Stats

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18708. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18707. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18706. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18705. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.3642420526593924e-12. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18704. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18703. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18702. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 6.821210263296962e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18701. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.3642420526593924e-12. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18700. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18699. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18698. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18697. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18696. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy momentum --lookback3 --days617. BTCreturn-10.948474%DD33.437946%win32.58427%N89;ETHreturn-35.643586%DD62.105551%win28.888889%N90;SOLreturn-39.976039%DD60.750072%win26.373626%N91. Premise1 source engine uses sameclose signals/fills, nofees/slippage;2 CLI isnotnewcombinedSMA+momentumrule anddoesnotholdout;3 resultincludeslatestbars618/617/618potentialpartialcurrentday. Thus diagnosticcannotvalidateanyentry, evenoptimisticgrossscreenloses. Independentnextopenvectorbt fullcompletedbar2025train/2026holdout analyses1813/1816/1817supersedeexecution/evaluationmethod, not claimedexactreplication. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Allfiguresobservation recorded; no selectionfromCLI.

Premises1 rule frozen note1680: close>20daySMA AND3daymomentumpositive; false-to-true enters nextopen, fails exits nextopen; hourly480/72lookbacks.2 vectorbt fees.25%eachside +.10%slippagebaseline/.20%stress; conventionalquote-cashfeeapproximation slightly differscreditedassetfee, not exactledger.3 Train2025, untunedholdout2026Jan1–Sep9, Nov2024warmup; initialcash100reset eachperiod; finalopenliquidation.4 Neighbors15/2,30/5 robustness only, noholdoutselection. Complete slowwindow required; missingbar signal/execution notfilled, onlymarksffill. No stop/target in diagnostic; fails before venue15minexitgate, cannotdeploy. Daily and hourly are separately evaluated rules, not simply executionfrequency changes. Baseline hourly {"s":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-40.237747293565334,"dd":58.59861692215998,"n":91,"win_pct":16.483516483516482,"avg_win":4.780174580657124,"avg_loss":1.5072537357357205,"mean":-0.47086445281382316,"ci":[-1.2441638289493344,0.6701372751429963],"kelly":0}; baseline daily {"s":"SOL","tf":"1Day","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":4.670713408269307,"dd":35.76662929081982,"n":21,"win_pct":28.57142857142857,"avg_win":11.045272425539386,"avg_loss":3.6339227333760706,"mean":0.5601330263140591,"ci":[-2.646168490805578,4.822665397515861],"kelly":0.012678117042611237}. All24cells saved in two preceding observations including training and stress. IID10000tradebootstrap CI diagnostic, serialdependence andselectionlimit inference. Crosscadence/training/cost gatefailure rejects family, not allmomentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Localstudy.py/test_rule.py; priorfailedrules1639–41separate.

Premises1 rule frozen note1680: close>20daySMA AND3daymomentumpositive; false-to-true enters nextopen, fails exits nextopen; hourly480/72lookbacks.2 vectorbt fees.25%eachside +.10%slippagebaseline/.20%stress; conventionalquote-cashfeeapproximation slightly differscreditedassetfee, not exactledger.3 Train2025, untunedholdout2026Jan1–Sep9, Nov2024warmup; initialcash100reset eachperiod; finalopenliquidation.4 Neighbors15/2,30/5 robustness only, noholdoutselection. Complete slowwindow required; missingbar signal/execution notfilled, onlymarksffill. No stop/target in diagnostic; fails before venue15minexitgate, cannotdeploy. Daily and hourly are separately evaluated rules, not simply executionfrequency changes. Baseline hourly {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-46.58474926513336,"dd":53.987082498734054,"n":92,"win_pct":14.130434782608695,"avg_win":4.0765137278853425,"avg_loss":1.3996577647096213,"mean":-0.6258509233646807,"ci":[-1.1954679384912237,0.22081003061163765],"kelly":0}; baseline daily {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-11.422283048844662,"dd":37.73849357987928,"n":26,"win_pct":23.076923076923077,"avg_win":9.73506753974786,"avg_loss":3.2393049982052977,"mean":-0.24521902790841546,"ci":[-2.530345689144061,2.7848788781685805],"kelly":0}. All24cells saved in two preceding observations including training and stress. IID10000tradebootstrap CI diagnostic, serialdependence andselectionlimit inference. Crosscadence/training/cost gatefailure rejects family, not allmomentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Localstudy.py/test_rule.py; priorfailedrules1639–41separate.

Premises1 1002SIPadjusted barsSep12'22–Sep9'26,nextpage null https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 vectorbt1.1 study.py longonly allcash,close>previous20dayhigh entry,nextopen; close<previous10daylow exit,nextopen. Flat each split: train through2024; holdout2025on. Fees5bp/side,slippage10bp and30bp stress. 3 3x2 lookback10/20/40 andexit5/10 sweep disclosed, no selected winner. Fixed20/10 train-24.4721%,DD41.4508%,N10; holdout+50.033%,DD52.0352%,N6,wins2,mean12.2627%,avgwin60.1045%,avgloss11.6583%. Stress+46.4751%,DD52.4173%. 5of6 base trainingcellsnegative; all6holdoutcellspositive butN3–12 with tail dependence. Conclusion no entry: tiny selected-symbol/regime sample, unstable train/holdout, no15min stop-target validation, no event-conditioned edge. Positive holdout is counterargument, not permission to pick40/5. No lookahead in signal shifting; daily nextopen can gap, modeled daily rule not venue exit replication. Frozen now; don't refit against this holdout.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols AVAV --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct3 --target-pct4.5 (actual flags spaced correctly in savedcli.json). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .1002bars,74trades,return72.9481%,DD13.3253%,win47.2973%,avgtrade.79278%,BH40.94047%. Fullsample diagnostic; CLI cost/intrabar assumptions not verified, therefore no trading authorization. Independent vectorbt nextopen study recorded separately uses different explicit channel exits and costs; do not call it a replication of CLI exits or earnings-conditioned edge. Premise attractive aggregate result needs executable holdout; conclusion reject directuse. No test-selected parameter endorsed.

Premises1 rule frozen note1680: close>20daySMA AND3daymomentumpositive; false-to-true enters nextopen, fails exits nextopen; hourly480/72lookbacks.2 vectorbt fees.25%eachside +.10%slippagebaseline/.20%stress; conventionalquote-cashfeeapproximation slightly differscreditedassetfee, not exactledger.3 Train2025, untunedholdout2026Jan1–Sep9, Nov2024warmup; initialcash100reset eachperiod; finalopenliquidation.4 Neighbors15/2,30/5 robustness only, noholdoutselection. Complete slowwindow required; missingbar signal/execution notfilled, onlymarksffill. No stop/target in diagnostic; fails before venue15minexitgate, cannotdeploy. Daily and hourly are separately evaluated rules, not simply executionfrequency changes. Baseline hourly {"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-43.1463036464578,"dd":52.32858719907525,"n":91,"win_pct":9.89010989010989,"avg_win":3.982919197094079,"avg_loss":1.0964439326960234,"mean":-0.5940893374420572,"ci":[-0.9960551179858709,-0.02807263319465789],"kelly":0}; baseline daily {"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-6.241857587794257,"dd":27.17241733513124,"n":24,"win_pct":29.166666666666668,"avg_win":4.808424276608217,"avg_loss":2.2173266040806103,"mean":-0.1681492638797025,"ci":[-1.673508872945616,1.9712994110569761],"kelly":0}. All24cells saved in two preceding observations including training and stress. IID10000tradebootstrap CI diagnostic, serialdependence andselectionlimit inference. Crosscadence/training/cost gatefailure rejects family, not allmomentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Localstudy.py/test_rule.py; priorfailedrules1639–41separate.

Ran required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols LOVE --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 10 . It returns501dailybars,56trades,return-17.85047%,DD44.98827%,win32.14286%,meantrade-.164327%,buyhold-22.94455%. Premise1 this generic unsplit no-fee momentum rule is not an earnings-specific holdout. Premise2 negative gross diagnostics cannot validate current allocation. Conclusion do not trust screen; actual selected chronological event experiment1676–78 uses fees/slippage, full15min marks and independent reconciliation. FirstCLIoutput was display-truncated, exact rerun saved love_cli.json to verify N56; numerical totals unchanged. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex .

Frozen note1432 and parent final-session analysis;16 train/10 chronological holdout, selected LOVE and previously seen periods are not independent validation. Stop=prior20-day mean high-low, target=2 times that range from09:30 open. Test close of each15min bar then nextbar open; mandatory15:45 time exit. Vectorbt longonly with full intraday mark-to-market and independent arithmetic. Fee10bp/side, slip10baseline/20stress. Complete holdout summaries [{"split":"holdout","target_adr":2,"slippage":0.001,"N":10,"return_pct":2.3061591250364,"drawdown_pct":12.286896323116503,"win_rate_pct":30,"avg_win_pct":8.323881359724876,"avg_loss_pct":2.9290647978934232,"mean_pct":0.4468190493920665,"ci95_pct":[-3.1256886538172233,5.171962495796518],"quarterKelly":0.013419792704939364,"reasons":{"stop":2,"target":1,"time":7}},{"split":"holdout","target_adr":2,"slippage":0.002,"N":10,"return_pct":0.2803567657078343,"drawdown_pct":12.985803427389008,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":12.245880459191616,"avg_loss_pct":2.753812985732003,"mean_pct":0.2461257032527209,"ci95_pct":[-3.340832577364086,5.031224389415034],"quarterKelly":0.005024663274986928,"reasons":{"stop":2,"target":1,"time":7}}]. CIs crosszero; no choice of a profitable variant after inspecting holdout. Endpoint prices are bar proxies, not guaranteed executable bids/asks. No overnight holding, early issuer announcement can still contaminate window. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; dated issuer pairs and per-event six variants observations18186–18233. Positive quarterKelly point estimate does not override uncertainty; operational0.

Frozen note1432 and parent final-session analysis;16 train/10 chronological holdout, selected LOVE and previously seen periods are not independent validation. Stop=prior20-day mean high-low, target=1.5 times that range from09:30 open. Test close of each15min bar then nextbar open; mandatory15:45 time exit. Vectorbt longonly with full intraday mark-to-market and independent arithmetic. Fee10bp/side, slip10baseline/20stress. Complete holdout summaries [{"split":"holdout","target_adr":1.5,"slippage":0.001,"N":10,"return_pct":-0.36851170176196435,"drawdown_pct":12.286896323116503,"win_rate_pct":30,"avg_win_pct":7.29281718993607,"avg_loss_pct":2.9290647978934232,"mean_pct":0.13749979845542493,"ci95_pct":[-3.0902695737676433,4.251440175675346],"quarterKelly":0.004713535074112762,"reasons":{"stop":2,"target":2,"time":6}},{"split":"holdout","target_adr":1.5,"slippage":0.002,"N":10,"return_pct":-2.3413519079054312,"drawdown_pct":12.985803427389008,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":10.702374313089402,"avg_loss_pct":2.753812985732003,"mean_pct":-0.06257552596772187,"ci95_pct":[-3.31928278994167,4.05845454942973],"quarterKelly":0,"reasons":{"stop":2,"target":2,"time":6}}]. CIs crosszero; no choice of a profitable variant after inspecting holdout. Endpoint prices are bar proxies, not guaranteed executable bids/asks. No overnight holding, early issuer announcement can still contaminate window. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; dated issuer pairs and per-event six variants observations18186–18233. Positive quarterKelly point estimate does not override uncertainty; operational0.

Premises: (1) Frozen note1432 tests the remaining window, T1 09:30ET open to15:45ET bar open before next-day issuer earnings. Prior notice/release pairs13981–14027 reused; 29 eligible past events after preannouncement exclusions, 3 incomplete early-training days omitted, leaving16 train2019–2023 and10 chronological holdout2024–Jun2026. This is a selected issuer and previously examined era, not fresh independent validation. (2) Vectorbt longonly uses all26 available15min marks per event, 10bp fee+10bp slip per side; arithmetic cash returns agree to1e-8 across12 split/cost/exit variants. Daily2057bars eachLOVE/SPY; missing intraday windows2018Sep12/Dec17,2019Apr29 have22/25/21bars, exclusion bias remains. (3) Time-only train+8.7623%,DD19.8103%; holdout+14.8701%,DD11.2663%,p30%,W9.1616%,L1.6259%,mean1.61035%,bootstrap95%[-1.64573,6.42680]%. Stress20bpslip holdout+12.5955%,p20%. (4) Venue requires stops/targets:1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget holdout-0.3685%,DD12.2869%,stress-2.34135%;2ADRtarget+2.30616%,stress+0.28036%, all CIs crosszero. Each10events;1.5ADR exits2stop/2target/6time. No selecting better target after outcome. Conclusion rejects allocation, not every earnings strategy. Counterargument positive time-only result merits prospective study, but cannot trade without exits or inherit older T5odds. Price source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; issuer upcoming https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference . Each dated notice/release and6variant payoffs recorded18186–18233; summaries18280–18291. Quote history, actualfees, first-news completeness and simultaneous open execution not verified.

Frozen1431; 2026throughSep8extension, not modelselection. Main completedpriorIBS<=.2,nextsessionopenlong,1prior20sessionADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose; adversebarrierfirst. Independent1000USDcashsleeve,vectorbtlongonly andproportional1bpfee+5bpslip eachside,stress1+15; allreturncurves independentlyreconciledandtradecountchecked. All29cells thresholds.1/.2/.3,open/managed/green,0/6/16bps and2buyholds in observations18270,18271,18272,18273,18274. Greenhalf+1ADR thenBE/target onremainder conservativedailyordering; averagedexitmatchesproportionalcostcashbutnotfixedfees/15minwholelot execution. DDsyntheticopen/exitmarksnotfullintraday. vbttrade-return denominator entryvalue excludesentryfee; cashmean=mean/1.0001 forcostedcells. Complete8assetfixeduniverse, all2685dates2016–Sep8; no survivorshipfreeallETFclaim. Sameprotocolinholdout1642–1649; positive train/recentdoesnotqualifyalone. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen1431; 2026throughSep8extension, not modelselection. Main completedpriorIBS<=.2,nextsessionopenlong,1prior20sessionADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose; adversebarrierfirst. Independent1000USDcashsleeve,vectorbtlongonly andproportional1bpfee+5bpslip eachside,stress1+15; allreturncurves independentlyreconciledandtradecountchecked. All29cells thresholds.1/.2/.3,open/managed/green,0/6/16bps and2buyholds in observations18265,18266,18267,18268,18269. Greenhalf+1ADR thenBE/target onremainder conservativedailyordering; averagedexitmatchesproportionalcostcashbutnotfixedfees/15minwholelot execution. DDsyntheticopen/exitmarksnotfullintraday. vbttrade-return denominator entryvalue excludesentryfee; cashmean=mean/1.0001 forcostedcells. Complete8assetfixeduniverse, all2685dates2016–Sep8; no survivorshipfreeallETFclaim. Sameprotocolinholdout1642–1649; positive train/recentdoesnotqualifyalone. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all