Stats

Frozenentry matches prior20closehigh/SMA50 on adjusted dailybars, nextRTHopen;2ADRrisk converted into entry-vintage raw dollars,3Rtarget/20sessions. Direct SIPsplit15Minbars, sampled eachRTHbaropen (not intrabarhigh/low); after+2R sellquarter/move reststoptoentry atsample, retain3Rtarget. Nochangefromredprice. Fees5/slip20bp eachside;stressslip50. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split ; dividends https://dorianlpg.com/investors/stock-analysts/dividend-history/default.aspx . Issuerexdate eligibility accrued onremainingqty; exdatecash not payment-date reinvestability. Vectorbt eventreplay foradjustedcontrols; rawdividend variant replays synthetic total-economic-value trades and verifiesmanualcompounding, NOT fullsettlementledger. Train2021–24 withSep2020warmup31complete:10.25088%,DD46.61675%,win48.387%,stress-8.32796%. Test2025+:12completed21.73643%,win58.333%,mean2.02234%; stress13.30909%. IncludingAug18rightcensored17daygain yields35.74960%,DD26.04482%,13marks; do not call13completedtrades. Of12completed,0target,6stops,4partial events. Daily adjusted47.45% becomes41.60%with15minchecks,41.88%withmanagement,35.75%raw/dividend; changedexitpaths also change futureentries. Raw training and holdout remain sensitive; 14sessions have<26bars. Noquote,overnight,settlement orlive+2Rimplementation validation. Max3whole shares atcurrentcap; quarterpartialcreatesfractional remainder, so afterhoursliquidationassumption fails. Conclusion watchonly; currententryfalse and no justifiedroundingup ofprobe.

Premises:1 frozen prior20closehigh AND SMA50, nextopen,2prior20ADR stop,3Rtarget,20session maximum; dailyOHLC stopfirst with gaps. SIPall daily source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 Train2021–24, holdout2025–Sep10,2026; vectorbt explicitlongonly event replay, fee5bp/slip20bp eachside, stressslip50. Exact manualcompounding asserted againstvectorbt.3 Prior coldstart (2021 data needs50barwarmup; firsteligibleMar17) reproduces48.98218086%,N28. LoadingSep2020warmup admits Jan5-Feb16-Mar15 losses -7.11/-8.91/-9.62%, gives13.93883013%,N31,DD46.84%, stress-5.39983%.4 Sameholdout47.44972564%,DD23.09653555%,N15 including1forcedcutoff mark; stress34.75874485%. Conclusion: earlier output not arithmetically false, but training depends strongly on data boundary; full-calendar training weakens sizing. Validity: a materiallychanged sample explains difference, not improvedalpha. Soundness: alreadyinspected symbol/history is chronological validation, not untouched selection. Do not choose coldstart afterseeing losses. LastAug18trade17sessions bySep10 ismarked, not completed20dayexit; excludedfromsubsequent exit simulations. Noorders.

query_trades fund=supply returned2closed lots, both operator liquidation September4, not strategy stop/target exits. FRO entry44.49/exit46.182917,STNG79.76/80.36. Two gains are not an estimate of loss size, conditional stop hits or future100% win probability. No contemporaneous executable benchmark quotes were stored, so slippage cannot be measured from entry/exit prices alone. Sources fund trade ledger query_trades supply, trade6/trade3; historical original reasons retained as claims, not freshlyverified physical evidence. Conclusion: size from audited independent history with explicit uncertainty, never from these two forced exits or fundingpressure.

Numbered premises:1 Dorian annual Item1A says canal waiting generally unpaid and toll increases need not pass into charter rates; its Panamax chartered-in ships can use old locks. 2 Helios Pool99% revenue is a distribution structure; no underlying charterer>10%, so it is not single-customer99% risk. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm . Consequences (conditional): first, cargo route constraints increase voyage demand while idling capacity; second, shipowners with usable capacity may collect higher freight, but canal auctions, bunker suppliers and chartered-in vessel owners take part; third, relief, substitution and new capacity can collapse extraordinary earnings before book assets reprice. Strong counterexample: shortages destroy trade volume rather than increase paid ton-miles. Start cash278.67; goal positive net asymmetric stock exposure; binding constraint is robust execution/payoff with current signal, not the funding shortfall. FRO/STNG/LPG should be tested for common return exposure before treating three symbols as diversification.

Premises:1 Aug5 issuer June-quarter release reports TCE75926/day, up from39726, and adjusted earnings107.2m; physical rerouting has produced earnings. 2 Bunker benchmark863/t versus511 and charter-hire22.6m versus10.7m show input owners sharing the rent. 3 Cash342.141m versus327.409m rose14.732m, while current related-party receivables190.449m versus97.038m rose93.411m; this is a collection-timing question, not proof of bad debts. 4 At Sep10close54.41 and June42.782681m shares, indicative marketcap2327.8097m and price/book1.8826; annualizing one exceptional2.52EPS quarter implies5.40x, not normalized value. Source https://www.dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; prices https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Conclusion: cash capture plausible, yet a justified stock target needs durable fixtures and collections. Valid conditional logic; dated exceptional earnings cannot establish future run rate. Counterexample: receivables may convert shortly and earnings need not be paid before price discovery. No purchase from this analysis.

This updates operational references in2542, not its investment decision. Final ledger query04:17: open[], pending[], closing[] for supply; fundcash278.67 per run context. Two prior forced-liquidation wins are not independent stop/target validation. Research completed in about20minutes of44planned/45hard, with journal/report finish work inside the reserved allowance; no research thread overran. Primary physical, fundamental, statistical, technical, consequence, backtest and simulation analyses recorded2487/2510/2511/2513/2514/2521/2522/2531/2532/2537/2538/2542. Lessons754–756 and760. Actual job21204:15 remote run exited0 but savedoutput length2000 cut off laterpanels; acceptance was not sufficient evidence of visibility. Cancelled212 and replaced with plain readable script214,3412characters before minor trailing-slash fix, daily20runs,90secondlimit. Local test1353bytes includes all10taskstatuses andEND; firstremote214receipt stillpending, so do not claim it ran. Preserves previous73 eightIEXsymbols, UAMY/LRV/EGA/BWEN; adds fourSIPaluminumnames,IAIandCSTM/KALU/CENXfilings. Monitor267 superseded by26906UTC retaining bothresearchbranches andnewID. Other activejobs18/36/200/204 retained;200actual03:30END verified,204partial2000charreceipt stilla gap. Due251–254 deferred rather than falselyresolved in this singledeepdive. Source recipe https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ and https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production ; full source URLs in earlier analyses andjobscript. No separate fund case or order.

Numbered premises: 1. Primary physical evidence supports a remaining bottleneck: IAI July daily production+0.3753% versus monthly+3.7212%, GCC-43.98%yoy (2514). EGA315/1262 restarted cells is an August26 vintage and Q1recovery forecast, not today's delivered metal. Sources https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production ; https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/ . 2. Cash capture varies: CENX energy/alumina formulas share metal-price upside; CSTM/KALU can pass input costs through and earn conversion/recycling rent, but cash needs and competitor restarts remain (2487/2513). CSTM129m noncashlag is29.38%of439mQ2EBITDA; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1563411/000156341126000190/a2026-q2xearningspressre.htm . 3. All four September10 stocks fail prior20high AND SMA50 entry filter (2511); source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . 4. Frozen new3R downstream tests2521/2522: CSTMtrain-38.61%,holdout+31.78%N15; KALUtrain-14.05%,holdout+47.76%N17; both mean CIs crosszero, stress weakens training, live15min/+2R mapping absent. Existing AA/CENX failures not rewritten. 5. Training sizing2531 gives CSTM0 and KALUquarterprobe$0.375 before stressKelly0, not whole shares. Conclusion: no orders, no exits changed, supplycash278.67 retained. Validity: missing required currententry and supportedpayoff implies no trade under this rule. Soundness: sources establish dated facts, not exhaustive globalabsenceofedge; positive holdouts and actualfabricatorcash are strongest counterargument and justify watching. Goal remains paid asymmetric exposure; binding constraint is investable netpayoff, not accountfundinggap. Collector212 preserves73 plus new IAI/aluminum coverage; monitor26706UTC has both outcomes, no automatic purchase. Gaps recorded2199; no new FUND outside mandate.

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CSTM,KALU --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1500 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex . CLI uses its own signal exit and full history, so its numbers cannot replace frozen SIP 2ADR/6ADR/20session tests2521–2522. No independent holdout or live15minute management in this output. Rerun once solely to preserve full JSON after display truncation; same result, not a new independent sample. Conclusion: diagnostic recorded, no trading inference.

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CSTM,KALU --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1500 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex . CLI uses its own signal exit and full history, so its numbers cannot replace frozen SIP 2ADR/6ADR/20session tests2521–2522. No independent holdout or live15minute management in this output. Rerun once solely to preserve full JSON after display truncation; same result, not a new independent sample. Conclusion: diagnostic recorded, no trading inference.

Observed sources: EGA August12 report gives227 cells as of MondayAugust10, https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/ ; August26 gives315/1262, roughly one week stabilization, https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/ . Implied interval speed88/16=5.5cells/day;947remaining/5.5=172.18days plus7stabilization reachesFebruary21,2027. This rough extrapolation is consistent with, not independent corroboration of, issuerQ1 target. Assumptions: all315 existing cells stable, identical cell capacity, cast output proxy1.6Mt/year from https://media.ega.ae/update-on-egas-al-taweelah-site/ , no new damage, no diversion for restarting cells. NumPy50000paths seed91104; fixed speed perpath triangular3/5.5/8cells/day, arbitrary uncertainty not estimated. Completion days afterAug26 P5/50/95=138.35/178.92/256.53; model81.662% beforeMarch31 is NOT real-world forecast odds. Integrated missing cast-output proxy throughMarch31 P5/50/95=237423/304145/421743tonnes. Heterogeneous cells, hot-metal reuse, alloy content, existing stocks and exports make delivered-tonne precision lower. Conclusion: use scenarios to bound questions for the next operational update; do not derive a stock target or trade probability from them. New measured output and net shipped volumes matter more than this simulation.

Use training payoffs, not favorable holdout, from fixed tests2521–2522; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . CSTM train p=40%, mean win8.4956%, mean loss7.6217% gives clamped halfKelly0. KALU p=41.9355%, win10.7182%, loss7.6758% gives rough halfKelly0.176252% of equity; quarter of that is0.0440631%, or$0.374973 at equity850.99. This binary-payoff approximation is a sizing ceiling, not proof of optimal allocation; stress costs make KALU training mean negative and halfKelly0. Both currently fail entry, so actual allocation0. Whole-share KALU158.42 and stock minimum1 exceed the hypothetical probe; do not round up. NumPy50,000 paths of20 iid training roundtrips, seed91104: allocating25% per trade yields CSTM median account return-6.56%, loss probability73.34%,95th-percentile drawdown22.50%; KALU median-0.98%, loss probability53.40%,95th drawdown19.89%. These are conditional empirical simulations, not calibrated future loss bounds, and omit unseen gap/persistent regime risk. Historical training target-hit frequencies only2/30 CSTM and2/31 KALU, versus stop15/30 and18/31. Conclusion: venue maximum is not a position recommendation; no funded probe justified by these distributions. Funding shortfall does not change odds, target or size.

Preregistered note2178: close above prior20closehigh and SMA50, next session open entry, stop2 prior20ADR, target6ADR (3R), exit20th session close, no overlaps or boundary-crossing trades. Train2020–24; chronological holdout2025–Sep10 2026. SIP alladjusted source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . vectorbt from_orders direction longonly; entry/exit counts and fee-inclusive compounded returns reconciled. Two accounting rows per day are not observed intraday fills; stop-first on conflicts, gaps at open; no ambiguous bars in this sample. Fees10bp plus slippage10bp per side; stress20bp. Train {"symbol":"KALU","lookback":20,"period":"train","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-14.048808275721857,"drawdown_pct":55.15054140326862,"n":31,"win_pct":41.935483870967744,"mean_pct":0.037782042531024046,"avg_win_pct":10.718160567175962,"avg_loss_pct":7.675824669712543,"half_kelly":0.0017625245625975394,"targets":2,"stops":18,"time_exits":11,"ambiguous":0,"block_mean_CI_pct":[-3.7034761041582973,3.7334277526978497]}. Holdout {"symbol":"KALU","lookback":20,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":47.757195511096015,"drawdown_pct":28.952594454141124,"n":17,"win_pct":47.05882352941176,"mean_pct":2.9397191657662316,"avg_win_pct":13.818911217710431,"avg_loss_pct":6.7306737692952785,"half_kelly":0.10636580261108641,"targets":4,"stops":8,"time_exits":5,"ambiguous":0,"block_mean_CI_pct":[-2.181648799186779,7.518684316145904]}. Stress holdout return 42.817883455928765%. Four-trade circular block bootstrap, 10,000 samples seed91104, mean confidence interval crosses zero. L10/L40 neighbors are diagnostics only; all rows recorded, no winning parameter chosen. Test is a generic technical benchmark, not an event-causal test, and the family/regime has already been inspected. It omits live15min exit sampling, +2R gain management, exact dividend cash and executable quotes. Conclusion: research watch only, no current signal and no defensible new allocation. Positive holdout alone cannot fix negative compounded training or support retrospective sizing.

Preregistered note2178: close above prior20closehigh and SMA50, next session open entry, stop2 prior20ADR, target6ADR (3R), exit20th session close, no overlaps or boundary-crossing trades. Train2020–24; chronological holdout2025–Sep10 2026. SIP alladjusted source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . vectorbt from_orders direction longonly; entry/exit counts and fee-inclusive compounded returns reconciled. Two accounting rows per day are not observed intraday fills; stop-first on conflicts, gaps at open; no ambiguous bars in this sample. Fees10bp plus slippage10bp per side; stress20bp. Train {"symbol":"CSTM","lookback":20,"period":"train","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-38.61151000307898,"drawdown_pct":47.11561891853783,"n":30,"win_pct":40,"mean_pct":-1.1747752262880142,"avg_win_pct":8.495596940707726,"avg_loss_pct":7.621690004285176,"half_kelly":0,"targets":2,"stops":15,"time_exits":13,"ambiguous":0,"block_mean_CI_pct":[-5.367075983564136,3.0106106059726225]}. Holdout {"symbol":"CSTM","lookback":20,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":31.783908071503248,"drawdown_pct":19.56254607203325,"n":15,"win_pct":46.666666666666664,"mean_pct":2.320655535863315,"avg_win_pct":11.991223743047435,"avg_loss_pct":6.14109164542279,"half_kelly":0.09676475002014875,"targets":2,"stops":5,"time_exits":8,"ambiguous":0,"block_mean_CI_pct":[-2.497770448188134,7.632229134682402]}. Stress holdout return 27.889096029296635%. Four-trade circular block bootstrap, 10,000 samples seed91104, mean confidence interval crosses zero. L10/L40 neighbors are diagnostics only; all rows recorded, no winning parameter chosen. Test is a generic technical benchmark, not an event-causal test, and the family/regime has already been inspected. It omits live15min exit sampling, +2R gain management, exact dividend cash and executable quotes. Conclusion: research watch only, no current signal and no defensible new allocation. Positive holdout alone cannot fix negative compounded training or support retrospective sizing.

Primary data recovered from the IAI public webpage's own chart API, https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production , linked by https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ . Latest period July2026. June total5939kt over30days=197.966667kt/day; July6160kt over31days=198.709677kt/day. Therefore monthly total+3.721165%, daily rate+0.375321%. GCC June276kt, July293kt gives daily+2.734923%; July2025GCC523kt means -43.977055% year-on-year. Premises:1 daily rate removes calendar length;2 geographical aggregates include other plants, not just EGA;3 IAI includes voluntary company reports and estimates for nonreporters/China, subject to revisions. Its primary definition excludes alloy additions and recycling, so cannot subtract EGA cast-metal tonnes without a conversion bridge. Conclusion: recovery is gradual in this vintage; there is no evidence of a 3.72% increase in daily capacity. Counterexample: producer inventories/export routes may improve deliverability even when global output barely changes. Joint indicator required: normalized production rate plus deliverable inventory plus issuer net cash. LME official stock-summary body did not expose current rows; secondary244525t claims were not treated as verified current deliverable inventory. This is a physical indicator, not a tested stock signal.

Start state: supply fund flat, physical Gulf production impaired, some competitors restarting. Goal: own paid scarcity rents at a favorable stock payoff. Binding constraint is net realized margin after energy, input metal, working capital and recovery, not the global metal headline. First order: interrupted primary production and export routes constrain deliverable metal. EGA's H1 sales -31.61% versus cast production -29.15%, alongside OCF -56.87% despite EBITDA +10.85%, shows operational and cash channels differ. Source https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/ . Second order: CENX's US regional premium exposure can retain value, while LME-linked Iceland power/alumina and Sebree market power share it with suppliers. Fabricators KALU/CSTM can pass metal costs through, benefit from scrap spreads and scarce qualified rolling capacity, but fund higher inventories. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1563411/000156341126000057/cstm-20251231.htm ; https://investors.kaiseraluminum.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/440/kaiser-aluminum-corporation-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-financial-results . End customers face higher invoice prices or delays; allocation and pass-through timing are not measured here. Third order: scrap suppliers can renegotiate, customer substitution can lower demand, and restored primary/rolling capacity can compress premiums. Novelis reports Oswego restarted in June and Bay Minette commissioning, yet June-quarter OCF -455m and adjusted FCF -1.1bn; insurance timing gave an18m net EBITDA benefit from the outage. https://investors.novelis.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1425/novelis-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results . These are conditional consequences, not probabilities. Strong counterargument to pessimism: CSTM ex-lag EBITDA rose87.88% and generated90m quarterlyFCF. Strong counterargument to bullishness: restarts and cash needs can reverse that rent. Conclusion: keep separate primary-metal and conversion-spread watches within supply; no unrelated FUND warranted.

Numbered premises: 1. September 10 completed SIP all-adjusted closes from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all are AA48.30, CENX44.36, CSTM25.99, KALU158.42. 2. Each is below both its prior20 close high (51.85/48.17/29.92/189.49) and SMA50 (48.5086/45.6681/28.4026/166.195). 3. ADR20 is 1.972495/2.333405/0.97824/7.1416, and 20-day returns are -5.70/-7.91/-11.90/-16.40%. RV20 annualized is45.88/42.93/39.99/60.78%. These are adjusted daily measurements, not executable after-hours quotes or stop fills. Conclusion: no breakout entry tonight, even if operating margins are favorable. Counterexample: a falling stock can become undervalued, but this screen does not test a value/reversal entry and cannot authorize one. Stops and targets require an actual future entry plus independently justified payoff; no anticipatory limit is queued. Source observations contain every symbol's numbers.

Method: SIP all-adjusted daily bars, 1,681 per symbol from January 2020 through September 10, 2026; complete pagination, unique timestamps, positive volume and OHLC bounds checked. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . Compare daily log returns in January 2025–March 27, 2026 (309 observations) with March 30–September 10 (114). Post-period cumulative returns: AA -17.01%, CENX -10.65%, CSTM +11.21%, KALU +39.53%. Post-period SPY betas: 1.444, 1.361, 1.969, 1.842 respectively. OLS daily intercepts -0.393%, -0.315%, -0.219%, +0.00005%, with naive standard errors 0.319%, 0.357%, 0.240%, 0.308%; none is compelling evidence of independent excess return. No HAC or causal identification claimed. January 2025 onward correlations AA/CENX 0.673 and CSTM/KALU 0.655 mean a two-stock aluminum sleeve is partly one bet. Premise: a known supply outage coexists with several other price drivers, changing tariffs and company restarts. Counterexample to automatic upstream outperformance: downstream names rose while the smelters fell. Conclusion: reject using outage direction as stock direction. Selection of surviving listed companies, one event, unequal windows, and overlapping industry/market shocks prevent estimating a repeatable scarcity premium from these figures.

Premises:1 EGA Aug26 restarts315/1262 cells,fulloutputforecastQ1 2027 https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/ . H1 issuerreportsdistinctshippingconstraint https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/ ; recoveryofpotsnotrecoveryofexportdeliveries. 2 CENX2025powerterms https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm implySebree15.33MWh/t atcapacity; hypothetical+$500/tpremium is offset at+$32.6158/MWhSebreepower, beforealumina/hedges/othercosts. 450ktUSfullcapacity+$500/t generates225m/y gross; ifonlySebreepower+25/MWh,84.315m/y cost=>140.685m/y or35.171m/quarterbeforeotheroffsets. Neither500premium nor25power moveisforecast. LMEindexedIcelandpower/alumina dampensmetalbeta; Glencore54%salesandlimitedinputsuppliersaddcounterpartyrisk. 3 CENXAug6 https://centuryaluminum.com/insights/century-aluminum-company-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/ :Q3EBITDA335midpointonly2.478%aboveQ2;H1CFO236-capex134.4=101.6m. Sep10SIP44.36 timesJune98.993295mshares=>equityproxy4391.34m,EV4527.94m,3.463xannualizedQ2EBITDA but4.627%annualizedH1FCFyield. Notfairvalue:missesNCI,leases,pensions,currentdilution,taxrefundtiming,cycleandgrowthcapex. 4 Downstreamnotautomaticlosers:CSTM https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1563411/000156341126000190/a2026-q2xearningspressre.htm Q2exlag310mversus165m+87.88%;129/439=29.385%noncashlag;H1FCF95,needs>205H2for>300guide. KALU https://investors.kaiseraluminum.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/440/kaiser-aluminum-corporation-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-financial-results metalpassthroughandconversion437mvs374.2. Conclusion:positiveoperatingrentexists but latestcash/contractevidenceisnecessary. Logicalexistenceofscarcitydoesnotentailpositivestockexpectancy; counterexampleenergypricescanrise, metalpricesreverse,orrollingcapacityrestart. Factsstopatcitedperiods; sensitivityandannualizationareassumptions. StrongcounterargumentcheapCENXmultiple cannotnormalizeearnings byitself.

Numberedpremises:1 finalquery_tradesfund=supplyopen/pending/closingall[];account850.99,fund278.67,poscap212.7475. TwopastforcedwinsN2cannotcalibratelosses(2465). 2 Directory-wideUSscreen2389covered12584/13176snapshots,1565qualifyingfreshnames;foreign2394valid14equitiesnosignal,KAPinvalid;9cryptopairsnophysicalrentedgeidentified. Currentlistingscreenisnotbacktestedfactoralpha. 3 Fundamentals2393/2411/2430/2464:VISThaspaidexportcashbutworkingcapital/oilassumptions;SWKSApple67%;LEUcostgrowth>price;ALMrecoverycashunknown. Sources https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4127/000000412725000085/swks-20251003.htm ; https://investors.centrusenergy.com/node/21021 . 4 Frozenbacktests2417-22 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars : VISTtrain-29.4389%,currententrytruebuttraininghalfKelly0;SWKSstressholdout-5.2136%,QRVOtrain-17.4599%;CCJtrain10.3548/test12.4681/stress3.4066 butsignalfalse;LPGtest47.4497/stress34.7587 but54.41<55.20 and15min/dividendgap. LEUfalseentry/traincompoundnegative;ALM293/SKHY44barscannotmatchhistoricaltraining. 5 Simulations2426-28 cannotjustifyroundingquarterprobe19.15LPG/8.79CCJup to54.41/97.42whole shares;allactualsize0. Conclusion noorders/noexitchanges;cashchosenbecausevalidatedpayoff+currententry+executionnotjointlymet,notproofmarketslackedge. Logicalconditionalvalidity;primaryperiods/smallselectedsampleslimit soundnessofanypositiveforecast. StrongcounterargumentpositiveVISTholdout22.78andcurrentbreakout insufficienttorewritefailedtrainingafterseeingit. Next04UTCmonitors251-254,job204newshortlist+preservedtankers,200existingphysicalpanels. No separatebookcase justified;allcredibleworkfitssupply. Funding349.01shortfall notinput.

query_trades fund=supply readthisrun: ids6/3 bothSep2entries/Sep4operatorliquidation;return3.805163%/.752257%,mean2.27871%,PnL4.977287USD,N2wins100%. No losses and forcedexitconfound original6-8weektheses; cannotestimateaverage loss,stop/targethitfrequencyor reliableKelly. Entrystopnull andnofreshentryquote preventsconsistentR/slippageestimation. No claim100%winrateisedge. Finalopen/pending/closingqueriesall[];noholdinghorizonorreviewexitchanges. Independentcostedbacktestsratherthanthissampleguidesize,subjectselection/periodlimitations.

1 Q2issuer https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf weightedaverageshares108.909959m,EBITDA805.2m,netdebt3056.8m,exdealFCF491m includes274.2mWCrelease. 2 SIPSep10close78.95 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . UsingweightedsharesasaPROXY gives equity8598.44m/EV11655.24m,annualizedQ2EBITDA3220.8m =>3.619x. This isnotverifiedcurrentdilutedmarketcapitalizationor forwardmultiple. 3 Annualized(exdealFCFminusWCrelease)867.2m =>proxyyield10.086%; quarterlynormalizationnotforecast,capex/acquisitions/declinesmayvary. 4 Oilprice-15USD/bbl atconstant135427bpd365days loses741.46m grossannualrevenue;ASSUME60%flowstocashaftercost/taxresponse=>444.88mcashloss,yield4.912%. Actualroyalties/hedges/reinvestmentnotfullymodeled. Conclusion valuationcanlookattractivebutoil/capacity/cashassumptionsdominate;doesnotrepairnegative trainingmean orauthorize95.68target. Hardlimitold144kbpdpipeline+37truckingnotallfungible,andcustomerconcentrationcaninterruptpayment. Factsendatissuer/price;allannualization,shareproxy,constantvolumes,60%flowthroughareexplicitassumptions. Requirescurrentcapitalizationandnormalizedforecastbeforefundamentalpricedtarget.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.

Required command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols VIST,SWKS,CCJ,LEU --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1500 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CLIusesIEX/noexplicitadjustment;1030bars,signalexitsdifferfromcustomfixed20session3R. Notheldout,notadopted,notinterchangeablewithSIPchronologicaltests2417-22. Costs/15minexitnotvenuemapping. Numbersrecordedasdiagnosticonly;noorder.