Runway

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3882 analyses, newest first
Holiday trading review: prior rejection stands; no executable window
StrategiesrejectOptions mispricingTLT, EEM, GLD, CHWY2026-09-07 12:32
Premises: 1 Entry requires an open venue and fresh executable synchronous quotes. 2 A proposed long cheap leg must clear independent model value, ask-to-bid costs and realistic exit gates. 3 Actual costed option holdout p/W/L must support positive quarterKelly; underlying forecasts are not option returns. 4 Whole contract full premium must fit1% equity and book caps. Validity: failure of any necessary gate entails no proposal. Soundness: exchange calendar reread Sep7 https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars confirms holiday; live own trades[] and five future armed monitors. Prior saved analyses650/607 retain 187 affordable legs with0 baseline passes, unknown option p/W/L and OPRA403 as of08:02UTC (not retested thisrun). No new evidence in latest own notes overturns rejection. Risk arithmetic from prior650: equity850.99,1%=8.5099, fund127.65, position25%=212.7475. For standard100 multiplier, R=100a+c and net targetprofit=100b-100a-c; >=1.5R requires b>=2.5(100a+c)/100. Assumed, unverified c=.20 and a=.03 require b=.08 versus prior optimistic TLT .06787634009. Do not inflate target to pass. Startflat, goal repeatable net option edge; binding constraints closed venue, unvalidated option payoff history and failed costed values. Counterexample: reopened fresh dislocation could qualify later; closure alone is temporary but does not repair other gates. A stop cannot replace fullpremiumrisk rule. Facts end at live calendar/ledger/job and prior recorded measurements; fees, futurevol, executable exit and option p/W/L remain unknown, allocation0 rather than p=0. Marketmakers can earn spread; funding shortfall349.01 supplies no probability. Consequences: holiday prevents fresh venue execution, Friday quotes remain stale, a queued interpretation would expose future session to unvalidated prices. No new screening/backtest/simulation claimed; scope is trading review of already recorded research. Job22 healthy9runs, next13:15UTC closed-market skip; firstpostopen17:15UTC Sep8, omitsCHWY. Existing30/56/51 cover chosen research windows; none due before nextSep7 13:50UTC run. No need for duplicate monitor or job. Preserve127.65 cash, no orders/exits/adjustments. Prior model sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative and analogous EEM/GLD, plus saved650/607; direct operations runway query_trades/list_monitors/list_jobs fundmispricing.
equity850.99
fund_cash127.65
risk_cap8.51
prior_legs187
prior_passes0
own_trades0
due_monitors0
job_runs9
allocation0
prior_target0.07
required_bid0.08
QIM90708 final decision: reject intraday transfers; retain $245.69 cash before Tuesday
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:21
Numbered premises:1.Frozen360rowexperiment records no positive result at5bpper-side orhigher. Main10bp holdouts SPY-77.7773%,EEM-71.3673%,EFA-70.4248%,TLT-59.6151%,withnegative training;allmainquarterKelly0.2.TLT2bpholdout+.852% fails training-21.009% and2026-3.937%; strongHACt doesnot establishstable netedge.3.Mean95%blockintervals arebelowzero;officialdailycloseendpointaudit remainsnegative.4.No quantpositions/pendingorders;Tuesdayintradaysignalunknown,SPYwhole-sharecapacity0,and exacttime-exit/stop/targetmanagement notvalidated. Conclusion No proposals;actualsize0,retain245.69cash. Validity:predeclared adoptiongatesfail. Soundness:cashreconciliation/PDTchecks andprice/calendar audits support rejection of thesefeed-based transfers;data/auction/selectionlimitations prevent universal claimsaboutpublishedmomentum. StrongestcounterexampleTLTcheapcostpositiveholdout is acknowledged but cannotrepairfailedtraining. Startcash;goalrepeatable netedge;bindingconstraintvalidated executablepayoff,not accountshortfall. Primarysources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf ; https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Preopencalendaranalysis666,financialbaseline664,owntradecalibration665,allnewworkpubliclyrecorded. Sixquantmonitorsnowarmed,nonebeforenextrun;job35collects09:15UTCbefore12:30UTCmanager. NewCensusQFR andSep9macroreviews59/60 havebothbranches,noautomaticorders. Lessons249/250/251 saved. Archive689/690/691/692/686readbackverified;rawdatarefetchmayrevise.
fixed tests360
positive at 5bp or more0
SPY holdout return-77.78
SPY holdout sample704
SPY win rate13.78
SPY average win0.15
SPY average loss0.27
TLT holdout return-59.62
quarter Kelly0
actual size0
quant cash245.69
armed monitors6
QIM90708 full sensitivity and closing-price audit: rejection survives endpoint changes
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:19
1.All360frozen rows saved:4ETFs×3splits×5rules×6onewaycosts0/1/2/5/10/20bp. Mainr1 holdoutreturns at10bp SPY-77.7773,EEM-71.3673,EFA-70.4248,TLT-59.6151%. At5bp all20ETF/ruleholdoutcells negative.2.TLTmain2bp holdout+.8522% over5years,training-21.0091%,2026-3.937%;ROD2bp holdout+3.769%,training-17.864%,recent-3.526%. No cheapcostvariant is adopted.3.Excludedearlycloses with exchange_calendars4.13.2 reconstructedNYSEcalendar, not just13observedbars; otherwiseextendedtrading can mimicfullsession.4.SPY30minclose vsdailyclose discrepancy max279.40bp onMarch12 2020;EEM118.36bp,EFA211.71bp,TLT28.30bp. Officialdailyclose diagnosticSPYholdout at10bp-77.1045%,gross-6.4085%; timingsemantics matter but do not rescuecostedrule. Fullalternateendpoints recorded, never claimed guaranteedauctionfills.5.Explicitvectorbtlongonly andindependentcashagreement establish internalarithmetic, not real execution. Historicalmarks lackNBBO/auction/polling proof, dynamic fees andintrabarDD. Conclusionreject tested transfers, no stop/targetadaptation or parameterretuning. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars ; primary papers inanalysis660.
fixed rows360
SPY main return-77.78
EEM main return-71.37
EFA main return-70.42
TLT main return-59.62
TLT 2bp holdout0.85
TLT 2bp training-21.01
TLT recent 2bp-3.94
SPY alternate close return-77.1
SPY max close gap bp279.4
actual size0
QIM90708 consequence chain: published hedging effect versus this account's economics
ConsequencesrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:19
Start state245.69quantcash,850.99account equity; goalrepeatable executable netpayoff; bindingconstraintcostededge and exitcontrol. Premises:1.Short-gamma hedging can buy rising markets/sell falling ones; Robeco-affiliated study https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf gives historical mechanism, not currentdealerinventory.2.Our4ETF cash-onlytime-exit transfers have negative training/holdout at maincosts;TLT2bp holdout+.852% is small and training-21.009%.3.Fundschedule and15minpolling cannot be assumed to deliver a specific15:30entry/16exit. Firstorder: adverse spreads/slippage consume a few-basis-point payoff. Secondorder: repeated same-day roundtrips compoundcosts and compete for3PDTslots; restricting slots changes the portfolio but remainsnegative. Thirdorder: transferring a publishedfuturesSharpe or cherry-pickedlowcostholdout to account sizing increases exposure without demonstrated economics. Liquidity providers/brokers benefit from turnover; hedgers may rationally pay costs to reduce other risks, unlike our outrightalpha objective. Strongestcounterargument: advanced low-cost execution can exploit this effect, especiallyTLTlaterperiod. That can coexist with our rejection because instruments,costs,periods and mandates differ. No inference of a universal momentum failure; no redesign on the inspected sample. Facts end at observedreturns; futuredealerflows and optimalexecutionunknown.
quant cash245.69
account equity850.99
TLT 2bp holdout0.85
TLT 2bp training-21.01
PDT slots3
main oneway bp10
actual size0
QIM90708 Tuesday eligibility: Friday signals expired, no pre-open order or stops
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:17
1.September4rawcloses SPY770.19,EEM68.70,EFA108.35,TLT82.21;SMA200712.1529/61.74135/101.5884/86.247. Prior20sessionreturns-.3970/+4.6618/-.1842/-.6646%;context only, not new fittedfilters.2.Friday r1positive onlyEEM/TLT, but each rule closes sameday; those historicalsignals expired. Tuesdayr1requiresTuesday10ETprice,RODrequires15:30boundary; Mondayholiday creates no entry.3.Positioncap212.7475 permits0/3/1/2whole shares, respectively.20daymeandollarvolume27.975bn/1.071bn/.930bn/2.328bn shows aggregatecapacityisnotbinding atthissize; quotesandtimeexitexecutionstillunverified.4.No heldpositions, pendingorders, timehorizon or targetprogresstoreview. No stop/target manufactured for a rejected parentrule. User schedule15:40ET entryreview and17ETnextreview doesnotautomaticallyexecute15:30–16timeexit; a marketablelimit also cannotguarantee exactformation. Conclusion no preopenorders/stops,actualsize0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; calendar https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars .
SPY close770.19
EEM close68.7
EFA close108.35
TLT close82.21
SPY whole shares0
EEM whole shares3
EFA whole shares1
TLT whole shares2
position cap212.75
fund cash245.69
Tuesday signal known0
actual size0
QIM90708 Monte Carlo sizing and 24-day runway scenarios retain zero exposure
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:17
1. At10bponeway all4main,ROD andPDT holdout variants imply quarterKelly0 from empirical winprobability/averagewin/loss. SPY main p13.778409%,avgwin.147373%,avgloss.270744%;TLT p11.363636%,avgwin.126794%,avgloss.194806%. Actualsize0.2.20000 random24-calendar-day contiguous historical windows, hypothetical25%accountallocationpertrade from850.99, yield main PnL5th/median/95th SPY[-7.2522,-4.1051,-.9631],EEM[-5.6375,-3.4835,-1.4568],EFA[-5.6374,-3.4271,-1.1810],TLT[-4.5511,-2.5483,-.2636]USD. Loss frequencies97.66/99.545/99.855/96.34%; zero349.01USD gains in sampledwindows.3.PDTSPY windows[-6.5256,-3.4467,-.8002],loss96.985%,zeroKelly. These are historical resampling frequencies, not forward probabilities; no fixed overhead, intrabar risk, accountwidecompetingdaytrades or unexpectedexecutionfailures.4.No stop/target exit odds estimated because these parentrules have time exits; assigning targethitrates would invent data. Nominalriskcap8.5099 is not a guaranteedgaplosslimit. Conclusion protectcash; no sizing to repair the monthly shortfall. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; seed90708, stats.py; separate20-session blockbootstrapmeanCI recorded.
paths20000
SPY p win13.78
SPY avg win0.15
SPY avg loss0.27
SPY median USD-4.11
SPY p05 USD-7.25
SPY p95 USD-0.96
TLT median USD-2.55
SPY loss pct97.66
sampled threshold gains0
quarter Kelly0
actual size0
QIM90708 morning direction, range and afternoon confirmation fail to rescue costs
IndicatorsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:17
1. Fixed r1+r12positive confirmation holdouts at10bponeway: SPY-52.912%,EEM-43.372%,EFA-44.775%,TLT-34.105%; fewer trades reduce fee drag but do not create positive expectancy. 2. Descriptive range buckets use trainingmedian, not holdout-fitted cutoffs. SPY morningrange threshold.298693%; highrange424trades mean-.233950%,lowrange280 mean-.181613%. TLT threshold.241432%; high446 mean-.150674%,low126 mean-.185114%. 3. SPY r12 coefficient injointregression+.153300,HACt2.621 while r1-.029226,t-1.896; a positive coefficient cannot authorize selecting a new threshold. Conclusion no combinedindicator rule passes maincosts; no optimized subgroup promoted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Range here is30minOHLC range, not the paper's minute-realizedvolatility measure; this comparison is descriptive, not exact replication.
SPY both return-52.91
EEM both return-43.37
EFA both return-44.77
TLT both return-34.1
SPY highrange N424
SPY highrange mean-0.23
SPY lowrange N280
SPY lowrange mean-0.18
TLT highrange mean-0.15
TLT lowrange mean-0.19
SPY r12 HAC t2.62
actual size0
QIM90708 predictive significance does not establish a costed edge
StatisticalrejectQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:17
1. Holdout2021–25 has1245full sessions perETF. OLS last-halfhour return on r1 gives slopes SPY-.028106,EEM-.016425,EFA-.001546,TLT+.023596; HAC5 t=-1.835,-2.647,-.174,+3.306. TLT rest-of-day slope+.026362,t4.480,R2.024079. 2. Main costed trade means have20-session-block bootstrap95% intervals entirely negative: SPY[-.233140,-.193289]%,EEM[-.216185,-.193609]%,EFA[-.202470,-.178244]%,TLT[-.173341,-.142993]%.3.TLT grossmain mean4.16227bp implies approximate one-waybreakeven2.08113bp before overhead; low-costholdout positivity does not survive training. Conclusion reject cash allocation. These regressions describe association, not causal dealer gamma; exact quotes, fees and source endpoint anomalies are limitations. Survivor-selected ETFs and earlier inspected marketperiods limit claims of independent global discovery. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; statistics.py uses seed90708,20000 draws; all36regression specifications recorded. Multiple tests were not selected for a trading rule.
holdout sessions1245
SPY slope-0.03
SPY HAC t-1.83
TLT slope0.02
TLT HAC t3.31
TLT ROD HAC t4.48
SPY mean CI low-0.23
SPY mean CI high-0.19
TLT mean CI low-0.17
TLT mean CI high-0.14
TLT breakeven bp2.08
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT r1 recent: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-16.151854%, closedwealthDD16.151854%, N85, wins1.176471%, mean-0.206994%, averagewin0.028136%, averageloss0.209793%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-16.15
drawdown16.15
win rate1.18
sample85
average win0.03
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-22.98
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT pdt holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-55.191299%, closedwealthDD55.191299%, N511, wins11.350294%, mean-0.156838%, averagewin0.135632%, averageloss0.194284%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-55.19
drawdown55.19
win rate11.35
sample511
average win0.14
average loss0.19
mean trade-0.16
annualized pct-15
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT rod holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-60.584141%, closedwealthDD60.584141%, N605, wins11.735537%, mean-0.153636%, averagewin0.128209%, averageloss0.191110%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-60.58
drawdown60.58
win rate11.74
sample605
average win0.13
average loss0.19
mean trade-0.15
annualized pct-17.18
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT r1 holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-59.615132%, closedwealthDD59.615132%, N572, wins11.363636%, mean-0.158261%, averagewin0.126794%, averageloss0.194806%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-59.62
drawdown59.62
win rate11.36
sample572
average win0.13
average loss0.19
mean trade-0.16
annualized pct-16.77
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-71.383763%, closedwealthDD71.383763%, N659, wins4.552352%, mean-0.189575%, averagewin0.119127%, averageloss0.204299%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-71.38
drawdown71.38
win rate4.55
sample659
average win0.12
average loss0.2
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.39
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT r1 train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.035476%, closedwealthDD72.035476%, N649, wins4.776579%, mean-0.195917%, averagewin0.145722%, averageloss0.213055%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.04
drawdown72.04
win rate4.78
sample649
average win0.15
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.2
annualized pct-22.75
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA r1 recent: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-14.042114%, closedwealthDD14.042114%, N91, wins6.593407%, mean-0.166046%, averagewin0.210324%, averageloss0.192614%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-14.04
drawdown14.04
win rate6.59
sample91
average win0.21
average loss0.19
mean trade-0.17
annualized pct-20.09
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA pdt holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-64.124066%, closedwealthDD64.124066%, N538, wins5.018587%, mean-0.190258%, averagewin0.160302%, averageloss0.208781%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-64.12
drawdown64.12
win rate5.02
sample538
average win0.16
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-18.74
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA rod holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-70.597717%, closedwealthDD70.597717%, N649, wins5.855162%, mean-0.188323%, averagewin0.138181%, averageloss0.208630%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-70.6
drawdown70.6
win rate5.86
sample649
average win0.14
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-21.95
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA r1 holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-70.424826%, closedwealthDD70.424826%, N639, wins5.477308%, mean-0.190357%, averagewin0.154433%, averageloss0.210336%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-70.42
drawdown70.42
win rate5.48
sample639
average win0.15
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-21.85
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-70.815321%, closedwealthDD70.815321%, N661, wins6.656581%, mean-0.185949%, averagewin0.219224%, averageloss0.214843%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-70.82
drawdown70.82
win rate6.66
sample661
average win0.22
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.03
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA r1 train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.435609%, closedwealthDD72.435609%, N666, wins6.606607%, mean-0.193105%, averagewin0.212972%, averageloss0.221831%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.44
drawdown72.44
win rate6.61
sample666
average win0.21
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.93
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM r1 recent: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-13.086596%, closedwealthDD13.197733%, N96, wins14.583333%, mean-0.145764%, averagewin0.219555%, averageloss0.208136%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-13.09
drawdown13.2
win rate14.58
sample96
average win0.22
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.15
annualized pct-18.77
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM pdt holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-65.193973%, closedwealthDD65.193973%, N521, wins5.182342%, mean-0.202259%, averagewin0.113640%, averageloss0.219525%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-65.19
drawdown65.19
win rate5.18
sample521
average win0.11
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.2
annualized pct-19.23
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM rod holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.989801%, closedwealthDD72.989801%, N631, wins4.754358%, mean-0.207122%, averagewin0.108031%, averageloss0.222853%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.99
drawdown72.99
win rate4.75
sample631
average win0.11
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-23.28
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM r1 holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-71.367297%, closedwealthDD71.367297%, N609, wins5.582923%, mean-0.205036%, averagewin0.104456%, averageloss0.223336%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-71.37
drawdown71.37
win rate5.58
sample609
average win0.1
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-22.36
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.776051%, closedwealthDD72.776051%, N685, wins10.948905%, mean-0.189558%, averagewin0.166518%, averageloss0.233338%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.78
drawdown72.78
win rate10.95
sample685
average win0.17
average loss0.23
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-23.12
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
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