Stats

1. Queried Catalyst ledger contains3closedlosses,0open/pending/closing,2operatorliquidations censor intendedhorizons. Pythonreturns MIRM-.439321%,IONS-2.842420%,RARE-45.860062%;meanloss16.380601%,winrate0/3,avgwinnerundefined. No positive edge estimate from ledger; sample too small toprove allfutureedgesnegative. RAREexit13.98976 vsstop24 =41.7093%worse, gapnotboundedbylogicalstop. 2. Separate frozenCHWY38 prospective N1 paper: Aug25IEXopen24.47 toSep8open23.86,5bpfee/slip eachside net-2.687668%; negative newobservation, not appendedtohistoricalholdout toretuneparameters. OriginalhistoricalN6p50%,W4.523391%,L4.828695%,mean-.152652%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614% retained. 3. Costs andcorrectedcapitalKelly(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4 implynonpositiveCHWYcapital; adopted0. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY,LOVE,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . No fabricatedavgwinner or pricededge.

P1 ExactSciPyClopperPearson95%intervals:TYRA8/14primary3mCR28.86–82.34%,8/8singlemarkerORR63.06–100%,9/14bestCR35.14–87.24%. IRD3/4MP19.41–99.37%,5/5anyfunction47.82–100%,0/5SAE0–52.18%. These assume independentBernoullioutcomes, do notadjustmultiplicity,selection,posthoclociorcontrolbias,andarenotapproval/stockwinprobabilities. P2 Ownquery_trades IDs9/7/1 givesSNOW-5.39236%,DELL+7.93994%,GTLB-5.13050%;qtyweightedrealized-1.04605,p1/3,avgwin7.93994,avgloss5.26143,quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*loss/win))=0. Alloperatorliquidations before4–6weekhorizon,sooutcomescensoredfororiginalrule; N3not independent clinicalstockholdout. Noinferredstop/targethitrate orslippagewithoutfillbenchmark. Conclusion neither promisingclinicalproportionnorN3tradehistory suppliespositivevalidatededge. Newuntouchedcostedstockeventstudywithexactendpointclassificationwouldmovequalification; singlefavorablequoteornarrativewouldnot. Sources query_trades fund=quant; https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/2026-09-09-Tyra-Biosciences-Reports-Initial-Phase-2-SURF302-Results-Supporting-the-First-Potential-Oral-Innovation-in-LG-IR-NMIBC-with-Dabogratinib ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases/detail/543/opus-genetics-announces-positive-low-dose-cohort-1-data-from-phase-12-clinical-trial-of-opgx-best1-and-successful-fda-type-c-meeting-with-potential-phase-3-dosing-in-2027 . Calculations archived observation18398/18400/18401.

Trading-run arithmetic check, not a new backtest or new independent samples. Reused recorded costed 2025 training/2026 holdouts1639–1641 and correction1653; Python computed p*average_win-(1-p)*average_loss and max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(win/loss))). BTC p42.6829%,win2.642605%,loss3.080586%,N82 => expectancy-.637761%; ETH44.2623/4.139850/4.236197,N61 =>-.528767%; SOL47.1429/4.496455/4.301185,N70 =>-.153726%. Every quarterKelly0. 15m compounded returns -43.5409/-32.9637/-18.7330%; daily/hourly negative also. These unconditional tests do not validate previously rejected pullback family; conditional holdouts only1–5 trades and cost/training failures stay frozen. Own trade history N1 forced liquidation, no setup win/loss or slippage distribution. Premises net positive demonstrated payoff required, absent => zero sizing. Counterexample future prices may rise; these rejected rules are not a bearish forecast. Complete-case omission, serial dependence and assumed cost/quote latency limit generalization. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; query_trades fund=crypto trade10.

Premises:1. Savedbacktest456 fixed next-open20close breakout/1ADRstop/2ADRtarget/5sessions, costedvectorbt and2022–24training/2025–Sep4holdout; priorCLI53 audited and rejected as execution proxy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2. Python recalculates17/41p=.4146341463,meanwin5.46270406%,meanloss2.96357664%,expectancy.5302470649%,breakevenp35.1706375%,rawquarterKelly2.42666937%; historical meanCI[-.874362,1.958541]% includeszero. No new trials or parameter sweep.3. Supply tradeledger only2 operator-liquidation wins; under unrealistic IID assumption Wilson95p[34.2380,100]%, empirical average loss undefined; plannedstop/target counts0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .4. Existingstat1629 FRO/STNGcorr.78064 andsim1630 conditional20trade lossfrequency38.17% do not validate independent edge. Conclusion approvedKelly0. Selection, correlated trades, regime shift and daily-bar fill uncertainty weaken soundness of point estimates. Counterexample positive expected payoff may be real; require prospective independent net evidence rather than infer certainty from live2/2. Retain frozen train/holdout and no redundant rebacktest during trading run.

Premise1 selected final-session time-only holdout N10 has p30%, W9.1616%, L1.6259%, mean1.61035%; ordinary bootstrap30000 gives[-1.64573,6.42680]%. Those are return uncertainty, not an approval probability. Premise2 biggest event Apr9 2025 (beforeApr10 earnings) gained20.82783% net while same-window SPY rose9.80126% gross. Removing it only as sensitivity yieldsN9 mean-0.524927%,total-4.930802%; original sample retains it. All leave-one-out means range[-0.524927,2.092853]%. Premise3 OLS of stock net vs SPY gross gives correlation0.914914,beta2.11122,intercept-0.437169% and mean excess0.640522pp. Tiny selected data and event/calendar dependence preclude causal alpha. Strongest counterargument is large genuine winners are part of a strategy; do not erase them because inconvenient. Rebuttal: uncertainty and mandate-compliant exits still fail, and current market-trend-positive groupN7 mean-0.21910% provides no rescue. No additional filters chosen. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; recorded event primary links18186–18233. Prior LOVE T5positive selection contaminates any claim this is independent replication. New evidence required: future notice-aware cohort with actual executable exits and positive cost-stressed lower confidence bound; one new report will not set size.

Premises:1.FrozenEEMholdout252entrydays2021–2025 givesnetcashmean−.09435646%, monthlyblock95%CI[−.17031598,−.00813813]%;10000resamples59monthswithtrades preservewithinmonth dependence. 2.Zero-costmanagedmean+.02560228%,95%CI[−.05079361,.10997021]%, independentseed909080; positivegrosspointestimateisweakcounterevidence, notrobustedge. 3.LowIBSclose-to-closemeanlog+.0760925%=overnight+.0295329%+intraday+.0465596%; 'other' intraday+.0100043%. OLS1255dailylogreturns onlaggedlowIBS andlag200dayreturn yieldsIBScoefficient+.0343094% withHAC5SE.0521406%,t.6580. Trenddescriptivesbull147andbear105signals haveintradaymeans+.0488239/+.0433895%; no regimefilterselected. 4.All8maincostedholdoutsnegative; all72higher-cost threshold/rule/assetcellsnegative. Conclusionrejectspecifiednextopenfamily; cannotinferallIBS/overnightstrategiesfail. Sourcepaper'seffectisclose-to-closeanddoesnotidentifycausation. EightchosenliquidETFsurvivorsarenotallhistoricalETFs; bootstrapstationarity andadjusteddataquality assumptionsremain. NoNinflationfromcorrelatedETFcontrols. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; originalprotocol1431; all696celloutputs1642–1669 andobservations18126–18274; diagnostics18315–18327.

Supersedesanalysis1651's parentheticalSOLtrainingomissioncount: actual savedsummarySOLtrainN116/skipped5,not18;BTC88/33,ETH112/9. Otherfindingsunchanged. Samecomplete72hOOSpathsBTC82/ETH61/SOL70;15m-minus-hourmean -.0028188/+.1110843/+.0950040pp,5000IIDpairedbootstrap95%CIs[-.164652,.183337]/[-.034771,.303008]/[-.040510,.250859]pp,allexamszero. Exitreasonsdiffer3permajor. Full15mhistorymissing119/119/95bars;OOSomissions1/22/13of83potentialwindows. Completecaseomissionmaybiasregimes;noIIDcertaintyassumedbeyondresampling. Nativehourmatchescomplete4x15mclosesexactlyN14686/14690/14728;nativedailyclosemaxdifference9.4753/9.2208/11.5241bpanddailyopenmax584.37/732.74/933.75bp. Experimentusescommon15mopen;canonicaldaily-closecontrolchanges0exitreasonsandmeanBTC+.000618pp,ETH/SOL0. Fastercheckstopovershootlower,butpairedexpectancyimprovementuncertainandunconditionalOOSreturnsnegative. Noentryedge;approved0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observations18056–18118/18166–18168.

Premises:1 Samecomplete72hpaths isolateclose-checkcadence withidenticalentry/range/costassumptions.2 2026BTC/ETH/SOL pairedN82/61/70,15m-minus-hourmean -0.002819/+0.111084/+0.095004percentagepoints;5000IIDpairedbootCI[-.16465,.18334]/[-.03477,.30301]/[-.04051,.25086]%.3 Exitreasonsdiffer3pathspermajor; directionofeffectisnotstronglyidentified. 4 15mfull2025–Sep8missing119/119/95bars,matchingwindowomissions train33/9/18 (verifySOLtrainfromobservations),OOS1/22/13. Completecaseanalysis maymissdifferentliquidityregimes. Hourlyaggregation exactlymatchesallcomplete4barclosesN14686/14690/14728; nativedailyclosemax9.4753/9.2208/11.5241bp, dailyopenmax584.37/732.74/933.75bp. Common15mopenpreventsentrymismatch; replacingnativedailyexitclosewith15maggregationchanged0exitreasons,meanBTC+.000618pp ETH/SOL0. Inferencefasterchecksreduceobservedtailovershootbutpositiveexpectancyimprovementnotestablished. BootstrapassumesIIDanddoesn'taddressserialdependence/omissionbias. Noadditionaltradingedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Data collected via paginated SIP adjusted daily bars Jan2025–Sep8 2026,421 per name,zero duplicates/badOHLC; pairwise aligned most recent60 daily returns. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO,STNG,ASPI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Pearson FRO/STNG .78064075; correlations toSPY .09613/.02578; OLS slope cov/var beta .38501/.07476; ASPI SPYcorrelation .48753,beta3.12913. These are descriptive market-state estimates, not causal rent capture or strategy alpha. Prior frozen FRO456 costed holdout17wins/41,41.4634% winrate,avgwin5.462704%,avgloss2.963577%,Wilson95 binomial p[27.7563,56.6332]%; return20.242565%,DD24.419466%,meanCI[-.874362,1.958541]%. N41 is old sample, not new evidence. Two fund live wins both operator liquidation cannot estimate rule win/loss or planned stop efficiency; no live losses gives undefined empirical loss mean. Premises correlation high and payoff unresolved imply no diversification-based sizing upgrade. Counterexample correlations can break in product/crude-specific shocks; do not impose permanent .78. Selection/survivorship,serial dependence, adjusted-bar execution and no point-in-time fixture panel remain gaps.

P1 Friday-to-Friday gross returns over259 complete within-period weeks in2021–2025: OEF third-week mean−.106145% versus otherweeks+.443038%. OLS third-week coefficient−.549183 percentagepoints, Newey-West4weeklylags t−1.64981,95%CI[−1.201620,+.103254]%; neither positive evidence nor proof of a negative structural law. P2 OEF-SPY calendar-premium difference−.005757%,CI[−.107767,+.096253]%; OEF-IWM+.011301%,CI[−.528429,+.551031]%. Correlation OEF/SPY .988189, so comparison ETFs are not independent corroboration. P3 managedOEF60monthlytrades mean−.226655%, quarter-block95%CI[−.640154,+.184983]%; stressmean−.426003%,CI[−.838623,−.015338]%. Inference: mandatory positive net-edge gate fails. Twenty quarter blocks sampled10,000times preserve nearby months, but long-range dependence and repeated historical strategy search remain uncorrected. Earlier2010paper endpoints verified; historicalpublication evidence differs in population/period. The holdout is rule-unseen chronological testing, not pristine research-wide OOS. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

Premises1 frozen pooled20event cash mean-2.099319%,p.30,W2.113383%,L3.904762%; ordinarybootstrap30000 CI[-4.141386,-.284650]%. 2 Events across three companies may share shocks, so calendar-quarter block resampling preserves withinquarter outcomes;7blocks/30000resamples givesmeanCI[-3.791963,-.301646]%. Fewblocks/currentlisted peers and retrospective dates limit generalization; neither interval estimates probability anyfuturetrade wins. 3 OLS netstockeventreturn versus simultaneousgrossSPY: {"holdout_quarter_blocks":7,"block_ci95_pct":[-3.7919634014513073,-0.30164586891220196],"OLS_alpha_pct":-2.6010243568358007,"OLS_beta":0.7172257731493704,"OLS_standard_errors":[0.010402481185520751,0.4598088076964301],"correlation":0.3450735209626099,"mean_excess_pct":-2.7988273745066206}. ConventionalOLSerrors ignore robustcluster uncertainty, no causal alpha claim. Simultaneous SPY outperforms by2.798827 percentagepoints/event onaverage; broadmarket exposure alone doesnotexplain loss. 4 Dropping two already-preannouncedCBRLtrainingfullreleases reduces trainmean.242401 to.150795%,N34CI[-1.434439,1.788231]%; no chosenholdout exclusions. Strongest counterexample: TXRHmean+.467328%,N7,CI[-.756842,1.730348]% merits independentlypreregistered futurestudy, not familywide shorting or allocating afterselection. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and primary56eventobservations17518–17594. Valid inference reject this longrunup transfer; invalid inference restaurantsfundamentallybad or inverse strategyprofitable. QuarterKellypool0.

Premises:1 FitOLS2025 only on121 nonoverlapping3day nextopen netreturns permajor: intercept, priorclose SMA100trend,RSI2<10,interaction,20dayvol. 2 Holdout83 disjoint3dayintervals2026: MSE relativezero BTC.98188,ETH.99606,SOL.95755; predictionsmean-.7529/-1.2662/-.6976% versusactual-.5905/-.5998/-.5918%. 3 Trainjointcells6/7/5,holdout2/0/0. Positive interactioncoefficients1.3783/2.7093/2.3312pctpoints cannotvalidate a tradingcell essentiallyabsentfromtest. Conclusion regression describes mainlynegative unconditionalnetdrift, notusablejointsignal. No statisticalsignificanceclaim; different3daygrid alignment could alterresults, fullrank5 doesn'tfixsmallcellcounts. Reusedcalendar andregime dependence remain. Strongcounterargument modelmaybeatzerobyforecastingcosts/negativebase drift; thatdoesnot provide long-onlyentryedge. Allfigures andcoefficients recordedin observations; filesresearch/regression.py/json. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

1. Chronological2026holdout N9 from prereg1385; mean95%bootstrapCI [-0.15619409475090745,2.4420381181021766]% crosseszero.2. EveryentryaboveSPY200, belowregimeN0.3. Daily2026 OLS {"sample":171,"daily_alpha_pct":-0.028969605559672994,"market_beta":1.1197039983882822,"r_squared":0.19447913987568277}; correlations {"WCC":0.5153584779443469,"HUBB":1,"SPY":0.44099789101047054}. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=WCC,HUBB,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. OLSintercept not abnormalstrategyreturn; heteroskedasticity/unmodeledfactors mean no inference from coefficient alone. Stocks selected for currentbusiness relevance, survivors omittedothers; tradingwindows cluster and issuernews not historicaleventlabels. iid bootstrap understates dependence and missesunobservedtails. Frozen training20/5 negative; 17of18trainingvariants negative across bothstocks, solepositive HUBB20/10 not selected. Positiveholdoutpointestimate cannot repair training instability. Requireprospectivelyfrozenindependent events andcostedpayoffs withpositive lowerCI, not retuning historical windows.

1. Chronological2026holdout N9 from prereg1385; mean95%bootstrapCI [-2.1918036650942527,3.061479355934164]% crosseszero.2. EveryentryaboveSPY200, belowregimeN0.3. Daily2026 OLS {"sample":171,"daily_alpha_pct":0.1179413135865879,"market_beta":2.0673477285826802,"r_squared":0.3398358653773208}; correlations {"WCC":1,"HUBB":0.5153584779443469,"SPY":0.5829544282165809}. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=WCC,HUBB,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. OLSintercept not abnormalstrategyreturn; heteroskedasticity/unmodeledfactors mean no inference from coefficient alone. Stocks selected for currentbusiness relevance, survivors omittedothers; tradingwindows cluster and issuernews not historicaleventlabels. iid bootstrap understates dependence and missesunobservedtails. Frozen training20/5 negative; 17of18trainingvariants negative across bothstocks, solepositive HUBB20/10 not selected. Positiveholdoutpointestimate cannot repair training instability. Requireprospectivelyfrozenindependent events andcostedpayoffs withpositive lowerCI, not retuning historical windows.

Premises1 ten paired advance-goal/public-announcement cases chosen from six preexisting fund/watchlist issuers;7 goals in2025,3in2026. All known completed cases found in this bounded search, not claimed exhaustive even for these issuers. Publisher-local lead days[3,-2,38,0,-1,-1,6,4,58,32], median3.5; six positive leads. Correcting MIRM to earlier FDA public release gives35days, and Australian US dates are intervals. Three robust >=35day cases: RAREUX11138, MIRMchenodiol35, NUVLzidesamtinib58. Sponsors/SEC copies count as sameorigin; FDA independently anchors approvals, but cannot verify unavailable sponsor CRL wording independently. 2 Named-news-free T20/T6 holdoutN2 mean-1.8556%, versus SPY gross samewindows-3.3660percentagepoints excess; T10/T2 mean+3.6779%, excess+5.7206pp, both trades crossed approval news. N2 OLS haszero residual degrees of freedom: correlation-1 and fittedbeta have no inferentialvalue. TrainN5 late-rule corr.6751/beta2.5682/alpha3.2273% is selected and3TLXclustered; no stablemarketalpha. 3 Ordinary empirical binary-payoff quarterKelly for late-rule p.5,W10.023035%,L2.667224% is.0917363, but it measures contaminated selected payoffs; operational0. Early-rule holdoutno wins, averagewinundefined, no positiveedge. Fundledger3losses includes2operatorliquidations; no unbiased independent p/W/L. Validity: one verified counterexample refutes guaranteed timing safety. Soundness: sampledcounts cannot quantify population risk, no posteriorprobability derived. Evidence to move allocation: preregistered prospective fullcalendar cohort, earliestnewstimestamps, allpipeline overlaps, independent actualexit-cost returns and executable risk; positivecurrentN2 alone insufficient. Sources pairedobservations17167–88/17285–90; https://www.fda.gov/media/151712/download ; prices https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Independent audit caught a reporting-basis difference, not a portfolio-return error: vectorbt trades Return uses entry notional as denominator, while fully invested equity includes entry fees. Correct cash-return=P n L/(size*entryprice+entryfee), equivalent to dividing earlier trade returns by1.0025. All6baselineholdout compounded cash returns now reconcile to portfolio returns within1e-8 percentagepoint. Thus averagewins/losses/expectancy and bootstrapCI in1460–1465 should use corrected observations; return,drawdown,N,winrate,quarterKelly0 unchanged. DailyBTC/ETH/SOL corrected expectedpayoffs-2.581506/-3.613642/-3.442937%; hourly-2.609239/-3.451847/-3.175189% (see exactrecordedobservations). Rejection remains. Filesresearch/test_supply.py nowcashbasis; backtests_cash_basis.json corrected96rows, audit_sim.py verification. Rawprice/source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supply https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 . No conversion of invalidhourlyexec into tradeapproval.

1. Preregistered weeklyOLS (notes1343/1348): Monday close to nextMonday close return on prior7-day USDCgrowth lag1day,USDTgrowth lag1day,and ownprior7dayreturn.51nonoverlapping2025development outcomes,35in2026holdout throughSep8. HC3errors; no vintagepublicationclock, macrocontrols orserial-HAC correction. 2. USDCcoefficients BTC/ETH/SOL flip from-.161/-.538/-.330 development to+.747/+1.018/+1.300 holdout. Holdout95%CI[-.765,2.259],[-1.981,4.016],[-.897,3.496]; all span0. Units return fraction per supply-growthfraction.3. Frozen2025forecast holdout correlations-.0155/-.0280/-.0559. MSE .004334/.009438/.009716 worse thanzeroforecast .004254/.008319/.009190. Holdoutrefit reported only as instabilitydiagnostic, not selectedmodel.4. Supplygrowth also correlates withalreadyelapsedreturns; simultaneity/omittedriskfactors precludecausation. Validconclusion no reliableforecast inthissample, notproofsupplynevermatters. Strongcounterexample a destination-specificflowcouldwork despiteaggregatesfailure; requireprospectivefirst-seenrecords and untouchedoutcomes. Source https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Files research/test_supply.py,regression.json,weeklyCSVs. Calendarholdout reused bypriorstrategies; allocation0.

Premise1 fourETFreturns are correlated: holdoutdailySPY/IWM .8659 andSPY/EFA .8543;332eventtradesrepresent83calendarwindows. Dailycross-ETFaverage regressedonconstant pluslast/first3daydummy, NeweyWest5lagSE. Holdout1760sessions,336TOMdays mean .0582627% versusother .0501137%; premium .0081490%,HACt .11495,95%CI[-.130797,.147095]%. ThuspositiveabsoluteTOMreturns neednotbe calendaralpha. Premise2 costschangefixedmanagedmeanfrom-.126943% to-.326489%, andmonthbootstrap95%stressCI[-.610288,-.037112]%; rejectspositiveedge. Premise3 postMay28 2024 dailycalendarpremium-.090084%,CI[-.321507,.141340]% across401sessions, notproofT+1causeddecay. ManagedpostT1 76trades/19windows mean-.156972%,p42.105%. Premise4 2026calendarpremium+.237545% hasCI[-.167466,.642555]%; recentstrengthdoesnotoverrideholdout. Trainingalsoinsignificant. Theopenvariant+24.17% baseline/+5.18%stressisstrongestcounterexamplebutitsstressmeanCI[-.415888,.558456]% spanszeroandlacksexits. Conclusionuncertainrawcalendarpremium, rejectedmanagededge, nosymbolcherry-pick. Dailycalendarregressionincludesboundarydays whereasportfolioexcludesboundary-spanningtrades. Fullnumericresults observations17282–17286 andcompleteexperiments. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-62 .

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Frozen1346 traininggrid lookback10/20/40 x hold5/10/20, costs20bps/side. All9 APD rows [{"lookback":10,"hold":5,"return_pct":-8.954063612187165,"drawdown_pct":27.89129971036093,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":2.316930952947609,"avg_loss_pct":3.098705762851648,"sample":63,"mean_pct":-0.09001869851872758,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":10,"hold":10,"return_pct":-30.317463956351787,"drawdown_pct":48.19066423191016,"win_rate_pct":45.09803921568628,"avg_win_pct":4.245228611401689,"avg_loss_pct":4.51172806400936,"sample":51,"mean_pct":-0.5625123084318275,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":10,"hold":20,"return_pct":-5.188465269371554,"drawdown_pct":36.85076356695909,"win_rate_pct":45.16129032258064,"avg_win_pct":6.2719794650724285,"avg_loss_pct":5.034684937908549,"sample":31,"mean_pct":0.07155059892156904,"quarter_Kelly":0.0028519943073802567},{"lookback":20,"hold":5,"return_pct":-7.375662785718904,"drawdown_pct":20.42229777243616,"win_rate_pct":56.81818181818182,"avg_win_pct":2.4288687344333324,"avg_loss_pct":3.4464970563847395,"sample":44,"mean_pct":-0.10822103887447108,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":20,"hold":10,"return_pct":-12.432149251989376,"drawdown_pct":34.72148454626669,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.174643338898468,"avg_loss_pct":3.999957315917777,"sample":33,"mean_pct":-0.284229745546757,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":20,"hold":20,"return_pct":-21.791169010157667,"drawdown_pct":44.17412119283325,"win_rate_pct":41.66666666666667,"avg_win_pct":5.9586308985861525,"avg_loss_pct":5.5349541536452795,"sample":24,"mean_pct":-0.7459603818821836,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":5,"return_pct":-11.75449386122178,"drawdown_pct":18.70927757466876,"win_rate_pct":53.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":2.1604583643163666,"avg_loss_pct":3.3274033821603046,"sample":28,"mean_pct":-0.3874774465478021,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":10,"return_pct":-15.90832655761591,"drawdown_pct":22.917039943337326,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":4.300591269337202,"avg_loss_pct":4.117713681379697,"sample":20,"mean_pct":-0.7503917010929376,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":20,"return_pct":-26.641487433706722,"drawdown_pct":31.341153566635406,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":7.992894749780925,"avg_loss_pct":5.531170426731582,"sample":17,"mean_pct":-1.55350419834555,"quarter_Kelly":0}]. No bestsetting transferredtoholdout. 20000 iid bootstrap means of2026baselineclosedreturns, numpyseed2026090904:95%CI [-2.5336899222192355,1.772706274444286]%. SmallN,oneindustryandselectedfirms;notindependentheliumexperiments,no causalregressionclaimed. Baselineexpectancynegative andCIcrosses0 => quarterKelly0. Do not infer absentbullishfundamentals fromfailedmomentum.

Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Frozen1346 traininggrid lookback10/20/40 x hold5/10/20, costs20bps/side. All9 LIN rows [{"lookback":10,"hold":5,"return_pct":-19.761600491296278,"drawdown_pct":26.86489961989773,"win_rate_pct":52.85714285714286,"avg_win_pct":1.532830878354117,"avg_loss_pct":2.3156834111566207,"sample":70,"mean_pct":-0.28146871527237377,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":10,"hold":10,"return_pct":-2.912028394204244,"drawdown_pct":19.28402721535206,"win_rate_pct":47.16981132075472,"avg_win_pct":2.7030053392487616,"avg_loss_pct":2.4206664814486025,"sample":53,"mean_pct":-0.003840150930977718,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":10,"hold":20,"return_pct":-1.036877826513628,"drawdown_pct":26.654842999112617,"win_rate_pct":60.60606060606061,"avg_win_pct":3.331932570544688,"avg_loss_pct":4.850445775259767,"sample":33,"mean_pct":0.10857140401566011,"quarter_Kelly":0.008146278602354146},{"lookback":20,"hold":5,"return_pct":-18.02368435876111,"drawdown_pct":24.980144386774196,"win_rate_pct":40.74074074074074,"avg_win_pct":1.872858924095059,"avg_loss_pct":1.845033160628845,"sample":54,"mean_pct":-0.33033638537095816,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":20,"hold":10,"return_pct":-12.662756189904432,"drawdown_pct":22.52394542725973,"win_rate_pct":48.717948717948715,"avg_win_pct":2.553488553158216,"avg_loss_pct":2.978894876056644,"sample":39,"mean_pct":-0.2836311541314559,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":20,"hold":20,"return_pct":8.389243229303593,"drawdown_pct":23.896852489390476,"win_rate_pct":53.84615384615385,"avg_win_pct":3.6622047255392145,"avg_loss_pct":3.3403941365876424,"sample":26,"mean_pct":0.43023601994220384,"quarter_Kelly":0.029370014252743354},{"lookback":40,"hold":5,"return_pct":-24.8045615311039,"drawdown_pct":26.35194725586044,"win_rate_pct":47.5,"avg_win_pct":1.6330023678314198,"avg_loss_pct":2.7396028960037437,"sample":40,"mean_pct":-0.6626153956820408,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":10,"return_pct":-20.220479273479086,"drawdown_pct":23.079559623208034,"win_rate_pct":38.70967741935484,"avg_win_pct":3.223911540552905,"avg_loss_pct":3.094754031539854,"sample":31,"mean_pct":-0.6488189713749147,"quarter_Kelly":0},{"lookback":40,"hold":20,"return_pct":-3.251482795766096,"drawdown_pct":25.52943551982135,"win_rate_pct":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":2.9616269437458063,"avg_loss_pct":5.889807921806323,"sample":21,"mean_pct":0.011148655228429323,"quarter_Kelly":0.000941092129443627}]. No bestsetting transferredtoholdout. 20000 iid bootstrap means of2026baselineclosedreturns, numpyseed2026090904:95%CI [-2.428616473299495,1.2897623350910392]%. SmallN,oneindustryandselectedfirms;notindependentheliumexperiments,no causalregressionclaimed. Baselineexpectancynegative andCIcrosses0 => quarterKelly0. Do not infer absentbullishfundamentals fromfailedmomentum.

Premises1 fixed DRI holdout N6 has cash-basis p=.5, W3.216773%, L1.314447%, mean0.951163%; mean95%bootstrap CI[-.828497,2.966011]%. Bootstrap82.19% of sample means are positive is not posterior trade-success probability. 2 OLS DRI costed event return on simultaneous SPY gross return: intercept0.161299%, beta-1.272867, correlation-.730141; conventional small-sample t95% intercept[-2.35749,2.68008] and beta[-2.92652,.380785]. NetDRI minusgrossSPY mean1.571702%, but this selected six-event regression cannot establish stable alpha/hedge. 3 Standard binary-payoff quarterKelly=.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L))=.073922; conservative uncertainty gate sets operational fraction0. 4 Queried own ledger three losses, mean-16.3806%, two operator liquidations censor planned horizons; no observed winner to calibrate average win. RARE gap loss45.86%,6.44listed-stopR demonstrates stops are not hard loss bounds. Source event observations16251–74, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . Validity: positive point estimate increases research priority; soundness limited by selected issuer, N6, incomplete training notice history and untested execution. Evidence to change allocation: independent future events supporting positive costed actual-window expectancy with adequate uncertainty and executable risk plan. Monthly shortfall is not an input.

1. Frozen managed252/1.5R2021–25holdout301trades:win35.8804%,W1.154196%,L.913672%,mean-.171713%;6bp/side portfolio-6.455432%/DD7.243026%. 2. NumPyseed9090200,20000circular3-monthblockbootstrap samples wholemonths jointly acrossassets,usingpooledsum/count so correlated ETF outcomes are not independent observations. 95%meanCI[-.314774,-.030477]% pertrade;16bp/side mean-.371170%,CI[-.514338,-.228008]%. 3. Monthlyregression againstequal-initial-weight8ETFbuyhold:managedbeta.041989,alpha-.136128%/month,HAC3lag t=-2.62162,R2.04850;stressalpha-.257074%,t=-4.58224. Buyhold42.4684% gross over5years,not matched risk. 4. Parent19.21533% costed/3.57774%CAGR,meanCI[-.038505,.903911]%;stress10.05885%/1.93539%CAGR,CI[-.237810,.702467]%. Parentpositive total doesnotestablish alpha ormanagededge. All12managedsweepcellsnegative,not independent12tests. Validity conditionaloncollectedadjustedprices/laggedsignals; soundnesslimitedbyreusedhistoricalera,proxyassets,actualfillunknown andindependentsleevedrift. Own3operatorliquidationsp1/3,avgwin7.93994%/loss5.26143%,mean-.86097%,cannotcalibrateplanned4–6weekexits orslippage withnoquote benchmarks. Prior skepticism strengthened for this adaptation; would change only withnewpredeclaredindependentpositive netevidence andactualexecution. Sources archivedQTR9090200diagnostics.json,trend.py; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1. Own ledger crypto trade10 only: bought81614.80 sold81548.70, rawprice return-.0809902%, operatorliquidation after~48minutes; no closedwins, no thesisstop/target event, no contemporaneousquote benchmark to estimate slippage. Sample1 cannotestimateentrywinprobability or averagewin. 2. Legacy selected1112 UNI breakout p31/61=.5081967, meanwin5.26321%/loss6.76089%, expectancy-.65028%, break-even56.22782%, clippedquarterKelly0. This is rejected prior strategy, not estimated payoff for newETF/USDCflows. Newflowedge remainsunknown, henceapprovedsize0. 3. Current02:02quotedBTC/ETH recoveryhurdles.5254/.5327% from(ask/bid)/.9975^2-1 at25bpcreditedassetfeeseachleg; SOL.6046%,HYPE.9759%. Topquote~79/83USD BTC/ETHcannotassumecap212.7475fillsatonespread. 4. Sixtycompleted dailylogreturn correlationsBTCETH.879334,BTCSOL.824632,ETHSOL.817307; annualizedsqrt365vol38.9248/57.0439/51.9245%. Commonriskmeans threepositionsnotthreeindependentbets. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; query_trades fundcrypto trade10. Premises supportnoquantifiededge, not forecastnegativefutureprices. Changingflowcontext would moveprior onlyafterprospectiveentry-conditionedreturns clearcosts; no arbitraryBayesianprobabilityupdate.

1. USdirectory13156; compatible12612,returned12574,validpairs12291;freshnonETF>=2USD/IEXvolume>=100k3297,positive1112,median-.808625%,p10-3.832307%,p902.646877%. https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqtraded.txt and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . RawcorporateactionoutlierTANHexcluded;specialformats544andmissingbarsnotzero.2. Chosentickersnotrandom; matched171dailylogreturns2026againstSPY OLS {"N":171,"correlation":{"SEI":{"SEI":1,"LEU":0.4534580752106448,"HUT":0.5170706155170518,"SPY":0.44460872155712183},"LEU":{"SEI":0.4534580752106448,"LEU":1,"HUT":0.5617033585086139,"SPY":0.49933353717584955},"HUT":{"SEI":0.5170706155170518,"LEU":0.5617033585086139,"HUT":1,"SPY":0.5163345284131221},"SPY":{"SEI":0.44460872155712183,"LEU":0.49933353717584955,"HUT":0.5163345284131221,"SPY":1}},"ols":{"SEI":{"intercept_daily_bps":0.8379954930556607,"beta":2.6328984447688817,"r2":0.19767691528465836,"RV_pct":79.18369309443283},"LEU":{"intercept_daily_bps":-39.521985731763706,"beta":3.3476188946487597,"r2":0.24933398134854579,"RV_pct":89.64475763843447},"HUT":{"intercept_daily_bps":16.621200772015694,"beta":4.018255674294209,"r2":0.2666013452316012,"RV_pct":104.06052708098987}}}.3. Paircorrelations.453–.562: differentbottlenecks donotguaranteeportfoliodiversification. Soundness:current-survivorselection,priceonlyOLS,noHACorcausalidentification. HUTpositiveinterceptnotstatisticalalpha. HoldoutCIsseparately1312–1322allfail; noedge transferfrombroadmovements. USscreenalllistingattemptnotcompleteinstrumentcoverage; global19nonUSnames+Brent+BTC/ETH and10venuecryptopairsaretargetedwatchlists,notglobalcensus.

Premise1. Frozen costed ledger1302 supplies24 natural closed trades, not optimistically selected wins:5wins19losses,mean-2.204649%,median-6.842921%,10th/90thpercentiles-8.908747/+16.735762%. Premise2. Numpy20000 IIDbootstrapmeans seed2026090900 give95%meaninterval[-5.888270,+1.969444]%; upperpositive is a counterexample to claiming everypossibleedge disproven, not evidence for an entry. Premise3. Matched daily2025–Sep8returnsASPI/SPY N421 Pearsoncorr.393117,OLSslopewithintercept2.443695 computed covariance/variance. Descriptive beta exposes market-risk confounding; does not estimate event alpha or customer acceptance. Observational sample excludes prelisting dates and intraday/overnight executable prices; selected historical holdout not untouched prospective. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Our own supply ledger has onlytwo operator-liquidation winners and no observed loss distribution; cannot replace these strategy-conditioned samples. Conclusion valid zero allocation to frozen rule, not certainty truefuturemeannegative. Soundness limited smallsample/dependence/nonstationarity/assumedcosts. No retuning.