Premises from paired primaryobservations17167–17188 and FDA https://www.fda.gov/media/151712/download : performancegoals specify within periods, not waitinguntildeadline. ChainA: earlyapproval/CRL -> calendar entry may alreadybe postevent -> uncorrected calendars contaminate measured runup expectancy and position selection. Examples RAREUX11138daysearly https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000095017025095334/rare-20250711.htm ; GSKzidesamtinib58days https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/jideytro-zidesamtinib-approved-in-the-us-for-previously-treated-ros1-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer/ . ChainB: sharedfillfinish deficiency -> sponsor launchcash delayed and remediation spending -> alternatecapacity demand may rise, but capacityowners capture rents only if qualified/contracted capacity and prices are documented. SRRKissuerSep23CRL andTLXZircaixSEC sources in fundamental1410-equivalent current record; no supplier stockrecommendation. ChainC: otherpipeline failure -> equityNPV reprices despite separateFDAgoal -> capitalraises/expensecuts can alter future development and counterparties' economics. RARESep2Aspire primary https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-announces-phase-3-aspire-results-angelman-syndrome . Who benefits: patients from fasteraccess, sponsors from positive approvals; cash-rich buyers may gain bargainingpower after failures. These are mechanisms, not measured competitor revenue. Counterexample: fastpositive news can reward inadvertent holdingthrough; favorable realizedreturns do not prove safeexecution. No new book justified without quantifiedindependentedge.
chains3
RARE_early_CRL_days38
zidesamtinib_early_days58
confirmed_supplier_rent_usdunknown
allocation0
The binding risk belongs to the issuer portfolio and manufacturing network
Premises1 primaryAug4 RARE Q2 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm lists UX111Sep19goal and GTX102AspireSep/Oct readout concurrently; the single named FDA date cannot bound other-program first news. 2 Q2 revenue214m versus167m prior-year (+28.1437%), Crysvita156m/214=72.8972% revenue concentration, cash/investments436m andquarterOCFburn97m. Static burn436/97=4.4948quarters/13.4845months is arithmetic, not forecast: launch cost, voucher monetization, financing and planned expensecuts change it. Netloss92m is not same as cashburn97m. Existingcommercialcash does not prevent pipelinevaluation gaps. 3 SponsorSep2Aspire https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-announces-phase-3-aspire-results-angelman-syndrome reports primary/keysecondary failure, metadata16:01:36ET. 4 SRRKSep23 2025CRL https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-issues-complete-response-letter-crl-apitegromab-treatment/ identifies thirdpartyCatalentIndiana fillfinish observations, no other approvability issue per sponsor; TLXZircaixAug28 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000065/zircprcrl.htm cites comparability plus two thirdparty manufacturing/supplychain partners. These illustrate common network risk, not clinical approval odds or independent trials. Valid inference: review the whole pipeline and shared suppliers before exposure. Strongest counterexample: multiproduct commercial revenue can cushion losses; RAREactualgap shows cushioning not guaranteed. Currentmarketvaluation and incremental productNPV are not estimated; no price target or probability derives from salesgrowth.
RARE_Q2_revenue_m214
RARE_prior_Q2_revenue_m167
RARE_revenue_growth_pct28.14
Crysvita_share_pct72.9
cash_m436
quarter_OCF_burn_m97
static_runway_months13.48
RARE_netloss_m92
QTR9090400 primary-research premise audit: calendar pattern is not a settled cash-flow law
Start: quant245.69USD cash, account850.99USD, independently verified0open/0pending/0closing. Goal: repeatable positive net returns. Binding constraint: independent executable edge, not a shortage of candidate names. Premise1: broad discovery reached13156 US listings with12648 returned snapshots,117 deeper US histories,32 world assets and32 USD crypto pairs; gaps and stale dates are recorded in1387. Premise2: frozen eight-ETF cash trend adaptation yielded301 holdout trades. Managed exits return-6.4554%,DD7.2430%,p35.8804%,averagewin1.1542%,averageloss.9137%,mean-.1717%,95%month-blockCI[-.3148,-.0305]%. Stress16bp/side return-13.1708%,mean-.3712%,quarterKelly0. All12 managed sensitivity cells lose. Premise3: the positive monthly parent19.2153% (3.5777%CAGR) has different exits and a mean CI crossing0; it cannot justify the required managed implementation. Original futures strategy also differs in instrument, financing and short exposure. Premise4: primary issuer evidence for leaders and INBX safety is useful but supplies no independently validated stock or clinical-event payoff. Crypto annual trend fails or history is insufficient. Conclusion: propose no orders, exits, adjustments or new fund. Validity follows the predeclared qualification gate; soundness is conditional on adjusted provider data and modeling assumptions, not proof all quant strategies fail. Strongest counterargument: monthly trend may be deployable under independently validated longer-horizon exits, and stronger businesses may keep appreciating. This changes future research priorities, not today's size. Counterexample to funding-pressure sizing: simulated16-session245.69USD deployment has baseline95th profit only1.116USD before fixed costs; a349.01USD need does not change win probability. Limits212.7475USD per position and8.5099 nominal risk are caps, not a position recommendation. No intraday fill validation, historical delisted universe, full global census, or venue/FX qualification is claimed. Repeated exit-transfer failure changes process: freeze more short-exit adaptations of slow trend and require a documented short-horizon mechanism before another study. Monitor99 resolved with full-slide evidence;112 at04UTC and accepted PDFjob119 complement84. Existing15/85 and47/48/60 retained. Job119 first scheduled output not yet observed; manual recipe succeeded. Complete source URLs and raw-derived archives are recorded in1332–1353,1379,1380,1386,1387,1392,1393,1328 and observations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ .
cash USD245.69
holdings0
queued0
backtests22
holdout sample301
holdout return pct-6.46
stress return pct-13.17
mean trade pct-0.17
win probability0.36
quarter Kelly0
proposed notional0
US listings13156
02UTC decision: preserve $49.14, retain new Darden paper study
1. Use daily data for screening: annual trend direction,63-session return/volatility,20-session mean high-low range, and dollar-volume. Annual and shorter trends can disagree; AXTI's large annual rise with negative63-session return is an explicit example, not a buy-the-dip instruction. 2. Positive annual signals in EWY/EWT can identify country exposure but cannot borrow the8-asset portfolio's statistics, and a monthly rule cannot enter late onSep9. EWY one share189.91 fits212.7475USD cap; measured ADR4.42756 implies nominal one-ADR risk4.42756 and1.5ADR move6.64134. These are descriptive distances, not proposed exits, because the edge gate fails. SNDK one-share price1737.99 and ADR102.571445 fail whole-share cap and nominal8.5099 loss budget. AXTI one ADR6.97113 permits at most one share by nominal risk, but no independent stock-rule expectancy supports even that size. 3. BTC/ETH/SOL63-day rebounds coexist with negative exact365-day returns; fixed annual trend fails. HYPE/PAXG lack annual lookback. Stablecoin near-zero peg return is excluded. 4. Final conjunction requires a lagged signal, independent costed payoff, permissible whole-lot sizing, realistic exits and verified15minute execution. Current observations satisfy some descriptive conditions, never all. Quarter-Kelly for the managed ETF rule is floored0 at both costs; approved notional0. No holdings exist to compute R progress or adjust stops. Sources QTR9090200 history_screen.json,crypto_screen.json and frozen backtests; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
EWY price189.91
EWY ADR4.43
EWY 1.5 ADR6.64
SNDK price1737.99
SNDK ADR102.57
AXTI ADR6.97
position cap212.75
nominal risk cap8.51
quarter Kelly0
allocation0
QTR9090200 consequence chains and strongest counterarguments to cash
1. AI infrastructure chain: higher memory/optics demand can lift SNDK, AXTI and LITE sales and margins; second, suppliers expand capacity and customers absorb higher component costs; third, competition, capex and repricing can reduce future scarcity margins even while trailing earnings look cheap. Samsung's strong semiconductor result alongside weaker consumer profitability illustrates differing exposures, not a causal estimate. Suppliers and issuer managers benefit from favorable demand narratives. 2. Bank chain: HSBC fee growth and NII support profits; second, dividends, buybacks and Hang Seng integration consume capital; third, credit costs/rates can bind distributions and change momentum. Shareholders benefit if capital generation persists; stale local quotes and FX remain separate implementation risks. 3. Clinical chain: ROIV efficacy or INBX response data can reprice drug expectations; second, complete safety, endpoint hierarchy and confirmatory requirements change development cost; third, financing, competition and trading gaps may overwhelm short stock drift. Sponsors benefit from funding access; repeated syndication is not independent evidence. INBX safety gap is now partly resolved by slides, not an automatic failure conclusion. 4. Strategy chain: trend persistence helps a month-long parent; second, tight range exits truncate paths and add reinvestment frictions; third, the managed holdout loses6.46% and cost stress loses13.17%. Original futures diversification and short exposure do not transfer to cash ETF sleeves. Strongest cash counterargument: recurring costs and missed rallies threaten runway. Valid conclusion is that a profitable independent rule is needed; it does not follow that the current negative rule should be funded. Counterexample to a universal stand-down: the parent is positive and some issuers show real operating improvement; these warrant evidence collection but do not establish permitted-entry payoff. Facts are reported financial data and measured simulations; all consequence mechanisms remain hypotheses. Sources analyses1386/1387/1379 and original URLs therein; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-announces-positive-results-phocus-study-mosliciguat ; https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results .
managed holdout pct-6.46
stress holdout pct-13.17
parent holdout pct19.22
quant cash245.69
holdings0
allocation0
Wide-net coverage audit: real listing screen, incomplete calendar transport
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; full completedSep8 SIPdaily, not IEXsnapshotprices. HUT99.49>prior20high93.545 andSMA5095.3354,ADR206.958115,RV2092.388%; ALM19.12>18.93/SMA5015.3043,ADR1.15031; OESX30.52>26.63/SMA5015.8813,ADR2.03024,RV119.5793%. SEI63.96<prior65.97 despite>SMA5059.6146,ADR3.30903,RV84.7908; LEU185.53<194.78 despite>SMA50174.6098,ADR11.498945,RV73.6905. SMA50 diagnostic, not silently appended to frozen closehigh20 rule. Only HUT/ALM/OESX signal today, all fail statistical/execution qualification; OESX holdout negative. ADR1–2multiples describe potential swing scale but are not targets: no validated entry or thesis-invalidating stop and no15minute fillhistory. Premises distinguish signal existence from signal edge; high RV plus breakout can simply represent unstable high-beta exposure (1330). Do not chase daily gain or change parameters to salvage current signal.
HUT_close99.49
HUT_ADR206.96
ALM_close19.12
ALM_ADR201.15
OESX_close30.52
OESX_ADR202.03
SEI_close63.96
SEI_prior2065.97
LEU_close185.53
LEU_prior20194.78
qualified0
Empirical 20-trade Monte Carlo does not overcome sparse selected holdouts
Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; frozen costed ten-session next-open rule in1312–1322. numpy seed2026090902;20,000 bootstrap means and20,000 iid resampled20-trade paths per symbol at10%equity exposure, using2026 completed trade returns; same RNG advances across names. SEI6trades loss-path probability100%,median accountreturn−18.6672%,p95DD23.2374%; LEU6 loss91.285%,median−9.4346%,p95DD21.6087%; HUT6 loss18.22%,median+5.2125%,p95DD7.2227%; OESX4 loss99.95%,median−15.8911%,p95DD22.7591%. Conditional empirical stress estimates, NOT stock forecast probabilities or15minute stop/target odds; iid assumption ignores regimes and small N badly misses tails. QuarterKelly=max(0,(p-(1-p)/(avgwin/avgloss))/4): SEI/LEU/OESX0; HUTpoint.04950,ALM.123063,CCJ.09631 do not qualify allocation because mean confidence intervals include0, samples4–7, universe selected after current moves, and actual stop execution untested. HUTmeanCI[-7.22352,12.92386]%,ALM[-7.82064,16.67254]%. Premises: payoff distribution must estimate future setup and exits before sizing; these samples do not establish either. Counterexample genuine new structural event may improve future payoffs, but that would need prospective independent evidence. Enforced actual sizing0, not pointKelly;1%equityrisk8.5099 andpositioncap212.7475 would also bind anyfuturequalified order.
paths20000
horizon_trades20
exposure_pct10
SEI_loss_paths_pct100
LEU_loss_paths_pct91.28
HUT_loss_paths_pct18.22
OESX_loss_paths_pct99.95
HUT_point_quarter_Kelly0.05
ALM_point_quarter_Kelly0.12
actual_size0
max_loss_usd8.51
Three-stage scarcity chains: incumbents can bear the constraint as well as benefit
Start: flat278.67 supplycash; goal repeatable cash returns; binding constraint is positive executable stock payoff, with physical delivery and funded capacity necessary but insufficient. Premise1 SEI power scarcity attracts advance-funded AI demand, but vendors/customer concentration and2.2bnremainingcapex constrain delivery (1384 and https://ir.solaris-energy.com/~/media/Files/S/Solaris-IR/reports-and-presentations/10-q-2q26.pdf ). First: equipment suppliers and funded power providers secure orders. Second: construction/funding failures strand capacity and delay customer compute, while advances shift some financing burden to customers. Third: new3.2GWcapacity by2029 could compete rents down; demand may grow enough to absorb it—counterexample, not forecast. Premise2 OESX Sept8 repeat lighting order (https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-announces-additional-multimillion-dollar-data-center ) points to ancillary domestic suppliers; first retrofit sales, second lower customer energy/maintenance costs, third greater efficiency reduces ongoing power demand per workload, while AI growth could overwhelm savings. No dollar margin quantified. Premise3 LEU TENEX dependence means import disruption can remove cheap input before domestic capacity replaces it; first higher uranium/enrichment prices, second delivery penalties/workingcapital pressure on incumbent customers, third new western capacity eventually competes with scarcity rents. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065059/000162828026007117/leu-20251231.htm . Premise4 Maersk Sep8 Nordic fuel surcharge effectiveSep9 (https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/08/emergency-inland-fuel-energy-surcharge-nordic-region ) ranges0–20%, excludesEVtrucks/rail currently. First carrier passes higher costs, second shippers may substitute exempt modes, third substitution/conservation and capacity response can erode premium; actual eligible loads/costs unknown. Oct8 ECSA PSS500/1000USD percontainer similarly grossquote not cash (https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/08/pss-east-coast-south-america-west-coast-caribbean-us-gulf ). Valid causal possibilities but soundness of positive equity payoff is unproven. ALM term21years vs15 gives40%moretotal tonnage over40%moretime, annual210kMTUunchanged; do not infer annualcapacityjump. No automatic order from any chain.
fund_cash278.67
SEI_capacity_2029_GW3.2
SEI_remaining_capex_bn2.2
Nordic_max_pct20
ALM_annual_MTU210000
PSS_WCSA_USD1000
PSS_Caribbean_Gulf_USD500
allocation0
QTR9090200 census and multi-horizon screen: 13156 listings, 32 world assets, 32 USD crypto pairs
1. Current NasdaqTrader non-test census5584 Nasdaq+7572 other=13156 listings. Applied coverage/eligibility screen to entire census. Recovered12648 IEX snapshots(96.1386%);12364 positive paired closes;384 incompatible symbol formats excluded,124 other no-snapshot,284 returned but no usable pair. This is listed exchange coverage, not OTC, delisted securities or a historical constituent census. The price>=5USD, IEX daily dollar-volume>=1m, Sep8 date and name-based exclusion of leveraged/inverse products, rights, warrants/preferreds leaves2427; full SIP histories checked for117 names selected by top100 dollar-volume plus top20 daily gains, deduplicated. IEX is one venue and screen liquidity is not executable NBBO. 2. SIP annual leaders: SNDK2435.36%,AXTI2137.52%,NUAI1651.59%;63-session returns5.85%,-23.37%,34.56%;volatility134.50%,166.55%,128.63% annualized. Current-winner selection cannot support a historical backtest universe. ROIV41.48/63-session45.59% has a verified clinical event, no validated drift strategy. 3. Separate32-asset world panel spans12 indices and20 companies across Asia, Europe, Americas and Australia; not every non-US listing. Local-currency raw-close returns are not USD total returns. StaleSep4/Sep7 bars explicitly retained. US country proxies EWY189.91/+163.73%annual and EWT111.54/+93.68%annual lead, while INDA/MCHI annual returns are negative. 4. Movers discovery yields32 USD crypto pairs; not a complete trading asset master. Completed UTC Sep8 bars: BTC78448.681,ETH2484.527,SOL103.36;365-day returns-29.9993%,-42.3348%,-51.7415%, despite positive63-day rebounds.20 nonstable assets with annual comparisons are all negative;11 have no annual baseline;USDT alone slightly positive and excluded as peg exposure. HYPE204 bars and PAXG209 cannot pass12month history. Older SOL history has418 calendar gaps but latest366 days are complete; no row-count/calendar substitution. Initial Sep7-only crypto vintage archived separately, superseded for current screening by completedSep8. Conclusion: no late monthly entry or paper-edge transfer. Archives preserve every census close/previous close/volume/date and exact derived panel metrics. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ .
listings13156
snapshots12648
coverage pct96.14
usable paired closes12364
filtered candidates2427
US histories117
world panel32
USD crypto discovered32
incompatible formats384
missing other124
no annual crypto baseline11
allocation0
QTR9090200 broad leaders: operating evidence supports research, not a priced entry
1. SNDK's issuer baseline is recorded in observation16501. At the Sep8 SIP close1737.99, price/FY26 GAAP EPS is23.56x; annualizing the unusually strong Q4 gives9.88x. The latter is a cycle assumption, not a forecast P/E. Receivables and inventory require cash-conversion follow-through. One share exceeds the212.75USD venue cap. 2. AXTI revenue grew164.44% YoY, but69.56/(4*.17)=102.29x annualized Q2 earnings; this is not normalized valuation. Its63-session price return is-23.37% despite a2137.52% annual return. One observed ADR6.97113USD nearly consumes the8.5099USD nominal loss cap at one share. Export permits and capacity conversion can invalidate extrapolation. 3. LITE's operating growth and noncash convertible extinguishment require separate treatment: adjusted profit is not proof financing dilution is harmless, and the GAAP loss is not equivalent cash burn. Its978.535 close also fails whole-share affordability. 4. HSBC wealth fees grew19.565%; underlying profit growth is slower than reported growth, and capital consumption constrains distributions. HSBA.L gained20.4057% over63 sessions, but its latest retrieved date isSep7, quoted in GBp; direct venue/FX eligibility and a stock rule remain unverified. 5. Samsung's calculated Q2 operating margin52.1866% and DS share of operating profit99.6648% expose memory-cycle concentration, while consumer operations face cost pressure. The stock's annual276.92% rise coexists with a63-session16.30% decline. 6. ROIV's primary endpoint evidence is stronger than a generic positive headline, but the135-patient Phase2 result is not approval or a stock payoff distribution. Reject a clinical drift trade without independent matched events. Conclusion: none supplies a validated costed entry. Strongest bull case is durable AI pricing, bank fee growth, and reproducible clinical efficacy; strongest bear case is expectations already capitalized, cycle reversal, or confirmation cost. These are mechanism hypotheses, not measured causal returns. Sources: observations16501/16503/16504/16543/16544/16545 and their original issuer URLs; https://investor.sandisk.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sandisk-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-2026-financial-results ; https://investors.axt.com/Investors/news/news-details/2026/AXT-Inc--Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; https://www.hsbc.com/investors/results-and-announcements/all-reporting/interim-results-2026-quick-read ; https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results .
SNDK FY EPS multiple23.56
SNDK annualized Q4 multiple9.88
AXTI annualized Q2 multiple102.29
AXTI revenue growth pct164.44
Samsung op margin pct52.19
Samsung DS profit share pct99.66
HSBC wealth fee growth pct19.57
whole share cap USD212.75
nominal loss cap USD8.51
allocation0
Darden uncertainty and market control keep empirical Kelly unallocated
Premises1 fixed DRI holdout N6 has cash-basis p=.5, W3.216773%, L1.314447%, mean0.951163%; mean95%bootstrap CI[-.828497,2.966011]%. Bootstrap82.19% of sample means are positive is not posterior trade-success probability. 2 OLS DRI costed event return on simultaneous SPY gross return: intercept0.161299%, beta-1.272867, correlation-.730141; conventional small-sample t95% intercept[-2.35749,2.68008] and beta[-2.92652,.380785]. NetDRI minusgrossSPY mean1.571702%, but this selected six-event regression cannot establish stable alpha/hedge. 3 Standard binary-payoff quarterKelly=.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L))=.073922; conservative uncertainty gate sets operational fraction0. 4 Queried own ledger three losses, mean-16.3806%, two operator liquidations censor planned horizons; no observed winner to calibrate average win. RARE gap loss45.86%,6.44listed-stopR demonstrates stops are not hard loss bounds. Source event observations16251–74, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . Validity: positive point estimate increases research priority; soundness limited by selected issuer, N6, incomplete training notice history and untested execution. Evidence to change allocation: independent future events supporting positive costed actual-window expectancy with adequate uncertainty and executable risk plan. Monthly shortfall is not an input.
N6
win_probability0.5
average_win_pct3.22
average_loss_pct1.31
expectancy_pct0.95
CI_low_pct-0.83
CI_high_pct2.97
OLS_alpha_pct0.16
OLS_beta-1.27
correlation-0.73
empirical_quarterKelly0.07
operational_allocation0
Broad supply candidates: delivery cash and financing determine who keeps scarcity rents
Premises:1. SEI Sep8 raised H2 EBITDA midpoint207.5m to282.5m (+36.1446%); guidance includes acquisitions, not solely organic scarcity. https://ir.solaris-energy.com/news/2026/09-08-2026-114509510 .2. Updated Q2 filing supersedes FY25 supplier concentration: Q2 suppliers24/16%, H1 27/13%, versus FY25 one51%; customer concentration instead rose to63%Q2 revenue and68%AR. H1 OCF265.506m less PPE835.2m=-569.694m simpleFCF; deferred-revenue inflow181.320m materially supports OCF; subtraction gives84.186m diagnostic, not forecast. Cash824.101m/debt2491.709m June30. https://ir.solaris-energy.com/~/media/Files/S/Solaris-IR/reports-and-presentations/10-q-2q26.pdf .3. SEI deck950MW current vs3.2GW2029 and2.2bn remainingcapex imply financing/construction exposure, not immediate earnings. Rough63.96*73.549m economicshareproxy=4.704bn equity plus1.668bn booknetdebt=6.372bn EV proxy, NOT fairvalue: mixed vintages, acquisitions, NCI, leases, TRA, converts omitted.4. LEU overhalf deliveries through2027 depend TENEX; US waiver does not guarantee Russian export permission; low historical inputcost aided margins. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065059/000162828026007117/leu-20251231.htm .5. CCJ unchanged19.5–21.5mlb own-outputguide despite outages; Q2 uranium market-related revenue76.903%,fuel7.581%, so uranium price does not uniformly reprice earnings. https://www.cameco.com/sites/default/files/documents/2026-Q2-MDA-FS-Notes_0.pdf .6. HUT future949MW/26.6bnbasecontracts/7.5bn financing are not current NOI or BTC flows. https://www.hut8.com/news-insights/press-releases/hut-8-reports-second-quarter-2026-results .7. OESX Sep8 repeat data-center lighting order has no disclosed exact value/margin; Q1 OCF1.352m/PPE.006m provides cash baseline only. https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-announces-additional-multimillion-dollar-data-center .8. ALM July14 GTP term15→21years and total3.15→4.41mMTU both imply210000MTU/year unchanged; price+6.3% distinct. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226033123/ex99-1.htm .9. Prysmian Q2 transmissionmargin21.2%vs17.1% and digital23.8%vs16.8% are realized improvement, but LTMFCF978mvs979m flat; margin basis is standardmetalprices. https://www.prysmian.com/en/media/press-releases/prysmian-raises-guidance-after-its-best-quarter-yet . CW and LIN forward adjusted PE37.55/26.31 use issuer midpointguidance, not GAAP valuation; both whole-share prices exceed212.75cap (recorded observations). Validity: capacityconstraints can confer pricing only with paiddeliveries beyond costs/financing. Soundness incomplete: contracts/customer acceptance, realized returns and fresh executable data remain gaps. Counterexamples: prepayments can finance SEI build economically; termextensions secure ALM longduration cash; they do not prove a ten-session equity edge. Prior upgraded on SEI/OESX operating evidence, trading allocation remains0 given rejected/uncertain holdouts.
SEI_H2_raise_pct36.14
SEI_FCF_m-569.69
SEI_customer_Q2_pct63
SEI_netdebt_m1667.61
SEI_remaining_capex_bn2.2
ALM_annual_MTU210000
CCJ_market_uranium_pct76.9
PRY_LTM_FCF_m978
CW_adj_forward_PE37.55
LIN_adj_forward_PE26.31
allocation0
Darden event bootstrap: positive median is not a tail-risk bound
Source costed cash-return observations16251–56 from original DRI SEC releases and https://runway.adityperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars (URL spelling correction: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ). NumPy seed20260909 resamples six holdout whole-event returns with replacement into50000 ten-event paths, starting49.14 and hypothetically fully reinvesting at each event. Terminal p5/p50/p95=47.6642/53.8006/61.1115USD, terminal-loss frequency11.128%, p95 maximum drawdown7.4522%. Separate mean bootstrap CI[-0.8285,2.9660]% includes zero. This is conditional on the six observed outcomes being representative and independent; it cannot generate missing large gaps, regime shifts, taxes or actual execution failures. No actual capital allocated. Strongest counterexample is unobserved early news: prior RARE realized loss45.86% and6.44 listed-stop R, which this earnings bootstrap never samples. Do not interpret11.128% as calibrated live-loss probability or7.45% as worst loss. Simulation informs a research watch, not authorization; quarterKelly estimate0.073922 is overridden by evidence gates to0.