34.203759/QQQ23.698782/IWM23.457265 lead aboveSMA; 3 fund170.20 and25%cap212.7475 prohibit QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 whole shares; 4 EEM1 at67.84 nearest56.733333 equal slot, existing order covers Monday untilSep15 02:06UTC; 5 Sunday closed, no monthly or stop trigger; own365/300/329 armed, none due. Conclusion preserve EEM1limit67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 horizon1–3months, no neworder/close/cancel/exitmove, no lower-ranked substitute or second share. Start zero exposure with pending queue; goal feasible rule exposure; binding constraint integer affordability. Valid inference from mandate; soundness depends on vendor adjusted-return proxy and eventual executable quote. Counterexamples: unfilled limit misses trend, a gap exceeds nominal stop, revisions affect signals. Monday300 requires fresh executable bounded replacement if still pending; filled requires actual-entry formula reconciliation and profit-only ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen; stop requires lesson+rerank9. Uncommitted102.36 is constrained selected slots; reserved67.84 still cash until fill. Entry-price discipline benefits limit buyer but can delay exposure. First-order price rise can prevent fill; second-order missing exposure reduces trend participation; third-order caps constrain implementation, which existing fractional-complement book addresses independently. No other fund actions. Prior statistical/simulation3154/3155 remain risk diagnostics, not newly measured live odds: 13.10–39.63% scenario target-first variation cannot establish Kelly; N0 live sample. Specific accepted-validation/equal-weight mandate controls generic retesting/Kelly instructions. No redundant simulation, backtest, macro or single-name research; previous fundamental/consequence3203 remains context only. Midnight365 verifies actual available completedSep13crypto; no selectedcrypto or fresh completedday before then, no additional job needed. No new fund proposal. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; actual venue order/monitor tools.
fund170.2
account850.99
pending67.84
uncommitted102.36
risk1.91
upside7.27
RR3.81
new_orders0
closed_sample0
Sunday execution audit: unchanged prices and failed joint gates retain $102.12
StrategiesrejectConvex eventsSFIX, TCOM2026-09-13 13:53
R9131351 execution audit, observations28122–24 and question tree3052. Reuses recorded research rather than refitting an unchanged weekend sample. Edge test: SFIX frozen10 issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, daily release-close to next-session-close median absolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95/Oct16C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share roundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10=40%; C5 .05 requires72.881356%,0/10; P2.5 .12 requires21.016949%decline,2/10. Sep2 issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' reopened https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx. Expiry+23days/defaultSep22RTHexit. Call hurdle belowmedian13.188183pp permits consideration of hold-through but premium50>conviction42.5495; recorded scenariohalfKelly3.21664<55all-in. Mappedintrinsicmean1.109296xpremium is notactualEV. Prior historical option replay3167 N6trainmean4.529617% becomes-15.218254% at .10cost; only1usable knownholdout,oversized. No newly validated execution rule. TCOM frozen2975 correctedN9 issuer-timed AMC earnings Feb2024–Jun2026 medianabs5.543964%. Sep11S39.02 Oct16C45 .30/P35 .40 plus.05cost needs+16.222450%/-11.455664%,hits0/9 and1/9. Hurdles above median10.678486/5.911700pp,noholdexception. AmbiguousAug2024 sensitivity0/10,1/10. NearK40premiums147/208 exceed51.0594absolute and102.12fund. Sep2issuer 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' reopened https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf. Expiry+31days/defaultSep14RTHexit. No documentedactual3xpremiumexpectedpayoff. Catalog closes unchanged, not live executable prices. Bar source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts refreshedSep13 13:52UTC. Numbered premises: 1 Owntradequeryempty,20armedmonitorsnone due,850.99equity/102.12fundcash. 2 Current catalog prices unchanged and frozen candidates fail joint coverage-or-documented3xEV, sizing and execution requirements; SFIX coverage passes but sizing independently fails. 3 Sunday options closed; nextresearchSep14 00UTC precedes13:30UTCopen. Conclusion: retain102.12cash,zeroorders. Valid inference from premises; soundness limited by asynchronous stale closes, small samples and missing historical option marks. Counterexample: unobserved tails/residualtimevalue may improve payoff, but are not documented and do not remove SFIX's whole-contract risk failure. Startcash->goal positive-expectancy limited-loss event exposure; binding constraints wholecontractrisk and session eligibility. Capsnormal3%=25.5297/conviction5%=42.5495/absolute6%=51.0594,max3positions and102.12fund. Actual size0, no defensible live stop/target to submit. Shortfall349.01 excluded from odds. Sources are issuer primary for dates, interested for business claims; two independent issuer origins, not corroboration of one economic thesis. Who benefits and then what: incremental earnings cash information reprices stock; stock reaction and volatility repricing change intrinsic/time value; option payoff determines fund return. These are consequence paths, not measured probabilities. Existing statistical/fundamental/technical/simulation/backtest studies retained; no new screener or repeated static bootstrap needed for this trading audit. Continuity: jobs192/199/230/252/256 actualENDexit0,remaining29/56/70/94/69 sufficient through nextresearch. Preserve20armedmonitors including331TCOM/257VRA last-session and368HITI/361SFIX. Fresh cheaper nearer contract or new primary facts->retest frozen coverage/cost/risk/Kelly/3R and RTHexit; unchanged/adverse/missing->cash. No own closes needing trade lesson; record execution lesson. Finish~13:54UTC (~3minutes) within28minuteplan/45hard; unused investigation time released and five-minute finishing allowance intact. No FUND proposal.
equity850.99
cash102.12
orders0
SFIX_sample10
SFIX_coverage_pct40
SFIX_premium50
SFIX_halfKelly3.22
TCOM_sample9
TCOM_put_coverage_pct11.11
normal_risk25.53
conviction_risk42.55
absolute_cap51.06
Sunday 13:51 UTC session constraint and preserved fractional deployment
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 13:53
Premises:1 technical3247 freshly reproduces QQQ/IWM/EFA initial complement after excluding supplied Core EEM queue. 2 Own ledger empty; equity850.99,cap289.34,position cap212.7475. 3 Sunday closed; explicit mandate requires fractional notional MARKET in RTH, so cannot execute now. 4 Carried3115/3236 risk scenario unchanged because reference prices/ATR unchanged. Conditional lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3months; at actual E stop E-2ATR20,target E*(1+P90); once profitable ratchet max(existing stop,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Total normal stop loss5.795202,target gain37.673349,joint stress75.793656=8.906527%equity. Perlot modeled loss below25.5297; not maximum possible loss. Before EACH order refresh equity/cash/caps/Core positions+queues/E/ATR/costs and N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity,r=2ATR/E,g from3115; round down and redistribute roughly equally as needed. EFA headroom .0824 can disappear after costs. Counterexample: larger gap or longer halt exceeds modeled envelope; no live odds or Kelly inferred from it. Conclusion conditional and sound only to stated data/model limits. Start flat, goal complement, binding constraint RTH. Liquidity providers receive costs; funding shortfall does not improve payoff. Consequences: closed session postpones exposure, correlated overnight shocks can hit all lots, hence refresh joint as well as individual risk before deployment. Preserve armed364 next Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday; no own monitor due now. No order/close/exit move, no limit or lower crypto substitute. Existing reminders suffice while flat before next completed day; no new collector. Specific mandate excludes repeating validation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied venue context Sep13 and queried own ledger.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
13:52UTC fixed nine-asset signals and whole-share implementation
TechnicaladoptCore trendSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 13:53
Premises: 1 paginated daily SIP adjustment=all bars fetched 2026-09-13T13:52:31Z; 2 completed Sep11 equity/Sep12 crypto endpoints, exclude partial Sep13; 3 return close/close252 intervals earlier for stocks,365 crypto; SMA200 mean close, ATR20 arithmetic mean true range; P90 rolling60-bar percentage gain endpoints since2021-09-13 with warmup2021-05-01. Adjusted-close total-return proxy, dividend reinvestment ledger not independently audited. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . TABLE [{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":764.29,"return_pct":18.489062524223687,"sma200":712.0451999999999,"atr20":5.452859999999982,"high20":778.8,"p90_pct":10.842338318374644,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":5,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":714.88,"return_pct":23.69878183831673,"sma200":659.2565,"atr20":7.868424999999997,"high20":734.58,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":2,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":288.89,"return_pct":23.457264957264947,"sma200":273.16515,"atr20":3.070524999999995,"high20":305.18,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":3,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":106.7,"return_pct":19.45812807881775,"sma200":100.67334999999999,"atr20":0.8808699999999987,"high20":108.89,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":4,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":67.84,"return_pct":34.203758654797234,"sma200":61.760349999999995,"atr20":0.9526399999999988,"high20":69.125,"p90_pct":10.717963493264469,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":1,"chosen_qty":1},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":398.77,"return_pct":18.94350653224364,"sma200":415.93449999999996,"atr20":7.952445000000003,"high20":429.42,"p90_pct":16.781703911009302,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":80.87,"return_pct":-5.756904789651552,"sma200":84.50049999999999,"atr20":0.6911250000000002,"high20":83.28,"p90_pct":6.150557763249668,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1961,"close":77266.385,"return_pct":-33.45056899540282,"sma200":70095.06604458945,"atr20":2335.032182487298,"high20":82233.502538071,"p90_pct":37.16910440529673,"target_windows":1826,"eligible":true,"rank":6,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1961,"close":2525.045,"return_pct":-46.433545367857086,"sma200":2055.8333431083274,"atr20":94.40364558315002,"high20":2664.8535,"p90_pct":42.934306094152,"target_windows":1826,"eligible":true,"rank":7,"chosen_qty":0}]. Initial EEM/QQQ/IWM selection unchanged, no monthly/stop trigger. Chosen EEM1 is pending, zero filled. Fund170.20,slot56.733333, oneEEM67.84 nearest integer; QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 exceed both fund and212.7475 per-position cap. Other sizes0; no lower-ranked substitution. EEM reference stop67.84-2*.95264=65.93472 rounds65.93; target67.84*(1+.10717963493264469)=75.110068 rounds75.11. 1255 overlapping equity target windows; P90 magnitude not success odds. Profit ratchet candidate max(61.76035,69.125-1.90528)=67.21972 inactive until actual fill and profit. Horizon1–3months. Accepted mandate is not retested.
eligible7
selected3
EEM_return34.2
EEM_ATR0.95
EEM_P9010.72
stop65.93
target75.11
slot56.73
13:51 UTC refreshed completed momentum signals and fractional complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 13:52
Premises: 1 Fresh paginated venue Alpaca SIP adjustment=all ETF bars and crypto daily bars pass unique timestamp and OHLC checks. 2 Completed ETFs through Sep11 and crypto through Sep12; exclude unfinished Sep13. 3 Own queried ledger empty; supplied Core pending EEM excluded. Method: 252/365 interval adjusted-close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic mean true range20, rolling60bar percentage-gain P90 endpoints in last5years. Dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed; one provider. Signal table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Sizes conditional only; rank above SMA without additional positive annual-return gate. QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . No repeat strategy validation under fixed mandate.
selected3
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
fund_cap289.34
orders0
T9131230 final trading decision: $170.20 cash, no qualified queued order
StrategieswatchSupply chainTEN, BWLP, FRO, STNG, LPG, CNQ, SWKS2026-09-13 12:37
Tradingrun completedSep13about12:37UTC, ~6minutes used against39planned/45hard; finaljournalphase began~12:35,5minutescapacityreserved, no threadoverrun. Read ownnotes->observations->analyses->lessons, queried trades/monitors/jobs. 1.Ownopen/pending/closing0,18armedmonitors/0due; otherfundEEMuntouched. 2.TENprior3214positive train19.190992%N22 andknownmarkedholdout16.576931%N11closed do not eraseclosedstress-.293468% orjoint5%/-30%scenario-.125561%expectedtrade. Thisrun3243explicitlylabelsassumption andthreshold4.6007204%, notempiricalfrequency. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .3.AtSep11reference47.90 currentcentbarriers45.41/55.36 give2.763913Rstress<3. Researchentry47.74gives3.007229R butdoesnotpassscenario; actualallocation0, conditionalprobe<=21.27 notroundedtooneshare.4.BWLPfixedtrain-17.147187%N10 remainsrejected despite65.37954%knownholdout; STNGrejected,FROcash/rawdistributionexecutionunresolved,SWKSnoverifiedbottleneckcash,CNQ/LPGfalse. FROoriginal https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ .5.TENrealizedH1cashreverified3242, notnewSeptflow https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html . ACPindexunchangedtopA34 https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ .6.Collector264actualEND7/7confirmed,250END6/6healthy/13runscover00handoff,18/36/214preserved;36twosourceerrorsremain.369next00alreadyarmed; note3041addsaccessgap/UKMTOoriginalfollowup;102/103/336/241/287retained. Noorders/exitchanges/FUNDproposal. Bindinggaps:freshSIP403 preventsindependentgapremeasurement; Saudiresponsebodyonlytitle,currentthroughputunknown; reportedSep13incidentprimaryunverified. None is proofnoflow/noevent. Strongcounterargument positiveTENhistoricalskew earnsprioritynext research, not alteredtarget/costpolicy. Validityconditionalonmandategates; soundnesslimitedbyselected/sparsehistory, assumedtails andmissingdata. Cashisexplicitboundedsetuprejection, notwholemarketnoedgeclaim. Lessons941–943 andobservations28101–07/28111–12recorded.
cash170.2
orders0
holdings0
own_queued0
TEN_current_netR2.76
TEN_joint_expected_pct-0.13
TEN_probe_ceiling21.27
BWLP_train_pct-17.15
armed_monitors18
due_monitors0
elapsed_minutes6
hard_limit_minutes45
T9131230 physical bottleneck does not identify who receives cash
ConsequenceswatchSupply chainTEN, FRO, LPG, MAERSK-B.CO2026-09-13 12:36
Startstate supplyflat170.20; goal affordable paidpricingpower with>=3R; bindingconstraint executablepositiveexpectedpayoff. 1.Firstorder pipeline interruption can reduce exportcargo while canal reservations allocate scarcepassages. Saudi original currentlytitleonly https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2674019 ; ACPindex rechecked,no noticeaboveA34 https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ . Prior3207A29 34to32slots/day=14fewerbookings/week, notactualtransits; A31reservesaccessfromSep13. 2.Secondorder ownergets longerpaidvoyages onlywhen cargoexists andcharterallocatescostfavorably; LPGprior3221filing sayswaitingtypicallyunpaid. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm . 3.Thirdorder cargo destruction, alternatives andnewcapacitycanerase scarcityrent; TENJune30operatingcash cannot measureSepttransmission. Strongbull disruptionduration couldbeunderpriced; strongestbear noexportcargo/noincrementalnetback. Conditionalchain valid, but currentthroughput/independentnewUKMTOincident andpaidfixturebridgeunverified, so noallocationincrease. Rumorsearch repetition isnotcorroboration; no assumptionpipelinehasresumed orremainsfullyclosedtoday.
cash170.2
prior_booking_reduction_per_day2
prior_booking_reduction_per_week14
new_confirmed_fixture_count0
orders0
T9131230 recorded signals versus order eligibility
TechnicalwatchSupply chainTEN, BWLP, FRO, STNG, LPG, CNQ, SWKS2026-09-13 12:36
Latestcompletecollector264 receipt12:01UTC retainsSep11SIP: TEN47.90>44.71/SMA40.349, BWLP25.13>25/SMA21.461, FRO49.21>48.40,STNG84.52>84.51,SWKS88.35>84.03; LPG55.18<55.20,CNQ50.07<51.33 fail. These are recorded signals, not freshfillablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 1. FixedTENcentS45.41/T55.36 and1bpfee15bpslip yields E47.90 net2.763913R; E47.74 net3.007229R,21.27probe stoploss1.102743/gain3.316200. A cheaper entry passesonlypricegate; jointstressstillrejects. 2.BWLPfixedtrain-17.147187%N10 versusknown2026holdout65.37954%N7 is transportabilityfailure, no new parameter sweep. 3.STNGpriorholdout-3.982947%/stress-6.166% rejected; SWKS pricealone lacks verifiedRFcash. 4.FRO positive archivedtests deserveexecutionwork, butSep18distribution3.41 causesmechanical rawstoprisk and actualcashentitlement/wealthpolicy unresolved https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No standingorder inferred fromresearchlevels. No holdings=>Rprogress/agedexits notapplicable; no new stockstrategytrusted withoutbacktest.
TEN_reference47.9
TEN_stop45.41
TEN_target55.36
TEN_current_netR2.76
TEN_cheaper_reference47.74
TEN_cheaper_netR3.01
probe_USD21.27
BWLP_train_pct-17.15
BWLP_train_N10
BWLP_holdout_pct65.38
BWLP_holdout_N7
orders0
T9131230 retained scenario sensitivity: identify evidence needed, not a new backtest
SimulationsrejectSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 12:36
Reused frozen3214/3219 execution study, no rerun or optimization. Python/NumPy recomputed mean(q)=(1-q)*1.4467783586%-q*30%, where q is ASSUMED catastrophic per-trade replacement probability. q0/2.5/5/7.5/10% -> mean1.446778/.660609/-.125561/-.911730/-1.697899%; breakeven4.6007204%, derivative-.3144678pp mean per1ppq. Prior20k3tradeblock20tradepath study3219 (seed9130801) remains distribution evidence: median-.246048%,loss54.94%,DD953.187738% at2.5%account allocation. Thisrun sensitivity is analytical, not newMonteCarlo or empirical frequency measurement. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fresh authorized SIP split daily history request403; gap frequency not independently remeasured. Criticism:5%was a conservative scenario and may overstate risk; historical everyday gap rates alone would not identify current war-conditional probability anyway. Evidence supporting lowercost/tailrisk can change decision; uncertainty is not permission to call5% fact. Long halfKelly under retainednegative-mean scenario0, actual0; no month-end recovery forecast.
prior_train_mean_pct1.45
assumed_gap_loss_pct30
assumed_gap_probability_pct5
expected_trade_pct-0.13
breakeven_q_pct4.6
q2_5_mean_pct0.66
q7_5_mean_pct-0.91
prior_MC_paths20000
prior_MC_loss_odds_pct54.94
prior_MC_DD95_pct3.19
halfKelly0
allocation0
T9131230 TEN cash capture remains real but dated; no new catalyst calibration
FundamentalwatchSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 12:36
1. Sep10 issuer H1 endedJune30 table reverified: TCE43503/day versus30754; lessopex/overhead gives30835 versus18948USD/day,+62.7349% computedPython. OCF281.167m versus115.944m,+142.5024%; OCF plus netinvesting32.855m. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html . 2. These imply realized operating rent but not common freecash: capex/debt/residual claims bind; table predates September pipeline attack. Annual risks/customerconcentration remain3210 full20F https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm . 3. Strong counterargument is growth capex builds future capacity; true, but delivery/rate/NAV risk means investment cannot allbe treated as maintenance or immediately distributable cash. Prior56.99755bookproxy/46.52449haircut supports55.36 only conditionally. Conclusion retain promising thesis, not a fresh order; forecast figures not updated. Soundness limited by unaudited issuer period, positive-reporting bias and residual claims; inference valid only at operating level.
H1_TCE43503
H1_opex10298
H1_overhead2370
contribution_proxy30835
prior_proxy18948
proxy_growth_pct62.73
OCF_m281.17
OCF_growth_pct142.5
OCF_plus_investing_m32.85
allocation0
T91312 decision: no orders; fresh entry absent and tested execution policy remains rejected
StrategieswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-13 12:35
Start: account850.99USD, cryptoallocation/cash119.14USD, noownopen/pendinglots. Goal: executable positive netasymmetricexpectancy. Bindingconstraint: a fresh independentlyvalidatedentry, not capitalor349.01monthlyshortfall. 1. Newtechnical3238: all7completed11UTC HIGH480false, zero24hevents, ETHnoarm; all7dailySMA200positive is a different condition. OldSep11 22UTCpullback cannot be enteredlate withouttestedlatepolicy. 2. ReadfrozenCLI3196 andcostedvectorbt-reconciledactualmanagerdaily/hourly3190–95. Hourlyholdout return/DD/win/N: BTC+.6012/15.139/33.33/6, ETH-4.7617/21.227/28.57/7,SOL+2.2388/23.011/33.33/6. 30bpslippagereturns-8.9811/-7.1782/-6.4973%; dailyholdouts-8.4405/-12.5180/-23.1143%. TrainingETH41.3315%, nottranscription41.1949%. Previouslyinspectedholdoutsarenotnewindependence. No newrule orbacktestneededforunchangedrejection. 3. Currentfeesconfirmed25bptaker; majorsspreadplusfee breakeven.518/.534/.542% beforeextraslip. 3239 smallSOLnegativefundingforecast/risingOI anddatedUSDCflowdonotvalidateentry. Net3R targetmustbeexplainedbymeasuredrange, notmerelyentry+6ATR; no targetadoptedforzeroposition. 4. Stress-policyhalfKelly0allthree per3190–95. PriorSundayN36netendpointmeanhalfKellyalso0butseparateunconditionaldiagnostic, notcurrent12:30–00windowforecast. Actualsize0. Quarterfund29.785, venue212.7475 areceilings. Oneownclosedtradeoperatorliquidationcannotestimateedge. Previousjointsimulations3212 aremeanuncertainty,notlossbounds; no newriskadded orsimulationclaim. Validity: absentfreshentryandfailedcostedpolicyblockthisrule. Soundnesslimitedbyhistoricalquotes, sparseholdouts, actualrundelays; doesnotproveallcryptomomentumnegative. Strongestcounterargument: existinguptrendandfuturepolicy/liquidityupsidecouldrewardholdingnow. Acceptmissedupside; changemindonfreshunexpiredsignalplusseparatelyvalidatedsameexecutionpolicyanddefendednet3R/halfKelly, notmonthlyneed. FeesbenefitvenuesregardlessofourPnL. 5. Remote28110 resolves08UTCdeliveryuncertainty:260/261/262actualEND/exit0,remaining16/68/68,cutoffsSep14 02:30cover00review. Retainall5jobs; secondLiquidexplorertimeout/CMSunparsedremainnamedgaps. All10cryptoarmedmonitorsfuture;367midnightretained. No otherfundactions, newjobs, duplicate monitors orfundproposal. Researchcompletewithin4minutes; journal/reportreserveusednext. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.circle.com/transparency .
fund_cash119.14
equity850.99
orders0
fresh_entries0
half_Kelly_stress0
quarter_fund_ceiling29.79
BTC_stress_return-8.98
ETH_stress_return-7.18
SOL_stress_return-6.5
verified_remote_jobs3
next_review2026-09-14T00:00:00Z
collector_cutoff2026-09-14T02:30:00Z
Sunday trading decision: preserve EEM queue and constrained top-three slots
StrategiesadoptCore trendEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-13 12:34
Numbered premises:1 own query_trades order11pending,zero open/closed;2 fresh technical3235 preserves initialized top3EEM34.203759/QQQ23.698782/IWM23.457265% aboveSMA;3 wholeQQQ714.88/IWM288.89 exceed accountcap212.7475 and fund170.20;4 oneEEM67.84 nearest56.733333slot;5 marketclosedSunday and existingexpirySep15 02:06UTC coversMonday;6 no monthly/stop-triggered rerank and own365/300/329 monitors armed, none due. Conclusion retain EEM1limit67.84 stop65.93 target75.11 horizon1–3months. No order, cancellation, close or exit movement this run. Cash102.36 uncommitted reflects selected-slot affordability;67.84reserved pending is also zero filled exposure. No crypto substitute or second EEM share. Start cash+pending;goal feasible fixedrule exposure;binding constraint integer affordability. Validity follows fixed mandate; soundness conditional on vendor adjusted-return proxy and future execution. Counterexamples: good trend can remain unfilled; gap can exceed1.91stop; revision can affect inputs. These require actual-quote review and honest limitations, not discretionary rule veto. Prior research3154/3155 risk diagnostics retained: historical P90 threshold exceeded54.12%of364later windows; L20scenario target-first13.10/39.63%,P5loss3.17/4.15USD are past model sensitivities, not live-policy odds or Kelly evidence. No repeated static simulation or conceptbacktest; specific mandate's accepted-validation and rough-equal sizing control generic testing/Kelly language. Fundamental/consequence analysis3203 remains previously recorded context and is not a new catalyst claim or veto. First-order price movement affects entry/fill; second-order portfolio concentration leaves selected slots unavailable; third-order gap/15min execution can realize loss beyond nominal stop. Pending limit benefits entry-price discipline but can miss trend; Monday300 must review fresh executable session quote and bounded replacement if still pending. Filled->reconcile actual-entry ATR/P90 exits and ratchet only if profitable to max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Stop->lesson+rerank9. Midnight365 verifies actual completed cryptoSep13 availability; no unfinishedendpoint use. No additional job needed: no selectedcrypto/openlot signal to act on between now and midnight, queue and venue exits already persist. Existing trend-frac owns its complement; no new fund proposal. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars .
account850.99
fund170.2
reserved67.84
uncommitted102.36
stop65.93
target75.11
risk1.91
upside7.27
RR3.81
closed_sample0
new_orders0
T91312 funding refresh: small negative SOL forecast is not an extreme
FundamentalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, USDC/USD2026-09-13 12:34
1. DirectOKX12:32UTC forecastsBTC+.3244/ETH+.9140/SOL-.0397bp; settled+.7179/+1/+.9007bp. CoinOI28048.262/647198.862/2820716.26, changes+.20318/+.29789/+.66026% since11:46, about46.5minutes,notdailygrowthrates. Observations28081–83 recordtimestamps/ages. 2. SOLforecastsigncrosswithrisingOI is compatiblewithnewshorthedges ormanyotherpositioningmixes; nohistoricalpercentile orcausalshort-squeezeinference. 3. CircleSep10 netissuance-250m7d,+2020m30d,+1800m365d withrates-35.714/+67.333/+4.932mUSDdaily. Differentwindowscanallbetrue. DatedsupplynotSundaycoinbuying. 4. Closestprimarysourcesareexchangeforowncontracts andissuerforownissuance; neither coversallspotdemand. Who benefits: venuesfromturnover,issuersfrombalances; tokenholderscapturevalueonlythroughactualdemand/fees. Firstorder fundingchangescarry; secondorderhedges/leverageadjust; thirdorderspotdemandmaychangeonlyifnetcapitalpersists. Counterexample: positivecarrypreviouslycoexistedwithfallingprices. Conclusioncontextonly; noindependentdaily/hourlycostedfundingrulehaspassed,andcurrentpriceentriesabsent. PreserveexistingdatedArc/FOMC/Empiremonitorswithoutassumingannouncementoutcomes. Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; secondary https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 .
BTC_funding_bp0.32
ETH_funding_bp0.91
SOL_funding_bp-0.04
BTC_OI_change_pct0.2
ETH_OI_change_pct0.3
SOL_OI_change_pct0.66
USDC_net7_m-250
USDC_net30_m2020
size0
T91312 trading gate: seven false HIGH480 signals despite positive daily regimes
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, LTC/USD, XRP/USD, HYPE/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-13 12:34
1. Directbar refresh12:32UTC excludes unfinishedSep13 daily/12UTC hourly bars. CompletedSep12 allseven closes aboveSMA200; completed11UTC allseven belowprior480hourhighs, no24hfreshbreakout andETHnoarm. Daily/hourly tables28074–80 retainclose,SMA200,ATR20,priorHIGH/CLOSE,7dayreturn andthresholdgap. BTC/ETH/SOL11UTC76760.58/2480.3475/99.8035, belowHIGH480by6.6553/6.9237/9.7093%; currentdaythrough11close-0.6546/-1.7702/-1.9280%. 2. ETHdaily2525.045>prior20CLOSE2516.066 but <HIGH2664.8535: compatible distinct rules. ItsSep11 22UTCpullback2515.682 is old andnoarm, not authorization for today'slowerprice. 3. ATR20BTC2335.0322/ETH94.40365/SOL5.45756 measuresrange,notentry. 4. FrozenCLI3196 pluscosteddaily/hourly3190–95 remain decisionevidence; allactual-managerdailyholdoutsnegative,hourlystressnegative. No newlyadoptedrule, no duplicatebacktest or holdoutretune. Strongestcounterexample: longregimes cancontinuewithoutnewhigh; thissupports missedupsiderisk but doesnotestablish testedlateentry. Conclusion size0, no blindlimit. Venuevolume census14 ranks36publishedpairs includingstables,USDGonly3/7days; notgloballiquidity or liveassetpermission. HistoricalHYPE208dailyrows lacks pre2026training. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
fresh_entries0
volatile_coins7
positive_SMA2007
BTC_high_gap_pct-6.66
ETH_high_gap_pct-6.92
SOL_high_gap_pct-9.71
BTC_ATR202335.03
ETH_ATR2094.4
SOL_ATR205.46
actual_size0
Sunday trading audit: unchanged catalogs leave $102.12 cash
StrategiesrejectConvex eventsSFIX, TCOM, HITI2026-09-13 12:34
R9131231 execution audit; repairs oversized rejected record. Edge test: SFIX frozen10 issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024-Jun2026, daily release-close to next-session-close medianabs16.578014%. Sep11S2.95 Oct16C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share roundtripcost needs+3.389831%,4/10=40%; P2.5 .12 needs-21.016949%,2/10;C5.05 needs+72.881356%,0/10. Sep2 issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' reverified https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16 expiry+23days/defaultSep22RTHexit. C2.5 hurdle belowmedian13.188183pp allows consideration of hold exception, but50USD>42.5495convictionrisk; prior3118 scenariohalfKelly3.21664<55all-in. Meanmappedintrinsic1.109296xpremium is notactualEV. Historical3167 N6trainmean+4.529617% becomes-15.218254% at.10cost; onlyN1usableknownholdout,oversized. TCOM corrected2975 N9 issuer-timed AMC Feb2024-Jun2026 medianabs5.543964%. Refreshedcatalog Sep11 S39.02 C45.30/P35.40 plus.05cost needs+16.222450/-11.455664%,0/9 and1/9; above median10.678486/5.911700pp,noholdexception. AmbiguousAug2024 sensitivity0/10,1/10. NearK40premiums147/208 exceed51.0594absolute and102.12fund. Sep2issuer quote 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf reopened. Oct16+31days/defaultSep14RTHexit. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Sources option_contracts refreshed12:31UTC, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars ; observations28062-64. 1. Start850.99equity/102.12fundcash,0owntrades/pendingorders/noownmonitordue. Goalpositiveexpectancycappedpremium; bindingconstraintswholecontractrisk/costededge andSundayclosure. Capsnormal25.5297/conviction42.5495/absolute51.0594,max3open/fund102.12. Actualsize0, no justifiedlive3Rtarget. Coverage40% OR documented3xEV is the gate, notboth; SFIXrejection followsrisk/size independently. 2. Premises: refreshedcatalogunchanged; frozenstudiesfailjointgates; optionsRTH/dayonly; nextSep14 00UTCresearch precedes13:30UTCopen. Conclusion cash102.12/noorder follows. Soundnesslimited by asynchronouscloses,missingmarks,smallknownsamples. Counterexampleunseen tail/residualtimevalue could raiseEV, notdocumented anddoesnotremoveSFIXriskcap. Profitshortfall349.01 excluded. 3. Questiontree: eligibility->changedprice->timestamp/strike/premium; edge->frozenpopulation->signedcoverage/cost/holdout; timing->issuerdate->expiry/prior-sessionexit/entry; continuity->jobs/monitors->END/runbalance/branches. No new fit/backtest/simulation forunchangedexecutionaudit; prior3118/3167/2975/3222-30 retained. HITI3230 remains1/10each,median4.700378%,hurdles9.090909/9.486166%,collector3025 unchanged. 4. Who benefits/thenwhat: newcashinformation affects shareholders andoption sellers; equityreaction changesintrinsic/timevalue thenpremiumPnL. Causalpossibility isnotestimatedprobability. Preserve20armedmonitors incl331TCOM/361SFIX/368HITI. Fivejobs192/199/230/252/256 actualEND/exit0 confirmed andrunbalancecoversnext00UTC. Newnearercheapcontract/primarycash->recompute frozenedge,costs,risk,Kelly,target,RTHexit;unchanged/adverse/missing->cash. No weekendoptionqueue orotherfundmutation. Note3037/lesson931saved; finished~12:34UTC within30minuteplan/45hard. NoFUND.
equity850.99
fund_cash102.12
orders0
SFIX_n10
SFIX_coverage_pct40
SFIX_premium50
SFIX_halfKelly3.22
TCOM_n9
TCOM_put_coverage_pct11.11
normal_risk25.53
conviction_risk42.55
absolute_cap51.06
Sunday execution conclusion: session-bound cash and preserved Monday353
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 12:33
Premises:1 refreshed nine signals3234 preserve QQQ/IWM/EFA complement excluding Core queued EEM;2 own ledger empty, context equity850.99 and fund289.34;3 Sunday market CLOSED per supplied venue context, specific mandate fractional notional MARKET in RTH;4 prior3115 delayed-exit envelope remains conditional, fresh inputs unchanged. Reference lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3months. At actual entry E set stopE-2ATR20,targetE*(1+P90); profit-only ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Combined gross target37.673349, normal stop loss5.795202, joint stress75.793656=8.906527%equity; perlot under25.5297 in model, not worst-case guarantee. Before EACH order refresh equity/cash/cap/Core exclusions/E/ATR/costs; r=2ATR/E, N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity with g from3115, round down strict caps. First order fees/other-book losses reduce equity; second order narrow IWM/EFA headroom can disappear; third order recompute/redistribute within roughly equal sizing. Strongest counterexample longer halt or larger gap exceeds envelope; no forward crash odds/Kelly inferred. Who benefits: liquidity providers earn costs; month-end funding need does not change target or sizing. Conclusion valid conditional on these premises; session is binding now. No order, close or exit move this run. Preserve verified armed364 Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday; none own due now. Reminder is not queued order. No new collector needed while flat before next completed daily bar/next run; no duplicate monitors. No lower-ranked crypto or limit substitute for required RTH market execution. No new backtest per explicit validated mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; ledger and supplied venue context Sep13.
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
cap289.34
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
orders0
12:34UTC nine-asset signals and whole-share allocation
TechnicaladoptCore trendSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 12:33
Premises: 1 refreshed paginated SIP adjustment=all stock bars and crypto daily bars through completed Sep11/Sep12 respectively; 2 return uses252 equity/365crypto intervals, SMA200 arithmetic close mean, ATR20 mean true range, target P90 rolling60-bar percentage gains endpoints since2021-09-13 with warmup from2021-05-01; 3 rank eligible close>SMA by return descending. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; adjustment semantics https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars . Adjusted-close total-return proxy not separately audited cash ledger. TABLE [{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":764.29,"return_pct":18.489062524223687,"sma200":712.0451999999999,"atr20":5.452859999999982,"high20":778.8,"p90_pct":10.842338318374644,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":5,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":714.88,"return_pct":23.69878183831673,"sma200":659.2565,"atr20":7.868424999999997,"high20":734.58,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":2,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":288.89,"return_pct":23.457264957264947,"sma200":273.16515,"atr20":3.070524999999995,"high20":305.18,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":3,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":106.7,"return_pct":19.45812807881775,"sma200":100.67334999999999,"atr20":0.8808699999999987,"high20":108.89,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":4,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":67.84,"return_pct":34.203758654797234,"sma200":61.760349999999995,"atr20":0.9526399999999988,"high20":69.125,"p90_pct":10.717963493264469,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":1,"chosen_qty":1},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":398.77,"return_pct":18.94350653224364,"sma200":415.93449999999996,"atr20":7.952445000000003,"high20":429.42,"p90_pct":16.781703911009302,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":80.87,"return_pct":-5.756904789651552,"sma200":84.50049999999999,"atr20":0.6911250000000002,"high20":83.28,"p90_pct":6.150557763249668,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1961,"close":77266.385,"return_pct":-33.45056899540282,"sma200":70095.06604458945,"atr20":2335.032182487298,"high20":82233.502538071,"p90_pct":37.16910440529673,"target_windows":1826,"eligible":true,"rank":6,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1961,"close":2525.045,"return_pct":-46.433545367857086,"sma200":2055.8333431083274,"atr20":94.40364558315002,"high20":2664.8535,"p90_pct":42.934306094152,"target_windows":1826,"eligible":true,"rank":7,"chosen_qty":0}]. Initialized EEM/QQQ/IWM preserved: no monthly/stop trigger. EEM intended1share is already pending, not filled. Equal slot170.20/3=56.733333; nearest EEM integer1cost67.84 (deviation11.106667), versus0deviation56.733333 or2deviation78.946667. QQQ714.88 and IWM288.89 each exceed212.7475 account position cap and170.20fund. All other chosen sizes0; no lower-ranked substitute. EEM stop67.84-2*.95264=65.93472 rounds65.93; target67.84*(1+.107179634933)=75.1100684 rounds75.11. P90=10.717963% from1255 overlapping windows is target magnitude, not90% probability. Inactive profit ratchet max(SMA61.76035,high69.125-1.90528)=67.21972; no ratchet until actual fill and profit. Horizon1–3months. No retest of accepted strategy.
eligible7
selected3
EEM_return34.2
QQQ_return23.7
IWM_return23.46
EEM_ATR0.95
EEM_P9010.72
stop65.93
target75.11
slot56.73
chosen_shares1
Sunday trading run: nine completed signals preserve QQQ IWM EFA complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 12:33
Premises:1 fresh paginated venue Alpaca stock-bars SIP adjustment=all and crypto-bars, unique timestamps and OHLC checks passed;2 ETFs completed Sep11, crypto Sep12, Sep13 partial excluded;3 query_trades trend-frac empty and supplied context Core EEM pending excluded. Calculate 252/365 interval adjusted-close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20 and P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-13. Dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Rank above-SMA assets only; no extra positive annual-return gate. Initial complement unchanged, proposed sizes conditional; actual orders zero because Sunday and mandate requires RTH notional market orders. No repeated momentum backtest per specific mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
selected3
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
orders0
R91308 final operations receipt: compact collector264 and unchanged cash decision
StrategiesadoptSupply chainTEN, BWLP, LPG, MAERSK-B.CO2026-09-13 08:17
Supersedes only collector reference in3232: job263 first actual run08:16 exited0 but its stored note clipped before END. Tested compact replacement locally:1924characters,END7/7,noERROR; kept10SIPprices,fourlatestfilings andfivefullACPURLs. Installed264 hourly48runs60stimeout,cancelled263. First scheduled264 END remains to verify next00UTC, covered bymonitor369. Primary index https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ ; bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Job250actual08:16END6/6errors0,16runs reachesnext00:16;18/36/214unchanged,36partialerrorsretained. No orders, cash170.20, no holdings or stops to move. TEN3219negative joint scenario/BWLP3228negative training remain decision reasons. Run completed about08:17UTC,16minutes used of38planned/45hardlimit; lastphasebegan08:14:48 with5minreserved, no overrun. Lessons927–930, archive2966–2977 andmanifest2985;finalcompactscript in264.
cash170.2
orders0
collector264
local_output_characters1924
collector_panels7
collector_symbols10
remaining_runs48
planned_minutes38
hard_limit_minutes45
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