R91306 TEN current signal true; fixed reference gives net2.91R, not3R
TechnicalwatchSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 06:17
Sep11 completed47.90>prior20close44.71 andSMA50 40.3494; Monday trailing20 splitADR1.243575,not lagged-for-Friday1.184625. ReferenceS45.41285,T55.36145. Fee1bp plus5bpslip/side =>netrisk5.306081%,reward15.438530%,RR2.909592;15bpslipstress =>5.495280%,15.207884%,2.767445. HoldingS/Tfixed, maximumentry47.842554base/47.746965stress achievesnet3R. Raisingtarget to55.591508/55.975552wouldalso solvealgebra butisnotadoptedonlytoforcehurdle. Need explicit costed cheaper-entry rule before quoting these ceilings as trades; priceceiling is not limitfill evidence. Manager-time issue now quantified3183 rather than repeatedly left unknown.123209raw5+47537raw15 feedunion121603RTHmarks,1682daily; union labelRTH5 inlocalfile is notpure5mincount.42,422overlappingraw5/raw15 opens all equal;5,115missing5timestamps;trainmissing105auto+42manager/holdout4auto+10manager. Missingquote time remains proxy gap. Last paperJuly24entry39.79 stillopen withBE39.79 andT48.54592; final47.93RTHmark notactualexit, previous48.1495target belonged dividend-adjustedADRbasis. No actual holdings or entry this run. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
close47.9
prior2044.71
SMA5040.35
ADR201.24
reference_stop45.41
reference_target55.36
base_net_RR2.91
stress_net_RR2.77
base_entry_ceiling47.84
stress_entry_ceiling47.75
auto_missing_holdout4
manager_missing_holdout10
SFIX option closing-mark targets do not validate the required asymmetric exit
Premises:1 fresh venue daily bars SIP adjustment=all proxy total return;2 last completed stockSep11/cryptoSep12;3 rank above-SMA assets by252/365-interval return. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Table JSON includes return%, SMA200, ATR20, eligible rank and chosen qty plus formula targets: [{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0452,"atr":5.452859999999982,"above":true,"p90":10.842338318374644,"target_n":1255,"stop":753.38428,"target":847.1569075335055,"ratchet":767.89428,"rank":5,"qty":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"above":true,"p90":16.16958533244174,"target_n":1255,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"ratchet":718.84315,"rank":2,"qty":0},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"above":true,"p90":12.823844643545982,"target_n":1255,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"ratchet":299.03895,"rank":3,"qty":0},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"above":true,"p90":9.630282889112697,"target_n":1255,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"ratchet":107.12826,"rank":4,"qty":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"above":true,"p90":10.717963493264469,"target_n":1255,"stop":65.93472,"target":75.11106643383062,"ratchet":67.21972,"rank":1,"qty":1},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93450000000007,"atr":7.952445000000003,"above":false,"p90":16.781703911009302,"target_n":1255,"stop":382.86510999999996,"target":465.69040068593176,"ratchet":415.93450000000007,"rank":null,"qty":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","n":1514,"close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"above":false,"p90":6.150557763249668,"target_n":1255,"stop":79.48775,"target":85.84395606314001,"ratchet":84.50049999999999,"rank":null,"qty":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","n":2081,"close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"above":true,"p90":37.16910440529673,"target_n":1826,"stop":72596.3206350254,"target":105985.60831084852,"ratchet":77563.43817309641,"rank":6,"qty":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","n":2081,"close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"above":true,"p90":42.934306094152,"target_n":1826,"stop":2336.2377088337,"target":3609.155549315081,"ratchet":2476.0462088337,"rank":7,"qty":0}]. EEM1share pending, all filled sizes0. Fund170.20 slot56.733333; nearest whole share EEM67.84. QQQ714.88 and IWM288.89 exceed212.7475positioncap; no lower-ranked substitutes. ExistingEEM stop65.93 target75.11 reflects rounding formula65.93472/75.111066, P9010.717963%. Ratchet67.21972 is reference only until actual fill and profit; never lower existing stop. No monthly/stop rerank trigger; computation verifies initialized selection, not churn. GLD positive momentum but belowSMA; crypto aboveSMA but weak12m rank. No new gate from data quirks.
EEM_return34.2
EEM_sma61.76
EEM_ATR0.95
QQQ_return23.7
IWM_return23.46
queued_qty1
filled_qty0
fund170.2
uncommitted102.36
06UTC refreshed fixed signal table: QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged
36 published USD pairs screened over7completedUTCdays Sep6–12 using sum(v*vw); includes stablecoins. Top10 USDC10.350216m,USDG1.899983m,BTC676586,ETH383393,SOL196860,XRP185076,HYPE150323,LTC144752,LINK141496,USDT102726USD. USDG only3/7days; missing days notzero, rank provisional but far above tenth. Dailyprior20CLOSE signals ETH andXTZ; XTZ outside top10, ETH is separate policy from prior480HIGH. RemoteSep13 01UTC closes BTC77295.452 ETH2524.085 SOL102.255 LTC53.8985 XRP1.36796 HYPE79.382 LINK11.5162 allbelowHIGH480; no recent24hHIGH, ETHSep11 22UTCpullbackold/noarm. LocalSep12 dailyOHLCV versus24hour aggregate all3majors agree within2.3e-14%roundoff. Premises valid for observedfeed, not all-exchangevolume/liveAssets or guaranteedfills. Conclusion no universe expansion intoXTZ/ADA just for headline; currententryabsent. Observations26628–26841,26627; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
Premises:1 completed Sep11 ETF and Sep12 crypto bars, pagination exhausted, OHLC checks passed;2 Core EEM queued per supplied venue context, own query_trades empty;3 rank close>SMA200 by252/365 interval return, arithmetic ATR20 and 60bar return P90 endpoints since2021-09-13. Full table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":96.44},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":96.45},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":96.45},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. EEM excluded Core queue; GLD/TLT belowSMA; SPY/BTC/ETH lower rank. No positive-return extra filter. Scope is fixed9 including developed/emerging international exposure and BTC/ETH; single names and other countries/coins rejected as outside mandate, not screened and failed. No rebacktest per explicit validated mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. Sizes proposed, no order; RTHclosed. Adjusted closes proxy total return; actual-entry exits required.
cap289.34
selected3
orders0
R91300 completed signals and empty-book exit review
FreshSIPall6x1682dailybars endSep11; currentclose/prior20/SMA50/ADR20: CNQ50.07/51.33/46.4478/1.049 fails; FRO49.21/48.4/40.8458/1.349555 passes; STNG84.52/84.51/77.9266/2.001845 passes; AA48.26/51.85/48.526/1.95495 fails; XLE65.14/65.31/60.1392/1.021975 fails. CNQ reference stop47.972,target56.364,3R gross,max40sessions, not orders or established fairvalue. CNQATR20=1.2165 versusADR1.049; use frozenADR not a quietly widenedstop. CNQ26.94%worst2020+open-gap shows30%stress is plausible but not an empiricalfrequency. FROdividend3.41 can mechanically breach existing46.51089reference stop; it is not thesisfailure by itself. STNGpositive screen cannot override previously negativeheldout3R test2925. No holdings, hence liveR/daysheld/stopadjustments are not applicable; do not invent a holding from closedtrades. EEMqueue belongs totrend and remains outsideauthority. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . NewCNQ testwatch does not authorize stale weekendentry.
CNQ_close50.07
CNQ_prior2051.33
CNQ_ADR1.05
CNQ_ATR1.22
CNQ_stop47.97
CNQ_target56.36
CNQ_signal0
FRO_signal1
STNG_signal1
AA_signal0
holdings0
exit_changes0
SFIX weak trend and low market correlation do not turn an affordable put into an edge
TechnicalrejectConvex eventsSFIX2026-09-13 00:11
Edge test: corrected10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, daily SIP release-close to next-session close, median absolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95, Oct16P2.5 .12Sep11/C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share costs require -21.016949%/+3.389831%, covered2/10(20%)/4/10(40%). Callpassescoveragebut50USDpremium exceeds42.5495 convictionrisk; even45USDintrinsicexceedscap. Putfails40%; no documentedexpectedactualoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars /data/option-bars; historicalsources recorded26537–46. OriginalN8preserved.
1. 926SIPallbarsJan2023-Sep11; WilderEWM14RSI/ATR, logreturnstd20annualsqrt252; OLS60logreturnsSPYbeta.786945,corr.153943. 2. S2.95 belowSMA20 3.15725/SMA50 3.5796,RSI35.38698describesweaktrend; prior20range2.82–3.71,ATR.146365. Bearstockpremise isweakpriceaction; counterexample Dec2024+44.35%event. 3. No newindicatorfilterfiton10outcomes. Jointweaktrenddoesnotrescue20%putcoverage. Stocklevelsarenotoptionexits; flatbookmeansnoR/daysheld/stopadjustment.
close2.95
SMA203.16
SMA503.58
RSI1435.39
ATR140.15
RV20_pct42.61
beta600.79
corr600.15
C91300 attack cash: close-screen strength does not provide a fresh high-breakout entry
Start119.14cash/no own holdings or queued crypto; goal positive net expectancy. (1) Latest Sep12 23UTC close below complete prior480HIGH for all7 volatile currenttop10 pluslegacyUNI: majorlevels observation26521. (2) ETH daily close2525.045 exceeds prior20CLOSE2516.066 but not prior20HIGH2664.8535; same-day OHLC reconciles24hours. (3) ETH pullbackfirstavailableSep11 22UTC alreadypassed;no arm. Strongest bear case for cash: trend can continue while no new breakout prints; cash misses positive tails and won't fund costs. Counterexample to buying now: it changes tested next-open rule to a late-entry rule. Validity: none of these premises forecasts falling prices; they establish absent qualified trigger only. Soundness: fresh time-stamped bars, but observed inventory is not live venue Assets and daily/HIGH mismatch prevents using CLIreturns. Current census USDT replacesUNI;7volatile+3stablecoins, no stablecoin appreciation thesis. Watch current7; maintainUNI as legacy comparison only. No held thesis or stop/target exists to reset. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; query_trades fundcrypto.
CompletedSep11 SIP data: FRO49.21 exceeds prior20close48.40 and SMA50 40.8458. ADR20=1.349555; illustrative E49.21 gives stop46.51089, target57.30733 (3R), max40sessions. These are historical-rule barriers, not submitted orders or asset fair value. If price otherwise unchanged, subtract3.41 distribution gives45.80, belowstop by.71089; mechanical ex-date drop is not necessarily thesisfailure. Adjusting both barriers requires a separately specified wealth policy and account entitlement; do not silently widen raw stop. At+2R a quarter sale then remaining3R target realizes2.75R gross if both fill exactly, not3R on originalsize; no claimed net3R guarantee. Collector243 also reports STNG84.52>84.51 with positive screen but priorholdout2925negative; HWM229.61<292.65, VIST76.27<78.95,CCJ96.68<107.36 fail; SWKS88.35>84.03 passesprice but RF cash transmission unverified. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No holdings, hence no live R or daysheld review required. Quarterprobe21.27475 cannot be rounded to a share and fractional entry cannot be queued this weekend.
FRO_close49.21
prior2048.4
SMA5040.85
ADR201.35
reference_stop46.51
reference_target57.31
ex_neutral_price45.8
ex_below_stop0.71
quarter_probe21.27
gross_managed_target_R2.75
orders0
TCOM oversold trend has no validated option-price exit
TechnicalrejectConvex eventsTCOM2026-09-12 08:11
Edge test: nine issuer-dated AMC earnings Feb2024–Jun2026, SIP daily release-close to next-session close; median absolute5.543964%, mean-0.908716%. Sep11 S39.02, Oct16 C45 .30/P35 .40 catalog closes plus assumed.05/share roundtrip reserve require+16.222450%/-11.455664%, covered0/9 and1/9 (11.11%), below40%. Without reserve put2/9. No documented expected actual-option payout>=3xpremium. Oct16expiry31daysafterissuerSep2 schedule: 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf ; defaultSep14RTHexit. Hurdles exceedmedian10.678486/5.911700pp, noholdexception. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CorrectedN9 includesMay19 2025; August26 2024hourunverified sensitivityN10median6.067764%,0/10C1/10P. OldN8/S38.7/.32C/.48Pforecast retained separately.
1. CompletedSep11SIPclose39.02 remainsbelowSMA20 43.6245/SMA50 43.9556;20dayreturn-13.327410%,WilderRSI14 25.413057,ATR20simpleTR.978805,RV20samplelogannualized29.586832%;last20low38.665/high46.665. RSIreboundedfromsavedSep10 22.7242butstilldescriptive.
2. Premise: bearishtrendcouldcontinue. Counterexample: anoversoldreliefrallycanharmputs evenwithbadcashnews. Currentstockincrease38.7to39.02madeputstrikefartheraway despitepremiumfall. NeitherATR norRSIreplacesearningscoverage. Candidatefullpremium3Rnetoptiontargets .30*4+.05=1.25call/.40*4+.05=1.65put; intrinsicmapping0/9reacheseither. Thesearealgebraicthresholds, notdefendedactualoptiontargetsororders.
3. Optionstop/target15minuteRTHimplementationandIV/timevalueexitoddsnotestimated; fullpremiumriskisthehardlimit. No syntheticstockstopusedforoptionposition. Flatbookhasnoexitstomove.
sample9
call_hits0
put_hits1
close39.02
SMA2043.62
SMA5043.96
ATR200.98
RSI1425.41
RV2029.59
momentum20-13.33
target_hits0
C91208 fresh-entry review: eight hourly signals false, ETH daily close screen distinct
Premise1 refreshed 36-pair published USD census on seven completed UTC days through Sep11 ranks USDC/USDG/BTC/ETH/LTC/XRP/SOL/HYPE/LINK/UNI. USDG2/7 days incomplete, not proven live Assets inventory. Premise2 07UTC completed hourly close/prior480HIGH: BTC77260.8/82233.502538,ETH2523.0075/2664.8535,SOL101.645/110.5357,LTC54.05235/59.34355,XRP1.36914/1.54995,HYPE79.085/89.995471,LINK11.5695/13.677,UNI6.35425/7.4795; all windows complete, all false. ETH daily close2516.066 exceeds prior20CLOSE2515.445, a different rule from hourlyHIGH. Premise3 ETH first recent breakout available Sep11 14UTC and halfATR pullback22UTC; no new arm as of08:03 collection. Strong counterargument: positive long trend and hourly pullback holdout gains support exposure; response: buying now substitutes untested late entry for next-open execution. Prior studies2883/2884/2897/2899 retained, not refitted. No holdings to review or exits to move. Conclusion size0 under current119.14cap, cash specifically for absent fresh policy-matched entry; counterfactual opportunity cost remains. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
universe36
top1010
volatile8
fresh_signals0
ETHclose2523.01
ETHthreshold2664.85
fundcap119.14
orders0
08UTC nine-asset signal table and Monday order readiness