Stats

1 The frozen six-event holdout1997 has barrier mean-1.61159%,95% empirical bootstrap interval[-6.34633,3.30274]%; 50,000 samples, NumPy seed2026091004. Small same-issuer observations and reused market periods limit independence; no population FDA hazard or post-Sobi probability inferred. 2 Time-only net returns compared with identical SPY windows: mean excess-4.10849 percentage points, correlation.401166,OLSbeta1.621565/intercept-5.07762% perwindow. Six observations are descriptive, not a stable factor model. No selection/refit follows these coefficients. 3 New ordinary shares17,647,059 versus94,084,210 prior total yields18.75666% share-count increase; existing ownership falls15.79420% after111,731,269 total. EUR2.4m issuance costs/30m gross=8%; net27.6m. Rates and totals are different concepts. 4 Live Catalyst ledger has3losses,2operator-censored exits; no observed mean winner. Therefore quarterKelly clipped0 under tested payoff and undefined for newfundingregime. Strong countercase financing changes the distribution; requires independent observations, not treating narrative as measured edge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Premises1 CompleteUTCdaysbefore2025Jul13:N284BTC/285ETH/285SOL,all daily/hourlycloses differ>.01bp;afterN423/422/421only6/1/0differ. Premeans signed+.2113/+.2575/-.0432bp,rangeBTC[-8.2231,9.4753],ETH[-9.2208,9.0230],SOL[-11.5241,9.8573].2 July12minutecontrolBTC/SOLdailyclosematcheslastminuteopen,ETHprecedingminuteclose;consistentwithdifferentupdateconventions butnotprovedcausal.3 SeparatelyNov23–Dec18tencommonOHLCanomalydates,largeDec2opensandvolumeshortfall,repeatedfetchunchanged. Conclusion separate smallhistoricalcloseconstruction from large late2025baranomalies;recentpasscannotvalidateoldhistory. Soundness:posthocbreakpoint,multipledependentassets,non-randomdates,noformalcausalidentification;allthreeAlpacafrequenciesoneorigin,CoinbaseindependentonlyDec2. Validity: directcomparisons refute exactequivalence;do notclaimwhichvendorcomponentfailed. July13isnotatradingsignal. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-crypto-data-1 . Boundedproviderforumsearchreturnedstockissues,notcryptoexplanation;absenceofdocumentationisnotproofnoneexists.

Premise1:70completedSIPadjustment=all dailybars Jun1-Sep9, no missingpagination, 69returns https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SSL&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Pythonpandas simpledailyreturnmean.2463%,median.6102%,SD3.3649%,p05-4.5143/p95+5.0489; Pearsonreturn/logvolume.02855,absreturn/(high-low)/close .23503. Descriptive selectedregime, no causalregression orindependententryedge. Premise2:3annualcompanyobservations FY24-26 showNatref17.8/14.7/25.8m bbl andmargins18.13/5.76/25.10, butFY25twomonthfire, FY26Praxaccess andmacrochangeconfoundbeforeafter (https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm). Decomposition6.9/11.1=62.16%access,remaining4.2m growthdoesnotestimateoutagebenefit. Conclusion do not regress3aggregatepointsorcall70currentbars independentalpha; nextstudy needsprospective paidvolume/cash observationswithmatchedoperatingcontrol. Missing dailyNatrefoutput/localjetnetbacks prevent matching; no invented correlationswiththoseunobservedseries.

P1 Fixed monthly mix earns39.6058% over2020–25 (5.7224%annualized), but72monthly observations have mean0.4861% and circular3monthblock95%CI[-0.0238,0.9909]%. P2 Regression on same-universe passive monthly returns gives beta0.4087, intercept0.1220%/month, HAC3SE0.1428%, t0.854. Reduced market exposure, not established independent alpha, plausibly explains drawdown improvement. This is not a full factor regression. P3 The mandatory swing adaptation's1239 trades have mean-0.14538%; IID95%CI[-0.22257,-0.06877]% becomes[-0.35574,0.07246]% when resampling72whole entry-month clusters. Related ETFs do not create1239independent trials. P4 Last63daily EWY/EWT correlation0.8139, EWY/SMH0.8858, EWT/SMH0.8915. Counterexample: broad long-horizon diversification can still improve risk-adjusted returns; do not claim alltrendfollowingfails. Soundness limited by currentETFsurvivors,reusedera,shorttraining,feeassumptions. Conclusion: preserve monthly research; reject current swing allocation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; AQR methodology https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf .

Premise1: NasdaqTrader nasdaqlisted+otherlisted census13160 non-test listing records https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt . RecentSIP403; IEX snapshots recovered12581,12300usablepairs,8083datedSep9;579uncovered and281invalidbarpairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . Premise2: price>=2, IEX close*volume>=1m, nonETF gives2062, allSep9. 479advance,1577decline,6flat; returnmedian-1.0509%,5/95percentiles-5.1576/+2.0593%; medianrange2.4965%. Pearson(absreturn,range)=.76798; Spearman=.61738, descriptive/mechanically related not forecasting evidence. Premise3:leadersSUNE88.125%,FTK14.671%,SSL9.549%,SKHY7.210% generated primary investigation; biotech/retail/software lacked identified supplycashlink. Conclusion discovery only, not a backtested alpha or exhaustive fundamental review. Namekeywords miss disguised businesses, IEXfilter undercounts true liquidity, currentlisting survival/NA parsing/specialsymbol exclusions remain. First-ring price winners pointed to financing and approvals in outer structure, rather than sufficient scarcity evidence.

Premise1 OLS on252latest matched daily adjustedreturns: EPM alpha-.243994%/day,SPYbeta.045827,XLEbeta1.011687,R2.275285; IPHAalpha-.003762%,SPYbeta1.634852,XLEbeta.171132,R2.043649. These are contemporaneous descriptive coefficients, no causal/event prediction or significance claimed. Premise2 fresh6393securities,6389two-dayreturns Sep8–9 median-.88665%,p05-6.9450,p95+3.5162. Universe currentlist survival/identifier/missingbar biases persist; preferred/warrants can remain. Premise3 own3closedtrades0wins mean-16.380601%,twooperatorliquidations; averagewinner undefined so cannot calibrate profitable ownedge. Conclusion no evidence merely being affordable/beta-exposed creates preeventalpha. Countercase company-specific news can overwhelm sector; need independently costed event sample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=1Day ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; listing URLs19164. Distinguish6eventholdout positive pointestimate fromuncertainty inrecorded backtest; no pooledcrossfundodds.

Premises1 CompletedSep9all8close>SMA50andnegative3dayreturn;potentialentriescorrelated.2 OLS2026simpledailyreturnonBTCwithintercept,N252(exceptHYPE204sinceFeb18): ETHbeta1.2533 R2.8318;SOL1.2037/.7733;XRP1.2359/.7560;LINK1.1832/.7324;LTC.8545/.6405;UNI1.1902/.4350;HYPE1.1340/.2724.3 BTCcorrelationsrange.5219HYPEto.9121ETH;HYPEdailyintercept+.5064%notriskadjusteddeployablealpha,shortselectedhistoryandnonstationarity. Conclusiondonotcount8concurrentsignalsas8independentconfirmations. ValidityR2describessamplelinearmarketco-movement,notfuturehedgeratio. Soundnessonevenue,presentmembership,non-normalreturnsandstructuralchange;notcausality. Requireindependentcostedtradeexpectancyandjointdrawdownbeforedollarallocation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises1 OKX100settled8hfundingobservations Aug8–Sep10UTC, meansBTC.60409bp ETH.62436bp SOL.28588bp;2 SOLlatest-.9099475bp below5thpercentile-.7279581bp,but34/100negativevsBTC5/ETH4;3 oneexchangefundingregimedoesnotmeasureglobalspeculationorAlpacasupply. Sumover100intervalsBTC60.40925bp ETH62.43565bp SOL28.58792bp, historicalperpfinancingonly; noannualizationorpromisedrate. SOLbelowp05lookscontrarianbutthelatestvalueispartofthis100pointwindow, notprospectiveindependenttest. Nojointfunding-priceholdouttrainedhere; priorpriceedgefails. Newhypothesistoallowfutureprospectivecollection,butallocation0. Counterexamplepersistentnegativefundingduringdowntrendcanprecedefurtherlosses;fundingcancorrectwithoutspotrally. Validitythresholdclassifiesextremeunderlocalempiricaldistribution; soundnessselection/serialdependence/33daywindowandchangesinOIdefinitionlimitprediction. Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest .

P1 Fixed positive-EAR AVAV rule has9holdout trades, not enough to precisely estimate mean: daily five-session managed mean2.0060%, IID95%CI[-.8066,4.6100]%, year-clusterCI[-.1383,5.3758]% across5years. Fifteen-minute approximation mean2.52996%, CI[-.78743,5.51668]%; sharedsameevents, not independent corroboration. P2 All19complete holdout20session outcomes regress excessreturnonEAR: slope-.026049,stderr.288890,r=-.021864,p=.929206; lowpower,no fullfactoralpha. P3 Parent20return66.72% is concentrated in2025+91.67%; other years mixed. P4 Own3operator-liquidated trades p1/3,avgwin7.93994%,avgloss5.26143%,mean-.860974%,clippedquarterKelly0; censoring prevents intended-horizon inference. Strongcounterargument is positive cost-stressed daily/intraday point estimates; they deserve prospectivewatch, not forcedzero arithmetic. Quant's old IBSfailure doesnotdisproveAVAV. Soundness limited by single-name news selection, reusedmarketera,N9/5clusters,fees assumptions andunobservedtails; no claim rigorous confidence aftermultiplefamilysearch. Source observations18718/18740/18842/18844 and https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises1 Pearson completed2026dailyreturncorr .9121BTCETH/.8794BTCSOL/.8794ETHSOL computedpandas; onevenue pricehistory, notcausality.2 Fixedrule basehourly meansBTC-.594089%ETH-.625851%SOL-.470864%,N91/92/91; 10000IIDtradebootstrap95meanCIsBTC[-.996055,-.028073],ETH[-1.195468,.220810],SOL[-1.244164,.670137].3 SOLdailywinnerN21mean+.560133CI[-2.646168,4.822665] andtrainreturn-31.6853%; positivepointestimate not robustedge.4 4/36OOSpositivecells allSOLdaily20/3or30/5 at2costs; cells correlated, not36 independenttrials. Conclusion diversificationcannotrepairnegativeestimatedmeans; noincrementalcapital. Validity weightednegativeexpectancies remainnegative absentnewmechanism; soundnesslimitedbyserialdependence, survivorship, feeapproximation andsmalldailyN. IIDCI optimistic if clustering; blockbootstrap simulation separately addresses localdependence butnotregimes. Priorcash unchanged, independentprospectivepositivecoststressedentrysample plus15minexits would moveeligibility; rallyalonewouldnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Allmeasuredcells observations18659–66.

Premises1 AVAV fixed20/10 costed holdout1815 N6 wins2 mean12.262667%,avgwin60.104538%,avgloss11.658268%; bootstrap10000 samplemeans seed910 CI[-13.556222,44.997251]%.2 FRO frozen1784/456 N41 wins17 mean.530247%,CI[-.874362,1.958541]% remains unchanged; no new independent FROtrial. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .3 Own ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev has2operator-liquidation winners/no measuredloss; exits are censored by operator and cannot calibrate stop-target success. Conclusion approvedsize0. Positive means strongest counterargument, but intervals spanzero and samples fail regime robustness. IIDbootstrap understates dependence and selection risk; not a market probability forecast. Need prospectively frozen strategy returns and larger comparable independent samples, not repeated reads.

Numbered premises:1 queried ledger and NumPy calculation18633 show three losses, mean-16.380601%, no average winner, two operator liquidations; not an unbiased strategy sample.2 reused AVO1270/1158 chronological costed holdoutN6 p.5,W1.318443%,L3.743633%,expectancy-1.212595%,return-7.331815%,DD9.371961%; quarterKelly recomputed max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0.3 frozen LOVE1789 N10 stress-2.341352% and CHWY N6-1.719988% remain separate from LOVE prospectiveN1+1.211948%. Conclusion size0. Valid under required edge gate; soundness limited small selected samples, censoring and historical execution proxies. Counterexample: future independent sample may validate a different rule, but cannot rescue current p/W/L. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new historical backtest or fit claimed.

P1 Original backtest1642 reread, not rerun: 2021–25 holdout252 after2016–20train, cashmean-.094356461%,p45.634920635%,W.490801991%,L.585547862%,return-21.631824%,DD25.206217%;stress-52.657075%. P2 Own three operator-liquidated trades recomputed p1/3,W7.939941%,L5.261432%,mean-.860974%; intended4–6week horizons censored, quote benchmarks absent so slippage/stop-hit odds unidentified. P3 max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0 for both. Counterexample2026extensionN28+2.31% exists but stress-3.26% and cannot replace holdout. Conclusion zero allocation; no clinical-response proportion transferred to stock win rate. Observation18615; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and query_trades fund=quant.

Reuse1677/1777; no fit. LOVEcoststressN10p.2,W10.702374%,L2.753813%,compound-2.341352%,DD12.985803%,mean-.0625755%,95%meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%,quarterKelly0. CHWY N6p.5 W4.523391%L4.828695%,compound-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,negativeKellyclipped0. PremiseN1prospectiveLOVE+1.211948%stress is insufficient independent evidence; no pooledrecalibration. Own3closed0wins includes2operatorliquidations and hasundefinedaveragewinner. Conclusion no quantifiedpositiveexecutableedge,allocation0. Counterexample largerpredeclaredcostedindependentholdout could support risk; smallselectedsamplesdo notproveuniversalnegativeedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst; existing recordedCLI1688andvectorbt1677 remainrejected, no retest needed forstanddown.

Numbered premises:1 Saved costed backtest456/analysis1764 N41 wins17 avgwin5.46270406% avgloss2.96357664% from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2 Python recomputation mean .530247064878%, raw quarterKelly .024266693704; saved meanCI[-.874362,1.958541]% crosses0.3 Supply ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev has two operator-liquidation winners and no observed loser; cannot estimate own average loss or comparable stop/target execution edge. Conclusion approved size0. Valid under existing uncertainty gate; positive point mean is counterargument, not independent proof. Selection/regime and small-sample risk limit soundness. Repeated reads are not41 more observations. Preserve prior technical1702/indicators1631/simulation1630/backtest456; no new fit, backtest, quote or MonteCarlo in trading run. Existing costed holdout remains basis for rejection; no need to refit after unchanged issuer source.

Reuse1753/original38/1677; no new fit or backtest. CHWY chronologicalN6 p.5 W4.523391% L4.828695%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614; PythonquartercapitalKelly(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224067 clipped0. LOVErequiredexitsN10basep.3 W7.292817% L2.929065%return-.368512%DD12.286896;stressp.2 W10.702374% L2.753813%return-2.341352%,meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Ownledger3closed0wins,2censoredoperatorliquidations,averagewinnerundefined. NewLOVEpaperunfinished cannot update distribution. Selection/smallN limit inference; neither universalnegativeedge nor crediblepositiveedge established. Independent predeclared costed holdout with15min/gapawareexits would change allocation; a currentgreenmark doesnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

P1 Original1642 reread: train2016–20,holdout2021–25,252trades,-21.631824%,DD25.206217%,p45.634921%,cashW.490802%/L.585548%,mean-.09435646%; stress-52.657075%. P2 Extension2026N28+2.31% loses3.26%stress and cannot replace holdout. P3 OwnN3 operatorliquidations p1/3,W7.93994%/L5.26143%,mean-.860974%; censoredhorizons andmissingquote benchmarks prevent exit/slippage inference. Both clippedquarterKelly0. No newbacktest/refit; keepallocation0. Counterexample recentpositiveextension is real but insufficient independent evidence. Source original1642 and query_trades fund=quant; observations18585.

Python reused1744/backtest456, notnewtrials: N41,p17/41=.414634,avgwin5.46270406%,avgloss2.96357664%,expectancy.530247064878%,rawquarterKelly.024266693704,CI[-.874362,1.958541]% https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .Savedcostedreturn20.24256512%,drawdown24.4194659%; CI gate fails, approved0. Twoledgeroperator-liquidationwinners no average loss https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .Python EIA estimates AugustminusJuly1.74mbd/+34.939759%;August6.72*31=208.32m barrels shutin; forecastQ4draw1.7*92=156.4m https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf .Totals conditional/estimated, notlosttankerrevenue. Technical1702/indicators1631/simulation1630 retained as priorwork, no fresh indicators or MonteCarlo. Tradingrun uses existing analysis; no refit/newbacktest warranted by unchanged rejected rule.

P1 Original1642 re-read, not rerun: frozen2016–20train/2021–25holdout, IBS<=.2 nextopen1ADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose,fee1bp+slip5bpsside,vectorbt cashcurvereconciled. Holdout252,-21.631824%,DD25.206217%,p45.634921%,cashW.490801991%,L.585547862%,mean-.094356461%; stress-52.657075%. P2 2026extensionN28+2.31%base/-3.26%stress cannot replace holdout. P3 query_trades threeoperatorliquidations p1/3,W7.93994%,L5.26143%,mean-.860974%; censored4–6weektheses, no slippagebenchmarks. Both clippedquarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0. Conclusion allocation0 valid under gate; soundness conditional on cost/data assumptions, not proof allquantfails. Clinicalresponses and intradaymoves not independentstockwinprobability. Need untouched matchedclinicalpanel/costedactualexits to change decision. Obs18550/18558; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and query_trades fund=quant.

Read1733/1736 and original-study summaries38/1677/1678/1688; no identicalrerun. CHWY chronologicalN6 p.5 avgwin4.523391% avgloss4.828695%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%; PythonfractionKellycapital=(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224067 clipped0. Prospectivepre-eventCHWY N1 -2.687668%keptseparate. LOVErequiredexitsN10basep.3 W7.292817% L2.929065% return-.368512%,DD12.286896%;stressp.2 W10.702374% L2.753813%,return-2.341352%,mean-.062576%,meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Selectedtimeonlypositive result not executableedge. Ownledgerrecomputedfrom3fills0wins,avg loss16.3806011337%,avgwinnerundefined;2operatorliquidations censorintent. Samplingselected/small; cannotproveuniversalnegativeedge. Credible independentnetmean withactual15minexits would moveallocation above0 subjectcaps, today'snewsdoesnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; observations18565 and original analyses38/1677.

1. Saved1725/backtest456 provides41 holdout trades,17wins,meanwin5.46270406%,meanloss2.96357664%,costedreturn20.24256512%,drawdown24.4194659% https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2. Python recomputes expectancy.530247064878%,rawquarterKelly2.42666937%; savedmeanCI[-.874362,1.958541]% crosseszero. Same historical sample; not41newtrades.3. query_trades fund=supply two closed operator-liquidation winners only https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev ; no empirical average loss or planned-exit success estimate.4. Census roundedtransport figures imply19.497431bnq/q and44.008370bny/y gains; BLStransport/allprivatecomp premium6.333973% is cross-sectional, notinflation https://www.census.gov/services/qss/qss-current.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.t04.htm .Conclusion allocation0. Truepositiveedge possible, but new macro print adds no independent return sample. Prior technical1702/indicators1631/simulation1630 retained as historical, not current recalculation. No fresh regression,MonteCarlo or backtest warranted for unchanged rejected rule on tradingrun.

1 Originalbacktest1642re-read,reusedNOT rerun: frozen2016–20train/2021–25holdout; IBS<=.2nextopen,1ADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose;fee1bp+slip5bpsside. EEM252holdoutreturn-21.6318%,DD25.2062%,p45.6349%,cashavgwin.490802%,loss.585548%,quarterKelly0;16bpssidestress-52.6571%. All8main/all72stresscellsnegative per1690. 2 Recomputequery_tradesIDs9/7/1:N3p1/3,avgwin7.93994%,loss5.26143%,mean-.860974%; quarterKellymax(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0. Operatorliquidationscensor4–6weektheses; noidentifiedslippageorstop/targethitrates. 3 ClinicalN14/N5andthreestocksselectedforeventsarenotstockwinprobability. Neitherpositive2026extension(base2.31%,stress-3.26%N28)norIRDtoday canreplacefailedholdout. Newuntouchedindependentclinicalpricepanelwithexactentries/costs/exitscouldmoveallocation; onepricecannot. Sources query_trades fund=quant ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Obs18528.

1. Read original backtests38,1677/78,1688 andqueriedownledger. CHWY chronologicalholdoutN6 p=.5 W=.04523391 L=.04828695,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%; PythonquarterKellycapital(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224,clipped0. Prospective pre-event N1 -2.687668%remainsseparate. 2. LOVE1677N10 basep30%,W7.292817%,L2.929065%,return-.368512%,DD12.286896%; stressp20%,W10.702374%,L2.753813%,return-2.341352%,mean-.062576%,CI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Selectedtimeonlygaincannotvalidate requiredexits; all CIs cross0.3. Own0/3wins,meanloss16.380601%,avgwinnerundefined,2operatorliquidations censorhorizon. Strongestcounterexample smallsamplecannotproveallfutureedgesnegative; conclusioniszerojustifiedallocationtoday,notuniversalinefficacy. No rerun of identical rejected backtests or parameter selection fromtoday'sgap. ExistingCLI58/1688diagnosticlimits retained. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; originaldates inanalysis38observations84–101.

Premises:1 Positive independently validated cash expectancy required.2 Frozen1639–1641/1698 daily/hourly/15min rules fail; arithmetic using exact wins35/82,27/61,33/70 and recorded average wins/losses still negative.3 OwnN1 forced liquidation cannot estimate setup edge or execution distribution. Conclusion allocation0. This is arithmetic verification, not new backtest, parameter change or independent data. Already-recorded costed vectorbt holdouts BTC-43.5409%,ETH-32.9637%,SOL-18.7330%; pullback family separately only1–5 OOS trades and rejected. Sampling omissions, serial dependence and cost assumptions limit inference; a future rebound is a counterexample to a bearish prediction, not to the absent validated edge. Existing simulation1652 remains sensitivity only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Premises:1. Query readback1697/1702 retains frozenbacktest456 2022–24training/2025–Sep4holdout, fixed next-open20-closebreakout/1ADRstop/2ADRtarget/5sessions with costs; prior CLI audited as mismatched execution proxy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .2. Python arithmetic18511 reproduces17/41wins and .530247%mean,rawquarterKelly2.426669%; confidence interval[-.874362,1.958541]% remains unresolved.3. query_trades supply returned only2 closed operator-liquidation winners; no empirical average loss or planned-exit validation https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .Conclusion approved size0. Positive true expectancy is possible but not established; same two wins do not add an independent sample. Reuse simulation1630/technical1702 limitations without fresh paths: daily bars and fixed-payoff Monte Carlo do not prove15-minute execution. No new backtest, parameter sweep or claimed current price. Requires independent prospective costed evidence to change gate.