Stats

Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.73e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.750248,-0.081568]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.

Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 5.04e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.331797,0.227813]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.

ResearchYahoocharts https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/EGTX.ST , /ABVX,/4431.T,/0513.HK,/BTC-USD,/ETH-USD,/SOL-USD (fullURLsobs10133–45). ExcludedongoingSep8bars. EGTXlastvalidSep4SEK7.70aboveSMA50 6.751,20row+8.757%;SmaregiSep7JPY3485above3169.76,+8.906%;ABVXSep4USD114.79below125.153,-12.327%. 0513.HKSep7HKD.13above.1148,+8.333%,butdateunverified. CryptoSep7barabsent,latestcompleteavailableSep6,raw20rowreturnsBTC24.562/ETH31.500/SOL40.166% andSMA50 allbelowclose; stalehistorynotcurrenttape. Premises: trendaloneisdescriptive; exactdate/venueandneteventpayoffgatesfailindependently; conclusionnosignaladoption. Ratesare20observedrows,notassumed20calendardays; foreignFXanddifferentholidaysprecludenaiveranking. Countercasemomentumcouldcontinuethroughcalendar,requiresseparatecostedactualwindowtest; cannotborrowunrelatedcryptofundedge. No positive payoff probability assigned.

ScreenSep8 02UTC: downloadedbothNasdaqTraderdirectories https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ;13155non-testinstruments/7499nonETF,includesADRs,warrants,preferreds,not13155operatingcompanies. Joined206uniqueleadsfrom4weeks https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-14 ; allmatched. Nasdaq23dateAPIrequests timeout,soexhaustiveprimaryeventcoverageNOTachieved. Global17weekdayfirstpages https://www.rttnews.com/Calendar/Earnings.aspx?Date=14-Sep-2026 yield419rows/391foreignsymbols/15suffixes; off-requestdates/paginationlimit. Primarytopchecks: PLAYSep14afterclose verified,estimatedSep21wrong; backtest848rejects. EGTX.STSep28FDA https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-interim-report-q2-2026/ exactdatevalid butfunding/earlybinary/venueFX/edgeunknown. ABVXSep21H1 https://ir.abivax.com/financial-information/financial-calendar/ dateonly;114.79staleshare>49.14fund andeventedgeunknown. Smaregi4431.TSep14FY27Q1 https://corp.smaregi.jp/en/ir/ confirmed,companynewsletterapprox16local https://note.com/smaregi/n/nd448d492cd9f ; venue/lot/FX/netedgeunknown. CANcrypto-linkedearningsSep8beforeopen https://investor.canaan-creative.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canaan-inc-report-second-quarter-2026-financial-results leaves0regularsessions. 0513.HK,EBF,KBH estimatedcalendarleads notpromoted: boundedissuersearchfailedcurrentdateconfirmation (https://www.continental.com.hk/en/investor_relations/financial_report/ ; https://www.ennis.com/ ; https://investor.kbhome.com/). BTC/ETH/SOLdescriptivehistorydoesnotestablishdatedearnings/FDAtransmissionedge; ETHSep3ACDC186 https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496 movesSepoliatestnettoOct6,noexactmainnetdate. Premises: exactdate,validpayoffandfeasibleexecutionallneeded; conclusionnewwatchlist,zeroorders. Validityofcashdecisiondoesnotmeanall206opportunitiesbad. Selectionbiasandmissingcoverageexplicit; primaryissueroptimismnotindependentapprovalproof. Fiveconfirmednewdatesmeansnewtothisrunwatchlist,notnewpublicannouncements.

Frozen875: priorclose>SMA100 and EWMA RSI2<10,exitRSI2>70or10bars,nextadjacentopen,longonly.100observationsperfrequency.Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage.Development2023–25afterlast>3hourgap;thresholds5/10/15,fixed2026Jan1–Sep7chronologicalholdout(previouslyseenmarket,notpristine). {"results":[{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":26301,"return_pct":-69.84295255809472,"drawdown_pct":69.8429525580947,"n":236,"win_rate_pct":14.83050847457627,"avg_win_pct":0.6338450505496681,"avg_loss_pct":0.7024080206590073,"expectancy_pct":-0.5042348956916192,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":26301,"return_pct":-88.26689244628714,"drawdown_pct":88.26689244628712,"n":236,"win_rate_pct":7.627118644067797,"avg_win_pct":0.6873034912764306,"avg_loss_pct":1.033684576709593,"expectancy_pct":-0.902422774914049,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":26301,"return_pct":-95.83945490743633,"drawdown_pct":95.87742259339439,"n":501,"win_rate_pct":14.97005988023952,"avg_win_pct":0.5958883209042197,"avg_loss_pct":0.8447829793563998,"expectancy_pct":-0.6291136230299599,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":26301,"return_pct":-99.43918409729861,"drawdown_pct":99.43918409729861,"n":501,"win_rate_pct":6.786427145708583,"avg_win_pct":0.7070394651247864,"avg_loss_pct":1.1530356236407555,"expectancy_pct":-1.0268029828862077,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":26301,"return_pct":-99.03939743651594,"drawdown_pct":99.04852711559184,"n":731,"win_rate_pct":15.595075239398085,"avg_win_pct":0.5184256587773208,"avg_loss_pct":0.8424242972573808,"expectancy_pct":-0.6301987227184532,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":26301,"return_pct":-99.94839863698708,"drawdown_pct":99.94839863698708,"n":731,"win_rate_pct":6.429548563611491,"avg_win_pct":0.6418770315865362,"avg_loss_pct":1.1426187753489785,"expectancy_pct":-1.0278837508264487,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":5999,"return_pct":-48.795450077160005,"drawdown_pct":48.795450077160005,"n":120,"win_rate_pct":15,"avg_win_pct":0.39427010411581187,"avg_loss_pct":0.7224464308036858,"expectancy_pct":-0.5549389505657611,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":5999,"return_pct":-68.3155408269499,"drawdown_pct":68.31554082694988,"n":120,"win_rate_pct":4.166666666666666,"avg_win_pct":0.46019652160623176,"avg_loss_pct":1.014364458628578,"expectancy_pct":-0.9529244177854612,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0}],"quality":{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","original":32300,"used":32300,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":4,"start":"2023-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 23:00:00+00:00"},"bootstrap":{"symbol":"BTC","n":120,"block_length":5,"simulations":20000,"expectancy_pct":-0.5549389505657611,"mean_ci95_pct":[-0.673255996577848,-0.4473682592603953],"prob_mean_positive":0}} Premises1negativeexpectancy;2dailyN2insufficient;3actual15minexitpolicyuntested.Conclusionreject,sizezero.Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_rule.py,results_1Hour.json,audit.py.

Facts:PLAYQ1cashbridge anddebt from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000152576926000026/play-20260505.htm ; EGTXSep28FDA/350MSEKraise https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-interim-report-q2-2026/ ; CANSep8beforeopen https://investor.canaan-creative.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canaan-inc-report-second-quarter-2026-financial-results . CONDITIONAL chains, notforecasts: PLAY1 lowercapex/saleleasebacks increasecurrentreportedcash;2 deferredrefresh/fixedfutureleasecosts couldpressureguestdemandorcoverage;3 equitythenbearsresidualfinancingrisk whilelandlords/lendersreceivecontractualcash. Bullcounterchain1same-storesalesrecover;2operatingleverageexpandsorganicFCF;3debtpaydownreducesinterest andimprovesequityoptionality; noobservedQ2proof. EGTX1approvalcouldopenUSpaidaccess/conditionalvoucher;2 distribution, reimbursement andlaunchspenddeterminecashconversion;3 greatercashmayreduceequityissuance. CRL/delayinsteadconsumesfunding andincreasesdilutionrisk; optimistic sponsor languagebenefitsfinancing,notindependentFDAconfirmation. CAN1hardware/mineeconomics revealenterpriseconditions;2 minerordersaffectequipmentmargin;3 inferencefromonesmallissuer toBTCaggregateprice requiresmarketshare andindependenttransmissionevidence absenthere. No directcryptorunupedgefromCANearnings orETHtestnet. Allbranchesrequireindependentneteventvalidation; stayflat.

Direct query_trades fund=catalyst Sep8 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev (tool record runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst). Python exact entry/exit/qty calculation:3losses,mean-16.3806%,sum-31.9373USD; RARE93.322%oflosses and loss6.440R versus original25.84entry/24stop. MIRM andIONS operator liquidations censor their planned horizons; cannot infer zero truewinprobability or infer efficacyoforiginaltargets. No average winningtrade exists. Premises: n3biased/censored record cannot calibrate positiveedge; conclusion live-recordKelly unidentifiable, adopted0. NewPLAY N6 holdout win2/3 andW5.972/L7.795 yieldpositive mechanicalKelly but intervalcrosseszero andtrainingfails; no pooling differentcatalysts to pretend n9 homogeneous. Slippage by ordertype/session unavailable without decisionquotes, so exit-minus-entry is return,notexecution slippage. Countercasebad luck possible, doesnotestablishprobability.

Numpy RNG90802 after configuration bootstraps,100000paths of4 dailyOHLCvectors from1004training2021–24 days; Yahoo https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLAY . Within-dayvectors preserved, IID days destroyserialclustering. Start8.72, fixed1ATRstop8.19121,target9.51318; stop-first/gap-openstop, cappedtarget, fees5bp/slip10bp per side. Netmean-.061527%,win46.983%,p05-6.3454%,p95+8.7693%,stops29.830%,targets17.638%,time52.532%. Premises: costs and barrier path matter; resampled general days do not estimate earnings payoff. Conclusion zero allocation, no Kelly from this generic model. No one-shareloss exceeds8.5099 in finite samples, NOT proof zero gaprisk. Assumed30% gap onfive8.72shares loses13.08; full49.14notional14.742, both exceedrisk. Gap probability unestimated. Strongcountercaseeventconditioning could outperform genericpaths, but small eventholdout uncertainty and negative training alreadyreject.

Premises:1 Sep4 Yahoo close8.72 below20/50/200SMAs9.715/10.212/13.491,RSI14Wilder39.455,20sessionreturn-15.093%; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLAY .2 ATR14simple.52879,ADR20.52045 constrain plausible four-session target.3 Hypothetical1ATRstop8.19121/1.5ATRtarget9.51318 only1.5grossRR, netRR 1.3820 at5bp fees/10bp slippage fails1.5net gate. Twentydaylow8.30 only.42belowclose,less thanoneATR;20dayhigh11.10 too remote for base-hit without measured edge. Five shares43.60 nominally fit49.14fund, but affordability is not edge; oneATRfive-shareloss2.64 beforefees, unbounded gap distinct. 60dailySPYcorrelation.14445 is descriptive, not independence proof. Combined falling-trend/moderateRSI supplies no reversal evidence. Countercase oversold rebound/short covering possible but no independent signal validated. No levels adopted; prices stale and cross-provider, no executable quotes.

Preregistered note876 before returns: T-4 open through T-1 close; actual pending window Sep8–11 before Sep14 issuer-confirmed aftermarket results https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 . 22 quarterly dates from primary8K bodies, 16 train2021–24,6 holdout2025–26; three Item2.02 business updates excluded and two cover dates corrected. Yahoo adjusted dailyOHLC1425bars https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLAY after venue429; research fallback, not same execution feed. Longonly vectorbt,5bp fees/10bp slippage each side, full-equity research portfolio; 1ATR14 stop/1.5ATR14 target based on prior day, gap-stop at open, stop-first on ambiguous daily bar, target capped. Return independently reconciled to compounded net trades. Train-13.155%,DD25.154%,win37.5%; holdout+6.879%,DD12.737%,win66.667%,mean1.383% per four-session opportunity, mean bootstrap20k95%CI[-4.485,7.251]%. Mechanical holdout quarterKelly5.790% is NOT adopted; trainKelly0. Stress25bp slip: train-17.225%,holdout+4.972%,CI[-4.771,6.930]%. No-barrier baseline train+1.409%,holdout+14.760%, but training negative-3.344% under cost stress. T3/T5 sensitivity observed only, no winner selection. Limits: selected small cohort, historical advance notices/preannouncements, daily bars miss15min and extended-session fills, marked DD omits highs/lows, cross-provider corporate actions. No trade; positive holdout cannot override failed training, costs and interval. CLI SMA10/50 diagnostic separate:11trades,-14.043%return,47.501%DD,27.273%win; not event strategy.

CompletedSep7 venue dailycloseallseven>SMA100,20dayreturnsBTC22.28%,ETH29.95%,SOL34.85%,LTC24.48%,LINK33.79%,UNI108.37%,XRP39.57%. EWMA RSI2 BTC27.14,ETH48.52,SOL42.42,LTC93.80,LINK58.98,UNI45.65,XRP31.31; threshold<10none. Premises1 highertrenddoesnotmeanoversoldentry;2 LTC20dayclosinghighalertdistinctfrompriorhighbreakoutandfrompullbackrule;3 currentstatecannotrescuedailyN0–2. Conclusionnoentry. RawADR14BTC3.01%,ETH3.75%,SOL5.76%,LTC4.71%,LINK5.77%,UNI10.02%,XRP5.34% arefeeddiagnosticsnotorderlevels,prioraggregationdefectsneedfreshhourlyaudit. Counterexample momentumcouldcontinuewithoutpullback; thisruleacceptsmissedmoves. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; allindicatorsrecorded, frozen875. Fieldscomputedonsamecompletedbar; noSept8intradaylookahead.

NumPy seed20260908 resamples20000paths from247overlapping3dailyreturnblocksJan2–Sep7 2026. NoGaussianextrapolation, preserveswithinblocksequence; fixed$212.7475position, nofees/intradayexitsorentryalpha. Simulated1%terminaltail loss BTC25.04,ETH39.35,SOL32.39,LTC25.74,LINK32.66,UNI31.44,XRP25.41dollars; BTCexpectedshortfall32.01,ETH42.84. Probabilitydailyclosepathloss>$8.5099 BTC15.21%,ETH22.73%,SOL28.705%,UNI33.725%. Linear99%terminalVaRsizesBTC72.29/ETH46.01/SOL55.90/UNI57.58areillustrativeexposurebounds,NOTapprovedallocationsorstops. Premises1 25%venuecapnotrisktolerance;2 dailyclosepaths missintradaytailandfuturestructuralbreaks;3 finitehistorical247blocksnot20000independentmarketobservations. Conclusion actualsizezero withoutpositiveindependentedge; futureedge requiresquarterKellyAND plannedriskcapwith15minexitlatency. Strongcounterargumentstopscouldreducelosses, butgaps/latencymaydefeatthem; simulateactualpolicyonlyafteredgegate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; code simulate.py,simulation.json. NoapprovalforVaRsizedtrade.

1 ATI/HWM first-order: qualification barriers can preserve supplierpricing, but limitedupstreammaterials canstallproduction. Second-order: inventory/prepayments andpenalties absorbprofit; third-order: customersdual-source/integrate andnewcapacitycompressesrent. Disclosures https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm . Counterexample: sustainedcashprofits in828 show constraintsneednotdestroyvalue. 2 IREN first: grid-connectedcapacity earnsAIcontracts while mininghardware retires. Second: delayedcustomeracceptance leavesGPUfinancingcosts running; third: hardwareobsolescence/customerbargaining canoutlastscarcity. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000052/iren-20260630.htm . Counterexample: customerprepayments andprofitableaccepteddeployments couldsolvebridge; requirefuturecashdisclosures,notassumeddefault. 3 Prysmianfirst: transmissionandoptical demand raiseutilization; second: projectworkingcapital/capex absorbs cash; third: competitors'newcapacity orpermittingdelays changepricing. https://www.prysmian.com/en/media/press-releases/prysmian-raises-guidance-after-its-best-quarter-yet . Chains are hypotheses, notreported forecasts. Validity requires distinguishingproducerpowerfromstocktiming; soundness limitedbydatedissuerdataandunknowncontractremedies. Bindingconstraint: acceptedcashafterfunding andindependentpayoffvalidation. No newfund: thesephysicalconstraints fitSupply,majorcryptoprice-onlysignals fitexistingCrypto.

Data throughSep4 retrievedSep8 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . ATIclose210.675 belowSMA20 215.935 butaboveSMA50 202.3848,belowprior20high231.705;ADR20 6.47825. IREN44.67 aboveSMA20 41.13175/SMA50 40.2259 butbelowprior20high44.93;ADR2.869. CombinedbreakoutANDtrend signalsbothfalse. Frozen5%ATIstopwouldrisk10.53375 perwhole share >8.5099 equityriskbudget;8%target16.854 =2.602ADR, beyondpreferredone-to-twoADRbasehit. IREN5%2.2335,8%3.5736=1.246ADR; plausible distance alone cannotrescuefailedtest826. HWM snapshot259.275 exceeds212.7475whole-sharecap https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots . Do not tightenstops orchoosefractionalshares solelytoforceexposure. Allquotesstaleclosedmarket,feed-specificvolume notconsolidateddepth. No liveholdings, hence no R, targetprogress, holdingage or gainmanagementadjustments. Factsendatmeasureddistances; theseare notorderlevels.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","original":981,"used":981,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":0,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":0,"drawdown_pct":0,"n":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":null,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[]},"stress":{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":0,"drawdown_pct":0,"n":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":null,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[]},"development":[{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":731,"return_pct":12.354106480813861,"drawdown_pct":18.958802229154703,"n":7,"win_rate_pct":57.14285714285714,"avg_win_pct":6.722787925222116,"avg_loss_pct":4.4958239971071965,"expectancy_pct":1.9148113870809824,"quarterKelly":0.07120600145280197,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":731,"return_pct":9.251812848330609,"drawdown_pct":19.86067904470271,"n":7,"win_rate_pct":57.14285714285714,"avg_win_pct":6.295749569118383,"avg_loss_pct":4.87807734119063,"expectancy_pct":1.5069666075573778,"quarterKelly":0.05984063497972028,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":731,"return_pct":-7.551979603918007,"drawdown_pct":27.944759371133053,"n":9,"win_rate_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":3.3456954695089633,"avg_loss_pct":8.498617996447116,"expectancy_pct":-0.602409019143063,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":731,"return_pct":-10.820928385203697,"drawdown_pct":29.314390202814756,"n":9,"win_rate_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":2.932138560777662,"avg_loss_pct":8.864892075126203,"expectancy_pct":-1.000204984523627,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":731,"return_pct":17.72103240140006,"drawdown_pct":19.67763876009365,"n":14,"win_rate_pct":71.42857142857143,"avg_win_pct":4.983218153428407,"avg_loss_pct":7.424450305951701,"expectancy_pct":1.4381700221769471,"quarterKelly":0.07215066538816389,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"XRP","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":731,"return_pct":11.309816241609006,"drawdown_pct":19.998287868783205,"n":14,"win_rate_pct":71.42857142857143,"avg_win_pct":4.563124208422869,"avg_loss_pct":7.795012492042268,"expectancy_pct":1.0322280082899733,"quarterKelly":0.05655270167666207,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","original":1346,"used":1346,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":0,"start":"2023-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":-3.7269998421603847,"drawdown_pct":15.014392051250436,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":3.736317341765781,"expectancy_pct":-3.736317341765781,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.03736317341765781]},"stress":{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":-4.1113243467560645,"drawdown_pct":15.18385487866568,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":4.121602657622946,"expectancy_pct":-4.121602657622946,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.041216026576229456]},"development":[{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":68.68235798359886,"drawdown_pct":19.227045258794895,"n":10,"win_rate_pct":70,"avg_win_pct":11.186063155643462,"avg_loss_pct":6.39695662148,"expectancy_pct":5.911157222506422,"quarterKelly":0.1321098660953875,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":62.06820002997271,"drawdown_pct":19.549493149322316,"n":10,"win_rate_pct":70,"avg_win_pct":10.741207280204138,"avg_loss_pct":6.771620591046863,"expectancy_pct":5.487358918828838,"quarterKelly":0.1277174617266242,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":11.674166644725064,"drawdown_pct":44.90234371454016,"n":18,"win_rate_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":7.2196320376443675,"avg_loss_pct":10.504694227864347,"expectancy_pct":1.3115232824747967,"quarterKelly":0.04541517059443938,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":3.9162299048358364,"drawdown_pct":46.42368649063467,"n":18,"win_rate_pct":61.111111111111114,"avg_win_pct":7.424479831899912,"avg_loss_pct":9.337102132077463,"expectancy_pct":0.9060868459087107,"quarterKelly":0.03051011203558099,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":100.18008225231334,"drawdown_pct":37.522369664198216,"n":26,"win_rate_pct":65.38461538461539,"avg_win_pct":9.837377614385993,"avg_loss_pct":8.088577042023953,"expectancy_pct":3.632239464090243,"quarterKelly":0.09230710679385035,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"UNI","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":80.40727286162539,"drawdown_pct":38.2676239886514,"n":26,"win_rate_pct":61.53846153846154,"avg_win_pct":9.996647022315512,"avg_loss_pct":7.629034710001122,"expectancy_pct":3.2175386637321917,"quarterKelly":0.0804654464779461,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","original":1346,"used":1346,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":0,"start":"2023-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":1.288059858720735,"drawdown_pct":1.6822768709587543,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":1.291280008367539,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":1.291280008367539,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[0.01291280008367539]},"stress":{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":0.8837150957774611,"drawdown_pct":1.7971713396190747,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":0.8859243835168975,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":0.8859243835168975,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[0.008859243835168975]},"development":[{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":8.37544267816178,"drawdown_pct":15.651375456176709,"n":9,"win_rate_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":3.0250812167113517,"avg_loss_pct":3.1167015752632947,"expectancy_pct":0.9778202860531361,"quarterKelly":0.08080942427689189,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":4.543302522577778,"drawdown_pct":17.155742923875895,"n":9,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":3.2083960480844,"avg_loss_pct":2.719634057482361,"expectancy_pct":0.5737160011658398,"quarterKelly":0.044704269093304536,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":-25.55480913027796,"drawdown_pct":32.81796500467674,"n":16,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":2.891275227885527,"avg_loss_pct":6.1849264138601505,"expectancy_pct":-1.6468255929873117,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":-30.170058139462665,"drawdown_pct":36.476772098221566,"n":16,"win_rate_pct":37.5,"avg_win_pct":3.3705180566383213,"avg_loss_pct":5.287034383174551,"expectancy_pct":-2.040452218244724,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":-14.583330670432623,"drawdown_pct":38.110243420573696,"n":28,"win_rate_pct":53.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":4.8198189096930415,"avg_loss_pct":6.292205420886951,"expectancy_pct":-0.33933524379052615,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LINK","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":-23.633754354394068,"drawdown_pct":42.07003730495627,"n":28,"win_rate_pct":46.42857142857143,"avg_win_pct":5.101213328430359,"avg_loss_pct":5.798990177757427,"expectancy_pct":-0.7381814070273841,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","original":1346,"used":1346,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":0,"start":"2023-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":0.4534949955217962,"drawdown_pct":2.4539472552637887,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":0.45462873301059475,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":0.45462873301059475,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[0.004546287330105947]},"stress":{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":0.0524818388136373,"drawdown_pct":2.648455835014052,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":0.052613043410664403,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":0.052613043410664403,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[0.0005261304341066441]},"development":[{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":21.157526594018726,"drawdown_pct":1.1854302353630275,"n":2,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":10.112081780355272,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":10.112081780355272,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":20.192128937302694,"drawdown_pct":1.1854302353630386,"n":2,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":9.671513268551918,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":9.671513268551918,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":119.56380102932307,"drawdown_pct":10.621080965301333,"n":12,"win_rate_pct":91.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":7.757543325788864,"avg_loss_pct":1.9436627668123072,"expectancy_pct":6.949109484738766,"quarterKelly":0.22394684737491014,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":109.27363365104696,"drawdown_pct":10.977884105568991,"n":12,"win_rate_pct":91.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":7.326374197235426,"avg_loss_pct":2.3361044097840464,"expectancy_pct":6.5211676466504676,"quarterKelly":0.22252370241719302,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":121.48094268685348,"drawdown_pct":13.114842223628841,"n":20,"win_rate_pct":80,"avg_win_pct":5.939159212382128,"avg_loss_pct":2.7245361919876707,"expectancy_pct":4.2064201315081675,"quarterKelly":0.17706294700512928,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"LTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":104.45260773004388,"drawdown_pct":13.461690199326847,"n":20,"win_rate_pct":80,"avg_win_pct":5.51524912397914,"avg_loss_pct":3.113860566443936,"expectancy_pct":3.789427185894524,"quarterKelly":0.1717704450293503,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","original":928,"used":743,"duplicates":0,"removed":185,"missing":0,"start":"2024-08-26 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":-0.06884021054507684,"drawdown_pct":3.163371863274589,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":0.06901231107143345,"expectancy_pct":-0.06901231107143345,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.0006901231107143345]},"stress":{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":-0.4677681905269128,"drawdown_pct":3.356465837625011,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":0.4689376110032247,"expectancy_pct":-0.4689376110032247,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.004689376110032247]},"development":[{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":493,"return_pct":-16.56023922910641,"drawdown_pct":26.77193450105141,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":4.32345885040858,"avg_loss_pct":5.373872335197234,"expectancy_pct":-3.4344060980760704,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":493,"return_pct":-18.21246427963003,"drawdown_pct":27.934265144272487,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":3.9059986829613482,"avg_loss_pct":5.752620485799693,"expectancy_pct":-3.8208966520474847,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":493,"return_pct":-10.646139839658462,"drawdown_pct":30.89345361701946,"n":7,"win_rate_pct":42.857142857142854,"avg_win_pct":7.298595374409188,"avg_loss_pct":7.67243356401007,"expectancy_pct":-1.2562783046875314,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":493,"return_pct":-13.1133563936041,"drawdown_pct":31.717779896091336,"n":7,"win_rate_pct":42.857142857142854,"avg_win_pct":6.869258378891602,"avg_loss_pct":8.042005794010722,"expectancy_pct":-1.6514640056240113,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":493,"return_pct":-3.7170615403098237,"drawdown_pct":29.39994259204117,"n":12,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":5.7908568296172405,"avg_loss_pct":5.949790397262921,"expectancy_pct":-0.0794667838228408,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":493,"return_pct":-8.229497323338327,"drawdown_pct":31.34933381066175,"n":12,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":5.367538768466889,"avg_loss_pct":6.326239466881852,"expectancy_pct":-0.4793503492074817,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","original":1346,"used":1346,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":0,"start":"2023-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":-5.668803940485122,"drawdown_pct":5.706008190932533,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":5.682975950336337,"expectancy_pct":-5.682975950336337,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.056829759503363365]},"stress":{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":-6.045376708904642,"drawdown_pct":6.045376708904637,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":6.060490150676907,"expectancy_pct":-6.060490150676907,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.06060490150676907]},"development":[{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":7.778148110901021,"drawdown_pct":13.205509432428252,"n":9,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":2.6455134860498766,"avg_loss_pct":1.3468442844319333,"expectancy_pct":0.8711322547246276,"quarterKelly":0.0823216607397975,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":3.967128205803292,"drawdown_pct":13.205509432428252,"n":9,"win_rate_pct":44.44444444444444,"avg_win_pct":2.7949041910807297,"avg_loss_pct":1.394506384277699,"expectancy_pct":0.46745387143715816,"quarterKelly":0.04181304970389732,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":12.482931104930849,"drawdown_pct":25.167666862908934,"n":18,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":5.62953403741281,"avg_loss_pct":3.93125422818865,"expectancy_pct":0.8491399046120797,"quarterKelly":0.037709155809737466,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":4.668809987685181,"drawdown_pct":26.697234721016027,"n":18,"win_rate_pct":44.44444444444444,"avg_win_pct":5.896831808078554,"avg_loss_pct":3.9154766787423307,"expectancy_pct":0.44554931540028475,"quarterKelly":0.01888935151541417,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":15.07732161020298,"drawdown_pct":21.327887674537173,"n":26,"win_rate_pct":53.84615384615385,"avg_win_pct":4.331142834544777,"avg_loss_pct":3.573677816800848,"expectancy_pct":0.6827640723852583,"quarterKelly":0.039410156768532156,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":3.710546655432809,"drawdown_pct":25.61245694458979,"n":26,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":4.23877250202361,"avg_loss_pct":3.679097181741675,"expectancy_pct":0.27983766014096817,"quarterKelly":0.016504640199926493,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Frozen note875. Long only priorclose>SMA100 andWilder-styleEWMA RSI2<10; exitRSI2>70or10bars;nextadjacentopen; eachwindowstartsflat. PandasEWMAalpha.5 adjustfalse;100barwarmup. Vectorbt25bpfee/side+10bpbaseline/30bpstressslippage. Development2023–25 afterlast>3daygap; holdout2026Jan1–Sep7,alreadyseenmarket chronologicalvalidation,notpristineprospective. {"quality":{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","original":1346,"used":1346,"duplicates":0,"removed":0,"missing":0,"start":"2023-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00"},"holdout":{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":250,"return_pct":-18.925773395221675,"drawdown_pct":19.282984832804328,"n":2,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":9.515207889532338,"expectancy_pct":-9.515207889532338,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.0030694778471695057,-0.18723467994347723]},"stress":{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":250,"return_pct":-19.571782525521822,"drawdown_pct":19.766159942700277,"n":2,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":9.877423712974794,"expectancy_pct":-9.877423712974794,"quarterKelly":null,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.007059232395946916,-0.19048924186354896]},"development":[{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":9.943883750082387,"drawdown_pct":11.973383147811045,"n":11,"win_rate_pct":63.63636363636363,"avg_win_pct":4.1397122479044635,"avg_loss_pct":4.506494638110102,"expectancy_pct":0.9956370166264404,"quarterKelly":0.06012718741081792,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":5,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":5.211214594212361,"drawdown_pct":12.860651516343314,"n":11,"win_rate_pct":63.63636363636363,"avg_win_pct":3.722985602024669,"avg_loss_pct":4.888705384696735,"expectancy_pct":0.5914616068532491,"quarterKelly":0.03971688787431753,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":1.5463519599201936,"drawdown_pct":27.143943885044752,"n":28,"win_rate_pct":57.14285714285714,"avg_win_pct":2.942733609943835,"avg_loss_pct":3.5881490478124363,"expectancy_pct":0.1437838994768614,"quarterKelly":0.012215164413030721,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":10,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":-9.213111222283315,"drawdown_pct":31.386768133653618,"n":28,"win_rate_pct":53.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":2.7250063261354738,"avg_loss_pct":3.697756906181248,"expectancy_pct":-0.2569908888687183,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.001,"bars":1096,"return_pct":5.646454927796676,"drawdown_pct":24.035884759065816,"n":37,"win_rate_pct":59.45945945945946,"avg_win_pct":2.855014496034689,"avg_loss_pct":3.6216955413662113,"expectancy_pct":0.22932123762891815,"quarterKelly":0.020080566836650188,"open_trades":0},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","window":"development","threshold":15,"slippage":0.003,"bars":1096,"return_pct":-8.887268520922516,"drawdown_pct":29.595250064521895,"n":37,"win_rate_pct":56.75675675675676,"avg_win_pct":2.5779852524101097,"avg_loss_pct":3.780881623280459,"expectancy_pct":-0.17179501815878523,"quarterKelly":0,"open_trades":0}]} Premises1 N0–2cannotestimatebothwins/losses;2 dailygatefailsirrespectiveofhourlyoutcome;3 actual15minstop/target/profitmanagementuntested. Conclusionzeroallocation; do notoptimizetargetstorescueit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Reproduce test_rule.py /results_1Day.json; usesclosevaluation/openexecution,doesnotclaimintrabarstopexecution.

Premises1 IBITissuerreadSep8shares1,384,960,000andassets62.524bnstillasofSep4; Sep7benchmarkisadifferentdatedfield.2 CircleUSDC74.33bnasofSep3 isalevel;7/30dayissuance/redemptionfieldsblankinrenderingnotzero.3 Noneisfreshnetcryptobuyflow. Conclusionretainbaselineswithoutbullishflowclaim. Newsharecountsnormalizedforcorporateactionsorissuerdatednetmintseriescouldchangeassessment; priceedgewouldremainseparategate. Counterexample realovernightstablecoinmintingcouldhappenwithoutpageupdate; absenceofevidenceisnotoutflow. Sources https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf ; https://www.circle.com/use-case/treasury-management ; https://www.circle.com/transparency . Existingmonitor44coverspostholidayissuer/macroreview; no duplicatecatalyst.

Aug27issuerFY26report Q4AI70.5m/mining66.7m,total137.2m: AI51.385%ofQ4revenue vs23.204%Q3; mining fell40.018%QoQ,total fell5.249%,adjEBITDAmargin13.994%versus41.091%. OperatingARR1bn vscontracted4bn2026capacity; ARRnotGAAPandacceptancematters. New2.4bnGPUfinancing9%implies216m/year simplefull-balanceinterestbeforeamortization/fees; hypotheticalratebridge,notactualexpense. Premises1 miningbeingdecommissioned;2 AIrequirescustomeracceptanceandcapital;3 Sep4+7.30%IEXmove notattributedtocryptocatalyst. ConclusionrejectIRENasstraightBTCproxy; betterresearchedthroughAIinfrastructurefundamentalmandate, noFUNDproposalwithouttestededge. Counterexample risingBTCcouldstillhelpremainingmining, butdoesnotvalidateequitypayoff. Source https://iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/1cb9f4da-d4c7-4510-8bda-e475022b59f5 pp1–4; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots .

Premises:1 PLAY June15 Q1 actuals https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000152576926000026/play-20260505.htm show OCF113.8m lesscapex105.3m =8.5m, versus adjustedFCF25.3m after16.8msaleleasebackfinancing.66.40%adjustedfigurecomesfromassetfinancing; lowercapexvs154.6mpriorhelpscashwhilecomps-5.4% andentertainmentrevenue-5.865%.2 June15issuerrelease https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results EBITDAmargin22.031%vs23.974%,creditEBITDA/interest~3.00x,19.6mcash vs1535.3mdebt; liquidity499.1mincludesrevolver.3 Aug4CEOchange toHarper https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000152576926000032/play-20260803.htm doesnotverifyQ2turnaround.4 EGTXAug21 https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-interim-report-q2-2026/ confirmsSep28PDUFA but Q2totalcashflow230.2mSEKwith350mgrossraise; subtractinggrossraise=-119.8misroughfinancingbridge,NOTauditedoperatingburn. Revenue17.4mvs14.5m=20%reported/+23%CER; USexpandedaccesspatientsnotcommercialrevenue. CONCLUSION nofundamentalbuyfromheadlinecashorFDAdate. Validity: factsundercutcashqualityclaim,notprovefutureloss. Countercase: lowercapex,foodgrowth+6.464%,USapproval/PRVcouldimprovereturns; needpersistentsame-storecashandactualapprovaleconomics. No intrinsicvalueorapprovalprobabilityestimated; approximateequitymultiplesusingstalesharesdiscarded.

Premises:1 Large observed ranges may reflect completed news rather than unpriced future uncertainty.2 Operating growth does not determine option fair value without future return distribution and ask-to-bid costs.3 Cross-market fund NAV uses valuation timing distinct from local closes. IOT Sep3 issuer quarter endedAug1: revenue508.437m,ARR2124.7m +30%;GAAP operating4.875m versusadjusted106m,FCF64.7m versusSBC96.385m. Calculate GAAP operating margin0.959%;SBC/revenue18.96%. Underlying Sep4 IEX range14.43% follows released results; raising diffusion forecast from this gap risks treating completed catalyst as recurrent. SNDK Aug5 issuer:Q4revenue8965m,+51%q/q mostlypricing;84.6%GM;FCF7083m vs adjusted5035m after110mJV and1938mcustomerpayment deductions. Gross cash should not be capitalized as recurring without adjustments. Sep4IEXclose1739.915/FYGAAPEPS73.76 gives23.59x trailing reportedEPS, not prospective fairvalue; high cyclicalmargins maynormalize. EWJ issuerSep4NAV98.07,close98.28,premium0.22%,PE19.26; systematicfairvaluation means Japan/NYclock mismatch not parity. Strong countercase: durable customer adoption or contracted memorypayments could sustain growth and futurevol; that is a hypothesis, not known optionedge. Soundness based on original issuer documents, economically interested sources; no independent customer validation obtained. Facts end at historical figures; distributions/cash durability are assumptions. These checks constrain model interpretation, do not justify stock purchases outside mispricing mandate. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642896/000162828026060438/samsaraepr-q22027.htm ; https://investor.sandisk.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sandisk-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-2026-financial-results ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf .