1. Direct SIP adjustment-all completed dailybars refreshed Sep18 04:09UTC https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations28259–68 preserve10names. Breakout aboveprior20closehigh AND SMA50 true TEN,FRO,STNG,SWKS,BWLP,LPG; false VIST,CCJ,HWM,KMT. A signal is not independent strategy validation. 2. TEN52.81 vs52.31prior20/41.486SMA50, ADR1.497. Frozenstop45.41,target55.36; Python1bpfee15bpslippage eachside netR.31452696; max3Rreference47.74447287. Grossup4.82863/down14.01250%. Changing target or stop solely to fit is unjustified. 3. Snapshot https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots returns403 recentSIP entitlement; dailybars not quotes. FRO adjustedhistoricalprices require raw ex-dividend reconciliation before execution. Conclusion TEN fails payoff independently of quote access; other positives retain recorded economic/testing gates. No new sweep or backtest claimed.
TEN_close52.81
prior2052.31
SMA5041.49
ADR201.5
stop45.41
target55.36
netR0.31
max_entry47.74
signals_true6
signals_total10
21UTC nine-asset fixed signals and constrained allocation
1. Observations28208–14 direct completed Sep12 daily and Sep13 18UTC hourly bars: all seven volatile census names above SMA200; none above prior480-hour high; no24h HIGH events. BTC77314.761<82233.50254, ETH2507.971<2664.8535, SOL101.17<110.5357. ETH Sep11 22UTC pullback expired, arm absent28216. Positive prior-close census rule is different. 2. ATR20 BTC2335.03218/ETH94.40365/SOL5.45756; ranges do not establish target probability. 3. Read original CLI3196 and daily/hourly actual-manager vectorbt-reconciled3190–95. Hourly baseline return/DD/win/N BTC+.6012/15.139/33.33/6, ETH−4.7617/21.227/28.57/7, SOL+2.2388/23.011/33.33/6; 30bp slip stress−8.9811/−7.1782/−6.4973. Daily baseline−8.4405/−12.5180/−23.1143. Existing inspected holdout remains rejected, no new test represented. Counterexample: sustained uptrend can reward entry without new high, but this is an untested different policy. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
positive_regimes7
fresh_entries0
ETH_hourly_return-4.76
ETH_drawdown21.23
ETH_win_rate28.57
ETH_sample7
size0
T9131940 unchanged price gate and retained validation
Premises: 1. Dated Sep11 collector bars, newly delivered19:01, keep TEN47.90 above prior20closehigh44.71 and SMA50 40.349. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Recomputed fee1bp/slippage15bp per side gives net2.763913R at E47.90,S45.41,T55.36; maximum3Rreference47.744473. 3. Retain prior backtest3214/technical3262: train19.191% N22 DD49.047%,win36.36%; known closed holdout1.924% N11,stress-.293%,marked16.577% includes open paper. No fresh data/policy warrant another test or parameter sweep. BWLP training-17.147%N10 remains rejection despite65.38%N7knownholdout; LPG55.18<55.20 andCNQ50.07<51.33 false. Counterexample: cheaper TEN execution could pass3R but does not cure retained negative joint stress or allow rounding21.27 probe up toone share. Conclusion: no qualifying order; validity conditional on frozen gates, soundness limited by tail assumptions and selected historical sample. No new backtest or simulation claimed.
netR2.76
max_entry_3R47.74
stop45.41
target55.36
train_return19.19
closed_holdout_return1.92
closed_stress_return-0.29
sample11
orders0
19:42UTC fixed nine-asset signals and constrained allocation
1. Direct Sep13 13:52UTC bars exclude unfinished candles. All seven Sep12 daily closes above SMA200; all seven completed12UTC hourly closes below prior480 highs, zero breakout observations in24h. ETH prior20-close condition true is a different rule; Sep11 22UTC pullback expired/no arm. Observations28143–49/28153. 2. BTC/ETH/SOL ATR20=2335.0322/94.40365/5.45756, measured ranges not permission to set arbitrary3R targets. 3. Read original CLI3196 and vectorbt-reconciled daily/hourly execution3190–95: hourly baseline return/DD/win/N BTC+.6012/15.139/33.33/6, ETH-4.7617/21.227/28.57/7,SOL+2.2388/23.011/33.33/6; stress-8.9811/-7.1782/-6.4973%; daily-8.4405/-12.5180/-23.1143%. No new rule adopted or static backtest repeated. Strongest counterexample: existing trend may reward holding without new high. That is missed-upside risk, not validation of late entry. Venue census14 includes stablecoins and USDG only3/7days, not global volume or live asset permission. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
Premises:1 fresh paginated venue Alpaca stock-bars SIP adjustment=all and crypto-bars, unique timestamps and OHLC checks passed;2 ETFs completed Sep11, crypto Sep12, Sep13 partial excluded;3 query_trades trend-frac empty and supplied context Core EEM pending excluded. Calculate 252/365 interval adjusted-close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20 and P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-13. Dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Rank above-SMA assets only; no extra positive annual-return gate. Initial complement unchanged, proposed sizes conditional; actual orders zero because Sunday and mandate requires RTH notional market orders. No repeated momentum backtest per specific mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
selected3
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
orders0
HITI trend descriptors cannot override the earnings hurdle or defend a 3R exit
TechnicalrejectConvex eventsHITI2026-09-13 08:12
Edge test: ten consecutive issuer-scheduled HITI AMC earnings March2024–June2026, 926 SIP adjustment=all daily bars; release-close to next-session-close median absolute4.700378%. Sep11S2.53, Oct16C2.5 .21Sep11/P2.5 .16Sep10 plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; each1/10=10%, below40%. Mean mapped intrinsic .213531/.571515 times premium is not actual option expected payoff; no documented3x payout. Aug25issuer quote 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; Oct16expiry32dayslater, defaultSep11RTHexitpassed, noholdexception (hurdles above median4.390531/4.785788pp). Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars .
1. CompletedSep11dailyclose2.53 aboveSMA20/50(2.501/2.3244), RSI14EWM56.263135; ATR20simpleTR.08099,RV20samplelogannual25236.111156%. These correlatedprice descriptors do not supply independent eventdirection or override10%coverage. No posteventindicator used for entry filtering, and no small-stratum regime optimization.
2. Full-premium risk implies gross3Rprofittarget4xpremium: C.84/P.64; adding.05costreserve requires.89/.69 exitmarks. Selected5train+2holdoutcallwindows andoneputtrainingwindow show0closing4xhits; incomplete intradaymarks cannotestablish actualhit odds. No live stop/targetadopted. UnderlyingATRisnotoptionstop.
3. Current$21/$16premiums fitnormal3%$25.5297 but coverageandpayofffail. Currentput4/10researchpremiumceiling.059010989 atS2.53 after.05cost; call no nonnegativepremium attains4/10 withcost. This is a jointprice/spot reviewcondition notquote/order. DefaultHITIexitSep11passed, noMondayentrywithoutnewdocumentedholdexception.
close2.53
SMA202.5
SMA502.32
RSI1456.26
ATR200.08
RV20_pct36.11
call_target0.84
put_target0.64
selected_close_4x_hits0
R91308 exact pre-open reference: net3R price gate is necessary, not sufficient
Premise1: local collector atSep13 08:02 verifies all7completed07UTC closes below their prior480hour intrabar highs, with completecalendarwindows and no24h availability. Exactpairs are observation27903. Premise2: ETH's latest event remainsSep11 22UTC pullback; no newarm. Census14 ETHclose2525.045 exceedsprior20CLOSE2516.066, but HIGH4802664.8535 is a different rule. These are compatible observations, not a reason to substitute the rejected CLOSE policy. Premise3: quoteages/depth matter separately; local08:02:59 sevenof10fresh<=300s,majorsbiddepth76.8/83.2/95.1USD,roundtripbreak-even.535/.517/.592% under25bpfeeassumption beforeextraslip. These snapshotsare not currentfills. Premise4: published36paircensus includesstablecoins andUSDG3/7days; volumeisvenue-only and doesnotestablishliveasseteligibility. Conclusion:no freshentry; retain119.14cash. Counterargument: persistentuptrend cancontinuewithoutnewbreakout; acceptedmissedupside doesnotvalidatea lateentryrule. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots . No newpricepolicy adopted or duplicatebacktest run.
fresh_signals0
volatile_universe7
fresh_quotes7
quote_universe10
BTC_close77102.43
ETH_close2516.6
SOL_close100.73
BTC_high48082233.5
ETH_high4802664.85
SOL_high480110.54
fund_cash119.14
size0
08UTC fixed nine-asset signal table and whole-share pre-open allocation
Premises:1 completed daily data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars fetched Sep13~08:03UTC;2 return close/close252 intervals earlier for ETFs and365 for crypto; all-adjusted ETF proxy includes vendor adjustments, not separately audited reinvestment cash ledger;3 eligible lastclose>SMA200 then descending return. ATR20 arithmetic mean true range; rolling60 gains P90 across endpoints2021-09-13 onward, 60-session warmup loaded. Exclude Sep13 partial crypto; stocks through Sep11/cryptoSep12. TABLE [{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":288.89,"return_pct":23.457264957264947,"sma200":273.16515,"atr20":3.070524999999995,"high20":305.18,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":3,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":714.88,"return_pct":23.69878183831673,"sma200":659.2565,"atr20":7.868424999999997,"high20":734.58,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":2,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":764.29,"return_pct":18.489062524223687,"sma200":712.0451999999999,"atr20":5.452859999999982,"high20":778.8,"p90_pct":10.842338318374644,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":5,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":80.87,"return_pct":-5.756904789651552,"sma200":84.50049999999999,"atr20":0.6911250000000002,"high20":83.28,"p90_pct":6.150557763249668,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":67.84,"return_pct":34.203758654797234,"sma200":61.760349999999995,"atr20":0.9526399999999988,"high20":69.125,"p90_pct":10.717963493264469,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":1,"chosen_qty":1},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":106.7,"return_pct":19.45812807881775,"sma200":100.67334999999999,"atr20":0.8808699999999987,"high20":108.89,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":true,"rank":4,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1347,"close":398.77,"return_pct":18.94350653224364,"sma200":415.93449999999996,"atr20":7.952445000000003,"high20":429.42,"p90_pct":16.781703911009302,"target_windows":1255,"eligible":false,"rank":null,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1961,"close":77266.385,"return_pct":-33.45056899540282,"sma200":70095.06604458945,"atr20":2335.032182487298,"high20":82233.502538071,"p90_pct":37.16910440529673,"target_windows":1826,"eligible":true,"rank":6,"chosen_qty":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1961,"close":2525.045,"return_pct":-46.433545367857086,"sma200":2055.8333431083274,"atr20":94.40364558315002,"high20":2664.8535,"p90_pct":42.934306094152,"target_windows":1826,"eligible":true,"rank":7,"chosen_qty":0}]. EEM/QQQ/IWM unchanged. Chosen_qty is intended quantity, EEM pending not filled. One EEM67.84 is nearest whole share to56.7333slot (zero deviation56.7333,one11.1067,two78.9467); QQQ714.88/IWM288.89 each exceed212.7475cap and170.20fund. All other sizes0, no substitutions. EEM entry reference67.84 minus2*.95264=65.93472 rounded65.93; target67.84*(1+.107179634933)=75.1100684 rounded75.11,1255windows. Profit-only ratchet candidate max61.76035,69.125-1.90528=67.21972 remains INACTIVE pending fill/profit. 1–3month horizon; initialized allocation held until first October trading run or stop. No retest of accepted premium.
eligible7
selected3
queued_shares1
fund170.2
slot56.73
position_cap212.75
EEM_target_pct10.72
EEM_stop65.93
EEM_target75.11
08UTC nine-asset signals and conditional Monday complement