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1524 backtests, newest first
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0.02, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18733. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return56.94
drawdown40.22
win rate50
sample8
average win pct29.57
average loss pct11.97
mean pct8.8
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-7.76
CI high pct29.34
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0.02, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18732. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return59.47
drawdown39.61
win rate50
sample8
average win pct29.83
average loss pct11.8
mean pct9.01
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.08
CI low pct-7.57
CI high pct29.6
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18731. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return7.39
drawdown0.16
win rate100
sample1
average win pct7.39
average loss pct0
mean pct7.39
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct7.39
CI high pct7.39
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18730. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return7.61
drawdown0.06
win rate100
sample1
average win pct7.61
average loss pct0
mean pct7.61
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct7.61
CI high pct7.61
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18729. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return7.74
drawdown0
win rate100
sample1
average win pct7.74
average loss pct0
mean pct7.74
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct7.74
CI high pct7.74
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18728. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return8.94
drawdown0.16
win rate100
sample1
average win pct8.94
average loss pct0
mean pct8.94
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct8.94
CI high pct8.94
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18727. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return9.15
drawdown0.06
win rate100
sample1
average win pct9.15
average loss pct0
mean pct9.15
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct9.15
CI high pct9.15
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18726. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return9.29
drawdown0
win rate100
sample1
average win pct9.29
average loss pct0
mean pct9.29
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct9.29
CI high pct9.29
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.1368683772161603e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18725. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.48
drawdown17.48
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.48
mean pct-7.48
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.48
CI high pct-7.48
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18724. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.3
drawdown17.39
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.3
mean pct-7.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.3
CI high pct-7.3
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18723. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.19
drawdown17.35
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.19
mean pct-7.19
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.19
CI high pct-7.19
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18722. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.67
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.67
mean pct-16.67
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.67
CI high pct-16.67
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18721. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.5
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.5
mean pct-16.5
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.5
CI high pct-16.5
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18720. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.4
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.4
mean pct-16.4
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.4
CI high pct-16.4
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 9.094947017729282e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18719. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return16.57
drawdown8.33
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.55
average loss pct3.7
mean pct1.8
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.1
CI low pct-1
CI high pct4.4
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18718. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.69
drawdown7.87
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.76
average loss pct3.5
mean pct2.01
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.81
CI high pct4.61
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18717. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return19.98
drawdown7.59
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.89
average loss pct3.39
mean pct2.13
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.69
CI high pct4.74
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18716. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return23.21
drawdown8.33
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.53
average loss pct3.7
mean pct2.45
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.69
CI high pct5.39
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18715. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return25.45
drawdown7.87
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.74
average loss pct3.5
mean pct2.66
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.49
CI high pct5.6
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18714. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return26.81
drawdown7.59
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.86
average loss pct3.39
mean pct2.78
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.12
CI low pct-0.37
CI high pct5.73
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18713. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return8.32
drawdown22.95
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.75
average loss pct6.2
mean pct1.1
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.06
CI low pct-3.07
CI high pct5.6
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18712. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return10.28
drawdown22.18
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.96
average loss pct6.01
mean pct1.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-2.88
CI high pct5.81
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18711. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return11.48
drawdown21.71
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.09
average loss pct5.9
mean pct1.43
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-2.76
CI high pct5.94
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 4.547473508864641e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18710. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return63.74
drawdown40.22
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.52
average loss pct11.97
mean pct8.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.08
CI low pct-6.71
CI high pct26.93
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18709. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return66.72
drawdown39.61
win rate55.56
sample9
average win pct24.77
average loss pct11.8
mean pct8.52
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.09
CI low pct-6.52
CI high pct27.18
cost bp side6
actual size0
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