Stats

Preregistered note353 before prices inspected. Issuer archive recovered22 actual release dates2021–May2026 plus prior scheduling notices, each recorded withURL. Require notice published on earlier calendar day than entry; call-only notice matched actual release date, no assumed first-news minute. EnterT-10open,exitT-1close onSPYsessioncalendar,nevereventday. Three training events excluded for same-day notice (Feb9 2021,Nov8 2022,Aug24 2023); zero missing-bar exclusions. Training2021–2024N13 +39.38577%,DD14.29358%,win61.53846%; holdout2025–May2026N6 -54.89695%,DD56.61701%,win16.66667%,mean-10.97667%,W19.97380/L17.16676%. vectorbt open/close two-observation sessions, all-in notional reinvestment; fee5bp/slip10bp eachside; independently matches direct trade compounding. DD measured at opens/closes,not true intradayworst. Higher25bpslip holdout-55.70154%. $0.005/$0.01slip per side separately -56.12889/-57.83791%. Fixed5session diagnostic holdout-20.19879%N6;15session has0training/1holdout +23.41144%,unusable calendar selection. No strategy selection from inspected sweep. One2022preannouncement tagged,not fresh economicnews. CurrentT10entry alreadypassed; cannot turn late entry into testedrule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all ; https://ir.hain.com/financial-information/quarterly-results . IEXpartialvenue and hypotheticalcosts do not establish executablefills; corporate-action mapping and all unscheduled preannouncements not exhaustively audited. Reject longrule,not shortrecommendation.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2021-01-05,last exit2026-08-27; 652 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.147999%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.196250,-0.103566]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-31; 1420 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.166131%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.197787,-0.135059]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2016-01-06,last exit2020-12-31; 566 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.173098%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.266500,-0.100093]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2016-01-04,last exit2020-12-31; 1258 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.157212%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.206346,-0.112683]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-27; 711 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.139892%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.196869,-0.082145]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-31; 1420 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.145874%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.189569,-0.102042]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2016-01-05,last exit2020-12-31; 602 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.180225%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.269987,-0.105063]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2016-01-04,last exit2020-12-31; 1258 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.133879%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.186687,-0.082900]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-31; 631 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.240984%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.309603,-0.175063]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-31; 1420 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.197311%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.238236,-0.157933]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2016-01-08,last exit2020-12-31; 559 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.216290%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.318499,-0.127472]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2016-01-04,last exit2020-12-31; 1258 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.178825%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.231093,-0.127730]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-28; 653 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.239197%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.311146,-0.167636]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-31; 1420 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.195460%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.247297,-0.145154]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Premises:1 buy at ask, not midpoint;2 own value must cover costs;3 indicative quote gaps cannot certify execution. Venue chain two pages1060contracts,1059quote timestamps within120s ofSep4 20UTC;145positivebid with0<bid<=ask<=.08. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/XLF?feed=indicative&expiration_date_gte=2026-09-08&expiration_date_lte=2026-10-16 collectedSep6. Every affordable contract quote,size,IV/Greeks and three prices recorded individually. Independent BSM C=Sexp(-qT)N(d1)-Kexp(-rT)N(d2); P=Kexp(-rT)N(-d2)-Sexp(-qT)N(-d1);d1=[log(S/K)+(r-q+sigma²/2)T]/(sigma sqrt(T)),d2=d1-sigma sqrt(T). S58.10 from adjustedIEXSep4close; r=.04 assumption; q=.0138 trailing issuerdistribution approximation. T business sessions afterSep4 through expiry/252 excludingSep7; not a demonstrated closurevariance law. Volatility blend=.123024895,HAR=.159929506,adverse=.8min=.098419916. Net fair-ask-.002/share assumes$.20fee/contract; actual fees unverified, bidexit modeled separately. Zero baseline net positives,3HAR positives,0adverse. HAR flags: Sep18K60.5call fair.080069 ask.07 (+.008069 net),Sep30K62call .069420 ask.06(+.007420),Sep8K57.5put .044865 ask.04(+.002865). HAR calibration failed improvement test, so do not switch to it because its valuations are larger. Sep18K60.5call bid.04ask.07,size371/508,quote19:59:59.404611235Z,feedIV.1509,delta.0776,gamma.0914,theta-.0101,vega.0153; midpoint-calibratedsessionIV.145572289. Samecontract blend fair.025136 and adverse.006631. Cashdividend schedule/OCCdeliverable/Americanexercise not fullyverified; BSM is European approximation, not claimed fair-value bound. Full premium7+fee.20=7.20 fits8.5099 risk but fails economic edge. Existing executablefeed/history gates staybinding. Source provenance https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data ; dividend input https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-financial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlf .

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2016-01-05,last exit2020-12-30; 578 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.159961%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.246600,-0.074461]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Premises:1 a regime must be defined using information available on its date;2 subgroup performance needs its denominator;3 exploratory subgroup differences cannot repair a failed pooled test. Highvol=baseline variance above its training median; uptrend=close>SMA50 on forecast date. Threshold frozen from training. XLF highvol HAR-minus-blend QLIKE -.04916,N12 versus lowvol +.06847,N21; uptrend +.04651,N24 versus downtrend -.02981,N9. XLE highvol +.02019,N28 and lowvol -.22138,N5 explain its small aggregate improvement: the favorable lowvol evidence has only5 windows. GLD has33 highvol/zero lowvol; TLT zero highvol/33lowvol, so no within-asset complete regime comparison. These are descriptive, no subgroup-fit or new rule adopted. Current XLF S58.10,SMA10 57.994,SMA50 56.8555,ATR14 .658571,baseline12.30249% annual vol vsHAR15.99295%; stocktrend positive while affordability confines choices to tails. PricesatSept4close, not live. More forecast volatility raises call valuations without demonstrating that the forecast is better. Counterexample: a future downtrend might favor HAR; prospective holdout needed, not posthoc switching. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF,XLE,GLD,EEM,IWM,TLT&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex . All six exact regime counts/means recorded in observations5797-5802.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2016-01-04,last exit2020-12-31; 1258 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.152876%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.210277,-0.096504]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2021-01-05,last exit2026-08-27; 658 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.136809%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.197342,-0.078657]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Later chronological window2021-Aug2026; same market period previously inspected in other strategies. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2021-01-04,last exit2026-08-31; 1420 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.156518%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.197996,-0.115258]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Yesterday open-to-close return negative: buy TODAY close, sell following open. Signal known before entry; delayed price proxy, not signed order imbalance. First entry2016-01-06,last exit2020-12-31; 560 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.142774%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.228171,-0.067808]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Frozen protocol note358. Training2016-2020. Predetermined buy each session close, sell following open. First entry2016-01-04,last exit2020-12-31; 1258 completed nights. Fee5bp/slippage5bp each side. Explicit long-only vectorbt staged buy/sell ledger reconciles independent net compounding within1e-8, nonnegative cash; drawdown includes starting cash and fee marks but omits unobserved intranight excursions. Mean payoff-0.140482%; 5-trade-block95%meanCI[-0.185974,-0.096823]%. Costs0/2/50bp andrawprice variants preserved in archive, not tuned. Daily adjustedprices approximate distributions and endpoints; market/limitvenue cannot guarantee auctions, no15minute exit or partialprofit simulation in this backtest. This is a diagnostic adaptation, NOT exact02-03ETfutures replication and NOT a deployable stop/target rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py + diagnostics.py.

Premises: 1. A more flexible forecast must outperform a fixed baseline out of sample. 2. Overlapping outcomes cannot count as independent evidence. 3. Physical variance forecasts alone are not risk-neutral option values. Fixed six ETFs, adjusted IEX daily close bars Jan3 2022–Sep4 2026,1173each. Let r=log(Ct/Ct-1),v=r². Baseline f=(mean21(v)+mean63(v)+EWMA.94(v))/3. Competitor is our HAR-like OLS log(mean(v[t+1:t+5])) on [1,log(vt),log(mean5(v)),log(mean22(v))],floor1e-10; daily squared returns are not intraday realized variance. Fit976 rows beforeDec24 2025; target ends before2026, explicit purge. Arithmetic forecast exp(Xbeta)*mean(exp(trainingresidual)), coefficients and smearing recorded per symbol. Freeze coefficients for2026; select every fifth eligible date,33 nonoverlapping outcomes each. Loss QLIKE=y/f-log(y/f)-1; compare paired differences HAR minus blend. 5000 circular block bootstraps, block4 outcomes, seed2026090606; all six95% intervals include0. Deltas GLD+.185717,IWM+.005959,TLT+.004236,XLE-.016413,XLF+.025697,EEM+.031996. Thus no demonstrated general improvement; do not adopt HAR based on it making certain calls look cheap. Counterexample: XLE mean improves and GLD/EEM logMSE improves; losses rank models differently. These findings prevent claiming universal dominance of the blend. Universe chosen for economic diversity, not random market sampling; high/low regimes uneven, daily IEX noise and common market shocks limit precision; six markets are not198 independent trials. Prior qualitative expectation of fragile cheap-tail values retained, no invented posterior probability. Evidence that changes stance: prospective frozen forecast gains with uncertainty excluding0 on eligible contracts plus actual option bid/ask holdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF,XLE,GLD,EEM,IWM,TLT&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex .

Read query_trades fund=catalyst Sep6. Three closed trades, wins0; returns MIRM-.439321%,IONS-2.842420%,RARE-45.860062%; arithmetic average loss16.380601%, dollarPnL-31.937258 before unallocated system costs. Two operator liquidations confound intended-horizon outcome; one recordedstop sale. RARE exit13.98976 versusstop24 is41.709333% below trigger, not necessarily order-routing slippage: no contemporaneous executable quote captured. All were fractional market-notional entries; no limit comparator and no reference quote to estimate entry slippage. Winnerpayoff unobserved, quarterKelly sizing0 by mandate. Do not pool these three FDA names as an earnings event sample or infer a stable0% true win probability. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst&status=closed ; venue/context providesaccount850.99,fund49.14,1%risk8.5099. This is execution/outcome evidence, not a causal rule backtest.