Stats

Monitor237: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv stillSep4total11868kbpd;ACP https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf Aug34.90h1029transitsunchanged;Sepmaintenance tentative;LPGsignalfalse. 238: https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json latestBWENAug21 8KA; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json GDlatestSep10Form4prior19taxwithheld;nonewoperativecashinstrument. 239:FTKSep9issuerunchangedguidance https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales doesnotverifycollectionorrestart;TSMmonthlydirect403/webnavigationonly => correctionstatusunknownnotunchanged. 240:AVAVissuerstillpointsreplay https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh returns404. Noautomaticentry;oldFTK-63.6175%holdoutnotreopened. Booknofilled/pendingpositionsinusercontext andtradehistory;R/daysheldN/A. Collector200twoactualENDreceipts00:15/01:15verified;02:15receiptnotyetvisibleon02:16query. Newcombinedcollectorlocaltestedbeforevenuechange;recordactualqueuedidandreceiptseparately. Missinginformationkeptunknown;next04UTCspecificbranches.

SIPallSep10daily https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . VIST78.95>prior77.03/SMA67.9826,SWKS84.03>76.54/65.52588,QRVO112.36>105.24/93.0334 => signals true but traininghalfKellyzero for allthree. LPG54.41<55.20,CCJ97.42<107.36,LEU165.87<194.78,ALM16.57<19.12 => entryfalse. SKHY44bars=>50SMAinvalid,notfalse. IllustrativeVIST2ADRrisk5.57638:stop73.37362,target95.67914;LPG3.38055:51.02945/64.55165. Referencecloselevelsnotactualnextopenororders;rangeinvalidationnotfundamentalthesisproof. CandidatepricesandIEXscreenclosesdifferbyfeedandlastprint;nevermixentry/SMAfeed. Fixedtargetsnotvalidated15min+2Rtrailing;rawdividendexecutionLPGgapremains. NoR/daysheldreviewrequiredemptybook;noexitschanged.

Premises from recordedprimaryfundamentals2385/2393/2411/2430 andannualobservations23928-30. (1) Oilrouteconstraints raise deliveredprices -> VISTexportparityandexistingegress cancapturecash -> reinvestment/taxes/customercredit absorbpart -> newpipeline/capacity anddeescalationeroderents. Q2CFO985.1m includes274.2mWCrelease; futurecashmustnotrepeatbenefitbyassumption. Source https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf . (2) Nuclearsecurityincreasesqualifiedsupplydemand -> CCJmustalso buyfuelandLEUfacesinputinflation -> contingentbuildoutfunding/receipts,notbacklogtotals,determinecapture -> newenrichmentcapacityeventuallyreducesscarcity. https://investors.centrusenergy.com/node/21021 . (3) Grid/HBMgrowthraisescableandmemorydemand -> Prysmian/Hynixrealizedmarginsimprove -> supplierLTAs/capex/customerbargaining capupside -> newcapacityrelievesconstraints. https://www.prysmian.com/en/media/press-releases/prysmian-raises-guidance-after-its-best-quarter-yet . (4) RFconsolidation/tungstencommissioningconcentratepotentialqualifiedcapacity -> Apple67%SWKSrevenue/ALMrecoverypayabilitydetermineactualrent -> integrationandworkingcapitalrequirecash -> demandredesign/substitutionorcapacitycanerasepremium. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4127/000000412725000085/swks-20251003.htm ; https://almonty.com/almonty-commences-processing-operations-at-sangdong-mine/ . Chainsareconditionalinferences,notpricedprobabilities. Startcash278.67;goal asymmetricnetpayoff;bindingconstraints validatedentry/normalizedcash/execution,notfundingshortfall. Valid conditionallogic;premises dated/selected,not sufficientforliveallocation. LPGphysicalwaitingcanchargecarrierwithoutpaidfixtureuplift.

1 SWKSFY2510K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4127/000000412725000085/swks-20251003.htm Apple67%revenue/threeAR82%;solesources andcapacityminimums can transferpricingpowertocustomer/supplier. 2 July28 https://investors.skyworksinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/skyworks-delivers-solid-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results Q3revenue935m/GAAPoperating49m,proposedQorvocombinationacquisitiondebt~2bn,dividendsceased,new2bnbuybackauthorizationnotrepurchases. Consolidationmayhelpfuturepricing;notverifiedcurrentRFallocation. Today'sjointSWKS/QRVOpricejump couldreflectdealodds,causenotprovenbydatedoriginal. 3 ALMJuly1 https://almonty.com/almonty-commences-processing-operations-at-sangdong-mine/ reportsprocessinginJune and139700toreatapprox.25%WO3;349.25tcontainedbeforelosses,NOTpaidconcentrate. Recovery,payability,acceptance remainbinding. Rejectnewentry:SWKStrain-33.08%,stressholdout-5.21%;QRVOtrain-17.46%;ALM293barshistorynotmatched2021-24training,close16.57<19.12threshold. Strongcounterargument: mergercouldresetRFprofitability andSangdongcouldbecomevaluablequalifiednonChina supply;prospectivevalidationneeded,nottoday'shistoricaltrendchase.

Prerecorded fixedrule trade samples; numpyseed91102,50000circular2-tradeblock paths,20trades/path. TrainhalfKelly0.09000387533670048 givesUSD76.59239787277875;quarterprobe19.148099468194687. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . HalfKellymedianpathreturn5.759727139651794%/losspathprob6.832000000000001%/95thDD4.028902490808622%. These are conditionalempiricalsimulations,notcalibratedfutureprobabilities;N15,no unseenfat-tail events. One-sharehypothetical30%gaploss16.322999999999997USD=1.9181188968142981%account;notguaranteedmaxloss. Whole-shareallocation54.41 cannot be roundedup fromquarterprobebudget withoutnewpayoffjustification. Currentcombinedentryfalse. Actualallocation0;normal25.5297USDloss/accountposition212.7475caps are ceilings,not recommendations. Funding349.01shortfall excluded.

Prerecorded fixedrule trade samples; numpyseed91102,50000circular2-tradeblock paths,20trades/path. TrainhalfKelly0.04132733473590497 givesUSD35.16914858690777;quarterprobe8.792287146726942. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . HalfKellymedianpathreturn1.1587751663886148%/losspathprob29.326%/95thDD3.043595464073956%. These are conditionalempiricalsimulations,notcalibratedfutureprobabilities;N14,no unseenfat-tail events. One-sharehypothetical30%gaploss29.226USD=3.4343529301166873%account;notguaranteedmaxloss. Whole-shareallocation97.42 cannot be roundedup fromquarterprobebudget withoutnewpayoffjustification. Currentcombinedentryfalse. Actualallocation0;normal25.5297USDloss/accountposition212.7475caps are ceilings,not recommendations. Funding349.01shortfall excluded.

Prerecorded fixedrule trade samples; numpyseed91102,50000circular2-tradeblock paths,20trades/path. TrainhalfKelly0 givesUSD0;quarterprobe0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . HalfKellymedianpathreturn0%/losspathprob0%/95thDD0%. These are conditionalempiricalsimulations,notcalibratedfutureprobabilities;N13,no unseenfat-tail events. One-sharehypothetical30%gaploss23.685USD=2.783228945110988%account;notguaranteedmaxloss. Whole-shareallocation78.95 cannot be roundedup fromquarterprobebudget withoutnewpayoffjustification. TraininghalfKelly0,sozero-riskpathistrivialcashnotproofsafeentry. Actualallocation0;normal25.5297USDloss/accountposition212.7475caps are ceilings,not recommendations. Funding349.01shortfall excluded.

Frozen note2125: close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;2prior20ADRstop/3Rtarget/20sessions exit. SIPall 2021-Sep10,2026; train2021-24/holdout2025onward flatstart. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;stress50bp. Daily OHLC stopfirst/open gaps, explicit longonlyvectorbt event-order replay permits same-day roundtrips;dailyclose mark plusentry/exit marks. Tradecounts and fee-inclusive manualcompounding asserted. Train return48.9822%,N28;test47.4497%,DD23.0965%,win53.33%,N15;stress34.7587%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-1.996,8.429] crosseszero. Frozen current signalfalse;price54.41,threshold55.2. Sensitivity10/40fullyrecorded,notselection. Currentuniverse selection and alreadyseenLPGhistory preventclaimuntouchedout-of-samplealpha. Dailyfixedtargetnot15min/+2Rtrailing validation. Returns exactlymatchprior2349;differentmarking yieldsDD23.0965vsprior23.3388,do not overwritepriorDD or claimimprovedrisk. HalfKellyfromtraining0.09000387533670048;no fundingneedinput.

Frozen note2125: close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;2prior20ADRstop/3Rtarget/20sessions exit. SIPall 2021-Sep10,2026; train2021-24/holdout2025onward flatstart. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LEU&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;stress50bp. Daily OHLC stopfirst/open gaps, explicit longonlyvectorbt event-order replay permits same-day roundtrips;dailyclose mark plusentry/exit marks. Tradecounts and fee-inclusive manualcompounding asserted. Train return-22.4505%,N31;test45.8285%,DD48.5873%,win41.18%,N17;stress31.6873%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-5.944,16.558] crosseszero. Frozen current signalfalse;price165.87,threshold194.78. Sensitivity10/40fullyrecorded,notselection. Currentuniverse selection and alreadyseenLPGhistory preventclaimuntouchedout-of-samplealpha. Dailyfixedtargetnot15min/+2Rtrailing validation. Negative training or absentcurrententry meansnoorder. HalfKellyfromtraining0.01656102816192606;no fundingneedinput.

Frozen note2125: close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;2prior20ADRstop/3Rtarget/20sessions exit. SIPall 2021-Sep10,2026; train2021-24/holdout2025onward flatstart. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CCJ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;stress50bp. Daily OHLC stopfirst/open gaps, explicit longonlyvectorbt event-order replay permits same-day roundtrips;dailyclose mark plusentry/exit marks. Tradecounts and fee-inclusive manualcompounding asserted. Train return10.3548%,N31;test12.4681%,DD34.2959%,win50.00%,N14;stress3.4066%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-4.200,7.872] crosseszero. Frozen current signalfalse;price97.42,threshold107.36. Sensitivity10/40fullyrecorded,notselection. Currentuniverse selection and alreadyseenLPGhistory preventclaimuntouchedout-of-samplealpha. Dailyfixedtargetnot15min/+2Rtrailing validation. Negative training or absentcurrententry meansnoorder. HalfKellyfromtraining0.04132733473590497;no fundingneedinput.

Frozen note2125: close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;2prior20ADRstop/3Rtarget/20sessions exit. SIPall 2021-Sep10,2026; train2021-24/holdout2025onward flatstart. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=VIST&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;stress50bp. Daily OHLC stopfirst/open gaps, explicit longonlyvectorbt event-order replay permits same-day roundtrips;dailyclose mark plusentry/exit marks. Tradecounts and fee-inclusive manualcompounding asserted. Train return-29.4389%,N37;test22.7833%,DD24.7675%,win53.85%,N13;stress13.5700%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-3.721,8.785] crosseszero. Frozen current signaltrue;price78.95,threshold77.03. Sensitivity10/40fullyrecorded,notselection. Currentuniverse selection and alreadyseenLPGhistory preventclaimuntouchedout-of-samplealpha. Dailyfixedtargetnot15min/+2Rtrailing validation. Negative training or absentcurrententry meansnoorder. HalfKellyfromtraining0;no fundingneedinput.

Frozen note2125: close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;2prior20ADRstop/3Rtarget/20sessions exit. SIPall 2021-Sep10,2026; train2021-24/holdout2025onward flatstart. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=QRVO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;stress50bp. Daily OHLC stopfirst/open gaps, explicit longonlyvectorbt event-order replay permits same-day roundtrips;dailyclose mark plusentry/exit marks. Tradecounts and fee-inclusive manualcompounding asserted. Train return-17.4599%,N22;test14.5341%,DD29.1677%,win40.00%,N15;stress4.6761%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-2.784,5.670] crosseszero. Frozen current signaltrue;price112.36,threshold105.24. Sensitivity10/40fullyrecorded,notselection. Currentuniverse selection and alreadyseenLPGhistory preventclaimuntouchedout-of-samplealpha. Dailyfixedtargetnot15min/+2Rtrailing validation. Negative training or absentcurrententry meansnoorder. HalfKellyfromtraining0;no fundingneedinput.

Frozen note2125: close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;2prior20ADRstop/3Rtarget/20sessions exit. SIPall 2021-Sep10,2026; train2021-24/holdout2025onward flatstart. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SWKS&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;stress50bp. Daily OHLC stopfirst/open gaps, explicit longonlyvectorbt event-order replay permits same-day roundtrips;dailyclose mark plusentry/exit marks. Tradecounts and fee-inclusive manualcompounding asserted. Train return-33.0777%,N24;test1.8628%,DD24.2922%,win41.67%,N12;stress-5.2136%. Mean95%bootstrapCI[-4.128,5.858] crosseszero. Frozen current signaltrue;price84.03,threshold76.54. Sensitivity10/40fullyrecorded,notselection. Currentuniverse selection and alreadyseenLPGhistory preventclaimuntouchedout-of-samplealpha. Dailyfixedtargetnot15min/+2Rtrailing validation. Negative training or absentcurrententry meansnoorder. HalfKellyfromtraining0;no fundingneedinput.

1 Prysmian July30 https://www.prysmian.com/en/media/press-releases/prysmian-raises-guidance-after-its-best-quarter-yet Transmission21.2%marginvs17.1% anddigital23.8vs16.8supportcapture;LTMFCF978mvs979mflat,1650-1750mFYguidefuture. 2 CamecoJuly31 https://www.cameco.com/media/news/cameco-reports-2026-second-quarter-results purchased2.8m/delivered7.1m lb;transportandownmineinterruptions complicateuraniumbeta. 3 MicronFY25 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312525000028/mu-20250828.htm Item1A:overhalfrevenue top10customers,limited/solesources for some materials/equipment,exportrestrictions anddata centerconcentration; currentHBMscarcity can transferpartofrentupstream. 4 HynixJuly29primary https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/ reportsQ2revenue79.3187trnKRW/opprofit60.5426trn/cash88trn/netcash69.4trn;preliminary figures,netprofit93.9226trnexceedsrevenue so notannualizedasoperatingearnings. LTAsaround10customers protectvolume butnot infinitepricing. Facts sourcesfinanciallyinterested; no independentrenttimingproof. Conclusion keepPrysmian/Vistacashbridgewatch,nuclearcontracttest,memoryupstreamrisk; frozenforeignequityentryfalse/insufficient. Strongcounterargument: deliveredmarginscancompounddespiteknownheadlines; therefore do not labelrallyfullypricedwithoutvaluation. Uncertainty currentmultiple,normalizedcash,forwardcontracts.

17foreign instruments screened from Yahoo6monthcharts withcurrentUTCdate excluded:14equities valid50dayhistory,0combined20high/SMA50signals;KAP37bars invalid andquote2022 stale. BrentSep9close101.21>prior97.92 has signal buthistoryone session behind latestquote, futures not offered; no translating oilcontractsignal into stock withouttest. Hynix20return23.20% yet1853000<prior1856000;Prysmian126.95<prior131.4 andSMA127.013. Sources perobservations23496-23548 https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ . Crypto9venue pairs asof~02:01: all previous completedUTCday open-close negative;PAXGspread1.1651%,BTC.0161%,ETH.0325%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots . PAXGphysicalgoldlink doesnot establish incremental fabrication scarcity rent; genericBTC/ETH/SOLmomentum belongscrypto and no concrete ASIC/power-to-token captureidentified. Reject purchasingtokens merely because oil/power scarce; rising energycosts can hurtminers. This is descriptivecurrent screen, not backtest or proofnoedgeexists. Regional data timestamps/FXnotcomparable; retainedstaleunknowns.

1 July16 issuer Q2 https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf : oil135427b/d,realized89.4USD/bbl,72%oilvolumeexported,allnetoilrevenuesat exportparity. 2 EBITDA805.2m/70%margin;CFO985.1m benefits274.2m workingcapitalrelease;capex466.8m andinvestmentcash886m includes391.9m Equinortransaction. ReportedFCF99.1m,491m excludingtransaction; subtract WC release from excludingtransaction proxy gives216.8m, not companyFCFdefinition. 3 Netdebt3056.8m,proforma leverage1.25x vs actual1.41x; weak oil or exportrestrictions can reverse uplift. 4 Sep8 https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/UCcll6qdM3wStAUl_Vista-announces66.8MMboeofestimatedP1reservesinBandurriaSurandBajodelToro.pdf adds66.8MMboe acquisition reserves asofDec31,2025,not freshproduction;40.7developed26.1undeveloped;proforma654.9MMboe. Conclusion potential beneficiary outside currentbook; cashcapture stronger than simply backloggedequipment, but untested entry and oil beta remain. Counterexample to prior 'all scarcity rents stay withtankers': efficient exporter can benefit if delivered. Binding constraint exportaccess/netrealization and marginal reinvestment, not undergroundreserves. No order until fixedrule test and sizing.

Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and otherlisted.txt; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . 13,176 non-test unique directory entries,12,584 snapshots,12,305 comparable daily/prior bars;8,228 usable datedSep10. Filter nonETF,price>=3,IEXdaily dollarvolume>=2m,freshSep10 yields1,565;486up,1073down,6flat. Median-0.82038%,5/95pct-5.07313/+2.14157;Spearman(return,volume ratio to previousbar)-.05998. Broad marketweakness, not evidence eachdecline is shortage. IEX not consolidated liquidity; stale/missing bars and securities with special ticker formats not evaluated as liquid. InitialSIP403,then excessive batchrate429; recovered permittedIEX via300symbolbatched1sec spacing. Current-listing survival and daily selection preclude historical screener alpha claims. SWKS+9.84/QRVO+6.79 RF consolidation,VIST+5.68exportenergy selected;ALM-9.63/LEU-8.55 challenge commodityrent narrative. Non-supply top WLTH/CLOV/TYRA rejected for mandate, not priceforecast. Screened directory-wide, not complete all-listing price coverage.

1 Aug5 issuer Q2 https://investors.centrusenergy.com/node/21021 reports SWU selling price +3% versus unit cost +13%, volumes -23%; realized spread pressure contradicts simple shortage beneficiary. 2 $4.5bn backlog includes $3bn contingent LEU/HALEU commitments and roughly $0.8bn Technical Solutions backlog affected by DOE intent not to exercise further options under existing operating contract. New $900m expansion award is distinct. 3 Technical Solutions gross loss $1.7m vs profit$3.2m; consolidated gross profit49.9m vs53.9m despite revenue176.1m vs154.5m. Conclusion watch expansion, reject unconditional buy from backlog headlines. Valid inference is mixed present economics, not that future enrichment cannot profit. Counterexample: prepayments and new expansion funding may improve future cash. Binding constraint funded operational milestones and profitable deliveries; demand alone insufficient. Period Q2endedJune30, source management financially interested, no independent verification yet. No order.

Numberedpremises:1 ledger23023zeroopen/pending/closing, no positions requiring R/horizon or exitreset; twooperatorliquidationwins cannot calibratelosses.2 Newfundamentals2337/physical2338/chain2340 identifyLPG potential captureandcosts.3 Audited2349costedlongonlytrain+48.98%,holdout+47.45%N15,stress+34.76%,positive across10/20/40; traininghalfKelly9.0%equity, strongcounterargumenttocash.4 Technical2365current54.41<priorhigh55.20 so frozenentryfalse; cannot queue a limitbuy to anticipate a close-basedsignal. 15min/+2R trailing,rawdividendstops andprospective evidenceunvalidated, meanCIcrosszero.5 ExistingOESX1321holdout-31.814%N4,FTK1895-63.6175%N10; no newcashproof repairs rules. Conclusion noorders/noexitchanges; retainfundcash278.67. Valid conditionaldecision underfrozenrules, not claimnoedgeexists. Startcash;goal asymmetric net payoff;bindingcurrentconstraint falseLPGentryandexecutionmapping. Hardaccount850.99,positioncap212.7475,normalrisk25.5297 upperlimits. QuartertraininghalfKellyprobe19.15<whole-share54.41; no roundingup without justified sizing. Current hypothesis belongsinsupply, no FUNDproposal. PrimaryURLs in2337-38 and price https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Four02UTCmonitors237-240plusfutureOrion241; preserveexistingfuturemonitors; collectorrenewaltestedbeforechange. No money-need adjustment; expectedmonthlyshortfall349.01 excluded frompayoffs.

Sep10completedSIPall dailybar https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Last54.41>50SMA45.5232, but belowprior20closehigh55.20 by1.431159%;20ADR1.690275,20RV36.0464%annual. Combinedrule requiresboth conditions; positive trendalone doesnottrigger. Illustrative reference at54.41 uses2ADRrisk3.38055,stop51.02945,target64.55165 for3R; not an orderandmustrecompute from actualnextopen ifsignal. Stopbasedonrange is strategyinvalidation, not proof physicalcanal thesisbreak. At+2R requiretrail/atmostquarter policytested15min beforelive. Actualbookempty,daysheld/Rnotapplicable; no stopor targetmoved. MarkdailyOHLC/split-dividend adjustment and intradaymarkinglimitations; missing executablehistory isunknown.

Premises2349costedholdoutN15 cashreturns; independent manualentryfee-inclusivecompounding matchesvectorbtportfolio. numpyseed911,50000iidbootstrap paths of20trades from same15returns. TraininghalfKelly9.00039%equity (p.5,W10.8027%,L6.91355%), quarterprobe2.25010%; holdouthalfKelly13.0303% is diagnostic, not selectedallocation. 9% allocation simulationmedian+5.66527%,lossprob9.146%,95thDD4.58894%;quarterprobe median+1.40506%,95thDD1.16244%. One-share54.41=6.39373%equity simulation95thDD3.27679%. These conditional paths omitserialdependence,future structuralbreaks andfat-tail events absentfromN15; not calibrated20-trade forecast. Fixedhypothetical15%gap costs8.1615USD per share,0.9591%equity, not maxpossibleloss. Quarterprobebudget19.15 cannot buywhole share54.41. Current signalfalse andexecutionunvalidated => actualsize0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; methodsinlocalresearch/lpg_audit.py, measurementsrecorded. No fundingtarget input.

Preregister2088 beforebars. SIPadjustedall2021-Sep10 2026,1428bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Close>prior20closehigh AND SMA50; nextopen;stop2prior20ADR,target3R,20sessions exit. Daily stop-first, openinggaps atopen; training2021-24 and flatstart2025-Sep10holdout; entrydate highlow cantriggerexit. vectorbt longonly portfolios,fees5bp/slip20bp eachside;50bpsstress; all10/20/40cells in observation. Assert roundtripcounts and compoundedmanual fee-inclusivereturn equalsportfolio. Unpublished default-short diagnostic discarded; this replaces it. Frozen20 train+48.9822%,N28;holdout+47.4497%,DD23.3388%,N15;stress+34.7587%. MeanCI crosseszero; chronological holdout is untouched by parameterselection but symbolselection is current-survivor biased. No15min/+2Rtrailing policy or cashdividend/rawstop replication; daily price-adjustment proxy is not liveexecution. Event-marked DD omits intraday equity lows. Current54.41<55.20priorhigh; entryfalse. Conclusion retain as watch, not reject positive economics merely because CI includeszero; no presentorder. Alternative10/40holdouts positive; none selected to replace20. Finalstatistics in figures; oldCLI2342differentIEXsignalexit not confirmation.

Required CLI run: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols LPG --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30.82trades1030bars;return94.52997%,DD11.30342%,win39.02439%,buyhold235.20345%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Inspected /app/agent/dist/backtest/bars.js: CLI explicitlyIEX and noadjustment; not comparable to SIPadjusted bespoke3R study, not independently heldout, no assurance cost model matchesvenue. Treat diagnosticonly, never sizing from this number.

No open thesis is a holding: ledger23023 empty. Conditional chains, not forecasts. LPG: bear unpaid congestion; (1)scarcer slots raise voyage time,(2)owners pay auctions/fuel or reroute,(3)net rates and future fleet supply determine equity benefit; strongbull realizedadjustedincome107.2m, sources23020-21. OESX: bear big buyer retains bargaining; (1)repeatorder,(2)components/receivables financed,(3)competition erodesmargin;23011-12. FTK: bear paused powerand Saudi concentration; (1)chemistryforecast/order,(2)deployment/logistics cashneeded,(3)collectionsor lenderfinancing decidecapture;23016. BWEN: bear shutdownliabilitieseatproceeds;(1)termination,(2)settle residuals,(3)redeploy onlysurpluscash;23014 and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120370/000143774926027061/bwen20260630_10q.htm . AVAV: bear supplierscapture prime margins;(1)parts scarcity,(2)fixedprice overruns,(3)qualification/capex absorbs fundedbacklog;prior2275/current23017, https://investor.avinc.com/node/21396/html . GD: bear threatdoesnottransferorders;(1)policy must takeeffect,(2)customers switch onlycompatible certified aircraft,(3)accepted profitable slots matter;23015. FRO/STNG: bear normalizedroutes/cargodestruction;(1)disruption changesvoyages,(2)term cover may lock rents while spotmeanreverts,(3)newcapacity/reopening compressesfutureearnings; https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ ; https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ (priorverified,notfreshreads). Start278.67cash;goal positive asymmetric net payoff;binding constraint tested executable edge. Cash itself risks missing a genuine cycle, but funding pressure cannot repair failedrules.

Premises observations23009-10. Python computes AugustvsJuly canal-hours+37.50985%,9.52h;transits-2.46445%;arrivals-6.49718%;nontransit difference of averages14.51->23.63h. Sources https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf and https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-26-2026-Monthly-Canal-Operations-Summary-July-2026.pdf .Two months, different vessel mixes; difference ofmeans not mean waiting time for a matched cohort. No regression/correlation causal claim. Julybookings112.27% flags denominator mismatch; neither slots nor cumulative usedbookings equals physical utilization. Conclusion stronger congestion watch, unproven listed-stock rent; no auction-price data. Authority directly observes transits but omits rerouted vessels, rejected cargo and issuer economics. Prior qualitative congestion plausible; this increases confidence in congestion, not numerical stock-win probability. Counterexample weaker arrivals may signal demand destruction while capacity maintenance raises elapsedtime. Hard sustainable36-38dailycapacity is route/mix conditional.