Stats

1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N7, mean0.628881%, worst-1.416834%, median2.0313 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .

1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N72, mean-0.096238%, worst-4.188273%, median1.1563 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .

1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N59, mean-0.215674%, worst-2.023682%, median1.7813 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .

1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N13, mean0.150231%, worst-1.506870%, median1.1771 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .

1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N64, mean0.029030%, worst-1.868121%, median1.0260 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .

1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N62, mean-0.257764%, worst-2.403976%, median1.0104 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .

Start$49.14fundcash/$850.99account,zeroopen/queued;goalrepeatablenetpre-eventgains. Bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge,not$349.01monthlyshortfall. NUMBEREDPREMISES:1 Aug26issuer https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx confirmsSep23morning;fixedpaperwindowSep16open/Sep21close,notentrytoday.2 Frozen23eventtest613 holdsout10,net+.567%but25bpslip-2.405%;meanCI[-1.408,+.925]% failsconfidence.3 IndicatorgroupsN4–6andR2-2.733cannotrepairvalidation;15minexitproxy+2.845%/stress-.194% isnotrobust.4 Simulation100000paths from857trainingdays mean-.225% andunestimatedgaprisk; numericpointKellynotional48.29% isnotsizingpermission.5 OnewholeGIS38.28fitsfundcap,butstopatsupport/attainabletargetRR.957fails1.5;freshquotesnotavailable. CONCLUSIONnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND;adoptedsize0. VALIDITY: mandatoryconfidence/costconditionsfail,soabstentionfollows. SOUNDNESS: singlechosenissuer,smalldependentholdout,3yearclusters,missingprints,partialvenueIEX,earliestnews/preannouncementcensusincomplete,15minquotes/extendedhoursmissing;notuniversalproofrunupslose. Attack1earlynews/datechangepossible->reverify;2 truepositivesmalledgecouldexist->prospectivevalidationneeded;3higherresolutionquotesmightimproveexecution->donotassume;4regimecouldchange->newdata notresampling;5 supportneednotbeonlyinvalidationbutdonotchooseafterseeingreturns. Who benefitsfromunsupportedturnover:spreadrecipients;cashavoidsnewcosts,preservescapital,allowsprospectivelearning. Firmoperatingimprovementcouldchangethesisbutdoesnotidentifywinprobability. ExistingGISearningsreviewjob30;monitorcap20/newjobcap5rejected additions. Replaceknowntruncatedjob9withtested1591charcombinedprimarycollector48;queued96x240min,firstsavedoutputpending. Next08UTCverify48actualtimestamp+END beforeclaimingdelivery. Marketwidepriorcensus informedGISselection;thisrunisoneboundedquantdeepdive,notnewexhaustivemarketscreen. Noholdingsneedexits. Allfiguresobservationsandanalyses586/613/614/617/619–624;code/resultsarchive15verifiedpartsnotes612–626.

1. Decision: retain all $278.67 supply cash. No PROPOSE, EXIT, ADJUST or FUND. There are no holdings or queued orders to manage. Equity850.99 implies212.7475 positioncap and8.5099 nominalriskcap, but both stocks fail entry and net-edge requirements. The two historical fund wins were operator liquidations, not a usable win/loss or execution distribution. 2. Fundamental588 and consequences587 find a real operating mechanism: regional aluminum premiums can benefit Century's US output, while LME-linked inputs, supplier concentration and recovering Gulf/domestic capacity limit rents. EGA315/1262cells restored onAug26 is operator evidence of a slow physical recovery, not proof of future stockreturn; CENXQ2actual margin improvement is already public. Sources https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm . 3. Frozen generic technical holdouts600/601 are positive16.16%/4.59% over22/26 trades, but block mean intervals includezero. Indicator612 rejects picking L40 after seeing the holdout. Actual-exit sensitivity615/616 loses3.94%/21.60%, stress8.08%/25.58%. Statistical610 shows shared metal exposure without significant daily intercepts. Simulation618 gives model-conditioned target frequency26.72%/19.18%, not calibrated future probabilities. Correct Kelly units separately; relevant ADR net means are negative and long-only approvedsize iszero. Technical611 confirms both below prior20closinghighs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. Five active collectors retained. Passed local extension of43 then replaced it with44 daily27initialruns. Remote06:15 output verified11lines,6barrows,4JSON,3HTTP200;26remain,nextSep8 06:15. EGAindex https://media.ega.ae/en/ monitors changed restoration titles alongside unchanged UAMY/LRV source coverage. Existing12/18/36/39 persist. Carrier39 new06UTC success has unchangedhashes; USDA18 refreshed04:30but Aug23–29period predatesquota; helium36 still3sourcefailures. No additional datedcatalyst verified, no inventedmonitor needed. Existing supply monitors unchanged, none due before next08UTC research. 5. Next run: inspect genuinely new deliveredtonnes, power costs, premium realization and completed restarts; if rents improve, recordprospectively and require a new independentlyvalidated trade rule, not a rerun/retune of this holdout. If recovery accelerates or inputs rise, weaken scarcitywatch. Full China/global inventory balance, hedge-cohort netbacks, restrictedcash reconciliation, historical first-news labels and15-minute executable exit model remain gaps. No assertion those missing facts are false. Primary collection ceased changing the answer; no thread overran its allowance. Research used about17minutes of42allowed, finishreserve intact. All eight analysis kinds, measured outputs, individual holdout trades and three lessons recorded.

Executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols GIS --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days1825 (actual flags '--lookback 20'). 1252IEXdailybars,60closedtrades,return-1.755185%,DD27.710039%,win35%,avgtrade-.085484%;buyhold-35.533850%. Engineinspected:signals usecurrentcloseandfillthatclose, nofees/slippage, nochronologicalholdout. Thereforediagnosticonly andnotvalidateddeployablestrategy. Requested CLIcheckcompleted; relevantcostedOOSisGIS eventtest613 withvectorbt,notthisgenericmomentumresult. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars , cli bars.js feediex/unadjustedspecdefault;outputresearch/cli.json. Do not rank-choose genericrulebecauseitoutperformeddecliningbuyhold;nomandatedeventfilterandnegativegrossreturn.

Premises: July1financialbaseline https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-Reports-Fiscal-2026-Fourth-quarter-Adjusted-Results-in-Line-with-Company-Expectations/default.aspx ;Aug19conference https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Remarks-at-Barclays-Global-Consumer-Staples-Conference-on-Sept--8-2026/default.aspx ;Aug26earningsnotice https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx . FIRST: Sep8publiccommentarycouldchangeSep23expectations; strongerreportedgrowthmayalsoreflectcalendar/divestiture/timing ratherthanenddemand. SECOND: sustainedorganicvolumeandproductivitycouldtranslateintosupplierorders andcash;ifpricecompetitionconsumessavings,retailcustomersbenefitwithoutshareholdermarginexpansion. THIRD: betterFCFcouldsupportcashreturnsandfinancingflexibility; weakerFCFcouldforcecashreturntradeoffs. Theseareconditionalchains,notmeasuredpricecausalityornewcompanyproposals. Beneficiariesofcrediblegrowth:consumers,retailers,issuer/holders;who capturesnetmarginrequiresactualnumbers. Strongbullcasecheapestaplesvaluationandinnovationrecoveryremainspossible; strongestcountercasecostsavingstargetisgrossandpreliminaryconferenceguidancecanremoveinformationnovelty. No numericcausalapprovalorstockwinprobabilityassigned. Analysttargetsdiscardedasnotdefiningourfour-sessionpayoff. Flatbookmeansnothrough-eventholdingreason; nofundcreationedgefound.

Startstatefundcash235.86/equity850.99, noopen/pending confirmed06:15; goalrepeatablenetgrowth, bindingconstraint independentvalidatednetedge and execution-data provenance. Appliedlessons208-210; new223-225 changeprocess: no furtherparametersearch onrecycledholdout, firstresolvebarprovenance/prospectiveevidence. Numberedpremises:1 census36pairs and top10volume updated, quotes7/10fresh, alternativebreakouts unvalidated (609).2 historicalaggregationaudit552 finds217/211/205 mismatcheddays, someopens6-10%apart; no pristinefutureholdout.3 rawtrainselecteddaily-8.767/-4.699/-22.645%,hourly-53.277/-56.877/-48.842%; rawquarterKelly0.4 calendar/deriveddaily sensitivity0/+15.756/+11.796 onN0/2/1 cannotestablish reliablewin/loss;hourly-52.185/-58.574/-49.238 remainsnegative. NumericalETHdailyKelly.1063 fromN2 isnotdecision-grade; approvedKelly0.5 simulations605/606 conditional10kpaths, driftremoveddoublestressmean~-1.2%; hourlyovershootrisk andactual15minfilluncertainty preventdefensiblestop-targetorder.6 Liquid550 recipient3998.49853728BTCretained, returnandpegoutrestartunverified; X403 limitsnewoperatorclaims, noeventedge. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND, keepcash235.86. Validity: premises implyzero understatedmandate; soundnesslimited bydataprovenance/samples, notclaimallcryptostrategiesfail. StrongestcounterexampleBTCdaily20plain+10.82%holdoutstress+1.29% despitefailedtrain andotherdailypositive variants; selectingthosenow would useholdouttochoose, not independentvalidation. Whobenefitsfromturnover:venuefees/marketmakers;costdrain ->lesscapital ->shorterrunway. 1%equity8.5099,25%position212.7475,fundcap235.86 areceilingsnotreasons todeploy. Monitor53resolved,55at08armed; testedreplacementjobs45/46/47scheduled8x15/4x30/2x60min afterfiveactivecaprequiredcancel40/41/42. At06:15newjobsactivebutnotyetexecuted; nextmanagerverifyoutputs. Dailyjobs14/25retained. Research/recordscompleted~16minutes of42planned, noallowanceoverrun, finalphasebegan06:15. 72sweepobservations plusCLI/backtests,simulations,indicators,quality,consequences,lessonsstored. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate .

Numpyseed9070601,100000four-sessioniidpathsfrom857validtraining2020–23dailyreturns,excludezero/missingadjacentprints. LatestATR/price definesdailyendpointstop-3.0163%/target+4.5245%,checkstop/targetfirst,stopatbreachedendpoint/targetcapped,elsefourthendpoint;costfactor .999*.9995/(1.001*1.0005). Base mean-.225076%,win47.193%,targetfirst4.568%,stopfirst11.943%,time83.489%. On49.14fundnotional mean-$0.11060,p05-$2.05044. Independentassumed20%negativegap atfirstendpoint with1/5/10%windowhazard -> means-.416103/-1.219721/-2.190210%;loss>$8.5099 probability .951/4.947/9.801% atfullfund;thesehazardsarenotestimated. 0/25/50/100%fundsizinggrid recorded8524–8527;0sizehas0dollarloss. Notdatedeventforecast:poolcontainsalltrainingdaysandhistoricalnews,addedgapcoulddoublecount;dailyendpointbarriersmissintraday/15minchecks;100000pathsarenot100000independentevents. Calendarholdout p=.6,avgwin.02035497,avgloss.02779982 -> quarterbinaryKellyNOTIONAL=.25*(p/loss-(1-p)/win)=.482913;risk-unitformula .25*(p-(1-p)/(win/loss))=.0134249 isdifferentunit,notnotionalfraction. UnderstressedcostsnotionalquarterKelly=-.856486 ->clip0. NoKellyestimateadopted:CIcrosses0,coststressnegative;actualsize0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; code research/analyze.py; observation8521–8527.

IEX all-adjusted completedSep4 bar38.28;SMA20/50 39.5215/37.6946,20sessionreturn+3.796095%,ATR14 simpleTR1.154643,ADR14 high-low1.033214,20dayvol33.661113%annualized,20sessionIEXavgvolume533094. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; these arenotNBBO/consolidatedrange. Low/high20=36.47/42.19. Frozenillustrative1ATRstop37.125357/1.5ATRtarget40.011964 hasnominalRR1.5beforecosts butstopdoesnotestablishfundamentalinvalidation. Stopatsupport36.47 yieldsRR.956886usingthatattainabletarget;donotstretchto42.19tomanufactureedge. Onewhole share38.28fits49.14cap,planned1ATRloss1.15464<8.5099accountbudget;fullgaploss38.28notbounded. Hypotheticalone-share20%gap7.656beforecosts vsfullfund20%gap9.828exceedsbudget. CurrentpaperentrySep16/exitSep21 beforeSep23issuerdate; noearlyorder. Premisesrangefitsasmalldollartradebutvalidationfails;conclusion0allocation. Strongcounterargumentaffordabilityplusvaluemeanreversioncannotrepairnegativecoststress. Noexistingholdingstoadjust.

Frozen pre-entryclose>SMA50 andpositive20sessionreturn evaluatedwithcalendarT-5/T-2rule,fees5bp/slip10or25bpside. Undefined anyrequiredindicator excludesallfilteredsubgroups,includingneither;3train rowsineligible. Baseline13train/10test. At10bpslip trend/both identical:train4,+1.027424%,win25%;holdout5,+4.812912%,win60%,MTMDD3.502189%. Positive momentum train6,+4.323481%,win33.333%;holdout6,+3.580158%,win50%. Neithertrain4,+2.976194%,win75%;holdout4,-2.908878%,win75%,avgwin1.664604/avgloss7.583938%. High winfrequency concealslosstail. Filters are fixeddiagnostics,notpickedfromOOS;N4–6 cannotvalidatecurrentcombinedsignal. 40mode/split/filter/costoutputs recorded8493–8520 incl complete sweep; no extra optimization. Sep4 close38.28>SMA5037.6946 and20dmom+3.7961%,butbelowSMA2039.5215,so latest regimeisnotuniformlybullish. Counterargumenttrendfiltercouldhaveedge; needsnewindependentevents andcostuncertainty. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars andissuerdates8020–8043; research/analyze.py .

1. Position-sizing illustration uses each main-rule holdout's chronological net trade returns, resampling circular four-trade blocks into 10,000 paths of20 trades at hypothetical10% capital allocation, seed90607. AA ending return5/50/95 percentiles -2.9641/+1.5116/+7.6594%; loss frequency31.87%,95th-percentile trade-mark drawdown3.7797%. CENX -5.2178/+.8558/+7.6125%; loss41%,DD95=6.3986%. These are model-conditioned empirical scenarios, not future probability estimates; trade-mark drawdown omits adverse movement within trades and joint same-sector risk. 2. Separate exit simulation samples whole observed five-session OHLC path units from the22/26 matched entry cohorts, seed90707,10,000 draws. With priorADR stop and2ADR target, simulated stop/target/timeout percentages are AA49.74/26.72/23.54 and CENX57.03/19.18/23.79. IID bootstrap target-frequency95% intervals are9.09–45.45% and3.85–34.62%; underlying observed counts are AA11stops/6targets/5timeouts andCENX15/5/6. Sampling repeats evidence;10,000 paths are not10,000 independent events. Stop-first conflict policy and opening-gap fills; no ambiguous historicalbars. Actual 15-minute polling and extended-session depth remain unmodeled. 3. Exact fee-inclusive ADR mean returns are AA-.0762645%,CENX-.7722893%; bootstrap mean95% intervals[-1.9802,1.9385]%/[-2.9093,1.4994]%. Baseline compounded returns-3.9406%/-21.6026%, stress-8.0756%/-25.5751%. Exact figures supersede earlier approximate subtract40bp means; individual trades recorded. 4. Main-rule point quarterKelly numbers.036369/.018490 are binary unit-risk fractions, not stock allocation fractions. Stock-capital conversion under a two-outcome approximation would divide by average fractional loss; those optimistic figures are not adopted. The relevant ADR distribution has negative net mean, so long-only concave expected-log optimum is atzero; moreover base mean intervals spanzero and currententryfails. ApprovedcapitalUSD0, despite fundcash278.67, perpositioncap212.7475, equityrisk8.5099. Two actual operator-liquidation wins with no loss sample cannot substitute. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; analyses600/601,615/616 and exact exit observations8553/8555. No probability assigned to unverified future tariff/war paths. Preserve cash.

Fixednote594 prior14sessionATR stop1ATR/target1.5ATR;entryT-5open/timeexitT-2close. Dailybar engineopeninggap atopen,stopfirstifboth,cappedtarget;removeMar2022 undefinedATR->12train/10holdout. Train net+2.222662%,DD4.552563%,win50%;stress-1.391913%. Holdoutdailybar+3.009834%,DD5.771908%,win50%,avgwin2.158221/avgloss1.520104%;stress-.034576%,DD7.152712%. Higher-resolution audit fetched1040RTH15minIEXbars across10holdoutwindows,104each/no pagination;entryopen/finalclose/windowhigh exactly reconcile daily. Atfirst15minclosingtrade beyondbarrier,markexit atthatclose:3stops/3targets/4timeexits. Net+2.845122%,event-endpointDD5.808783%,win50%,avgwin2.299527/avgloss1.685185%;stress-.194420%,DD7.76618%,win40%. Morefavorabletargetfills permittedbycheckclose,notrestinglimit. Noextendedsessiondata,NBBOquotes,latency,filldepthoractual15minvenueclock;notexactexecution. Followupafterseeingdailyresults cannotbeconsideredanindependentlyselectednewedge. Premises:dailybarrieroptimismis material; evencheckproxyfailscostrobustness; unknownfirstnews remains. Conclusionrejectdeployment. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ?symbols=GIS&timeframe=15Min&feed=iex witheventdatesinobservations8528–8537;code research/check_intraday.py. Calendarstudy remainsprimary,never choosevariantbyholdout.

Frozen note593 requested ADR exit sensitivity. Preserve all 26 main-rule holdout entries and original next eligibility; early exits do not enable additional entries. At next open set stop one prior20 average daily high-low range below entry and target two ranges above. Exit fifth session close if untouched. Model an opening gap at its opening price and a same-bar conflict stop-first; none of the observed cohort had ambiguous touches. This is a matched-entry holdout sensitivity, not a separately selected strategy with a fresh independent validation set. SIP all-adjusted2025–Sep4 2026 source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Vectorbt long-only from_orders with synthetic open/exit accounting steps allows same-day entry and exit. Mark pre-exit at actual daily open, close after exit; this is an accounting proxy, not observed intraday timestamps. Entry/exit counts and compounded net equity returns reconcile. Fees10bp each side plus10bp slippage baseline,20bp stress. Exact baseline {"slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-21.602592602959675,"drawdown_pct":22.82503128442278,"n":26,"win_pct":38.46153846153847,"avg_win_pct":5.814500996130267,"avg_loss_pct":4.889033270116533,"mean_pct":-0.7722893215600712}. Stress {"slippage":0.002,"return_pct":-25.575087102594818,"drawdown_pct":25.575087102594818,"n":26,"win_pct":38.46153846153847,"avg_win_pct":5.603082989308801,"avg_loss_pct":5.079065551359626,"mean_pct":-0.97054688187177}. Returns use both entry and exit fees in the denominator and numerator; supersede initial approximate ADR mean figures. Drawdown is sampled open/close, omits unknown between-sample excursions. No calibrated15min sampling/executablequotes means true venue performance could be worse. Conclusion: required stop-target economics have negative expectation and compounded return. The positive five-session-close backtest cannot be transplanted. Long-only Kelly optimum is zero for the observed negative-mean exit distribution; no proposal.

Frozen note593 requested ADR exit sensitivity. Preserve all 22 main-rule holdout entries and original next eligibility; early exits do not enable additional entries. At next open set stop one prior20 average daily high-low range below entry and target two ranges above. Exit fifth session close if untouched. Model an opening gap at its opening price and a same-bar conflict stop-first; none of the observed cohort had ambiguous touches. This is a matched-entry holdout sensitivity, not a separately selected strategy with a fresh independent validation set. SIP all-adjusted2025–Sep4 2026 source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Vectorbt long-only from_orders with synthetic open/exit accounting steps allows same-day entry and exit. Mark pre-exit at actual daily open, close after exit; this is an accounting proxy, not observed intraday timestamps. Entry/exit counts and compounded net equity returns reconcile. Fees10bp each side plus10bp slippage baseline,20bp stress. Exact baseline {"slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-3.940575738369189,"drawdown_pct":23.249139218614435,"n":22,"win_pct":40.909090909090914,"avg_win_pct":5.161940272449477,"avg_loss_pct":3.70271398132087,"mean_pct":-0.07626451386936436}. Stress {"slippage":0.002,"return_pct":-8.075563237851439,"drawdown_pct":24.46738388717066,"n":22,"win_pct":40.909090909090914,"avg_win_pct":4.9518260858627805,"avg_loss_pct":3.8951165356090667,"mean_pct":-0.2759127359160381}. Returns use both entry and exit fees in the denominator and numerator; supersede initial approximate ADR mean figures. Drawdown is sampled open/close, omits unknown between-sample excursions. No calibrated15min sampling/executablequotes means true venue performance could be worse. Conclusion: required stop-target economics have negative expectation and compounded return. The positive five-session-close backtest cannot be transplanted. Long-only Kelly optimum is zero for the observed negative-mean exit distribution; no proposal.

23scheduledpre-earnings windows fromissuerdateobservations8020–8043 andIEX https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Holdout10events mean+.109305% but20,000calendar-yearcluster bootstrap95%meanCI[-1.408228,+.925035]%; only3yearclusters,notpreciseconfidence. Train13mean+.708895%,CI[-.237380,+1.300316]%,4clusters. HoldoutnetGIS minusgrosssamewindowSPYmean-.221269%,versusXLP-.099777%;conservativecost asymmetry,nothedgebacktest. Holdoutnetreturn percentiles0/5/50/95/100: -7.583938/-5.146350/.169236/3.731859/4.767482%. OLS trained on12finiteevents: return= -.10556970 -.02600990*prior20dmomentum +6.67488562*priorATR/open. Holdout10 R2=-2.732571 versusholdoutmeanbenchmark; momentumcorrelationtrain-.051905/holdout+.419999. Coefficientsunstable,notcausal/usableforecast. TrendSMAundefinedin3trainobservations,regressionATR/momentumundefinedin1;donotconflatesamples. Priorpositiveeventedgeunsupported; noweighedapprovalprobability. Wouldrequireindependentlargerprospectiveeventswithnetmeanlowerbound>0andrealisticexecutiontochangesizing. Statisticalresamplingdoesnotcreatenewindependentevents.

Preregistered note594 before payoffs. Issuer notices8020–8043 establish24dates;23usable T-5open/T-2close events:13train2020–23,10chronologicalholdout2024–Jul2026. Exclude2020Julprehistory;2020Sepadvance notice unverified;2020Marprehistory. Require notice beforeentry and positivevolume all4heldsessions. AlpacaIEX all-adjustedbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuerURLperrecord;calendarproxySPYtradingdates. Vectorbt explicitopenentry/closeexit,flat splits,fees5bp/slip10bp eachside. Train+9.42995%,MTMDD4.25994%,win53.846%,avgwin1.919997/avgloss.704058%. Holdout+.567138%,MTMDD9.341003%,win60%,avgwin2.035497/avgloss2.779982%,mean+.109305%perevent. At25bpslip perside holdout-2.405080%,DD10.958271%,win40%. Independent compoundedcashflow matchesvectorbt<1e-7percentagepoints. No intradayorNBBOexecution claim. Currentcandidate selectedfrompriorbroadcensus,notreturns,but survivorship/issuerselection remain. MissingprintedSMA windows excluded fromfilters,notinvented bearishsignals. Historical earliest-news/preannouncement censusincomplete: these are scheduled-window payoffs,not provenpure no-news runups. Rule rejected for deployment; positivepointestimatecannotrepaircost/uncertaintyfailure. Whole-share stop/target variant separateanalysis,notpromotedbyselectingbestholdout.

1. Freeze rule and parameter roles before prices (note593). Removing SMA50 from L20 lowers holdout return from16.16 to12.83% for AA and4.59 to2.49% for CENX; this is descriptive, not an independent filter experiment. Neighbor L10 loses16.47%/5.93%, while L40 gains30.70%/28.24%. Selecting L40 now would reuse test information. 2. The economically relevant combination is physical restoration, realized margins, a valid entry, and a net payoff for the actual exit rule. Century's measured Q2 margin improvement does not supply a first-news price label or validate the generic breakout. Neither current price passes L20 even though both exceed SMA50. 3. Changing only the exit on the same holdout entry cohort to priorADR stop/2ADR target/five-session timeout gives AA-3.94% and CENX-21.60%. Therefore base-rule win rates cannot support a stop-target proposal. Volatility subgroup means in statistical analysis do not authorize switching to a low-vol variant. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm . Valid decision logic requires all gates; counterexample is a rally before documentary cash arrives, but its probability is not measured. Keep size0.

Completed September4 SIP daily bars, retrieved September7, not live executable quotes. AA close49.97 is above SMA50=48.6814 but below prior20 closing high54.08; CENX46.775 is above45.6459 but below52.29. Both conjunctive entries fail. AA/CENX20-session returns are -.1997%/-8.6961%, ADR20 is2.01799/2.496905 or4.0384%/5.3381% of price. Trailing20 annualized volatility48.9472%/43.6170%; mean traded dollars237.786m/90.245m per day says nothing about holiday quote depth. Hypothetical stop/target scales, not proposals: AA47.95201/54.00598, CENX44.278095/51.76881. Positioncap212.7475 permits4 shares each, but nominalADR risk8.5099 permits4 AA or3 CENX. Actual gaps and 15-minute sampling can exceed the nominal1% equity loss. Whole-share arithmetic is an upper bound, not edge-based authorization. Binding entry and payoff gates both fail, so approved quantity0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1. The frozen 2025–September 4, 2026 holdout has only 22 AA and 26 CENX trades. Net mean returns are 0.8684% and 0.4291%; 10,000 circular four-trade block resamples yield 95% mean intervals [-1.7738,4.2172]% and [-2.7594,3.7542]%. Both include zero. Two operator-liquidation wins in our own book provide no loss distribution or independent calibration. 2. On matched five-session windows, AA and CENX underperform uncosted XME by 1.3465 and 0.3836 percentage points per trade. This compares net strategy to gross benchmark, not clean alpha. Daily AA/CENX correlation is 0.6652. Equal initial strategy sleeves returned 10.3778% with 17.6426% close-mark drawdown and 0.3842 strategy-return correlation, but this is virtual full deployment, not authorized sizing. 3. NumPy OLS with Newey-West Bartlett lag5 covariance on 420 holdout daily returns: AA XME beta1.0600, daily intercept -0.08397%, asymptotic HAC p=.5051, R²=.4705; CENX beta1.1907, intercept+.07418%, p=.6039, R²=.3901. Descriptive exposures, no predictive stock alpha established. statsmodels unavailable; direct matrix implementation used. 4. Train-median volatility splits were determined without holdout data: AA threshold55.95% annualized, CENX69.08%. High-vol holdout means -.4450% N7 and -1.2889% N6; low-vol +1.4813% N15 and +.9446% N20. Small selected subgroups cannot justify a new low-vol rule. Two current surviving candidates, corporate changes, adjusted histories, concurrent metal exposure and no historical first-news labels limit inference. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations8047–8078 and individual trade observations8430 onward. Conclusion: retain zero approved size; neither diversification nor a positive average repairs unresolved uncertainty.

Premises1 completedAug31-Sep6 census36publishedUSDpairs ranked sumvolume*VWAP; top10USDC,BTC,ETH,USDG,XRP,SOL,LINK,UNI,LTC,USDT. USDGonly3/7days so rankprovisional; not liveassetentitlement or globalvolume. LINK13.2346>prior20closemax12.0527,UNI7.294845>7.04908,LTC54.95535>54.72185. BTC/ETH/SOLno20dayclosebreakout.2 Sep7 06:04quotes7/10freshvalid; stablecoinsstale. Expected immediatequotedroundtriploss with25bptakereachsideBTC.5184%,ETH.5126%,SOL.6025%,LINK.7187%,UNI.6973%,LTC1.0606%, before additionalimpact. BTCask80.50USD,ETH83.29,SOL100.71 approx displayed singlelevel below212.75cap; not totaldepth nor guaranteedfill.3 Daily/hourly selectedmajorholdouts fail; no new independentvalidated altbreakout or stablecoin conversionedge, historicaltoptenmembership unverified. Conclusion no newnameorder, pricelevel alone insufficient. Freshfunding/OI sixfieldsverified06:04, SOLforecast-.152569bp for08UTC vssettlementfield+.171939bp; no settlednegativeclaim and no validatedfundingpayoff. Currentone-venueOIisnotgloballeveragedemand. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Premises1 raw latestdaily rv20 perday2.9001/4.6850/3.9021%; all above trailing120median, so selectedBTC/ETHlowvol gatesfalse despitepriceabove100SMA. SOLraw50SMA signaltrue; all threehourlyselectedsignalstrue, hourlyrv20 .2008/.2774/.4900%.2 Rawfullsample momentum-volcorrelationsdaily-.05884/+.02191/-.05551 andhourly-.06919/-.09324/-.01778 areweak descriptivelinear associations; no causal payoff.3 Rawtrainselecteddaily100lowvol/100lowvol/50plain loses8.77/4.70/22.64%holdout. Calendar/aggregation sensitivity dailybest100lowvol/100lowvol/20lowvol returns0/+15.76/+11.80% onN0/2/1; hourly-52.19/-58.57/-49.24% remainsfailed. Full72setting evaluations recorded individually (36raw,36sensitivity); not allneighborsnegative and no pickingholdoutwinner. RawBTCdaily20plain holdout+10.82% (doublestress+1.29%) but train-15.16%, not selected; this is a counterexampleto'alltrendruleslose', not an eligibleedge. Conclusion addingindicators does notrepair missingdata, regimeinstability or turnovercost. Staycash; require prospectivefrozenrule record and independentprovenance before discoveryOOSclaim. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .