Stats

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":1,"cost_side":0.0016,"era":"train","return":4.107417732996743,"drawdown":-17.218225034732328,"win_rate":46.724890829694324,"sample":458,"avg_win_pct":6.127245541864814,"avg_loss_pct":4.37269942890957,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0.021762976210857238,"annual_return":1.3554802713248826,"mean_daily_pct":0.0062438994733878435,"vol_annual_pct":6.748017945911851,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.23317404901790267,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":1,"cost_side":0.0006,"era":"2026","return":5.012382429286144,"drawdown":-7.574674181060015,"win_rate":49.24242424242424,"sample":132,"avg_win_pct":6.280442394787109,"avg_loss_pct":2.536597203366168,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0.07185508311792244,"annual_return":7.406950751829333,"mean_daily_pct":0.030829205775379467,"vol_annual_pct":10.996816714021016,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.7064735238780646,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":1,"cost_side":0.0006,"era":"holdout","return":36.36335748362374,"drawdown":-22.149942511542143,"win_rate":46.585903083700444,"sample":908,"avg_win_pct":9.162503827786658,"avg_loss_pct":4.319648715577339,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0.05350976760095413,"annual_return":5.308879230893537,"mean_daily_pct":0.022127692070875827,"vol_annual_pct":8.858289669921568,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.6294870239787588,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":1,"cost_side":0.0006,"era":"train","return":6.001736051918716,"drawdown":-16.26793343101984,"win_rate":49.34497816593886,"sample":458,"avg_win_pct":6.009947833548016,"avg_loss_pct":4.4041651817270795,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0.030560856441032208,"annual_return":1.9686418430345132,"mean_daily_pct":0.008632455331399629,"vol_annual_pct":6.736338812907346,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.3229319076624401,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":"mix","cost_side":0.0016,"era":"2026","return":8.888251079859177,"drawdown":-7.631026162380139,"win_rate":58.06451612903226,"sample":62,"avg_win_pct":8.82235778305431,"avg_loss_pct":3.082090991642895,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0.10853588353020575,"annual_return":13.247669551892827,"mean_daily_pct":0.05232670403799543,"vol_annual_pct":11.918541793621799,"sharpe_zero_cash":1.1063710348049043,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":"mix","cost_side":0.0016,"era":"holdout","return":36.825524565378046,"drawdown":-14.409872683671033,"win_rate":38.41961852861036,"sample":367,"avg_win_pct":7.074519959787137,"avg_loss_pct":5.35669065474796,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"annual_return":5.368322138088377,"mean_daily_pct":0.02212872625068005,"vol_annual_pct":8.198855186991967,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.6801484948799642,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":"mix","cost_side":0.0016,"era":"train","return":10.349238469001598,"drawdown":-13.355983762439184,"win_rate":47.29064039408867,"sample":203,"avg_win_pct":4.735582388712451,"avg_loss_pct":4.729103861076892,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"annual_return":3.348791921023997,"mean_daily_pct":0.013932363225214033,"vol_annual_pct":6.6175608914479955,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.5305512998439068,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":"mix","cost_side":0.0006,"era":"2026","return":9.251310250662236,"drawdown":-7.617578268557901,"win_rate":59.67741935483871,"sample":62,"avg_win_pct":8.795296268931436,"avg_loss_pct":3.009210976777107,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0.11470376300089588,"annual_return":13.799758844375987,"mean_daily_pct":0.054258591001023565,"vol_annual_pct":11.909198889710034,"sharpe_zero_cash":1.1481179430189914,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":"mix","cost_side":0.0006,"era":"holdout","return":39.605809154891936,"drawdown":-13.763308556667475,"win_rate":40.87193460490463,"sample":367,"avg_win_pct":6.8500842512898545,"avg_loss_pct":5.386789324735792,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"annual_return":5.722426707693673,"mean_daily_pct":0.023464078784320205,"vol_annual_pct":8.202274437908942,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.7208912477154468,"open_positions":0}

Frozen1720/1721/1724. Fifty predetermined cash ETF sleeves,2016warmup,2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Monthend1/3/12returnminusSHYsigns; mixpositivefraction/3,componentsdiagnostics,no selection; passivefullsleeve. Nextsessionopenmonthlytargetweightwithinindependentlycompoundingsleeves,1bpfees+5/15slippage,finaleraclosecostedliquidation. Vectorbtpositionepisodesaggregatepartialresizes; correlatedpositionsnotIIDedge. Inactivecashzero,expensesembeddedprices. Thisislongcashadaptation,notAQRriskbalancedshortfutures; no mandatoryADRexits henceunapproved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf . Fullmetrics={"family":"monthly","signal":"mix","cost_side":0.0006,"era":"train","return":11.494014788073436,"drawdown":-12.901678278921679,"win_rate":48.275862068965516,"sample":203,"avg_win_pct":4.840300699120874,"avg_loss_pct":4.627932660894346,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"annual_return":3.7061725998846384,"mean_daily_pct":0.01530038404114599,"vol_annual_pct":6.6139347938572834,"sharpe_zero_cash":0.5829656473102491,"open_positions":0}

Premise1:1175 SIP adjustment=all daily bars Jan2022–Sep9'26, no pagination https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IREN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Preregistered1723 before run. Vectorbt longonly close>prior20high and SMA50, nextopen entry; close<prior10low nextopen exit. Fees5bp and slippage10bp each side;30bp stress. Flat at split:2022–24train,2025on holdout. Premise2:training 61.7789%, holdout 102.4264%, drawdown 72.1911%, closedN8, wins25.000%, mean23.4239%, 10000bootstrap95%CI[-17.5992,77.0301]%. Premise3:96 total cells across4symbols,3lookbacks,2exits,2periods,2costs recorded; primary rule frozen, no winner selection. Conclusion no capital: CI crosseszero; trade/sample returns are closed only while portfolio includes marked open lot. Daily channel exits are not venue15min stop/target or+1Rpartial simulation. Currentwinner universe selection, regime shift, corporate-action basis and overlapping exposure limit soundness. Positive return is strongest counterargument, but unvalidated executable expectancy remains binding.

Premise1:1175 SIP adjustment=all daily bars Jan2022–Sep9'26, no pagination https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=ATI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Preregistered1723 before run. Vectorbt longonly close>prior20high and SMA50, nextopen entry; close<prior10low nextopen exit. Fees5bp and slippage10bp each side;30bp stress. Flat at split:2022–24train,2025on holdout. Premise2:training -19.5805%, holdout 114.3957%, drawdown 25.1085%, closedN6, wins50.000%, mean16.6771%, 10000bootstrap95%CI[-1.6939,43.0793]%. Premise3:96 total cells across4symbols,3lookbacks,2exits,2periods,2costs recorded; primary rule frozen, no winner selection. Conclusion no capital: CI crosseszero; trade/sample returns are closed only while portfolio includes marked open lot. Daily channel exits are not venue15min stop/target or+1Rpartial simulation. Currentwinner universe selection, regime shift, corporate-action basis and overlapping exposure limit soundness. Positive return is strongest counterargument, but unvalidated executable expectancy remains binding.

Premise1:1175 SIP adjustment=all daily bars Jan2022–Sep9'26, no pagination https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SSL&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Preregistered1723 before run. Vectorbt longonly close>prior20high and SMA50, nextopen entry; close<prior10low nextopen exit. Fees5bp and slippage10bp each side;30bp stress. Flat at split:2022–24train,2025on holdout. Premise2:training -54.0393%, holdout 144.1551%, drawdown 22.9576%, closedN7, wins42.857%, mean15.0679%, 10000bootstrap95%CI[-4.1565,44.1486]%. Premise3:96 total cells across4symbols,3lookbacks,2exits,2periods,2costs recorded; primary rule frozen, no winner selection. Conclusion no capital: CI crosseszero; trade/sample returns are closed only while portfolio includes marked open lot. Daily channel exits are not venue15min stop/target or+1Rpartial simulation. Currentwinner universe selection, regime shift, corporate-action basis and overlapping exposure limit soundness. Positive return is strongest counterargument, but unvalidated executable expectancy remains binding.

Premise1:1175 SIP adjustment=all daily bars Jan2022–Sep9'26, no pagination https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Preregistered1723 before run. Vectorbt longonly close>prior20high and SMA50, nextopen entry; close<prior10low nextopen exit. Fees5bp and slippage10bp each side;30bp stress. Flat at split:2022–24train,2025on holdout. Premise2:training -46.4835%, holdout -63.6175%, drawdown 67.1654%, closedN10, wins30.000%, mean-7.6294%, 10000bootstrap95%CI[-19.2006,5.4067]%. Premise3:96 total cells across4symbols,3lookbacks,2exits,2periods,2costs recorded; primary rule frozen, no winner selection. Conclusion no capital: CI crosseszero; trade/sample returns are closed only while portfolio includes marked open lot. Daily channel exits are not venue15min stop/target or+1Rpartial simulation. Currentwinner universe selection, regime shift, corporate-action basis and overlapping exposure limit soundness. Positive return is strongest counterargument, but unvalidated executable expectancy remains binding.

RanrequiredCLI --strategymean-reversion --lookback20 --entry2 --exit0 --days617. Premises1 engineusescurrentclosesforsignalsandfills,nofees/slippage/noholdout.2 Sevenofeightgrossreturnspositive, largestLINK69.1614%DD11.9156%win73.6842%N19;LTC45.3542%DD12.1012%win80%N20;HYPE14.61285%N2andno2025history.3 Thisisnotfrozentrend-pullbackrule,soresultnotreplicationorparameterselection. BTC-3.257646%DD16.639125win61.1111N18,ETH5.419817%N15,SOL15.553973%N17,XRP36.165798%N19,UNI19.214556%N22. Averagegrosslossmaybefarworsethanwinrateimplies. Rejectdeploymentfromthisdiagnostic;costednextopenindependentdaily/hourlyholdoutsrequired. Allfiguresinobservation19211;latest618barincludespotentialpartialSep10(206HYPE). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local /app/agent/src/backtest/engine.ts andstrategies.ts.

Frozen note1689, same EAR>0 event entries as daily test1851. Actual first09:30 SIP15min open; prior20dailyADR stop1/target1.5, half at+1ADR. Check returned bar close, execute at next observed bar open, activate breakeven after half. Stop/target full exit takes priority if both profit levels surpassed at a sampled check. Provider extended-hours bars retained, no synthetic missing bars; exact venue quote sampling and20:00–04:00 overnight coverage unavailable. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp each side. Vectorbt and cash ledger reconciled per event; stitched event equity includes flat gaps. Nine2021–25events, one2026event separately, no parameter selection. All expected regular15min slots present after July3 2023early close correction; this does not prove complete extended execution. The positive holdout is too imprecise: CI includes zero; marked risk exceeds daily-model risk. No live adoption from N9, no average-trade arithmetic mistaken for monthly opportunity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results .

Frozen note1689, same EAR>0 event entries as daily test1851. Actual first09:30 SIP15min open; prior20dailyADR stop1/target1.5, half at+1ADR. Check returned bar close, execute at next observed bar open, activate breakeven after half. Stop/target full exit takes priority if both profit levels surpassed at a sampled check. Provider extended-hours bars retained, no synthetic missing bars; exact venue quote sampling and20:00–04:00 overnight coverage unavailable. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp each side. Vectorbt and cash ledger reconciled per event; stitched event equity includes flat gaps. Nine2021–25events, one2026event separately, no parameter selection. All expected regular15min slots present after July3 2023early close correction; this does not prove complete extended execution. The positive holdout is too imprecise: CI includes zero; marked risk exceeds daily-model risk. No live adoption from N9, no average-trade arithmetic mistaken for monthly opportunity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results .

Frozen note1689, same EAR>0 event entries as daily test1851. Actual first09:30 SIP15min open; prior20dailyADR stop1/target1.5, half at+1ADR. Check returned bar close, execute at next observed bar open, activate breakeven after half. Stop/target full exit takes priority if both profit levels surpassed at a sampled check. Provider extended-hours bars retained, no synthetic missing bars; exact venue quote sampling and20:00–04:00 overnight coverage unavailable. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp each side. Vectorbt and cash ledger reconciled per event; stitched event equity includes flat gaps. Nine2021–25events, one2026event separately, no parameter selection. All expected regular15min slots present after July3 2023early close correction; this does not prove complete extended execution. The positive holdout is too imprecise: CI includes zero; marked risk exceeds daily-model risk. No live adoption from N9, no average-trade arithmetic mistaken for monthly opportunity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results .

Frozen note1689, same EAR>0 event entries as daily test1851. Actual first09:30 SIP15min open; prior20dailyADR stop1/target1.5, half at+1ADR. Check returned bar close, execute at next observed bar open, activate breakeven after half. Stop/target full exit takes priority if both profit levels surpassed at a sampled check. Provider extended-hours bars retained, no synthetic missing bars; exact venue quote sampling and20:00–04:00 overnight coverage unavailable. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp each side. Vectorbt and cash ledger reconciled per event; stitched event equity includes flat gaps. Nine2021–25events, one2026event separately, no parameter selection. All expected regular15min slots present after July3 2023early close correction; this does not prove complete extended execution. The positive holdout is too imprecise: CI includes zero; marked risk exceeds daily-model risk. No live adoption from N9, no average-trade arithmetic mistaken for monthly opportunity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18739. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18738. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18737. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18736. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 9.094947017729282e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18735. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 4.547473508864641e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18734. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .