Stats

RequiredCLI executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols GRAL --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 900 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 10. IEX560bars,44trades,return5.70810%,DD24.29516%,win31.81818%,avgtrade.290269%,buyhold467.31449%. Engineenterssignalclose, usesexactstoppricewithoutgaploss, nofees/slippage,noseparateholdout; pricehistoryincludeswhen-issuedperiod. Comparisonwithcustomtest132notcontrolledsingle-variableexperiment: rule,feed,cost,timingandexitsdiffer. CLIpositiveoutputcannotvalidatepanelrun-uporrule158. No strategyselectedfromit. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; engine /app/agent/dist/backtest/engine.js read; cli.jsonandexactengineassumptionsrecorded. Return/DDpercenton100%abstractcapital; notactualfundprofit. OutcomeREJECTforentryvalidation.

NumPyseed2026090504(afterfixed20000payoffbootstrap),10000pathsdrawcontiguous5sessionOHLC/previous-closeblocksfrom2026dailyhistory:166possibleblocks. Start80.34,freezeoneATR5.05324stopandtwoATR10.10649target;openinggapscheckedbeforeintradaylow/high,ambiguousboth-touchstopfirst. Five-sessionterminalp5/median/p95=-14.4015/+1.3419/+14.2585%; targetfirst24.73%,stopfirst42.04%,neither33.23%;95thpercentileclosepathDD17.0213%. Initialcodecheckedlowbeforefavorablestartgap; correctedopeningprecedenceandrerun,numericalfrequenciesunchangedforthisdraw. Theseareunconditionalresampledpathfrequencies, NOTFDAapprovalodds,signalconditionalprofitodds,nextweekforecastoractual15minfillprobabilities. Pathterminaldoesnotassumetradingbarrierexit;touchfrequenciesseparate. Historicalblocksincludevariousregimes/events,overlapandlimitedsample,unseenfuturegapsnotmodeled. On49.14hypotheticalfractionalnotional,5thpercentileterminalwouldlose~7.08 beforecosts, buttailisnotguaranteedlossbound; observedRAREstress22.54larger. ActualquarterKelly0fromnegativehistoricalpayoffs,whole-shareaffordability0andnoentrysignal. TargettwoATR iseven>twoADR, thusnotaapprovedvenueexit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/stats.json,technicalanalysis. Conclusion simulationcannotrescuefailededge; remainflat.

Fixedtest132holdout13naturalexits,p4/13=30.7692%,W7.54887%,L7.74074%,mean-3.03624%. NumPyseed2026090504,20000IIDresamples yieldsmean95%[-7.58618,+1.62648]%. Wideconditionalintervalpermitspositivepopulationmeanbutdoesnotestablishit; selectedname,regimeclustering andgenericpriceeventsmakerealuncertaintylarger. NoquarterKellyriskfromnegativeplug-inmean. Daily2026OLS170alignedGRAL/SPYreturns:beta2.34322,intercept.0226788%/day,correlation.309332; descriptiveexposure, notcausalalphaorpanelreactionforecast. Returnmayreflectstock-specificbinariesunrelatedtoSeptemberpanel. Catalystlive0wins/3closedtradesincludes2forcedliquidationsand1gapstop; nonrandomtinyrecorddoesnotestimatepanelwinchance orfillslippagewithouttimestampedquotes. Needcomparablepoint-in-timepanelannouncementsandFIRSTbriefingdates, frozenentry/exit/prospectiveholdout beforeanyeventprobability. StrongcounterexampleGRALcanrallydespitepoorpastprice-rulepayoffs; truebutnotnumericedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; fixednote158,tests.json/stats.json, directquery_tradesfundcatalyst. Nohypothesistuningoninspectedholdout.

September4SIPadjusteddailyclose80.34>SMA20 76.4785>SMA50 72.4748,20sessionreturn15.6304%,vol62.9566%annualized;prior20completedclosehigh82.54notexceeded, fixedsignalfalse. ATR14 simplemeantrue range5.05324 versusADR20 4.75848; currentdollarvolume34.941m, notbid/askliquiditymeasure. Combinedtrend/breakout/rangeindicatorssharepriceinput andarenotindependentconfirmations. IllustrativeoneATRstop75.2868/twoATRtarget90.4465 gives2Rbeforecosts, buttwoATRtarget10.1065exceedstwoADR9.5170, and20sessionlow66.3509asstructuralinvalidationwouldgiveonly.72R. No chosentargetisvalidatedforpanelrun-up; tighteningstoptoforceRR wouldnotestablishinvalidatingprice. One80.34shareexceeds49.14book;fractionalovernightprotectionunavailableunderstatedvenue. Evenfund49.14*RAREobserved45.8601%gapstress loses22.5356>8.5108equityriskbudget; stressceiling18.5582notionalwouldstillneedfractions. Cross-namehistoricalshocknotGRALforecast. Fixedtest132negativeholdoutandabsentsignalindependentlyblockentry. FlatbookhasnoholdingR,dayheld,targetprogressorexitadjustments. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_tradesfundcatalystRARE#2; recordedcontextfundcash49.14. Startcash,goalrepeatablenetgain,bindingconstraint numericaledgeandexecutionaccess,notdemandformonthlyprofits.

Required CLI executed: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy rsi --days978 --stop-pct4 --target-pct8 (actualflagsseparated). Built-in CLI exposes price strategies, no fundinghistoryinput; this is a price-reversion control, NOT replication of registeredfundingrule. Engine samebarcloseentry,no explicitcosts, currentdayincluded,no independentchronologicalholdout; exactpercentagebarriers lackgapfill/15minmanagement. No parameterchosenfromit. Custom vectorbt tests127-129 implementregistered externalfundingwithdaily/hourlybars,nextopen,costs andfixedsplit; theirnegativeverdictcontrols. CLI measuredsummary {"symbol": "BTC/USD", "bars": 979, "returnPct": 2.2415344708743623, "buyAndHoldPct": 80.03656269903307, "maxDrawdownPct": 26.456840736476657, "winRate": 52.77777777777778, "avgTradePct": 0.14347217951893762, "sample": 36} {"symbol": "ETH/USD", "bars": 979, "returnPct": -23.895629029964528, "buyAndHoldPct": 4.268071789682248, "maxDrawdownPct": 31.919598465806025, "winRate": 42, "avgTradePct": -0.4697585757388448, "sample": 50} {"symbol": "SOL/USD", "bars": 741, "returnPct": 13.882398172950804, "buyAndHoldPct": -35.233704292527825, "maxDrawdownPct": 25.914827218441012, "winRate": 48.93617021276596, "avgTradePct": 0.3897149986778772, "sample": 47} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest/engine.js . Do not interpret differences betweenRSIandfundingtestsas isolatingonebias.

Numbered premises: 1. Supply is flat with278.67deployablecash; two forcedliquidationwins do notestimate natural edge. 2. Primary Aug26proclamation andAug31CBPnotice establish limitedlean-trimaccess, while actualquota fills,companycontracts anddeliveredmargins remainunknown. USDA Sep4physicalimportreport coversAug23–29, notpostimplementation; legalaccess, reportedflow andrealizedprofit are separate observations. 3. TSN cattlepurchasesandbeeflosses, PPCmargincompressiondespitevolume, and JBSgeographic/accountingdifferences mean no listedcompany is established as an unqualifiedbeneficiary; analyses124/125 containpremises,counterexamplesand sources. 4. Fixednettests133/134 rejectTSN/PPC; JBS135 positive6.77% on13trades butzero training andCI[-.643,1.753]%, hence WATCH only. Allcurrentsignalsfalse; stats136,sim137,technical138,CLI139saved. 5. Actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-shareexits remainunvalidated. Conclusion: no PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; authorizedallocation0. Deductionvalidunderrequirednumericaledge; soundnessboundedbyselectedhistories,smallN,unobservedcontracts/tails anddailybar assumptions. Strongestcounterargument is that exportmargins may improve despite loweroffers, but thisneedsdeliveredvolumes/costsandindependentpayoffevidence. No claimpricesmustfall orpolicyisgood/bad. Sources https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ ; https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100493/000010049325000095/tsn-20250927.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Monitors26USDASeptember17/27quotaSeptember29are researchreviews, existing11retained. Job18daily30runs localpassed;pypdf6.17.0pinned; sandboxfirstoutputpending04:11. Existingjob16sandboxverifiednote151. Full4584rawbars/code/results archived146observations, exactreadbackmatchverified04:11, SHA221a98926f09130fb3317e26ba56d88210f071d27382bb795f324aa663ee7549. Lessons64–66saved. No otherfundactions. ~11minusedof43planned; final5minphasebegan04:10, nooverrun.

1. October2025PATHFINDER2initialmatrix TP133,FP83,FN196,TN22749,N23161 givesprevalence1.4205%,PPV61.5741%,episode sensitivity40.4255%,specificity99.6365%. WilsonPPV95%54.9386–67.8050. May2026full173/287=60.2787%,Wilson54.5176–65.7683. Cohortsoverlap; doNOTtreatasindependentdifference-test. 25578initialenrolledvs23161analyzable9.4495%differenceiseligibility/followupgap, notautomaticallyloss-tofollowup. Source https://investors.grail.com/static-files/599b1d07-9463-4a3e-b49f-fa074ab63083 ; https://grail.com/press-releases/grail-presents-pathfinder-2-results-of-more-than-35000-participants-showing-the-galleri-test-substantially-increased-cancer-detection-with-robust-performance-and-favorable-safety-at-2026-a/ .2. Holdinginitialsensitivity/specificityconstant, hypotheticalprevalence.5/1/2% givesPPV35.85/52.90/69.41%. Bayesillustration, notfutureclinicalforecast: patientmix,testversionandfollowupmaychangebothinputs. Specificity99.6%isnotprobabilityapositivepersoniscancerfree. 3. NHS197146pooledroundobservationsTP937/FP864/FN2114/TN193231, NOTuniquepeople; repeatedpeoplemeannaiveindependentbinomialCIwouldunderstateuncertainty. SponsorPPV52%andepisode sensitivity30.7%addressdifferentconditionals. First-roundFP303with54laterdiagnoses(44correctCSO)doesnotretroactivelychange12monthresult. 4. All-screenedPF2invasive213/35335=.6028% differsfromslide17conditional91%cancer/50%no-cancer. Denominatorsnotfullyreconciled, nofalseprecisecount. NHSAEsrecordedcollectiontoreferral, PF2postlockseriousworkupeventshowsascertainmentwindowmatters. Source https://investors.grail.com/static-files/995005e4-2c8e-4a02-bef0-400403856cc7 .5. Primaryp.6234slidesversus.6324releaseunresolvedbutbothnon-significant,IRR1.03same. Currentregistryfixedsequenceconfirmedbutpost-resultversionnotoriginalSAP. Conclusionuncertainutilityandconditionalburdencannotbecompressedintoasingleapprovalscore. Validityisconditionalarithmetic; soundnessboundedbycohortselection,roundeddisclosuresandversiondifferences. Factsarecounts; hypotheticalprevalencesexplicitassumptions.

Start235.86cash,goalrepeatable netprofit,bindingconstraint independently validated executable edge. Premise1 negativefunding transfers short-to-long perpetualpayments,notspotyield. First order: a perpdiscount can reward longperp/shortspot arbitrage and penalize persistentperpshorts; liquidityproviders benefitfromspread/turnover. Second: shortspot hedges can offset outrightspotbuying while margin/collateralconstraints limit arbitrage, so rateconvergence neednot liftspot. Third: in sustainedselloffs negativefunding may persist with forcedlongliquidation or hedgedeleveraging rather than short squeeze. These chains are plausible hypotheses, not measuredparticipantflows; no borrow/collateral or liquidations panel establishes causality. Alternativechain: unhedgedshortscover -> perp/spotbasisnarrows -> spotarbitrage purchases amplifyrally, but test127-129 givesnegative netreturns and rejects treating that alternativeasbasecase. Premise2 singlevenue sign is incomplete: lastSOLdaily Binance+.2422bp vsBybit-.9447/OKX-.2478; sameperiod/differentvenue makesallpartlyright. Premise3 quantityOI increasesETH.487%/SOL.307% overabout114minutes do notrevealshortdirection. Conclusion retaincash,do notinvertfailedlongtest intoashorttrade/newfundwithoutseparateevidence. Strongestcounterargument BTCtraining+13.84% anduptrendconditionalpositivegrosswindows meritfuturestudy; theydo notrepairnegativeholdoutorjustifyretuning. Fundingdeadline cannotchange payoffgeometry. Sources https://www.okx.com/en-sg/help/how-to-calculate-future-funding-fee ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Facts endatsettlements,OIandtests; causalchains remain assumptions.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Freeze signal ADR20:stop1ADR,target2ADR,conservative stopfirst/adversegap fills; includeentryday. Close>=+1R schedules1/3trimnextopen andbreakevenstop; maximum5sessions. 2023-Jan3 through2026-Sep4 chronological diagnostic holdout,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee25bp+slippage25bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-80.2992%,DD80.3135%,N549,p32.9690%,W1.3415%,L1.9662%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Freeze signal ADR20:stop1ADR,target2ADR,conservative stopfirst/adversegap fills; includeentryday. Close>=+1R schedules1/3trimnextopen andbreakevenstop; maximum5sessions. 2023-Jan3 through2026-Sep4 chronological diagnostic holdout,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee5bp+slippage5bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-14.8384%,DD16.9591%,N549,p45.1730%,W1.6719%,L1.5224%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Hold5sessions thenexitopen; no mandatory stops/targets so notvenueeligible. 2023-Jan3 through2026-Sep4 chronological diagnostic holdout,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee25bp+slippage25bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-72.2625%,DD73.0675%,N549,p38.7978%,W1.6277%,L2.1422%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Hold5sessions thenexitopen; no mandatory stops/targets so notvenueeligible. 2023-Jan3 through2026-Sep4 chronological diagnostic holdout,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee5bp+slippage5bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns19.8968%,DD18.4248%,N549,p54.4627%,W1.8538%,L1.9576%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Freeze signal ADR20:stop1ADR,target2ADR,conservative stopfirst/adversegap fills; includeentryday. Close>=+1R schedules1/3trimnextopen andbreakevenstop; maximum5sessions. 2017-2022 training,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee25bp+slippage25bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-92.3758%,DD92.5984%,N896,p32.4777%,W1.6771%,L2.0536%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Freeze signal ADR20:stop1ADR,target2ADR,conservative stopfirst/adversegap fills; includeentryday. Close>=+1R schedules1/3trimnextopen andbreakevenstop; maximum5sessions. 2017-2022 training,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee5bp+slippage5bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-16.8486%,DD31.2305%,N896,p44.7545%,W1.9125%,L1.6316%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Hold5sessions thenexitopen; no mandatory stops/targets so notvenueeligible. 2017-2022 training,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee25bp+slippage25bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-92.7967%,DD92.7967%,N896,p36.7188%,W2.0795%,L2.5193%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

Frozen note161. Nine original sector ETFs, completed5session returns less equal-sector mean; every5sessions buy bottom3 negative residuals in equalcash sleeves at followingopen, unusedslotscash. Hold5sessions thenexitopen; no mandatory stops/targets so notvenueeligible. 2017-2022 training,2016warmup; datesoverlapotherresearch, notgloballyuntouchedsample. Fee5bp+slippage5bp eachside are assumed, notlivecostmeasurement. vectorbt explicitlongonlyorders,cashsharing; independentcash/quantitydailyledger agrees<1e-6. Synthetic4event/dayordering isNOTobserved intradaydata; reportedDDdailyclose. Finalincompleterotation excluded, zeroopenpositions/terminalmarks inpayoffs. Returns-21.4363%,DD52.7304%,N896,p50.7813%,W2.2027%,L2.3420%. Populationiscurrentninewrappersnotpoint-in-timeallETF universe; originalNagel48industrylongshortdailyweights differ. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf . Conclusion specificimplementation, notallreversaltheory; noadoption/tuningfromholdout. Actual15minute/dividend/whole-shareexecution unvalidated.

CompletedSep4 spot closes BTC79676.7475,ETH2456.376,SOL101.95 exceed50daymeans68776.3257,2077.1341,83.2150;20day returns+26.425/+30.567/+35.419%. These correlated price indicators are not independent confirmations. Registered previousday Binance fundingdaily sums+1.9511,+1.6131,+.2422bp,so none qualifies negative-and-below-prior30day10thpercentile; thresholds+1.24586,+.69702,-1.07644bp. All currententriesfalse. Illustrative1ADRstop/2ADRtarget prices BTC76754.90/85520.44,ETH2337.63/2693.88,SOL95.42/115.01 derive from ranges but are not live orders, currentquotes or evidence of expectedprofit. FundingforecastSOL-.4808bp at04:04 is a different field/period/venue from completed Binance daily+.2422bp; no contradiction after definitions align. Binance/Bybit/OKX lastSOLdaily sums+.2422/-.9447/-.2478bp;93commoncomplete days have Binance/Bybit signagreement79.57%,Binance/OKX83.87%. Negativeonevenue is not a global consensus. Premises absententry and failednetbacktests independently prohibit purchase. No openholdings or queuedorders,so no R-progress or stopadjustment needed. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history . Currentdaily snapshot not executablebidask.

NumPyseed90504,10000paths perasset: draw3 complete24h logreturnblocks from diagnostic holdout, concatenate72h; BTC/SOL325 blocks,ETH324. ReferenceSep4close,1ADRstop/2ADRtarget widths BTC3.667/7.334%,ETH4.834/9.669%,SOL6.405/12.810%. Hourlyclose target-before-stop frequencies5.57/7.02/3.73%,stopfirst30.27/31.76/24.10%; these are unconditional historical resampling frequencies, not forecast probabilities or intrabar/15minute fill odds. 72h terminal5/95percentiles BTC-6.423/+6.226%,ETH-9.029/+9.244%,SOL-9.596/+9.651%. Separate10-trade scenario draws observed net naturalpayoffs,invests10% of changing fundcapital: medianterminal-.241/-.881/-2.581%,lossfrequency57.70/71.76/93.33%. This is10trades,not monthlydeadline simulation; IIDpaths miss clustering/unknown tails. QuarterKelly is negative for all3 using observed win/payoff distributions, so authorizedsize0 beforecaps. Stop-only ceilings min(235.86,212.77,8.5108/stopwidth) BTC212.77,ETH176.05,SOL132.87; actual fills/fees/gaps can exceed nominal1%loss, these are illustrations not approvals. Premises negative netpayoff and modest72h targetfrequency jointly reject deployment; no target extension to meetfundinggap. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; observations1762-1764 and code risk.py.

Executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TSN,PPC,JBS --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 6. TSN502bars return-1.468%,DD8.739%,win36.364%,N22;PPC502 return-13.312%,DD22.030%,win24.138%,N29;JBS309 return5.029%,DD12.038%,win40%,N25. Sameclose/noexplicitcosts, differentrule andnoindependentholdout, so notexecutablevalidation. Registeredtests133–135 useexplicitfees/slippage andnextopen; no parameterchosenfromCLI. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; cli.json archived.

CompletedSep4SIPadjustedbars. TSN51.42 belowprior20close58.07/SMA5057.1102;PPC30.48 aboveSMA5029.0449 butbelowprior20high32.43;JBS13.03 slightlyaboveSMA5012.9982 butbelow14.23priorhigh. Twenty-sessionreturns-10.574/+11.038/-8.433%. Combinedpriceindicators are one source, not independentconfirmations. ADR20 givesraw hypothetical1ADRstop/2ADRtargetdistance,but withoutsignal orvalidatedpayoffs there is no justifiedentry/stop/target. Account1%nominalrisk8.5108 islossbudgetnotfillguarantee; whole-sharemaximum25%equity212.77 beforefundcap278.67. Actual15minute/+1R/dividendcash exits untested. Noneopen/pending, noRprogressorhorizon toadjust. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations1732–34. Do not infer reversalfromTSNweakness orbuyPPCsolelybecause20dayreturnpositive.

NumPy10000circular3tradeblockpaths, each19TSN/20PPC/13JBStrades, allocate10%changingcapital pertrade. Terminal5/50/95 percent TSN[-2.530,-1.243,.220],PPC[-2.709,-.771,1.100],JBS[-.642,.716,2.056]; trade-step95%DD2.627/3.038/1.144%. These conditional historical resamples are not monthend or policy forecasts, actualbarrier-touch odds, or whole-shareexecution. Fullfund278.67 initial10%27.867 cannotbuywholeTSN/PPC, so illustrativenotexecutionplan. Plug-inquarterKellyTSN/PPC0,JBS1.665capitalfraction beforeconstraints demonstratesestimateinstability, notpermission; JBSmeanCIcrosseszero andtrainingabsent. Allauthorizednotional0. Unobservedgaps,15minutechecks, liquidityandcorporateactions remainunmodeled. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; test.py andobservations1724/1727/1730. Avoid translatingbootstrap frequencies into probabilitiesofpoliticalorpolicyoutcomes.

Premises: net naturalpayoffs from registeredtest have smallsamples and selectedcurrentnames; the two liveSupplywins were operatorliquidations and contain nolossestimate/referencequotes. NumPyseed90504 circular3tradeblocks,10000 draws; TSN95%meanCI[-1.4654,.2683]%,PPC[-1.5547,.7230]%,JBS[-.6432,1.7526]%. Allincludezero; no positive lowerbound forrisk. Blockresampling retainslocaldependence but cannotremove selection/regimes or unknowntails. Descriptive2025+stockdailyOLSvsSPY uses420TSN/PPCdays and308JBSdays: betas.16053/-.04664/.28185; annualarithmeticintercepts-2.817/-7.212/-.659%, not causalalpha or policyeffect. Priorcautious; replicatedprospectivefixedrule with actualvenueexits and positive netconfidence wouldchange it, repeatingheadlinewon't. Validdeductionzeroauthorizedrisk under fundcriteria; soundnessconditional onhistoricaldata. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations1723–1737, savedrawdata/code.

Registered note159 before pricefetch: prior20 completed-close breakout AND SMA50; nextopen entry, signalADR20 stop1/target2, 5sessions exitnextopen, no pyramiding; entryday barriers included, stopfirst both-touch, adversegapactualopen/favorabletargetgapcapped. Training2022–2024, chronological diagnostic holdout2025–Sep4 2026;2021warmup. Fees5bp andslippage10bp eachside separately in finalvectorbt replay; stress10/20bp. Currentselected names make this exploratory, not prospective or causal policy study. All-adjusted SIP bars paginated, datesunique; synthetic9h/16h rows encode ordering, not observed intradaybars. Independentcashledger reconciles below2e-12; terminalopenfalse; naturalexitpayoffs only. Trainingtarget1.5/2 stop1/1.25 sweep saved, fixed1/2 unchanged. 309bars startJune13 2025; no training, so laterperiod not independently trained OOS. Positive estimate does not justify adoption. No actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-share replay, so daily barrier model is ineligible. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/results.json/trades.json and archive. QuarterKelly authorized0, no current signal.

Registered note159 before pricefetch: prior20 completed-close breakout AND SMA50; nextopen entry, signalADR20 stop1/target2, 5sessions exitnextopen, no pyramiding; entryday barriers included, stopfirst both-touch, adversegapactualopen/favorabletargetgapcapped. Training2022–2024, chronological diagnostic holdout2025–Sep4 2026;2021warmup. Fees5bp andslippage10bp eachside separately in finalvectorbt replay; stress10/20bp. Currentselected names make this exploratory, not prospective or causal policy study. All-adjusted SIP bars paginated, datesunique; synthetic9h/16h rows encode ordering, not observed intradaybars. Independentcashledger reconciles below2e-12; terminalopenfalse; naturalexitpayoffs only. Trainingtarget1.5/2 stop1/1.25 sweep saved, fixed1/2 unchanged. Training/holdout result does not establish positive stable expectancy; reject implementation, not all supply signals. No actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-share replay, so daily barrier model is ineligible. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/results.json/trades.json and archive. QuarterKelly authorized0, no current signal.

Registered note159 before pricefetch: prior20 completed-close breakout AND SMA50; nextopen entry, signalADR20 stop1/target2, 5sessions exitnextopen, no pyramiding; entryday barriers included, stopfirst both-touch, adversegapactualopen/favorabletargetgapcapped. Training2022–2024, chronological diagnostic holdout2025–Sep4 2026;2021warmup. Fees5bp andslippage10bp eachside separately in finalvectorbt replay; stress10/20bp. Currentselected names make this exploratory, not prospective or causal policy study. All-adjusted SIP bars paginated, datesunique; synthetic9h/16h rows encode ordering, not observed intradaybars. Independentcashledger reconciles below2e-12; terminalopenfalse; naturalexitpayoffs only. Trainingtarget1.5/2 stop1/1.25 sweep saved, fixed1/2 unchanged. Training/holdout result does not establish positive stable expectancy; reject implementation, not all supply signals. No actual15minute/+1R/rawdividend/whole-share replay, so daily barrier model is ineligible. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; artifacts/test.py/results.json/trades.json and archive. QuarterKelly authorized0, no current signal.