Stats

Premise1: preregistered note1827 before results; 2021 warmup,2022-24train,2025-Sep9 2026holdout; SIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=XOM . Premise2: signal previous close>SMA50,3dayreturn<0,20dayreturn>XLE20day; nextopen entry, fifthsubsequentopen exit; nonoverlap; fixed no holdout tuning. Vectorbt fees5bp/slip10bp per side; stress30bp. Trade return denominator entrynotional; divide by1.0005 for investedcash; all independent reconciliation assertions pass. Premise3: no historical shortage labels, survivorship-selected incumbent universe; not causal bottleneck test. Conclusion no approval from isolated favorable holdout; full sensitivity recorded observations REF91006 rows. Cash-only separate fully funded research sleeve, fractional normalized sizing not venue whole-share execution; adjusted prices assume total-return basis rather than literal cash-dividend timing. No greenpartial/15min exits in this test. Train 26.0290%, test -8.8336%, stress -16.1788%. Valid rule simulation; forward soundness unproven.

Premise1: preregistered note1827 before results; 2021 warmup,2022-24train,2025-Sep9 2026holdout; SIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=PSX . Premise2: signal previous close>SMA50,3dayreturn<0,20dayreturn>XLE20day; nextopen entry, fifthsubsequentopen exit; nonoverlap; fixed no holdout tuning. Vectorbt fees5bp/slip10bp per side; stress30bp. Trade return denominator entrynotional; divide by1.0005 for investedcash; all independent reconciliation assertions pass. Premise3: no historical shortage labels, survivorship-selected incumbent universe; not causal bottleneck test. Conclusion no approval from isolated favorable holdout; full sensitivity recorded observations REF91006 rows. Cash-only separate fully funded research sleeve, fractional normalized sizing not venue whole-share execution; adjusted prices assume total-return basis rather than literal cash-dividend timing. No greenpartial/15min exits in this test. Train -9.4516%, test -2.3151%, stress -13.0141%. Valid rule simulation; forward soundness unproven.

Premise1: preregistered note1827 before results; 2021 warmup,2022-24train,2025-Sep9 2026holdout; SIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=MPC . Premise2: signal previous close>SMA50,3dayreturn<0,20dayreturn>XLE20day; nextopen entry, fifthsubsequentopen exit; nonoverlap; fixed no holdout tuning. Vectorbt fees5bp/slip10bp per side; stress30bp. Trade return denominator entrynotional; divide by1.0005 for investedcash; all independent reconciliation assertions pass. Premise3: no historical shortage labels, survivorship-selected incumbent universe; not causal bottleneck test. Conclusion no approval from isolated favorable holdout; full sensitivity recorded observations REF91006 rows. Cash-only separate fully funded research sleeve, fractional normalized sizing not venue whole-share execution; adjusted prices assume total-return basis rather than literal cash-dividend timing. No greenpartial/15min exits in this test. Train -17.6185%, test 20.1209%, stress 6.9647%. Valid rule simulation; forward soundness unproven.

Premise1: preregistered note1827 before results; 2021 warmup,2022-24train,2025-Sep9 2026holdout; SIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=VLO . Premise2: signal previous close>SMA50,3dayreturn<0,20dayreturn>XLE20day; nextopen entry, fifthsubsequentopen exit; nonoverlap; fixed no holdout tuning. Vectorbt fees5bp/slip10bp per side; stress30bp. Trade return denominator entrynotional; divide by1.0005 for investedcash; all independent reconciliation assertions pass. Premise3: no historical shortage labels, survivorship-selected incumbent universe; not causal bottleneck test. Conclusion no approval from isolated favorable holdout; full sensitivity recorded observations REF91006 rows. Cash-only separate fully funded research sleeve, fractional normalized sizing not venue whole-share execution; adjusted prices assume total-return basis rather than literal cash-dividend timing. No greenpartial/15min exits in this test. Train -1.7706%, test 17.2180%, stress 4.3797%. Valid rule simulation; forward soundness unproven.

Premise1: physical distillate tightness forecast https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php . Premise2: VLO purchased-input and integrated-competitor risk https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026011499/vlo-20251231.htm . First order: lost overseas product supply can raise US export realization; transport and fuel customers absorb higher prices. Second order: operating refiners attract feedstock/cargo, bidding up crude, freight, energy and working capital; integrated upstream cash can offset narrower downstream spread. Third order: rerouting, restored facilities and demand response erode the scarcity premium; stock outperformance can precede reported cash. These are conditional economic inferences, not measured causal effects or issuer forecasts. Strongest countercase: ongoing capacity shortage sustains profits longer; does not identify today's stock entry odds. Binding variable delivered incremental margin, not benchmark oil direction; no cross-sector diversification claim without correlation evidence.

Premise1: July30 issuer tables show adjusted post-investment cash proxy4139m from4485-346; Q2 cash capture exists https://investorvalero.com/news/news-details/2026/Valero-Energy-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx . Premise2: purchased feedstock, grade differentials, electricity and logistics costs can compress margins https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026011499/vlo-20251231.htm . Premise3: Sep9 EIA forecast, cutoffSep3, describes tight distillate and eventual normalization https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php . Conclusion: watch viable operating refiners, not blanket oil-shortage beneficiaries. Start: public Q2 cash/current forecast. Goal: paid Q3 incremental margin. Binding constraint: delivered product netback after replacement crude and operating costs. Counterexample1 cash release temporary; use adjusted bridge. Counterexample2 company can hedge; no assumed exact hedge protection. Counterexample3 forecast restoration could fail; do not infer timing certainty. Logical mechanism valid, predictive stock premise unproven. Prior qualitative neutral-to-positive economics, zero calibrated return prior; verified Q3 cash/throughput would strengthen economics without arbitrary probability points. Historical Q2 at annualized rate is not forward earnings. Whole-share affordability and price test remain separate gates.

Premise1: formerjob162stored2000-charoutput hidlastpanels despiteexit0. Premise2: testedreplacement173 retained19sources,addedSSLnews/GCIS,correctedFTKroute https://ir.flotekind.com/presentations?cat=7 . Eachline82chars,sourceURLmapinscript;wrapper3027chars. Premise3: list_jobsfundsupply nowverifiesactualremote04:16:07.918UTCpayload,exit0,21attemptedandfooterwithin1016chars; next05:15:46UTC. https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/natref-operational-update and https://investor.avinc.com/events-and-presentations readable; changedhashnotnewcash. Conclusion coverageintegrityimproved, nottradeconfirmation; allfundamental/pricegatesunchanged,0eligible. PersistentBombardierchallenge/CENTCOMHTTPErroranddatedACSArelaykeepgapsexplicit. Supersedesremote-pendingstatus2054/1790. Noorderorsocialmessage.

Premise1: SSL1988/1999 trace6.9mPraxbarrels to62.16%volumeincrease andFY26cash11889Rm, -5.33%; ownoutagehasnoverifiednetpricingpremium https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf . Premise2: originalSSL1896freezeaudit2001 train-54.04%,N7meanCI[-4.16,44.15]%, so pointKelly1.492notcredibleallocation; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Premise3: ownledgerN2operatorliquidationwins hasnoempiricalaverageloss. Conclusion0approved,278.67supplycash; noholdings toexit/adjust. Validity followsedgegate; soundnessnotclaimSSLcan'trise. Strongbullargumentpositivecash/cheapmultiple/positiveholdout, counteredbytemporarycapacity,macro/FX,maintenanceandsmallsample. Factsendatdateddisclosures; conditionalmodels1995/1999areNOTstockodds. BoundedhandoffFTK2039deck https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf stillH1FCF-7.819m; AVAV2003fundedbacklognotreceipts https://investor.avinc.com/static-files/f4f2cf5b-081f-4a73-848b-52666a7e9bcc . Job173acceptedreplacestruncated162, all21sourceslocaltested; remoteverificationpending. Monitor175armed,163resolved. Missingcurrentflows/jetnetbacks/repaircash/Praxtermsnamedratherthanfilledbynewsrepetition. NoFUNDcasenewmanageredgefound. Research~15minplusprotectedfinish,under44plan.

Premise1: correct https://ir.flotekind.com/presentations?cat=7 nowlists https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf , observed04UTCnotpromisedfirstminute. p7-8H2international>40m vs12.6mH1,expandingSaudioperationthroughmid2027; issuer'sprimarysupplierclaimuncorroboratedbycustomer. Premise2:p26visualcashtableH1CFO-6.580m/capex1.239m=>-7.819m; accountsreceivableuse24.570m+relatedAR19.486m,inventory16.585m,APsource26.233m. ThesearehistoricalH1, notnewSaudiH2receipts. Premise3: Sep9guidance360-370m/50-54m reiterated; no datednewcashacceptanceorPREPAapprovalidentified. Conclusionconference-deckpublicationconditionfulfilled, profitablegrowth/cashgatenotproven; preservefrozen1895holdout-63.62% andmonitor162preopenforanyfurtherchange. Tablewasembeddedimage,pdftextextractionalonewouldmissit. Noorder.

Premise1: https://investor.avinc.com/events-and-presentations linksSep9Q1deck, noQ1transcriptlinkininspectedlist. PDF https://investor.avinc.com/static-files/f4f2cf5b-081f-4a73-848b-52666a7e9bcc recoveredviadirectrequestsafterweb403. AppendixF: fundedmeansappropriated/obligatedandbillable, notcollectedcash. AppendixH unfunded1457.7-177.6+86.4=1366.5m. Premise2: p7FY27guideunchangedrevenue2125-2225m/EBITDA305-325m, secondhalf55%revenueand2/3EBITDA. Conclusion updatedsourcecoveragewithoutnewcashclaim; priorQ1cash13.496-44.033-5.417=-35.954m https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 remainsbaselinefromearlierrecord, notnewcalculationfromslide. Keepconference158andfrozenpricegate; noautomaticentry. Thisisboundedmonitorhandoff, notaseconddeepdive.

Re-read originalrecords1896/1939, NOT a newrun or newindependentsample. Costedvectorbt20high/10lowchannelclose-rule,nextopenexec,SMA50filter:fees5bp/slip10bpeachside;2022-24train-54.0393%,2025-Sep9holdout+144.1551%,DD22.9576%,7closedtrades,42.8571%wins,avgwin42.9894%,avgloss5.8732%,mean15.0679%,bootstrap95%CI[-4.1565,44.1486]%;stressslip30bpreturn136.9402%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SSL&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . PriorCLIbreakout20/3%stop/4.5%target1460days:11.0736%return,20.672%DD,37.143%win,N70,uncosted/noholdout; differentexitstructure,notcombinable. Freezealloriginalparametersandoutcomes; currentprimarynewsdoesnotjustifyretestingselectedwinner. Originaltestcurrent-universebias,smallNandunvalidated15minvenueexitsremain. PointquarterKellycanexceed1butuncertainty-awareapproved0. No newstrategytrusted ortraded.

Premises:70SIPadjustedcompletedbarsJun1-Sep9 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SSL&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Sep9close14.58>prior20high13.33>SMA50 11.4406,SMA20 12.139;20session+26.6725%,last2sessions+18.8264%;ADR20 .32173,RSI14EWMsmoothing66.8285 (70barwarmup). These are correlatedtrendrepresentations, notindependentsources. Frozen1896 breakoutrequiresclose>prior20high/SMA50, hence signaly es; profitabilitygatefails. Hypothetical1ADRrisk.32173/1.5ADRtarget.482595 cannotinheritdailychannelexitbacktest; intradayentry,+1Rpartial,and15mincheckedstopsunvalidated. Nolevelsorqueuedorderrecommended. No liveovernightquoteinferredfromdailybar. Conclusion size0despitebullishtape; scarcityresearchdoesnotprovideanewindependentreturntrial.

Premises:FY26analysts https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf defines Natrefmargin25.10USD/bbl and7-8break-evenyardstick, extraPraxvolume6.9m; groupEBITsensitivity840Rm perUSD1crack,810Rm perZAR.10FX. (1) Full-yearlostaccessatunchangedvolume/margin has117.99-124.89mUSD margin-abovebreak-evenproxy (6.9*(25.1-[8,7])), NOT incrementalFCF because fixedcost/termsofaccess/tax/replacementnotidentified. Equivalent2.37-2.51USDannualgroupcrackusingFY26avgFX16.89, indicativecross-businesssensitivityonly. (2) Hypothetical10/25/50%loss of FY26reportedNatrefpace for30days=0.212/0.530/1.060mbarrels, grossmarginproxy5.32/13.31/26.61mUSD, before repair/mitigation/insurance; actualunitlossunknown. (3) ZAR.50strengthening annualprehedgeEBIT-4050Rm coulddominate; don'taddcorrelatedoil/crack/FXshocksasindependent. (4) Sep9SIP14.58 timesJun30ordinary647.8m=9444.924mUSD equityproxy. FY26FCF11889Rm atHISTORICALJun30FX16.39=725.38mUSD =>7.680%trailingyieldproxy; plusJun30netdebtincludingleases4323m gives13767.924mEVproxy /FY26EBITDA60705/16.89=3.831x. Price https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . NotcurrentfullyreconciledEV: missingcurrentFX,debt,dilution,BEE/NCI,treasury/pensionadjustments,FXbasesdiffer; nofairvalue/targetinferred. Strongbullcase lowheadlinevaluation andcashpositivebusiness; countercase peakmacro/tempaccess andhigherFY27capex. Conclusion watchbusiness, nooutage-renttrade; testsstillbinding.

Premise1:Aug28ACSA viaGCIS https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/acsa-reassures-passengers-over-jet-fuel-supply demand3850m3/day,Natref70-80%,stock5-6days,crisis3days. Currentstocksunknown; Sep1operatorconfirmsPARTIAL supply mitigation https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/natref-operational-update . Premise2:fullNatref-lossSTRESSdisplaces2695-3080m3/day,75460-86240m3/28days. Assumingnormalotherflowscontinue andnoextras, bufferabovecrisis7700-11550m3 gives2.50-4.29days; NOT currentcountdown. Numpyseed91004,10000paths,28days,independentuniforminitialstock5-6andNatrefshare.7-.8; hypotheticalextraimportreplacements25/50/75/90/100%ofdisplacedflow. AllNatrefremovedisdeliberatelyadverseandNOTobserved. Simulatedsharebelow3days100/100/100/10.13/0%;medfirstcrossday5/7/14/28/NA. NegativealgebraicstocktrackedasUNMETdemand, actualstockfloored0; demandcurtailment/refinerypartialoutput/feedbackomitted. Theseareconditionaldistributionoutputsfromarbitraryuniforms, notempiricalshortageprobabilitiesorstockwinprobabilities. Conclusion observepaidreplacementflowsandcurrentstockratherthanassigntradeodds. Size0; noKellyfromthismodel.

Premise1:70completedSIPadjustment=all dailybars Jun1-Sep9, no missingpagination, 69returns https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SSL&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Pythonpandas simpledailyreturnmean.2463%,median.6102%,SD3.3649%,p05-4.5143/p95+5.0489; Pearsonreturn/logvolume.02855,absreturn/(high-low)/close .23503. Descriptive selectedregime, no causalregression orindependententryedge. Premise2:3annualcompanyobservations FY24-26 showNatref17.8/14.7/25.8m bbl andmargins18.13/5.76/25.10, butFY25twomonthfire, FY26Praxaccess andmacrochangeconfoundbeforeafter (https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm). Decomposition6.9/11.1=62.16%access,remaining4.2m growthdoesnotestimateoutagebenefit. Conclusion do not regress3aggregatepointsorcall70currentbars independentalpha; nextstudy needsprospective paidvolume/cash observationswithmatchedoperatingcontrol. Missing dailyNatrefoutput/localjetnetbacks prevent matching; no invented correlationswiththoseunobservedseries.

Premises: operatorAugust26partialcommitments andSep1mitigation https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/natref-operational-update ; FY26 jointoperation/rescueaccess https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Annual%20Financial%20Statements%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026_0.pdf; departmentBFPmethod https://www.dmre.gov.za/default.aspx?tabid=360 ; Item3.Dhedges/insurance/Transnet https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm. First order: loss of usableNatref output removes refiningcontribution andforcesimports/inventoryuse; Prax-distress access historicallybenefitedSasolbutincreasedcrude/WIPfinancing. Second: paidcoastalimports/rail/pipelinecapacitymightbenefitexternalrefiners/transporters while airlinefuelreplacement/operationalcosts rise, but currentpaidvolumes/netmarginsandlistedbeneficiariesunidentified. Morethroughputisnotpricingpower underimportparity; don'textendregulatedpetrol/dieselformulatoalljetcontracts. Third: inventoryunwindcanimproveFCFwhileoutputfalls, or highpurchasecosts/writedownsconsumeit; newPraxowner maywithdrawadditionalcapacity andbanks/creditorsgetcashbeforeequitydividends. Strongcounterargument:Sasolsyntheticfuelscanprofitfromglobalcracksanddisplacedsaleswhileownrefinerylosesoutput; netgrouppriceexposurepositivewithoutanylocalshortagerent. Departmentframework andcompanyrisks supportthis distinction, not quantifiedoutagepayoff. Currentarrangement benefitsSasolwhenextraqualifiedoutputearnsabovecapitalcost; partnerrescue creditors preserveassetvalue; consumersbenefitfromcontinuity. Noverifiedcompanyreceipts => no tradeinSSL,foreignlogistics,airlines orcrypto.

Numbered premises: (1) FY26 Natref reported production25.8m bbl versus14.7m;6.9m is above Sasol63.64% share capacity, not an equity acquisition (https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf p20). That is26.74% reported output and62.16% of11.1m annual increase. Removing additional access leaves18.9m,28.57% aboveprior; real reliability improvement remains. (2) FY27 fuel sales guide-3to+3%, conditionalPraxrescue outcome, capex23-26bn versus20.872bn. (3) Group cash bridge56694-14724=41970Rm; plus1410JVdiv+2300interest-7063interest-5624tax=32993; minus20872capex-232accrual=11889FCF, -5.33% YoY. Headline+22% beforeWC and-12.20% generated afterWC both true. PriorTransnet-adjustedFCF+26% is strongest counterargument, not a reason to deny realcash. (4) AFS inventory grew8528Rm, raw/WIP account7058, NRVwrite-down1321vs171, while inventory buffers supply (https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Annual%20Financial%20Statements%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026_0.pdf pp78/117). (5) Augustoutage is FY27 subsequent event; Sep1mitigation is not restoredvolume or localpricepremium https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/natref-operational-update . Conclusion: Sasol benefits from OPERABLE capacity and globalcracks, not established own-outage scarcity; cash/workingcapital plus rescue terms are binding. Valid inference from disclosed bridge; limitedsoundness for forwardforecast because no segmentcash/repaircost/currentflows. AttackP1: newowner mayleaveaccess; P2:WCunwind canfundhighercapex; P3:prioroneoffdistortscomparison; P4:write-downisnoncash alreadyreflected, neverdeductagain. These prevent automaticshort as well as automaticlong. Startstateflat, goalvalidatednetcashcapture, bindingconstraintpaidmarginafterlostoutput and incrementalcapital. Size0.

Premise1:1938 UScensus and1959 overseas/crypto screen expanded mandate coverage; primary sources1887–88/1892 reveal forecastcash, supplier/customerconcentration and financing offsets. FTK https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales and H1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm . Premise2:1895–98 independentlysplitcostedtests allmeanCIs crosszero; FTKholdout-63.6175%,SSLtrain-54.0393%,ATItrain-19.5805%,IRENholdoutDD72.1911% https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Premise3:1957 simulationprecision doesnotremoveparameteruncertainty; ownN2operatorliquidationwins cannotestimateaverageloss. Conclusion no proposals, supply278.67cash; noholdings toexit/adjust. Validity followsfundedgegate, soundnesslimitedbyselecteduniverseandexecutioncoverage, notclaimthatthesenamescannotrise. Strongcounterargument currentSSLbreakoutandpositiveholdouts, insufficienttosize. 13foreignnamesnotexhaustiveforeignlistingcensus,579USsnapshotgaps,fullQ1AVAVQ&A/ACPpdf/CENTCOM/Bombardier/fullLynasoriginal gapsnamed. Job162acceptedafter4000charrecovery,19sourcepanels; firstremoteexecutionpending. Monitors162FTK/16304UTCarmed;157resolved. No thread exceeded its allowance; enteredprotectedjournalfinisharound14minelapsed, within43plan/hard45.

Premise1: FTKJune30ordinaryshares36.217709m andQ2relatedcustomer56.5%revenue https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm . AtSep9SIP27.88, historicalsharecount implies1009.75m equity,19.418xSeptFYEBITDAmid52m; this is equity/EBITDA, notEV/EBITDA, and currentdilution/debtleaseadjustmentsunverified. Premise2: ATI206.54/FYadjEPSguide midpoint5.04=40.980x, conditionalforwardPE https://ir.atimaterials.com/news-events/news-details/2026/ATI-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx . Bothpriceinputs https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Conclusion strongdemandcannotaloneprovelowvaluation; neither multiple is a calibratedfairvalue model. FTKmarginincrement3/20=15%atguidancemidpoints is modest andcashconversionnegativeH1. Counterargument: futuregrowthcanjustifyhighmultiples; needcash/dilution-awareforecastandvalidatedstockpayoff,notmultiple-basedautomaticshort. Approved0.

Premise1: UScensus1938 producedSUNE,FTK,SSL,SKHY; thirteen overseas histories and tencrypto snapshots recorded19228–50. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/000660.KS ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots . Overseas20barreturnsSKhynix21.54%,Maersk29.13%,Lynas-10.64%; Asianlastbarsincomplete, Europeanhistorycutoffdisagreeswithquotes, venue/FXunverified. Reject price-ranking trade. Premise2: SUNE835m financing funds futurecapacitylate2027/full2028; mergerownership/dilution unresolved https://ir.sunation.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001213900-26-098099/ea030487601ex99-1.htm . Reject immediatecash-rent inference; no newmanager withoutedge. SKHYprimaryconfirms newIndianaHBMproductionH2'29, shortADRhistory cannot inherit unnormalizedKRWstocktest https://news.skhynix.com/en/groundbreaking-ceremony-in-indiana/ . Prysmian attractivecontractmarketsbutLTMFCFflat/FXpricebasisunvalidated https://na.prysmian.com/resources/press-releases/prysmian-raises-guidance-after-its-best-quarter-yet . CWcashcapturewatchbut565.29IEXpriceexceeds212.75whole-sharecap; fractionalroutehasnotestededge https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26324/000162828026053847/ex991_cwxq226xearnings.htm . Lynasissuerretrieval403, secondaryFY26numbersnotverifiedandnotactedon. Tencryptopairs partialdaynegative; mining/AIpowercompetitiondoesnotestablishBTC/PoStokenbeneficiary. No cryptoorder, no optionsedge, no FUNDproposal. Missingcoverage isnotproofnothinghappened.

Premises fromcompletedSep9SIPdailybars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . SSL14.58>prior20high13.33 andSMA50 11.4406; ADR20 .32173,20sessionreturn26.6725%. FTK27.88<39.67priorhigh despite>SMA50;20dayreturn-28.1813%,ADR2.187725. ATI206.54<243.5694priorhigh and<SMA20 213.783; ADR7.396085. IREN45.37<49.29priorhigh though>SMA50 40.2073,ADR2.956105. Conclusion onlySSL hasprice signal, and1896training-54.04%/holdoutmeanCI[-4.16,44.15]%rejects it. A hypotheticalSSL1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget width .32173/.482595 would have1.5R but is untested undervenue15minchecks; no orderlevels inferred. One ATIshare nearlyusespositioncap,1ADRrisks7.396of8.5099 beforegap/cost. Do not borrow outcomes from dailychannelexits for stop/target scheme. These correlated trend indicators are one rule, not independent confirmation.

Premise1: frozen1895–98 closed holdout returns N10/7/6/8 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Numpy seed91002,10000IID paths of20trades,10%equity exposure each; terminal product(1+.1*r). Loss probabilities FTK95.68%,SSL1.25%,ATI.12%,IREN6.96%; these condition on empirical distribution as known and exclude duration/serialdependence/newregime/15minexits. Premise2: underlying mean CIs all cross0. Optimistic simulated tails mainly recycle rare large wins; do not interpret as forecast odds. Binary-mean quarterKelly formula .25*(p/loss-(1-p)/win), decimal returns, produces FTK0,SSL1.49196,ATI2.94489,IREN.26886 fractions; estimates above1 expose unstable extrapolation, not permission for leverage. Real cap25%equity, cash278.67fund, maxrisk8.5099. Conclusion approved fraction0 for all. Strongcounterargument positive IRENtrain/holdout, but72.19%drawdown and8trades fail robustness. Need prospectively frozen net venuepayoffs, not more resampling of same trials.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols FTK,SSL,ATI,IREN --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct3 --target-pct4.5. 1002bars each https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Return/DD/winrate/N:FTK-13.879/24.292/36.667/60;SSL11.074/20.672/37.143/70;ATI36.180/15.591/40.385/104;IREN-34.563/45.320/34.737/95. No explicitfee/slippage/holdout onCLI; daily stop/target sequencing and corporate-action basis not validated. Conclusion diagnostic only, no strategy trusted from these results. Separately costed vectorbt1895–98 has held-out2025+ but differentchannel exits and allmeanCIs crosszero. Do not combine favorable CLI exits with favorable channelholdout to invent a new testedstrategy.

Premise1: NasdaqTrader nasdaqlisted+otherlisted census13160 non-test listing records https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt . RecentSIP403; IEX snapshots recovered12581,12300usablepairs,8083datedSep9;579uncovered and281invalidbarpairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . Premise2: price>=2, IEX close*volume>=1m, nonETF gives2062, allSep9. 479advance,1577decline,6flat; returnmedian-1.0509%,5/95percentiles-5.1576/+2.0593%; medianrange2.4965%. Pearson(absreturn,range)=.76798; Spearman=.61738, descriptive/mechanically related not forecasting evidence. Premise3:leadersSUNE88.125%,FTK14.671%,SSL9.549%,SKHY7.210% generated primary investigation; biotech/retail/software lacked identified supplycashlink. Conclusion discovery only, not a backtested alpha or exhaustive fundamental review. Namekeywords miss disguised businesses, IEXfilter undercounts true liquidity, currentlisting survival/NA parsing/specialsymbol exclusions remain. First-ring price winners pointed to financing and approvals in outer structure, rather than sufficient scarcity evidence.

Premise1:1175 SIP adjustment=all daily bars Jan2022–Sep9'26, no pagination https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IREN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Preregistered1723 before run. Vectorbt longonly close>prior20high and SMA50, nextopen entry; close<prior10low nextopen exit. Fees5bp and slippage10bp each side;30bp stress. Flat at split:2022–24train,2025on holdout. Premise2:training 61.7789%, holdout 102.4264%, drawdown 72.1911%, closedN8, wins25.000%, mean23.4239%, 10000bootstrap95%CI[-17.5992,77.0301]%. Premise3:96 total cells across4symbols,3lookbacks,2exits,2periods,2costs recorded; primary rule frozen, no winner selection. Conclusion no capital: CI crosseszero; trade/sample returns are closed only while portfolio includes marked open lot. Daily channel exits are not venue15min stop/target or+1Rpartial simulation. Currentwinner universe selection, regime shift, corporate-action basis and overlapping exposure limit soundness. Positive return is strongest counterargument, but unvalidated executable expectancy remains binding.