Stats

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"base","period":"train","return_pct":-2.351343063306033,"drawdown_pct":47.64123339705238,"n":222,"win_pct":52.702702702702695,"avgwin_pct":1.7354252393032972,"avgloss_pct":1.9023278138156476,"mean_pct":0.014866362828120516,"quarterKelly":0.0021416023132878603,"reconciliation_usd":5.4569682106375694e-12,"skipped_overlap":9,"daytrades":34}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"stress","period":"recent","return_pct":-15.51884893830584,"drawdown_pct":32.414562498344324,"n":28,"win_pct":53.57142857142857,"avgwin_pct":2.022790690936683,"avgloss_pct":3.5103209980660695,"mean_pct":-0.5461540218145948,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":5,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"stress","period":"holdout","return_pct":-25.984928470010615,"drawdown_pct":53.18048154084121,"n":192,"win_pct":48.4375,"avgwin_pct":2.5440826608630376,"avgloss_pct":2.5773114248441544,"mean_pct":-0.09663616457973317,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":5.4569682106375694e-12,"skipped_overlap":37,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"stress","period":"train","return_pct":3.4249354802157628,"drawdown_pct":54.6296543356668,"n":198,"win_pct":46.464646464646464,"avgwin_pct":2.5689925239825833,"avgloss_pct":2.094367644776468,"mean_pct":0.07244617101056595,"quarterKelly":0.0070500566208592935,"reconciliation_usd":5.4569682106375694e-12,"skipped_overlap":35,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"base","period":"recent","return_pct":-8.115845616070306,"drawdown_pct":29.091336289654734,"n":28,"win_pct":53.57142857142857,"avgwin_pct":2.3293191622449383,"avgloss_pct":3.2204168148812924,"mean_pct":-0.24734396999224034,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":5,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"base","period":"holdout","return_pct":31.666176019651537,"drawdown_pct":40.308013308002074,"n":192,"win_pct":51.041666666666664,"avgwin_pct":2.715957132854908,"avgloss_pct":2.4158202250728835,"mean_pct":0.20352446803609334,"quarterKelly":0.01873413847130169,"reconciliation_usd":7.275957614183426e-12,"skipped_overlap":37,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"intraday","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"base","period":"train","return_pct":87.32538434780786,"drawdown_pct":37.86009014691455,"n":198,"win_pct":52.52525252525253,"avgwin_pct":2.563886030968309,"avgloss_pct":2.050717172509798,"mean_pct":0.3731148131554702,"quarterKelly":0.0363817666472635,"reconciliation_usd":7.275957614183426e-12,"skipped_overlap":35,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"stress","period":"recent","return_pct":-29.53209281167666,"drawdown_pct":34.70803954035231,"n":30,"win_pct":40,"avgwin_pct":1.4424332954039907,"avgloss_pct":2.8277463993232512,"mean_pct":-1.1196745214323545,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":2,"daytrades":3}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"stress","period":"holdout","return_pct":-71.2688559611813,"drawdown_pct":72.43363203647814,"n":216,"win_pct":46.2962962962963,"avgwin_pct":1.4554054408074064,"avgloss_pct":2.2834580153434705,"mean_pct":-0.5525027115699164,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":13,"daytrades":22}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"stress","period":"train","return_pct":-51.03150371008547,"drawdown_pct":58.87860903093265,"n":207,"win_pct":48.792270531400966,"avgwin_pct":1.5377661837855563,"avgloss_pct":2.084472033867475,"mean_pct":-0.3170997634184112,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":14,"daytrades":34}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"base","period":"recent","return_pct":-22.895815984073188,"drawdown_pct":31.403482152596617,"n":30,"win_pct":40,"avgwin_pct":1.7472180772477492,"avgloss_pct":2.535791414088366,"mean_pct":-0.8225876175539196,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":2,"daytrades":3}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"base","period":"holdout","return_pct":-45.07421960433745,"drawdown_pct":48.48517810909432,"n":216,"win_pct":48.148148148148145,"avgwin_pct":1.7006008147144807,"avgloss_pct":2.068430530098789,"mean_pct":-0.2537117344479556,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":13,"daytrades":22}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":true,"cost":"base","period":"train","return_pct":-8.879915614136602,"drawdown_pct":39.823020909845766,"n":207,"win_pct":53.14009661835749,"avgwin_pct":1.7047714807843874,"avgloss_pct":1.9708080068552891,"mean_pct":-0.01760151583903589,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":4.547473508864641e-12,"skipped_overlap":14,"daytrades":34}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. PriorATR14 stop1ATR/target1.5ATR,half+1R thenbreakeven. Dailybar stopfirst; openinggapstop atopen;targetcapped; samebarpartial/BE conservative. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"stress","period":"recent","return_pct":-17.918379012512087,"drawdown_pct":27.12353817405484,"n":28,"win_pct":42.857142857142854,"avgwin_pct":2.191219379083653,"avgloss_pct":2.7842271167578376,"mean_pct":-0.6518929042543415,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":1.8189894035458565e-12,"skipped_overlap":5,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"stress","period":"holdout","return_pct":-20.39311338117049,"drawdown_pct":42.78748157831549,"n":192,"win_pct":44.79166666666667,"avgwin_pct":2.7435952554610212,"avgloss_pct":2.33904310821243,"mean_pct":-0.06244467448369666,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":5.4569682106375694e-12,"skipped_overlap":39,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"stress","period":"train","return_pct":-28.284508150767884,"drawdown_pct":59.872464584277616,"n":191,"win_pct":46.07329842931937,"avgwin_pct":2.461880667607956,"avgloss_pct":2.327642186371886,"mean_pct":-0.1209510285172991,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":7.275957614183426e-12,"skipped_overlap":35,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"base","period":"recent","return_pct":-10.72564423998158,"drawdown_pct":24.452185017037387,"n":28,"win_pct":46.42857142857143,"avgwin_pct":2.3186387007388305,"avgloss_pct":2.669167893056532,"mean_pct":-0.35340054593725667,"quarterKelly":0,"reconciliation_usd":3.637978807091713e-12,"skipped_overlap":5,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"base","period":"holdout","return_pct":41.61351369746931,"drawdown_pct":24.575618434527424,"n":192,"win_pct":47.91666666666667,"avgwin_pct":2.8651786412410325,"avgloss_pct":2.179352471289304,"mean_pct":0.2378186867981489,"quarterKelly":0.020750773038634998,"reconciliation_usd":7.275957614183426e-12,"skipped_overlap":39,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Frozen notes920/924; original protocolanalysis926. {"signal":"total","lookback":5,"horizon":5,"managed":false,"cost":"base","period":"train","return_pct":27.19327650733161,"drawdown_pct":40.721617175904576,"n":191,"win_pct":49.73821989528796,"avgwin_pct":2.576847049542439,"avgloss_pct":2.19359779879941,"mean_pct":0.17913654985229488,"quarterKelly":0.01737943176372299,"reconciliation_usd":5.4569682106375694e-12,"skipped_overlap":35,"daytrades":0}. Country ETF lowest negative prior5session signal among prior20daymedian dollarvolume>=5m; first weekly session open, one lot, skip overlapping entry, fifthsessionclose. Signal prior close. Parent has time exit only, not venue-ready stop/target strategy. Perfill zero or base5bpfee+5bpslip,stress5+20. Cash ledger reconciled to vectorbt events. Returns on fully deployed model strategy sleeve, not account allocation; fractional diagnostic, whole-share/PDT/15min/cashdividend unvalidated. Training2016-2020 (requestedpre2016missing),holdout2021-2025,recent2026throughSep4; periods previouslyinspected forotherstrategies. Recentpositivecannotrescuefailedtraining/coststress. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposal based on this individual cell.

Premises1 Sep7completedcloses BTC79096.805,ETH2490.4615,SOL103.8095 aboveSMA20 77975.582/2448.372/99.859 andSMA10066525.035/1925.063/79.152;30dayreturns+21.884/+29.971/+36.685%,7day+.674/+.933/+.741%.2 Mean14daily(high-low)/open3.014/3.751/5.787%; ATR142377.906/92.353/5.931.3 Freshsnapshotcollected~04:05quotes timestamps04:04:41/04:04:28/04:02:33;25bptakerfee/side+displayedspreadroundtrip.5267/.5123/.5476%; BTCaskdisplay78.72USD andETH82.30 below212.75cap,so extraimpactnotguaranteedzero. Conclusion multidaytrendremainspositivebutneithertrendnorrepairheadline suppliesvalidatedentry. CurrentdescriptivecostisgreaterthanBTC'sobserved+.265%fourhourpostreturnmove; thiscomparisonisnotahistoricalnetbacktestbecausequotesaredifferenttimes. PriorrecordedhourlyRSI2pullback familyallsevenholdoutsloss41.8–51.8%; retainsdisabledstatus, no retuning. No stop/target inferredfromroundnumber;1–2ADRsroughly3–6%BTCisrangecontextonly,notpromisedmoveorindependentlycalibratedexit. Counterexampletrendreaccelerationcouldpay; needindependententryandactual15minexitmodel. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observations12407–12409,12418–12420.

Premises1 verifiedtimestamp-complete preincidentJune-Aug BTC hourlylogreturn data,2206returns;2 empiricalmovingblock bootstrap samples2contiguous24hblocks from2183overlappingblocks into20000 48hpaths,seed20260908;3 charge25bpfees eachside,omitspread/impact so netpathsoptimistic. Terminal1/5/50/95/99percentiles−7.3666/−5.1632/−.3336/+5.0629/+9.1826%; fractionpositive.4455is unconditionalpathprobability NOT trade winrate or eventedge. 95th adverseexcursion6.3012% implies13.4056USD at212.7475positioncap,exceeding8.5099plannedrisk. Risk-onlynotional135.0529USD wouldmatchthatquantile, NOT hardmaximumloss; tailand15minexitgapsunboundedbyquantile. No stoporprofitpolicy simulated and no calibratedeventpayoff; approvednotionalzero andnoKellycomputedfromunconditionalpaths. Validity positioncapalone doesnotensure1%equityrisk. Soundness limitedsinglehistoricalregime andfiniteempiricaltails; counterexamplefuturevolatilitylower,butnewcrashcouldexceedallresampledblocks. No optimizedstops/targets fromthisrun. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observation12417; localanalyze.py.

Premise1 fullpaged BTC/ETH/SOL data contain2380 complete hourlybarsJun1-Sep8 03UTC and615 complete dailybarsJan2025-Sep7 each,no timestamp gaps or duplicates; not independent priceaudit. Premise2 fit OLS BTC hourlylogreturn on intercept,ETH,SOL using2206preincidentJun-Aug returns; betas.462172/.214451,R2.788197, residualSD.208203%. Premise3 using firstcompletedhourlyclose after onchainconfirmation avoids assuming earlierexecution but omits initialpartialhour. Sep7 17–21UTC after3400return:BTC+.264963%,ETH+.517429%,SOL+.229261%; BTC residual−.008605log%,49.52th percentile of2203overlappingpreincident4hplacebos,central95%[-.843701,+.873483]log%. Patchconfirmation10–14UTC residual−.294746log%,15.89thpercentile. Restartpost nextcompletewindowSep8 02–03BTC−.628379%,residual−.072127log%,29.87thpercentile. Allsixmeasuredwindows inside correspondingcentral95%placebodistribution. Conclusion no distinct eventedge identified; NOT proof incident haszeroeffect. Validity strongest directionalclaim fails identification: oneincident,correlatedwindows,controls may share spillover,macroconfounding,confirmationnotfirstnews. Soundness applies fetchedbars andpreperiodfit; placebo distributionisnotconfidenceintervalfortreatmenteffect. No strategy tested or ordersimulated here; do not call sixwindows sixindependenttrades or use regressionR2aswinprobability. Need separately preregistered incidentcohort with daily/hourlycostedholdout andactual15minexits before risk. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://blockstream.info/api/tx/a6d697a25266ce3c78774fd1d75f896b7af522ada209b0f6228ea497bc49a46d ; https://x.com/Blockstream/status/2097127976672342487 . Rawdata/code research/market.py,analyze.py,analysis.json. Observations12401–12416.

Factsanchored https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-therapeutics-to-participate-in-upcoming-investor-conferences-in-september/ ; vouchertermsobs12330 https://attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com/aa8bae6e3da62b95404c23eb6ec2cc25a . Conditionalbull:1FDAauthorizationopenspaidUSaccess/possiblevoucher;2 payercoverage/distributionandmonetizationconvertopportunitytocash;3 reducedfutureequityneedmaybenefitcommonholders. Conditionalbear:1delay/CRLpushescashreceiptsout;2 preparatoryspendcontinuesorcutsslowlaunch;3 refinancing/dilutioncantransferupsideawayfromexistingholders. Whobenefits: patientsfromeffectivecare,distributionpartnersfrompaidvolume,RTTsellersfromcontractualvouchershare,investorsfromresidualcash; noneguaranteed. Eventstructure: publicabstractsalreadyprecedepresentations,soSep8posterisnotcleanfirstreadout; firsttworegulatorybranchescanoccurbeforeSep28deadline. Thirdorderpossibilitydoesnotassignstockprobability. Countercaseapprovalandprofitablelaunchcouldoutweighallfrictions; needobservedprice/netpayoffevidence,notnarrativeordering.

Derivedfromobs12330 https://attachment.news.eu.nasdaq.com/aa8bae6e3da62b95404c23eb6ec2cc25a andstaleSep4price https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/EGTX.ST . CashdividedbyQ2operating+investingburn gives11.75months fromJun30; includingQ2debt/leaserate10.78months, notmanagementrunwayguidance. Samecostquarterimplies273.1MSEK afterQ3; actualcosts/receivables/discounts/launchmaydiffer. Ordinarysharegrowth17.66% year-to-Jun30; raise fee5.4%; ordinaryequity3.580bnSEK/~51.44xannualizedQ2sales69.6MSEK, neitherEVnorforwardrevenuevaluation. NoSEKUSDconversionimputed. Assumedvoucher netsales100/150/200MUSD yields50/75/100 retainedbeforeunmodeledtax/timing; thisiscontingentscenario,notsalequote. Premises: positivecashmostlyfinancing,launchvaluealreadyrequiredbyhighcurrentsalesmultiple,benefitsharesplit. Conclusionnotnear-termcashcrisisatflatburn,notfreevoucherarbitrage; strongestbullfutureUSsales+voucher couldtransformcashbutwecannotpriceapprovalorpre-eventdrift. ConfidentialUSnetprice/payeruptakeandfinalsurvivalpackage gaps preventDCFfalseprecision.

Python numpy seed20260908 followingbacktests; training836dailyOHLCvectors normalizedtopriorclose, iidresample10sessions/100000paths from https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/EGTX.ST . Start7.70,stop7.34429,target8.23357; gapstopopen,stoppriorityifboth,takeprofittarget,otherwisecloseafter10. Fees10bp/slip25bp/side. Mean-1.21410%,win37.666%,p05-5.69831%,p95+6.18361%,stops62.245%,targets37.570%,time.185%. Thesearehistoricalvolatilityresampling,NOTFDAprobabilities; iidpathscanmissclusters/novelbinarytails and15minexecution. SeparateassumedUSDlossstress for49.14fund:30%gap14.742,50%gap24.57, both>8.5099riskcap; attheseassumedshocksriskboundnotionals28.3663/17.0198 BEFOREcosts,notrecommendedsizes. Full-lossbound8.5099. Bindingedgefailssoadoptednotional0 regardlessstresscapacity; noestimatedregulatorywinprobability.