1. Read back original recorded backtests1112/1099/1043; this is an AUDIT, not a new independent backtest. Frozen note968 trains2025,holdsoutJan1–Sep7 2026, nextopen after20day/24hourpriorhigh, optional100day/168hourSMA and5/20day or6/48hourpriorlogvol ratio. ADR14=(H-L)/open, stop1ADR,target1.5ADR,5days/72horizon,half+BEat1R. Vectorbt accounting with exact25bp creditedassetfees plus5bpmajor/30bpXRP-LTC/15bpUNI-LINKslip, doubled stress. 2. Daily0trainingqualifiers; fixedruleN3 return+.011042% is weak sample; portfolioDD.579989% fromanalysis1114, while1099figure4.084055% explicitlyLINKstandaloneDD. HourlyUNItrainingselectedholdout-42.917643%,DD72.215368%,N61,win50.819672%,avgwin5.263210%,avgloss6.760888%,expectancy-.650281%; doubledslipreturn-54.964426%. All30computablebasehourlyholdoutslose,12invalid. SOLselectedtrainingprofit cannot resolve missingMar12exit. CLI1043grossBTC+2.3668% has neither costs nor holdout. 3. Prior actualtrade10 only: BTC81614.8to81548.7,operatorliquidationafter48minutes; not intendedstop/targetoutcome or an estimable strategy win probability. Querytrades confirms no activeholdings. Conclusion keep rejected families disabled; quarterKellyclipped0 and approved0. Small newprice changes cannot turn repeated2026history into untouchedholdout. Counterexample a different primary economic signal might validate prospectively; changing filters after losses is not that signal. Underlying https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; fee https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Originalexperimenthashes/code not present in this new sandbox; numerical claims rely on readback of recorded experiments, not alleged rerun.
original hourly analysis1112
original daily analysis1099
hourly selected return-42.92
hourly selected drawdown72.22
hourly selected win rate50.82
hourly sample61
average win percent5.26
average loss percent6.76
daily training qualifiers0
new independent backtests0
quarter Kelly0
approved size0
08UTC primary evidence: Liquid service unverified and ETF share baselines have not advanced
1. At08:02UTC reserve3597.47198026BTC, recipient598.4998888BTC; indexer tips4051232/4050335 are stale/conflicting. Operator page still says software deployed and coordinated restart in preparation, unchangedhash1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b. Primary https://x.com/Blockstream and chain views https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr . No fresh authorized payout verified; stale explorers do not prove current network outage, and operator is an interested participant. 2. Issuer shares still asofSep4: IBIT1,384,960,000 https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-fund ; ETHA464,560,000 https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf . Newer benchmark date is a different field; absent new shares cannot be labeled zero current flows. 3. OKX08:02forecast/settlementfield BTC.566887/.570130bp,ETH.671572/.679862bp,SOL-.261397/-.253062bp; nextfunding16UTC. CoinOI28094.8992BTC/629313.441ETH/2926143.27SOL. Clockoffset.1145s,uncertainty.2201s,6/6fresh. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest . Spot book receives no perpetual funding; one exchange is not aggregate leverage or an extreme without a comparable reference distribution. Conclusion no primary-flow buy thesis yet; preserve disabled funding rule. Validity: these observations cannot supply missing validated price expectancy. Counterexamples: service could be restored but indexers lag; unreported creations could occur later; either revises evidence, not backtest failures. Facts end at attributed pages/chain balances; new demand or BTCrepricing assumptions unmeasured. Full liabilities/currentkeys/payoutauthorization and fresh issuer flows remain gaps.
reserve BTC3597.47
recipient BTC598.5
IBIT shares Sep41384960000
ETHA shares Sep4464560000
BTC forecast bp0.57
ETH forecast bp0.67
SOL forecast bp-0.26
fresh derivatives endpoints6
fresh authorized payouts verified0
approved size0
MATX training neighbors positive but combined current signal and holdout fail
MATX pre-open levels: no breakout and no affordable whole share
TechnicalrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:09
Sep4completedSIPclose225.59>SMA20 218.9165>SMA50 211.586 butbelowprior20HIGH226.68; combinedsignalfalse. ADR20=5.304275, illustrative1ADRstop220.285725/1.5ADRtarget233.5464125 atlastclose. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MATX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . These arenotstandingorders or livequotes. One225.59share exceeds212.7475positioncap by12.8425; limitatthecap wouldalter thepreregisterednextopenstrategyand requireseparatevalidation. Fractionalpurchase would restrict afterhoursexits and doesnotrepair negativeedge. NominaloneADRrisk5.304275<8.5099equityriskcap doesnotboundgaps. Noopenholdings to calculateR/targetprogress/daysheld; noqueuedorders toadjust.
close225.59
SMA20218.92
SMA50211.59
prior20high226.68
ADR205.3
signal0
reference_stop220.29
reference_target233.55
position_cap212.75
one_share_over_cap12.84
proposed_usd0
MATX conditional bootstrap and quarter-Kelly retain zero sizing
SimulationsrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:09
Numpyseed2026090808;20000 IIDbootstrapmeans from13holdoutcostedtrades give95%meaninterval[-1.70934,1.71237]%. p=.46153846,avgwin.03488118,avgloss.03056249; Kelly p-(1-p)/(win/loss) negative, clampedquarterKelly0. Circularblocklength3,20trades/path,20000paths:10%equityexposure lossprob55.23%,median-.147805%,p95DD2.392424%;25% lossprob55.555%,median-.413686%,p95DD5.919851%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; fixedentryledger analysis1144. These are empiricalconditionalstressillustrations, not calibratedfutureprobabilities;13trades missunseenregimes and extremegaps. Initialcashincluded inpeak. No unconditionalbullishpricepaths usedtooverridefailedrule; no actual15minexitprobabilityverified, so capitalzero. Accounttwohistoricaloperatorwins have no empiricalavgloss and cannotreplace this sample.
sample13
bootstrap_samples20000
CI_low_pct-1.71
CI_high_pct1.71
win_probability0.46
avg_win_pct3.49
avg_loss_pct3.06
quarter_Kelly0
loss_probability_at_10pct0.55
p95_DD_at_10pct2.39
loss_probability_at_25pct0.56
p95_DD_at_25pct5.92
MATX distribution and transport-factor regression do not identify weather alpha
1424 matched daily logreturns2021–Sep4 2026, MATX/SPY/IYT consolidatedSIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Annualvol39.3144%; 1/5/50/95/99percentiles[-6.25904,-3.60672,.118246,3.57557,7.17046]%. CorrelationsMATX/SPY.467525,MATX/IYT.565051. NumpyOLS MATX~constant+SPY+IYT coefficients[.000589068,.199300,.899655],R².322242. Contemporaneousdescriptivefactorfit, not prospectiveexcessreturn or causalweatheridentification; no significanceclaimed forintercept, residualautocorrelation/selection uncontrolled. Sourcecovers selectedcurrentticker and totalreturn-like adjustedprices, not everydelistedshipper. CommercialsourceJulyportmeasurement is lagged and cannotbe regressed as dailySeptemberweatherwithoutinventedobservations. Financialpayoffbootstrap recorded separately; no newedge inferred.
N1424
annual_vol_pct39.31
corr_SPY0.47
corr_IYT0.57
SPY_beta0.2
IYT_beta0.9
R20.32
proposed_usd0
QSEC90808 quarter-Kelly zero and conditional twenty-session paths
1. Fresh Alpaca download has131daily rows/symbol (incompleteSep8 excluded),368hourly rows/symbol Aug24–Sep8 07UTC;14pages total,0missinghours. Zero-volume hours BTC0,ETH2,SOL2,XRP3,UNI17,LTC108,LINK32 mean complete grid is not traded-price continuity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . 2. Frozen note968 definitions preserved: daily prior20high,100SMA,prior5/20logvol; hourly prior24high,168SMA,prior6/48logvol. ADR14 mean((high-low)/open), not close denominator. Sep7daily all7trendpass,3compressionpass,0breakoutpass. New06/07hours each0breakoutpass;07trend5/7,compression2/7(LTC.314325/LINK.467137). BTC07close78450.45<79683.707priorhigh;ETH2478.606<2511.07;SOL102.8735<105.945. 3. Two-hour05to07close returns BTC-.144199%,ETH+.270944%,SOL-.040325%,XRP+.028832%,UNI+.358594%,LTC+.189910%,LINK+.205130%. Not independent trades and no retrospective signal retuning. 4. Frozen ADRBTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846%,XRP5.320752%,UNI10.504742%,LTC4.754124%,LINK5.828883%; these are reference ranges, no proposed stops/targets because edge fails. Conclusion staycash; current signals absent and prior net daily/hourly tests rejected independently. Counterexample a later impulse can break highs; that creates a prospective observation, not permission to revive rejected family. Validity gates are conjunctions, not additive votes. Soundness limited current-universe survivorship, quote-based bars and repeatedly reused historical holdout. Reused prior1112/1099validation, no newly claimed backtest. Observations15054–15064 recordfull figures; scripts refresh.py and rawdata saved.
hourly rows per symbol368
download pages14
missing hours0
daily breakout passes0
new hourly bars2
hourly breakout passes0
hourly trend passes5
hourly compression passes2
LTC zero-volume hours108
BTC twohour pct-0.14
ETH twohour pct0.27
approved size0
Nine overnight quote snapshots show persistent costs and shallow major-pair displayed size
1. Python parses9compact-format scheduled snapshots Sep8 03:00–07:45UTC,90pair observations; all63 nonstable quotes fresh<=300s,all27stablecoin quotes stale. This is a format-selected irregular cohort fromlatest80notes, not a complete tick history. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots . 2. Under25bp taker fee on credited assets eachleg (https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees), unchanged-price liquidation loss L=1-(bid/ask)*.9975^2; break-even proportional quote rise=L/(1-L). Median required rises BTC.533295%,ETH.533470%,SOL.604749%,XRP.916908%,UNI.690296%,LTC1.109501%,LINK.693474%. Previous rt_pct label measures L, not the slightly larger recovery hurdle; distinction does not rescue any rule. 3. BTC/ETH displayed bid and ask notionals below212.7475cap in9/9; SOLbid9/9,ask6/9. Minimum BTCask78.68/bid77.69,ETH81.51/81.90,SOL97.11/97.18USD. Hidden liquidity and replenishment unknown; small displayed size is not a hard market capacity limit, but rules assuming unlimited top-price fills are unsupported. 4. Eight paired irregular logmid intervals correlate BTCETH.89048,BTCSOL.94677,ETHSOL.93054. N8 and asynchronous timestamps preclude reliable population estimates or independent signals. Conclusion maintain execution gate and zero size. Strongest counterexample resting makers may improve fees/spreads, but queue position, fill probability and adverse selection are untested. Valid inference: observations contradict cost-free execution assumption; not proof no possible crypto edge. No backtest returns generated by this descriptive study. Every derived row in observations15066–15076; raw source notes and local quote_study.py preserve provenance.
snapshots9
pair observations90
fresh nonstable quotes63
stale stablecoin quotes27
BTC median breakeven pct0.53
ETH median breakeven pct0.53
SOL median breakeven pct0.6
LTC median breakeven pct1.11
paired intervals8
BTC ETH correlation0.89
BTC both sides below cap9
approved size0
MATX required CLI diagnostic rejects; distinct from costed next-open test