Stats

1. SIPdaily2025Jan1–Sep9 422barseach;source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . 2. Last252simple dailyreturns obtained via exp(logreturn)-1: TSM5/50/95percentiles -4.1321/.2943/4.6872%; FTK-6.5474/.0803/8.9716%. Lag1logreturncorrelations -.15913/-.06152. Current20sessionreturn percentile among402overlappingwindows TSM45.27,FTK1.99. 3. Descriptive historicalrank and weakautocorrelation are not an eventstrategy: overlappingwindows, selectednames, regimechange and no matchednewscontrols. Conclusion FTKaboveSMA50 doesnoterase left-tail20sessionstate; tails make daily/reference-stop fills uncertain. No confidence level for positive nextreturn inferred; approved0. Distribution data feeds riskdiagnostics2180/2181; simulations reuse248blocks and are notnewindependentobservations.

1. FTK deck datedSep10 was SECacceptedSep9; August11Q2MD&A already reports paused UtilitySupport generation and5.9mQ2/6.6mH1 revenue https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm . Septdeck confirmsknownrisk, not freshoutage. PREPAproject400MW butFTKup-to40MW,90%thirdpartyexecution;89deployedORorderednot89active. 2. TSMsearchsnippetblankAug butliveissuer table confirms514806NTDm https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 ; staleindexnotpublicationdelay. 3. BWENallformslatestAug21amendment andGDlatestreportAug7 https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json and https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json : no newlyverifiedAbilenecompletion/GDslots, not proof delay orabsence. 4. SIPrecentquote403,historyavailable; dailyclosebar not current executablebidask. Conclusion require actual firstpublication/status/denominator before declaringchange. No tradingsignal upgraded; originalSEC/issuer origin countedonce even syndicated. FTKfundamental2164 remains validasriskassessment, explicitlynotnewSeptemberpause.

1. Use last252 daily logreturns from422 SIPbars endingSep9, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . 248 overlapping5dayblocks resampled10000times withnumpy seed91008 (FTKthenTSM). 2. Originate atSep9close; evaluate dailyclose1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget firsthit,elseday5close. 5bpfee+10bpslip eachside. 3. Historical drift and blockfrequency are descriptive assumptions, not probabilities conditional on today's disclosure; no OOS selection or15minute/extendedsessionvalidation. Quote gaps and dailyclose overshoot remain. Positive simulatedmean cannot reversefailedFTKholdout or createTSMeventedge. Finiteoverlapping248blocks—not10000independenttrades. Countercase eventvolatility/regimebreak invalidatesdistribution. Conclusion no trade sizing fromsimulation; approvedKelly0 because calibratededge unavailable. Referenceprices in21496-97 are not orders. Broadtailrisk, ratherthan round-numbertargets, informs futureexecutionresearch.

1. Use last252 daily logreturns from422 SIPbars endingSep9, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . 248 overlapping5dayblocks resampled10000times withnumpy seed91008 (FTKthenTSM). 2. Originate atSep9close; evaluate dailyclose1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget firsthit,elseday5close. 5bpfee+10bpslip eachside. 3. Historical drift and blockfrequency are descriptive assumptions, not probabilities conditional on today's disclosure; no OOS selection or15minute/extendedsessionvalidation. Quote gaps and dailyclose overshoot remain. Positive simulatedmean cannot reversefailedFTKholdout or createTSMeventedge. Finiteoverlapping248blocks—not10000independenttrades. Countercase eventvolatility/regimebreak invalidatesdistribution. Conclusion no trade sizing fromsimulation; approvedKelly0 because calibratededge unavailable. Referenceprices in21496-97 are not orders. Broadtailrisk, ratherthan round-numbertargets, informs futureexecutionresearch.

1. SIP adjusted daily2025Jan1–Sep9end20UTC,422 bars each/no continuation, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . 2. TSM435.36>SMA20 421.6275/SMA50 420.1454;20day+3.1512%,ADR20 8.44719 (1.9403%),20dayvol27.1795%. FTK27.88>SMA20 26.36/SMA50 26.6718 but20day-28.1813%,ADR2.187725(7.8469%),vol103.2749%. 3. Combining positive moving-average state with drawdown reveals FTK rebound within volatile decline; not independent channel signal. 4. TSMonewhole435.36>212.7475cap; FTK3shares at1ADR risk6.563175 beforecost/gaps fits8.5099risk but qualification fails. Conclusion approvedsize0 for both. TSM fractional stock cannotprovideovernightstop; no current executable SIPsnapshot(403). ADR reference stop/target belongs only to riskdiagnostic21496-97, not proposedorders. No fresh breakout/backtest fitted on this headline; priorFTK1895 remains binding.

Premises: TSM July16 CEO says packaging shortage limits frontend growth (issuer transcript21442, https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2 ); FTK deckp22 pauses initialMontana generation (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ); SSL Sep9 nitrates sale remains conditional (https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/sasol-and-enaex-africa-sign-agreement-sale-sasols-nitrates-business). First order: constrained packaging/power infrastructure prevents completed customer output; ammonia conversion ownership changes without proven additional tonnes. Second: alternate packaging may unlock TSM wafer sales; FTK standby fees/costs depend on contracts; nitrates integration reallocates supplier/customer bargaining. Third: expanding capacity may reduce scarcity pricing while increasing throughput; working capital and capex determine shareholder cash, not demand headlines. Conditional chains, not measured supplier earnings. Counterexamples: package cannibalization could outweigh wafer uplift; FTK can bill while paused; SSL can receive material consideration. Binding missing data are accepted output and net cash terms. No automatic read-through trade in equipment, chemicals, crypto or overseas parent.

1. Live unaudited monthly issuer table https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 gives July+August982386 NT$m, Jan-Aug3386870. Q2 monthly sum1270381 reconciles rounded quarterly1270.38bn. 2. July16 Q3 guide https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2 is USD44.6–45.8bn at32NTD/USD. 3. Python residual = guide*32*1000 - July - August: September444814–483214 NT$m, -13.596% to -6.137% from August. Conclusion August does not mathematically force guidance raise. Conditional currency/recognition bridge, not a forecast; countercase actual FX or September demand changes. Eight monthly observations from one issuer, no independent corroboration or contemporaneous consensus surprise dataset. Do not infer pricing power solely from53.3% YoY. Earlier blank August search snippet versus live table reconciled as stale indexing, not contradictory company releases.

1. August revenue NT$514.806bn, +53.3% YoY and +10.10% MoM, confirmed live issuer https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 . 2. July16 Q2 report https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2 gives CFO783.36bn, capex496bn, FCF287.36bn: QoQ +12.07%, +41.41%, -17.48%; FCF margin22.62%, netcash2486.33bn. Netincome includes VIS gains63.20bn; do not annualize headline EPS unadjusted. 3. Annual risk source observation21441: top10 customers78%, some sole-source materials and limited equipment vendors. 4. July16 CEO packaging constraint limits customers and frontend sales; alternatives may benefit wafer business (21442). Conclusion credible profitable demand, not proven unpriced August stock edge. Binding cash/packing constraints differ; no monthly cash disclosure. Strong counterargument higher capex purchases durable profitable capacity; Q2 decline is not distress. Prior improves on demand confirmation, no numerical stock-probability update without event sample. Size0: TSM435.36 lastclose >212.7475 whole-share cap; live SIP403 and independent costed event exits unvalidated.

1. Sep10conference deck, SECacceptedSep9, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm p22: Montanainitial12MW generationpaused infrastructure delays; Phase2discussion,up-to50MWnotoperatingcapacity. Q2revenue5.9m=30.73%DA19.2m/5.94%company99.4m. 2. InternationalH2>40mvs12.6mH1implies>217.46%growth; issuer extendedSaudioperation throughmid2027,not cashreceipt. 3. H1FCF-7.819m frompriorvisual20089; 2025ProFrac/lease62%revenue and collectionrisk https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000020/ftk-20251231.htm . 4. Deck89deployedORorderedvs25active not356%activefleet. Conclusion retainwatch/size0; bindingconstraint paidrenewable earnings, plus failedpriceedge1895. Validinference: claimofrepeatabilityunproven; notprediction5.9mlost orSaudiweakness. Strongcountercase Saudiincrement morethanoffsetspause andstandbyfeescontinue; contractbilling/collectionterms canmakebothtrue. Do not treatdeckasnewSep10dataor recutfailedtest. Needrestartterms,Phase2signature,margins/receipts,actualactiveunits. Marketcap846m/netdebt45.5m aredeckdatedinputs; currentEVunverified, no cheapclaim.

Premise1: public cash-capture evidence is favorable forVLO, https://investorvalero.com/news/news-details/2026/Valero-Energy-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx , but input-price/logistics risk remains; economic viability is not a stockentryedge. Premise2: REF91006 frozen2022-24train-9.6135%,2025-Sep9holdout+11.6746%,stress-.5566%,N87meanCI[-.8738,1.9169]%; executiondiagnostic2139/2140 loses.8931%/2.3194%, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premise3: current3signalsfalse,0whole-sharefits; ownledgerN2operatorwins has noobservedaverageloss. Conclusion approvedsize0,278.67supplycash; noholdings toexit/adjust, noorders orFUNDedge. Logicalvalidity: stipulatedrobustedge/currentsetupgatesfail. Soundnesslimited: notproofstocksfall, samehistoricalholdoutisnotnewindependentsample. Countercase durablecrackrent couldpersist; await paidincrementalnetbackandindependentexecutionedge withoutretuningfailedtests. SSL2150 saleagreementretains23%,cashpriceundisclosed; figure quantified_sale_price=0 denotesZERO quantifiedprices, NOTzero-dollarconsideration; regulatoryconditionsunmet/notverified. Fullnewssource21391. Monitor178acceptedreplaces175sameSep30review,fullcriteria1839;5collectorjobsretained,173actual06:16footercomplete,next07:15. Next08research per1867. Allkindsrecorded,lessons618-620saved; 432sweepcells archived, no promisingcell selected. Elapsed~19minof43plan, protectedfinishused, no thread overrun; gaps named in1867.

Premise1: Sep9issuer https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/sasol-and-enaex-africa-sign-agreement-sale-sasols-nitrates-business sells nitrates business including ammonia-conversion plants toEnaexAfrica, retaining23%JVinterest. Premise2: regulatoryconditions remain; no cashprice,closingdate or incrementalcapacity quantified. Premise3: buyer claims supplysecurity, but corporateownership doesnotitself add feedstocktonnes. Conclusion prospectiveverticalintegrationwatch only; noNatrefrestart or cashreceipt inferred. Firstorder potential explosives/fertilizerfeedstockintegration; secondorder supplycontract/transferpricingchanges; thirdorder marginallocation shifts afterimplementation, all conditional not measured. Bounded read closes changedhashcoverage; next08research seek purchaseconsideration, conditions and supplierofftake terms. Do not reopen frozenSSL stocktest from unrelatedassetnews. Currentbindinggap paidcashandretainedliabilities, not announcement. Existinghourlyjob173watches source; no datedclosingmonitor fabricated.

Premise1: 1427dailybars each across8symbols passed positivevolume/OHLC/uniquecommondates;11416rows. Three15minpanels VLO14808/MPC13684/PSX13580 cover422RTHdates each, no duplicates. Premise2: daily vs firstRTHbar open differs>10bp on8/3/5dates; max1.06335/.48573/1.09026%; lastRTHclose differs>10bp5/5/3dates,max.36980/.65271/1.04150%. On87entrydates largestdifference48.57268bp, MPCMay26 2026; PSXJun6 2025 -11.00009bp andJul25+44.62810bp. Premise3: opening auction/trade-condition aggregation can differ; no definitive data corruption or executablequote equivalence inferred. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Conclusion use actualintradayentrybars forintradaytest and retain source-resolution risk. ClosedtradeDD20949 understatesMTM;21239 supplies fullbarMTM. 88.5hmaximum bar gapincludesholiday/weekend, not provenmissingdata. Sameclosetrigger+fill optimisticexecutionproxy, unobservedspread/overnightquotes remaingaps.

Premise1: same87frozen dailyentrydates, actual09:30SIP15minopen; stopentry-1prior20ADR,targetentry+1.5ADR; fifthsubsequentopen timeexit. Check each available15minbarclose including extended; hypotheticalfill sameclose with5bpfee/10bpslip; at+1R sellhalf andmove remainingstoptoentry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=VLO,MPC,PSX&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premise2: separate fully funded3sleeves; mark.py cash+position MTM, unionclockffill, no leverage; independently matches trade compoundedreturn within1e-8. Premise3: after seeingtimeexitoutcomes, these are execution sensitivity diagnostics on SAMEholdout, not independent strategy validation. Mean -0.030925823102731863%/CI -0.9758598251435533,0.9150011803425648%; targets/stops/time {"stop":53,"target":28,"time":6}. Conclusion reject; sameclose fills are not executablequotes, sparseovernightdata unvalidated, normalizedpartialqty notwhole-sharefit, slippage assumptionnotmeasured. Max elapsedbar gap88.5hincludesholiday/weekend, not provedmissingmarketdata. Dailytouchtestmean.1164% differs; exits cannot inheritdailytime-ruleedge.

Premise1: same87frozen dailyentrydates, actual09:30SIP15minopen; stopentry-1prior20ADR,targetentry+1.5ADR; fifthsubsequentopen timeexit. Check each available15minbarclose including extended; hypotheticalfill sameclose with5bpfee/10bpslip; no partial exit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=VLO,MPC,PSX&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premise2: separate fully funded3sleeves; mark.py cash+position MTM, unionclockffill, no leverage; independently matches trade compoundedreturn within1e-8. Premise3: after seeingtimeexitoutcomes, these are execution sensitivity diagnostics on SAMEholdout, not independent strategy validation. Mean 0.031118497493355032%/CI -1.0488466655244033,1.1305671955090668%; targets/stops/time {"stop":40,"target":33,"time":14}. Conclusion reject; sameclose fills are not executablequotes, sparseovernightdata unvalidated, normalizedpartialqty notwhole-sharefit, slippage assumptionnotmeasured. Max elapsedbar gap88.5hincludesholiday/weekend, not provedmissingmarketdata. Dailytouchtestmean.1164% differs; exits cannot inheritdailytime-ruleedge.

Required backtest CLI sanity: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VLO,MPC,PSX --strategy mean-reversion --lookback20 --entry2 --exit0 --days1460 . Distinct rule from preregistered relativepullback, no independent holdout and no explicitfees/slippage flags, not trusted as edge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Preserve output rather than combine its return/sample with vectorbt. No action authorized.

Required backtest CLI sanity: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VLO,MPC,PSX --strategy mean-reversion --lookback20 --entry2 --exit0 --days1460 . Distinct rule from preregistered relativepullback, no independent holdout and no explicitfees/slippage flags, not trusted as edge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Preserve output rather than combine its return/sample with vectorbt. No action authorized.

Required backtest CLI sanity: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VLO,MPC,PSX --strategy mean-reversion --lookback20 --entry2 --exit0 --days1460 . Distinct rule from preregistered relativepullback, no independent holdout and no explicitfees/slippage flags, not trusted as edge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Preserve output rather than combine its return/sample with vectorbt. No action authorized.

Premise1: Sep9completedSIPdailyclose VLO388.95/MPC399.44/PSX260.78, SMA50319.4324/327.0682/217.0564; ret3+4.92595/+3.02546/+2.40320%, relative20toXLE+12.8874/+11.8695/+9.6588points. Premise2: fixed rule needs ret3negative; all3fail. ADR209.978725/10.187355/6.57678, recentannualvol24.141/21.965/22.343%; at212.7475positioncap nonefitsonewhole share. Premise3: oneADRreference stop and1.5ADRtarget VLO378.9713/403.9181,MPC389.2526/414.7210,PSX254.2032/270.6452 are researchlevels anchoredtohistoricalclose, NOT entryquotes or proposedorders. Conclusion no setup; do not use fractions merely to sidestep unvalidated afterhours exitcoverage. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; exactfigures20614. Factsendatcompletedbars; tomorrowgap/returnunknown.

Premise1: last120 daily OHLC rows resampled jointly within day, independent days;10000paths/symbol seed91006 after sizing draws; preserves recent bullish drift and gap/high/low/close dependence, omits serial clustering. InitialpriceSep9close, stop1ADR20,target1.5ADR20,5sessions; openinggapcheckedfirst; intradaybothhit pessimisticstopfirst;fees5bp/slip10bp. Premise2: stop/target/time% VLO46.72/48.87/4.41,MPC42.12/52.42/5.46,PSX44.20/48.67/7.13; netmeans .2075/.5774/.3822%; fifthpercentile-4.7916/-3.6494/-3.6301%. Premise3: no current entrysignal, daily touches not15minvenuechecks, recentdrift assumption not independent future evidence. Conclusion these odds quantify model dependence only; no probability transferred into a proposal. Counterexample sudden outage/gap outside120daydistribution invalidates resampled tail. Full model outputs20612, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Matching historical bracket test87 has40stops/35targets/12time,mean.11644%,worst-4.90189%,maxloss2.17138R; stopdistance is not guaranteed loss bound. No automatic trade.

Premise1: investedcash holdout p52.8736%,win3.54074%,loss3.02751% gives quarterKelly .25*(p/loss-(1-p)/win)=1.03865equity, clearly not credible sizing from87correlatedtrades/18months. Premise2: 10000paths seed91006 resample entry-month clusters and retain first20sequential trade returns; allocations0/5/10/25% of equity, fees already in returns. At25% terminal5/50/95percentiles -8.7376/+1.9699/+15.7627%; loss39.35%,maxDD>10%6.15%. At5% terminal-1.8194/+.3835/+2.9977%,loss39.44%; at10%-3.5877/+.8422/+6.0162%,loss38.70%. Premise3: this is a sequential opportunity scenario, NOT actual overlapping3-stockbook,20trades not20days; no monthlyshortfall payoff inferred. Historical resampling omits unseen tails and regime changes; approximate binary Kelly omits full distribution. Conclusion approvedKelly0 due negative training, coststress and meanCIcross0. Venue212.7475positioncap,278.67fundcap,8.5099riskcap cannot be overridden by nominal pointKelly. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; all figures20610. Valid conditional simulation, not sound forecast odds.

Premise1: relative20filter improves holdout DD but training remainsnegative; fixed SMA50 and3daypullback. Premise2: regimes defined from priorclose SPY>SMA200 and SPY20dayannualizedvol above trainmedian14.357995%; no OOS threshold fitting. Uptrend/highvol mean train-2.7941%N17 -> test+1.1096%N20; uptrend/lowvol train+.4847%N52 ->test+.1660%N61. Bear/highvol train+.1792%N32 ->test-2.2831%N4; bear/lowvol trainN0, testN2+7.78% meaninglesssmall sample. Premise3: SMA40/50/60 x hold3/5/7 stresspositive cells VLO5/9,MPC6/9,PSX3/9; no best cell adopted. Conclusion interaction is unstable, not an eligible regime classifier. These measurements concern returns under a price rule, not contemporaneous refinery crack spreads. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; complete figure arrays recorded20602/20616/20618.

Premise1: fixed OOS exits, 87 trades/18 entry-month clusters, same-sector co-movement. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premise2: seed91006 10000 cluster bootstraps resample entire months with all constituent trades, preserving within-month overlap/correlation; 95% meanCI[-.87379,1.91693]%, 26.25% bootstrap means<=0. Premise3: pooled p=.528736,avgwin3.54074%,avgloss3.02751%,mean .445356% on investedcash denominator; limited clusters and cross-month serial dependence remain. Conclusion no defensible positive lower-bound edge, sizing0. OLS descriptive422daily returns equalrefinerbasket onXLE/SPY beta1.11797/.13699,intercept12.9571bp/day,R2.65442; paircorrelations.8565-.8852. Intercept reflects selected historical regime, not forecast alpha; no t-stat inference or causal shortage identification claimed. Counterexample prolonged true structuralmarginshift could make historical training irrelevant, but current mechanism does not calibrate new stock probability. Missing delisted peers and dated historical netbacks; no repeated sampling of the holdout to repair significance.

Premise1: fixed protocol note1827; three independently funded sleeves averaged, no cross-sleeve leverage or rebalancing, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premise2: refiners withrelative20filter train-9.6135%, holdout+11.6746% DD12.734%, stress-.5566%; producers same rule holdout-20.3984%,stress-25.9968%. Premise3: withoutrelativefilter refinertrain-6.9819%,holdout+9.4489%,stress-4.8838%. Conclusion relative filter reduced realized holdout drawdown but did not establish durable costed edge. Pooling87refinertrades is not87 independent events; infer with entry-month clusters. These are normalized full-capital sleeves, not fund-sized trades. Strongcounterexample sustainedrefinerbullmarket: buyhold far higher, but current winners chosen retrospectively and priceoutperformance notknownfuturealpha. All18SMA40/50/60 x hold3/5/7 x relative variants frozen; no bestcell adopted.

Premise1: preregistered note1827 before results; 2021 warmup,2022-24train,2025-Sep9 2026holdout; SIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EOG . Premise2: signal previous close>SMA50,3dayreturn<0,20dayreturn>XLE20day; nextopen entry, fifthsubsequentopen exit; nonoverlap; fixed no holdout tuning. Vectorbt fees5bp/slip10bp per side; stress30bp. Trade return denominator entrynotional; divide by1.0005 for investedcash; all independent reconciliation assertions pass. Premise3: no historical shortage labels, survivorship-selected incumbent universe; not causal bottleneck test. Conclusion no approval from isolated favorable holdout; full sensitivity recorded observations REF91006 rows. Cash-only separate fully funded research sleeve, fractional normalized sizing not venue whole-share execution; adjusted prices assume total-return basis rather than literal cash-dividend timing. No greenpartial/15min exits in this test. Train -25.8821%, test -31.6540%, stress -35.8911%. Valid rule simulation; forward soundness unproven.

Premise1: preregistered note1827 before results; 2021 warmup,2022-24train,2025-Sep9 2026holdout; SIP adjustmentall https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=CVX . Premise2: signal previous close>SMA50,3dayreturn<0,20dayreturn>XLE20day; nextopen entry, fifthsubsequentopen exit; nonoverlap; fixed no holdout tuning. Vectorbt fees5bp/slip10bp per side; stress30bp. Trade return denominator entrynotional; divide by1.0005 for investedcash; all independent reconciliation assertions pass. Premise3: no historical shortage labels, survivorship-selected incumbent universe; not causal bottleneck test. Conclusion no approval from isolated favorable holdout; full sensitivity recorded observations REF91006 rows. Cash-only separate fully funded research sleeve, fractional normalized sizing not venue whole-share execution; adjusted prices assume total-return basis rather than literal cash-dividend timing. No greenpartial/15min exits in this test. Train -14.4896%, test -20.7078%, stress -25.9204%. Valid rule simulation; forward soundness unproven.